1, 2, What Will They Do?

407 Comments

9:34AM

2 storms in 2 days…

#1 Today: Snow, briefly heavy, but a flip to rain Cape Cod area. Caused by a small but potent upper level low pressure system moving through the Northeast and yanking a batch of moisture northward through the region, with a secondary surface low developing as the primary one stacks up with the surface low to the northwest of southern New England. With cold air in place, it sets the stage for a quick thumping of moderate to heavy snow especially for interior eastern MA into southern NH. Some warmer air invades southeastern MA and southern RI where mix/rain will take place. This area will also see a dry slot move in with a shut off of the precipitation later in the afternoon. Where it stays snow and stays coldest, interior eastern MA to southern NH, is where several inches will accumulate. All of this should be ending by early evening as the system lifts away to the north and east.

#2 Wednesday: This is another spike of energy coming along, but a little weaker than today’s. And with milder air in place, much of the precipitation will fall as rain, with the bulk of it coming in the afternoon and early evening. A little cold air working in at the end may cause a mix northwest of Boston as it comes to an end.

A break:  Thursday, weak high pressure comes in but this time without much cold air. Fair weather and high temps around or over 40 will feel quite nice.

Warmest day: Friday, but with a price – wet weather. Many rain showers are expected as a cold front sweeps across the region, pushing milder air ahead of it from the south. Looks fast moving and should be over by nighttime, with drier air returning, as well as colder but not sharply cold. However, some icy areas may form on the ground from rain and melted snow earlier in the day.

Weekend: Looking a little less stormy than previously (though it is still early). Fair and mild Saturday, 40s a good bet. Cold front brings rain/snow showers, cooling Sunday.

Preview: Next week looks cold, not sure about storm threats this far out.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Clouds alternating a couple times with dim sun through late morning but thickening overcast with snow developing south and west of Boston toward midday. Overcast afternoon with snow overspreading all areas, moderate to heavy for a while especially inland southeastern MA, northern RI, northward through northeastern MA and southern NH, mixing with/changing to rain to the southeast especially Cape Cod & Islands, southeastern RI, into parts of southeastern MA. Precipitation tapering off to the south mid to late afternoon while continuing as mainly snow to the north but may mix right into Boston as it tapers off. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch Cape Cod, Islands, and immediate coast from Plymouth County to the  South Coast of MA, 1-2 inches southern RI and interior southeastern MA to Boston, 2-4 inches central and northern RI up along the I-95 corridor, 4-6 inches I-495 belt into southern NH where an isolated 6+ may occur. Highs 30-40 from NW to SE across the region. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH, shifting to S over southeastern MA and eastern RI later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Any lingering snow showers ending north of Boston. Patchy fog southeastern MA and RI. Watch for ice areas untreated surfaces. Lows in the 20s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain developing southwest to northeast midday-afternoon, may start as snow briefly in interior eastern MA and southern NH, and may end as a mix or snow in the same areas evening, but no additional snow accumulation in these areas. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 43.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, ending west to east late. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 44.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 33.

407 thoughts on “1, 2, What Will They Do?”

  3. Thanks TK.

    So 2-4 inches I95 Corridor. The “original” I95 was to pass “Just” to the East of
    HADI and Myself. Actually where the current Orange line tracks lie.

    So we’re in the 2-4 inch zone, eh?

    Logan in the 1-2 inch zone.

    I have a sneaky feeling you are low. We shall see.

    1. Got a few flakes here too, sky brightening to the west, so we’ll see the sun try to peak out briefly again before the clouds thicken up yet again.

      1. When do you think we will be done in our area? As in…safe to shovel with no additional accumulation.

          1. Thanks! Might be too dark to roof rake but I guess I can do that tomorrow morning unless it freezes up.

  5. Thanks TK. Is there any way you can post your forecast snow maps on here? I know it can sometimes be difficult to verbalize every single possible zone and scenario around these parts and have people visualize it.

    1. I have a version of WordPress that makes it almost impossible. Supposed to update this week. But I may be able to get something on here. If you want a comparison, Matt Noyes has a map out that is very similar to what mine would look like this morning.

        1. Trust me I want to update/upgrade this place. 😀
          I love NEAT maps which you’ll finally get to see when I do.

      2. what wordpress are you using, i use wordpress . for mine i go to photo and click on it and then put a tittle and do my forecast under it.

  7. Thanks TK. The winter keeps producing and it’s far from over IMO. We will make a run at top 10 snowiest winter in Boston.

    1. As long as the reader doesn’t think that it means 1+ inch per hour for 6 hours. It does not. 🙂

  9. Thanks, TK.

    One thing is certain: We’re making a dent in the precipitation deficit. February will likely end up well above average in terms of precipitation, in my estimation.

    1. Yes. We’re putting the drought in the back seat for now, or maybe even the trunk. 🙂

      We haven’t heard the last from it though, IMO.

    1. From NWS:

      FINALLY…WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATED NOT JUST IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT ALSO IN THE TOTAL TOTALS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLIER TONIGHT…EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

      I’m ALL for this. Hope it happens!!!

    1. Fully expect March to run cold, and most certainly start off quite cold. March Madness may be applicable to more than just sports this year. 🙂

      2. March is usually full of madness. Perhaps some of us got complacent after the abnormally warm March of 2012. That was historic. And, that will likely not repeat for many decades. in New England and the Mid West March will always be a month of major weather battles, as cold and warm clash.

        For spring lovers I suggest a trip to North Carolina in mid to late March. I’ve been there a few times for conferences, and it was tranquil, flowers beginning to bloom, low 60s. The kind of spring we just don’t have normally, even in April and May.

        1. That was when we took our yearly road trips to Charleston. It is a spectacular time of year in that area of the country. My third grand was born March 18, 2012. We had water tables set up outside for the older sibling to entertain her while mom, dad and new sister were in the hospital. It was remarkably warm two years ago.

    1. They have been the most aggressive with this, certainly. But their map does not reflect the HRRR forecast. 🙂 They’d want to nudge that stuff in NE MA and southern NH a bit further E if they were going with HRRR.

  13. Thanks TK – I’m working on two back to back projects that I have named Thing 1 and Thing 2 so laughed when I saw your title for this blog. These may well be Thing 1 and Thing 2 also 🙂

  21. Snowing pretty good in Coventry, CT. Big flakes. Got about an inch so far. Some heavy echoes off to the south over LI and advancing northward. Perhaps we will see some thunder before this is done!

    1. The heavier bands moving north and northeastward heading into CT. Mark you might get into some of those heavier bands
      Its snowing lightly but one last batch looks to push through that is sitting in the Hudson River Valley.

  30. I may be all wet and out to lunch! (so what else is new) BUT
    looking at Radar trends, I get the DISTINCT feeling that the heavier
    snow amounts will be MORE East than Forecast (ie looks like HRRR is beginning
    to verify). That NWS snowmap for more Western and Northwestern sections
    are NOT going to get the snow.

    1. What is truly scary is that I was just watching two radars and thinking the same thing. There is a very heavy band (or what I interpret as such) just south of CT and RI that looks to me as if it is slipping northeast.

    2. Don’t forget to take into account warm advection off the water, and a twist/pivot to the precipitation area as the new low wraps up very quickly.

  32. And just like that, the Charlie hole arrives just in time for the heavier snow! It’s doing absolutely nothing here right now yet everywhere else around the area is reporting moderate snow.

  35. And then Eric f tweets this. Lol

    @ericfisher: Snow has arrived! Here until approx. dinner time. Drive safe, it’s going to be coming down heavily at times.

  37. Leaving forecast amounts the same but trending toward the lower side of the ranges west and middle of the ranges east for the moment, based on radar trends.

    1. I agree. It looked much more impressive when it was over the great lakes area yesterday. The Appalachians shrunk it.

  43. Looks disorganized to me. Also warming up at the surface. Does not strike me as a Thursday repeat. We shall see.

  45. This was never even close to having a chance at being a repeat of last Thursday.

    Minor similarities in the structure.

    Major differences in the result.

    It looks disorganized because you are witnessing a transfer taking place. Watch how organized the precipitation area becomes during the next 2 hours as it lifts through eastern MA. It will snow heavily in much of the region for a while – long enough to get into the forecast range in most if not all areas. Don’t look for many, if any areas, to over-achieve.

  47. Heavy snow continues in Coventry, CT. 2″ new and an inch in the past hour. Heavy precip moving south to north and the back edge is remaining more or less stationary along/ just west of I 91. JJ, looks like you guys are getting shafted in the western half of the State.

  48. TK if you are thinking 2-4 in Worburn (for instance) by 5:30, are you also thinking the majority comes in an hours timeframe (i.e., 2-3 inches per hour later this afternoon)? 2-4 typically has meant a gradual accumulation. Of late, we seem to be seeing huge bursts that make up the majority of the accumulation over very short periods.

    2. We never reach those rates.
      Most if it comes between 1 and 4, maybe around 1 inch per hour, which is the maximum snow rates reported so far in the heaviest snow bands in far southern New England.

  49. Anybody noticed how quickly the coast from Logan to Cape Cod has warmed up? 30 in Boston, above freezing from coastal Plymouth County southward. That was no surprise either.

  50. In PVD between the 1-2/2-4 inch zone NWS snow forecast, approaching 2″ in moderate to heavy snow. Looking at the radar, it will snow here for at least another few hours, rain/snow line is holding tight at South Beach on Martha’s Vineyard for the moment. At a minimum, NWS forecast will verify here or get surpassed.

    1. East wind scours out cold very quickly. This said, the snow has picked up, it’s still below freezing, and there’s accumulation on the ground/side roads from what I see from my office window. It’ll be an interesting commute for many.

    1. The Woo is holding strong!

      TK – it can snow at 38°, etc. – what are the dynamics here, any chance for a mix/rain inland or does stay snow for the meat of the precip?

      1. The meat is snow. It may mix all the way through Boston and even immediate Metro W right at the end when it gets light (maybe last 1/2 hour of the precipitation).

  55. Just west of I-95 and north of Route 2: Enhanced band due to a boundary (coastal front). Light NW winds on the west side, E to SE breeze on the east side. Smaller version of what we see in the bigger storms.

      1. Geez, some areas right near me already closing in on 2″?!? Charlie, did u have something to do with that gap in snow I had over me till now? Now im never gonna win our bet! 🙂

      1. Not too windy. They are just drifting around with the local air flow. Maybe a bit more wind up on your hill there.

        1. Funny I was talking to the lady across the street the other day…misery loves company in the snow…HA…she said “Is it just me or do we always seem to get more snow than other parts of Woburn?” I have always said that so it was good that someone else noticed too. Maybe it is the hill…might be its own microclimate…HA.

  59. Nantucket and the south coast of Vineyard are over to rain. S/R line progressing quickly toward Cape Cod and the South Coast now.

    1. Remember this when our property taxes go up 🙂 They are obsessed with my street. In the last storm – long after it was done and the streets were black – they came by all night looking for something to do.

      1. I drove up one of the side streets that connects Lexington St. to Waltham S. one night last week after it was all long gone and there was SO much salt down it looked like we’d had a pea-sized hail that covered the ground.

        1. Yeah that’s a hilly area…not up that street often. The salt is really bad. I love it when they salt, then a plow is right behind it. Genius. 🙂 Not surprised though…walking into Woburn City Hall is like walking through a black hole that transports you back to 1943. I love also how Woburn lists their IT infrastructure on their website…just left all the hackers know the OS and email platform you use. 🙂

  62. There is a heavy snow band to my west. Southwest. North and northwest and west, but northshore is missing all of it 🙂

  63. Mark I did get shafted here in Watertown. Only 1.5 inches of snow. Your in the jackpot as I -91 east in CT will be the big winners when it comes to snowfall. I think there will be a lot of 3 4 inch reports from that part of CT.

    1. I sure do. It just got lighter here. That boundary to our W is certainly focusing things there. Synoptic heavier band from the south should override the relative lull by 2PM up here.

  67. Snowing pretty hard here in Shrewsbury. But nothing like Thursday! I find your comments about the salt on the roads on your street funny as our town does a great job of clearing our roads (and I am not complaining) but I find it deceiving. The driving looks fine, you head out and as soon as you reach the next town, not so much.

    How much snow do you think we will get here? Around 5 inches or on the lower end of the 3-5 inches some have predicted. Also the NWS has 6-8 for our area. Seems higher than anything else I’ve seen.

    1. With a miniature comma head enhanced precipitation area still to go through your area, you may get up to 2 more inches.

    2. That used to happen to me when i lived in Easton and traveled back roads through mansfield, foxboro, and then sharon to get to work. During snowstorms, the road conditions would change as i moved from town to town. When i would get to sharon the roads were always the worst, and now i live there, go figure! Where do my tax dollars even go? lol

      1. I drive to Maynard for work back roads through Shrewsbury, Northboro, Berlin, Hudson, Stow then Maynard. Hudson is by far the worse.

  68. You’re gonna think im crazy, but with all the snow events we’ve had this winter, this is the heaviest snow ive seen all winter

    1. I believe you. Just because it snows heaviest doesn’t mean it’s the biggest storm. Some areas under that enhanced band to the W and the other moving up from the S will have some intense snow for at least a short time.

  69. Side roads are back to mostly wet with a little slush, main roads just wet, as it as lightened up a bit here.

    Heaviest snow for Boston will be 1:30PM-2:30PM. Watch out O.S.!! 😀

    1. Was just going to post that…seems to have temporarily lightened up here on my end too. Neighbor is shoveling….must be bored this early on. 🙂

    1. What does this model see that NOTHING else does? Curious.

      BTW, just came in from a trip home for lunch.
      Temperature holding at 30 Degrees. Snow bordering on Moderate
      with vis 1/2 to 2/3 mile.

      Beginning to accumulate now. About 1/2 inch on cars, sidewalks and on
      top of the snow. Streets still mostly wet due to PRE-SALTING, Sun Angle and
      Not quite enough intensity. 😀 However, my street has the 1/2 inch or so
      on it. 😀

      1. According to Radar, still HEAVIER snow awaits “Just” to the
        South. What will that look like when it arrives? Dare I ask?

  77. Great reports. Thanks everyone!
    Heaviest band means business but has shrunk a bit in the last 15 min. Still producing heavy snow along its path into Boston though.

  78. From NWS at Taunton a short time ago:

    BUT CURRENT LIQUID RATIOS SUPPORT ABOUT 15
    TO 1 SNOWS. GIVEN THIS THINKING WILL BE MOVING THE ADVISORIES
    FURTHER S TO INCLUDE MUCH OF SE MA AND SRN RI.

    PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…
    ***ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL TO IMPACT EVENING RUSH HOUR***

    1. To be honest I’m not sure why there were not issued anyway. It’s not about the amount of snow, it’s about the conditions. Even if someone gets 1.5 inch snow, if it falls in about an hour, that’s impact.

      1. Where are you now? And are you headed to Framingham?

        Best I can determine, back end is out by Springfield and also
        the Southern back end is still South of the RI/CT Coast.

        1. I’m home. Mac and other employees were going to leave watertown to framingham at 2:00 but I think they need to wait it out now. He says snowing harder in Watertown now but he thought they had about an inch compared to what I’m guessing is 4.5 here – at least

  84. Still coming down hard in NE CT. Looks like we have about another hour or so here before it shuts off. 3.5″ and counting. Total base of 22″ now imby. Cold air holding strong as well. Temp still holding at 26F ..was forecast to hit 32.

        1. This wasnt me btw…

          David Messina ‏@DavidSavio11 11m
          @ToddWBZ hahahaha oh Todd !! Just like the weather flip flopping !!

  88. Temps ever so slowly on the rise throughout SE MA despite the intense snowfall. Im at 30 degrees now after being 21 just a couple hours ago

  90. I almost lowered my amounts southern part of 495 belt – glad I didn’t. Several 4+ coming in there.

  93. From Jen Carfagno of TWC:

    The randomness of weather: One of the only major cities east of the Rockies to be *below* average with snowfall this winter is Nashville. Only 1.4″ of snow all season! Average 4.7″ by now.

      1. Sticking with about 5:30. We’re entering peak snowfall rates in this area now. Gonna land right in the range I gave you earlier.

        So far everything is coming in as expected with the exception of the South Shore which obviously stayed snow and therefore got it a little heavier than anybody had there. UNLIKE the Thursday storm this rain/snow line is a due S to N, and has only gotten across the islands and into southern RI and South Coast of MA, not the South Shore, which is a different area (people often confuse the 2). 🙂

  95. Grand total of 1.5 inches in Watertown, CT. Snow is Over! Heavy bands setup shop east of me. Oh well better look next time.
    Got close to 20 inches on the ground here.

    1. Only really the south coast, southern RI, maybe a bit further N with time but after the meaningful precipitation is done.

      I forecast too early a turn-over on the South Shore.

  101. It is not lightening up in Manchester, NH. We have to be getting 3 inches an hour at this point with about 4 inches on the ground. I will be shocked if we don’t see over 6 inches.

  102. Slower rate here. We have 4.8. I am tired of changing out of wet socks so went out in bare feet. Trust me when I say the snow is cold 🙂

    1. LOL! That must be a sight! We have had it lighten up, then get heavy, lighten up, then get heavy. Heavy right now. I have no idea how much snow here – not getting my socks wet here . . . LOL.

  103. Nearly 6 inches and we just saw our first plow. Of course the street is so poorly plowed that we now only have one lane – this might cut that by half 🙂

        1. Nearly 6 was exaggerated by about .5 🙂 I was about to say it had slowe4d but seems to be a slight uptick in intensity

  105. Snow now tapering off in Coventry, CT. Received a total of 4.5″. Report from West Hartford of 5.5″ and Wallingford 6.5″. Good thump of snow as forecast here, at least in central an eastern CT. NWS lowered their numbers for my area this morning – they should have left them alone!

  106. I have not been outside recently, but looking out the window, appears we
    are closing in on 3 inches here. 😀 😀

    Hadi, what do you think?

  107. About 2 inches here now. Lighter than it was 10 minutes ago. Had the dog about back (she’s a smaller labradoodle…about 24 lbs)…she got tuckered out in about 5 minutes…snow and ice all over her LOL. Came back in to find Comcast is down..no cable, no internet or phone. I have an AT&T hotspot so I’m on for the time being with that.

  108. Police scanner – at an accident eastbound on route 9 – female officer reports “Motor vehicle accident – no injuries – males out of cars shoving each other.”

    1. Real brilliant. I hope they both slip at the same time and bruise their respective tailbones. Would serve them right. And no I’m not sorry for wishing it.

      1. I agree – sadly, they have put anyone driving in that area at risk along with the police who are at the scene.

    2. Oh boy, this weather sure can bring out the best in some people. I just witnessed a truck smash into a sign at the shopping plaza across from work. He simply backed up and took off and left the sign on the sidewalk.

  110. About to shut off in Providence. Steady progress NNE from here, but a bit of a delayed ending outside 495 as the low wraps up.

  112. 12Z Euro has an absolute bomb in 8 days off the east coast. Looks to go OTS to our south but it woulnt take much of a jog north to nail us. Something to watch

        1. Bang? Blitz? Burst? Barrage? Wham? I kind of like the sound of cannonade but that might have some nasty connotations.

        1. I think that’s the 2/24 one I tried to post a map to a week or so ago —- it just moved forward a couple of days.

        1. One of these days he’s going to slip up and call the interviewer a moron when he does a radio spot. 😉

  115. Cape Cod and SE Massachusetts WILL INDEED get the rain finally – a bit late. Very steady progress of changeover coming up from the south now.

  116. “bomb” or “bomb-o-genesis” has always been equated to the rate of deepening of low pressure, not the magnitude.

    A low that goes from 1000mb to 968mb in a matter of hours is a bomb.

    A 950mb low that took days to get there and never deepened rapidly is not a bomb.

    🙂

    1. Ok, so you’re getting technical on us.

      Well then, let’s come up with a better name for a really instense
      storm system.

      MegaLow
      Gargantulow
      Big Mama Low
      Monster
      Gorilla
      Beast
      Behemoth
      Grand Daddy
      Big Pappy
      TK Delux

      You name it. Give us something to use. 😀

          1. Me? Not at all. I’m in a great mood. Been watching Olympic hockey games, and radar. 😀

            About to go out and shovel with my son. 🙂

    2. Never trust WHW! They are all washed up and never get the city right.

      OSW is the only source for the city. 😉

  118. If there is a storm the on the east coast as I always say it needs to be watched. Will see what happens but after today don’t see any accumulating snow for at least a week.

  120. Is it me or have none of the winter storms this winter been a “slam dunk, several days before, nailing it” type of forecast? I feel for the mets, i really do. Nothing comes easy in NE, especially during the winter. Always a surprise.

    2. None have been that easy. Even the ones that any of us got “mostly right” still had an area we didn’t get right.

      But I do believe forecasts are more scrutinized than ever these days, mainly because weather always seems to end up as the top story.

      Either way, the science is what it is – a challenge, and I love it.

      1. Impossible situation for any Met, but this year has been
        particularly challenging in my opinion.

        Fortunately, we have some of the best in the business.

        We always play “arm chair met” here at WHW and have fun doing so. NONE of us would want to put anything we say or predict out to the public. I think I would soil my drawers. 😀 😀

        1. Talk about between a rock and a hard place….they get these types of storms and try to do their best while the network execs are dictating a whole set of rules that are totally counterproductive. One of our younger posters said on FB the other day he didn’t plan to go into media (I’m paraphrasing and I suspect badly). I thought about that for a while. It is a shame that those who sincerely love the profession are discouraged. And maybe worse that those who try to tough it out are made to look less than competent.

          And I step down from my soapbox which is 6.75 inches higher than it was yesterday 🙂

          1. Well said Vicki and I concur.

            Station Managers/Execs should just let the Mets
            do their jobs, PERIOD!!!

            Sad.

      1. How much did PVD end up with? I have to drive down there to TF Green to pick up a friend later tonight. His flight was already delayed 2+ hours

  123. 6.75 and now barely snowing –

    One son in law has been driving south 495 from Andover area and says lots of cars off road, driving very slow. He’s headed to Uxbridge and is planning to get off 495 and onto 9 and take 85 and then back roads to Uxbridge.

  124. Going out to shovel. By the time I’m done we’ll be done with the accumulating snow. Will give my measurement upon my return to the keys. 🙂

    If you are about to commute – be safe!

    1. Saturday was the BEST example of that, although, NOWCASTING
      finally saw through the ruse and got it correct. 😀

    2. I was just thinking the same thing Longshot. Nowcasting today was even challenging. On radar earlier it looked as though that batch would come in quick and make a quick exit. No indication of extreme snowfall rates till it hit RI and SE MA, then rates began to climb and in a short period of time delivered a moderate snowstorm for some. Just plain insane.

      1. BUT looking at Radar, it’s about to shut off here. Bummer.

        We do NOT make 6 inches. 4 IF lucky. Certainly 3.

        Don’t know about at home. Will measure when I get home. 😀

    2. I will say, the HRRR might not have been exact for all areas, but it was catching on to the right idea 🙂

    1. I have to chuckle at the LOGAN report.

      3.8 in Chelsea next door and .3 at Logan?

      WHAT? One of those reports is insanely inaccurate. 😀

  129. Downtown Providence had 4″ or 5″ prior to departure (4PM), I-95 was wet, other state highways and I-295 were a mess and still had significant slush/snow to be cleared. North of the city freezing rain/drizzle, temp dropped to 26° on the way to Smithfield. Car had a nice glaze on it. Heading to MetroWest shortly, looks like the system is pulling away from RI/SE MA.

  131. Nice call as always TK. About 1/4 inch of snow, then a few hrs of non-accumulating slop, the last hour has been rain.

    1. Tom how are roads down your way. Have a friend heading down there from this area for a late morning meeting in marshfield. He’s allowing 2 hours which I think should be fine

  134. That was a nice little quick hitter for sure. 😀

    Now can we repeat for tomorrow. Looks too warm, but 18Z Canadian is leaning
    colder. 😀

      1. That was said by my evil Gemini twin. She rethought it as she was sitting and looking at the beauty Mother Nature has given us. 🙂

    1. Absolutely spectacular winter sky behind the dark outline of trees Of course it is the only thing I can see out the front window as the snow pile now blocks my view.

  136. I live in Lunenburg. I went out to clear the driveway a little after 4:00 and measured 7″. It continued to snow heavily until about 4:30. The total was 7.5″ – 8.0″

  137. The hyper-local nature of these storms is so fascinating to me. There is no model, no forecaster who can get this perfect and this is probably the 4th storm this season that has performed like this. So you have a segment of the population that thinks you busted the forecast and another segment that thinks you were way over done. I had timing down on this and general 1-3 and 3-6 type ranges with a 6-9 type area well north and west of Boston into SNH. But look at some of the snowfall reports. There are areas that 5-10 miles could be the difference in 5+” of accumulation. Western MA north of the Mass Pike and east and west of I 91 and in the 128 / RT 2 / 495 area.

    I guess my 40″ of snow for Logan is out. It is funny how the winter can play out like you think. Cold, peroids of limited moisture, active 6 weeks January 15th-March 1st. All proven true, but oh those little details, that prove to be so significant and so hard to pinpoint.

    1. There are many who just don’t understand it – and they are the first ones to post all over the place about how we never get it right. Same jokes .. over and over. But I always send them love anyway. 🙂

      1. Oh yet if we put something like “locally heavier” at the end of the accumulations, we’d just be accused of “covering our butts”. Ok, yup.

        They can measure the snow then I have a suggestion where to put the ruler after. 😀

        And again, not sorry for the comment. 😀

  138. Charlie, u sure u wanna keep that bet? When i got done shoveling i measured at several areas in my backyard all the way down to bare ground. Came up with an average of 20″

  139. Again thank you everybody for your input and observations!!!

    Taking a break after a couple hours of shoveling with my son. No lack of exercise lately. Who needs a snowblower? 😉

    Watching an Olympic Curling match and waiting for homemade macaroni & cheese.

    Be back in a while. 😀

    1. You’re welcome. A few surprises again on this one. Potent little package of energy, even more so than I took it for.

  144. 7 even here. And JMA and TK I think you are right TK that those who post all over the place don’t understand. They are also the ones who like to be heard and think being negative gets more recognition. Very sad and I think the placement of the ruler is perfect. I don’t have the weather knowledge but I like to think I have common sense. I just don’t see any way that 2-4 inch per hour snowfall in very specific areas can be forecast.

  146. TK, thank you so much for sending the link to the Trans Labrador Highway snow-blower video. That is cool! Labrador is a place I very much want to go to. There’s a recently paved coastal highway that looks out over the Labrador sea. Talk about a remote place.

    Charlie, today’s snow is compacting quickly, and that process will continue tomorrow. The melt will then begin in earnest Wednesday evening with the rain showers. It’s going to a mess for several days, with plenty to melt. No dry streets or sidewalks all week. Clearly, snow piles and banks will survive the upcoming thaw. And suburbs will likely have snow on the lawns right through Sunday. But, you may be right about bare ground in places like the Public Garden in Boston, or Boston Common.

  147. well, who else got 8 inches. 🙂 i think jackpot for southern new england finally 🙂
    oh by the way snow is over my knees in my back yard. hopefully only 8 inches of snow go through the weekend. 🙂 I can be hopeful right

  148. 8 inches in Methuen… As a plow operator/teacher (great side job on snow days) it is getting ridiculous trying to pile snow in the streets corners are well over 7-8 feet… Just glad this is vacation week!!! The town is broke, I will be getting plow checks in July lol

    1. Sure AM gimme till Sunday afternoon? What’s my name gonna be if I lose, what’s yours gonna be if u lose? 🙂

  151. My father in law in Maine said these are biggest snow banks he has seen in years. Also said they probably be there until August (joking of course)

      1. True, and you will lose the friendly bet. But, in your defense, I see a faster melt coming here in the city than I originally expected. Today’s compacting surprised me. I went out to my car, and the 5 inches or so that we got is down to less than 2, without a real melt. What this means is today’s snow will be gone from the snow-pack by tomorrow evening. Then, the heavily compacted remainder will begin to melt. Not quite to bare ground, but it will get close. No matter what, walking around the city will be awful the rest of the week. If you think today was bad, try tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday. You’ll be wishing it was in the teens again so that at least you could walk on the crusty snow/ice. The slush and puddles will ruin many shoes, pants.

    2. In Maine, yes. Not here in the city of Boston. I am fairly sure the snow banks in 2011 were considerably bigger in Boston. The snow pack, too. It was above the park benches, and for a long time.

  152. It looks like a good dose of showers tomorrow evening, it certainly won’t melt all the snow, lol but it’s a beginning 🙂

  153. Moderate freeze up here on the Cape. We slid back to our car across the various walkways. There’s still a healthy snowpack down here. I’d say about 6-8 inches of waterlogged snow, with a top layer that has frozen up this evening.

  154. Thanks TK! I braved the storm today and made it to school 😉 Luckily I wasn’t on the road during the worst part of it. And besides, compared to what type of roads I have been on during the last few storms…this was nothing 😉

    I love your title and the wording on this one 🙂 Great job, as always!

  155. I wanted to share my pictures of today – we even got graupel! It fell down the snowmound to the sheltered leaves below on my desk (under the eaves). Let’s hope everyone can see the pictures! Today’s storm yielded roughly 9″ of fresh powder.

    First, the graupel:
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10202637539292867&set=pcb.10202637540452896&type=1&theater

    This is about how much was on the deck when all was said and done – about 25″ from today and all the other snow that was on there.
    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10202637538892857&set=a.1797568592197.2094935.1629235989&type=3&theater

  156. I think a while ago someone – was it you OS? – put steps to post the link to a pic from FB on here. Would it be possible to post them again? Thank you !!

  158. Looking at the GFS and EURO long term, it looks really cold ! The GFS seems absolutely frigid. Perhaps sub zero at night in early March ??

    Can only hope that idea eases off a bit.

    1. Crazy that the -30 850 line is lurking just to the north late next weekend on the GFS. It has been showing that consistently. Don’t think we saw that here earlier in the winter, was more out in the Midwest. Imagine if this was still January.

    2. If this were January I bet some of the temps we’ll see would be colder than what we saw at our coldest back then.

  159. In my opinion ……… This deep, region wide snow pack is playing havoc with the temperatures.

    Because of milder temps aloft, snow should be confined well N and W.

    But thats aloft.

    Here comes the clouds and I dont think the wind is supposed to be too strong with today’s event.

    I think inland surface temps, anywhere N and W of 495 will struggle to get to 32F and advisories for freezing rain are going to need to be expanded.

    2. You are right. Looking at stuff when I got up this morning – thinking the same, and adjusting the forecast a bit when I update the blog in a short bit.

  160. Plenty of TV mets with 50+ for Fri. After that I see cold and don’t see strong disturbances until 1st week of March … but since we live in NE it will probably change by tomorrow.

  161. That kind of cold so late in the season makes we wonder about a significant weather event in the form of a storm system with some feeling the effect of a blizzard and some with tornadoes. All that cold with seasonal warmth to the south makes me wonder. The cold has to come in and then it has to leave which could spell trouble.

    1. I remember that winter. Seemed snow just kept coming. I don’t think the horses moved out of the barn for a good portion of it. Daughter did learn to ride bareback in the snow which was a blast – and a cushion if she fell off.

  163. Does anyone have FINAL snow totals.

    I left the office at 5PM yesterday and there was a light rain falling with temp of 34. So officially the rain just barely made it to Boston. However, by the time I got home to JP
    it was 29 with light sleet/snizzle. Made a measurement at home 5.0 inches.

    So, I Missed on my 6 inch prediction. What did Logan come in at?
    Anyone know?

    Thanks

    1. Logan came in at 2.5????

      That Really seems low. Oh well. Nice to see the 5.5 in W. Roxbury.
      Means my 5.0 inches looks good.

      Many thanks

  165. VICKI,

    To post pictures from Facebook.

    On facebook click on the picture and it should open it up and expand it
    on another page. Do NOT copy the link of that page, but rather do one
    of 2 things:

    1. Right click on the picture and look at “Properties” You should see a link
    for the picture. It will end in .gif, .jpg, .png, .bmp etc.
    Copy this link and paste on WHW.
    2. Right click on the photo and Select open image in another window. Go to that
    window and copy and paste the link into WHW.

    Hope this helps.

    😀

      1. It will be back in some form of another. Like coastal said earlier, with this cold diving in and clashing with warmth in the south will produce a storm, just a matter of where and when.

        1. Hard to imagine with so much cold in place into March, that some sort of big storm won’t get going. It REALLY starts to warm up down South in March. Imagine the JUICE available to clash with that arctic air.

          Of course it could end up snowing on the FISH or with our luck it will produce a Monster INSIDE RUNNER!!! 😀 😀

    1. Ace,

      Many thanks for this. Very nice map indeed. Yes, HRRR didn’t miss by too much, but it did have Boston in the 6-8. Just missed by 20 miles or so, but
      it had the right idea for sure.

  170. Hmmm

    A couple of things regarding today:

    1. 12Z NAM came in colder. Sure still going to RAIN in Boston, however,
    850MB freezing line is much farther SOUTH than on previous runs.
    2. NAM shows plenty of precip AFTER 850mb freezing line collapses to the Coast.
    3. HRRR shows even Boston getting an inch of SNOW, presumably after the collapse
    of 850MB freezing line.

    Are we in for yet another surprise??????

    1. It won’t be a surprise if we see it coming. 🙂
      The 12z HRRR was a lot “snowier” than the 11z. 😀

      Actually starts the event as snow along and north of the Mass Pike and gives Boston a coating at the start and a more glorified coating at the end.

  171. Good morning, my favorite part of weather in Feb, melting!!!! Again no shots at anybody, but make sure u take pics, it will be the most snow you see this yr 🙂 Spring meetings today and tomorrow and next week, busy busy busy , good day everyone 🙂

      1. Yup 🙂 not here and south, that’s all that matters at this point, we start march 3rd, meetings meetings meetings 🙂

    1. About 17 on the ground today. With the colder temps and the cloudcover, we won’t get that much melting. Also looks like the rain may be a little less than previously thought.

      Down to 3 days where significant melting is possible..

      1. No matter what, it’s going to be a mess walking around. Lots of slush, water, glop. And that will stay with us the next several days as the melt begins.

  177. Ya know – IMHO there is not much worse than sitting down to work on taxes. I discovered there is, however, something worse. It’s when you sit down to do taxes and hear drip…..drip…..drip….splat….splat….splat….splash

    I have discovered that our neighbors think we are the keystone cops……rushing around for pans and towels and pouring out the front door to man the roof rake…..bumping into each other is not out of the question.

  180. Couple of observations:

    1. While there’s a lot of snow out there, it’s already melting here in Chinatown. Even the snowbanks are melting. Granted, it seems that snow never lasts long in Chinatown. Closer to where I live there hasn’t been as much melting. If we do hit 50 on Friday and Saturday, with any sun at all, there will be a major melt.

    2. Still would not surprise me to see a major storm come at us early next week, one the models had before and that has slipped away for now.

    3. Brace for some Arctic cold next week, with a day or two with highs only in the teens. That is very impressive this time of year.

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