Cape Scrape

134 Comments

8:40PM

The winter storm that is bringing some rare snow and ice to the Deep South is of an elongated nature and as it slides out well southeast of New England through early Wednesday, the northwestern extent of its snow shield will be over far southeastern New England, bringing up to several inches of snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket. It all gets out of the area during the day Wednesday leaving behind some more cold and dry air which will linger through Thursday.

Slight moderation follows on Friday but an approaching warm front will produce clouds and a slight chance of some very light snow. We will likely bust into the mild air on the other side of that front by Friday night and Saturday as low pressure passes to the north, then swings a cold front harmlessly through the region Saturday night, bringing slightly colder and dry weather for Sunday.

Next week is expected to start dry and chilly with high pressure in control, but low pressure may approach by later Tuesday with clouds arriving ahead of a midweek storm threat. But that storm threat is beyond my comfortable forecasting range at this time, so I am not going to speculate its potential at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops over most of RI and southeastern MA and should back its way northwestward up to about a line from Cape Ann to Boston to the northwest corner of RI. Lows 11-16. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH but a little stronger over Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY: Snow tapers off west to east where it is falling – accumulations from a dusting near Boston to 1-3 inches southeastern MA except 3-6 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 23-28. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 except 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light W.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light snow. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 31.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 34.

134 thoughts on “Cape Scrape”

      1. Oh hot darn. I figured out the instant maps. Now I have to figure how to get a link from my iPad.

        I feel like a grad…..kindergarten but still a grad 🙂

  5. Tk do you know what time the snow should reach boston. Do you think the dry air may stop it from reaching boston or if it does not you feel comfortable with boston just getting a dusting.

  7. Did anybody see the video of Jim Cantore Knee some college kid in the Nuts during alive segment. It was hilarious. The kid tried disrupting the live shot, by charging Cantore. Cantore (while speaking into the camera)promptly gave him a knee to the midsection and he did not even miss a beat while speaking into the camera. True live tv gold. google it if you want to see it

  9. For those who follow the B’s, they have become a goal scoring machine lately. They have already scored 5 tonight giving them 17 goals in 3 games and tonight’s game is not over yet. Perhaps it’s temporary but it sure is different to see this from a team that has really been known for its defense for a couple of years.

    1. I just hope they have enough left in the tank for the Stanley Cup Finals….assuming they make it that far. 😉

      1. They will make it to the playoffs. They have now scored a 6th goal tonight. Their biggest regular season game comes this Thursday against Montreal.

  10. Boston Buoy water temp = 38.7 😀

    I believe this is the first time in awhile that the water temps have gone below 40 during a winter season. A few years perhaps?

  11. I just read the extremely nasty comments over on the WBZ blog…very sad indeed. 🙁

    For me, the jury is still out on Eric, but I am impressed that he answers “legitimate” weather questions from posters. The former chief met Ken Barlow rarely if ever responded. Also, Eric’s blogs have been pretty good so far as well. 🙂

  12. I miss watching Eric on TWC. I think he is a great meteorologist. His blogs are very well written and detailed. BZ is fortunate to have a great meteorologist as part of their weather team.

  13. John… I think Boston proper sees flakes from around 3AM to around 8AM and gets under 1/2 inch.

  14. 2:35AM and traffic around Atlanta and Birmingham is still gridlocked as if it’s evening rush hour. Horrendous situation, brought about not only because those cities cannot handle a storm such as the one they are having, but the fact that our society is so geared toward getting as much done as possible, a good forecast was basically ignored by many bosses and others. And now, people’s lives are in danger. There’s no need for it.

    2. TK very well stated. I absolutely agree. I think the blame has to go to the state officials also. They are saying the storm took them by surprise; that it was badly forecast. We knew well before it hit that it was due to arrive. There were plenty of schools that did cancel so those school heads knew. Why the gov would not have made travel ban mandatory should be questioned.

  16. I’m guessing the Cape must be seeing some decent intensity to the snowfall because Marshfield is under the blue echoes (as opposed to the green) and its snowing fairly steadily.

      1. Yeah I only saw snow where it “built up” on the rubber weather strips on the car windows. That’s it.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    I have been helping my sister pack as she will be moving into her own apt. Not much fun with this very cold weather! So, I have been very busy with that and other family things. Still looking forward to at least one decent snowstorm before the winter is through – I just don’t like the extreme cold weather. But I guess I’ll take that compared to what is going on down South. I agree – ‘though the snow and ice is a rare event down there – they should always be prepared. Paying attention to the weather forecasts and “bettter to be be safe than sorry” and cancelling school, etc. might have eased at least some of the troubles.

  19. Looks to be interesting towards the middle of next week. It seems to me though the the GFS and Euro are off on their timing. I hate looking at the Euro on Wundermaps can anyone confirm this?

  21. Well, the snow made it to Boston. he he
    Very light coating had to be removed from my car this morning as
    flakes were falling on the way to work. 😀

  22. Hmmm
    Re: Next week
    Where is the Euro on all of this?

    Here’s an interesting chart from the Canadian for 2/5,2/6
    Shows about 40MM or 1.57 inches of qpf with a little sleet thrown in.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    Here’s the GFS:

    Not nearly as generous!

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gfs&run=06&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    with the Euro, timing seemed whacked out. Doesn’t have ANYTHING for
    2/5,2/6 but has something the evening of 2/3???????

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=144

      1. If this Canadian ever happens, we’re going to get a Dumping of
        Heavier stuff. None of this FLUFF we’ve been seeing. 😀

  25. H.M is going crazy, He says Feb has potential to be in the top 10 of cold and snow for all february’s. Prepare for anything but. Love his enthusiasm though!

  27. They’re still dealing with quite an emergency situation down south!
    The National Guard is sending military Humvees onto Atlanta’s snarled freeway system in an attempt to move stranded school buses and get food and water to students on them, Gov. Nathan Deal said early Wednesday.

    1. The Atlanta mayor just issued a statement saying it was a mistake to release schools along with everyone else at the same time and just when the snow began to hit. He said he thought so all along.

      Isn’t he the major?

          2. Somehow i started singing the sunrise, sunset song from fiddler on the roof, anyone else have this same reaction…

  31. If anything, February may be remembered for how quiet it is in the North and how stormy it is in the South.

    That said, we DO have a threat of some kind up here in the NE next week, but even though my instinct is telling me watch late Tuesday into Wednesday, I really don’t have a grasp on the situation that far out.

    Hey, at least my “less than 1/2 inch” at Boston this morning verified. 😀

  32. The GFS can’t seem to decide what to give us for 2/5,2/6. 😀 😀

    The 12Z Version now has SHIFTED from a more Southerly solution to one that
    wants to move just North and West of our area:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014012912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=174

    The GFS has gone schizoid on us.

    Snow, Rain, NO Snow, No Rain, No wait a minute SNOW, NO wait let me reconsider,
    SNOW TO RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Give me break.

  35. Agree on the GFS schizo behavior OS, but 12z to 12z that is at least a shift from being a true inside runner.

  37. I stand by my thoughts from yesterday, I think Feb will brings us at least 1 if not 2 major storms. Sure I think many systems will be south but a couple will come up and clobber us.

    1. Agreed. But disagree with HM (among others) on February possibly being an historically cold month. The new pattern that essentially begins this weekend is NOT conducive to severe cold outbreaks. Much more in line with normal temp values, especially across the Northeast. I really do think we’ve had one of our last nights of single digit cold this winter. … Now that I’ve said it, I’ll probably be wrong.

      1. The problem with more normal temps for the northeast is that normal daytime highs are above freezing. If this new pattern sets up like this, i could see us being on the warm side when storms do approach. Good for the mountains though as they need some serious snows to get the ski season in high gear before the big feb vacation weeks hit.

        1. I think you’re right, but keep in mind that normal daytime high averages of, say, 39F in a given week will mean that some days temps will be closer to 32 and others closer to 45. I do see marginal temps factoring in a lot, but that’s fairly typical in February and March at the coast. Ski country is getting almost zilch this season. May be worse than 2012 if you can believe that. It’s been cold, which means snow-making has been a feasible option. But, in terms of natural snow-cover, one look at the snow-cover map will tell you all you need to know. To use one of OS’s words, putrid!

        1. Good points, Coastal and DS: One of the reasons our springs tend to be miserable at times is because of a higher prevalence of cut-off lows, therefore E/NE wind off of comparatively cold water. I’m sure there’s data out there somewhere to confirm this, but the only period during which we tend to have a dominant SE/E/NE wind direction is late March through May (often early June). I can remember plenty of years during which in May we just couldn’t get out of the doldrums of cloudiness, drizzle, and misery for days and sometimes weeks on end. Last year was actually an exception, in that we had a cold spring to be sure, but the prevailing wind was W/NW. I don’t remember many rainy days. In fact, I remember a lot of sunny, beautiful days in the 50s and 60s.

    1. Its out. Looks to me like a stormy wed/thurs of next week, snow to rain to snow scenerio possibly? Its hard to tell. Looks like it wants to drop several inches of snow in boston, possibly 6+. At the end of the run, 10 days out, an ominous area of low pressure lurking off the Delmarva. Is that the big daddy HM was talking about?

  40. I don’t think it’s out far enough into next week, at least not on Wundermaps to see. It does seem like it has abandoned the idea of an early week storm though

      1. agreed…at least there seems to be some alignment going on with the models for once…whether that continues we’ll see.

  42. February comes in like a lion, and goes out like a lamb 🙂
    Bright sunshine but cold temp is 23.2 degrees

      1. It was one of the storms that you just want to hold on to the aftermath in the areas where there was not the destruction. The sad part is there is always destruction. Sitting in the window and watching the fire hydrant disappear and thinking that was it only to keep watching the snow pile on top of that was amazing. We couldn’t open any doors that morning.

        Just looking out at it took your breath away.

    2. I don’t bank on anything like that considering even the day of a storm they can be wrong. Like a few Saturdays ago when “light morning rain” became 4+” of snow that last until night.

  45. ACE I don’t think anything is far fetched for Feb. I really think it will be epic for many eastern locations.

  46. Well, the Euro has come around for next week. NOT talking about the big HM
    storm for the 9th, but rather for the 5th/6th. Canadian still Bullish as well.
    Could be substantial. We shall see.

  47. OS, do you have links for those two models for the 5/6…curious to see how it compares to the GFS?

    1. Here’s the Canadian:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=192

      2 from Euro, you will have to figure track in the middle, but I assure that
      from Wundermap, it’s NICE!

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=168

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=192

      From Wundermap:

      http://i.imgur.com/Kim10MU.jpg?1

    1. True, but now it’s all about rain/snow line (track) as temps will likely be marginal during some of the forecasted events.

  49. I talked to my sister in law in Atlanta. She said they are using helicopters to search for folks still stranded. The mayor and governor are pleading for people to stay home yet some tried to go to work today. I don’t understand why driving has not been prohibited.

    1. My friend that lives there says everyone is still driving around, and looting has been happening, that’s the way they do things there Vicki, they will never prohibit people from going out and into there own car, never happen 🙂

      1. Charlie my sister in law said she has not heard of any looting. It would be a tremendous exception as that is NOT something you’d find in the history of Atlanta. She said there is a tremendous amount of folks helping each other, churches opening doors, folks are reaching out from every corner. Why wouldn’t your friend look at that positive ?

  50. Hello,
    Did anyone hear channel 4 say this winter has been 1 we won’t forget? I thought it was funny. Anyways as for the next potential significant event, it smells like mainly rain in the BIG cities from Boston to DC, and snow inland, how close the snow/rain line is is the big question. Possible frontend dumping of snow before changeover, but how much snow again is the question. Still early 🙂

  51. Oh did I miss your rain/snow line Charlie!! I for one can’t predict rain or snow line 8 days in advance.

    1. O geez 1st I didn’t confidently predict the snow rain line, 2nd it’s a weather blog, not channel 4.

      1. How someone can predict an event 11 or 12 days out is beyond me.

        Just think about it (It was mentioned in Dt’s article sort of),
        The model has to be correct about tomorrow and then the day after and the day after that and so on, for it to be correct 12 days out. The chances of that happening is virtually NILL. 😀 😀 😀

        If it screws up on say the 500MB pattern 3 days from now, How
        the hell can it be correct 12 days from now. Simple. It Can’t be.

        I guess all we can do it look at the trends, particularly in the
        upper air patterns. 😀 😀

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