Minor Mess

166 Comments

2:09PM

The second storm system in 2 days will move through southeastern New England this afternoon and tonight. It will be mild enough for mostly rain from the immediate Boston area south and southeast, but cold air hangs on for mix/snow to the west and north. where rain occurs, it may be heavy enough for some local flooding of streets and parking lots due to snow-blocked storm drains. The storm is made up of one low passing to the northwest of the region and a secondary low forming near or just south of Boston which will then move into the Gulf of Maine this evening. Enough cold air coming in at the end of the precipitation may flip it to snow into Boston and parts of southern MA to northern RI, but with only minor accumulation in these areas.

A break comes tomorrow, which will be a fair day with relatively mild air, as non-Arctic high pressure dominates. Clouds will arrive later tomorrow as a warm front approaches, and this may bring some rain later at night, especially from Boston north and west. A one-day shot of warmer air comes on Friday, but a cold front sweeping eastward into the region will bring a band of showers and even the chance of a few thunderstorms during the afternoon. This will push eastward and out of the region Friday evening. The air will not be too cold behind the initial cold front, setting up a decent day Saturday with dry, mild weather. A second cold front will pass through the region Sunday with a few rain/snow showers.

Next week looks much colder as we get another visit from the infamous Polar Vortex, though it remains too early to be sure about timing of any snow threat.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Rain develops west to east, except mixed freezing rain/snow to mostly snow near and west of I-95 north of the Mass Pike. Highs 31-41 from northwest to southeast across the region. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to E late.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain ending as mix/snow in all but central and southern RI eastward through southeastern MA. Accumulation of snow from a coating to 2 inches possible interior eastern MA through southern NH. No accumulation immediate coast and areas to the south. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine, fading later in the day behind increasing clouds. Highs 40-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Rain showers, ending late. Low 40. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Much colder, dry weather expected but will watch unsettled weather to the south that could move north with a snow threat. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

166 thoughts on “Minor Mess”

  2. Accidentally wrote 495 where I meant 95 in 2 places. All fixed!
    Colder solution this afternoon.

    1. Been saying lately I’d love a week with no snow…it’s at the point now where I will take one 24 hour period with no snow…please. 🙂

  4. Beginning to see something small for 26th and 27th, and something potentially larger for March 2nd and 3rd. Yes, I know, in the world of NE weather that’s light years away.

  6. I’m not getting caught off guard. I wrote that blog 2 hours ago, but just reviewed short range guidance and current obs and brought the snow a little further south and east. In fact, it’s snowing in Woburn, as noted above. Earlier, I figured rain here with a mix at the end and maybe a flip to snow at the tail end. Nope. Too cold. More snow on the front end too.

    1. I do have leeway but will see, we r mainly worried about snow cover, we’ve been here before, not rooting against snow lovers lets make that clear, but we r very happy we r getting rain, I’ll let u know 🙂

  19. Been snowing HARD in Chelmsford – near white-out conditions! Holy heck, I wanted to go out to get my birthday latte at Starbucks… despite having all wheel drive, I think I’ll skip it 🙁 Interestingly, on Channel 5’s radar, it depicts rain, not snow. Raining aloft?

  28. If the skies clear late tonight, with light winds, the low temps will undershoot by at least 5F the NWS’ 20s to low 30s. This, in turn, will result in tomorrow ending up a bit cooler, etc …..

    About the only day that I think is really mild is Friday and I’m discouraged at the depth of the cold showing on the GFS and EURO long term.

    Way this winter has been going, snow is nearly a sure bet sometime during the last week of Feb or the 1st week of March.

  29. OK time to ask the question about the Radars.

    HOW, again I ask HOW, does it determine WHEN the echoes are SNOW or RAIN?

    Is it some sort of fancy algorithm based on the return echoes OR is it a composite of up-to-date surface reports. I have NEVER received an answer to this question.

    Because the radar displays are CLEARLY WRONG!!!

    1. I was just talking to a met tech and he said when the temperatures are so marginal, the radar can mess that up easily. That’s what we saw here. And this is why it’s important to check surface obs. That is what triggered me to update my #’s and rain/snow line about 1 hour or less before it got here.

      1. TK,

        Thank you BUT you didn’t answer the question, however, I guess I can infer from your answer that it is INDEED some sort of
        sophisticated algorithm based on analysis of the return echoes?
        correct? thanks

    2. I wonder, too. Northern Worcester and west of them are all under Winter Weather Advisories, as well as extreme northwest Middlesex County. I think they should extend the advisory east to include all of Middlesex and at least Essex County, too. Also Hillsborough and Rockingham Counties in NH.

  31. Some sort of MIX here now. Can’t tell if it is Snow and Sleet or Snow and Rain, but
    clearly it is a mix.

  34. Kinda of a mix downtown … sort of depends on when you are looking out the window.

    I told everyone, nowcasting doesn’t even work this winter!

  36. Brighton/Watertown was pouring straight snow, now rain with big flakes mixed in.

    Also, it’s gross outside. Don’t go.

  37. Another blown forecast by most mainstream networks…snow piling up here and I have to shovel it eventually.

    1. Yup. We all suck, even more today than yesterday. 🙂

      I think JMA explained it well. The temps today were so marginal even the radar didn’t know what was going on.

  41. Kitchen sink … Slop .. Yuck … I like winter, but ain’t liking this. Just walked through some huge puddles of slush, icy water. Just think, this is Day One of the melt-down. Oh well, we knew we had to endure this at some point. I’m already looking to next week.

  42. As I was driving route 3 south from lowell the heavy snow turned to sleet in 2 seconds as soon as I entered billerica. Looked back in my mirror and I can see like the dividing snowwall. Really amazing!

  45. Pouring in Marshfield, light NE wind, 36F and there’s a big, ankle deep puddle at the base of our driveway.

  46. Mac said driving watertown to wayland (his current location) is fine. Police scanner reporting lots of accidents and bad roads in Framingham, however.

  50. ok made giant snowforts this afternoon and had a snowball fight with my two brothers 🙂
    sadly going to get into the 40s and rain showers on friday. so i think at least half the snow cover will melt. which is about knee deep(2feet 2 inches.)
    not going skiing over the weekend. waiting till tuesday.
    hopefully not to much snow melts or we be talking flooding and ice jams

    1. Son used to build the most amazing snow forts. I miss those days. Enjoy them Matt and keep sharing as I enjoy hearing about them 🙂

        1. I have been killing it with chopping at the roof. Just ordered the same one at homedepot.com. Stores are all out.

          1. Yep we got ours at Home Depot. Was$49 I think. Handle fits inside itself. You may have already had that. Our old one was several years old and flimsy compared to this. Good luck

  52. All TV mets have snow for next Wednesday. It is amazing so much agreement not only on snowfall maps this winter but even on 7-day forecasts. That is certainly a first at least from my perspective.

  53. We will not make it through the cold snap without at least one snowstorm. And probably a pretty decent one.

  54. I don’t think I made many friends on WBZ and WCVB FB pages today when I spoke my mind about people overreacting, asking where Spring is (hint, the first day is March 20 and that doesn’t mean much), or just plain bitching about winter, which so far, is not historically significant, just colder and snowier than average. 🙂

  58. As much as i want spring. I am going to miss reading the discussions about winter storms. this blog is a ghost town in the non winter months.

      1. I don’t agree its a snow blog. Its just as active when the storms roll in during summer. Or when the hurricanes threaten. This year there is just more snow. Snow…thunder….etc. It is all weather and that makes it a weather blog

        2. I read from time to time in the non winter months but not nearly as much as the winter. This blog is addicting in the winter. I do love winter but it would not hurt my feelings if we had an early spring.

  59. Be extra careful as you walk the sidewalks this evening. It’s treacherous. The sidewalks appear to be icing over, even though the thermometer says 34F. In Holland, where I used to live, weather forecasters called this phenomenon (I’m translating from Dutch) “frost on the ground/or at the surface.” So, it can be above freezing, say, 6 feet above the ground, but on the ground it’s 32F. I wonder if TK could chime in to explain this phenomenon.

  60. For what it’s worth, TWC has lowered the daytime projected highs for Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, by between 2 and 4 degrees. Friday’s projected high is now 51F and that’s the only high above 50F. Yesterday and today turned out lower than expected. Perhaps the projections are taking into account the snow-cover. I don’t know.

  62. Fog temp 34.1 🙂
    Wbz this morning even said they’ve had it with this winter, very very bad, cold and snowy, worst winter since weve moved back in 05,, by far!!!tomorrow is gonna be nice!!! For everyone that likes the sun that is 🙂 There’s a reason they call it old man winter, no disrespect to no one. Goodnight 🙂

    1. Don’t apologize for wanting warmer weather. If people on here love all weather like they claim, there would be no reason to take offense.

  64. Charlie do we have to deal with this for the next 3 days?

    PV is being brought up nationally for next week. It does look cold and stormy.

    1. If I have to deal with u and your snow, then yes you have to deal with me and the warmth the next 4 days, not 3

    1. Btw, I’ll be seeing a friend in Providence on Sunday, so I’ll do a bare ground test in your area. I’ll bring a camera and collect evidence. It’s going to get close to bare ground, but no cigar. Besides, even if there are bare spots, I think they’ll all be covered with lots more snow next week.

  66. Does anybody remember on the bz blog manoweather. He always spoke of global warming. If a snowstorm he would say it is going to rain he would also talk about how warm winter would get even though we would be in the middle of a cold pattern.He would try to get everybody worked up who likes winter weather. I think he may post here but under a different name!!!

  68. sleeding hill race. my two brothers my friend and my 2 neibors. so 6 of us. i currently sit tied for 1st. with my brother Ben . mike and my brother chris is tied for 3. i tought my brothers well 🙂

    1. That’s awesome.
      I love how you do that stuff.
      I’m 46 and still go sledding with my son and enjoy it. Of course I don’t ski so I need something. I can snowboard a little bit. 😀

  69. Well I see the Euro has a nuclear snow bomb in our future. I am going to become a TV met so I’ll be hyping this one for 10 days. I’ll start by producing snow maps a week out with areas showing 1 foot and more. 🙂 🙂

    (I often wonder if news writers and casters have to take a course entitled hypeology 101.)

    2. That’s a good one!!! 😀 😀

      btw, not other models have that system. FIM has one but not intense and
      off shore. We shall see. It did look intense that’s for sure.

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=240

      If you draw a line from where it was 24 hours earlier to where it goes,
      it takes it very close to the benchmark. 😀 😀

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=216

    1. Not for nothing, but some models have that 850mb freezing line SOUTH of
      the Boston area and some have it North. Would not surprise me at all to
      see a period of snow or sleet or mix even in Boston, before changing over.

  72. From NWS this morning:

    NEXT WEEK…CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS BECOMES ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN STATES/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. 00Z ECENS BRINGS A LARGE PLUME OF -32C AT 850MB ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE JET STREAM/STORM TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POSSIBLE WAVE TRACKING CLOSE TO THE REGION THE
    MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

    2 things stick out here:

    1. CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS
    Really? -32C at 850mb. Me thinks that’s an Arctic Air mass.
    So is this really a CP airmass or a CA airmass??????

    2. THIS MAY SUPPRESS THE JET STREAM/STORM TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL.
    Will this hold? Euro and GFS has something for mid-week, although so far it is
    not too strong and more off shore.

        1. Yup, me too. In high school I subscribed to a Government service and was sent the coolest weather maps on
          a daily basis. Absolutely fascinating. I loved them!
          I was able to observe how the maps depicted the weather
          that just recently occurred. 😀

          Except for some happenstance in my life, I would have
          become a Meteorologist. In fact, the Federal government was going to pay for my Masters in Meteorology, until one Richard Nixon applied the squeeze and froze everything.

          SO I received my undergraduate degree in Mathematics with a minor in physics, got married & Had our daughter and so went the meteorology career. The story of my life. 😀

    2. I’m concerned about OTS, O.S. However, I do believe we’re not going to escape this winter without really getting whacked. I don’t see and end to the cold until mid-April anyway and when the south heats up and maybe some spring-like blocking sets up look out.

    1. I was going to post that. Imagine those totals with a 15:1 or 20:1 ratio!!!!!!

      SNOWMAGGEDON
      SNOWPOCALYPSE

      But of course, at this juncture, that is pure fantasy.

      Anyone want the over/under on whether or not the 12Z run of the Euro even has that system?

      IF it does, I say it happens in some form or other. (Different intensity, track etc. but it happens). IF not, C’est la vie

  74. Good morning!! WOW!!! Beautiful day today!! Already 33.2 degrees, makes ya wanna go yahooooooooo!!!!! Nothing makes me happier than sunshine and mild temps, again no disrespect. Good day all 🙂

      1. We went from 16 to 15 here. But we had almost 1 inch of snow from your rain, and just a little rain at the end (drizzle, really).

        1. We went from 26ish to 28ish…temps were 27 this morning when I left for work. Easily 2-3 times the amount of snow on the ground vs. the city of Boston

  75. Old Salty…
    The 2 points you bring up above are very good ones.
    1) It will be Arctic, not Continental Polar.
    2) I’m not falling for that anymore. 😉 It may be dry for a good part of the cold snap, but we’re not escaping it unscathed.

  76. Updating the blog…
    Parts of the region are getting measurable snow tonight.
    Lowering temps through the entire forecast.
    There will still be a fair amount of snowcover left on the ground just about everywhere, even after Saturday. Natural refrigeration unit.

  77. Agree about some snow accumulation north and west tonight. FYI (We got more snow on Wednesday than Tuesday) This winter has been so easy to predict snowfall accumulations…

    Additional agreement about cooler temps than forecast but I think we have been saying that for a week now.

    If I had to go out on a limb I would think that mid-week system next week delivers some accumulating snowfall into southern New England on Wednesday with further north stronger solution than currently modeled by 00z GFS/ECMWF OPS. I think the ECMWF ENS mean is a pretty good indicator of what I think right now. So not a big event, but perhaps some additional light accumulation for the snow pack? After that I see a more significant suppression of the big storm around march 2nd. Do not like how the ECMWF OP is handling the west coast energy at the time, it set up looks really implausible, so avoiding its solutions in that time frame for now.

    2. I want to completely agree on the significant suppression but every time I think that this winter it goes the other way. We’ll see. 🙂

      Thanks for the thoughts!

  78. Up to 35 in Boston, after a cool start. When I ran this morning at 6am it was 29. With sunshine we may reach 50, though I doubt it. Still, it’ll be a mess with all the melting. Some serious cold coming at us next week. Could records fall? Not sure. But, for late Feb/early March it’s a cold outbreak that means business.

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