Two Quiet, Too Cold

463 Comments

7:32AM

Today, Tomorrow: 2 quiet days, 2 cold days (maybe too cold for some of you). The sun angle may be climbing now, but we can still get fresh deliveries of cold air from Canada, and one such delivery took place behind a departing small low pressure system yesterday. But it will be bright and dry, courtesy high pressure. This high will quickly give way, however, to a rapidly developing storm system which will take place during the next couple days in the Deep South, giving them a major ice/snow storm in many locations. The storm will turn make a classic run up the East Coast, and its exact track will result in whatever takes place here in southeastern New England. At this point, the jury’s out, and deliberating. The jury, being the  meteorologist (me in this case), will continue to consider the evidence, being the array of models, and hopefully come up with a more certain verdict (forecast) by tonight. For now, the update below will continue to be less than detailed, but will give my initial feeling on how the storm plays out. Beyond that storm, a smaller low is expected to bring a bit of snow or snow showers Friday night and early Saturday, a smaller low pressure area misses the region to the south on Sunday, and then we enter a quiet weather pattern heading into early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 coast and urban centers. Wind light NW.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny – high clouds showing up in the SW and S sky later in the afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind light NW to N.

THURSDAY: Storm moves in during the morning, starts as snow most if not all areas, changes to rain at least Cape Cod, Islands, southern RI, and parts of east coastal MA/NH, mixing inland for some distance, and best chance of mostly or all snow from northwestern RI through interior eastern MA (I-495 belt westward) and interior southern NH. Significant accumulation of snow possible especially where it remains mostly or all snow. Storm winds down as snow showers at night. Lows 10-20 early morning. Highs 30s to 40, coldest inland, mildest coast through Cape Cod. A period of strong winds likely.

FRIDAY – VALENTINE’S DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Lows around 20. Highs near 30.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 30.

463 thoughts on “Two Quiet, Too Cold”

    1. I’m going to make an attempt to have enough confidence to call it by tonight and only tweak if needed after that.

  4. Everything points to that rain coming in after a couple inches here on the coast. Let’s see if the 12z have a better handle on all of this.

    1. I’m Afraid it “looks” that way. It could always change, but the current
      trend has been for wetter and a track farther West. Doesn’t bode well
      for Snow along the coast.

      Worcester and points West could do very well.

      I concur, let’s see what the 12z runs bring in.

  5. Thanks TK. We have a leak. And it is true that if there is a way that water will find it. Every year we think we have the problem solved, and every year it finds a new entrance. You’d think I would not like snow 🙂

    And I saw that Shirley Temple passed away. On Sundays we would make popcorn and all sit in front of the TV to watch her movies. My favorite was Heidi.

  6. Thank you TK. Stay on it.

    I just wish these storms would have a little more certainty with them.
    But then again, it can be more fun when you don’t know what you’re going
    to get until it gets here.

    Still a small chance Boston sees a major snow storm. True the current evidence
    points to a snow to rain situation. Still watching. NAM out soon. 😀

  7. TK – question and I know the answer will be a guess and the question would be better held until tonight. Friends are leaving this area for Kennebunkport later this week. Plan was to leave here noon Thursday. Would it be better to wait until Friday morning or even mid-day?

    1. Based on past storms (that sometimes they sneak in early), I think the best option is morning/midday Friday, versus trying to squeak it out Thursday.

  8. Hadi,

    Thank you for the Euro Snow Map.
    I was reading the Wundermap correctly.

    That map is NOT consistent with the models own 850MB charts.

    Those charts indicate perhaps 3-4 inches of snow, then RAIN.

    ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

  9. this is what i like rain for the coast snow for the mountains. and northern mass 🙂

    though parts of the southeast US is gonna get clobbered

    1. Central to southern mountains of NH and ME yes, but VT continues to get the shaft with each and every storm. Im headed up to Killington in 2 weeks and their “real” base depth for feb is pretty pathetic

      1. because when its snows on the coast and south and east of boston that usually means the storms do not give ski country good snows

  10. I have a really hard time believing that a track SE of the cape with ocean temps around 38, cold air in place(although no reinforcement necessarily), and heavy precip that it doesn’t snow pretty darn close to the coast. Tom has been alluding to this since yesterday and I tend to agree with him. It was just a few weeks ago that we had a much smaller, weaker wave come through here with models showing no snow to get up to 8″ north and west of the city, with the city itself getting a few inches. I feel this upcoming set up is more favorable for snow than that day. By my name I clear “want” snow, but try to avoid confirmation bias as much as possible when it comes to what I think will happen. Models have told us there will be a storm, but I think they are missing something when it comes to precip

    1. Could be, but if it tracks over SE MA, FUGGETTA BOUT IT.

      Need it to track at the very least over Outer Cape or Nantucket, preferably
      even SE of there.

      We shall see. NAM out to 36 hours.

    1. Agree, NAM looks better.

      850mb freezing line REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST of BOSTON.

      2M Temperatures remain above freezing. I don’t think that would prevent
      snow, but it will be CEMENT!!!

      Wind gusts to 50 mph along the coast.

      1. FINAL NAM SNOW MAP:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=069

        10 or 11 inches of CEMENT for BOSTON.

        This could bring down MANY Power lines.

        I wonder IF the GFS follows suit? And the others as well?

        This “could” be REALLY SERIOUS. REALLY SERIOUS.

        BTW, the snow algorithm for the NAM attempts to take into
        account temperatures within the column and makes and adjustment. It does NOT assume a 10:1 ratio.

        That is why I am saying 10 inches of CEMENT could have 1.5 to 2 inches of water in it. Very BAD.

          1. WW, Honestly, I don’t want 10 inches of cement.
            I’ll take 20 inches of 10-15 to 1 snow, but
            NOT 10 inches of cement. That could be
            a disaster.

    1. Is he on Channel 7? They don’t know their collective A** from their Elbows.
      Sorry, just the way I see it.

      BTW, Eric Fisher last night at 11PM uttered the “B” word.
      Yes, it is true he said that part of the area “Could” see BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

      😀 😀 😀

  16. I do think that what the NAM is showing on the 12Z is a fairly likely scenario, although I’m still not convinced as others are that ratios go as low as I think these models are suggesting.(they may close to the coast) but 1-2 miles west I don’t think it will be as significant, south shore excluded.

    2. NOW will the other models end up there as well? OR West of benchmark.

      We shall see.

      BTW, just read the NWS Taunton office write up. Blah blah blah. It represents
      OLD data and they have the system passing WEST of the benchmark with
      snow changing to rain ALL the way to 495.

      Hey, that could easily still happen. The NAM is not the be all end all, but
      we shall see.

      1. Am I correct, that a majority of time this winter, the NAM, as we’ve gotten closer to events, has usually had the “mildest” of thicknesses for storms ?

        If so, I find it interesting that 48 hrs out, it is a “cooler” solution for this event.

        1. I think you are correct. So what does this mean?

          I could very well mean we get CLOBBERED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          1. I’m hedging that way (big snow) ….. especially 4 or 5 miles inland, just from the ocean.

            Within those 4-5 miles, I think a net gain of snow, but ….within the actual precip window, when it precips hard, it snows and when it lightens up, it rains or mixed …… perhaps ???

  18. BTW, NAM wants to crank out about 1.6 inches of water.

    At 5:1 that’s 8 inches. At 10:1 that’s 16 inches. The snow map had 10 or 11, so that is
    “about” 7:1 ratio. Sounds about right to me. 😀 😀

    1. Snow raking today regardless, if this system turns any colder, I need to put a dent in what has already formed on my roof from last Wed.

  20. Will we ever in this country do something about our antiquated, utterly obsolete power grid? I was never a fan of Al Gore, but he was right about something. He said a long time ago (he was VP) that we had to invest in a modern power grid. It was an economic imperative. The investment is well worth it. Above ground power lines are not only an eyesore, they are vulnerable to all kinds of weather events. And as we know, when they go down, it cripples parts of our nation. Happens every year, and everyone seems to react to events rather than be proactive. Even Obama, who often talks about rebuilding our “infrastructure,” has not included a revamping of our power grid. As a nation, perhaps it makes sense to spend a little less on $100 million dollar warplanes and cruise missiles, hire tens of thousands of workers across the nation (perhaps even hundreds of thousands; who will then contribute to the economy by buying things – old Keynesian multiplier), and get ourselves a modern power grid.

    1. I vote yes and am a big fan of that old Keynesian multiplier. To make matters worse, the utilities are spending less $$ and putting less manpower against the upkeep of the grid. All, of course, in the name of profits. Even if the lines don’t go underground, the equipment is being tested at intervals further apart than ever.

      1. Of course, the utilities are taking any and ALL excess dollars
        as PROFITS. Investing in infrastructure and maintenance for that
        matter cuts into profits. Want to know why we have power
        outages. It is GREED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        1. OS – that’s the truth. Company very near and dear to my heart is forefront in testing for the utilities and creating the test equipment that they use. The test intervals and number of tests have declined steadily for the past couple of decades along with the number of employees to get the same job done. I am not sure it is as much the structure as the lack of maintaining the structure – maybe 50/50.

          And with the predicted shortage of power industry electrical engineers, we are about to see the proverbial you know what hit the fan.

  21. It may briefly switch to rain in boston as the storm is making its closest approach, but as it comes up and hits due east of cc and beyond, it would switch back to all snow for most if not all. This run of the NAM shows that for a brief 2-3 hour period. One thing i would caution is the NAM’s bias to hold onto precip for too long. A good 4″+ is after the storm is past our latitude. That might not happen.

  23. Harvey Tweet

    @HarveyWCVB: The Thu./Thu. Nt. storm is the most difficult one to forecast in terms of rain/snow line this winter

  25. Comments…

    *I agree with Harvey, just mentioned it to a friend on FB, and my mother.
    *Who needs climate change to cause more power problems? It’s true, our system set-up is what the problem is.
    *I am theorizing the reason the NAM is a bit of an outlier, that is, colder, is due to the fact this is really the first true Miller-A storm we’ve had to deal with and the model may handle it differently than it does the hybrid/phasing types of storms.

    1. That would probably be the case for all the models then right? Unless there’s one in particular that has historically performed better with Miller A’s?

      1. Honestly, I have not studied model performance thoroughly enough to remember. JMA may have taken closer note of this… ??? .. I suppose I should take some notes myself. 😀

    1. GFS wants to push the 850MB freezing line WAY to the North and West, severely limiting any snow along the coast and cutting down signifcantly
      inland. And NOT for nothing, the GFS is back to fairly LIMITED precipitation
      totals.

      I think it is FACUCKTA!!!

    1. Way more west then a couple days ago when it was a miss. But still, a 980 something mb low with very little precip on the western side by the time it gets up here. So strange.

  30. 3″ tops in boston, but yet it absolutely crushes coastal ME. I dont get it. Drops a load on NC and VA, then a little precip as it passes us, then another load on coastal ME. Makes no sense.

  31. Ok, now how does a forecaster do one’s job with such overwhelmingly
    conflicting information????

    I think the GFS needs a lobotomy.

    Right about now, I am dying to see the Euro and Canadian, however, I have
    a feeling I will vomit after viewing the Euro. 😀 😀

  32. Imagine if this storm was supposed to start early tomorrow morning?? With this much discrepancy and uncertainty on not just a rain/snow line but qp amounts? My god what would we do?!?

  33. I do not think the GFS really has a great handle on this storm whatsoever. Has it been the best model this winter? Yes….has it been completely inconsistent with this storm? Yes. Within this time frame I do generally trust the NAM, although that can be scary sometimes. I’m sticking with my earlier idea as long as the models show there current tracks. Even the GFS track is outside the cape which I think will allow for the snow to hold outside the immediate coast

    1. Interesting. I did notice that on the NAM and GFS but its not in the most idea spot. If we could get it to slide a little more east that would be fantastic!

    1. Not as wet as u might think. Rain is a good possibility for part of the storm, but even in ur area, some wet snow, 3”+ is a good bet in all these different scenerios, even the furthest west ones.

    1. We have seen this kind of map before. Each time, that transition line has been slowly pushed south. Will that happen this time? Not sure, but it will be nerve wracking to watch. Even 3-6″ of heavy wet snow would cause problems, esp if we get some rain on top of that.

    2. A very nice map, I totally agree with it, now we can have all the snow lovers try like hek with different models try to get that 6-12 to the east lol, this has been very consistent with rain at the coast and snow well inland

    1. NO back End Snows either. It quits as RAIN.

      What a bummer.

      I CANNOT stand this model discrepancy.

      This is a preview of the EURO.

      Sure to pass over Boston as well, if not NW of there. 😀 😀

  41. Elliot Abrams was calling for 6-12 even in the city this am. He is usually conservative. He is buying the colder solution.

    1. That is so funny bc at noontime WBZ radio just said 3-6 inches, but it wasn’t Elliot Abrams, I forget who it was, but they just did the weather on 1030am

    2. You are so correct. He is ultra conservative. If he is buying the colder
      solution what’s up.

      What’s the over/under on the Euro?

      Benchmark? Outer Cape? Canal? Plymouth? Boston? Worcester? Hartford?
      Albany?

      I’ll take Boston, but Hoping for Benchmark. 😀 😀 😀

      1. I think euro will take track of NAM, benchmark baby! Euro and NAM have been surprisingly in good agreement last couple runs.

  42. Interesting words from Matt Noyes to nicely sum up whats going on right now.

    “At this early juncture, the GFS is a decent middle-of-the-road solution, not only with regard to snowfall, but also with regard to storm track and intensity. That said, it’s likely that the colder snow solution of the NAM will have some validity to it, as will the higher precipitation amounts of the ECMWF. In the end, verification will likely incorporate pieces of each guidance solution – a tight rain/snow line nudged a bit farther southeast (somewhere near Boston/Providence corridor? Interstate 95? We shall see), a track near the GFS, and beefed up precipitation amounts from the ECMWF. So, the best forecast is either none of these, or a blend of them, depending upon your perspective, but the bottom line is we have a good foundation to build from and add details as more precise data becomes available.”

  43. I think all of New England except for the very few, are rooting this away, that’s all I’m getting in calls and text 🙂

  44. Not putting too much stock in the Canadian(have we ever put all that much stock in it?) That’s a pretty significant shift from one run and another sign that the model is struggling with the current set up. I’m not sure the Euro changes all that much, but regardless thinking back to the Saturday surprise storm a few weeks ago, only the NAM began to show signs of that happening, although even that model showed surface temps too high for snow. I remember asking OS how with even 850 and 500 temps showing it was cold enough for snow that no snow was projected by any of the models. Unless this thing tracks over the cape or west of there, I do not think it will rain as much as is being depicted. So far the GFS and the NAM have the low to the east of the cape. The canadian is on its own with the westerly track.

  45. I want to really like Matt Noyes and i don’t ever doubt his scientific/technical knowledge, but he has had a tough forecasting winter IMO, missing badly on several occasions. I know no one can be 100% correct but his often too conservative big picture mindset doesn’t lend itself well for the many subtleties of NE weather that need to be accounted for in certain areas. It might have something to do with the fact he is responsible for forecasting the entire NE region and cant focus on just the boston area but he has missed on a few obvious things this winter.

  46. I’ll probably be wrong again, but this storm is mostly a RAIN event in Boston and all of coastal Massachusetts, except perhaps the far northeastern corner. There’s no High forcing it to the benchmark. Not this time.

  47. From NOAA:

    PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
    NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    439 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

    VALID 12Z TUE FEB 11 2014 – 12Z FRI FEB 14 2014

    …SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST AND UP
    EAST COAST…

    A HIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT WINTER STORM IS IMMINENT ACROSS THE SRN
    TIER OF THE COUNTRY AND VERY LIKELY TO PROCEED UP THE EAST COAST
    ON WED AND THURS… BASICALLY EXTENDING FROM TX/LA TO NEW ENGLAND.

    A VERY COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE ERN
    TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY… WHILE A MAMMOTH DOME OF SURFACE
    ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONSUMES THE ENTIRE REGION AND ESPECIALLY
    EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC IMPULSE OVER
    THE MID MS VALLEY WILL GLIDE ALONG THE NRN STREAM AND REACH THE
    NORTHEAST COAST ON TUES. MEANWHILE… THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT
    IMPACTED THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE
    ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AND TRACK ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
    ALREADY MOISTURE IS OVERRUNNING THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR
    THE GULF COAST FOR A WELL-ESTABLISHED PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS THE
    SOUTH CONTAINING SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS SHIELD OF MOISTURE
    WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST OR WITH
    THE PACE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY 1
    TO 3 OR 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM NRN AL/GA THROUGH UPSTATE SC INTO
    SERN/ERN NC WITH POSSIBLE .10 TO .50 INCH OF ICING THREAT FROM
    NRN/CENTRAL GA THROUGH MUCH OF SC INTO SERN NC AND THE BEGINNING
    OF A PARALYZING ICE STORM. AS THE SRN STREAM FEATURE CROSSES TX TO
    THE LWR MS VALLEY… SOME SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS PAC
    DYNAMICS NEAR THE NW WILL DIG DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
    INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS THE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED PRECIP
    SHIELD ACROSS TX/LA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTH
    AND TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS… WHILE INDUCING A WAVE OF LOW
    PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
    LIGHT AND MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH TX BUT A
    DECENT AMOUNT OF ICING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX THROUGH ERN
    TX/MUCH OF LA TO NORTH CENTRAL MS. WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A
    COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS… ECMWF AND 21Z/10 SREF MEAN.

    THE DIGGING UPSTREAM DYNAMICS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY
    CATCH UP WITH THE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS TO POTENTIALLY PHASE OVER
    THE SERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT
    INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
    ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING
    COASTAL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST… WHILE ONE OF THE MORE
    IMPRESSIVE CONFLUENT ZONES ALOFT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH
    PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST. A TRUE BAROCLINIC LEAF PRECIP
    SHIELD WILL EVOLVE FEATURING MAJOR ICING FROM ATL TOWARD CAE THEN
    SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD RDU AND A VERY HEALTHY DEFORMATION ZONE OF
    BANDING SNOWFALL FROM NRN GA/SWRN NC/NWRN SC NEWRD TO SWRN/CENTRAL
    VA BEFORE REACHING THE DC/BALT/PHIL METRO AREAS. THE ICE
    ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN MIND-BOGGLING IF NOT HISTORICAL WITH
    ADDITIONAL .50 TO 1 INCH AXIS FROM ATL/AHN/AGS TO CAE TO RDU AND 8
    TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO AND JUST SOUTH OF
    IAD/DCA WITH A POSSIBLE FOOT NEAR SWRN NC/NWRN SC. WPC CONTINUED
    THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF
    MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF A CLASSIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM.

    THEN ON THURS… THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW GOING THROUGH RAPID
    CYCLOGENESIS WILL TRACK FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC TO THE NEW
    ENGLAND COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC
    MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE NRN MID-ATL STATES AND NORTHEAST FOR A
    NARROW BUT IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE GUIDANCE IS ALL
    UNANIMOUS IN A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEFORMATION AXIS/COMMA HEAD OF
    HEAVY SNOW BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT CORRIDOR. WPC TOOK A MEAN
    APPROACH OR TAKING OUT THE SPECIFIC DETAILS AND RESOLUTION OF THE
    GUIDANCE FOR A HEAVY SNOW AXIS JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR FROM
    DC/BALT AREA TO BOS AND CONTINUING UP INTO MAINE. THE EXACT
    AMOUNTS ON THURS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT A STRIPE OF 6 TO
    12 INCHES WILL BE POTENTIALLY POSSIBLE FROM NERN PA/NWRN NJ
    THROUGH DOWN EAST MAINE.

    …PAC NW TO NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST…

    AN UPPER VORTEX BREAKING DOWN OVER THE NRN PAC WILL RESULT IN A
    STEADY STREAM OF UPPER DYNAMICS PROGRESSING INTO THE NW QUAD OF
    THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BATCH OF POWERFUL SHORT
    WAVE DYNAMICS WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW ON TUES… UPPER HEIGHTS
    WILL RISE SOME BEFORE A STRONG OCCLUDED SURFACE COLD FRONT PLOWS
    INTO WA/OR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW FROM THE WA CASCADES
    INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THEN ON WED… A SHORT WAVE
    ORIGINATING FROM THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC WILL
    REACH THE NW. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO CAPITALIZE ON THE GREATEST
    MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY OROGRAPHIC
    SNOWFALL FROM THE WA CASCADES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/BITTERROOTS AND
    TETONS. FINALLY ON THURS… A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE TAIL END
    OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL ROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACH THE NW.
    THIS SHOULD SPELL MORE HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE TERRAIN.

    MUSHER

    1. I like how Boston is included in “just west of I-95”. 🙂 When did they move the highway? 😉

  48. TNT vacations has a commercial that now says, coldest and snowiest winter in decades, they use anything for money

    1. It is one of the coldest.

      Snowiest? Maybe areal coverage of snow on the ground, but as for amounts? Not everywhere.

          1. True. 850mb temps are below 0 at that point but im sure surface temp are well above freezing. Curious to see a snowmap too.

    1. Looks like, from the euro anyways, start times have been delayed. Post 5am thursday, and maybe even later.

  55. What is the EURO’s pressure just east of Portsmouth, NH ….. Am I seeing around 978 mb correctly ? 978 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ??

  58. If the EURO has the pressure correct, maybe we should be less worried about precip type and more concerned about the wind.

  60. I had a good look at the Wundermap. After a slug of snow, Boston goes over to RAIN with 850mb temps climbing well above freezing.

    IS the NAM onto something OR do the Euro and Canadian have this nailed.
    They both had about identical tracks.

    1. I’m afraid, from your perspective, that the NAM may be lost. For a long while I was leaning toward a further E and weaker solution. But over the last 12 hours I’ve had to slowly step away from that idea and more toward a coast-hugging warmer scenario. However, I still don’t think we’ll be faced with a low so deep that we have to strap down loose objects for fear of having them sucked into the stratosphere. 😉 … Strong low? Yes. Super-bomb? Not quite.

      I have seen this storm labeled as “Blizzard of 2014” by some outlets. I do not think this thing will be remembered for blizzard conditions in many locations. It will be remembered in the South and Southeast for snow and ice, and largely forgotten in New England by next year.

      1. Sure looks that way now, doesn’t it?

        Life in New England.

        If this is the case, then BRING ON SPRING!!!!!!!!

  61. For anyone who is excited about the rain.

    @ericfisher: Important to note that rain will not be a blessing for those on warm side of this storm. 6-12″ of snow on ground, plus 1″+ rain, not good.

    1. He is overlooking one thing – 6-12 inches of average consistency snow will absorb an inch of rain without much trouble, though there will be flooding in prone areas. Also, minor to moderate concern for flat roofs.

      However! Rain may actually end up a better scenario, when it comes to roofs, since at least some of it will run off. If we had a foot of wet snow on top of 6-12 inches of snow, we’re not getting rid of any of that weight right away.

  62. Just talked to my SIL in Atlanta. Delta is under what she termed severe operation rules which she said basically means they can move any person or plane anywhere it determines is the safest/best place to be. Banks have said they will be closed at least tomorrow. Schools will be closed. She wasn’t clear on whether businesses would be closed.

    1. I would guess the vast majority of business will be closed. They also brought in extra trucks, sand, salt, etc. .. They will not have a repeat of the last storm, even though this storm will end up worse, in terms of icing.

  64. My first idea of how this thing plays out goes like this:

    Snow ALL areas to start, right around or just before dawn for the South Coast, spreading rapidly northward during the morning through MA into southern NH by late morning. Rain/snow line wastes no time coming across the Islands, Cape, South Coast, then right up through SE MA, right through Boston, and all the way out to 495 by noon. How far beyond 495 it gets is a bit unclear to me, but I think the hills of north central MA and most of south central NH north and west stay snow with a solid 8+ inches. From this 8 inch line watch it drop off steadily as you head S & E. For Metro Boston, somewhere in the 2-6 inch range for snow on the front end (2-4 most likely), coating to 2 by the time you are in southeastern MA. Cannot rule out a DRY SLOT that shuts things down in the changeover area later in the day. Eventually things go back over to snow from W to E as the low gets abeam of and above our latitude. Maybe an inch or 2 of snow as we catch the back-lash later Thursday night.

    Opinions?

      1. Yes. I think E 20-40 gusts 50+ for some coastal areas.

        May have a lull mid-storm for eastern New England as strong winds back from NE to N far inland.

        I think we may end up with a wind issue for Friday, at least early, as the bomb moves away and strong NW to W winds sweep the area.

        The good news is, tides are not that astronomically high so during the onshore winds, though there will be some flooding and splash-over, I think problems will be minimal compared to what these types of systems can result in.

          1. Coast, primarily. But inland and especially higher elevations, we are not completely immune to some wind damage.

  65. Hey OS, are any of the other short term models within range? Whatever happens, these types of storms make for very interesting discussions and this one seems to have many of us scratching our heads. If the Nam stays its course, I won’t be able to ignore the snowier scenario

  66. Also I might add we don’t have 6 inches on the ground, we have about 4, so if we receive an inch of rain, it will just about wash it away IMO

    2. I did not say u didn’t I said I have 4 inches on the ground, and that an inch of rain will not cause problems down here in the Foxboro to north Attleboro area 🙂

      1. I have between 8-10″ still on the ground in Sharon. Very little if any melting has occurred after this last storm.

  70. A solid 7.5 on the ground in Woburn. Had a foot last Wednesday atop a small amount leftover from the Monday previous. It settled to 7, then added another 0.7 Sunday night which has pretty much sat atop the old snowcover since..

    1. Yeah, we had 6.4 yesterday but this sunny day from beginning to end has put a small dent here, down to just over 4 inches 🙂

      1. Interesting that you’d lose 2+ inches of snowcover under nearly 100% sun today with very cold air (for mid February) while so far I have lost a couple tenths under the same conditions.

    2. I dont think a flake of snow on flat surfaces has melted in Marshfield since last Wednesday. Only areas to see melt are hills facing south or street snow piles that have dirt in them.

    1. I’d be thrilled with the 10-14″ shown for me in Tolland County Ct but am a bit suspect that is going to materialize. R/S line is going to come close.

    1. I agree, it’s a close call here but you’re looking pretty good. This could be your storm JJ! I think there is going to be a very heavy band of 12″+ that sets up somewhere across western CT and central MA.

      1. I have been waiting all year for a big dumping of snow. The biggest total I got from a storm was 8 inches from last
        week’s storm. This storm MAY match that total if not exceed it just a bit.

  76. NWS snowfall maps this winter have been very good IMO. They dont just throw maps up there with expected wild swings. Slight tweaks here and there yes, but so far they have been excellent in doing the proper analysis before posting these.

    1. Agree. They have done a decent job, despite the fact that they are often labeled as “incompetent” among other things. I know some of those guys there – they are a good group.

  77. I think Boston amounts are too high. The wind looks to be E/SE as it approaches, that’ll cause a more rapid changeover, I think, and a also a rise in temperature well above freezing. I think 42 (even higher as you head down the coast towards the Cape) in Boston is not out of the question by 11am on Thursday. Nantucket could see low 50s. Interior (well west of 495 and north country) will finally get their storm, but the snow will be quite heavy.

    1. And the northern extent of the heavier snow amounts will be tight. Very narrow area of heavier snow (if the euro is correct)

  78. I feel like at westborough, which is a few miles NW of the intersection of 495 and 90, will be just along the rain snow line with this one…

  79. I wonder, if the NAM, GFS, CMC, and now the shorter range models are mostly in agreement on track, the euro becomes somewhat of a western outlier and it not heavily used in the forecast.

  81. I would expect NWS out of Tauton to put some of there counties under a winter storm watch this afternoon. NWS out of Upton, NY and Albany NY have included there counties under a winter storm watch.

  85. Here is the NAM 18Z snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

    I have to be truthful here. The 850MB freezing line gets to “just” about through
    Boston on this run. On the 12Z Run it stayed SOUTH of the City. However, precip
    appears to be the same. Snowfall about the same. I’d say Boston might MIX or have
    a brief change to sleet. ACCORDING TO THIS RUN.

    JUST WAY TOO MUCH CONFLICTING DATA.

    2. Interesting. By looking at the run you would think its all rain with no snow along and east of I-95. According to that map, thats not the case at all. 6″ a good bet for those areas before an eventual changeover. I still think the euro is the western outlier and should be used at a very low percentage for the eventual forecast

  87. I love the variability and unknowns leading up to the storm, it’s what draws me into this stuff. TK you have been doing this a long time and I was wondering if you have seen similar set-ups in the past that might clue you into the outcome?

    1. I’ve seen so many that I can’t really pull out any one to compare.

      What I can say is that the pattern leading into this and the general setup during it leads me now to what I resisted at first, and that is the warmer scenario after an initial burst of snow, and one more snow burst (not as much) at the end.

    1. They’re dissecting the NAM and trying to decide whether or not to incorporate
      it in any watches/Warnings. Probably waiting on one more model, the 18Z GFS.
      Then they’ll decide. 😀 😀

      2. Not exactly sure why. If anything, the GFS has added a level of uncertainty as it seems to be the weak outlier as far as qp is concerned. Maybe that changes with the 18Z but i doubt it

    1. From the Winter Storm Warning:

      * WINDS…NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

      hmmmm

      Let’s see what the GFS brings and our other friendly models at 0Z. 😀

    2. Disagree.

      Changeover will come from South to North or Southeast to Northwest, just like ALways.

      It’s Toad S**T to think it is going to move East to West. 😀

  91. Eric fisher tweet

    @ericfisher: Sometimes I wish the NAM didn’t exist. I think it was put in the NWP suite just to be contrary to give Meteorologists indigestion.

  92. For fun predictions …..

    Logan’s highest temp during event : 37F, occuring just as the bombing out low passes btwn Chatham and Nantucket.

    Logan oscillates back and forth btwn heavy wet snow and light rain (precip intensity dependent) through the first 2/3 of storm before tapering to drizzle, then ending as a period of wet snow. Net gain at Logan about 4 inches.

    General 6-8 inches of wet snow in central and western New England in low elevation areas and 10+ for elevations above 500 ft.

    Marshfield …. About 1-3 inches of net gain wet snow. An incredible water-laden 6″ snowcover will still be on the ground after the storm passes.

    1. Not a bad idea considering the possible impact to the east coast. Although, once that data gets input to the models, i bet they all go haywire 🙂 Do they know which model suite will be first to feature the new data?

  96. We officially have winter storm Easton here in CT. I hope the NWS out of Albany, NY is right with forecasting 10-14 inches for my county

  104. I do think the R/S line orient itself in such a fashion that it does indeed move more E to W than any we have seen in a while.

  107. Looking at the NWS main page seeing all these watches and warnings everywhere except boston depresses me and makes me jealous lol . it seems like every major city in the east coast is getting decent snow except boston, and we finally have a strong low with gulf of mexico moisture but of course we get rain out of it.. go figuree 🙂 lol wat a waste of storm

    1. Or you can look at it that we’ve been sorta spoiled, and they haven’t gotten much, especially the mid Atlantic 🙂

    2. No doubt first real storm with loads of qpf and no cold high. It’s been there
      For the last two months!! Ughhh

      1. Well mac pulled his back chopping canals in the ice dam on one roof tonight. And he doesn’t like snow to begin with so I think he’d happily join the I’ve had enough on the roof club

    4. Doesn’t bother me. I have same outlook at always. Winter storms are either snow, rain, ice, or a combination thereof.

      We’ve had a pretty good winter around here so far if you like snow, except the further N you go in NH. 😉

  108. I feel ur pain hadi. And charlie we are in new england. Any storm that is under 12 inches. I don’t really consider it a snowstorm. I want the real potatoes and meat! I may be spoiled but I am a tough person to please!

  110. Heavy snow to rain.

    Cc and islands 0-1 inches then rain
    South shore 1-3 then rain
    Boston 1-3 then rain
    128-495 3-6 then mix to rain
    495-Worcester 6-12 then mix
    Worcester hills north and west 12+ all snow

  111. If you are looking for snow optimism, there is still a FB page out there that has labeled this the Blizzard of 2014 and has 6-12 inches all the way to the Cape Cod Canal, and 3-6 inches all the way to Nantucket. 🙂

  113. Tough call for accumulations for the Boston area regarding the front end. Things to keep in mind, cold ground going into this and there is a good sized snow pack, even along the coastline. This means the first flake will stick. The snow will come down at a decent clip for awhile before the relatively warmer ocean water finally warms the surface. As Philip just mentioned, Boston Buoy water temp is 37 degrees.

    I’m calling for 3-5″ on the front end, then goes over to rain sometime Thursday evening. There may be a quick burst of snow at the tail end with some accumulation. Bit of a wild card there.

  114. SNE may be the only part of the country in which it could be so cold a day or two before a rainstorm. It is hard to believe sometimes and this is no exception.

    1. Go to Denver. They can be in the teens one day, rain the next, in the lower 80s the next, and snow the day after that. 🙂

      1. I was just about to say that. My new favorite computer guru ……fixed my computer remotely from Denver yesterday……was telling me about their temp swings. Atlanta has been seeing them also.

        1. I visit Denver for 2 months (Sept/Oct) in 1981. I remember waking to 6″ of snow, then temps rebounded to 65 in the afternoon!

  115. Hey all, looks like a sloppy blah storm even for us up here in Merrimack Valley… on s side note any of you south shore guys/girls feel the small earth quake being reported?

  116. Terry at BZ says the models are hinting at a pattern change and this could be the last flakes we see this winter…seems like a pretty bold statement to make on February 11!

    3. HUH? I guess I will have to read what he wrote, but that is quite the call for a broadcast outlet….

      This is the toughest call for me to date this winter. I continue to believe that the synoptic patterns this winter should support a more southerly and easterly track for disturbed weather and that has worked out for about 2 out every 3 events or so, but there has certainly been northern and western trend that can’t be ignored. Of course I finally bowed to persistence last week and the storm track ended up being 30-50 miles south of where I forecasted. For the most part the systems this winter have ended up about as forecast in major cities of SNE, but it has been the hyperlocal band across narrow stripes of geography or anomalous 25:1 ratio storms that have created the forecast difficulty. This one is different and its got me a little gun shy right now.

    4. I like Terry, but just because one storm may take a more westerly/rainy path, I hardly think that makes it a done deal for this or any other winter. Heck, it could snow on May!

  118. booooo 18z GFS.

    Neat to look at it though front the standpoint that just when it bombs out at our latitude, it sucks the cold air right around the base.

  119. Since it appears the storm is a bust for the city/coast, I hope the change-over occurs early on. Down the drain it goes, along with a ton of road-salt!

  121. Since when does the 18z GFS get so much attention? The Nam should not be ignored at this timeframe even as an outlier. 0z is right around the corner

  122. Right now I am leaning towards a more westerly track, which means I think the phasing will be slower than the GFS / NAM portray. This means a few things as far as sensible weather outcomes. 1) A later onset of precip. Perhaps well after the AM commute. 2) A warmer, wetter solution with the rain / snow line on a more west to east line out to 495 or beyond. If we get significant southern convection hen that could create a downstream ridge that could move this storm track even further to the west than modeled.

    I have preferred the GFS all winter and really since August, but I think it 12z is too fast and too far east still and the loss of one of my primary tools the SREF (for most of the winter season) because of its heavy NAM influence has left me a little perplexed on this storm particularly because I think the ECMWF has been a pretty weak performer. So I leaving the models behind and trying figure it out by looking at upper air charts, surface obs and analysis. We will see, but lets just say forecaster confidence is below average!

  123. I would not be surprised if some parts of SNE under a winter storm watch get downgraded to an advisory.
    I love the different snowfall accumulations for my part of CT 4-8 inches 6-12 inches 8-16 inches.
    Sloporama storm on tap UGH but hopefully a good thumping of snow before any mixture or rain comes.

  124. anyone thoughts on Methuen? media has me all over the place 3-6′ 6-12, 5-9,
    i assume 6 inches would be about right?
    school teacher needs help( i am also a plow guy for town of methuen, and i have to get daycare straight in case of snowday/plow work
    jeesh sorry so long winded…

    1. I’ll call 3-5 for you followed by a change to rain, back to snow at the end with 1-2 additional POSSIBLE early Friday morning. Back end snow is not a guarantee.

  125. Terry’s (WBZ) comments border on irrational. Probably all about ratings or making weather appealing to the majority of the audience that wants spring. Sure, there will be a pattern change. We won’t be in the deep freeze all month! But, the pattern change will likely brings us back to a normal February pattern, which means days in the 30s and 40s, occasional snow and rain threats. We are slowly heading towards spring. But with that comes a long period of lots of (weather) teasing, instability, uncertainty, and even some dismal. It’s why I generally do not look forward to springtime in New England. Too variable, generally too wet, and too uncomfortably raw.

  126. 975mb on the EURO, 978 mb on the 18z GFS ……

    Should there be a concern about the wind, particularly 1-3 hrs post storm passage when the NW winds come in behind the low …..

    Does anyone think we could be trending lower on the pressure on the 0z and 12z runs Wednesday ? Could we be headed for the high 960s when all is said and done ??

  127. Certainly the possibility of strong backside winds post storm passage. Sure it could model lower, but I think reality will be in the 980’s.

  128. As I watch the 00z NAM run, I notice that low coming into the Pacific NW and beginning to drop into the upper midwest.

    With each passing run, it seems that feature is stronger. Is it this feature that is indirectly allowing this southern stream storm to wind up stronger and closer to the coast ?

    The NAM is about 25 hrs in and this upper midwest feature looks very strong and thus, I’m assuming the NAM is going to show a stronger storm and closer to the coast than its been. I just dont remember that midwest feature being this relevant on previous NAM runs.

    1. Yes, more east than EURO and 18z GFS … But, comparing it to itself, I think it is its furthest west solution to date on this particular storm.

    1. Yeah it does. Just NW of 495 should do real well with this if it holds.

      Compared frame to frame of the new 00z NAM and it’s almost dead nuts with the 18z run. Low right over the islands.

  134. Its bombing out, down to 982 mb ….. And again, against itself, I think NAM track is closer to the coast than its been.

    I wish I could recall what the past runs of the NAM have been pressure wise.

  135. Nam is bringing in a good bit of backend snow…i dont know how much of that would realistically occur…

  138. Compare the 00z 14th and 03z 14th forecasts from the 18z and 00z runs. The new NAM is a TOUCH warmer and literally about 5 to 10 miles further west with the track of the low.

    2. And for the NAM win it does something even rare for it, backside convective feedback about 4-6 hours after low passes creating a band of enhanced precip in central SNE, about 400 miles south of the low center and its northern edge mesoscale bands.

        1. Usually the NAM just creates a retrograding 3rd pressure fall to hold on to the precip too long, but not this time, it comes up with something new with the backside feedback.

  140. Nam pretty much holds its course. How come with the low getting stronger on the models no one has mentioned the heavy precip pulling down cold air?

  141. Big time convective feedback on the NAM through the entire run, including the follow up system. Might be alright with the low track, if not a bit too far east. Otherwise, crap run. *tossed*

  145. 974 mb on 00z run, which continues the slight strengthening of this system from the 18z run.

    Seems every model is in the 970s with this entity now.

    Am I overreacting in my growing concern about wind issues ??

    For such a low pressure, the winds dont seem to be portrayed on the models as too strong, which seems odd to me.

  146. For those with schools. If anything it will be early releases so kids get off the roads before noon time. areas along and east of i95 do not expect anything. Areas that get alot of snow look for delay openings on friday

  148. I made a post and it is lost???????

    Look at the 0Z GFS

    It takes the 850mb freezing line from near Albany and crashes it to the coast
    with some pretty heavy precip going on. Something is up.

    1. Very interesting for sure !!

      The EURO has been consistently lower on pressure for this storm and now that the GFS and NAM are running in the mid 970s, I wont be one percent surprised if the EURO at 00z is sub 970 ….. Perhaps 967 or 968 mb low as it passes Cape Cod’s latitude.

  149. TK looks like te GFS has that second burst of precip the NAM had as well and stronger with it at that. Thoughts?

    1. It may be related to additional data from the RECON flight into the Gulf. But that doesn’t mean it’s making the model run better.

      Not ready to buy it.

      1. Harvey just alluded to that second burst as well and said it is something to watch. Will be an interesting storm to say the least and full of surprises I think. I think Longshot has been calling for this one since last week!

        1. The most surprising thing is this: Pick out Brockton MA. The 00z NAM gives 10-15 inches of snow there. The 00z GFS gives 1-2 inches then a change to rain. Something is not right with the 00z runs and it has to do with the recon data. I bet almost anything on it.

    1. It’s very possible Matt IMO that where it stays all snow north and west of 495 there could be Blizzard warnings. Northern Worcester county could receive 12-15 inches of snow paste

  151. GFS has a 974mb Bomb just SE of Nantucket.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014021200&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=057

    Seems to me there could be considerable dynamic cooling going on, even enough
    to overcome a warm layer at 850 MB or so.

    We shall see.

    We are NOT out of the woods just yet. It just may end up snowing more than
    people currently think.

    We’ll keep watching.

    FWIW, Eric Fisher said that there would be BOMBOGENESIS.

    1. It also shows Boston getting snow and a ton of sleet a bit of rain and back to snow.
      Big time Winter event.

  153. So that makes the NAM, GFS and Canadian on board with back end snow.

    On one run….with perhaps, some faulty data???

  155. Thanks Captain for the link.
    My part of CT in the 10-14 inch range with the latest NWS snowfall forecast. I think that is high and the mix line will just get into where I am cutting snowfall down. If that low could some how track a little further offshore I could see getting close to that range. I think this low will hug the coast like many couples will be doing this Friday on Valentine’s Day.

    2. Perhaps the EURO snowmap can be believed or not believed by mid-late afternoon by seeing how its snowfall projections begin to verify in the southeast. It seems to give an awful lot of snow to Georgia and western South Carolina …. Something I’m not sure the other models are doing.

  160. I know this has not been discussed but there could be some power issues if these winds gust especially in areas that get several inches of heavy wet snow along with some ice on top of that.

  161. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    ALTHOUGH THE 00Z AND BEYOND MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT CONVERGED ON AN
    EXACT TRACK AND TIMING…THE SIGNAL IS THAT THE LOW WILL
    ESSENTIALLY BOMB OUT S AND E OF THE AREA THU NGT. THIS IS IN THE
    ENSEMBLES…GFS…ECMWF…GEM…NAM…WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING
    IN THE 970S INVOF CAPE COD. CONSENSUS TRACK IS JUST W OF THE
    BENCHMARK.

    1. If a small miracle happens, maybe it gets a little better for people I-95 and west but I think the coast gets robbed on this one. This thing would have to shift east by 50 or more miles.

      Rapid deepening and some serious convection MIGHT help this make its own cold air and bring more to 495.

  165. anybody remember the April Fool’s day storm track. For the record, I am not suggesting a repeat of that. If I remember correctly that thing was real close and it made lots of cold air with the intensity of the storm.

    I don’t know where the high was either.

    1. I don’t remember those either. All I know was that is was in the 60s the day before. There was some sort of cold front that oozed Southward over night
      and during the morning of the storm, so I am guessing High was to our
      North or NW.

      All I can say is that I SAW it coming. When people asked me at work how much snow, I put my hands to my knees. 😀 😀 😀

      I’ll bet it tracked INSIDE the benchmark. Not sure.

      1. I think you’re right on the track. Something tells me right over the canal maybe or even closer?

        I’m feeling like TK is going to come in with a timeout and tell us it was over the benchmark!

        1. I think it was benchmark:

          http://www.necn.com/common/medialib/304/720070.JPG

          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

          Well maybe not:

          http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2011/400x266_03311443_impactfrintsat.jpg

  166. Good Morning.

    NWS REALLY dropped the snow totals in Eastern Sections.

    Re: Euro
    It’s loaded. Look at the 850mb charts. It stays cold enough through a good chunk of it
    and then warms enough for sleet then rain and then gets colder again.

    Due to ratio, I’d knock down their 9-12 to 6-9 to the Coast. Cement and then rain.

    This thing is going to BOMB out. How much of it’s own cold air it makes determines
    how much snow and how far East.

    06Z still collapses the 850MB freezing line from way out West to the Coast
    RAPIDLY. At 48 hours line is in the Berkshires, by 54 hours it is East of the Coast.

    Personally, I think it does NOT go that far West and it Collapses more rapidly.

    NWS 2-4 inches for Coast is LOW.

    Of course that’s my own stupid opinion.

    Hope I am not wrong.

    FWIW, I think GFS track is too far West.

    1. What JJ posted:

      .THE SIGNAL IS THAT THE LOW WILL
      ESSENTIALLY BOMB OUT S AND E OF THE AREA THU NGT. THIS IS IN THEENSEMBLES…GFS…ECMWF…GEM…NAM…WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING IN THE 970S INVOF CAPE COD. CONSENSUS TRACK IS JUST W OF THE BENCHMARK.

      IF and I say IF this happens, we will get MORE snow in Boston than
      currently forecast.

      If it tracks more West than that, well then the NWS snow totals for
      Boston will verify. 😀

      2. Well, I stuck my neck out the other day with a “within 25 miles of the benchmark” call the other day. Let’s see if we can wishcast it to come true.

  167. Event though the NAM and GFS basically have the same track, GFS obliterates the cold air.

    Really looking forward to the 12z’s.

  168. This has been the most difficult storm of the winter to forecast. Slight shifts in track are going to make a big difference in terms of snowfall.
    Level 1 snowfall I -95 corridor south and east 4 inches or less. Level 2 snowfall west of I -95 to the CT River Valley snowfall 5 to 10 inch range. Level 3 snowfall West of there is the jackpot 10 plus inches.

  169. Gotta leave for work, catch you guys later. I’ll be watching! 🙂

    Hadi, you’d better get your fan out and blow it the other direction.

  171. Just heard on TWC that recon flight will occur gain today to get more info. They also said extra set of weather balloons went up at 1am to get additional data. Normally they do it at 7am and 7 pm.

  174. I have a feeling that dry slot will really come into play more than most think. No backside precip for eastern ma

      1. If we’re gonna back-lash, it’s usually a very slow-moving low, not the one we’re about to experience. The back-lash doesn’t even have a chance to get going before it’s left behind to die, or gets yanked out.

  175. I keep thinking of the storm about a year and 3 months ago ….. It was Dec 29-30, 2012.

    It bombed as it went SE of Cape Cod, so, it was a little further offshore if this tracks over the outer Cape.

    But, I feel like it has a lot of similarities.

    It didnt have a lot of cold air north of it.

    It seems to be headed for a comparable pressure fall in about a relatively similar area in its path.

    The outcome was rain to snow in eastern Mass (the ocean was 47F at that time). I think the dynamics, precip intensity and colder ocean will allow for snow-rain-snow this time.

    There was enough precip left on the backside for about 2-3 inches of snow in SE Mass.

    The rain/snow (rain turning back to snow) reapproached from due SOUTH to NORTH, as it was snowing on Cape Cod and raining in Marshfield and at Logan.

    I’m glad this event is tomorrow. I’m interested to see how it actually plays out.

  177. Regarding the track of the April Fool’s Blizzard. The low center never really got close to the bench mark. It stalled south of Block Island, then retrograded to the SW while occluding big time, then redeveloped a few hundred miles east of Cape Cod, then did a little fujiwara with the parent low while that one died and the entire thing drifted ENE out to sea. A little bit like the 1978 blizzard but not quite the same set-up.

  179. I am still having a hard time believing that with the projected track, cold air already in place, deep snowpack, cold ocean temps that this storm ends up more wet than white. It just doesn’t make sense to me. I may be wrong, but I think those factors with dynamic cooling with allow for the snow to hold for most, especially a few miles from the coast

    1. The cold air doesn’t stay in place. And unlike many of the storms this winter, there is no supply of cold air pushing down from the north. It exhausted itself already. And this morning’s cold is more radiational than anything. Shallow cold. The east wind will take care of it tomorrow.

  180. I did not forecast lows to be COLD enough. I always have trouble with radiational cooling over snowcover. -12 at Springfield. -6 at Norwood. Typical cold spots though. It even dropped a bit below zero at Bedford. Brrr!! Boston has had 10 mornings where their low temp was below 10 this winter.

    1. Certainly has been cold this year. I am used to it now :). Looks to become milder in a relative term later next week. That would be nice, probably would feel like summer to us!

  181. Good morning and away we go….again. I was watching coverage from Atlanta and they have measurable sleet. All through GA and on up it will be a horrendous mess.

  182. Very worried about the roof on the side of my house that does not face the sun. I raked the bottom half last week but there are huge ice jams I can see further up. Not good to add rain to that mix right now. Vicki how are your leaks in your roof?

    1. North that’s exactly the problem with our roof. I’m worried too. It’s a It is on the north side and doesn’t get any sun. And roof raking it makes it much worse as the dams form up above water/ice barrier. Mac chopped some breaks in the ice dams and water that was pooling behind the ice dam is now coming out through those. I chopped a few more this morning.

      Good luck with yours

      1. Yes. I also didn’t want to do anymore today and make it further up. Snow would actually be the better option at this point.

  183. Writing new blog…

    Scoreless game after 1: USA vs Canada women’s hockey. On NBC Sports Network live. 🙂

  184. Tom,

    I’m with you. Was thinking of a system from Waaaay back in the 60s while
    I was in High school. It was february and it was mild, in the 40s.
    There was a progressive, but very potent system coming. It was still cold enough
    aloft to support snow and the track was very tight to the coast. That morning
    Don Kent said there would be NE and perhaps even SW Gales, the track was that tight.

    Well it snowed and snowed HARD. I was living in Millis at the time.
    Picked up about 10 inches quickly. Storm was in and out of there in about 6-8 hours.

    Not that this means a single thing.

    Just curious to see IF there is a big surprise with this one.

    1. OS, do u recall what it did in Boston during that storm? Millis is historically on the snow side in situations like this

      1. Ace,

        It snowed as far as I can remember. BUT I cannot be totally
        certain. The point I was making was that it was a very progressive system, but it still made cold for sure.

  185. I get the feeling this thing won’t be ironed out till at least later tonight, and even then, with a rain/snow line in play, anything can happen and nowcasting p-types will be the name of the game. Also curious to see if guidance verifies for areas to our south to watch for trends

    1. One thing I saw this morning on the HRRR runs was heavy snowfall
      for Atlanta, GA. I thought that they were progged for ice??????

  186. What about the short range Canadian? I read something where that model does a much better job distinguishing between sleet/ice and actual accumulating snowfall

  187. HRRR sucks down there. That will be mostly ice then they get 1-4 inches of sleet/snow tonight after the ice is done (closer to 1 SE of the city and closer to 4 further to the N).

    Has no bearing for what happens up here. Significant warming coming in from the due E between 5000 and 10,000 feet is going to be the reason this is not a repeat of the examples cited above. Rain/snow line will be marching E to W tomorrow, beyond I-95 easily, maybe even beyond I-495 for a while.

    And forget that mega burst of snow overnight. That was over-done by models poisoned with recon data that gave them indigestion. There will be a nice wrap around band, but probably western MA, VT, and central and northern NH.

    1. So I understand you TK, there is little to no chance that the center will pass E or S of us? The above forecast is pretty much a lock?

      1. Not 100% lock, yet. We’ve seen things “go wrong (or right depending on your perspective)” at the last moment many times. 🙂

        1. Thanks TK 🙂 My perspective is for either all snow, or all rain. It’s the snow to rain that does a number on the old back!

  188. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, it’s been a great stretch of winter weather. I mean consistently cold, often sunny, a nice snowpack. My early morning runs are great in this kind of winter wonderland.

    Thanks, TK, for explaining the low’s position in April of 1997. I was thinking of that scenario for tomorrow, but now that you’ve explained it I changed my mind. Not going to happen. Strangely enough, the April system had a cold Arctic High to hold it in place, but the High arrived just in time. Ironically, our real cold will have left town by the time the low gets near us. It’s all about timing. Had the system come up the coast yesterday or today, very different story. Alas for us coastal dwellers.

  189. Noaa Discussion mentions ice for Central Mass on top of the heavy snow that is expected to fall. This would not be good. TK do you agree with their thoughts?

    SNOWFALL/ICE FORECAST…
    HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM IS EXPECTED FROM THE BERKSHIRES TO THE
    MONADNOCKS WHERE A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND WOULD NOT BE
    SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH 18″ WHERE PERSISTENT
    BANDING OCCURS. BUT NOT SURE WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR AND IT IS
    POSSIBLE IT COULD BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. AMOUNTS DECREASE TO
    THE EAST WITH FORECAST OF 6-10″ FROM BDL-ORH-MHT…UP TO 6″ NEAR
    THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND 2-4″ EAST OF I-95 ACROSS S RI AND SE MA.
    AMOUNTS LESS THAN 2″ LIKELY FOR CAPE/ISLANDS DUE TO QUICKER
    CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW…ICE ACCUM UP TO
    0.25″ POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CT INTO CENTRAL MA.

    1. In general yes. There may be a narrow strip where it’s warm enough aloft to rain but cold enough at the surface to freeze.

      I do think the banding they speak of may take place over NW MA into VT and western NH.

  190. What time is the change to rain expected in the Cambridge area? Have to be on road between 8-10 tomorrow morning.

  191. Tweet from Tim Kelley

    @SurfSkiWxMan: Agree with @MattNoyesNECN that Boston Snows 8″ 6am to 4pm tomorrow, w/ .2″ sleet & .3″ rain on top, possible 1″-2″ backlash snow, gusts 50+

  194. There’s that civil emergency warning again, this time for S. Carolina. 2nd time I’ve seen it this winter and cant recall seeing it in several winters previous.

  195. I wonder which model is currently verifying the best ….

    in terms of …..

    1) precip coverage

    2) precip type

    1. Great question, I was trying to figure that out myself. One thing I did notice is at least on radar it seems to be snowing south and east of both the 850 and 500 lines on the models. I don’t really know if it is snowing where the radar is saying it is or if really means anything. It will be interesting to see where the pressure starts dropping of the east coast later. No matter how this shakes down, it will sure be fun to watch unfold

    2. Great question, I was trying to figure that out myself. One thing I did notice is at least on radar it seems to be snowing south and east of both the 850 and 500 lines on the models. I don’t really know if it is snowing where the radar is saying it is or if really means anything. It will be interesting to see where the pressure starts dropping of the east coast later. No matter how this shakes down, it will sure be fun to watch unfold

  198. NWS still has my county (western norfolk) under a winter storm watch, but has lowered the snowfall amounts to 4-6.” They need to make a call one way of the other soon. I bet they downgrade to an advisory. Any advisory at all for boston and points south and east yet? I would think at least something since there will be some snow to deal with for the morning commute.

  199. Eric fisher tweet

    @ericfisher: Forecast trend this morning: may go even lower for snow from Boston-south. Pretty quick change to sloppy rain.

    1. Unfortunately, I think 12zGFS is accurate. Temps will climb rapidly. Could be some seriously icy roads early as the ground/surface will still be quite cold after this prolonged stretch of cold, but the precip will be mostly in the form of rain and we’ll easily see 40s at the coast by late tomorrow morning. That’s my humble opinion.

    1. True. Could see some places with over 20 inches, depending on banding and ratio’s. My guess is the cold will hang tough in most of Maine, given the positioning of the High (near the Canadian maritimes, correct?).

  204. TK, with current apparent trends, do u think the rain/snow line makes it as far Wachusett in Princeton, MA?

  209. TK any change from your Woburn prediction for snow amounts since yesterday? I think you say 4″ or so, then rain, then maybe another inch or two after. Thanks.

    1. No big changes. Lean closer to 1 inch early Friday with the back lash, versus the 2, though cannot rule that out – I just think the precipitation is overdone a bit on the back end.

  210. Cold air and snow hanging on tough in eastern NC. I’ll be keeping a close eye on coastal locations and what they encounter as this thing gets cranking up the coast.

  213. I can’t even believe this!! What a storm and we end up getting shafted!!! So frustrating for snow lovers!!! That dam high and no blocking!!!

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