Sorry We Missed You!

605 Comments

11:35AM

As if to make up for areas  not dumped upon with snow from Thursday’s storm, a new storm will explode just south and east of New England Saturday afternoon and evening and attempt to “fill in the gaps” over southeastern MA and Cape Cod. But first, we’ll be dealing with wind today from the departing storm that was the latest winter whack. The snow showers that moved through the region during the morning are on their way out but the wind will hang on during the day, blowing out of the west sustained at 15-35 MPH with frequent gusts above 40 MPH. Minor tree damage is possible especially in areas where branches have been stressed with heavy wet snow since yesterday. Winds settle down tonight as the storm pulls further away. But on its heals is another storm, born of a vigorous disturbance diving out of the Midwest and entering the western  Atlantic via the Mid Atlantic States early Saturday. This storm will deepen rapidly Saturday afternoon and night while passing southeast of New England, but close enough so that parts of southeastern New England do not escape a potent snowstorm. At the moment it looks like the worst of it will be confined to Cape Cod, with a moderate impact over southeastern MA up to near  Boston, and less of an impact to the north and west. But this needs to be watched, as it will have a very sharp cut off to the heaviest snow and strongest wind, and a shift of 30 miles in the storm track one way or another will make a big difference in impact. The forecast below will reveal the current thinking on snow amount, timing, and wind, but it is not set in stone.

After the Saturday storm threat, expect a howling wind and late-season Arctic cold Sunday, then less wind but still cold weather for Monday (Presidents Day). Beyond this, there has been talk of a major pattern change, and though I do agree we enter a milder regime next week, I do not think it is good for every remaining day of next week nor do I think we’ll be storm-free. More on this over the weekend…

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Clouds and intervals of sun. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 15-35 MPH gusting 40-50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows near 10 inland valleys to middle 20s coast/urban centers. Wind W diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow east central MA to south central NH midday into afternoon. Snow developing mid to late afternoon from RI through southeastern MA. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow, heavy at times, Cape Cod and Islands as well as into southeastern MA south of Boston, and light to moderate snow elsewhere, diminishing west to east toward dawn. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches north and west of Boston, 3-6 inches Boston to RI and interior southeastern MA, 6-12 inches Cape Cod Canal to Mid Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, 12-18 inches Outer Cape and Nantucket. Snow amounts subject to change with very small shifts in storm track! Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH except 25-45 MPH Cape Cod, with higher gusts possible in all areas.

SUNDAY: Clearing except clouds and snow showers lingering over Cape Cod. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH and gusty, diminishing late. Wind chill around 10 at times.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow or mix. Low 20. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 40.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Ice or rain. Low 30. High 35.

605 thoughts on “Sorry We Missed You!”

  4. Im curious to see the GFS ensembles for the 00Z through todays 12Z to see if they jive with the op runs. Does anyone have that info? OS? GFS is consistent in the heavier snow setting up along 95 and sparing the cape (i think it has some warmer air working in to that area). NAM is the most robust on Cape snow, and 00Z euro to some extent as well.

    1. What’s up am, we got that friendly bet? There r a handful of good bloggers on here, your 1 of them, good day

      1. Considering we may add an additional 3-6″ and possibly more by sunday morning? I’ll take that bet any day of the week! 🙂

      2. I think we need to sweeten the pot or something. If you win, for an entire week, i will have to change my blog name to something like iHateSnow. But if I win, u have to change ur blog name to something like iLoveSnow, or iLoveBoston 😀

            2. I will probably lose, but I’ll do it for fun lol, I’m always up for a harmless bet, plus it’ll be fun 🙂

            3. The T bugs the crop outa me cause my wife has to deal with there inefficient ways they do things ugh anyways 🙂

  6. Thanks Tk, other than the wind not a bad day, hadi if u could at your convenience please shoot me an email, thanks in advance 🙂

  8. Thanks TK

    I sent you an email Charlie.

    I actually think this storm ends up a little closer and brings warmth to the Cape and Islands. Just my humble opinion. So I would cut down accumulations down there and bring higher ones closer to the Bos-PVD corridor.

  9. Tk I think your high temps r low going into next week by what I’m seeing on some models, but I’m no expert, we shall see 🙂

    1. We shall. Keeping Thursday in the 30s is a gamble. But I think a series of shortwaves is going to delay the warmup and I really only think 1 or 2 days will be appreciably mild (Friday & Sunday next week).

    1. Probably confined to north facing shores, especially Cape Cod, with more of a northerly wind. This low takes no time being east of Cape Cod with N-NW winds in a hurry to take place there.

  11. I am betting EURO comes in closer to the coast, its been late to the game with these semi Miller B storms this winter.

      1. I am planning on double that…agian, this went form nothing to coating to 1-3″ now 3-6″…forecasting this winter has been humorous to say the least.

    2. NEADS is a first class organization – my wife’s service dog was trained there and they do wonderful work. Thanks for sharing.

  17. Thank you TK!!! Wind has a mind of its own. Sometimes is very quiet and sometimes shakes the house slightly.

  23. Looks like 0.5″ QPF as far west as Worcester and the CT/RI border. Likely watches/warnings will be extended further W by NWS in the 4PM package.

  25. Really curious how ratios will be. I dont think they’re high like some of the powder storms, but not overly low like yesterday. 12-1 or 10-1 seems reasonable given the temps.

  26. Like I said, don’t believe any forecasts this year. Tuesday is supposidly rain…don’t believe that either. I literally have no where to put anymore snow based on how my property is. In fact, after tomorrow, I will need to shovel out my whole foundation. Snow sucks.

  27. DT swearing up and down eastern NE does not see a lot of snow. He said that before the 12Z euro came out though. He may have to change his tune soon.

    1. Where is this guys site? Not for nothing but I think he was accurate on the last storm…wasn’t he calling for high amounts when we all thought lower with rain?

      1. I think he knows his stuff, but a lot of times his bold predictions come to fruition out of pure luck. His forecast for yesterday busted in as many places as it was right. Not sure what he was calling for up here.

      2. WXrisk.com on Facebook. Don’t drink the kool-aid. The guy is a disaster. Sure he may get it right occasionally, but he’s also incredibly arrogant and rude.

        Also, his posts are riddled with typos, which drives me up a wall.

        1. Exactly. If anything, its entertaining reading some of the posts. He denies todays 12Z euro has any support whatsoever.

        2. HA just read this…I see what you mean…

          “NEW ENGLAND SNOW WEENIES Over reacting to the weekend event . After all GFS did a GREAT job with yesterdays event — NOT !!”

          1. Mmmmmhmmmm. New England weenies, eh? We’re not the ones that literally shut down and have to spend the night on the highway when it snows one inch.

            😉 😉

  28. Eric Fisher is mentioning on twitter the possibility of a Blizzard Watch being posted for Cape Cod and possibly the South Shore. The trend this Winter has been closer…

        1. Pattern of Suck. 🙂 Hope it ends soon. I don’t mind a storm here and there…but 2-3 a week, forget it.

          1. Hehe. I know, WW. I have to walk the dogs three times a day in the south end. It’s a tough go! Not to mention shoveling the car out when the plows have shoveled it IN.

            But, this is New England. And I’ll be damned if I don’t love it!

    2. whenever someone starts an argument with “idiots” it is to divert attention away from the fact they don’t really have much ground to stand on with respect to their position. Classic move, typically reserved for those in elementary school

  36. Why is he so angry all the time? Even when someone makes a valid point he takes it as a personal attack

    1. Wow! Look at all that atlantic moisture getting wrapped up in the circulation and just slammed into the coastline!

      1. It’s cold, no boundary layer issues, this is sneaky, and it very well might be the biggest of the season, we shall see, sue, you may be in for a foot plus

  39. Dt thinks everyone is an idiot! Calling people names on blogs is just cowardly IMO, that’s all I say, I told him he was an idiot and he deleted me owell, anyways this could be a big 1

  42. Made it to Hanover, NH. Roads are good. It’s still snowing gently here. The landscape was absolutely spectacular. I mean really nice, as the trees were snow covered. Nothing beats winter and fall in New England.

    As for Pete’s comments about next weekend. Sure, it’ll get much warmer. It’s supposed to. But, Pete knows that spring is NOT around the corner, unless he’s a recent transplant to NE. He says this for ratings and attention. People do look forward to spring. I get that, even though I’m not spring person. I see two pattern changes in the coming two weeks: From Arctic to mild; and from mild to cold but not Arctic, with plenty of precip chances. I’ll head home tomorrow morning early to beat the storm.

    1. I agree Joshua, with a lot of transplants moving here the last decade are thinking March 1st is the beginning of spring hence why you always here groans and moans especially once we reach march 1st, good day josh 🙂

  44. DT…

    “With respect to New England I have no problem forecasting a least a few inches of snow for Boston — maybe something like 3 to 6 inches and possibly even for Providence Rhode Island. But that does not count as significant snow. of course some idiots new England weenies will pop up shortly and argue otherwise.

    As I said yesterday I think the system is going to pass too far to the south and east to bring mainland New England a significant snowstorm.”

  45. Keep coming back further west so I could get in on the snow fun.
    Mark I think your part of CT is going to be the winner in CT on this one. Current thinking for my area is anywhere from a dusting to 5 inches.

    2. I agree, I should see more from you on this one but even we will be on the outer fringe of the main precip field. Close call. I’ll be happy if we can squeak 4 or 5″ out of this one.

  48. Yes I do Charlie. I hope to get something measurable from this. I got a foot of snow from this last storm. Mother Nature trying to be fair here and give the snowlovers in eastern new england the dumping of snow they did not get from last storm.

  57. Well the more I don’t want snow, the more we get…so trying some reverse psychology here…Bring it on!

  58. Good NAM run for you guys bad one for me. I am rooting for the 12z GFS to be right. It gives my area 4 5 inches.
    I maybe sitting out this one with the big snow totals. Enjoy this one guys!

  62. Remember the rules that qualify a blizzard!

    Even though the winds may be the same speed as the Cape, they might not be expected to sustain for the same amount of time (3 hrs.?) in Boston. The Cape is closest to the storm and it is expected to be progressive as it is. This happened during a previous storm in which blizzard conditions did not apply to Boston (technically) but everywhere else near the shoreline.

    Of course as always, we will see.

  63. I booked this trip to the mid-outer Cape thinking it might get us AWAY from the snow, a couple of days by the Bay and who knows, maybe a nice, sunny 40F day to walk the snowless beach……. There goes that plan, LOL !!!

    1. You should have booked for Sochi instead, Tom. They’re literally begging for snow and cold right now LOL. 😀

  67. All runs of the GFS today have been a bit of an outlier having more snow just inland away from the cape with the cape warming enough to mix and/or rain.

  70. Here is the NWS write up

    LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS RACE TO THE
    NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW AN
    INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THERE…PASSING
    NEAR HE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS HAD
    INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS…WE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WITH QPF
    FROM THE NE RIVER FORECAST CENTER. WE ALSO ADJUSTED
    TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ALLOW FOR WET BULB COOLING ONCE THE
    PRECIPITATION COMMENCES.

  74. More and more medium range evidence that the big warm-up prematurely advertised is a no-go. In fact next week looks rather unsettled. And below normal temps return the last week of February into early March.

    1. I never know how often they update those maps . What model do they use and when did they last update it?

      1. They update whenever necessary but at least every 6 hours and it’s not any specific model each time. In this case they are leaning toward Euro. But it’s still a distinctive forecast, not just a model snowfall forecast.

  76. DT put out a snow map for the event but said it’s the only one he’s issuing.
    It’s not that much different than my initial #’s (except more expanded to the west). I think the western areas will be more variable due to snow from the dying parent low and being near the western edge of the snow envelope from the new low.

    1. I’m not going to say anything about the comments/replies on the site. You can check them out for yourself if you wish. 🙂

  77. Lots of variations on timing forecasts.
    One of my colleagues says “dusk to dawn”.
    I think the start of it is going to take place first well W & NW of Boston due to leftover snow from the parent low, then build in from the S no earlier than 3PM, with the areas meeting in the middle to envelop the maximum amount of real estate that will be covered by 7PM, then a diminishing from W to E during the remainder of the evening, with the last steady flakes offshore by midnight but lingering over the Cape several hours longer.
    Pete B. says 1PM for earliest start time, everywhere by 4PM.

      1. Gee keeping kids safe now equates to wimps. There were multiple accidents yesterday that involved parents picking up kids and buses….both buses had dropped off all kids. However, they do not drive themselves.

  80. Love what the 18z GFS giving me 6 inches where I am in CT. I know better and that won’t happen. I doubt its there on the 0z run later tonight but maybe it will surprise me.
    2-4 inch snow I will take just as long as I don’t get skunked and have nothing at all.

  82. Here is the tweet

    @BigJoeBastardi: Canadian/GFS has lead the way on this one! GFS a better model when it doesnt have to combine streams

  83. Yet the Euro was the first model to recognize blowing up the Saturday low soon enough to get SE New England. 🙂

      1. I don’t mind the 18z run. It supports the drying on the western envelope of the snow. I think that takes place.

  88. Higher snow totals will verify. The low undergoes rapid cyclogenesis once it reaches the atlantic ocean just in time to give eastern massachusetts significant snow.

    12-18 inches south shore, cape and islands
    6-12 inches from the south shore north to Boston and back to the 128 belt
    3-6 inches from 128 to Worcester
    lighter amounts north and west of there

      1. I think it’s very possible. Snowfall amounts will continue to creep up as new guidance continue to suggest a larger impact from this storm. This is the one to watch. This could prove to be the biggest storm of the season.

      2. This storm wasn’t supposed to amount to anything. However, models continue to trend wetter and now blizzard watches are up for portions of our eastern shoreline. That is significant!

  89. To Dave’s post above, I don’t think we r wimps, I tend to agree with hadi that no one wants to be sued, and in alotta cases afraid, it’s much different here than when I went, now they cancel school the day before for a 3.5 inch snow event, they never would cancel for something like that. I vividly remember seeing on the old weather channel seeing that we were going to be receiving a modest 4-6 inch snow event, and thinking looks like I’m going to school, and remember 10 inches being the mark for cancellations. I had no cancellations my senior yr, the previous I don’t remember 🙂

    2. Charlie I will have to disagree. I remember many days in my youth where school would be cancelled and we would head out in our cars and believe me if there had been 10 inches my mom would have never let me in a friends car. My kids had many days off that ended up being questionable – and more that were not There was never a inch limit. Timing determined it. I know this because my mom was very involved in the school system. The only difference I can see is that school is no longer called in the morning ….last minute. First time I can remember that happening was with a big storm in December 1992. Other than blizzard of 78 which stands on its own. One big difference which has been pointed out here is that there are far more families with two parents who work.

      1. The problem with this is each particular schools were different as it is today, I’m going by KP High school, my sister, and my sil are teachers there, and they’ve even told me snow days r up at KP the last 10 yrs , again though I believe each school is different, I believe they said they r having a big meetings to halt snow days by home computers and teacher giving an assignment, have a good night Vicki 🙂

          1. It was not unusual for my kids to go to near July and to have discussions about taking April vacation away. I’m not going by one town. There are multiple towns in my area that cancel as a unit rather than a single entity. Based of course in the logic that schools in an area receive fairly similar amounts. Same for area where I grew up. Either way I see only a few days cancelled that probably could not have been. Not sure where anyone is seeing something different

  91. Only takes a shift of about 20 miles east or west to make a big difference in snow totals.
    Latest GFS going with the further west solution now showing at least 6 inches for most of SNE. Waiting to see the 0z run and see if it sings the same tune.

  92. I don’t view this as a sneaky storm.
    It’s a great example of why we don’t take the models literally just a couple days out. It showed this system as minor low, passing straight east with minor snowfall tonight into Saturday, when it fact it’s going to be some kind of explosive low pressure area making its closest pass Saturday night with substantial snow threat for much of southeastern New England. And just because these models seem somewhat locked in on a solution does not make that solution inevitable.

  93. Unlike the last storm, which deepened 25mb in 24 hrs, this next one on the 0z NAM drops 28mb in …… ONLY 12 hrs (frame 17hr to frame 29hr).

    That would be an AMAZING fall over a short period of time. No wonder the south shore wind gusts are up to 50 mph and the Cape is 60 mph.

        1. Oh YES :). If I understand things correctly, its supposed to be in the mid 30s, mix rain and snow until late afternoon. We’ll be down there by early afternoon. The show down there should be late evening to midnight.

          Shovel already packed in the trunk. 🙂 🙂

          1. And you can relax and enjoy it. I don’t know if mrs tom and the young tom-ettes appreciate that but I love being away and having nothing to focus on but a storm. Have a perfect time

    1. I certainly hope that NAM run is wrong ……. because thats 12+ inches of snow with wind gusts to 50-60 mph.

      That describes to a tee NEMO last year and that was a widespread multi-day power outage event in SE New England.

  98. Wow, at hr 32 on the NAM, about 50-100 miles offshore, there’s a wide coverage of ocean with 70 mph wind gust potential and even a small contour of 80 mph gusts.

    Amazing how close those isobars are bunched together. This storm is going to have a bigger wind impact near the coast than this past storm.

  108. There will still be much model divergence even the hours leading up to precip onset. Such a high stakes storm.

  110. Kevin Lemanowicz on FOX 25 has now “upped” his snowfall totals for Boston to the Cape from 5-10″ to 6-12″ LOL. 😀

  113. Every time I close my eyes at night I see myself shoveling snow. And when I wake up I feel it 😉 Deja vu?

    Hope everyone stays safe in terms of driving (when it snows and after). I have had some close calls myself.

  119. GFS close to the NAM and SREF for me showing around 4 inches of snow. This is storm that got to be watched as it evolves for any slight shifts which will make a big difference.

    1. NWS has enlarged the Winter Storm Warning area and upgraded the coastal areas that were under Blizzard Watch to Warning.

    1. Yeah, no joke right. The 6z GFS has the pressure 8mb lower at the BM, than the 00z run. Now we just need the precip. field to fan out just a tad more.

      That image Tom shows that classic S curve of a budding biggie.

  123. Snow amounts:
    Outer Cape maybe 3-6″ , some mixing with rain?
    South shore to Canal, jackpot area, 10+”
    Boston out to 128, 6-10″ sort of; can’t say Boston won’t get a foot
    128 out to Worcester, 3-6″

    I feel like if the track just sneezes, amounts will change all over the place.

  124. Pete B: Thinks we all might see rain initially.

    8-12″ Outer Cape and south shore
    12-16″ right at the Canal, a very narrow geographical band
    4-8″ Boston out to 495

  125. Pete’s mad if he think rain is involved here. Euro has close to an inch qpf for Boston and 1.25 south. Close to a foot in Boston and more south shore.

    1. Sometimes I think it is the way that Pete communicates. I think he is an OK forecaster, but not the best communicator.

  129. Channel 5:

    6-10″ on Outer Cape, rain first
    8-12″ South shore to Cape
    6-10″ Boston to 495
    3-6″ outside 495

  130. Good Morning Everyone!
    Got to watch this movement carefully today with any slight shifts to the east or west is going to make a big difference with snowfall amounts. Two storm systems undergoing bombogensis in the same week and just days apart is impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised with a rapidly intensyfing low pressure system if someone in eastern New England gets thundersnow.

    1. Hadi, I’m driving back from central Vermont this morning. Will I encounter snow on my way back? I want to get to Boston by 11am, so I’m not in any accumulating snow on the highway.

        1. Thanks. Appreciate it. My VW Golf has been kind to me, but not in the snow. Luckily it’s a manual so I have control over the vehicle.

  133. Pete B is wrong about rain mixing in, at least in the Boston area. This looks to be an all snow event. As a child, I loved calling the weather number and hearing the words “winter storm warning in effect.” I think we’ve heard it a lot this winter, thus far.

    Also, Pete B is wrong, I believe, about 60 next weekend. If anything, the advertised warm-up will be slightly shorter than initially thought and only in the 40s with lots of clouds and some rain (uggh, uggh – who wants that!). Even I LOVE a spring day – 55-60 and sunny, but we ain’t going to get that. Just mid 40s and showery. As a vigorous cold front moves in, Monday the 24th of February could give us another heavy, wet snow-storm. OS had pointed this one out about a week ago.

  134. Down to 1001 mb…..and in central NC. The hourly pressure falls are going to be crazy with this one. For those that have to work later today/tonight safe travels.

  135. That is going to be the thing to watch today how the pressure falls along with how the storm system is tracking and seeing if there are any shifts.
    A quick but intense storm system.

  136. Morning,

    SNOWBOMB on the way! Looks Ominous out there already!!!

    Here’s an image of the Euro with qpf as of 1AM tomorrow:

    http://i.imgur.com/ReGkyU1.jpg?1

    Very tight snow gradients with all models.

    Disappointed in especially GFS totals.

    Hadi, do you have the Euro snow map yet? Tx

    1. Interesting from NWS:

      IN ADDITION THERE IS -EPV
      ABOVE THIS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH WILL YIELD A GREATERRESPONSE TO THIS FORCING WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER SNOW AND MAX SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3″ PER HOUR AT TIMES.

      What on earth is -EPV?????

      1. Equivalent Potential Vorticity. I have never heard that one before. Its sound like CAPE values we look at to see
        how strong thunderstorms have the potential to be.

  144. I wouldn’t be surprised with those wind gusts if there are some scattered power outages across the region.
    Going to be looking for any wobbles east or west in the track of this storm system.

  145. RE: BLIZZARD WARING

    Here are some wind maps:

    NAM

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021506&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=022

    GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021506&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=021

    FIM

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014021418/236/wind_10m_f030.png

    So how/why is NOT Boston included in Blizzard warning??? I don’t get it.

    I know we had an explanation before, but according to these charts, we get
    the same winds. ?????

  147. I think snow is going to break out across the area way ahead of the main
    storm system with over running. I think we can see the start of that on radar:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    1. That’s associated with the parent low, not the secondary that will form offshore. May bring some minor accumulation N & W of Boston.

  148. Old Salty it will be crazy up there for you and everyone else in eastern new england. Its a progressive storm system but with that said this thing looks to produce some impressive storm totals.

    1. up to 3 inches per hour with thunder snow and wind gusts to 50 mph.
      I’d say so. Waiting on the 12Z NAM.

      Need to head out a little later.

      😀 😀 😀

    1. TK what are you thinking for our area in terms of amounts and timelines? Guessing this isn’t one of those “hanging around” storms? Thanks!

      1. It’s a very progressive system and is probably being slightly over-forecast by models (but not by too much).

        5 or 6 in Woburn and it’s going to depend on how long heavy snow can get in here and stay in here. This may be a situation where 2-3 inch per hour snowfall bands set up literally right on the coast and can’t seem to penetrate W. I think the storm circulation may be a little tighter than your average.

          1. You the man, thanks. While I prefer none – if you are right – I can handle that amount. Hoping it’s not heavy. My snowblower couldn’t move it last time.

  152. I’m supposed to work a half shift in Newton tonight from 4-8:30pm. Who among you wants to write my district manager a note to get out of work? 🙂

    2. O.S. will. No manager can would dare over-ride an excuse note signed by somebody who calls themself “Old Salty”. 🙂

  153. What is the timing to start out this way? SIL is planning to shovel the roof we are worries about and that takes at least 3-4 hours. Thank you !

    1. Don’t think so. Looking a simmed radar reflectivity from the latest
      RAP runs, it starts in earnest in Boston around 2PM and goes to about 11PM.

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021511&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=008

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021511&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=009

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014021511&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=017

      You may have trouble getting home.

      Best of luck.

    1. Interesting app, Vicki.
      An accurate short-term weather predictor. I like the honest write up describing the app. What it is, and what it isn’t! – short-term/doesn’t provide a daily forecast !

  156. I’m sure it’s in here somewhere–but what kind of snow is this–heavy and wet, light and fluffy or somewhere in between? Got to plan my day accordingly….

  158. I’ll try to chime in from the Cape, dependent on internet strength.

    I’m thinking some rain down there until 6-8pm, then the snow kicks in. I’ve had the chance to experience a heavy snowstorm on the Cape and its wild afterward to see the houses, trees and just about anything PLASTERED in white.

    Anyhow, thinking 6-9 inches of very heavy, wet snow down there and hope the resort has generators. 🙂 🙂

    Stay safe and enjoy the storm !!

    2. Tom, I know you were looking forward to a get-a-way from the cold and snow, but there’s nothing like the experience of a ocean-view storm!!! Be Safe and Enjoy 🙂

  160. Thanks Old Salty. Lightning strikes starting and no doubt there will be more lightning strikes over the water. I am keeping an eye now the low is forming is there any shift to the west that will push the higher snowfall amounts further to the east as the thing tracks up the coast.

  164. Still uncomfortable with the coastal redevelopment being that much off the coast. It will really need to stick to a NNE movement.

      1. Pretty close, for sure. “Perhaps” a tad outside?
        Very difficult to tell from this image.

        You also need to know where it was to see IF it passed over it.
        Benchmark is 40,70.

    2. Given the tightness of the wrap-up and core of heaviest precipitation, that low may be a bit further out than you want to see it…

  167. And now for a break in the weather!

    If you are a hockey fan, go to this online broadcast of the Slovakia / Slovenia Olympic men’s hockey game today. Once it loads up and you get by the advertisement, skip to 1 hour and 47 minutes on the timeline and watch the next 3 minutes (until about 1 hour 50 minutes).

    http://stream.nbcolympics.com/hockey/winter/14998/

    1. Yikes, Chara getting caught sleeping. Love the guy, awesome for the B’s, but his game gets somewhat exposed in this format. The game is so much faster than the NHL. He’s so big it takes him a while to get going.

  171. The NAM seems a little slow this morning?
    Does it have indigestion or something?

    Maybe it just wants to snow so hard it’s having an aneurysm?

  172. The Russia / Switzerland women’s game is just as entertaining as the USA / Russia men’s game. I have 1 to my left, 1 to my right in the media room. 🙂

  174. With the 2 bombs keeping us all intensely focused on them lately, some good news being that its Feb 15th already

    Length off day at Logan : 10 hrs, 36 minutes …… Gaining more than 2 min, 40 sec per day.

    Max sun angle hits 35 degrees above horizon. I think we’ll all notice the blinding light Sunday and Monday with the sun reflecting off of the snow cover.

    55 and 1/2 days past the winter solstice, 33 and 1/2 days to the vernal equinox.

    These may be hay maker punches from winter, but no matter how you view it, deep winter is on its last legs. This last statement from me will doom us to snow and cold into April. 🙂 🙂

    1. Spring is not far away :), there will be 14 trucks applying lime on Starting march 3rd, that’s when spring starts 🙂

  175. From Twitter:

    “@NWSBoston: HEADS UP! 12z models will be delayed due to major circuit/internet issues at HQ. Problem could take 2-3 hrs to fix. Will keep you updated!”

  176. Sun poking through in Woburn…won’t last I know but I’ll take it. Temp on my outside thermometer is 34 now.

    1. Its mild … and Pete B. may be right on starting as a bit of rain, especially if this very light stuff makes it in here before mid afternoon. Its a relatively mild morning out there.

      2. It looks like Quick pushed the net off himself – on purpose or by accident? Up for debate. Well that’s one way to possibly save a game. 🙂

  179. Boy, looking at the radar, u would think it starts out as rain everywhere in eastern MA. Temps are very borderline. NAM hinted at this as the storm approached. Showed the 2m temps creeping up above freezing until the real stuff came in. I’m currently at 34 in Sharon, 25 dp and a weak ESE wind

  190. I went down to my mom’s to watch the end of the game with her. My brother was visiting too. Mom gets so nervous about the game. 😉

  191. Went back and watched part of the replay of that game. With about 4:50 left in the 3rd period, Quick was sliding to the right and out of the net and the shot went off the post, when he got back to the net he slid into the left post and nudged it with both body and arm, taking it off the mooring. Nobody caught that he did it on purpose. And it wasn’t seen until they went to the replay to check on the potential high stick. He got away with it. 🙂

    2. Well, not sure how they’d get a foot of snow or 2 inches of rain before the event actually takes place. 😉

  193. Heading out to the movies with the family and then something to eat, and then radar watch starting around 4pm 🙂

  195. I watch all the national news, and Fox News has had this thing with saying the east coast hasn’t seen a winter like this for quite sometime, and said could this be cycles? Now is Fox News bringing politics into there weather? If that’s the case I’ve lost a lot of respect for them

    1. Both Fox and CNN bring politics into everything they do, IMO. I just want facts. Yes parts of the country haven’t seen a winter this harsh in some time, but nothing bizarre is going on. It’s the Earth doing what it always does – trying to balance itself out – given the conditions that it is given to deal with.

      Physics is a funny thing, isn’t it? 😀

  199. That sharp drop off is very scary bc a fluctuation of just 20 miles is the difference between a town like Sharon receiving 8-10 inches to just 10-15 west in Franklin or Milford receiving less than 3 inches, wow!!

    1. Just went out and salted some icy patches on the driveway…may have to break them up if they don’t melt quickly enough…snowing lightly here now

  211. Softly falling flakes in Brookline. Still praying I get called out of work so I can just sit and enjoy the storm!

  212. Governor to address the media at 2PM from MEMA HQ… the over/under on pieces of equipment to fight the storm is set at 2,000 by Las Vegas.

  216. Snowing here where I am. My county now under a winter weather advisory. Hopefully the 4 inches the GFS run showed will happen.

  217. Snow picking up a little bit in Brookline. I’m surprised that it’s already sticking to trees and cars here. It was 34 degrees most of the morning and into the early afternoon, now it’s fallen to 32.

    Oh, and since I know you were all holding your breath, I successfully got out of my work shift. 😉

    2. Yay…..doesn’t it make it even more enjoyable to just sit and enjoy the storm now. And the DM was a bit hesitant but OS made it clear – politely – that we were not offering an option 🙂

  218. Gov. Patrick wants everyone off the roads between 5 pm – 5am tomorrow!

    Is it a suggestion or an order like last year?? Not that it matters to me, I am certainly staying inside but I do have to go to work tomorrow morning…UGH!

    2. That’s crazy, cause we are going out to eat at 6pm with 2 couples, and I just talked to them and we r on, granted its 2 miles away but were going, I’d say its a suggestion 🙂

  219. Continuing to snow here, about a quarter of an inch, tk I’m continuing to see on a lot of models a warmer pattern next week, particularly after Tuesday, some models have 45-50 degrees from Wed through the weekend. And it’s been super consistent for days, any new thoughts tk?

  221. Snow falling lightly but steadily here in Dorchester but not sticking to rooftops or even side streets as of yet. I suspect in the next hour or even less THAT will certainly change.

  222. Philip I got the same thing where I am where the snow is coming down at a good clip but roadways just wet. Its right around the freezing mark here. I can’t wait to see the snow depth across SNE after this storm.

  223. In Dedham. Vis still about 1/2 mile, but looking closely
    There appears to be some fog. SO EVEN THOUGH vis
    Is -1/2 mile, snow not quite moderate. But
    Close

    Btw. Radio zlx said 4-8 for bodton????????

    1. OS…take most radio station wx forecasts with a grain of salt. I could go on for hours about they re-interpret things (weather, news and sports). Knowing alot of people in business and they agree that it has an can be a problem. That compounded by the fact that so many stations have voice tracking and stuff is recorded earlier (except for time checks, etc)…well you get the drift.

  225. Just got home from patriot place (absolute zoo bleep show there), showing harder now, wouldnt call it heavy though but temps dropping and snow starting to coat everything including the roads

    1. Patriot place is always crazy, wait till spring and summer, there building housing now and all kinds of new stuff, that place is awesome, have u done the lux level yet am?

    1. I think its cuz this storm came out of nowhere. Not enough time for city officials to do a proper analysis. The forecast for boston IMO is 50/50 between a foot of snow and 3 inches. I just dont think its being taken seriously.

  227. Tk just trying to get an idea when the last flakes will fall, judging by me looking at models, it’s all done between 11pm-midnight? Any input would be greatly appreciated, thank you!!

      1. Yikes, so for some of these snowfall forecasts to verify, it will need to snow on average an inch an hour from now till midnight. Gonna be tough. I guess thats my answer to why they’re discounting the NAM, lol

      1. That snowmap has a decent shot of coming very close, IMO. Rapid drop off to the west, BIG STUFF southeast of the city.

  229. This thing looks awesome on visible satellite! As Hadi pointed out, its developing a well defined eye. Looking for subtle movements of the center. Moving more ENE than id like but plenty of convection firing up into the atlantic poised to crash in here

  232. There’s no eye on this low yet. There are a couple of tongues of dry air feeding into it. Center is not nearly deep enough to form a cold core eye at this stage of the game. Give it several hours. The ingredients are there…

    Convection is firing pretty far east – something Matt Noyes pointed out may happen to limit the impact on the western side of the low later tonight.

    1. There is going to be such a fine line between the big rates and not-so-big, along with the wind potential, that they can afford to be overly-cautious on this one.

  237. Started snowing here at 12:50PM at 35 degrees.

    Down to 32.7 now. Snow picked up in intensity with 1/2 hour.

    Just got home from errands. ALL secondary roads are totally snow covered
    and SLIPPERY. Primary roads are wet and getting slushy.

    Wind ever so sloooowly picking up. 😀

    We’re ready for the SHOW!!

    1. Well OS even if you don’t get into the heaviest band you got a front row seat, just look to the east and southeast tonight. 😉

    1. As you say:

      COASTAL MA AND VICINITY — ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD — WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR…WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
      THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT…AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE RATES.

  239. From NWS at 3:29PM today:

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY…

    * LOCATIONS…MOST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS OUTSIDE OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES.

  243. Snow starting to stick now and coming down moderate clip. Expecting 4 inches. Not bad for being on the western edge of this storm system. Maybe there will be a surprise.

    1. Me too, snowing good now and this isn’t the meat of it. Nice band over eastern Long Island. Almost looks like it has a small circulation.

    3. WHDH and Matt Noyes some of the reasons why i think people in boston arent taking this storm too seriously with the lack of snow emergencies/parking bans. Glad BZ is at least alerting people to take this seirously

    3. Yup. I find that MOST interesting.

      Is this a sign that the storm, although taking roughly the predicted path,
      Is EXPANDING with a MUCH LARGER circulation than predicted?

      It has to mean something????????????

  250. I just helped a post office guy get unstuck, I feel so bad for him, he says he’s got 2 hrs left of mail to do.

  252. Vis down recently but i think that’s due to some fog forming. No change in snow intensity. About an inch now.

  253. Tk do u think our area woburn- reading will get Into the heavy bands? Maybe not 3 inches per hour but maybe 1 to 2 inches per hour? Or will we miss them

    1. Right on the edge. I would say 1-2 for a couple hours at maximum. Still think the 3+ per hour stays to the east of this region.

  254. The guy at honey dew yelled out to me and said another 78 blizzard? He said it reminds him of it, he has to be 70 yrs old, he then went on to tell me every time he looked at the weather it’s getting raised while the storms in progress, like back then, I thought it was interesting

    1. Again we can’t even get stuff done out here, the traffic is crazy bumper to bumper in a lot of places on rt 1

      2. Other than no 1055mb high in Quebec. 😀

        Though this low pressure area will end up stronger than the blizzard was.

        It was the contrast that made that storm what it was.

    1. It’s driving me CRAZY! The roads are going to be a damn mess. And if they don’t call it soon, no one will have a chance to move their car without shoveling it out first.

  258. What a mess folks, there r parts of roads that can’t be plowed or salted due to many cars stuck, good grief

  263. Snow intensity inland is dropping off – per radar obs. You can see this thing setting up to be a rapid buildup from not much in central MA to LOOK OUT from the immediate coast through SE MA.

    1. I’m going to have to say IMO this is by far the worst I’ve seen it this year, 95 is white with numerous cars in the breakdown lane, not sure how they r going to plow

  271. Heaviest snow right now over the cape and up into plymouth and bristol counties. Hasnt made it much more north of that line yet.

  274. From NWS:

    HOWEVER…THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME OF WHICH WILL BE VERY WET ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST…WILL COMBINE WITH THE DAMAGING
    WINDS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN A LOT OF DOWNED TREES
    AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. TRAVEL ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE…AS DOWNED TREES MAY BLOCK ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION…SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TIME WILL MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE FOR PLOWS TO KEEP UP. TRAVEL WILL
    BECOME ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE AND DANGEROUS.

  277. If Logan were to reach its maximum potential on snowfall amounts (10-14″) it would exceed all of what fell all of last winter (63.4″).

    This would be Logan’s total for the season SO FAR with still a month to go = 63.5″

    WOW!

  281. Earlier OS posted about WZLX with their 4-8 inch forecast. Just a minute ago WSRS (Worcester are) is calling for snow showers this afternoon and tonight with 1 to 3 inches. As I said…take anything they say with a grain of salt.

  284. Southeastern mass will get hammered for sure!! I don’t know about the rest of eastern mass. Looking at the radar, those snowbands keep drying up as they get to
    or little north of boston. Ughhh we are going to miss the heavy stuff!! I wish I could see thundersnow

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