Weekend Update

190 Comments

5:14PM

This update contains no major changes to the forecast, just a little more detail for what is coming into focus and updated thinking of what is still too far away for significant detail.

Remainder of the weekend… Clouds started to limit the sun Saturday afternoon, and a now mostly cloudy sky will continue through Sunday, initially from a disturbance passing south of New England, and then from another small but fairly potent disturbance moving in from the west. This second disturbance will bring a period of snow to southeastern New England Sunday night, with some minor accumulation possible. Some of the snow may be enhanced from Cape Ann to Cape Cod MA due to a north wind blowing over the ocean water.

Next week… The disturbance will exit the region early Monday but enough instability left behind may trigger some additional snow showers. Dry but cold weather will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday. The next storm system is due around Thursday. There are plenty of uncertainties on the track and precipitation type with this system with guidance showing anything from a system passing east of the region with snow, to a coast-hugging low with more rain than anything. I’ll still leave the wording very general on this low confidence system. Whatever the result, it should be departing Friday but not followed by very cold air, but a milder end to the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows from 10 outlying areas to 20 coastal areas. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers may develop from Cape Ann to Cape Cod in the afternoon with local coatings of snow possible. Isolated snow showers elsewhere with little or no accumulation. Highs in the 20s. Wind light N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing west to east early, ending west to east by dawn. Widespread accumulation of a coating to 2 inches likely, with the potential for a few areas of 2-4 inches especially Cape Ann and Cape Cod. Lows 15-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 25-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow and rain possible. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers possible. Low 35. High 42.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 44.

190 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  2. Thanks TK! Great pic on the last blog. I saw a rainbow in that sky cover about the same time. Some interesting stuff close to sunset tonight.

    1. Yes ….. Not a lot of snow falling currently, but huge snow flakes that are.

      Dark to my north, partially clear to my south.

  10. Well ….. More interesting differences btwn the EURO and the GFS …..

    GFS hinting at a return to long term very cold ….

    The EURO projects a 980 mb low next Thursday night along with other future interesting ideas ….

    I think we are going to see a set of wilder changes than usual in future 12 hr runs of each model.

    1. Tom, I was looking at the models early this am and there is definitely more going on than there was a day or so ago. Seeing “stuff” for Thursday-Friday and then early next week.

      On a different note, my sister lives outside of Portland, OR and she got 8″ of snow, something they never have. Nobody knows how to drive and there are no snow plows and no one has a snow shovel.

      1. I saw that about Portland, Oregon. I didnt know the cold air had gotten all the way to the coastline.

        A lot of areas in the US unequipped for snowfall are seeing it this winter. Makes me appreciate that our region has the means to deal with it.

  11. BB on BZ has different areas getting a coating and some areas getting 1-2″. You really have to look at the snow map to understand what areas get what.

    Has Thursday as a close rain/snow call and has the possible weekend event as maybe snow. To tough to call this early.

  12. Level 1 snow event with the snow coming tonight. 1-3 inches Watch for some slippery spots if traveling tonight.
    Late week looks a lot more interesting which could bring a SLOPORAMA to SNE.

  13. High think clouds moving in here. Has been sunny all morning.

    I was looking at the instant maps. Ok stop laughing :). Is there something indicated by GFS on the 24th? I’m asking because i know it is too far out but am more curious because i want to see if I’m using this app correctly. Tx

        1. Hahaha. I’m trying to learn from the best :). If I can figure how to post what I’m seeing, maybe someone can look. I thought it looked huge ……maybe I’m wearing rose colored glasses

            1. She is great Vicki. Thanks for asking. My Uncle is taking them on a cruise the last week of this month and then they are in Florida for the month of March. She has not complained very much since her gallbladder came out and is excited to go. The doctors said she came very close to passing away when she first got to the hospital with the pancreatitis in August at the beginning of her 5 week stay. I can’t believe she is back to almost normal now. We are hoping to go to the cape if the weather cooperates next Sunday to see them before they leave.

  15. Currently, no ocean snow here.

    re: Thursday’s event???????????????????????????????????

    Canadian and FIM take it Mostly OTS with a slight graze
    Euro. GFS and UKMET get us in one degree or another, but precipitation type
    looks to be more rain. btw, 06Z DGEX nails us with snow, especially SE sections.

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f108.gif

    System appears quite robust with all models.

    Euro wants to keep sending us systems. 😀 😀

    We shall see what shakes out.

  16. its my brothers birthday today he turns 14 we going to the boston aquarium today to see those new tanks 🙂

  18. Good morning, went to church, now we just got to the indoor skateboard park, and this place is packed, they r just opening

  19. Extremely light dusting of almost diamond dust kind of snow about 7:30AM here in Woburn.

    No big changes to the update above. No big difference between a coating and a couple inches as it will be powder fluff and essentially evaporate the next couple days.

    Models still trying to figure out the storm threat later in the coming week. And I still feel this system does not have a major future to it, regarding its impact on SNE.

  21. In case you were wondering, my opinion is still the same regarding the Thursday threat. No real phasing. Southern stream feature is weaker and further offshore (grazing with precipitation, type TBD) and the northern stream sends one short wave too far ahead and hangs the other one back too late to phase.

  23. Looks like a quiet stretch of weather with a couple of harmless features affecting SNE for the next 5-7 days.

  24. Been a beautiful stretch of weather. I know it’s `boring’ in that there’s been no precipitation, except Wednesday. But, if you like a real winter landscape, chilly but not too cold air, and certainly enough sun to make it look sparkling at times, this past week has been great.

    Bumped into some British tourists on Beacon Hill (family of four), and they were telling me that they absolutely love this weather, in part, because it’s so rare back home. The kids were enjoying their first time sledding (ever).

    Mets in Europe are saying that the nearly continuous rain and wind storms that have plagued Ireland, the British Isles, but also France, Belgium, Holland, and Scandinavia, will continue. It’s been a 3-month barrage of powerful Atlantic lows (with very low pressure). Even though it’s been essentially a train of lows traversing the Atlantic at very high speeds, there’s been an area of low pressure just to the west or north of Scotland EVERY day for the past 80 days. Yes, every day. Must be brutal for anyone who is suffering from seasonal mood disorders.

      1. I used stromg words. 😀

        Almost S**T my pants when I saw this.
        Probably still a fantasy, but just the saem, pretty awesome.

        1. Worcester Hills would be ok with that. Storm like that screws the coast because of wind. Would make its own cold air for interior.

  26. That is one heck of a coastal bomb depicted by that particular model.
    I don’t see that happen. I think that model is on steriods.

    1. I dunno. 12 Euro has a nice system, but of course not that strong. :d

      Will post from wundermap shortly.

      1. Not sure I’ve ever seen a winter storm with pressure that low around these parts. Fantasy, but pretty picture nonetheless.

          1. Let’s see of GFS phases too.

            Still far off but maybe onto something.

            I’ll start to bite of GFS starts hinting.

            1. According to DT, the GFS is the only model left still depicting a mostly OTS scenerio, and of course TK as well 😉

    1. I don’t remember the pressure but thanks. I drove through that storm from North Carolina through to Florida for Spring break. Nightmare. 1 out of 3 cars in the parking lot at the hotel in Daytona had blown out windows from wind picking up stones off the beach and smashing out the glass.

  28. The Weather Space.com (not sure how reliable it is) is saying the “most reliable model” is predicting Superstorm of 93 like storm for east coast. Ummm…i like the Canadian, but come on, most reliable model?? Here we go again with hype.

          1. Where weather meets ratings. An embarrassment if you ask me. Feels to me like there should be a hippocratic oath for mets to keep this s**t at bay.

    2. Some cannot resist lighting the hype fuse. It’s just too exciting for them, like a power trip, being able to “inform the masses”.

      It’s too bad that people actually make important plans based on it, too.

      1. With all these renegade weather sites and facebook weather sites there needs to be some kind of censorship or monitoring or something for accountability. It is ridiculous these outlets can just claim anything they want. Some people rely solely on these outlets for their info. and they take advantage of that fact.

        1. I generally have no big problems with amateur sites so long as they are COMPLETELY HONEST. One would think that the majority of people would know better than base their life plans on these forecasts, but instead you see many comments like “you guys are always better than the professionals”, which is not true at all. Most of those forecasts are not made through data analysis and applied meteorological experience, they are modified opinions of existing forecasts. It’s very easy to pass them off as your own.

          It’s kind of a slap in the face to those of us who toiled through 4+ years of college to earn a degree in the field and do the best we can, be it in forecasting, research, or whatever else. But so long as the general public is in love with hype, and no restrictions are present on public posting of forecasts by non meteorologists, we will continue to have this issue.

          1. I agree tk, it’s very sad that people will cancel plans over hearing the big ones coming to only get nothing lol, I’m glad I don’t watch much news

  29. The Superstorm of 93 was the first big snowstorm I could remember in my life. I was 9 years old at the time and the snow came up close to my knee caps. The storm hit on a Saturday. A few days prior a former weather forecaster here in CT said the big khuna is coming Saturday and it sure did. Biggest storm ever to effect the entire east coast of the U.S.

  30. In a snow lovers dreams, though I wouldn’t mind a historical storm, I believe we have lots of snow/rain mix type storms going through the rest of Feb and March, we shall see 🙂

    1. Most of us wouldnt get much snow from that storm depicted in the cmc anyways. It would be a historic sloporama with emphasis on slop

      1. He might be licking his wounds for a couple of days after saying the models would come around for tonight/tomorrow (which I’m still waiting for)

        Then again, maybe not.

  32. Got to watch and see if the trend continues east or comes back a little closer to the coast. Great accumulating snow for parts of the South and Mid Atlantic on that run. Here snow totals are still good for a moderate snow event.

  33. We now have winter storm Pax with the storm system theat COULD POTENTIALLY effect us later this week.

  34. Can’t wait for the Superstorm 1993 comparisons based on one run of one model.

    Not even close. 🙂

    1. It’s funny cause even on a educated blog as this 1 it begins the conversation as maybe just maybe it’s true, lol I know it’s not, but u can imagine what the major news outlets r saying, TV RATINGS!! THE BIG ONES COMING,,,,,AGAIN!! Lol

      1. I can’t believe how hard it snowed this morning from the blizzard that was forecast 6 days in advance. I think my visibility was about 12 miles. 😉

  35. Superstorm to me is in a league by itself for having the biggest impact on the entire east coast from a winter storm. To me there has not been a storm like that to have an impact on the entire east coast as that storm did.

    1. Even beyond that. Quebec was majorly impacted, as were the Maritime Provinces. And down in Cuba, thousands of square miles of sugarcane were flattened by severe thunderstorms directly associated with the storm.

    2. I actually don’t even remember that storm as a significant snow producer for here, how much did we get?

      1. In my area (NW suburbs) we had a solid foot then changed to rain at the end, which then froze and turned the snowcover into a foot of cement.

  37. For what some are calling an incredible winter (which it really isn’t, just somewhat colder and snowier than climate normals), Boston is only 0.32 inch to the plus side for precipitation since January 1. That is why as of the most recent Drought Monitor report, most of MA is still classified as “abnormally dry”. At least this is one step up from “moderate drought” which we suspected may happen due to near to slightly above normal precipitation since December 1. In the current pattern, we’ll keep pace at best, but more likely begin to lose ground again as the long term dry pattern continues to dominate.

    1. I feel like this winter has been cold and snowy to this point, certainly not the worst I’ve seen, but it’s felt like an old fashion winter IMO, 37.3 inches so far, thanks tk 🙂

    2. I can’t help but wonder of people call this an incredible winter because we are actually having cold more in line with what I seem to recall as typical as opposed to most of this century which tended warmer.

      1. Well it is a little colder than typical. Average temps in most areas are at least a few degrees below normal. But I think the scope of the below normal is what makes people think it’s so nasty.

        Cold outbreaks like this winter were very common in the 1970s and 1980s, less so in the 1990s which were ironically more snowy. 😉

        1. Agree. It’s what I remember as a winter in MA. Not so much for winter in New England as the snow for the ski areas seems to still be wanting. Sadly.

            1. Yes. Sad. Rivers looking very good in this area although I know how deceptive that can be. I was very interested in your drought comments

              1. Rivers are up temporarily because of better precipitation since December 1, and local snowmelt between the colder outbreaks.

  38. I just buy that low as being depicted by the euro would bring in so much warmth. I bet if anything it ends up weaker.

    Boy the Canadian is jacked hich is concerning since it had been very good sniffing out storms.

  40. I just read a post on a FB page that is going with the repeat of the Superstorm 1993 for Wednesday/Thursday. They then announced that the post is “not up for debate” or you will be banned. Opinions?

  42. Any of scenarios at this point spell not much and a bunch of rain for the coast. Inland areas are a different story.

    1. Unless the FIM is right, then the different story for inland areas would be a whole bunch of not much. 🙂

      1. You had said that you thought that the FIM was the 2nd best model. I have never heard it mentioned on air or even on social media or TWS accuweater etc.

        1. It was doing a wonderful job way back earlier in the season. I haven’t paid too much attention to it of late. But this run does support the scenario I have thought is very possible.

  44. Example of social media posting problem. And this is NOT a knock at DT, just a problem I noted on the page after one of his posts.

    He posted the Canadian model’s snowmap which goes through 06z on February 15 and now everybody is confused because:

    1) They think this is the actual solution that is going to take place, and
    2) They think the storm is going to be slow-moving, lasting through the 15th, when it fact it’s just the end-time for the forecast period.

    I hope he clearly explains this to the readers.

    1. I would comment my opinion on his page and get banned on purpose, like I’ve done already, it’s a s###show over there, I’m sorry, WHW is the best IMO 🙂

      1. I seldom comment on that page, not due to my opinion of it, and when I do it’s usually to help answer someone’s question that I know the answer to, or offer a meteorological opinion. When I have done the latter, I have usually been labeled something less than complimentary if it was not 100% in agreement with the post.

  45. Not weather related but then its me ;). Don’t forget 50 years of Beatles tonight. I’d like to think it was 20 or even 30 but as with so many storms I suspect many remember where they were

    1. Being an Olympics junkie, I’ll be DVR’ing that Beatles show and watching it the last week of this month. 🙂

  47. No spitting snow here, it is SNOWING. To be sure only quite lightly, but is beyond
    spitting. 😀 😀

  48. This article on the BBC website about a possible link between the large number of rain and wind storms in the British Isles and global warming should drive both camps on global warming crazy:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625

    The chief scientist at the British meteorological office says this year’s unprecedented (well, once in 248 years!) number of storms, flooding, etc … may be linked to global warming. She offers no causal explanation. Then, she compares data from two years ago when there was basically no flooding at all (it was a rather harsh, cold, dry winter in England – mild over here, which supports my theory on an inverse relationship between weather there and here) and repeats the assertion of a possible link. Huh? Does she mean to say that in two years time global warming has had that dramatic an impact on the weather? Not even those who believe in global warming would make that assertion. As I’ve said before, I find the debate on global warming mildly amusing and seriously irritating at times. I do think that there has been a trend towards global warming based on statistical averages of temperatures of the earth’s surface. But, it is a trend, and not a particularly dramatic one at that. And, it has relatively little impact on year-to-year variance in weather patterns. Alaska was super cold in 2012, and really warm in 2014. Can we glean anything from that? No, not really. Even the existence of a stubborn area of high pressure west of California causing severe drought isn’t especially helpful to those whose thesis is “the earth is warming.”

    1. Sure, we can glean something from the changes over 2 years’ time: The weather is doing what it’s supposed to do. It’s a thermodynamic transfer mechanism. 🙂

      There is nothing “wrong” with the weather.

        1. I have 1/2 hour set aside shortly after midnight to scrape my driveway and walks down. Most of it should be done by then.

  55. Wonder how long it will take for a TV guy to post a model for snow amounts for the midweek storm threat. 🙂

  56. By next weekend, one of the 2 models, euro or gfs will have egg on its face. Both are locked in to their respective outcomes. Curious to see the gfs ensembles to see if they agree with op. Euro has ensemble support. Blend the 2 which has been the forecast choice recently might be the exact outcome

  57. Baileyman calling for a biggie…I don’t recall him ever being right, but he sure is confident.

    Good Afternoon Everyone!
    Well yes~ I am back. And do you know what that must mean? It means……….PREPARE…because, not only are the computer models suggesting it (many of them that is) but, both my experience and “gut” tells me that, Thursday into Friday there is LIKELY to be a MAJOR nor’easter running up and off the NE coastline. And I do think, in many ways, it looks to be a classic set-up for a BIGGIE!
    As for tonight? expect a period of light snow with a coating to perhaps an inch or 2 across the region nothing to write home about!
    However, the perturbations that Barry Burbank alluded to (New England’s best MET in my opinion) regarding the complexities, dynamics and potential evolution of the atmosphere, especially in the northeast USA looks ripe for a powerful low to move up along the eastern seaboard Wed into Friday! I am highly confident that it will be a storm containing A LOT OF PRECIPITATION AND HIGH WINDS! Although all the models are not quite yet consistently on board with this, many are ..and the rest are basically hinting at it by erratically trying to organize the meteorological recipe and/or ingredients in order to serve up a “Masterpiece of a storm”. Now not quite ready to say, it will be historic but, I am confident it will be major. The models will start to coincide in the hours and days ahead! The only question is, Where does the snow/rain line end up??? Well for now I say, somewhere near Boston and South and east. In fact, with the coastal waters being so cold, I think Boston has better than 50 % chance of staying primarily snow. But areas especially west and north of 95, WATCH OUT! 1 TO 2 feet seems likely for now.~
    Now I know its a bit early for me to be so Bold and the Coldest of the current air mass will have moved east of NE by Thursday and Friday, But, ONE VERY IMPORTANT ELEMENT ABOUT THS STORM WILL BE THAT….STORMS OF THIS POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE CREATE THEIR OWN MICRO ENVIRONMENTS, and given the LIKELY STORM TRACK, their will likely be more than enough cold air to thermally and quite dynamically decend over us SHOULD THIS STORM TAKE THE TRACK I BELIEVE IT WILL! DETAILS..SOON, LOVE TO HEAR BARRYS TAKE ON IT… Have a nice evening all. BaileyMan

    1. Haha. Love that guy! Even when he’s wrong. He reminds me of Old Salty, only much more long winded. 😉

      1. Hey wait! Has anyone ever seen OS and BaileyMan in the same place at the same time????? 😉 I mean it makes sense..

        Old Salty. Clark Kent.

        BaileyMan. Super Man.

  58. Well I am still hyping the V-Day snow bomb, but I must admit, it’s a “Longshot.” 🙂

    Five Bruins going to Olympics:
    Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Tuukka Rask and Loui Eriksson

  61. I have been looking at the models most everyday this winter which is not something I often do. Anyway, I have a question for the model huggers … which model would you say has been the most accurate this winter, and would say your model of choice this winter is as accurate as the Euro was last winter?

    1. That is a tough question.

      In all honesty, for this Winter season, I think it might have to
      be the GFS of all things. 😀

    2. I think the GFS, other than missing the track initially on several storms, seemed to lock into the best solution within 48 hours of an event most of the time. The ECMWF was the long-standing winner, but since the “upgrade” .. it has not been as consistently excellent.

  63. Blizzard in Back Bay! A local phasing of jet-streams. Winds have really picked up. I’d say 50mph gusts at this point. There’s tremendous lift, as the snow intensity is just awesome. We’ve passed the 2 inch per hour rate. Phenomenal! Visibility is down to about 10 yards. The feet of snow they were calling for last week will verify here on Beacon Street. I’m about to call Jim Cantore, Al Roker, and Henry Margusity to tell them they were RIGHT. This is a February to remember, at least here in Back Bay.

    1. In all honesty I can’t see a big storm either, but could see something on the smaller side of medium. And if a storm does materialize, I still can’t figure if we’re talking rain or snow.

  68. There has been no blocking this winter yet these progressve storms we have had this winter have put down a good dumping of snow. Boston has had I believe 2 double digit snowfall storms this winter.

  70. I think that is safe to say it will happen when the new run comes out. I think the 12z run of the Canadian model was on steriods. With that said I still think it will show a storm having some sort of impact on SNE but certainly not the 961 mb bomb it showed in the previous run.

  71. 0z nam takes next weeks storm right up the coast and its loaded. 2 way out of range runs in a row showing this

      1. Of course with the isobars every 2 mb, it makes it look like the end of the world.

        That would be quite a period of wind though.

    1. Probably the grand finale. It all gets disorganized just after midnight, except a couple concentrated areas near the coast especially N of Boston I believe.

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