Hey! It’s Still Winter!

244 Comments

7:25AM

A break in the cold is here, as the next 3 days will show. But hey, it’s still winter you know! A storm threat is showing itself next week, followed by another cold shot.

First, to end January and start February, it’ll be on the quiet but cloudy side as a front wavers around the region, dropping in as a cold front today, retreating back to the north as a warm front Saturday, then charging back through as a cold front Sunday, but not in a dramatic way because this time no Arctic air mass is set to charge in behind it.

Looking into next week, Monday looks cool and quiet, though a wave of low pressure on the recently-passed front may toss some clouds into the region but it looks like any precipitation should remain well offshore. Another storm will approach the region late Tuesday and pass through Wednesday. Very early indications are that this storm will have a track that will allow it to start as snow then change to sleet and rain in most of the region, but it should move right along and be followed by cold and dry weather Thursday.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Temperatures steady 35-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow to sleet/rain. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 30.

244 thoughts on “Hey! It’s Still Winter!”

  2. Thank you Tk. Bad news on storm for Wednesday. GFS can’t
    Make up it’s mind. Euro and CMc look much better for
    MORE SNOW.

      2. Now that I’m not mobile, I can look more closely at some
        of these models.

        CMC re: Wednesday
        Kitchen Sink storm

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

        15MM qpf as snow or .59 inch qpf or about 6 inches of snow
        About 4.5mm of slet or .17 inch qpf

        So all in all about 5-7 inches of HEAVY stuff.

        And just a tiny winy bit of Rain.

        re: the 9th
        CMC has about 30MM qpf as snow or 1.18 inch qpf
        Depending on ratio, a good 8-12 inches.

  3. Thanks TK !

    I wonder if Atlanta, GA could go from 20F and snow last Wednesday to a warm sector side of a storm with a severe weather scenario next Wednesday.

  4. Thanks TK 🙂
    Good Morning, all! on this last day of January 🙂
    Hoping for a snowy February!

  7. so if we do get snow on Monday that may be an indication the Euro has a better handle on the atmospheric conditions, but if not the GFS would and I think that may help us with both the midweek and next weekend storms. I’m very interested to see the 12Z data for the models

  8. so if we do get snow on Monday that may be an indication the Euro has a better handle on the atmospheric conditions, but if not the GFS would and I think that may help us with both the midweek and next weekend storms. I’m very interested to see the 12Z data for the models

  9. Euro sure is colder for mid week storm. Surface temps barely above freezing. It has a decent thump of snow. I will post map once I get into work.

    1. Here’s the Euro Surface map:

      http://i.imgur.com/aRGAMdh.jpg?1

      Temps look ok for Snow for most of storm. Marginal in the Boston area
      for a few hours, perhaps some sleet or sleet rain mix or even a brief
      change to rain for Boston, BUT mostly SNOW. More snow North, more
      rain South.

      GFS has been all over the map. NO consistency whatsoever.
      06Z is an inside runner/Lakes cutter. 0Z run was a Beauty of a Coastal!!!
      Perhaps the data void being the problem.

      I am really interested to see the 12Z GFS. 😀 😀

      HAdi, looking forward to your total Euro Snow map. Many thanks

    1. Nice! And thank you!
      Link #1 looks best.

      I “might” consider the GFS IF it had some consistency. It’s been like Jykle and Hyde!
      I mean BRUTAL.

      We have three (3) major models:

      GFS as of the 06Z run has the least snowy solution with much more rain
      CMC is in the middle with a good slug of Snow, then Sleet and a wee bit of Rain
      EURO is the MOST snowy solution with virtually all snow, with perhaps a bit of sleet
      and also perhaps a wee bit of rain.

      I WANT to lean towards the snowier solution.

      Now to be sure, the 06GFS run has sparse data. Hopefully it’s not onto something.
      However, it is the LATER run. The other 2 are 0Z runs from last night.
      Last night’s 0Z GFS was also right in there like the other 2.

      SO, we are left with 2 conclusions:

      1. The 06Z Gfs is a data void piece of S**T and the 12Z run will be back on course.
      2. The 06Z Gfs had newer data (even if sparse) and has changed course and the
      others will follow with the 12Z runs today.

      I sure hope it is Door #1

      Thoughts?

      1. for what its worth, hasnt nearly every low the last 2+ weeks trended further north and west as time has gone by.

        There were the 2 clippers that at first looked like south coast skirters with snow potential that ended up the St. Lawrence River Valley with warm sectors in our area. I think that was last Saturday and Monday. And then the coastal system, that was way OTS ended up backing NW enough to get snow into SE Mass. So ….. based on persistence, I’d have to initially favor a further NW track of the 2 options.

        1. Tom I agree with you initially, but was that setup different with those two storm? Ridge to the west with a trough in the east? I maybe incorrect but I believe we will be in more of a zonal flow? If so, I am not sure what kind of implications that would present.

          1. Coastal,

            I agree. The set up is TOTALLY different.

            In this case, I do NOT believe we can go with
            the previous trends.

            Again, I await the 12Z GFS to see which way
            the wind is blowing today. 😀

            1. Agree with you both different setups. I guess I was thinking more about the strength of the ridges to the SE of the setups. In this particular setup, it will have a SE Ridge, and in my opinion, its strength is notoriously undermodeled. Stronger SE Ridge, further NW storm track.

  11. Just drove down to Charlie’s part of the world. More snow there than here! Fancy that. I was expecting a spring-like paradise with blossoming rhododendrons, humming birds, the smell of fresh grass, and the opening of swimming pools to unfold before my eyes as I neared the Foxboro/Wrentham/Attleboro exits. Instead I saw more snow than in Boston. The east side of Providence had a good 2 inches of a crunchy snow-pack, even on some of the side streets. This was from a couple of days ago, but still.

    3. My yard is still snow covered in Sharon (near the Foxboro line), at least 2″ maybe more in some spots. I do know down in the Attleboro area, on the Rehoboth/Seekonk side of Attleboro where my mom lives, theres always significantly less snow than even some areas in the northern parts of Attleboro. That area can be very variable in terms of snowfall, being in the edge of r/s lines and on the edge of storms that just give the south shore snow. The south side of Attleboro can get all rain while North Attleboro and Plainville get 6″ of snow. This year especially has been abnormally variable all across the area not just down there.

    4. Joshua my son was here yesterday. He lives in providence. He said there is about the same or a bit more down that way too. I asked if he was familiar with the Charlie hole. He didn’t get the humor 😉

  13. I tend to go the way winter has gone so far. But this storm is more like most of out storms. Rain snow line up to Plymouth and maybe just south. We shall see

  14. HM is one crazy dude. Yesterday he posted that +nao and -PNA would support snow in the east and today he posts just opposite.

    1. oh my goodness, thats funny……. which right now is not good for me. During Wednesday at work, the flu or whatever it is overtook me. Anyhow, starting to turn the corner a bit today, but all the coughing has my ribs sore ….. and laughing while reading your post was a bit painful ….. but totally worth it !!

  15. What happened in Atlanta got me thinking ……..

    What is our area, though we may think we are ready to handle, not ready to deal with ?

    I mean, post 2000 …… Katrina in 2005, Sandy (there were still a lot of folks needing rescuing because of the storm surge, if I recall correctly) and this event.

    I keep coming to a cat 4 hurricane or something of that nature. With the coverage of snowstorms by the media, I cant imagine that would overwhelm us.

    1. Agree Tom. We see the evacuation route signs as we drive out of Boston. Mac just shakes his head. Sadly, I don’t think between the amount of traffic and and the lack of what respect for others we once had that there is any way we could evacuate the city.

      1. yes, but what can take away from one event (middle of next week) may give back on another. Keep tuned on Sunday night/Monday morning or whenever that wave of low pressure ripples along the weekend cold front. That will end up further N and W then currently shown, I think.

  17. Saw the 12z GFS starts with the 540 line at MA NH border and only moves north from there. 2m temps remain pretty cold though. Look like a mess of precip of about ~1.0″. However, at this point my thinking would lean towards a colder, but weaker scenario.

    2. Interesting you’re thinking weaker. I remember a while back you saying storms that have gone south and east of our area, models overdid the precip and we came out with less qp, but storms that went over or west of us the models under forecast precip and we had more qp.

    1. Why do you say that? Because I said I was going to puke?

      Of course I’ll be ok.

      That was all for dramatic effect. 😀 😀

      Hey, the weather will do what it’s going to do. NOTHING we can do about it.
      😀

  19. does the Euro hold as a colder solution? The only hope could be that the pattern is changing and the Euro which handled the last pattern awful will now handle the new pattern beautifully! I’m just glad there is something to track and these types of storms make for nowcasting when they’re here

    1. Gross. Wet storms this time of year are nothing but miserable gross sloppy messes. Rain and temps in the mid 30’s is the worst kind of weather IMO. It will certainly make a dent in the precip deficit though. But thats the ONLY good thing.

  25. bring on spring? We are not even close. Way to early bc March can be terrible around here and probably will be this year.

    EURO looks pretty much all snow for Wed, temps just get above freezing in Boston.

  26. GFS has been the only model trending warmer, EURO is actually colder than 2 days ago so not sure how you can saying the models are trending.

  27. This is very interesting…..I am going to be keying in on Monday’s system as a clue to which model has the best handle. If if flies south and OTS then I’ll be thinking the GFS will be the more likely route or if it’s a close call or scrape for the south coast I’d favor the Euro. By then the models may have changed too, so it should be interesting

  31. Just for today’s 12z scenario, I dont think I’m in agreement with the EURO as far as its storm track vs what would happen weatherwise as a result.

    I cant recall a ton of storms, where the primary ended up around Cleveland, a secondary of sorts developed just SE of NYC and the result was resulting appreciable snow in Boston.

    Perhaps the column would hold. Actually, with the ocean so chilly now, the boundary layer isnt the biggest concern anymore, its a few to several thousand feet overhead thats the concern.

    I dont know, under this scenario and based on experience, I could see a beginning few inches, eventually destined to change to rain in Boston.

    Of course, thats today’s scenario and even better for snow rooters, my opinion just probably guaranteed 1 ft plus !! 🙂

    1. Tom,

      I understand you concerns.

      I was thinking that yesterday the Taunton NWS was indicating
      that there were strong signals for deep level Cold Air Damming.

      I wonder IF that is the reason for the cold holding with this set up?

      We shall see.

      Right now I’m not liking any of this, not the 2/5 system and NOT the 2/9 system. Henry has sure shut up. 😀 😀

  34. I am not even close to calling next weeks storm rain or anything else. Way too much time. The players haven’t even entered the field yet.

    1. But, much like betting on the super bowl winner before the players are on the field, if u were putting money on it, would u say more snow or more rain?? 😛

  36. looking at models ski country looks to do great. us in northern mass. north of the pike. should do good areas south of the pike looks to still get plowable snowfall. coastline , cape and islands. its the way it should be for you….. RAIN! 😀

  38. All I can say is that NOTHING looks good at the moment. Could it change? I suppose
    so. GFs looks worse and worse with each successive run.

    Wednesday’s system starts out on a bee line as a Lakes Cutter and then
    Wham, redevelops over MA and becomes a distinct coastal in MA Bay, TOO LATE
    for Southern NE. Ditto CMC, however, the Euro want to develop the coastal much sooner, in fact soon enough to make it mostly Snow Boston area Northward. Can we
    get that to happen, that is the question.

    My instincts say NO WAY, this is a snow to RAIN scenario.

    als0, the 18Z GFS want to Screw wit us for the 9th system as well and produce a real Lakes Cutter. I GIVE UP!*@&#*&*!@(&*#&!*@#&*!*@#&*!@&&!@#

    1. John, This is changing with each model run.
      The latest GFS run has about 4-6 inches for Boston, then RAIN.

      This morning’s Euro run had more like 8-10 inches or so.

      We’ll see what tonight’s 0Z runs have to say. 😀

      1. from NWS:

        This storm is still well into the future as weather forecasts go, with several runs of the computer programs still to come…each with a new set of initial data to “number-crunch”. The details can, and likely will, change somewhat over the next few days.

        1. Also this:

          CONTINUING OUR WORD OF CAUTION…SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
          BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY
          LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WHERE DATA COVERAGE IS POOR. IN
          ADDITION HIGH AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THIS REGION LEADS
          TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION.

        1. He loved the experience. The game itself was a bummer because the team seemed uninterested. If you’re gonna lose, at least do it PLAYING HARD. They just were not in that game mentally, at all.

          But the experience of being there and all of that was very fun for him. 🙂

  41. Looking like my concern for a parade of mix storms is legit. ughhh.

    Let me guess, a month worth of crappy mix storms, then we’ll be facing sun angle screwing things up.

    Bring on spring if this is how it’s going to be!

    ughhhh.

  42. Thanks TK 😀

    Since sports is a topic here once and a while…who here knows about/and or is going to watch the kitten bowl on Sunday? 😉 I never knew they had one! I thought they only had a puppy one!

    1. It does look to be for a good cause …. Its evidently emceed by John Sterling, the voice of the NY Yankees, so ….. no thanks for me. 🙂

  43. Well, last year at this time, coming off of a no show of winter in 2012 and a basic no snow/some cold in Dec 2012 and Jan 2013, I thought getting to February was game over on winter.

    Well last February and most of March reminded me of my big perception error and I’ll only say this year, going into February …. May the last 6-8 weeks of winter go by fast and be a little kinder to us than last year.

  44. Over/Under 50F on Sunday locally ???……. (I think the best chance might be Merrimack Valley and Southern NH, as opposed to Logan.)

    I’m going OVER.

  46. 0Z GFS is a no show for Monday, HOWEVER, GFS now looking better for
    Wednesday. Still shows a change to rain in the Boston area, but storm looks
    better and redevelops Just South of area. with MUCH MORE SNOW than previous run. Here’s a look:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020100&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=114

    Here’s the snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020100&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=138

  47. I think the snow rain line has a tough time making it much further north and west than the mass pike, going to be big differences in amounts south to north across the area, still early

  48. Well, 2014 is starting out like an extension of 2013 for us – we just lost our cat, Cara. She had been sick for a few wks. but after many tests it didn’t look serious. But during the night, she really got sick. I highly doubt we will get another cat – too much at this point.

  49. Can’t see much snow this week unless the rain-snow line makes a shift, but snow lovers can keep a hopeful eye on the 2/9-2/11 timeframe. Yes, of course it’s a ways off, but just maybe!

  50. Well euro says otherwise Longshot. Euro has all snow for wed for KBOS and plenty of qpf. Seems exactly like JMA mentioned, colder and weaker but qpf is still .88.

    2. That would certainly be consistent with the pattern this year Hadi. Do we stick with trend until shown otherwise? That’s usually my rule of thumb. The
      gfs just has me freaked out.

      1. And the GFS has been pretty good this year. And the GFS and I have a rocky past so it kills me to say it!

        1. The GFS for this system has been back and forth, up and down and ALL over the place. So How can you trust it this time? Answer, you can’t! Go with the Euro and Canadian this time around. 😀

          1. I know O.S., it’s tough but I can recall some storms this winter where the GFS was out in front, wavered then came back to its original solution that turned out to be the correct one.

            What’s keeping me hopeful is trend. Except of course if the real trend comes in and it goes OTS. That’s been the real trend.

            1. I think at this point we’ll be spared an OTS solution. I think the Euro/Candian
              blend is the way this time.

              btw, check out the LARGE discrepancy between the GFS and EURO for the 9th.

  52. 06Z GFS trending farther NORTH for Monday. 😀

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=066

    It can’t seem to make up it’s mind about Wednesday.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020106&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=108

    Snow Map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020106&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=132

    And for the 9th, talk about a LAKES CUTTER!!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020106&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=204

  54. OS, I don’t think the Euro has the storm on the 9th as a lakes cutter, but like I said I don’t have much faith in the Euro.

    1. No it doesn’t. It has a nice system. Those 24 hour increments make it tough, but here is the before and after:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=216

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=240

      That looks like close to a Benchmark pass to me and about TIME!!!

    1. It’s also consistent with flatter, weaker waves. We haven’t even had a sniff of a sub 990 snow low this winter yet have we?

    1. Actually have to back off qpf just a bit as I inadvertently included the
      bit from Monday. Sorry about that. Make it about .78 to .75 or so.

  58. Commenting on the Tuesday Night Wednesday event. Prefer the ECMWF solution which is somewhat weaker, further south and colder. It reduces QPF by about 25 – 30 % and keeps it mostly snow other than SE areas. Along the lines of .6-.75 as opposed to 1.0+ of liquid at the moment. I see the more zonal flow not allowing the low to track as far north or west as GFS prefers to at the moment.

    OS. That GFS snow map from 00z makes little sense based on it putting a 540 line into southern maine. I think its lack of of a 500-700mb component in its equation is allowing it to error and misdiagnosis sleet and freezing rain as snow or rain.

    Acemaster ECMWF since August has deepened storms to rapidly and created a too much precip usually centered too far west. That is what I wrote about at one point on the blog. Perhaps that is what you are remembering?

    Ok. Off to 8am Soccer.

    1. Thanks JMA. Very nice analysis and very much appreciated.

      I know it’s Waaaay out there, but what are your early thoughts on
      the system for the 9th. This looks to be the biggest system yet.

      Any hope? Thanks

    2. Generally in the 12 hour period from 1am-1pm Wed is where the storm should be focused. Boston, Worcester, Springfield all pretty uniform on the ECMWF delivering about .65-.75 in that 12 hour period. Thought is to agree with others of mostly snow and some sleet along that geographic line.

  59. Tweet from Barry b

    @HarveyWCVB: More significant winter storm to affect Boston area late Tue. Nt/Wed…with mostly snow & sleet

  63. From NWS service Upton, NY office this morning re: Wednesday

    INDICATIONS ARE THAT
    COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS    WILL OCCUR OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WED MORNING AND TRACK JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK…HOWEVER THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN

    1. From Taunton Office of NWS:

      TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT…

      MILLER-B STORM. LOW PRES WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE APPALACHIANS RENEWING TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS WHERE EXACTLY THIS RENEWANCE WILL OCCUR AND HOW INTENSE THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE. OF SOME CERTAINTY IS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WEDGE OF COLD AIR DAMMING BETWEEN THE
      TWO LOWS.

      KEEPING THIS IN MIND…THE TRACK OF THE H85 LOW BECOMES IMPORTANT IN DIAGNOSING DEFORMATION ZONES AND THERMAL FIELDS. WITH THE TRACK ACROSS THE N OH RIVER VALLEY…THROUGH N NEW ENGLAND…WITH RENEWED
      SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT S OF LONG-ISLAND…ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WITH POTENTIAL ICING OVER THE S-TIER. A ROUGH GUESS IS THAT THE DIVISION OF PRECIP-TYPES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CT/RI BORDER.

      Miller B type storms:

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2010/12_18/MillerTypeB.gif

        1. Yup. This one won’t be a Miller A. Certainly looks like
          a Miller B and those can have varied tracks.

          I like the FIM depiction. Oh that would be awesome, but
          even that one keeps all of Southern and Central RI, CT
          as Rain and/or sleet. It has a sharp line along the CT,RI, MA border or so. and has a more East-West line and
          not SW to NE line of demarcation.

  64. Old Salty I was just about to post that.
    A shift in either direction will have a huge impact on precipitation type. Still looks like a Sloporama storm UGH!!!

    The Monday event looks to be a light accumulation should that materialize.

    1. I’m currently thinking Mostly SNOW from Boston area Northward, lesser snow and more sleet/rain to the South, so yes, in those areas a sloporama. I think
      In my area it’s MORE of a snowstorm, with the possibility of a period of sleet.

      Could change for sure. 😀 😀

  68. Good morning, beautiful day out, its 33 degrees at 8am yipee!! heading to the Y, and then going down to the woods with the kids so they can ride bikes on the tracks. Enjoy the weekend!!

      1. It’s Plenty far away with a good CHUNK of WINTER remaining.

        We’ve had exactly 41 days of Winter with 28+21 or 49 Days
        remaining. 😀 😀

  70. Good morning. Update later this morning…

    Update on thinking about how it plays out:
    -Mild weekend (no brainer) but little if any rain.
    -Colder Monday, snow South Coast, but how far north? Maybe Boston.
    -Quiet Tuesday.
    -Storm Wednesday, feeling a colder solution, snow event Boston north, mix south.
    -Cold shot late week.
    -No idea on weekend storm threat but not feeling anything in terms of big snow from what I see so far.

  71. 2 days in a row I get to wear my lighter Spring jacket instead of my heavy duty
    LL BEAN coat. 😀

    Beach day today.

    1. I’m guessing that’s it.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_npac_006_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=npac&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_npac_006_700_rh_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=npac&param=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_npac_006_850_rh_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=npac&param=850_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

  74. Analog of this storm is valentines blizzard of 2000 per NWS.
    I have a feeling this will be a widespread 8+ for many areas from Boston north. I even think if trend continue many south of Boston will be happy.

  75. Well I am hoping for no slop and all snow where I am in CT. I have a feeling here this is going to be an I -84 storm north and west of that all snow south and east snow to mix to rain and in the middle snow to mix.

    1. Could be. NAM’s not bad with its short-term model, and this time the low won’t encounter the kind of cold, dry air that’s been sheering away at storms recently.

      Not feeling good about Wednesday’s storm. Too much uncertainty regarding the amount of cold that will be in place and the track. If it’s a perfect track, Boston and areas to our north and west get a significant storm, but anything inside the benchmark will likely produce slop in the Boston area. If the storm could `wait’ just a little bit (12-24 hours), I think we may be singing a different tune. But, it’s not going to wait around. It’ll be progressive and move right along.

  77. Again cape cod gets the most snow from Mondays event. Tough commute for Wednesday for second event of week and than we go for the trifecta
    Saturday.

  78. Right now it appears the Cape would get the most snow but any shift north or south Monday will make a huge difference. It could go either way. Wednesday morning commute does look tough with different types of precipitation falling across SNE.

    1. Should have added that where you are, JJ, I do think accumulating snows are likely from Wednesday’s storm, unless the low tracks right along the coast or over Boston.

  80. Hi Vicki,

    Could you please post the snow totals and the Logan actual. it’s a new month.

    Thank you, Longshot

    1. I will attempt to. My computer is down…..literally. I have everything backed up but the old gal (actually isn’t that old) is looking as if she may not be revivable. Downloaded Skype and something serious came along with it. I’m heading out to go computer shopping soon. Although at best I typically don’t have computer on for the weekend so I think it would be wise to put them on the gardening page so they remain there for all to see at any time.

  81. Joshua where I am a track inside the benchmark usually means a few inches of snow followed by icy mix and may end as rain. As one of our meteorologist says here in CT this is one of those famous Connecticut mixes snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain.

  84. It could actually hit 50 today. Just got back from baseball evaluations and gorgeous outside. It should help to get rid of the snowcover in my yard.

  86. Just got back from basketball game, Crazy how many kids r riding there bikes in the neighborhood, I counted 7, bringing kids to bike track then heading to Patriot Place, awesome day!! Enjoy, temp has bumped up to 46.1 degrees, no snow left here except big parking lots, thinking about throwing the football around maybe 🙂

  89. Charlie I know the Skins really want a Super Bowl so I wouldn’t be surprised if they got one in Washington. Btw skins play the pats here next season.

  92. What are we looking at for timing for the midweek storm? Last week it was looking like wed night into thurs but now looking like overnight tues through the day wed, is that correct?

  93. 45.6 in framingham

    Longshot. I put the winter numbers on the gardening page. I had to figure the Logan totals quickly so please correct them if there is an error?

      1. Today will be a better day on account of it being less overcast and with no chance of precip. Tomorrow we reverse both.

  94. 12Z euro delays onset until later in the morning on wed. So very progressive. With the more zonal flow comes fast moving systems. Just cant get any blocking

  95. 12z NAM: Runs a bit quick, staring out ok but ending up 6 hours too fast with timing.

    12z GFS: Decent run, but not worth much after next Friday. It won’t figure out the weekend system for quite some time. Fuggettabouttit…

    12z ECMWF: This particular run is one of the better ones of recent runs. I think it has decent timing, but if you compare its depiction of next weekend’s system with that of the GFS, and set aside the fact it’s a week away, it would be confusing. But it’s not really confusing, it ‘s just proof that it’s NOT WORTH TRYING TO FIGURE OUT DETAILS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. We have 2 systems to worry about before that. 🙂

    2. I’m thinking that this system is going to be moving so fast that the amounts may be limited, but it could very well end up all snow at least NW of Boston. Still not sure about this as you move south.

        1. Quite true but I don’t think the speed of the system is going to change much. Just where the ball is rolling on the alley. 🙂

  98. I think the later this storm moves in will not be good for boston as projected daytime temps will be close to 40 degrees

    3. Many many times we have seen surface temps at 40 or even above. Surface temps have much less to do with precipitation type in dynamically driven storms especially as we enter the 2nd half of the “winter weather season”. It’s cold upstairs. Unless the surface is unusually warm, all you need is the cold above and the precip. falling.

  99. LOL, just went back and read the last few BZ blogs that had mentions of some on here. Hilarious how they perceive us on here. That DaveW guy sounds like he knows a lot and would be a good fit over here but i think he would miss the interaction with Eric Fisher who is very interactive on that blog. Its nice to see.

              2. I HATE that blog. Not because of trolls etc. but because it is slow to load and bounces around all over the place. I set my cursor to read something and wham I’m back at the top. Insanely irritating.

    2. DaveW is the one I mentioned a while ago. He posts on ch 7 blog too. There is another one who goes by DAMass also. TK said he thought DaveW knew of this site and was going to look into DAMass. Both are very respectful and sure have an interest in weather. I asked DAMass and he said he is a plow driver as well as having a weather interest

  101. I think 4-6 south of the city, about 6 in the city, 6+ north and west, just an early guess, most will change to rain, good day 🙂

    1. Tossing amounts out this early? That’s early for you. What time should I be over for the Super Bowl spread? Bet you have quite the menu.

  102. I had to laugh with the troll comment on BZ blogging when the comment was made that Todd Gross said a top 5 monster Noreaster weekend. Yeah right!

    1. Does Todd have site back up and running. I was following it a few years back than he just was not updating it.

      1. I can’t find any sites todd has that are up to date. Some interesting comments about his ego and charging plow drivers on the BZ site. I don’t know about plow guys but I do know about his ego. Eric’s comments re predicting far ahead were great. Passionate guy and honest. I like Eric more every time I read his blog.

  103. Every forecast has its challenges but I remain pretty much sold on the idea of all snow with maybe a bit of sleet on a line from Springfield to Worcester to Boston and perhaps as far south as the 495/95/ interchange and the significant mixing would be south and east of there. There are certainly signals that most of this falls in a 6 hour period in the morning hours of Wednesday. The fast zonal flow will contribute to the truncated nature of the storm. ECMWF has caught a little bit the NAM flu in recent months in holding onto the precip too long. Ratios will be in the 10:1 range or so, no 20:1 type bonus this time. Obviously lower ratios, where / if significant sleet mixes in. No amounts yet, as we are still 80 hours away but moderate impact and accumulation storm would be a good prediction.

  104. 12z euro sure came in colder than precious run and lots of qpf albeit in a really quick time. Boy if we had some blocking this winter we would be talking epic amounts.

    1. Amen to that Hadi. We would be buried. What does it have for total qp? I’m still not 100% sold on an all snow or mostly snow scenario for Boston.

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