Storm Update / A Look Beyond

621 Comments

9:50AM

PART 1 – THIS STORM

Deepening low pressure tracks from the Mid Atlantic northeastward and will pass over Cape Cod MA tonight, and bomb-out (rapidly intensify) as it moves through the Gulf of Maine early  Friday then away from the region. For southeastern New England, expect the following…

Precipitation/timing: Snow already developed early to mid morning across the region. Watch for a rain/snow line to cross Cape Cod then hang around the MA East Coast through midday. Heaviest bands of snow set up just northwest and west of this line. Rain/snow line progress inland during the afternoon. This line may delay for a while due to some cold/dry air aloft, before the warmer air finally overtakes it. Because of this I will add a little bit to the snow totals just inland. Dry-slot with less precipitation works northward into southeastern and eastern MA by early evening, but there may be a few lines of heavier rain showers and even thunderstorms in this region. Wrap-around moisture as the low pulls away moves back eastward as snow to the west and rain/mix back to snow eastward, though may be only spotty and light the further south and east you go in MA and RI. All of this should exit the region from southwest to northeast Friday morning.

Snow accumulation: Coating to 1 inch Cape Cod and Islands, 1-3 inches near Cape Cod Canal and Buzzards Bay areas up through eastern and central Plymouth County MA, 3-6 inches southeastern RI up along and just east of I-95 to the NH Seacoast, 6-10 inches west of this region with the higher amounts near and outside of I-495 from the Mass Pike region northward, 10-15 inches in higher elevations of north central MA into southwestern NH. An additional small accumulation may occur when a change back to snow takes place in the early hours of  Friday.

Wind: Gusts 40-50 MPH likely along the coast from the E as the storm approaches, becoming variable as the low crosses Cape Cod, and backing to N as the low begins to pull away toward the Gulf of Maine early Friday morning. Inland winds will be less strong, but will likely get stronger from the NE to NW during the morning Friday, gusting 35-45 MPH. Some wind damage may occur especially where wet snow weighs down trees and power lines. There may be little or no snow on trees and lines where winds are strongest, however, which would reduce the risk of outages somewhat.

Coastal flooding: Astronomically low at this time. Minor flooding and moderate splash-over likely especially around the time of high tide Thursday night (9PM-midnight). Splash-over is likely on north-facing shores during Friday morning’s high tide, but should be relatively minor.

PART 2 – A LOOK BEYOND

Low pressure pulls away later Friday leaving it drier and windy, but winds die down late. Another low pressure area tracks across or just south of the region early Saturday with a threat of additional snow – best chance of accumulating snow from Boston area south. Doesn’t look like a major storm, but close enough and potentially rapidly-intensifying low so much keep a close eye on it. Cold/dry Sunday-Monday. Next low pressure area Tuesday with snow/mix/rain possible.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Overcast. Snow grows steadier and heavier. Rain/snow line crosses Cape Cod and Islands and onto eastern MA and eventually NH coast, working inland during the afternoon, including east to west across RI. Sleet and some freezing rain along the changeover zone, greater threat for a period of freezing rain inland where it stays colder at the surface longer. See snow accumulations above. Highs by late day 32-44 from northwest to southeast across the region. Wind E to NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas, becoming variable over Cape Cod / Islands late day.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering off then another period of snow inland areas later, rain showers eventually changing to snow showers further east and south. Lows 25-30. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow or snow showers likely through mid morning eastern MA and southern NH. Snow may be briefly moderate to heavy with some accumulation and slippery roads especially north and northwest of Boston. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow or snow showers in the morning, especially Boston area southward. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 25.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows around 10. Highs around 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow to rain. Lows around 25. Highs around 40.

621 thoughts on “Storm Update / A Look Beyond”

  4. Thank you for the update TK.
    Snow with varying intensities continues here
    Sometimes VIS approaches 1/2 mile, while at other times
    it goes a bit above 1 mile. 😀

    1. I was very surprised to see North cancelled. It was sporadic in that area with cancellations. Seekonk, Attleboro, North, Mansfield, and others all cancelled. Some in the area have early dismissals, some nothing at all. Very uncertain as far as snowfall accumulations vs when it will rain in that area. I think the upgrade to a winter storm warning for northern bristol helped push that along though and scared schools into closing while others took the gamble

  10. Latest OBS from Bridgeport, CT

    09:52 NE 22 G 32 0.15 Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Breezy VV003 28 27 96% 14 NA 29.88 1011.7 0.15 0.26

    The bold digits is the visibility. .15 miles
    That would be 2-4 inches per hour for sure. 😀

  11. Thanks TK. Temp steadily rising. Is 22.6 at the moment. Still a ways to go. Steady snow, small flakes. Maybe .5-.75 inch

  12. Still very light snow in Walpole, intensity hasnt changed since it began around 8:30. No accumulation yet with roads and parking lot just wet. Just got an email from the fiance, she works in Matappan, she said, “what snow?” I told her to get in early since it would start snowing around 7am and there would be an inch or more on the ground by 10am. Needless to say, she’s upset at me she got in early for nothing, lol.

    1. I’m as surprised as you are. I expected a difficult commute for some into Boston. Nothing. Temp is 34, maybe even 35 by now. Snow is not sticking to roadways, and it’s light. While I believe the storm will ramp up, I’m afraid that when it does so it’ll be too late for accumulating snow in Boston at at the coast. Plus, there will be a changeover to cold rain (uggh!).

      I’m hoping for a nice surprise Friday night. Wouldn’t rule that out. And that system will be all snow. Right now it looks like a little bit, but who knows. Could be a nice fluff factor.

  13. Just got in a short time ago, and the roads are definitely getting slippery in and around the Brighton/Cambridge area!

  17. Tom or Sue, is it raining out by Plymouth and Marshfield? That would be my verification the above radar is correct with rain/snow line

  18. Had some interruptions to internet service around this area for a couple days which is probably accounting for the occasional difficulties accessing the site.

      1. AceMaster there are places on the shoreline of CT where there having white out conditions right now.
        Right now the snow is the coming down the hardest it has all morning where I am. Still some dark blues on the radar
        in Long Island Sound that will be moving north. Dry slot in the Delmarva which is going to move up here is going
        to stop these snow totals from getting really crazy.

  20. Mix of rain and snow here. If anything, I’d say more rain with a few wet snow flakes occasionally mixed in. Transition happened about 10-15 minutes ago.

    1. I agree. Despite what any models say, the event is ongoing and best bet at this point it just watch current weather and short term trends.

  24. Snow `intensity’ in Boston is NOT intense! Wind has picked up, but the snow really has not. OS did say a few days ago that this storm may have unloaded most of its moisture before it gets here. And, it kind of looks that way to me. Lazy flakes coming down. Plus the sky is not especially gloomy. Cloud layer doesn’t look thick, in other words. I’m sure we’ll get a few heavier bands, but with surface temps above freezing and changeover already occurring 40 miles to our south, I’m afraid we won’t even make it to 3 inches in Boston. And no, I don’t think there will be backlash snows that accumulate because there hardly ever are.

  25. Friend just drove NWH to Wellesley and said they can’t keep up with the snow so roads are slippery. I can’t figure what they can’t keep up with – are they getting more in that area? I’d be surprised if we have an inch here – maybe just

  26. light to moderate snow in Sherborn, about 1″ to 1 1/4″, early dismissal was announced.. I guess nobody wanted to roll the dice on a changeover to rain before normal dismissal

    2. Looking at this radar loop with Snow to the South and East of the current
      rain along the coast, it is virtually certain those locations go back to SNOW
      for a period before the REAL changeover.

      Current change to rain is just due to Boundary Layer issues with East Wind.
      😀 😀

      I think Boston gets it’s 6+ inches before the real changeover.

  29. what do others think for interior northeast mass? been ranging from 20 to 22 degrees here in billerica less than a half inch 🙁 hoping the snow starts soon so some good snow accumulation happens before a change over to sleet/rain and snow mix starts late afternoon.

    1. Snow in those areas have been very light and dry. Some very dry air. With this storm so far, as with many others, heaviest snow confined to a very narrow zone close to the rain snow line. Just north of that line, not much accumulation going on.

  30. Very strong echos just coming into the New Bedford area. That’s either extremely heavy snow with thunder and lightning, or sleet

  32. Inch and a half so far in Groveland with a temp of 27.3…..not a lot of wind and snow is falling as if the wind is coming from Haverhill to my north northwest

  33. Virtually all of Cape Cod is rain and there are mixes of rain/snow along the entire eastern shore of MA including Cape Ann.

    Here comes the battle. 😀

    1. Not a good sign that there’s mixing already. I now hear it against the window at work: rain and sleet. I’m afraid we may be done with snow, as I don’t see a changeover back to snow. If this is the case, we should declare the forecasts a bust for Boston, as we won’t even make it to 2 inches.

  35. Just spoke with a friend in Providence. Very heavy snow there. Up to 5 inches already. Changeover may be imminent, but they did get and are getting a dumping. Now, Providence is a bit inland (slightly colder today), which helps in this case. Boston’s coastal location may hurt. Sometimes those heavy bands never make it north. If Providence is getting that much snow, Charlie’s neighborhood should be in the action as well.

  36. NWS out of Upton, NY raised the snow total for my area to 14-18 inches up from the 10-14 inches earlier. I think that is a bit high with the dry slot coming through but will see and if there will be any thunder snow down here when the back lash comes in with some instability.

    1. Dry slot making it up the coast quickly, already around Atlantic City, NJ. I think a lot of these forecasts are banking on this part 3 of the storm with backlash snows to verify. Very difficult to pinpoint where this sets up.

    2. Agreed, ugly. And very strange to see places like BWI (well to our south, and normally not a snow zone) get over a foot and Boston essentially get nada. I think we can declare Boston a snow-free zone for this storm (at least accumulating snow) unless some miracle happens at this point. The battle has been won by the east wind and the relatively mild ocean waters. Unfortunately, the cold air never put up much of a fight.

      Sad, but there’s some hope for snowlovers tomorrow night, albeit just a touch of snow. And, I do see snow chances down the road.

  40. The light nature of the precip so far this morning has really allowed the warmer air to invade freely without resistance. It will be difficult to scour out. Snowfall picking up in intensity in Walpole as I speak. Everything starting to get covered.

    1. Agreed. It was way too light. I ran this morning at around 6:30am and was really surprised at: a. how warm it had already become; b. lack of intensity of snow. Though I never expected much out of this system for Boston and the coast, I did think a couple of inches were a sure thing this morning. That looks like it won’t happen. I also think all models OVERestimated qpf for Boston. If that dry slot gets in here this afternoon, we could be left with only some rain/mix/snow showers this evening. I highly doubt we’d get to 1qpf.

    2. East side of Providence has around 5 inches. Could be that elevation effect. You know, those high Brown students.

    3. The hype this year in particular has driven me bananas. We should all pay attention to the forecast that matters: TK’s. Most of the others are so overhyped and sensationalistic. Winds on Nantucket are picking up – gusting to close to 40mph, with light rain and 43F. Sounds like England. Indeed, Nantucket weather is probably the closest you’re get in NE to English weather.

  43. HEAVY snow in Coventry, CT. Coming down about 2″/hr now. Closing in on 4″ so far and we are still not quite in to the really heavy 40 dbz yellow band on the radar yet.

  44. Ughhh y does southern ct and Li always get the heavy bands. For ONCEE!! I want the dark green or yellows echoes on my area. The only time I have ever seen some really heavy snowfall was that snowstorm on december 9 2005 when the low bombed out. Isn’t the low suppose to bombout even more and get us in the heavy echoes of snow? Well I wish if that happens

    1. Depending on if we have enough cold air above us to hold as snow until the heavier area gets in, sometime between 1PM and 3PM.

      It’s really now a wait/see. I’m not a fan of the term “nowcasting” but so be it.

  49. Straight up rain in the south end. This is my nightmare weather. Anyone who likes it should be commited. 😉 I’m kidding of course. But it really is gross.

  50. Some towns on the CT shore (Stamford/Darien) reporting 10″ already. Up to 13″ in Suffolk Co. LI but looks like they have transitioned to rain.

  51. The heavy band trying to bring down cold air from somewhere up there is currently losing the battle to the warm air advecting in somewhere else up there over SE MA. 😉

    1. Yes, I believe you’re right. Warm air advection is indeed the culprit. From a meteorological perspective, these storms are interesting. Probably a good exam question for students of meteorology: Please provide a detailed scenario in which a coastal storm moving up the Eastern Seaboard produces snow in DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, but nothing (next to nothing) in Boston.

  53. 36 at the airport. All rain for now. Still think it flips back to snow (for a while) in Boston if it can come down hard enough.

  54. Boston will be lucky to see 2 inches. I think TKs now totals for interior SE mass are a bit generous. Warm air winning out.

    1. Agreed, that 36 at Logan will be 38 soon (water temperature, essentially).

      Well, I’m happy for some interior locations, and I believe some parts of ski country will be pleased with something. This is NOT, however, a megastorm. I am also very much doubting the forecasts (not TK’s) about 70mph wind gusts over the Cape this afternoon/evening. Perhaps 55mph, maybe 60mph, but not 70mph.

      1. When we say it will bomb out, i don’t think it will bomb out in terms of whats we’re used to seeing, as in intensity and precip. I think the storm’s potential energy? (not sure if that’s the correct term) has already been realized down in the south and mid-atlantic when phasing occurred. While the actual pressure will continue to drop, i don’t think typical pressure drop characteristics will be seen around here.

  55. Again Charlie, I’m in Mansfield and you are in Attleboror and it is Snowing buckets and I am east of you closer to the rain line- No rain yet…

  58. 5″ now in Coventry Ct. Wind really starting to whip up with very heavy snow. Pretty much a whiteout. Temp at 27F. Beginning to wonder if the dry slot makes it here before the changeover?

    1. Mark its snowing here an inch or two an hour and would not be surprised if its closer to the 2 inch an hour rate.
      NWS increased there snow totals for my area to 14-18 inches of snow.

  61. My niece just said Ch 5 is saying 1-2 inches an hour (possibly 3) between now and 3:00 – here. Is that accurate?

    1. Vicki that is certainly possible if caught under one of those heavier snow bands. Some of them here in CT and across Long
      Island NY were producing 2 to 3 inches an hour.

    2. It’s coming your way Vicki. Im about 15-20 due south of you and its pouring huge sideways snowflakes. Very heavy snow here moving north.

  64. JJ, this is fun while it lasts but with that huge dry slot coming, I can’t see you attaining 14-18″ UNLESS the backlash snows that come through tonight pack a wallop. NWS Albany in a previous statement talked about the potential for 3″/hr snows in the comma head tonight in western NE.

    1. I got 8 inches of snow right now. The snow started to really pick up just after 9 this morning. I think NWS should have
      stayed with their 10-14 inch forecast. I think we reach the 10 inch mark here with this batch of snow or the last batch that
      comes through overnight. If it were not for that dry slot these snow totals would be crazy.

    2. oh ducky – off to shovel round 2 then – thanks, Mark. And the elementary kids are about to be released – except my guess is buses from high and middle are running slowly so elementary will be out in the very worst of it. Brilliant call.

  67. 36 and a rain snow mix now with big flakes in East Bridgewater. Keeps flipping between rain/snow and straight rain. In a pretty good band now. Barely an inch before the rain mixed in.

  68. Mostly moderate to heavy rain here in Norwell right now. Some snow mixes in at times…got soaked in a matter of seconds…

    1. How close is that to Bishop Feehan? Just looked at the live webcam from there and it looks like all snow??

          1. well stranger things can happen I’ve seen that type of a difference between here and say South Weymouth…3 miles or so.

  71. As of 12:45- Westborough, MA- 3.7 inches, 23.3 degrees, DP 23, light NE wind. The snow is REALLY picking up now in intensity, I can barely see to the end of my street. Literally pouring snow.

  73. Thanks for all the reports EVERYBODY! Keep them coming. Heaviest snow so far in Woburn now. The gradient of snow from the coast to 495 in eastern MA is going to be nuts.

    1. Heavy non-accumulating snow in downtown Boston. Columns are cooling, which is good. Surface temp is an issue. Flakes are huge!

  74. It’s flipping back and forth but it’s continuing to pour buckets of wet snow and plain rain, I’m right on the line

    1. It will change over but this is the reason I upped the amounts a bit this morning – thought the heavy band would get in here early enough to fall as snow for a good part of it before the warm air above got this far inland. The flipping back to flakes near Boston is evidence of this. Eventually the warm air gets in, but it’s a bit of time away.

        1. Not really sure. In this area (Woburn, NW suburbs) best bet is to start shoveling between now and 2, and get most of it up before the changeover finally makes it here. That will be my plan – going out in about 1/2 hour.

  82. It is snowing at a beyond belief rate downtown. The flakes got briefly larger and now back to smaller. It is a white-out.

  83. The heavier snow in Boston now is exactly what Matt Noyes was referring to with his analysis. The city may not get as much as his initial prediction but what a fantastic piece of forecasting and analysis.

      1. I’m going to hold off a little longer too. POUNDING here.

        I’ll shovel a bit more to have less to do later.

        2. Funny…when I look out my deck slider, the snow seems so lazy and taking it’s time…when I look out my front it’s a blizzard.

  85. 5 inches – 3 of which were in the last hour. Visibility is awful. There was an accident pulling into the elementary school down the street and I turned my scanner on to here them ask why the ambulance was taking so long and then they said “her mother is here now.”

    Most buses had not arrived and they were supposed to be there before 2:00. Many of the roads they travel between the school and Marlboro/Sudbury are very narrow with tons of curves.

  86. Just came in from Lunch at home.
    Left the office at 12:2o and it was poring Rain with a couple of flakes mixed
    in. By the time I got to JP it was all snow. During the 1/2 hour I had lunch
    at LEAST one inch fell. My street got plowed.

    Temperature back down to 32 and it is SNOWING LIKE HELL!!!
    Visibility around 1/8 mile and the SNOW is accumulating RAPIDLY.
    ROAD ARE A MESS. At least 2 inches on most roadways.
    It’s SNOWING so hard, you could drown just being outside!!!!!

    It is BRUTAL OUT THERE and I MEAN IT!!!

    LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW!!!!

    I LOVE IT.

    1. Yeah, well maybe they will have to INCREASE them again? 😀
      We shall see if the stronger echos are Sleet or Heavy Rain or Both.
      If not, they will need to UP them as it is accumulating at about 3 inches
      per hour. 😀 😀 😀

  92. Boston’s new mayor who decided to keep the schools open is probably doing cartwheels around his office by now.

    1. I suspect he has lots of company. Newton was open also wasn’t it? Framingham didn’t close schools but closed its town offices for the day. Seriously, you absolutely cannot make this stuff up.

  94. Continues to pour in Marshfield with a few occasional lonely flakes mixed in.

    It must be chilly out, the snow is just absorbing it, but not melting.

    Glad to hear Boston doing well, but hope the power lines will fare well.

  97. I just got a chance to check outside again here…almost all rain and no sign of any snow, etc on the cars, etc in the past 45 minutes or so….those of you getting so snow…Enjoy!!

  99. I’m surprised though about the wind. I thought it would be more easterly, but things seem to be coming around to northeast. Even the harbor buoy is now 060, where it was 090 a while back.

  100. Tom,

    Look at the surface MAP above and the water vapor loop.

    It almost looks as IF the storm redeveloped about 100 miles or so
    to the EAST??????

  102. heavier echos are here and it is SNOW.

    Visibility about 600 yards!!!!! Yes about 2 football fields.
    I thought it snowed hard with that last storm.
    This is harder.

    I’m really NOT sure I have EVER seen it SNOW this hard.

    IT’s SNOW DIARRHEA!!!!!

  104. I am downtown and it is snowing at the rate of 100 inches per hour and every flake is the size of a car, but it won’t rain.

  105. As of 12:45- 8 inches of snow, Temp 25.7 (up 2.4 degrees from an hour ago), DP 25. Light NE Wind. Still pouring snow, 4.3 inches in the last hour.

  107. Ok – left Sherborn at 11AM 26°, returned at 2PM 29°, about 7″ dropped over that time… Probably looking at 8″-9″ total. NWS needs to bump up the snow forecast a bit unless we change over… right now.

  108. Yes, this is like April 1, 1997. How wrong was I to declare no more snow. I must be jinxing the rain gods.

  109. Well we have already achieved the forecasted snow amounts here…I think we can still pull out a lot more too

  110. Unless I am being impatient, it seems like this rain was a bust. I can only imagine Saturday’s 1-3″ will be 12-18″ by that morning. This is how this winter has been.

  114. SOMETHING MAJOR IS UP!!!

    Look at this radar RAIN/SNOW line!!! It has collapsed ALL the way to the CAPE.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=10&delay=15&rbscale=0.29782608695652174&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=428.5&map.y=230.5&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=1&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1

    UNLESS, of course it is WRONG.

    Tom, Sue
    What’s shaking down your way??? Did it change back to snow?

    2. Charlie…are you up in my area…cause it’s raining like crazy here with no hint of snow…Joshua…cmon Man please jinx my area 🙂

  115. I haven’t seen road conditions deteriorate so quickly in quite some time. This is unexpected. I’m over in the symphony hall area and there are cars sliding everywhere.

  116. It took me an hour to get from Natick Center to the Framingham/Sherborn line. Compact cars are getting stuck even on the main roads.

  121. Temp up to 30.3 here….6.5 inches…3 in just the last hour…..can’t see to the end of my driveway which is about 1/10th of a mile long

  123. Wow intense snow here in Reading. I was complaining earlier how I never get the yellow and Green echoes well, I got my wish!!! Dry slot is already here in southern Ma. I hope we got more in the backlash!

  125. to think i only had 1 inch of snow before 1230… now 7.8 inches of snow. visibilites less than 1/4 of a mile if that, and a breeze coming in from the north at 5-10mph temperature is at 26 degrees

    wonder how much longer i will have

    I have pictures to prove this. if no one trusts me ..

    1. Matt, we have eyes. We’re looking out the WINDOW.

      INSANE snow rates and that is here where the SNOW is WET!
      You still have SRY snow, so I can imagine how fast it is piling up!!!

      ENJOY!!!

  129. That was an intense snowband! Still all snow in Walpole but letting up a bit. I wish the heavier snow could hold on longer but that dreaded dry slot will be coming into play in the next couple hours. The minute the precip intensity goes down, look for that r/s line to come back west rather quickly. As for Charlie’s area, all radars im looking at do not show the rain/sleet down there. Radar shows snow into the northern 2/3rds of RI and all of northern bristol county. Must be a radar issue bc the r/s line that has been draped across the eastern coast of MA has been very accurate so far

  130. Lookimg at radar. Seemed like northeast and eastern mass got more snow than north central and westen mass. We got heavier bands than them! I wouldn’t be surprised if some areas in eastern mas ( the places that never saw mix) has more snow on ground than western mass! Everybody got dry slotted first except us! 🙂

  132. Snow has tapered off in NE CT to very light mixed precip. 8″ on the ground. Managed to stay all snow for basically all of the accumulating precip up front. Can’t complain.

    I have a feeling this backlash may surprise a few people overnight as well!

  133. I’m driving north on rt 1, it’s just raining, plows have done a great job bc rt 1 is clear,, lots of ponding of water heading to Foxboro

    1. Once u get to Walpole it will be a mess. Was snowing very hard here for a couple hours, letting up a bit now

  138. This snow was expected, just not quite this late in the day. What we’re getting now i expected to be coming down between say 9am-1pm then rain. Looks like schools based their decisions on that too. Its turning out to be the opposite.. That dry slot is almost as impressive to me as the intensity of the snow, theres very little convection within 100-200 miles of the low center! That back edge snow band looks like it will stay way west of SNE

      1. As of this morning, NWS originally had boston in the 6-8″ range and under a winter storm warning. It was since lowered to 4-6″ but i think given all the obs, it will verify.

  140. As of 2:45, 9.5 inches (1.5 in the last hour). Temp 26.5 degrees (up 0.8 degrees). Snow intensity has suddenly slackened and some bigger snow flakes have started to fall with the mostly smaller ones

  146. It’s so weird when u look at radar and you see it’s raining, but the radar telling me its snowing. I hate that

      1. Lol the radar saying snow, but its pouring on my windshield, I don’t get it, I asked Tk, he said it wasn’t his toy lol so idk 🙂

  148. Sorry, in and out of professional development meetings.

    Its pouring and we are now entrenched in the relatively “mild air”, as its 39F, but the wind continues to back.

    Has anyone seen the comma head, looks like there’s convection on its east side.

    Western and northern New England could get absolutely crushed by that later this evening.

    I wonder if we might see some convection from it ????

    2. Is it raining? It’s pouring south of Foxboro, I’m glad the snow stayed away, I gotta be honest, my area from Foxboro to na received between 3-4 inches, if it rains hard enough or long enough, maybe it’ll get washed away lol 🙂 take it easy longshot

  153. 9 inches here and sleet mixing in.

    Can someone tell me what they think comes now? I’m trying to figure if husband should leave work – or when he should leave work – thanks very much

    1. A break or lighter precip for a few to several hours. Temps still close to 32F out there, so careful on the roads.

        1. It doesn’t help that his phone battery seems to have gone south for the rest of winter. I’ll be a wreck now until he’s home since I have no way to know what is happening. What did we do before cell phones 🙂

  154. I have a total snowcover here in Wrentham of 10.2 inches, 4 inches today, I wanted to take the measurement before the rain compacts it down,

      1. both. one it shows the system not going over the southeast mass but just around nantucket to cape cod as well as the saturday storm developing quicker than previously

  156. Looks like the precip is going to shut off in Boston not long after we turn over to rain – that is if I’m reading the radar correctly???

  157. Euro doesn’t have accumulating snow from the coma head coming anywhere close to us. Far western MA into upstate NY northward through central and northern NE.

    1. The TV mets are now pretty much downplaying any backlash snows especially for eastern sections. AM commute would have been bad anyway, albeit temporary.

  158. Just finished shoveling at least for now, and heavy sleet here in Dorchester.

    **For those who are reporting what is happening, be sure to give your exact location especially if you are at work or just passing through! Thanks!! 😀

  159. NAM also now on board now for some saturday, but very light amounts and mostly south of the pike. 1-3′ tops. I suspect that will change though.

  161. Hi all! I’m not hiding. Just trying to clear the driveway. NWS put me in the 8-10 band and they were right. I’m nearing 9! Already 3 inches more than my top limit AFTER I adjusted upward. Nice. 🙂

    Matt Noyes gets BIG PROPS for his analysis of bigger snow amounts further E including Boston!

  163. Boston’s been downgraded to WWA, but instead of a change over to plain rain, NWS is calling for sleet and freezing rain. YUCK!

    SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF.BOSTON.QUINCY
    337 PM EST THU FEB 13 2014
    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.
    * LOCATIONS.CITY OF BOSTON.
    * ACCUMULATIONS.SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET & FREEZING RAIN.

    1. I haven’t been there all day. Had meetings downtown. But my employees wre sent home at 3pm. One is still there and she says it’s light precip.

    2. NYC’s mayor went on air to answer for having not telling non-essential ppl to stay off the road and he blamed the NWS for it saying the forecast was no good.

  171. No satellite all day – been waiting for rain to wash it clear! Not happening 🙂
    Looks like it’s time to hook up the antenna for locals!
    Are temps going up this evening?

  174. Now we can look forward to the meltdown which is as much fun as it falling, I say by next Thursday everyone will have bare grounds, 1 week from today 🙂

    1. Good be hard to do that there – 15 on the ground. Add a bit more tomorrow (not much), maybe more Tuesday. And warm-up now looks abbreviated (per Euro anyway).

        1. I know. I skipped forward in time. Exhausted myself shoveling. Not done. Going back out now. 😀

    2. I’d bet we have close to 20 on the ground. Not melting any time soon although removing it from the roofs sounds good. As long as it remains outside

  178. I will make a soft bet that Boston to Providence will have bare ground by next weekend, just a soft bet? I feel very confident 🙂

    1. Well…the CPC does have well above normal temps and precip starting mid-week next week through the end of the month…fwiw.

  180. I’ll take the warm weather, but like everyone has said this winter, it just wants to snow. I would not bet that we have seen the last snow storm this winter. It might not be in the next 10 days (though Saturday is possible), but there is the entire month of March and beyond.

  181. I would be interested in snowfall amounts for locations south of the pike, but inside 495, but no further south than say 495/95 interchange. Cutoff should be sharp. That area was my toughest call for accumulations.

    Dry slotted here in Amherst. Accumulations stopped about 3pm at about 6″. NWS zone here was 9-17″ I went 6-10″.

    1. JMA, i would consider myself in that zone in Sharon. Maybe right on 95 though. I would guess 4″ before rain heavily weighed down. I work in Walpole and it was the same there when i left right ad it was changing over, a solid 4″

        1. Wow, thats when it dropped in intensity/changed over in Walpole too. You must have gotten more snow before the real heavy stuff came in. Sherborn is 12 miles north of walpole

          1. May have just been the difference in cold, we stayed in the 20’s for most of the heavy stuff, it creeped above 30 after 2PM.

    3. Framingham is on pike so doesn’t qualify but might give you cut off idea. We had 10.75 before sleet and compacting. Down to just over 10 now but still light rain

    4. JMA my son said they had a snow day out at UMass….just for 6 inches?? Need to make sure he wasn’t snowing me 🙂

  182. Looks like I am in a good spot for some back lash snows later on tonight here in Watertown, CT
    9 inches of snow so far with a lull.
    Saturday snow looks like a light snowfall at the moment and yes the February thaw middle of next week into the weekend.
    Hopefully it is a gradual meltdown of the snowpack and we don’t get a rain storm.

    1. Good luck to you on that Jimmy! Here in Boston, probably not much more than a coating but Saturday might be interesting. We will see.

      1. Phillip the thinking is about 2-5 inches of additional snow where I am.
        Hudson River Valley west of CT looks to be the winner with this round of snow with 4-8 inches.

  183. To be truthful, i wasnt even expecting that much. It was probably the worst shoveling experience of my life. Absolutely hate storms like today, i dont care how hard it was snowing. Wet snow with rain on top is awful.

    1. 100% agree. Having to walk in the city this afternoon was something straight out of a horror movie. How deep does the slush puddle go? Who knows?!

  185. Totally didn’t expect 4 inches an hour early pm. Winds picking up. Tons of snow on the ground. Mac said Watertown didnt get this much but it was wetter and slipperier

      2. I think ur talking about saturday. Just took a peek and it really blows up a storm SE of the area saturday. Solid 6″ boston south

          1. BB on 4 said it has potential to be major, but at this point he thinks enough offshore to not cause major issues.

  189. Im wondering if track would have even mattered much with this storm. I have a feeling it was more the lack of a strong high to the north supplying cold air to the region for the duration. I’m still interested to see where the low eventually tracks.

  190. I think its a level 1 snow event for Saturday 4 inches or less at the moment. I don’t why but I have a feeling this could be one of these sneaky storm with surprises. Waiting to see the 0z runs and tomorrow’s 12z runs.

  191. There are some convective showers (tstorms ?) on the outer edge of the NYC radar and the Taunton radar that appear to be due south of central RI, headed due north.

    Are we headed for some thunderstorms in central and western areas later this evening ?

  193. The other interesting feature is this eastern Mass light-moderate precip, seemingly redeveloping down around Martha’s Vineyard and moving northward. Almost looks like a convergence zone on radar. There are NE to N surfacenwinds over a good part of eastern Mass, but E-SE surface winds and temps in the 40s at both Hyannis and Nantucket.

    I wonder if this microscale area of precip continues into the evening and if so, how might the comma head and its energy interact with it ……..

      1. Got lucky in a way because it stayed snow all through the heavy precipitation, and even though we got 3 inches more than my top end forecast amount here, we were spared heavy rain on top of it. Just drizzle/very light rain.

        1. Very good !

          Did you get that a majority of that in a very short window ? Must have been some incredible snow rates !

  199. Logan officially received 3.2″ of snow today bringing their seasonal total so far at 49.4″.

    Logan = 3.2″
    Brighton = 5.5″
    Chelsea = 5.2″

    1. Just got in from shoveling, and the cement was packed down to about 4″ (guesstimate). Still have a little less than a 1/4 left in the driveway, but need a short break!

  201. There have been a couple storms over the last couple winters in which the heaviest bands of snow have been located hundreds of miles away from the low pressure center. Today was one of them. I think we all remember the one last year that was the other. 🙂

  203. Oh yes I remember that storm last March. The storm was 600 miles offshore yet a lot of eastern New England had double digit snowfall totals.
    Waiting for the grand finale to this current storm system. Hoping that heavier snow band comes a little further east into western CT.

            1. A coworker told me yesterday he fills 5 or 6 of his wifes old pantyhose with rocksalt, ties the ends and lays them across his roof with one end just touching the gutter. Creates channels for the melted water to find the gutter.

              1. My problem is I rake the bottom part last week and now the ice damns are half way up. That trick really does work Ace.

  205. Coating an inch at best.
    Western New England and to the west in the Hudson River Valley of NY will get the highest additional accumulation with the last of this storm system. As I said earlier I would not be surprised somewhere in that area if there is thundersnow.

  207. 9 inches in Methuen, raining for over an hour now, when I get home from plowing for city…. I will be shoveling CEMENT.. UGH!

  208. Charlie, if we get another 6″ on saturday, do u still think there will be bare ground come next thurs?

  209. Echoing with JJ said, most areas see a coating to 1 inch out of the backlash. Though it is pretty impressive now, I think the strongest pulse of it goes just W and N of this area. Cannot rule out a 2 inch amount somewhere. Time window is 3AM-7AM.

    We may get a batch of showers and even a thunderstorm (with rain) from the south in the 10PM-1AM window.

  210. Did I hear right that whatever isn’t shoveled tonight will be solid ice in the morning?
    Would love to wait until morn to finish – around 8-9am, if I can!!!

      1. Yes Shotime…no hard freeze expected tonight and well above freezing temps tomorrow. I don’t blame you for wanting to wait. 🙂

  214. Goodness gracious …..

    Another bombing out low …… Sub 980 mb …. Thankfully SE of the benchmark. The NAM would make one think Cape Cod gets into the NW fringe of that storm’s comma head for a bit late Saturday.

    I better make a plan to get down there early in the day.

    Another 70 mph wind gusts projected with this weekend storm, out over the ocean.

  215. 00Z NAM has a nice 3-6 incher inside 95 to the cape. 18Z GFS with 6″ south of boston. That thing is close man. Last night’s euro had it just offshore, curious to see the 00Z gfs and 0Z euro’s take. The thing really blows up just offshore. Why cant that one have snow 100’s of miles away from its center???

  217. Not because of travel plans and not because I’m tired of winter ……… I dont think I want that storm to come closer. It looks downright nasty, even more intense than the current one.

    1. Looks like a tightly wound bowling ball rolling up the coast. This current storm trended closer, i see no reason this one shouldnt.

    2. I don’t think these old muscles can handle another. Shoveling isn’t bad but roof raking and swinging a crow bar used muscles I forgot I had. I have so much icy hot on me mac said I’m going to slip out of bed 🙂

      1. lol 🙂 Be Careful, Vicki! I called it quits tonight! I just felt like I was pushing it if I continued! Tomorrow’s another day 🙂

  218. ooZ NAM also has the comma head snow basically along the hudson valley of NY and then into northern VT with another 12″

        1. You’re on! I’ll take a pic and post. Even with this rain, it hasnt even touched the snow i already before today which was a solid 10.” Total on the ground now probably about a foot. Now way thats gone by friday night, esp if we add to it saturday 🙂

  219. I’m still leary of seeing what tomorrow morning’s NW wind and wind gusts end up being once this intense low passes our latitude.

    That next one looks like an even more tightly wound, intense little center. I certainly want no part of that circulation close to our coastline.

  220. Weather Channel just showed some video of Thunder and Lightning today in VA while it sleeting! This was one intense storm!

  222. Remember 4 days ago, Blizzard of 2014 lol I just think its so irresponsible, I remember hearing the guy, go out and buy your yardstick, my kids hearing us just asked where the blizzard was lol, I said in Maine 🙂

  224. No more predictions from me this winter. I’ve struck out. It wasn’t a called third strike. But, I missed it by a wide margin. I thought Boston would top out at 2 inches with this storm, and I’m sure there was more (surprised Logan is only saying 3.2). But, what surprised me most is when the snow happened. As ARod pointed out to me last year in a post, it can snow and accumulate with surface temps above freezing. It just has to snow really hard!

    I don’t dare say anything about Saturday’s surprise. I’m driving to see my Mom in Vermont tomorrow. That should be OK as the snow will have departed by mid morning, but I may have to return tomorrow night (or very early on Saturday) to avoid the Saturday snow. My car does poorly in the snow, and that’s being charitable to my car.

    It does look like a spring preview of sorts is coming from Wednesday through Sunday (not my prediction, but the 10-day outlook). This said, this spring tease will likely be just that. A nice tease before we’re thrown back to the winter wolves again.

      1. Logan got 3. Boston, the actual city that is not an airport sticking out into the middle of the water, received several inches more

        Joshua, you still did a great job!!

          1. I LIVE in the south end, three blocks from Copley square. We recieved well over three, Charlie. We have a beautiful park right behind my condo where I was able to measure 4.7 inches of new snow. Was your wife measuring on the concrete that surrounds south station? Or maybe the road?

              1. That’s not Logan either, it’s Boston, plus they go by Logan anyways, so in 100 yr when they look at the records, they will look at Logan, not south end, just saying

              2. Charlie…are you off your meds or something. Jeez…For a few weeks you were fine now you’re pissing people off again. Settle down dude..get back on the meds and enjoy like…don’t be a dick.

                3. Your telling me I’m wrong ds, that more than 3 inches fell in the seaport district, you told me 4.7 fell in the south end, awesome, don’t tell me 3 inches didn’t fall somewhere when it didn’t, it’s simple, If not then I’m sorry we avoid 🙂

      1. Actually Charlie I was here. And you know what I’m not a tough guy but neither are you. You come out with bluster and bravado but all that is washed away (like the rain that seem to hang over your neck of the woods). You feel like you can come out here and taunt, tease and generally make other people feel less than you while in your own weak mind puffing yourself up. You say TK’s son reads this..well he’s gotten a pretty good lesson from you on what type of person not to be.

        1. So let’s see Charlie…you want me to email you in private…nope…no way…you start your crap in public…it ends in public. I have no clue why you come on this board….why Charlie? Do you really enjoy getting people worked up….A lot of people out here have issues with you…a lot.

        2. Your 1st mistake is judging someone by texting, I’ve been on the blog since the beginning, I think I was the 15th person allowed on the blog, I’m not going anywhere, for u to call me names and you don’t know me, I don’t want to be the person u are, let’s just avoid each other, that’s all, I can do that, just don’t call me names behind a wall, thanks Keith

          1. So let me get this straight…you can come out here and make people feel like crap and taunt and rile people up…but that’s ok?? But God forbid I should call you out on it and call you a name (you must be really thin skinned btw)…and that’s not ok? Wow your really messed up imho….but that’s my opinion and in your mind I’m the bad guy in all of this. Wow…oh and btw I could give a hoot if you were the 2nd, 15th or 1000th person on this blog…it doesn’t matter to me…Crud like that only matters to people like you who have to measure, pigeon hole things and put everything into buckets or categories….Right I’m now just sitting back shaking my head and laughing at how ridiculous you are. I’m going to take DS’s way of dealing with this (and I know I’ve said this before) and not even respond to your antics anymore.

            1. I don’t ever feel like in rifling people up Keith, maybe it sounds like that, certainly not in a mean nasty way, I do joke and have fun, possibly at times going past the fine line, and i do say sorry for that but not trying to troll or make people feel like crap, it’s not my goal at all,

        3. If you don’t like me, 1 of 3 things, you can meet me at 1 of these great meetings that we do, and maybe just maybe you’ll see the real person behind those texts, 2) avoid me or 3) avoid the blog, idk what to do from this point, but I certainly hope u have a safe night

          1. final comment…to the above…

            Let’s see….I’ve talked to some people who’ve met you…yeah they weren’t impressed so that’s not high on my hit list. Avoiding you does seem to be the best way of handling it (I wish I could block your posts) and 3 avoid the blog…hmmm once again you telling people what to do. Have a great night.

            1. Impressed about what I may ask, I didn’t say much, plus i ciuld only stay fir 30 min and I would like to know who that was, it could only be 1 of 3,

  228. 3.2 for both Boston (Logan) and Winthrop. Consistency out by the runways.

    Thunder being observed in Milford along with some heavy showers right now.

  229. Charlie, all bitterness aside, I notice from your email address (which, why would you EVER put on a public forum???) that your last name is Parker?!

    Charlie Parker? I hope you take that name seriously! Quite a name to live up to. 🙂

    Now Please return to you regularly scheduled blog battle.

    2. I’m not bitter ds, I guess I’m a sarcastic texter at times, and it can come off rude, anyways it’s Palmer

      1. I love Weather Report’s version as well.

        I am a big fan of Manhattan Transfer though and I love their rendition. Also, many of the musicians on the album “Extensions”, which Birdland was on, were in the band Toto (another favorite of mine), and some of them also played on Donald Fagen’s first solo album, “The Nightfly”, which is one of my favorite albums of all time.

        1. Did you ever see the Ken Burns/PBS series Jazz? It was fantastic…my son who at the time was a preteen at the time it aired love the music and the history. Gotta go listen to some Count Basie a little later and chill 🙂

            1. Some parts of it are available for viewing on Youtube (with Spanish subtitles)..It maybe available on Amazon but if it’s OOP then it probably would cost a pretty penny. I was actually able to find his Civil War series (in full) on YouTube.

  233. I got 4 plows trying to clear snow from the drains, the water is almost coming over the plow, very intense rain

  235. We are set to narrowly escape an epic blizzard on Saturday afternoon/evening. I think it will be a near-miss, thanks to low pressure hanging out over the Maritimes, and steering it more eastward than it would have otherwise had the plan to do…

    CLOSE CALL.

  236. 11.7 inches of snow, been freezing rain and sleet mix since the change over. maybe an inch or two of snow tonight into tomorrow early morning.
    and wow saturday might become something?
    tuesday looks warm for areas inside of 495 but snow outside of 495 and north of the pike
    oh by the way in total i have 23.4 inches of snow on the ground

  238. We had thunder and lightening here for a few minutes, around 12:15AM, probably the same cell Charlie heard moving north.

  239. What an amazing storm – so much to watch outside, I was on the computer very little today. Just wanted to report that in my neighborhood in Chelmsford, we got about 10″ of snow, followed by freezing rain which started around 6pm. Now, nearly 1:45am, it’s been sleeting for about 10 minutes. Trees are glazed over, looks really pretty, but I’m sure the roads are fairly treacherous. We’re all so lucky there weren’t too many power outages, and those that happened, were restored quickly.

    Be careful on the roads this morning, everyone, and thank you TK and everyone else for doing a great job on nailing this storm!

  240. Wild night.

    Got 1″ of ball bearings overnight with another 1″ of snow on top of that. Still snowing. Up to 11″ total do far.

    Really hoping we have a shot at this thing over the weekend. So close.

  243. Snow winding down where I am but not after close to a foot of snow.
    I hope this next storm system develops a little faster but eastern New England looks to be the area to get the most snow.

  245. I wonder how much snow Albany, NY got overnight from part 2 of the storm, as they have reported .78 melted in the last 6 hrs…….

    Kind of cool, center of comma head is directly overhead. Wonder what the NW winds will be like after perhaps 8-9 am.

  246. Can’t for the life of me comprehend why anyone wants an “epic blizzard” tomorrow. It would be beyond dangerous at this point.

    1. It will do what it will do, but I hear what your saying and agree that ….. With what the models are showing on this one, I’m not really interested to see what the full effect of this bombing entity would do.

      Ironically, I’ll be down the Cape, so I might get a close look at it. 🙂 🙁

  249. Get that storm developing quicker and throw the bigger snow totals my way tomorrow.
    Early call is dusting to 2 inches where I am. Heavier totals further east so snow lovers who were disappointed yesterday in eastern New England I don’t think will be disappointed especially if the current model trends hold.

  250. Saw one TV snow map for tomorrow’s storm showing 6+” in SE MA and Cape and it might include city of Boston. Metrowest area 3-6″ and 1-3″ toward Worcester. It’s all about the track.

  252. What a bonanza for the Berkshires before school vacation. Place coming in close to two feet!! Good for them.

  253. Morning,

    What a cool day yesterday. looking out the window with that intense snow,
    it sure looked like a rate of 3-4 inches per hour. Problem was the snow was so WET
    that it only managed to accumulate an inch or so per hour.

    At JP, we received 4 or 5 inches of CEMENT!!!!

    Part 2 is happening now.
    Snowing, but only lightly.

    I am now focused on Saturday. Model guidance is all over the place.
    GFS and FIM are most aggressive with the system.

    I give you the FIM:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014021400/236/3hap_sfc_f048.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014021400/236/totp_sfc_f072.png

    I give you the GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014021406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=045

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021406&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    1. I give you the 0Z Canadian view 1

      http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014021400/I_nw_g1_EST_2014021400_051.png

      View 2

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=054&fixhh=1&hh=048

      I give the 06Z Canadian CMC-RDPS / Explorer

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=045

  255. A couple things look certain right now.
    1. The storm is going to deepen once it hits the coast.
    2. There will be accumulating snow in SNE tomorrow.
    The unknown.
    1. The exact track
    2. Will the higher snowfall amounts shift back to the west if the storm tracks closer to the coast.

  256. Theres enough model consensus to warrant the winter storm watches posted earloer this morning for 6+” in SE sections

    1. Virtually all storms this Winter tracked Farther N&W than originally
      Modeled. IF we stick to the prevailing trends, we should get clobbered with
      an all out blizzard tomorrow evening.
      😀 😀

        1. Snow rake lost a bolt this morning while getting more big chunks of ice off the roof…..hope Home Depot has a bolt the same size!

  261. Snow all of a sudden just POOF here and disappeared from RADAR.

    AS if the Snow Gods said ENOUGH and done with it. 😀

  262. The mayor of Jersey City, NJ catching it big time for keeping schools open. Always a tough call.

    Public schools in Worcester closed today.

    1. Did you see al rokers tweets to mayor of NYC. And the mayors reply. Roker criticized mayor for telling people to stay of road and keeping workers home and still sending kids to school.

      1. If I was a parent in NYC I would not have sent my kid to school yesterday. Bill De Blasio the NYC mayor standing
        there at his press conference yesterday saying schools have been closed only 11 times in NYC since 1978 and its
        tough for parents who have to go to work to find people to watch their kids where if they are in school they are
        safe and not alone. Yes I agree its a pain to find someone to watch your kids on a snow day when your a parent who has to get to work but the conditions yesterday in NYC were bad and to me it was not safe down there for kids to come to school.
        Just another critcism for the new mayor after being criticized for a bad clean up on the upper east side after a storm in
        January.

        1. JimmyJames – I absolutely agree. As I said yesterday, Framingham sent kids to school but told town workers to stay home. Sending all the kids because some can’t find daycare to me is totally irresponsible.

  263. As Gil Simmons our meteorologist here at WTNH in CT said a 20 mile difference in either direction will make a difference in snow totals. I like his honesty saying this is a low confidence forecast with some models giving a lot more snow than others.
    Waiting to see the 12z runs but snow lovers in eastern New England this looks to be your storm this time.

  264. I have a question and I know there is no absolute answer. I’m trying to decide whether to hire someone to shovel our biggest roof. Last time my SIL did it, it took about 4 hours. We have about 16-18 inches on it. I know the temps are going to warm but does anyone think we will see significant melting? It faces north. Thanks so much for any ideas/advice.

  265. Vicki I would remove the snow from the roof and also make sure there are no ice jams in your gutters. At my mom’s house the guy is coming today to clear off the snow and break the ice jams in the gutters. She does as a percaution as there issues with water getting into the house after all that snow we had back in January 2011 and all the weight of the snow on the roof.

    1. Thanks JJ – We don’t have a gutter on that roof as it seemed to cause more problems. But we do have huge ice dams right now. My SIL said he’d shovel the roof tomorrow. I think your advice is very sound as we also have had past problems with that roof.

  266. ***
    Major comm issue this morning resulted in a loss of data assimilation for the 06z model suite. Not that we put huge stock in them, but the 06z NAM and GFS are even more questionable than usual.

    1. So far, the 12Z NAM seems to be develop tomorrows system quicker and further south and west than the 06Z. Actually bringing surface temps above freezing through hour 28

      1. That initial development is a primary and there will be a secondary that develops a little further E giving the low the appearance that it jumps eastward.

  267. 29.2 with wind gusting up to 27 mph. Trees have that brittle sound when the branches hit together. How is the wind along the coast?

    1. Coastal wind won’t be much worse today since this is a sweeping west wind. Gusts above 40 pretty much everywhere.

  269. 12Z giving an oh so close shave to the area. Showing big time snows already for the Cape and islands, 12″+ with blizzard conditions. Still showing a good 3-6″ for boston with numbers going up quickly as u go south. Its a matter of 50 miles between an all out blizzard in all of SE MA.

  271. Pockets of moderate snow in this final band coming through now. Don’t be surprised at brief squall-like band coming through in the next hour to 90 minutes for eastern MA.

  272. TK, just wanted to thank you again for this blog. I read it every day, all year, but rarely post because I don’t have the knowledge to say anything that I feel would be meaningful. I appreciate the insights that you have “behind the weather forecasts,” which is what I am looking for. I guess you’d call me a person who loves weather but could live without snow. So sometimes it bothers me when people here cheer for snow, the higher the amounts the better, but realistically I know I can just read your posts, and sometimes JMA’s, and still get great benefit from the blog. An added bonus is that we are both Woburnites, so sometimes I get a real close-up look on what is happening in my own backyard.

    1. Thanks Linda 🙂

      Feel free to post anytime. No extra weather knowledge is needed. 🙂

      Go Woburn!

      1. Agree – I know nothing and it doesn’t stop me. Ok everyone stop laughing at me 🙂 And Happy Valentine’s day !!

        I don’t think we cheer for snow as much as we cheer for weather. It’s a very fine line so I understand totally what you mean !!!

    2. Good to see you again Linda…us Woburn people have to stick together. I also don’t enjoy snow rooting (I sometimes wonder if I am the only one with a job…kids…private property?). Best you can do is filter it out.

  275. TK, what are ur gut thoughts on this system? I know we really dont have much time to ponder this one and stakes could be high. Ive been hearing the departing storm will have a big influence on where this ends up tracking and it will most likely force it south and east of us, but with all these systems being so progressive, i cant see that system still hanging around up there too long to have much effect on the placement of the next system.

    1. I think the Cape gets nailed, I think SE MA gets moderate snow, and I think once you get NW of Boston it’s a lighter system (similar snow profile to a February 1988 “Cape Blizzard” if it reaches its full potential).

      You are absolutely right about the progressive nature of previous systems allowing the next ones to be closer.

      Still a bit of time to figure it out – but not much. 🙂

        1. please tell me the snowy road conditions are late afternoon or evening and thereafter and that I can get there fairly safely around noontime.

          1. You should be fine.

            A couple other friends of mine are heading down there tonight for the weekend. I told them to bring a snowblower along. 🙂

  278. We have sideways borderline moderate snow in Woburn now as that band moves through. Wind is straight out of the W.

          1. Yeah I have been mobile until now and couldn’t do anything…work shackles me with a blackberry to boot. Personally I hate lingering storms…snow and move on. Part of it is my fault with my extreme snow removal OCD.

            1. We have you covered here. 🙂
              Most of what just fell will probably evaporate/melt this afternoon.

  280. Squally blowing snow downtown as band moves through.

    For tomorrow, I don’t think it would take much more than a 25 or 50 mile shift in the track to change the projected amounts.

    1. In either direction too. But my gut tells me, if theres any shift from current guidance, it will be further west and/or larger precip shield

    2. Gil Simmons meteorologist here at WTNH was saying a track 20 miles in either direction will make a difference.
      He said further east drag the dusting to snow further east and if it is further west drag the 4-6 inch farther east.

  282. I have this strong suspicion that tomorrow’s system is going to sneak up on the metro area. Call me crazy, but this has been the trend of many a storm this season.

      1. I also agree with that! Last snow we see? Certainly not. But I feel the overall trend will be warm-er.

        That being said, I still have a strong feeling that “Spring” will be cold and raw. More so than usual.

    1. I want it to track further west but just enough to get it into my area along 95. Any further west where theres a lot more snow on the ground and it could really cause some serious problems

  284. 12Z GFS very consistent with the 00Z and 06Z. Takes saturdays storm right over the benchmark. Heaviest axis of snow right along 95 with a solid 8-10.” Has some warmer air getting involved over the Cape and Islands on this run with less down there.

  286. Very interested in what the 12z GFS and EURO say along with the 0z runs tonight. The thing is so close where a bit of a shift east or west will make a big difference.
    I agree with you AceMaster more snow would cause serious problems. I know I got a snow depth over a foot and half and there is already talk where are we going to put the snow.

    1. See last post JJ. 12Z GFS is out and has most snow along 95 in eastern MA. We’ll see if the 12Z euro follows suit

  288. That run shows 4 5 inches of snow for my area in CT. Its up an inch from 6z run and gives a little more snow to the CT shoreline. A little bit of a shift back west it looks to me. Have to watch this.

  289. Hi Everyone, I just want to be clear. When TK responded to my post above about a possible Big storm. I wasn’t cheering for that I was looking for a couple of inches. I know having snow causes damage to many parts of our society I just enjoy seeing snow. I’m much more nervous of a hurricane or something worse that would cause massive damage. I never am looking for people or businesses to be hurt.

  290. Pete made a bold call (60 next weekend and the straw that broke the back of winter).

    The pattern coming at the end of February and early March will say otherwise. 🙂

    1. HA I hope he’s right but I am not buying it. Curious though…he must see what you see…why do they make those calls?

      1. He’s a self-admitted aggressive forecaster. I don’t see it that way, as you’ll see on my update. 🙂

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