Coldest Exits … For Now

157 Comments

7:50PM

The latest cold snap of this winter is in its final stages with one more very cold night tonight and reasonably cold day tomorrow. Moderation follows, with temperatures going above freezing in some areas Friday and in all areas over the weekend. During this time, some minor weather systems will impact the region, first a cold front dropping into the region on Friday but with not much push to it, going back to the north as a warm front on Saturday, before a low pressure wave passing to the north of southern New England drives the front back through as a cold front on Sunday, which is a big day in sports (Super Bowl in NJ) and a big day in rodents predicting the weather (i.e., ground hog day). Upcoming blogs will have some outlooks for both of these events.

Looking into next week, seasonable cold returns Monday, and a storm threat looms for late Tuesday and Wednesday, but it’s far too early to determine the impact the storm may have on this region.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from 0 inland valleys to 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Wind light W.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow to rain showers. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 42.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Lows 15.  High 34.

WEDNESDAY: Snow or rain. Low 25. High 35.

157 thoughts on “Coldest Exits … For Now”

    1. The GFS doesn’t know which end is up. And the ensembles look like
      a finger painting by a 2 year old. No consistency among the ensemble members.
      A BAD sign for the operational run. But hey, that might mean there is hope. 😀

  5. Thanks TK !

    Maybe we can get back to some storms, where the Cape and coastal SE Mass have rain, Boston is some sort of wintry precip and just N and W, it snows. And perhaps northern New England can get in on the action.

  6. YES!!! im liking what i see on the models finally 😀 😀 😀 of course its going to change and maybe the storm goes a tad further south than currently on the gfs . Gfs gives everyone north and west of boston at least 6 inches. finally including Ski country!! 😀 with less south and east the way it should be 😛

  9. It is absolutely ridiculous how government officials are blaming the meteorologists in Atlanta. The mets nailed this storm, and it is such an easy excuse for bad decisions. Mistakes happen especially when you are not use to this stuff but stand up and admit a mistake. I heard an interview with the Superintendent of Atlanta schools who said he had no idea this was coming until it had begun and then the mets changed their forecast. Oh well I guess it is the easy way out.

        1. There sure was …at least what we heard. But I’m wondering about the local mets. My sister in law thought it was coming in last evening into today. The local Atlanta stations are saying it arrived well before expected. Being a flight attendant she really has no grounding on what day is what but I wonder. Does anyone know if it was early or how local mets forecast?

  10. I am not exactly sure how the local Atlanta meteorologist called it but here is a tweet from Kevin Lemanowitz:
    My friends @FOX5Atlanta have been all over this. Shame on govt for blaming meteorologists. You. Were. Warned. I even had it here @fox25news

  12. Hahaha when I read “a big day in rodents predicting the weather” I read it as
    “a day that big rodents predict the weather”. Hahahaha 😛

  13. Next week looks like its gonna be a close call between a nice snowstorm and mix. Could be a typical N&W of 495 and the Mass Pike deal.

    Trend for the winter has been for storms to press further South and East so colder scenario shouldn’t be ignored IMHO.

  14. Agree retrac. Euro looks cold to warmer mid week. And next weekend looks like a beauty with heavy snow and cold. Clearly too soon to excited but certainly an active period coming up. Belen is euro snow map for entire period.

    http://imgur.com/lDvipX6

    1. 00z looks similar to that I’m betting as it has 1.32″ qpf snow for Worc. and 1.14″ for Boston.

      This could end up being a North of the Pike deal.

  16. Can see a little happening middle of next week and maybe on the 9th. But in NE anything 7-10 days out might as well be a year out.

  18. It’s beginning to come together for 2/5,2/6 and 2/9.
    I’m really liking the Euro, BUY, can it be trusted???
    That is the question.

    For 2/5,2/6, Boston is on the hairy edge of a changeover. This is what, 6 + days out,
    so I expect some fine tuning and wavering of the final snow/rain line. But as others have said, it’s looking more like a “typical” Winter storm than those we have been having.

    Should be an interesting couple of weeks.

  19. Good morning. I have been listening to the stories of people helping people coming out of Atlanta. Stores and restaurants remaining open to house stranded people, one woman realized people were asking for help and people were offering help but they were not connected. She started a FB page that has an amazing amount of followers….something like 50,000 people. What a wonderful testament to how the area handles adversity

  21. 6 z gfs also showing a big front end thump of snow ie 6+ inch and then right in the edge if rain or snow.

  22. The first system is still 6 or so days off.

    The models will be wavering in track and intensity until
    a final solution is reached. Just sit back and enjoy how it all evolves.

    I think ALL of the models have had these systems for days, so right
    now it doesn’t seem to be an issue of IF there will be the 2 storms, it’s
    a question of track and intensity.

    Could one or both still end up an inside runner? Sure. One or both OTS? Sure.
    Could one or both nail us with substantial snow storms? Yup.

    At this point ANYTHING GOES. 😀 😀

    1. From our Friend Henry: 😀 😀

      Henry Margusity ‏@HenryMargusity 53m
      What a week next week with two major winter storms. These are 12+ inch type storms coming.

      1. Sure, this may very well happen, but I think it is irresponsible
        to start saying stuff like that at this early date. Just my opinion. 😀

    1. Hadi, before you copy and paste that link from IMGUR,
      CLICK on it again to expand the image. Open the image in another browser
      window and try to expand it again. Then copy the link here.
      It “should” look something like this:

      http://i.imgur.com/aAWLg5z.jpg

  25. Things could get interesting next week. Gil Simmons meteorologist at our ABC station here in CT said this morning February is shaping up to be a cold and stormy month the way it looks right now. He is not an alarmist and not a hypster so will see what happens.

    1. That sounds great, however, we Need TK and JMA on board.
      If they jump onto the SNOW TRAIN, then I’ll believe it.

      Right now, as far as I’m concerned, the JURY is out. There are just too many
      things that can go wrong. (And they usually do.)

      I, for one, will thoroughly enjoy the model outputs, MET’S prognostications, tweets etc and the discussion here. 😀

      Let the FUN begin. 😀

  26. I think next Sunday storm has a better chance of all snow. Wed storm is a little harder but i think if it happens it’s more like a rain/snow situation but the way winter has gone I would lean towards snow.

    1. Hadi, I like your thinking.

      For Wednesday’s storm the 0Z Euro brings Rain right up to Boston or so.
      Certainly a changeover in SE sections with that particular run.
      We shall see what the 12Z run brings.

      Looking at the GFS and CMC, I agree with you that Wednesday’s storm
      “may” be more of a Snow to rain perhaps back to snow event. But as you
      and JJ? have said, the storms this year have trended more S&E than
      forecast.

      We shall see. 😀

  27. Taking it one storm threat at a time I think were looking at a sloporama with the mid week storm threat with all different types of precipitation. I don’t see that one a snowstorm. Of course that could change and track will be keep.

  28. I think slop will end up being further south than most think. The cold front comes in ahead of storm so if storm does happen I think its colder than modeled.

  29. Also just too early to talk about rain/snow line. Let’s watch track, one thing for sure the GOM has opened for business so we are finally dealing with some serious QPF if things come together.

  30. Too soon JJ to assume anything. As I always say it’s easier to call for slop vs anything else so hold off on assuming anything 🙂

  31. Hadi,

    Keep the positive thinking. I believe it is sound thinking at the moment, but
    We’ve seen it all, so anything can still happen.

    Let’s just say we’re cautiously optimistic at this point.

    Still waiting on 12Z runs. 😀

  33. The first storm threat is Tuesday night Wednesday second storm threat is for next weekend.
    At least the weather for the Super Bowl will be nice with no precipitation.

  34. I for one will miss the real cold, and fear we’ve turned the corner. This morning’s run was nice, but I could feel change in the air. The birds could, too, as they were tweeting away. I think a SW wind lifts their spirits, but not mine.

    All we can see with relative certainty is that we’ll get much needed precipitation next week. I think a lot of it will be in the form of slop of rain/mix/snow at the coast and snow inland as well as the mountains (happy for ski country). Snow may still happen at the coast but the track of the storm will have to be just right as temps will be marginal all week.

  35. A couple days back I liked Euro over GFS regarding the medium range 500 mb pattern. Since, Mr. Euro is suffering from inconsistentitis and has been benched from my team for now.

    2. So are you saying the 500mb pattern does not support big storms? Especially the “biggie” on the 9th?

    3. So TK what do you see in the upcoming pattern, i.e. do you think it is conducive for a more coastal track with snow next week or are you leaning more towards inside runner?

    1. I think that they are BOTH going to be Strong and loaded with QPF.

      Here’s my main fear:

      1. Storm #1 becomes an inside runner and gives virtually ALL of SNE
      a RAIN event.
      2. Storm #2 becomes a monster and passes out to sea South of us after
      hammering the Mid-Atlantic.

      Think about it. How else would it play out?

  38. I posted this the other day about the EURO reading the blog prior to snow hitting southeastern VA from WAVY the NBC Station in Norfok, VA the EURO was the outlier and came around to the other models. EURO this winter has been dethroned as king.

    1. Who is KING? The GFS? The CMC? those are really the only 2 other
      candidates. Given that choice, it is narrowed down to the GFS of all things. 😀 😀
      I don’t think that the CMC has been performing all that well, especially for
      the longer range of 6-10 days.

    1. No Doubt on storm #2, so much so, it may be OTS.

      With #1 storm, not so sure. We shall see. The cold coming in, is not
      like it has been, so it could promote a coastal hugger or inside runner.

      We shall see.

      Dying to peek at today’s 12Z runs. 😀

      1. May yield lots of much needed snow up north. This scenario of a snow changing to rain event hasn’t happened in a while (hence the lack of snow up north). Law of averages suggests we’re due for that kind of scenario. I don’t like it, as it’s really sloppy, hard to move, and not pretty in SNE, but at least it’ll satisfy the ski lodge proprietors and ski people generally.

    2. That’s not that much snow. I wonder what the ratio would be?
      Doesn’t look like it would be 10:1. looks lower, say 6,7 or 8 to 1?
      Something like that. 😀

  43. just for giggles.
    first storm.
    . tuesday sunny. snow developes tuesday night Snow every where but mix on the cape and islands. this mix line makes it to the south coast by day break. . mix moves to the pike in the late morning. mix goes to all rain south coast,cape and islands by 9am.
    still all snow north of the pike till noon. mix makes its way northward to the rt2 corridor.. Rain east of i95. . At least a moderate snowfall. for most but most washed away south of the pike.

    Second storm looks more of a plain snow event. for most but southeast mass 😀 😀

    favorable weather pattern for ski country and northern mass 😀

    Main story is that im happy for california they will be getting some much needed rain as the southern jet is getting more active. 😀

    I like what I am seeing on the weather models.

  44. Record amount of rain in the UK:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25944823

    I knew it was a rainy and stormy (wind) month in England, but had not realized it broke records. Holland also experienced a wet January, but not record-breaking. There was at least some rain every single day. Yes, every day, folks. You can count the number of sunny hours in the entire month on your two hands and two feet. I’ve been through those kinds of January’s in Holland and, believe me, you’ll miss Boston when you experience that. In fact, you’ll consider the Boston area a sunny paradise in comparison.

  46. 12Z Canadian Charts for the Wednesday system:

    Wed, 7AM

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144

    Wed, 7PM:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=156&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=156&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Both of these show favorable 850MB temps, but it is what happens in the middle.

    CMC-GDPS / Meteograms – Precipitation:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    About 20MM qpf as snow or .78 inch
    About 5mm qpf of sleet or about .2 inch
    About 15mm of RAIN or about .6 inch

    IF this were to happen, what a SLOPPY MESS.
    About 8 inches of heavier snow and sleet followed up by .6 inch of RAIN!

    YUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!

    Truly GROSSS!!!!!

      1. Wundermap not out far enough to see the real damage yet.
        Pretty Pathetic. These models don’t know which end is up.

        As good as they are, they ALL are in need of some serious work.
        What also would help, would be a thicker network of reporting
        stations to better initialize these modes, but who’s going to pay for that?

        I guess, we’re pretty much stuck with what we have and can
        only hope for small incremental improvements.

        Sorry, I rant. It’s in my nature.

        Until the next runs, I rest in peace. 😀 😀

  47. Projected low for Tuesday night would be in the teens and Wednesdays daytime high mid 30s. I think timing plays a big role in this one.

    1. I don’t think timing matter one single little tiny bit with this one.
      The only thing that matters with this one is the TRACK, period. 😀 😀

      1. Well say its delayed Tuesday night and becomes a Wednesday day storm with say tempatures in the mid to upper 30s that poses a problem and translates to rain for most. So I’m thinking timing does play a role . Time will tell.

  48. Just had a look at the Wundermap. Same ole crap.
    Some front end snows, something in the order of 3-6 inches across SNE before
    switching over to a deluge of RAIN.

    FIGURES

    1. Not concerned as the Euro has been abysmal this winter. The 12Z GFS has for three straight runs pushed the low further east and although not perfect in its set up for all snow, encouraging from my perspective. Now I don’t know nearly as much as TKA or others here who feel the pattern may be more apt to yield the Euro’s version, I’m not buying it yet

  50. It’ll likely be a coastal hugger (E/SE winds). We’re due for one. Unfortunately, we’ll probably be dealing with a lot of sloppy you-know-what. Don’t bank on temps remaining in the 30s on Wednesday. SE wind will have temps soaring into the mid to upper 40s, IMHO, only to `crash’ down after the low pulls through. Big snows up north, however, especially in areas over 1500 feet. Well over a foot in ski country, with perhaps two feet in the White Mountains and Maine mountains.

    1. Josh I agree. Playing it conservative with the tempature. Again that’s why to me timing is key. Not really impressed so far.

  52. Euro though still has next weekend storm in the long range. I think that’s one that probably ends up being better for the coast.

    1. JJ, I think you’ll be OK given your location. Even a coastal hugger will still give you more snow than locations east of, say, 495 and 128.

  55. Joshua I thinks its going to be an interesting February with plenty of stuff to track. Now the questions are how many of these storm threats materialize and if they do what form will the precipitation be in.

  56. Remember, the GFS has a southern bias. It sometimes overdoes the strength of the northern branch and forces systems further south and east. This might not bode too well for the midweek storm but could be good for next weekends

  57. Anyone know how consistent the euro ensemble mean has been on these systems? Has it been wavering around like the op?

    1. Not as bad, but not as good as it once was.

      The upgrade to higher resolution seemed to trigger something.

      I hope this does not make the GFS worse when it gets its upgrade in a couple months…

  59. Initial thoughts on upcoming weather:

    * A cold front settling across the area tomorrow that would normally bring snow showers will probably bring NOTHING.

    * A warm front that lifts through the region Saturday that would often bring a period of snow/mix will probably bring … a period of snow or mix to rain, but VERY LIGHT.

    * Mild Sunday even though another cold front comes swinging through. This turns it chilly for Monday-Tuesday, but more seasonably so than the Arctic invasions we have seen.

    * Our greatest chance for a storm of significant magnitude anytime soon comes late Tuesday and Wednesday. I think the Euro’s timing is too slow. The GFS is a little better, IMO, this far away, but you know as well as I do that trying to split hairs on timing this far out is not really even worth the effort. So what do I have to say other than this? Initial feeling is we’ll start as snow, but not stay snow, especially southern and eastern areas.

    * GFS’s idea of suppressing storminess more to the south is probably underdone in its medium to longer range. The “snap-back” theory says that the pattern will want to try to revert to the cold one we saw set up shop a few times recently, but at the same time will battle what wants to be a more zonal flow due to less ridging in western North America. Still, I think enough cold northern jet is involved to minimize storminess and send most of it across the Mid Atlantic. Does that means we have no threat next weekend? No it does not mean that. It’s just too early to do anything except speculate long range.

    * I think February will end up cold and dry, and so will March.

  60. Doing a few errands, heading to dinner with my son, then taking him to his first Bruins game. I’ll be away from the blog for several hours. Have a great evening everyone!

  61. From NWS out of Upton Sunday night into Monday. Maybe something else to keep an eye on???
    A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
    PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE VARIOUS 12Z
    MODELS ARE VARYING IN STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE…SOME
    KEEP IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP US DRY. HOWEVER…AN ENSEMBLE
    APPROACH…INCLUDING RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FROM THE ECMWF
    BEHOOVES US TO GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
    MONDAY. THE COLUMN SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SNOW EVENT. AT THIS
    TIME…LIGHT ACCUMS WOULD BE EXPECTED IF THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS
    CLOSE…PROBABLY PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY.
    WILL HOWEVER MONITOR FOR FURTHER TRENDS.

  62. 18Z GFS for Wednesday wants to give us a healthy dumping of snow before changing
    over.

    Here is the snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014013018&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=159

    For the 9th system, it wants to shunt out to sea South of us after dumping copious
    QPF on Mid-Atlantic.

    Look at these charts:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014013018&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=228

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014013018&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=240

    WIMP snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014013018&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=288

  65. Just listened to TWC discuss Atlanta. The raised to a warning at 3:30 am. Plenty of time to cancel school. They agree the mayor didnt learn based on his Today show comment. Well they were not quite that blatant. But they said his plan in the future of staggering work and school release would not work in the same instance.

  66. If anybody has a chance check out Pete B Blog. You guy might find it interesting. He talks about the current state of the weather outlets and how we may receive forecast in the future. Channel 7 has even started its own blog where you can post like Bz, that should be interesting.

    1. About time. I have been asking Pete for years why they don’t have an interactive blog. I think they were worried about BZs disaster. They had every reason to be. I wish them luck and hope they have a good moderator.

  73. Below normal temps and above normal precipitation in both the 6-10 8-14 day outlooks from the CPC. Hopefully most of that precipitation falls as snow! As I said this morning our meteorlogist here in CT Gil Simmons said February is shaping up to be a cold and stormy month. Will see what happens.

  74. From taunton NWS:

    WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT FOR STRONG AND COMPLEX LOW PRES SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION WITH SOME SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT ANDDEEP LAYER COLD AIR DAMMING. THIS COLD AIR COULD SUPPORT AN ALL SNOW START…WITH A WINTRY MIX AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAFL THEREAFTER. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN REMAIN ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT. ONE ISSUE THAT IS WELL AGREED UPON IS THE CONNECTION TO SOME GULF REGION MOISTURE…WITH PWATS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. IN SUM…POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT STORM EXISTS.

  76. One thing for sure based on long range euro through Feb into early march, the cold is there. Obviously if you trust euro.

    1. The cold just does not want to let go for any long length of time. Regardless of how we finish with snow totals, this winter will be remembered for being a cold one.

  80. John you can ask me bc I am the one that posted the amount. I have access to a lot more data from the euro than the free info n

  82. Can I just say I HATE the way the GFS looks right now.

    I just have that bad feeling that we’re in for a pattern of sh***y storms that throw a 2 inch snow burst then heavy sleet, then freezing rain, then rain with temps rising to a whopping 34.

    If it’s gonna change over, give me a 40mph SW wind with temps in the 50’s.

    Ugghhhh!

    1. WHILE SUCH A BROAD-SCALE PATTERN OUTLINED ABOVE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
      CONSISTENT…BOTH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES
      HAVE NOT. FEEL THE VARIANCE OF OUTCOMES IS A CONSEQUENCE OF POOR-
      SAMPLING ALOFT…AS WELL AS A RESULT OF MODEL WEAKNESS WHEN IT COMES
      TO INTERACTION/PHASING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES. SUBSEQUENTLY WEATHER
      SENSIBLE DETAILS AND SURFACE OUTCOMES ARE A CHALLENGE TO GRASP AND
      AS A RESULT THERE IS DETERIORATING CERTAINTY FURTHER INTO THE
      EXTENDED TIMEFRAME.

      WITH THIS FORECAST…PREFER A NON-GFS BLEND THOUGH NOT PERFECT. THIS
      WAS PREFERRED BASED ON GFS-MODELED OUTCOMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
      MONDAY.

  84. According to the NWS out of Upton NY EURO the only one showing precipitation for Monday as both 6z NAM and 6z GFS are dry. The mid week storm looks to be the better shot at happening. Track will be critcial.

  85. It looks like we might have storm “Nika” some time next week. Thinking the mid-week storm has a chance of being colder than originally advertised … not wishful thinking, just see a respectable chance of colder air being in place. Not sure if the colder stream will push storms south and east. It’s all about the battle lines.

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