“Dam” That Cold Air!

160 Comments

11:37AM

The cold snowcover continues to allow the surface cold air to hold in place over most of southeastern New England while warmer air trying to advance in from the south, ahead of a cold front, rides up and over the dense cold wedge of air dammed up over the region. Some of the warm air will start to erode away the cold later today, enough to send temperatures into the 40s especially in the coastal plain and far southern areas. But by the time that happens, a ribbon of rain and embedded thunderstorms will be moving through the region along a cold front. Ahead of that we’ll see areas of fog and drizzle in the cold air, but at least the temperatures have gone above freezing, to the middle and upper 30s, to preclude any further icing as some areas had been slippery to the north of Boston.

Once the cold front clears the region from west to east this evening, the wet weather will exit and clouds will decrease, but the clearing sky will allow the temperature to drop to below freezing overnight in much of the region, especially away from the urban areas and immediate shoreline. Watch for icy spots on untreated walk ways, driveways, and roads that remain wet from rain and snow-melt runoff.

Saturday will be a fair and relatively mild day as high pressure moves in with its origins not in the Arctic, but much further south, with a modified cool air mass. This will be the type of day that is good for removing excess snow and ice from driveways, roofs, etc., but use caution if doing so.

Sunday will be a transition day as a trough and cold front move through the region. A few rain/snow showers may occur during the day, and as an Arctic cold front moves through at night, watch for some snow showers and possibly a period of steadier snow with a potential low pressure wave forming along the front.

Next week it’s back to the cold weather as the Polar Vortex makes a trip into southeastern Canada and supplies the northeastern US with fresh cold air. We’ll have to watch for a developing low pressure area offshore that  may be close enough to threaten the region with a period of snow sometime between Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Reinforcement of cold air is likely as that system moves away.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle along with a chance of light rain through mid afternoon, then numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms arriving west of Boston late afternoon and early evening. Late day high temps push into the 40s but may stick in the upper 30s interior valleys. Wind light E eventually turning S 10-20 MPH and gusty but not til the end of the day in many areas (southern areas sooner, northern areas and valleys later).

TONIGHT: Cloudy with many showers and possible embedded thunderstorms ending from west to east early, lastly over Cape Cod, followed by breaking clouds west to east. Lows 28-35 by morning, coldest inland / rural areas. Watch for icy spots on untreated surfaces. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with stronger gusts, shifting to W from west to east.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind light W.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers during the day, snow showers and possibly a period of snow at night. Highs in the 30s to 40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 31.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 11. High 28.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 13. High 26.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 8. High 24.

160 thoughts on ““Dam” That Cold Air!”

    1. Not that even the CMC version is a biggie. Approximately .3 to .4 inch qpf is all.
      BUT it would be a nice 2-5 inches or so. 😀 😀

      Wednesday is getting more and more interesting. Dying to see what
      the 12Z Euro has to say about that. 😀

  3. Vicki – to follow up on your question from the previous blog:

    In general I would not recommend a mall, especially in the case of a tornado. But in this case I recommended she just be in a part of the mall without a large exposed roof, in case they got a powerful straight line wind, which was the primary threat (low tornado risk in that area). She stayed in a smaller roofed area. She just reported to me that she could hear the roof “whistling” as the line went by but that everything is ok there. She is soon heading back to her neighborhood, which has the big trees. I figured she’d be safer out of that neighborhood. Awaiting a report on conditions back at her home. She’s about to head back as the line as gone by there.

    1. Thanks TK. In addition to the chance of being caught on the road and not knowing where to go, we don’t have a basement and are surrounded by large trees on three sides. We have a center bathroom with no windows but I like to always know alternatives. By mall are you meaning a strip mall with one floor? I appreciate your taking the time to answer. I think in the NE we are not as knowledgeable re tornado prep as areas where they are frequent (e.g., Atlanta in snow)

      1. I am very happy the threat has passed for your friend but that must have been unnerving to say the least when she heard the roof whistle. I’m glad she has you to talk to. Your knowledge and the fact you are watching the radar in her area has to be a huge comfort

        1. I believe it is a smaller, low profile building.

          Also made sure she had plenty of time to get there before the heavy weather arrived.

  5. 12z Euro has got the Wednesday storm, more amped but still southeast of the benchmark like GFS. Definitely seeing a trend!

    Regarding the Sunday night system, Euro (like the GFS doesn’t have much) but NAM, RGEM, and UKMET want to give us a few inches.

    1. Yes, Southeast of benchmark, however, as you say it’s a trend.
      Even so, still throws up precip. Perhaps 2-4 or even 3-6 inches.

        1. What would you have:

          colossalstarenormousstarextensivestargargantuanstargiantstargiganticstargreatstarhumongousstarimmensestarmagnificentstarmammothstarmassivestarmonstrousstarmonumentalstartoweringstartremendousstarvaststarbehemothicstarbulkystarcyclopeanstarelephantinestargrossstarimmeasurablestarjumbostarleviathanstarlustystarmightystarmondostarmonsterstarmountainousstaroutsizestaroversizestarplanetarystarprodigiousstarstupendousstartitanicstarwallopingstarwhopping 😀 😀 😀

          1. colossal, enormous, extensive, gargantuan, giant, gigantic, great, humongous, immense, magnificent,mammoth, massive, monstrous, monumental,towering,tremendous,vast,
            behemothic, bulky, cyclopean, elephantine, gross,immeasurable, jumbo, leviathan, lusty, mighty,mondo,monster,mountainous,outsize, oversize,planetary,prodigious,stupendous,
            titanic,walloping,whopping

  8. Good afternoon, fog drizzle and a occasional shower, certainly not cold air, 42.2 degrees, a ton of melting has caused some rivers to become full, looks like a nice weekend and in the 40’s, talk about snow melt!! WOW!! 5.5 inches left here, there will be no snow here by Sunday, guaranteed!! next weeks looks like an anamonley type week especially temp wise, we have 54 customers scheduled the week of March 3rd, can be delayed 1 week but will see, saw that company called tru green applying limes today in Wareham, now that’s bad, there’s patchy snow and patchy grass and applying lime, BAD!! Good day everyone, and think spring like most of us r 🙂

      1. Same here, and even thicker at the sea wall, perhaps 500ft. Kind of neat seeing the waves come out of the fog just beyond the wall.

  10. vicki…
    my professor stated that she thinks if we continue to do what we do and release more and more green house gases, we will warm up drastically . This will eventually lead to increased natural disasters. Eventually these natural disasters will cool us off but not for a long time. It will take a long time for this process to happen.

    1. Thanks Matt. Makes perfect sense to me. And as I believe was said by many – even if in fact that is not accurate, releasing the gases, using fossil fuels, etc, is harming our environment. It’s a win-win if we use our knowledge to develop other methods. We are going to run out of what we are using anyway.

  13. I believe the March 2nd storm has a good shot of materializing and being our biggest storm yet. Next Wednesday’s storm and how close it gets will be an indication of that. Earlier in the week the models were calling for arctic air plunging southward starting mon/tues. Now, that is muted to the point where the storm wed has a good shot at getting close enough to give some of the area snow. Now, the models show the real cold air showing up after wednesdays storm passage, allowing the march 2nd storm to pass well to our south. I think the cold will be muted again at that time, not dipping as far into the south as modeled, allowing a big storm to get up here for march 2nd.

      1. Ah yes, but he always has it out for NE for some reason, always thinks it will be worse in the south and mid-atlantic until the end when its clear it will rain there and snow here, then he plays catch-up and tries to backpedal

  15. The mild air is not that far away.

    Coastal front sitting just E of Logan.

    logan’s wind is 060, but 16 nautical miles out in the harbor … its 120.

    The ocean is chilling the mild air some, as its only 39F with the SE wind.

    1. Martha’s Vineyard is 50F …… Nantucket, Hyannis and Falmouth are up into the mid 40s, Plymouth is up to 42F and Marshfield is 39F.

    1. Ace, I also mentioned above that the models are trying to revive the 3/2 storm but I am wondering if cold air will be there … ??

      1. I sure hope so. The models have been slowly trending to either delaying the real cold or muting it somewhat to just below normal until after next wednesday’s potential system now. We’ll see how far south it sets up and if theres enough cold left by then. My guess would be yes

  17. Very impressive intact line of storms that came through the east coast today from NJ all the way down to the gulf

    1. There are a couple cells beginning to cross Long Island that look intense and there’s one NE of Pittsfield, MA thats holding its own.

      1. and some heavier showers popping in NW Rhode Island.

        A few gully washers and some localized street flooding may be in the cards this evening for a few communities.

  19. Will that line of storms and associated front clear out all this yuckiness? It looks like a Stephen King movie outside my office window.

  21. Not sure if anyone looked into next week yet but we could be dealing with a major snowstorm in Boston. There are a few hints and suggestions from our fickle models that the biggest winter storm of the season could strike these parts around the middle of next week. With the way this season has played out thus far, I do not believe it is too far-fetched even though we are 6 days away from a potential event. Just thought I’d throw that out there.

    1. We’ve been talking about it arod. Really liking the setup for middle of next week as well. Not sure about biggest storm of the season, but definitely the potential to be significant.

        1. I agree, it’s really going to be booking which should limit this from becoming a blockbuster. But I could see it becoming a 6-12″ event.

        2. With that in mind, we have been very lucky to get what we have this winter with the NAO being positive pretty much all winter.

          1. I totally agree. You look at Boston, NYC, and Philadelphia all over 50 inches of snow so far this winter
            with progressive storm systems dumping the majority of those totals.

  22. Storms moving NE across Long Island are maintaining their intensity. They seem to be on a path that would take them across SE Mass.

  23. Tom Special Marine Warnings out for parts of Long Island Sound with those storms. What a week of weather from accumulating snow to tracking thunderstorms.

    1. Indeed …. I think these cells have had warnings, either for thunderstorm or special marine warning all the way back to when they were in NJ. They must have some decent upper level support to be maintaining themselves in the cooler air.

  24. Btwn these renegade showers in eastern Mass and then the line with the cold front, perhaps some towns in northeast Mass that have a deep snow cover are in line for 1 inch of rain his evening. Hope those storm drains are cleared.

    1. I have been watching and the models have been struggling with “the event(s)” but there seems to be a trend toward bringing a larger storm back into the picture. The picture is unclear for sure, but my earlier joking reference to a nuclear snow bomb is not out of the question.

      1. nuclear snow bomb

        That is the term of the year and you should receive the WHW
        award for Excellence! 😀

      2. I agree with the storm threat in this time period but think it happens later, closer to 3/4. The dome of cold air in the wake of the Wed storm will be firmly entrenched in the east, suppressing any storm that forms in the Gulf later in the week and pushing it out to sea. Think we need to wait a few more days after that for the next piece of energy to move in. Regardless, the first full week of March looks potentially active!

  26. On a special weather statement, it says the storms in southern CT and around LI are moving northeast ………. At 75 mph !!!!!

    2. Look at the radar. These storms are ROCKETING and POPPING up
      all over Eastern MA. The storms just crossing the coast of RI, are juicy
      and mean business.

        1. ID Max Top VIL Severe Hail Hail Max Hail Size Speed Direction (from)
          2 G0 56 dBZ 11,000 ft. 22 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 72 knots SW (234)
          1 E0 54 dBZ 19,000 ft. 22 kg/m² 0% chance 20% chance <0.50 in. 66 knots WSW (248)
          1 C0 51 dBZ 20,000 ft. 15 kg/m² 0% chance 20% chance <0.50 in. 68 knots SW (226)
          2 D0 48 dBZ 13,000 ft. 8 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 76 knots SSW (209)
          2 A0 48 dBZ 14,000 ft. 8 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 58 knots SW (224)
          2 F0 48 dBZ 13,000 ft. 8 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 76 knots SSW (206)
          2 B0 42 dBZ 9,000 ft. 3 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 60 knots SW (218)

          1. Special marine warning has been extended eastward, all the way to Buzzards Bay. Peaking at a couple lightning detection maps, I think these south coast storms have a decent amt of lightning.

            Plymouth up to 49F, Block Island above 50F with a strong S wind.

            Its like the warm front from the south and the cold front from the west are converging on each other right over New England.

  28. Heavy rain in Manchester CT. Have not heard any thunder. STILL sitting at 38 degrees. We may not even crack 40 today let alone 50! And this ribbon of rain is moving so fast it is going to be in and out of here in an hour. Snowpack is holding its own better than I expected.

  30. See if this will post

    Storm Speed/Toward 85mph NE
    Chance of Hail 0%
    Storm Top 14000ft
    Height at Maximum Intensity 9700ft
    Maximum Intensity 53dBZ
    Light Severe
    Radar Site KBOX
    (Boston, MA)
    Storm Cell Id

        1. Almost looks like an arrowhead now. Clearly a segment
          of it is pronounced and “bowed” out in front of the rest
          of the line.

          2. Yep. Thanks. My DIL says it is raining hard in providence. They r east of city I believe near federal hill. They now have thunder and lightening

  32. Is this possible???

    R0 52 dBZ 13,000 ft. 8 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 84 knots SSW (208)

    84 KNOTS!!!! That is 96.6655 MPH!!!!!

    Holy Crap!!!

    1. I guess that is what causes the “bowing” effect, some cells are racing
      forward at a much higher speed than the others? I guess that is why
      there can be more serious wind with “bow” segments.

  34. Tk r we out of the abnormally dry ? I would think so, and would think being to dry is a thing in the past.

    1. The last report still had a few areas of abnormally dry in eastern MA, but that makes sense. It takes a long time to reverse that without an extreme pattern. And we have not had an extreme pattern by any stretch.

      However, the snowmelt upcoming will continue to help reduce the long term dryness.

      Short term dryness is no longer an issue, obviously.

  37. First flash of lightning from the approaching line and distant thunder off to the SW at 5:19PM from Woburn.

  38. I saw a pinkish flash from here at 5:26PM and it just so happens that it was a bolt that hit the top of the Pru in Boston. My wife works right next to it and she had a front row seat. 😉 Said it was the sharpest crack she ever heard.

    2. Biggest fear in thunderstorms is when its overhead and the lightning and thunder are basically at the same time and it has a crackling sound to it.

    1. And north of wellesley. I can’t believe these things are here already. Sky is that eerie color and winds are absolutely calm. Sadly looks as if we will miss the fun but still an awesome sight.

    1. Mind boggling really. And outs to rest the theory that this blog lights up only when there is snow. Darn bit that was fun. I know you don’t like T&L Tom. Sorry 🙁

  44. New Bedford gusted to 45 knots, Plymouth to 33 kts and Marshfield to 26 kts from the south.

    The temp, during the t’storm went from 45F to 52F !!!!!!

    2. I’m envious of the description of your location/view. I am not a city person but if I were I’d want your apartment. Any spare rooms ????

      1. Haha. It has it’s drawbacks – believe me – but location isn’t one of them!

        Tom, didn’t see the bolt, but DEFINITELY saw the flash! Holy smokes.

  46. Weather 101…

    Why did the storms survive nicely, and even build some, despite the temperature being in the 30s with damp, foggy weather?

    I’ll let one or some of you answer that. 😀

    3. Big enough of a difference between the warm air and cold air – and that’s about as far as I can take it.

      1. Bingo.

        Low level inversion trapped the cold air right near the ground. Just a thousand feet above us, it was quite warm and humid. Above that, it was cold again, setting up the instability between the warm air just above the ground and the cold air above that. Basically the cold layer near the ground was ignored and none of that air was sucked into the storm updrafts to weaken them. Elevated storms.

  47. Martha’s Vineyard gusted to 37.

    Marshfield is up to 54F. It is nice out !! Snow melting quite quickly. Probably down to a 4 inch depth.

  48. This may have been discussed earlier – but how common is it to have tornadoes in the winter as we had in Illinois today? Pretty boring here in the “bury” – not thunder – a downpour around 4 PM and fog. I’m excited about getting some of the ice off our driveway this weekend. Wet ice = not a good thing.

    1. Though they are less common than in the Spring and early Summer, Winter tornadoes in the Midwest and especially the South are not all that rare. There were several big tornado outbreaks in January and February, especially in the 1980s.

  52. Lightning that you all said hit the PRU lit up our house and the thunder shook it.
    Pru is about 3 miles from here. 😀 😀

    18Z GFS wants to bring back our old friend, the Forlorn Trough for Wednesday. 😀 😀

    1. 12Z CMC Ensemble mean for Sunday night/Monday AM

      http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmcens/2014/02/21/basis12/namk/prec/14022412_2112.gif

      12Z CMC ensemble mean for Wednesday

      http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmcens/2014/02/21/basis12/namk/prec/14022700_2112.gif

      GFS ensemble mean for Wednesday

      http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ens/2014/02/21/basis12/namk/prec/14022700_2112.gif

  55. A wicked t-storm (for winter time ) came through where i live in Nh. It was like something you would see in the summer time. I counted 8 big flashes of lightning and torrential rain.

  57. Putting in a new blog update now since most of the discussion above was about today. Time to shift the focus to the beautiful weekend we’re about to experience and look ahead at next week’s return to cold!

    Blog will be posted just after 8PM!

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