Saturday Night Special

222 Comments

5:15PM original

7:00PM update for snow amounts

Low pressure explodes south to southeast of New England tonight and tracks rapidly northeastward, passing southeast of Cape Cod, then away by early Sunday. This storm will be most  notable for its rapid snow accumulation along the coast especially over southeastern MA, and strong winds with blizzard conditions along the Massachusetts East Coast. But keep in mind the worst of this will be confined to these areas, with much less impact elsewhere. There will be a steady and eventually rapid drop-off of snow amounts the further northwest you go, as well as less wind, though still becoming rather strong and gusty.

Peak time: Through midnight. Tapers off west to east shortly after midnight.

Snow accumulation: 8-15+ inches over most of southeastern MA to the mid Cape, dropping off to 6-10 inches outer Cape and Islands due to mixing with rain early part of storm (will change to snow here soon if it has not already), 4-8 inches much of the southern I-95 belt and southern I-495 belt, 2-4 inches western reaches of the I-495 belt northeastward through interior northeastern MA and southern NH, with rapid drop off to 2 inches or less as you progress through Worcester County and southwestern NH.

Wind: NE to N 15-30 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH coast, gusts around 40 MPH inland and 50 MPH coastal areas except possibly as high as 60 MPH Cape Cod.

Coastal flooding: Minor to moderate flooding north-facing shores around high tide times.

Power outages: Scattered outages likely in the areas with heaviest snow and strongest winds, with isolated outages possible elsewhere..

A quick look at the weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend: cold and dry.

Next week: Unsettled, snow potential Tuesday, other precipitation threats mid to late week. Will look more at this tomorrow.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Snowstorm (see details above) peaking through midnight, ending west to east overnight. Temperatures drop into the 20s. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH inland, 25-45 MPH coast, gusts around 40 MPH inland and 50 MPH coastal areas except possibly as high as 60 MPH Cape Cod.

SUNDAY: Clouds lingering Cape Cod early otherwise sunshine. Highs from the upper 20s interior hills to middle 30s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the lower 10s inland to lower 20s coastline. Wind light NW.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow except mix South Coast. Lows 10-18. Highs 30-38.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Highs 32-40.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain except rain/ice inland. Lows 24-32. Highs 32-40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-31. Highs 40-48.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-33.  Highs 40-48.

222 thoughts on “Saturday Night Special”

  2. Hey–I’m first. Thank you TK–I may not post regularly, but I do read regularly. Snowing in Milton–looks like an inch; an unofficial measure.

  5. Thanks TK…..second ….always a bridesmaid never a bride…. 🙂

    Didnt see if u answered re winds in this area? Still quite calm. Guessing we may have an inch

  6. I’ve helped 14 cars, a post office van, and a state trooper, crazy crazy beginning to this storm, the worst was a lady crying cause she was stuck, killed me , off for dinner, talk to u all later 🙂

  8. AS we eluded to earlier

    AS THE MID LEVEL CENTERS RAPIDLY CLOSE OFF AN AREA OF EXTREMELY
    STRONG DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP. THE 700 MB CLOSED
    LOW SHOWS A CLASSIC BACK BENT WARM FRONT…WHICH ARE KNOWN TO
    PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THAT
    BOUNDARY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE DOES THIS MID LEVEL
    DEFORMATION ZONE SETUP? THE NAM/RGEM CONFINE IT TO
    MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR…WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
    BRING IT INTO CENTRAL MA AND EASTERN CT FOR A TIME. ITS A REALLY
    TRICKY SITUATION…AS THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SHARP DECREASE IN
    SNOWFALL TO THE WEST OF THIS DEFORMATION REGION. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
    IMAGERY THOUGH…WERE GOING WITH THE MORE WESTERN AND AGGRESSIVE
    SOLUTIONS. MODERATE SNOW IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL MA
    AND EASTERN CT. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW TO THE
    EAST OF A WILLIMANTIC…TO WORCESTER…TO FITCHBURG LINE. LATER
    SHIFTS MAY CERTAINLY HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
    RADAR/MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS BUT FEEL THINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE

  9. I noticed on the radar that there is a pivit. It seems like snow is moving from southeast to northwest in eastern mass but if u look on long island its moving WSW TO ENE. Isn’t that bad? Because now this thing might shift east quicker!

  10. Snow intensity in Sharon just came to a screeching hault. Bands decreasing in intensity that were once making their way into worcester county. 2.5″ so far

    1. Yeah, this thing looks like it’s going to dry right up out here in Worcester area. Looking like an easier snow removal day tomorrow morning.

  12. About 2pm …. Some light rain.

    Intensity of precip picked up around 4 pm and turned to snow.

    Moderate to heavy wet snow now, about 2 inches, getting windy.

    Happy to see no power lines, so perhaps they have underground lines at this place.

  14. I said where is the umph last Thursday and then the proverbial umph hit the fan and we had comfortably 3 inches an hour for a couple of hours. Patience is a virtue……and after nearly 65 years you’d think I’d know that

  15. Radar not looking impressive at all for Boston area and North Shore. NWS already skimmed back on the North Shore. We shall see what happens.

  18. The trees down here are getting plastered. Its snowing at that 33F mark. Its fairly early in the snow accumulations. Cant imagine this area gets away unscathed without significant power outages and maybe a lot of downed trees. The snow is pouring down here in the Orleans area.

  20. Sad, but true.

    Just took a measurement here in JP.

    2.5 inches is all.

    That is 5 hours of steady snow. Obviously visibility was not commensurate
    with snowfall rates. It was the damn fog fooling us.

    I hope this doesn’t bust out on us. Stronger echos “look” like they want
    to move into the City. We shall see.

    2. Problem this afternoon was the surface temp. It did snow at a nice clip (not tremendous) mid afternoon but virtually nothing was sticking, at least not on roadways, sidewalks. We sort of `lost’ several hours of moderate snow due to above freezing temps at the surface.

      1. It took about 2 and half hours before it started sticking to the roads where I am in CT. It is snowing now a pretty
        good clip. I don’t think we get the four inches there predicting but will get some accumulation being on the western
        fringe of this storm system.

  22. From NWS Upton, NY

    SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EVOLUTION OF POWERFUL TROUGH PIVOTING NORTHEAST. INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NOTED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE 40/70 BENCHMARK…WITH GOOD MODEL SUPPORT FOR AN INTENSE LOW TRACKING OVER THIS BENCHMARK THIS EVENING.

  23. I’ve liked Matt’s #’s on this one. But I do think Boston Metro does get in on the heaviest envelope for a while.

    2. TK, good you’re back.

      So what so you make of this lull in the intensity when we are now supposed to be into the meat?

      Thanks

  24. It’s 6:49 PM. Well into our “Heaviest” snow period. NOT!

    I don’t like this at all.

    It is simply NOT snowing very hard here at all. It just isn’t. Hard to tell at night
    from where I sit, but I’d say vis about 1 mile or so and that is all.

    This is BRUTAL!!!!!

    Where’s the BEEF???

    Instead of Bombogenesis, it’s BUSTOGENESIS!!

    Yeah sure, be patient. I don’t like the looks of this.
    It smells like a Bust.

    Hope not, sure doesn’t look right.

    1. The light snowfall is odd, especially since the storm is supposedly a powerful one and we’re AT THE COAST! You’d think the heavier bands could reach us! Perhaps not.

      1. I’m curious what its doing down in Sue’s neck of the woods in Plymouth. Supposedly radar showing heavy snow there for hours.

  25. If there was any slight shift in the track east or west it was going to make a big difference with snowfall amounts. We might be seeing that slight shift in the bad direction if your a snowlover to the east.

  27. Is it possible as the low intensifies it draws its precip shield closer to the center? Is that whats going on right now?

    1. Beats me. You’d think the precip would expand as it intensifies.

      I did see on one model (CMC) that the precip lightened up and then
      as the low intensified and turned the corner it threw snow back in on us
      for a period. Enough to reach forecasted totals. Don’t think so.

        1. Yes, you can crown it for Worcester area, but NOT
          Boston Proper. NAM may have had the right idea, but
          missed by 25 miles or so. 😀 😀

      2. Not so much the amounts the NAM was giving (usually overdone anyways), but the very narrow area of heavier snow it had been showing since it first picked up on this storm. Other models had wider areas of precip.

  31. This was such a low confidence forecast to me even today the day of the event. This one had to be watched carefully for slight shifts in track and I think were seeing that here where this low is tracking a little bit further east than once thought.

    Snow coming down good where I am. Already looking at the next snow threat before the warm up. It looks like a couple inches possible with that one.

  32. Well, no parking ban in Boston may have turned out to be the `right’ decision. Who knew that Marty was a met. I don’t think I’ve heard a plow actually plow, and they may not be needed after all – to plow, that is. I just hear a lot of water on the roads. We’ll see.

      1. Wow! Now I am on Beacon Street, but I have not seen a plow actually plow at all. I don’t know about side streets where snow accumulates better than major roads. Storrow Drive is just wet, and Beacon is more or less just wet, too. No problems with traffic, whatsoever.

        1. Matt noyes got kudos for a map that had less accumulation than Pete who got laughs. TK had less than Pete. Not sure what the thing is with Pete but as long as folks make fun, I will react. I’d do the same if it were you or anyone else I respect. If supporting someone is rubbing it in, then I’m guilty.

          1. You misunderstand. I know you support Pete.
            I have nothing against Pete at all, it’s just that
            I don’t care for his forecasting. He was correct, so you have every right to a told you so. No problems at all. And for that, I deserve it. 😀 😀

            1. But no one remembers when he gets more right than not. And on here it will always bother me that any met gets criticized. I’ve said a million times that their forecasting is not dictated by them but by the network and I figure here of all places we should know it. Sorry. It bothers me and always will. I have a loyalty thing that I’m too old to change 🙂

  33. I wouldn’t give up in boston yet guys. I’m whining about the interior.

    I think TK is going to be dead on with 3″ in Worc.

  34. I have edited the blog basically to take snow amounts back to where I originally had them. So erase the up-tweak. 😉

    The storm is, in fact, going to behave as I thought, regarding the less snow N & W.

    1. Hadi, I may be the biggest pessimist on the planet, but I see this as a COLLOSAL
      BUST for Boston.

      I just don’t like the tease. I’d sooner be told all along that it would be 2-4 or 3-6 inches. As early as a couple of hours ago, NWS UPPED their totals for Boston
      to 10-14 inches. NOW WHAT????????

      For all of the modern technology, we’re still in the DARK AGES meteorologically speaking.

      2. To be honest I thought they were OTL with the 10-14. I bit the bait a little and uptweaked myself and then by the time I drove to Friendlys to pick up dinner and get ice cream for dessert and got back home, I had to back-track. 🙂

        1. TK being flexible is a positive…..never a negative. You and everyone always said the track on this was very iffy. The public knew it as well. I heard it on every major station as well as here

  36. 3.5″ so far, gotten about 0.5″ in the last hour which is consistent with the rates ive seen since it began around 1. Not the rates i expected but ill take it. Intensity picking up but still in the moderate area

  38. Based upon latest radar trends, snowfall projections must come down. The heavy band that is bounding extreme SE MA and the Cape will NOT pivot any further north and west. Look for light to moderate snow Boston west and just to the south west. Moderate to heavy snow south of Boston and heavy snow from plymouth south and east. Looks like Boston tops off around 6 with more to the south. However, this storm is busting a bit.

  40. These storms do not always expand as they explode. Sometimes when you have rapid development and explosive deepening, you induce downward motion around the storm, especially on the cold side, and create subsidence, which shrinks the precipitation shield. This is what my forecast of lighter snow amounts away from the coast especially W & N of Boston was based upon.

    That said, there should be enough of a pivot to get some of the heavy bands just about to the coast and perhaps slightly inland around Boston and maybe touching part of the North Shore, but we’ll have to watch the radar and observations to see.

    I do think this thing is done by midnight (except where SE MA sticks out, especially Cape Cod), where it will take longer.

  41. The heavier Bands are STUCK “just” South of the line of Norfolk County with
    Plymouth and Bristol Counties. Just will NOT move across that line into Norfolk
    County, let alone into Suffolk. It AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN. All of the wishful thinking
    in the World isn’t going to change that.

    We’re cooked. Boston will come in at 4-6 inches, TOPS if that even.

  42. This is exactly what I was worried about. This storm is like the one we had couple weeks ago where the snowbands won’t make any progress north. If u zoom out on yhe radar you can see how the snow is piviting ( however you spell it lol) around southeadtern mass. I think this is the peakes snow for us in the northshoree ughhh.
    Sooo tuesday anyone??

  43. Don’t mind at all. My Saturday night plans to hang out on the hill over by WeatherWiz’s house and watch a DVR delayed version of the Prime Time Olympics show remain a go. 😉

    WW, I’ll wave to you as I drive up the hill, which will probably just be wet, rather than snowcovered. 🙂

        1. Yes, I can see that. I guess we can officially STICK A FORK IN IT!!! 😀 😀 😀

          You said it would be a battle and the progressive nature]
          of the atmosphere might sweep it out.

          I never did like the winds at 200MB. Not enough
          cyclonic curvature to suck that system closer to the coast.
          As much as the 500MB trough negatively tilted, you
          warned about winds above pushing it along so it
          might NOT do it’s thing.

          You were 100% correct. Great call.

          BTW, is this what Pete and Matt Noyes were concerned about?

          thanks

          1. You just got a standing O in this house. It’s what I admire most about you….close to your weather expertise of course. Now to explain to Mac why I randomly stood up and clapped 🙂

  47. Im wondering if this is a similar situation to a few weeks back in this setup where the snow further south was wet and reflected the snowflakes better thus making it appear as though the echos are stronger on radar. The snow further north is dryer and fluffier.

    1. It is somewhat similar, but not exactly. Result will be similar. This idea was batted around in comments the other day.

    2. I understand, but not the case. Lighter echos are confirmed by visual confirmation and actual snowfall rates.

  48. On the bright side: Two days ago, most expected very little from this storm. Ultimately, it was a bit of a surprise that we even got a storm out of this weak clipper system that redeveloped for us. It is strange that the reach of this storm is so limited. Oh well. Tuesday may provide some more snow, though that will melt very fast given the projected warm-up. I’m eyeing Monday the 24th as a possible trouble-maker (mixed bag for some, but heavy snow for others). Furthermore, as we close out the month and head into early March we’ll likely see more or less normal temps, even some below normal days, with concomitant snow chances.

    1. Yup, even the BANDS there were solidly there are NOW SHRINKING towards
      the SE. I don’t even think in SE NE the totals will verify.

  51. I just wonder if the way this thing just appeared out of nowhere contributed to the semi-busted forecast. If this were on the horizon for 5+ days there would have been more time for analysis and dispute and discussion until we were all blue in the face. Might have led to a more conservative approach. The models said jump and we said how high.

  53. No complaints on the storm.. just enough snow to freshen up the dirt on the side of the road, back to a postcard New England for a day tomorrow.

    Almost time to watch the Men’s US Hockey replay on primetime coverage…. where the goalie is Quick-er than the referee’s eyes. I wish I could read the Russian papers tomorrow.

  59. Just outside walking the dog…hardly a breeze and really quite nice. Will probably go out and shovel around 10 or so…

  61. 0-2 outside of 495 interior northern mass.
    2-4 128-495 south of pike
    4-8 inside i95
    8+southeast mass with with jack pot areas being plymouth county down to canal.
    national weather service still has me under 4-8 inches that is not gonna happen.

  63. Approaching 5 inches of pasty, heavy wet snow. Plows just came through the complex. A few tree limbs are beginning to sag. Winds not too bad yet.

    Been moderate snow with occasional heavy bursts since about 4pm. When we arrived around noon, we briefly saw ground, as I’d say there was less than 50% snowcover.

  65. Wow Tom, i would have thought u would have more down there with the way the radar has looked past few hours. Lower ratios down there

    1. Very low ratios …. Its 33F. Perhaps 7 or 8 : 1.

      I hope the temp drops some because the tree branches look like they are nearing their limit.

  66. Oh, I think it might verify from exit 3 on Rt. 3, which is about 10 miles NW of the Sagamore Bridge. Right now, they are under the darkest blues. I think Sandwich, Falmouth will end up close to a foot and due to a 1F or 2F higher temp further out on the Cape, there’ll be a lot of 8-10 inch amts.

  68. The telling thing is Nantucket has a N wind, Ptown has an 020 wind, its 010 at the Boston harbor buoy.

    In 12 yrs in Marshfield, I’m starting to think the magic wind direction for coastal heavy snow in Boston is 030 at the buoy, Ptown, etc ….

    That 010 wind direction is another clue to a track just slightly further SE then expected on a compact bomb.

  70. I Was just watching the TWC live report from jim cantrore at chaltham and they talked about how the storm missed the ” benchmark”. I am sure everyone knows that by now but yea. It seems like we can’t get a ” perfect storm” last storm too much west, this storm too much east, etc. I am still waiting for the big one!!

    1. My friend and her husband are at the Cape tonight and they met Jim Cantore. He was out doing a report as they were coming by. 🙂

    2. Same here north. Its more like last Thursday morning when it seemed to be moderate to almost heavy snow but nothing accumulated for at least 4 hours.

  73. No matter what, it’s a nice snowfall and no rain/mix involved, at least not here in Boston. The snow has fallen more heavily during the past hour or so than it did late this afternoon and early evening. Not impressive, but it’s definitely snowing and accumulating. Also, the advertised warm-up will be mitigated. I don’t think we’ll reach 50 during the `warm-up (could for one day, but that would do it). What we will be doing mostly is reverting to close to normal values for this time of year, from Tuesday through Sunday. Charlie, I doubt we’ll see much bare ground, especially given the lack of sunshine the coming week, though you could be right about some places. There will be lots of dirty snow. I’m hoping that all gets whitened the week of 24 February.

      1. Not expecting much. And it’ll be a slushy accumulation, which will turn to water later during the week.

        We had the ingredients for a good-sized storm tonight. Cold air behind it (which will NOT be the case Tuesday), developing storm off shore. But, it just didn’t happen. Low veered `off course.’ This said, it’s not completely over yet. It’s still snowing.

  74. Heading out to scrape the driveway then head across town. I’ll be checking in mobile a bit later. 🙂

  75. NWS seems to think the heaviest snow bands pivot back toward Boston by 10pm but i have my doubts there will be much left to pivot back

    1. They’re alluringly close. I agree with you, however. I will say this, the sheering away to our W/NW has slowed, and the band of snow from the coastline to, say, 10 miles inland, has continued. I expected this to completely dissipate by now, given the earlier radar images.

  76. Just went out to measure. May only be 2 inches but winds are up in mid to high teens and snow is blowing and snow or no snow, it has a wonderful winter feel.

  79. Eric Fischer: @ericfisher: And as I write that, we just lost power. All of this part of Plymouth just went dark.

    2. Per Nstar outage map, 1,6oo without in Sandwich …. About 15%

      its only get to get more widespread down here ….

      Getting blitzed with snow and winds slowly increasing.

  82. We have .5 since 9:15. If I had a chair on the deck that was not covered in snow, I’d be sitting outside. We have bunny prints in the snow too. Yes that was random 🙂

  85. We have 4.5 inches in na, not as much as I would have thought when it started, but looks like the back edge is in Worcester, snow is still falling but not at the intensity it was earlier

  87. Closing in on 5″ in Sharon and snowing heavier than it has all day. I think most areas Boston southward who havent been in on the heaviest snowbands that were way to the south and east will see some heavier snow for the next couple hours. Wind picking up too.

  89. From the canal eastward, they r gonna be snowing till 6am, I think where I’m at it will stop in the next hour, Boston probably right around midnight maybe just before

  90. I think many of us gave up on this storm 3 hours ago. It’s definitely coming down, and has been at a steady clip for several hours. I do hear plows now. It’s not a blockbuster, but also not a tiny storm. Vicki, you’re right about being patient.

  93. It’s been snowing between a quarter inch to half inch per hour the last 2 hrs around here, all the spots we have been 2 hrs ago have a little under an inch, yes I carry a yard stick with me lol 🙂

  95. What a bitter disappointment. A real bummer.

    Was out awhile ago to try to take a picture of a bird that landed
    on our Japanese Cherry tree. When I went out the flash accidentally came on
    and scared it away. I looked it up. It was a Northern Hawk Owl, normally found in Canada but has on rare occasions been seen in New England and this was one. Cool.

    While out there I stuck my hand in the snow. “ABout” 5 inches or so.

    BUSTORAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  101. I haven’t been out to measure yet but would guess we have about six inches. We lost power for about 20 minutes last night so we all went to bed at that point. Was very happy that it came back as quick as it did.

  104. Around 9 inches, power was out from 1am to a few moments ago. Cape has a lot of power outages, judging by the NSTAR outage map.

    Beautiful sunrise, hope to get out later to look around the area.

  106. Todd G on BZ for Tues:

    Cape & SE MA: coating to 1″
    Boston and burbs: 1-3″
    North of Boston: maybe 3+”

  107. I’m actually quite happy with how the storm verified, forecast-wise. Hope the hardest-hit no-power areas are back up and running soon!

    My 2 biggest forecast mistakes: Including Nantucket and Chatham in the 12-18 area first guess. Adjusting my numbers slightly upward late yesterday afternoon when if anything I should have left them alone for parts of the region and adjusted them slightly downward for most other areas.

    There are some instances where my more conservative approach would have busted badly, and usually when I see 2 “similar” storms result in 2 completely different outcomes, it becomes comparison time to find the key subtle differences that produced the 2 results. So instead of doing it myself, I’ll just wait for Matt Noyes to do it for all of us. 😉 just kidding 😀

  110. I guess this is exactly what happened. From Matt Noyes:

    Mass fields (meat & potatoes of the storm structure) are begging for a beast that goes just a bit too far offshore for big impact for New England, though accumulating snow, nonetheless. Vorticity field (atmospheric energy) goes farther east than you normally want to see for a real blockbuster – it’s a lobe of energy on the northwest side of the cyclone that gets job done, and while that can be effective to deliver at least plowable snow, it’s not enough, by itself, for a major regional storm. Typically, it’s pretty hard to send the primary energy center so far east and get a big event because thunderstorms initiate over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, southeast of New England. Thunderstorms over the Gulf Stream associated with east-leaning energy centers aid in lowering barometric pressure east, over the ocean, and this often will tug the storm east with it.

    1. I was looking at Runs of the HRRR Late yesterday afternoon and it kept lowering snow totals and progging the system farther East. I totally discounted it and went with other guidance. I will factor that in for the future. My Bad.

      1. That’s ok. I was trashing the HRRR and it’s performed nicely in the very short range, as it is expected to, for the last 2 systems. That’ll teach me! … Maybe 😉

      2. Nothing bad from you, OS. You provide us with lots of good information. Every system is unique. Many of the mets are saying that this system went too far east, which it did. But, we all recall what happened in early March last year with a storm whose center was 600 miles east of the coastline. One never knows. This system had VERY LITTLE western reach for a relatively powerful low. Even with the eastward swing, I would have expected more western reach. TK explained this phenomenon yesterday in one of his posts. Some storms just have small areas of precipitation.

  111. All in all, it was a nice snowfall. A surprise, given that we expected nothing as late as Thursday from this particular system. Too bad it did not turn out to be a larger storm. But, we’re well over 50 inches for the season. And, folks, don’t be fooled by a relatively brief and mitigated warm-up this week, as a much colder week lies ahead (after the warm-up) with several snow chances. It’s a week or so away, but the models have been very consistent about a warm-up and the cool down that follows. The only thing that has changed is the degree to which things will warm up here in New England: Not as much as initially expected. Don’t get the beach umbrella’s out just yet, unless you’re really into mid 40s weather with lots of clouds.

  112. how long is the 2 feet of snow going to stick around after tuesday hmmm probably all gonna melt by the following tuesday. because of how warm it might get over the weekend. i have 24 inches of snow on the ground

    The storm yesterday gave my area about 1.5 inches of snow, What was impressive was the wind for around here. there was a sustained wind of 25mph to 30mph from about 10pm to 3amish . Even though it was not snowing hard the sno was a powdery snow so it looked like it was snowing hard.
    tuesdays storm looks to either not affect us or give areas north and west of Boston a light to moderate snowfall. Right now going with not giving the area accumulation but a period of afternoon snow showers

    1. You’ll definitely have some snow left after the warm-up. This is NOT an epic warm-up, by any stretch. It’s not March 2012! From Wednesday through Sunday we’ll see lots of 40s and lots of clouds. That will melt a lot of snow, yes. But not all. I’d say the best chances of consistent bare ground next Sunday are in the city, not in the suburbs.

  113. The big ‘warm up’ is fading with a wimper. No widespread 50s next week. No big warm up next weekend – in fact it may be stormy. And winter cold returns after that. We’ll even have to watch a potential snow event for early the following week (though I believe the synoptic set-up would take it safely out to sea as cold air begins to dominate again).

    1. Thank you, TK, for reminding everyone of this! As you know, this is my take from perusing the models as well. Judging from TWC you’d think that we should all be in tank tops next week, getting out the Weber grills, and cooling off under the sprinkler. That is most definitely a ratings-related thing.

  115. Heights rise in the west and cold sinks into the eastern 3rd of the country well down into the Carolinas and Tennessee Valley by the Feb 25th time frame. Synoptic pattern would support a shunting of storms south and east in that time frame, but about 1 out of every 3 systems that have developed in this pattern have trended further north and west than pattern should have allowed…

  116. In January and early February the northwest fringe of storms with limited QPF were able to provide decent accumulations, it is going to take further north passes with stronger forcing and precip intensity for systems to accumulate going forward. As an example with temps of about 32 and mid-Feb sun angle it snowed lightly and intermittently for 9 hours at my house yesterday and we got 0.5″

  118. This week’s warm-up is a knock down blow to winter. But not a knock out. A quick hook that staggers and floors winter briefly. But, he gets right back up and immediately lands a left jab on spring’s unsuspecting chin. The back-and-forth battle between winter and spring in New England is about to begin.

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