5:20PM
This week will feature pretty average weather that you might expect for the first week ofΒ February – some cold, a couple storm threats. It’s a slightly different pattern than the one we’ve been in, a flatter flow overall but with enough jet stream energy and moisture to develop storm systems that make a run at the region, a supply of cold air from the north but not nearly to the level of the Arctic outbreaks we have seen in recent weeks.
Day-by-day breakdown:
Monday… Wave of low pressure passes south of New England, close enough to bring some light snow to far southern New England, mainly south of the Mass Pike, with some minor accumulation especially late morning through afternoon.
Tuesday… Quiet weather, chilly air as high pressure dominates.
Wednesday… Another storm, a bit of a mess because some sleet/rain may become involved, especially south of Boston, with mostly snow north of the city. It looks like a moderate sized system, but will be moving right along. So its impact may be somewhat significant as far as traveling goes, but it will not be anything close to a crippling storm. The precipitation situation will be determined by the exact track, which will in turn determine how much warming takes place aloft to bring sleet/rain into the picture. This still needs to be fine-tuned and this will take place as we move through the next 2 days.
Thursday-Friday… Quiet but cold weather as high pressure returns to the region and a fresh shot of polar air comes out of Canada along with it.
Weekend… The next storm threat, but the earliest indications are that this system may be pushed far enough south to avoid a major impact. Long way to go on this one.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow especially south of the Mass Pike late morning on. Accumulations of a coating to around 2 inches from around the Mass Pike southward to the the South Coast. Temperatures steady 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-20 inland valleys, 20-25 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/rain likely with most likely area for all snow northwest of Boston and most likely area for rain near the South Coast. Low 25. High 35.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 28.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 14. High 28.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, especially south. Low 18. High 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow, especially south. Low 16. High 30.
12Z 15km FIM is in. Have a look:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014020212/236/3hap_sfc_f078.png
850MB temps Ok to about 30 miles South of Boston or so. π
Old Salty says:
February 2, 2014 at 5:19 PM
18Z GFS is in and here are the results.
Surface
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020218&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=072
Snow:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020218&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=084
qpf down and therefore snow is way down.
It think Mr. GFS was listening to TK and JMA this afternoon. π π
What’s up with Mr. FIM. He’s feeling feisty. Look at this
24 hour precipitation map for Wednesday:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014020212/236/totp_24h_f090.png
I’m loving that Boston Area Bulls Eye! π π
Hmm
Euro .94
CMC 1.18
FIM 1.0+
Inquiring minds would wonder?
GFS .5-.75
NAM .75-1.00
OS, was it the 18Z GFS with those qp #’s or the 12Z? Reason i say that, GFS to the point where 06Z and 18Z im not taking any stock in, ever
Ace, BOTH were the 18Z
But I just checked the 12Z GFS and it is the same, although snow map showed
more??? π
Sorry, the GFS and NAM
were 18Z, the others were
12Z. π
I’ll wait till the 00Z suite to see if it returns to the 12Z thinking. Just dont trust it
Still thinking this storm comes in say 1am or after on Wednesday. Thanks tk always well done.
That was a question.
I believe it will be into Boston after 1AM.
Thank you TK. I hope you enjoy the game also
Thanks, TK. Not sure what to make of Wednesday’s storm. OS has pointed to the model discrepancies in terms of qpf. There’s cold air behind it but only marginally cold air in front of it, particularly during the day. We’ll see. I do think Boston gets under 6″ of snow and mixing occurs, perhaps even rain at the immediate coast.
I think Hadi pointed out this morning, NWS is using a storm back on Feb 22-23, 2008 as an analog. Looked back at the snowfall amounts for that particular storm, Boston had a “loose” official 8.9″ of snow (even though no areas in the vicinity had anywhere close to that), but regardless, no points from boston south achieved greater than 6,” most had between 2-4” but i think it was due to a lot of mixing. North of boston had between 6-8”
Over/under on this game starting at the official kickoff time of 6:20? Always take the over, lol
Thanks TK! Go Bronco!!!
Thanks tk, found out Brady is rooting for the Seahawks, Go Seahawks!! π
Did he call you?
He’s one of the 71 guests π
HAHAHAHAHA!
Lol joe andruzzis brother is here π
Which one?
The youngest marky
GAMETIME 2-0 seattle
Thanks TK !
Good 1st play by the Broncs! π
Oops
Plenty of time to redeem themselves. At least they held Seattle to the field goal.
I interupt any SB discussion with this WEATHER statement:
Logan reached 55 degrees today which ties the record set in 1988 and 1933!
And now back to SB XLVIII! π
:D. Thank you!!
This game is starting out eerily similar to the pats superbowl game a few years ago…
I was thinking the same thing. I had to remind myself the pats were not playing
Totally
As I said dont underestimate Seattle, extremely tough team to beat right now. I also said to me I could care less who wins but Seattle is tough.
Looking good
BB upped his amounts for tomorrows event.
Forecast totals from NWS for tomorrow
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php
BZ has the highest totals for tomorrow.
My only fear is Seattle is playing with some much energy right now, by the time the 3rd and 4th quarters roll around, they’re gonna be out of gas. Takes a lot more energy to play defense than offense. Denver is just pacing themselves, lol
I don’t think so ace. There a fast paced type team.and another td as I type.
I know its early, but has anyone else been super disappointed with the commercials so far?
The commercials and Denver!!
The only one I liked was Maserati. They are awful IMHO.
Yep so far
How sweet is this game.
Awesome so far π
Loved the coke commercial. And of course sonos…..my new music love.
The Doritos time machine one was my fav so far
Stop me if this sounds familiar…4th and 2, drive to nowhere…epic fail
Defense wins championships
Now that comment Charlie makes sense.
Soβ¦
Manning for a safety
Manning for a pick
Manning for a pick six
All we’re missing is:
Manning for a fumble
I want it ALL.
Tom Brady squandered a few rings away but he never embarrassed himself.
In this country an estimated 108M persons watching the Superbowl this yr, I think it’s 300M worldwide or something like that. Hope the 2nd half is as good as the 1st half.
Nah. I’m never a fan of a lopsided game when you have the best teams. The saving grace is we are not the ones losing badly so I’m not tied up in knots.
Lol Vicki I agree I’m not pacing
I dont know if …..
I’m happier about the halftime score
or
Supremely miserable about how much difference there is btwn the Seattle D and the Pats D.
Thanks TK! π
I’m really enjoying Bruno Mars.
Kind of a goofy show if you ask me. What’s with the no shirts.
That was red hot chile peppers.
Pats wouldnt have a score on the board either, i dont think anyone would against this seattle D
It’s hard to get too excited either way when your team isn’t involved. Let’s say I am surprised by the score even though I was cheering for Denver.
I’m not sure why. There defense is super and that qb can hum that ball like nothing. No surprise here if you’ve seen them play. See what I mean, td right off the bat, good night Denver.
Meant to say I was not surprised.
I think halftime will be the worst thing for seattle. They have been so hyped up it will be hard to rev it up again for the 2nd half.
That will hype things back up!
There not going to slow down ace.
Wow!
OMGβ¦.
So SWEET!!!!
We got it all in this game.
Loving it
Absolute Party!!!
I am switching over to cartoons.
LOL!
You’re watching one. Manning is wile e coyote. The football is a crate of ACME dynamite that’s lit.
Peyton Manning … MVP huh?
Give it to the defense as a whole
Lol talk about a choke job, I’m super happy
Accu weather had 1-3 for wed storm.
I think it will be more than that
And the oddsmakers had Denver by 2.5
I agree more they must be crazy.
Although, wouldnt it be something if we got more snow from tomorrow’s system than wednesdays? lol
Harvin MVP right now IMHO
Not happening ace. They have Maine getting a foot which clearly is not happening.
Denver had the hottest offense in the entire league. They may have a shutout here being watched by millions. Clearly an embarrassment .
Everyone’s been there. They are an excellent team and had a great season. Manning is one of the best. It’s why I hate to see this.
I’m rooting for a shutout now.
Umm…did the 00Z NAM just go nuts for tomorrow??
Snowmap
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=029
I was kidding about tomorrow getting more snow than wed, but could it be?
Denver should concede.
lol, mercy rule!
Congratulations to the Seahawks on there 1st Championship π
Charlie out of curiosity, how do u post here and entertain a large group. Or are you hiding in the kitchen π
I’m always multi tasking but yes I hide sometimes π
Hmmmmmm
I was at the future in-laws this afternoon for sunday dinner and i hid in the bathroom for a while to check on the blog. When i came back to the table my fiance whispered to me, hows the blog? π
Future in laws were probably wondering what the hell you write doing in there, lol.
We’re doing in there.
lol, they know i have bowel problems, so its a win win π
Do you really.
When my SIL disappears, his son tells everyone not to worry……daddy is in his office. Although if he were hosting the party ……
This is crazy. There goes my 34-30 prediction.
Yep might mess mine up a bit too π
Don’t ya just love the nam. Non event tomorrow for most. North and west of boston zilch, boston probably a coating inch at best. South shore areas 2 inches and cape cod 3-6.
Humiliating
Darn.
Yeah, I was hoping for the shutout but I realize I’m being a pig. I should be happy that my list is damn near complete. The only thing I’m missing is a blocked punt.
This outcome is almost worse for the Pats. I know the score was close, but in reality, Denver outplayed the Pats in every way. If Denver beat Seattle in the superbowl, we could say the Pats were closer to being the best team. This superbowl has proven how far off the Pats are from being a SERIOUS super bowl contender in the near future. Pats are getting worse while everyone else is getting better in the NFL.
This is a message to all teams thinking it’s about a QB. It’s about defenseβ¦ Can you here me Bellichick.
Totally agree, always been the philosophy always
In part. But I don’t believe this is representative of how Denver plays. However, I was going to remind anyone gloating about this game of that. Now if Kraft would go into his office and BB would dislodge his head maybe ….just maybe…they’d build us a team for next year
They have, for 2 decades, it’s very tough, I expect them to do the best they can and they do IMO, can’t wait for July, glad manning got humiliated tonight, now we don’t have to listen or watch him, I’m super happy π
For heavens sakes tell that to your guests …..she said with all due respect. π
Sorry Vicki, I’m gonna ride this for all I can. You’ll forgive me in time (I hope)
For you…..not a thing to forgive. π
π π
OMAHA, OMAHA, OMAHA..
π
Where’s Tebow?
Doing T Mobile commercials ??
Way too many lame car commercials. Glad i got to see the John Stamos commercial with some of the cast from Full House!
I had to rewind when I realized who they were. That was fun. Lame commercial but good to see them.
00Z NAM waaay warm for wed storm
Well i’ll be damned, it actually does show more snow tomorrow than wed! π
This game really is embarassing for Peyton. In Brady’s 2 super bowl losses he was at least competitive and u could go as far as to say the Pats were within a play of winning those 2 super bowls
Peyton can choke when the heat is on.
OMG!
I got my Manning fumble too! The football gods were good to me today!
There’s your Manning fumble retrac!
This was probably his worst game of his career.
And there’s my favorite commercial. I love those Budweiser horses
AGREE!
From last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTbLBL2P6YA
Of all ads that is my all time favorite. My oldest had the same relationship with her first pony who we had until it was time to say goodbye. She even had the exact same red lead rope. Thanks for posting that. π
Nice.
Pitchers and catchers, Feb 15th.
I’m happy for Pete.
Tweet from comcast sports net. Charlie you making up stories again? What source told you he was cheering for Seahawks.
@CSNNE: Tom Brady admits he’s rooting for Peyton Manning and Wes Welker in the Super Bowl. http://t.co/HFT7N8w20A #PatriotsTalk @PhilAPerry
Hmmmm…..so who has the true story???
I do. Tom was at my house to watch the game……but He swore me to secrecy.
Wait how can he be at your house and Charlie’s?
Oh snap…..I think by secrecy he also meant I shouldn’t say he was here.
Maybe Gisele was at Charlie’s. π
You do not even know how happy I am right now π NO RING FOR WELKER π π π and no ring for Manning. GOOD FOR PETE HE DESERVES IT! Now back to chearing on my patriots.
BZ’s “edited” map for tomorrow
http://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/snowfallfeb32.png?w=420&h=236
That was an epic embarrassment by a quarterback who is not in the same conversation as Montana or Brady, and never will be. Manning was awful. Worse than the score even indicates. While I think NE would have lost to Seattle, I am convinced they would have managed to put up a fight. Denver looked like a college team. Fundamental mistakes in all facets of the game as well as coaching. Most importantly, lapses in concentration on the part of a man who does not shine in the spotlight. Yes, he won a Superbowl with the Colts, and is an excellent quarterback, or at least one who racks up great regular season numbers. But, he can be ghastly bad when he is bad, like he was against the Patriots at Foxboro earlier this year, and like this evening. His brother is much better in big post-season games. Not a better quarterback, but more composed under pressure.
Well said John.
Manning was awful and committed EVERY awful mistake a QB could make.
That may all be true …… I would also submit that Denver never had to raise their level this post season. They got San Diego, due to an upset and then the overacheiving, but not a championship level team in the Pats.
Seattle had to go through Drew Brees and then beat a talented, very, very tough San Francisco team.
I think the high core of the NFC is much better than the high core of the AFC. Put another way, is Peyton and Denver had been in Seatte’s division and had to play 4 out of 16 games vs Seattle and San Fran, his 55 TD passes would have been around 40, naybe even fewer, as Arizona and other NFC teams were good as well.
Sorryβ¦Joshua!
Brady was a fluke play (Tyree’s helmet catch) and a Welker drop away from 5 Superbowls. He was not great in those two Superbowls, but he was certainly good enough to win. The Patriots should have won both games. I have only seen Brady stink up the joint twice in the post season (once against the Jets, and once against the Ravens). But, both games were not the Superbowl, and Brady was not the epic failure during those two games that Manning was this evening. People will remember this dreadful loss, particularly given the MVP year Manning had and his prolific offense.
As far as Brady rooting for Welker and Manning, sure, I understand that. Brady is a nice person, who does not hold grudges. He knows Manning is very good, and wishes him well. That is fine. I can say this, Welker will be thinking of that drop he could have held on to in the last Superbowl NE played in. He would have had his ring. Now, the chances are slim that he will get another crack at it.
I think you are right about Brady. This will hurt manning.
Alright, so …..
Mon, Tues, Thurs and Friday are school days that should get in easily …..
Wednesday’s the wild card.
Early dismissal tomorrow? π
I cannot believe Zuri Berry’s posts on boston.com on Manning’s “numbers:” 280 yards, most completions (34) in a Superbowl. I just want to tell him that this is where statistics are garbage. Pure garbage. The eyeball test is all you need. Manning was horrible at every moment that it really mattered. He only got 280 yards and 34 receptions because they were so far behind. It was almost exclusively in garbage time. Who cares that he got 34 receptions! It would be like saying, look at what Brady got against Denver two weeks ago: 277 yards and a TD. Wow! Who cares. Meaningless stats. To be fair to Brady, Brady’s ~280 yards were a lot better than Manning’s! Plus, Brady had no interceptions.
Vicki I also had ex patriot Chris Sullivan as a guest, he’s from North as well, also Anthony Sherman, he plays for the chiefs π
Congrats to the Seahawks! Wow never thought this would be a blow out.
Tom, you make some excellent points. The NFC is better right now. The two top gun teams in the NFC are similarly oriented. Similar QBs, similar style, and similar tough defense. Don’t underestimate the Patriots chances next season, however. With a healthier roster and a few additions here and there, they will be very competitive.
this team reminded me of the early 2000s like i said over and over again, even when the big guys went down , can’t wait for next year
tonight winter weather majority south of the pike. maybe coatings up to rt2 coridor.
next storm. Moderate snowfall(level 3 event) for anyone that has no mixing.
If the 00Z GFS has any idea of the pattern then the Mid Atlantic better sharpen up their snow shovels and tune up their snow blowers. π
The way it looks, I would certainly agree, but I think we will be looking at radical model swings this week.
Have to go to work downtown today. Expecting maybe an inch or possibly two. Can’t see much more than that.
TV mets in the same range for Wednesday’s accumulation, 4-8, 5-10 and 6-10 depending on which station you’re watching.
Good morning!!! The Seahawks r still partying π
Should we read into the euro showing .34 qpf for tonight’s event.
That storm on the GFS looks sweet for next weekend/week. If only it would hold. So far off.
The model should only swing one or two dozen times before then.
That was an epic fail by manning. He should be ashamed of that performance. Seattle was clearly the best team in football but my gosh Denver could have put up a better fight. My skins probably would have played. This was manning’s chance to cement his legacy as of the greats and he fell flat on his face. I still respect the guy and think he’s a class act and feel bad in a way for him.
Manning pissed down his pants. WHY oh WHY didn’t he do that when the Pat’s
played them. Oh, wait a minute, the Pat’s don’t have a defense. Yeah, that’s the ticket. π π
Hadi I feel badly for manning because you know it is anything but representative of his talent. My guess is he is ashamed as it certainly was an epic failure.
If the gfs is right watch out NC and southern VA.
Euro snow map for the next 240 hours. Frame it baby
http://imgur.com/6prG6No
Pretty Impressive. Now let’s see IF we can get at least 1/2 of that. π π
Defense wins championships and Seahawks proved this last night.
Snow starting to fall out my window here in CT with many schools closed. Expecting 2-5 inches where I am. EURO was the only model picking up on this system late last week.
Yawn, Morning all.
Only watched part of the Stupid Bowl. PATHETIC is all I can say.
Onto weather…ACTIVE for sure.
Re: Today
Looking at radar, echoes are moving almost due East with only a slight
Northward component. The snow is forecast to get up here. We shall see.
Going to be a very sharp cutoff. Btw the radar echoes go to strong very quickly
after precip starts.
Re: Wednesday
Still looking good, although latest runs “Appear” to indicate a bit of a Northward
shift in the mix line. Most models still keep it snow in Boston, but mix not to far
to the South. Canadian wants to mix in quite a bit of SLEET. GFS and Euro keep it snow. Nam mixing in sleet.
Re: next weekend
Well, the “Potential” is there for a sizeable system. GFS, EURO and Canadian
all advertising said storm. Long way off, but so far, so good.
Will take a look at the FIM now.
Have a great day and enjoy. π
Fim for Wednesday:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014020300/236/3hap_sfc_f066.png
Fim for next weekend:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014020300/236/3hap_sfc_f192.png
That’s a monster and IF it comes closer, YIKES!!!
GFSm Euro and Canadian ALL have it close.
NWS has hoisted the Winter storm Watch for Wednesday already.
They are calling for 8-10 inches at this time:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/
They are NOT bullish on much snow getting to Boston today and only have
Winter weather advisory along the South Coast.
A little more from the NWS about today and Wednesday:
https://scontent-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/t1/1610111_570060599754982_1153852139_n.jpg
North of Hartford, CT I don’t think sees much snow at all today. The further south you are the more snow you will see. Looks like NYC area will be the bullseye for storm.
Good morning. In addition to these two storms Al Roker said there is a potential for an epic coastal storm late in the weekend where snow could be measured in feet.
TK mentioned this storm above (1:59 am). It should only change its track 20 times by the end of this coming weekend.
I heard that to. One storm threat at a time.
I agree – I thought that was a rather major comment for one week ahead.
Indeed, there is that “Potential”, but IMPOSSIBLE to sort out
any details at this point. As I posted above, ALL of the models have
something in that time frame. Certainly a watcher as it all sorts itself
out in the coming days.
Let’s say there IS a storm, it could be a monster direct hit, it could be an
inside runner rain event and it could be an Out to sea job or anything in between.
Just watch and enjoy. π
NAO also looks to trend towards neutral around then too…..
Hi Vicki, can you post our snow forecasts?
There in the garden section.
Sorry, Longshot – I had said somewhere in all of the discussion that I put them in the gardening section but meant to reply directly to you and forgot. Thanks, John.
No problem Vicki. Starting to flurry here in pembroke.
Nws for sure seems think mix from Boston south. I can see it from Plymouth south but who knows. Track is key.
looking at the nam it has the mix go well north of boston. with much less snow. more on the terms of 3-6 across areas north of the pike with 6-10 north of the nh and vt boarder.
gfs. much wider spread 6-10 inches north of the pike less south
i do not have the euro snowmap can someone post it?
Storm still two days away and going to be many more changes
NAM also had 6+” of snow for all of us today. I have been most disappointed in the performance of the NAM, especially in its sweet spot timeframe. Just awful.
And the SREF has been awful too. No consistent short range model to rely on is a bad thing
For what it’s worth, here’s Henry’s latest numbers!
The storm Wednesday will be a 6-18″ snowstorm. The Sunday to Monday will be a 12-24″ snow event for top amounts.
One thing about HM is that he is consistent in his forecasts. π
where was this? can you put the link up
Would be fun to see a one-year anniversary BIG storm next weekend!! I question that it would be of the same proportions as it seems very unusual to have to that large so close together.
Oh – without any destruction along the coasts
astronomical low tides next weekend, coast could take a 2-3 ft storm surge during afternoon tide and probably still only get minor splashover.
It was this past weekend, thank goodness there were no storms, with massively high astronomical tides.
All in the timing. π
re: Wednesday:
12Z NAM still shows the mix line move North of Boston, but still shows about
7 inches of snow for Boston. FWIW, NAM has been trending colder and colder
with each run coming more and more in line with the GFS and EURO.
Here is the latest NAM snow map for Wednesday:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020312&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=066
Got a coating of snow already and its starting to stick to the roads. Going to be that heavy wet snow with temps near freezing mark. First time this winter season getting a wet snow.
According to the NWS out of Upton, NY with this storm the NAM pretty close to the EURO for QPF.
Not sure oldsalty about that nam. Be carefull
John,
I was simply reporting the results and indicating that it was slowly coming
in line with GFS and EURO as it got closer to the event.
It was not a prediction nor did I endorse the NAM.
Believe me I am well aware of the NAM’s shortcomings.
I’m pretty much in the EURO camp for Wednesday’s event.
π π π
First Flakes started falling in Boston a few minutes ago.
π
Snow just kicked in here.
NAM thicknesses too warm, at least in my experience. I recall one storm it had mild thicknesses to the US/Canadian Border and there ended up being decent snows and cold temps in central NH and ME.
Visibility dropping here. Probably 1.5 miles or so.
“Beginning” to look serious. π π
Certainly MORE so that I expected this soon.
This will not be a boring of weather here.
The trend for the mid week storm is colder. Gil Simmons saying the shoreline of CT may go to a mix but may not go over to rain while inland looks to be mostly snow with maybe some mix. A change from yesterday where it looked to go over to rain for the shoreline and for inland a mix after several inches of snow.
Snowing in Plymouth. Let’s hope they don’t cancel afternoon kindergarten for an inch of snow!
By the way, with the shift in the low track ….. (I think just a few days ago, the primary was headed for Cleveland and the secondary was just SE of NYC ….. to now a benchmark track of the secondary), I am in for the colder scenario. All snow or 95% snow at Boston and a good percent snow here in Marshfield with maybe a sleet or sleet/snow mixture at end.
I’m thinking a heavy, crusty top 4-6 inches here in eastern Marshfield. Around 7″ at Logan, with a max 8-10 in the Merrimack Valley or extreme southern NH.
Its the type of snow coming where take it easy shoveling. I often refer to wet snow as cement snow since that’s what it feels like when your shoveling.
Look, the Charlie Hole is developing. π π π
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0
NAM are way too warm imo, blend the EURO and GFS and we have a widespread 6-12 inche more north less south.
Beware.. ALL models are very likely over forecasting precipitation…..again.
Tk,
You and JMA have been saying this. Can you please explain WHY
you think this?
The NWS thinks 8-10 inches, which is consistent with some of the QPF
forecasts. What are they seeing that you are not? Where is the discrepancy?
Very curious.
Much thanks
I am also curious as to your reasoning. For the first time in a long time we are finally going to be tapping into some Gulf moisture which will help verify the precip amounts. Are you more concerned with the progressive nature of the storm limiting amounts?
Visibility just dropped some more here. Down to about 1.25 miles.
Looking REALLY NICE! π π
Down to about 1 mile and ever so slowly dropping some more. π
Can you tell us why TK?
GFS shows .29 for today which I guess we should assume is way to high per TK
Based on what I am seeing so far, sure looks like it WILL verify. π
Looking at radar it seems like we will get more than a dusting here in the city.
I guess!!!
Vis down UNDER 1 MILE. .5 to .75 and looking REALLY SERIOUS out there
like it is a FULL_FLEDGED SNOW STORM!!!!
And I am NOT joking or exaggerating one little bit. π
Just got back from Dorchester and was no big deal there. Seems to be a bit more intense here in marshfield now though with heavy mist like snow but sticking lightly .
Here’s the 12Z GFS snow map for Wednesday:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020312&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=084
Looking like a 6-10 inch snowfall for Wednesday.
I am downtown on the tenth floor looking acros the river and can barely make out some buildings on the Cambridge side. Falling a little heavier and flakes a little larger.
Visibilities across the area ranging from .25 mile at Hartford to 1.25 at Logan at
10:54 AM. .5 Mile vis all the way out to Springfield.
.5 Vis at Norwood. Drops off QUICKLY North of Boston.
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but I’ll do it anyway!!
12Z GFS Sports a Pretty Hefty COASTAL STORM for the weekend:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=174
Snowmap:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020312&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=180
Vis lightened up a bit here, now up to 1 to 1.25 mile.
It is snowing, yes, but too warm at the surface to accumulate. I think we’ll see some similar issues on Wednesday, though a colder scenario is not out of the question. It will snow more on Wednesday than today, and there will be more accumulation (a few inches in Boston, more to our north and west), but surface temperatures will likely be a problem at the coast. In fact, I do not think the Boston roadways will be impacted much with a daytime storm on Wednesday. We shall see. Until I’m proven wrong I’ll remain stubborn about Wednesday. The weekend storm set-up looks more promising.
Wow, are you stubborn.
It will not be an issue come Wednesday.
Boston will come in with something on the order of 6-10 inches,
With No mixing or at worst Minimal mixing.
The roads WILL be impacted.
I think that snow depth map across SNE is going to look a lot different than it did twenty four hours ago once we get past these two storm systems this week.
Why so stubborn Joshua? the colder scenario is pretty much a gtd in Boston.
What you say goes right hadi? I actually think josh has a good handle on the storm and makes alot of sense.
Weekend system looks great on the GFS!!
I see no problem with much mixing in Boston on Wed.
It will also be snowing harder for a longer period of time on Wednesday. You have to remember it was 55 yesterday in Boston so the ground was relatively warm prior to the snow today. That won’t be the case on Wednesday
Regarding today, it’s now looking like Boston got into the heavier stuff only briefly
and it appears only light snow the rest of the way. We’ll see if anything heavier
pushes Northward. Was looking good for a bit, now, not so much. Oh well.
Onto Wednesday.
So boston got exactly what it was suposto get. Perfect forcast if you ask me. Nam over amped boston again and that’s why it’s the least model of choice. Nam is over amping Wednesdays event as well. No double digit snow in boston is my call now.
actually NAM is on the low end for Wed.
I don’t think anyone has been calling for double digits snows for Boston on Wed.
Yeah today was never in question for Boston. I think for Wed logan come in at 8.2
0.5 tops for Logan today… 5.5 Wed.
Party Pooper.
Why so low on Wednesday?
Juuust under warning criteria π
Why overdone? They have been doing it for months. π
I agree 85% and disagree 15% as that has not always been the case with every storm these past few months. But with the Gulf opening up to enhance these storms, I’m surprised you are going to stick with your conservative stance.
I guess the bigger question is why have the models been overdone. Pattern? Crappy models (all of them?) I’m not sure that’s a question that can be answered
I tend to agree, the biggest issue is the speed and that it’s a daytime storm but I think over 6 inches at logan.
TK what is you top amount for Wed and where?
I think Boston gets less than 4 inches on Wednesday, and there will be some mixing as well as temps will be slightly above freezing. This is not a particularly cold storm, nor an intense one. Some good snows in Framingham, Worcester, Merrimack Valley, Southern NH. Very little south of Hingham along the coast. Inland to our south a different story. I’m out on a limb again, and someone may saw it off. I’m just not seeing sufficient cold associated with Wednesday’s storm. It’s important also to note how `bright’ it is today, compared to, say, December 19th. One can definitely notice the difference, even on a cloudy day. While it is early February and not March, I do think the fact that Wednesday is a mostly daytime storm with little umph will impact totals and lessen the impact on roadways in particular, even if it is all snow (which I doubt).
4 inches for Boton with mixing BECAUSE temperature above freezing.
I couldn’t disagree more.
Temp likely to be below or at freezing and even if slightly above,
it will be cold enough above to prevent mixing.
Josh I’m seeing that today down on the south shore. Very bright with snow covered parking lots, drive ways etc. main roads fine and snowing at a decent clip.
John it was in the 50’s yesterday and that has had an effect today. This won’t be the case on Wednesday
12Z GFS for wed. Different view other than instantweathermaps. Image on the right total snowfall for the event in our area.
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t31/1557144_642547992459129_776913578_o.png
Interesting it shows the highest totals right on top of boston and points west and south. Highest totals not north. I like alan huffman’s images the best
TK’s style is to start low and raise them before it starts.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg
Everything is getting white here. Snow starting to stick to roads.
More than a dusting here now.
BM on Euro?
Logan at .6 so far and by now I would think close to 1.
I judge the storm impact on whether or not Arod shows up on the blog. So far no Arod. π
Coming down at a really good clip now
For wed euro has just over 1 inch qpf.
12Z Canadian comes in with .79 for Boston.
Hadi,
Looking at the Wundermap, Euro looks to drop about 1 foot
of snow on the Boston Area for Wednesday.
Could you please post the snow map when you have it available.
I think they are going to be big.
Thanks
As soon as its ready!
Looking at radar we should get 2-3 in Boston IMO. PVD at 1.8 so far.
Went home for lunch. Just got back.
ALL side roads totally snow covered and slippery. Main roads slushy due to SALTING.
About 1 inch on the ground. π π
TK, I’ll take the OVER on the .5 inch of snow at Logan. π
Went home for lunch. Just got back.
ALL side roads totally snow covered and slippery. Main roads slushy due to SALTING.
About 1 inch on the ground. π π
TK, I’ll take the OVER on the .5 inch of snow at Logan. π π
Sorry. Don’t know how that happened.
π
Got just under an inch here, still snowing lightly, occasionally heavy, should end between 3-4pm.
Taunton at 1.7
In Brighton – most definitely a bit over an inch.
For sure over an inch here in Southie
More than that here as expected. Should be winding down soon.
Good afternoon all. Wide spread 1-3 inches today from Boston south. Wednesday storm has some origin from the gulf of mexico with more liquid. A secondary storm will attemp to lock the colder air in place. Should remain all snow in boston with mixing confined to the south shore, cape and islands. Due to the speed of the storm look for 4-8 inches widespread. Four on the cape, 7 in Boston and 8+ from framingham north and west.
Hi Arod, Not bad.
I do think you are a little low for Boston. We shall see. π
btw, not much doubt that there will be a Coastal with this system.
So happy the broncos lost,
Anybody surprised by that should not be. The score was to me a little bit of a surprise as they got beat at every single aspect of the game, but the loss was not. Manning did look the worst I have ever seen.
I’m guessing we have about 1.5 – 2 inches here (probably about 30-40 ft elevation above the ocean). When I go down the hill to get into town center right at sea level, it wouldnt surprise me if there was a bit less.
Was down there Tom around noon time Tom and not to bad. Visited the mug for something to eat.
Nice !!
The roads are in great shape. See lots of pavement.
Vicki I also had ex patriot Chris Sullivan as a guest, heβs from North as well, also Anthony Sherman, he plays for the chiefs
Little Androzzi said Brady was going for Seahawks, hadi I don’t make up stories, c’mon!!
Oh Tom Nalen from the old Broncos was here, he was the only player rooting for the broncos, only cause he played for the broncos with Elway lol u guys r funny, it’s ok π
Well Brady was asked last night and he said the Broncos
It’s possible he might have been kidding, but I thought he was serious, he might have π
how you getting these people even close to you
Intensity of precip Wednesday, into previous cold, somewhat dry air …..along with ENE or even NE winds ……. I think most areas are going to snow at the 25-29F range. Perhaps Logan itself is 32F, but may be 31F or even 30F during peak intensity.
3 inches of snow so far here where I am in Watertown, CT. Forecast on track. First wet snowfall of the winter.
Wed will also be a scenic, pasty, wet snow:)
Ryan Maue β@RyanMaue 14m
Is ECMWF snowfall guidance still in witness protection? Stock up on yard sticks.
LOVE that tweet. Hilarious.
Could be a sizable storm ugh
Anyone with insight on temperatures aloft for Weds?
Aloft at what level and where?
850MB temperatures should remain below freezing from South of Boston
Northward, Say about 20-30 Miles South or so. South of there, it goes above freezing so snow would NOT be support, but sleet still possible.
This event today was a suprise, was not expecting 2 inches of snow, it’s very manageable but unexpected.
How can you say unexpected? The Euro has been all over it for days. π
FINALLY sitting at my desk and able to look stuff over today for the first time.
Small Medium and Large this week? π
Small, Large and Gargantuan. π π π
just like my weekly intake of fries at Wendy’s.
LMAO!
Small, medium and possibly large, BUT I would like to get your take temps aloft for Weds please.
I think it’s cold enough aloft for mostly snow from Boston north Wednesday. I think if sleet/rain become prominent this will be to the south, with rain confined to the South Coast and parts of Cape Cod / Islands.
I think overall the forecasting this year has sucked (this blog excluded of course). Too many “not getting any” turning into “getting some” usually at the last minute. Makes it hard to trust anythign I hear about the next two storms.
To make it worse, NOWCASTING barely works.
HA true enough! Sometimes I wonder if too much technology causes more issues (like how social media floods you with information). Maybe it’s too much reliance on computers.
There have been a number of OTS scenarios that turned out to be something, that’s for sure. At least we watch things here and nothing will totally sneak up
on us. Surprises to be sure, but we catch them. π
We sort of catch them.
Coming down harder than ever in Woburn…everything covered and building up. Certainly not a coating or dusting. Based on the radar it’s far from over.
It’s funny .. on the eastern side of town it’s gotten lighter. We have about 0.3 inch now.
My forecasting has been less than stellar this winter. Hit a few, missed a few. I would rather hit most of them. Nobody will hit all of them. Impossible.
And yes, there is too much technology. While great in one aspect, dangerous in others, from a forecasting standpoint.
Blog = updated!