Wintermission

135 Comments

8:05PM Friday original

8:05AM Saturday update

Winter will take an intermission for the weekend, which will be quite nice for this time of year. A relatively mild airmass will dominate, with mostly dry weather into Sunday. Later Sunday, a strong cold front will move into the region from the west, with a few rain showers at first, then a few snow showers and possibly a period of snow at night. This will signal a return to a much colder pattern next week as the Polar Vortex takes up residence over eastern Canada. Watch for a potential snow threat around the middle of next week as low pressure tries to get going offshore and may be close enough to spread snow into southeastern New England. Behind that will arrive the coldest air of the upcoming cold stretch.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-35. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers late in the day, snow showers and possibly a period of snow at night. Highs 42-50, turning colder at night. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW at night.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 11. High 29.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 13. High 26.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 8. High 24.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

135 thoughts on “Wintermission”

  5. Lighting struck my building in Boston causing the fire alarms to go off. Flash and ball of lightning and a bang (like a loud electrical noise you hear at the Science Museum in the hall of electricity) as it hit the building. My guess is that it hit iron or some conducting metal. No damage, thankfully. Glad I wasn’t outside, and that no-one was outside in the vicinity of the building at the time of impact. Fire department couldn’t find any damage. They re-set the alarms.

    Lots of melting going on, despite a very raw, cool day (TK predicted it, and almost no other met did – this was never going to be a warm Friday). Huge puddles everywhere. Walking the sidewalks is not fun. Bare ground is definitely within reach by Sunday afternoon. I measured in the Public Garden and we’re down to 4 inches in spots, and 8 or 9 inches tops (and that’s nestled up against the receding snow banks). I had several people staring at me and wondering what the heck I was up to with my yard stick. I’m sure it’s a different story outside the city. For some reason city snow melts faster, even in green areas, like the Esplanade, Boston Common, and Public Garden.

    1. A bit nerve wracking I’d say. Glad all is ok. You are right and I’d forgotten. I think TK said a week ago it wouldn’t be the warmup as advertised. I’m chuckling at the looks you might have gotten walking around with a yardstick. 😉

    2. city snows melt quicker do to the heat generated by the increased people, cars, trucks, factories . etc. though snow can last longer if there is a crusty black coating on top of it.

  6. Thanks tk, spring fever tommorrow and Sunday, where did the snow go? Very impressive I must say, I think some will reach 50’s and with sun a lot of bare patches will start to appear, cold air looks a bit less potent, will the strong sun angle it makes it much more tolerable, have a goodnight, 🙂 think spring 🙂

    1. Still have 13 or 14 on the ground here and fairly high snowbanks as well.

      The paved areas are mostly cleared of residual snow/ice though quite a bit of ice formed tonight from snowmelt/rain runoff. Actually quite extensive road treatment was needed.

      I do expected to lose more than half of the snowcover (maybe down to 6 inches) by Sunday, but we won’t even be close to bare ground across most of the region, and then what is leftover will freeze up and sublimate slowly with minor melting in sunny areas during the coming week.

      I looked at a bunch of web cams to gauge snowcover today, and it’s amazing to me how much less snow is on the ground right around North Attleboro versus everywhere else around there. It’s truly a snow hole zone – like Nashville TN has been this winter.

  8. What a noisy day in the neighborhood!
    Rooftop snows crashing to the ground, topped off with a decent winter thunderstorm!
    All’s quiet and peaceful tonight 🙂

  9. Coming home from work late this past evening and lots of icy spots on the sidewalks in spite of the air temp at 39F!

    1. There’s definitely more snow on the ground here than where you are. I’m not sure if you’ll be bare ground by tomorrow though, I’d say still a couple inches of snowcover will be left, by standard definition.

      The official time of measurement for snowcover, by the way, is 7AM.

    1. Agree. Midweek has more potential than tomorrow night, which would be a rapidly moving wave on the front, at best.

  13. In Methuen had a “small melt” yesterday still can’t see over the piles on my driveway. And the ice rink melted, but by 730 pm last night rink was frozen again (obviously not solid). Only in New England….

  14. NWS really pitching mid-week snow threat.

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/t1/1897903_580017548759287_240423199_n.png

    Looking at models I am currently Unimpressed and underwhelmed. I know
    there is time for things to come together, I am just no liking what I am seeing right now.

    I suppose it’s better to see not much of anything and have it come together, rather than seeing a potent storm at the benchmark that goes poof. 😀

  16. Good morning, everything we do today is outside, it’s beautiful, the models r easing on that cold which is nice, we have about 3-5 inches on ground, the rest will melt today, if not today certainly tomorrow, personally not impressed by next weeks possible event, don’t worry about more snow, enjoy the beautiful weekend!!!!!! 🙂 good day!!

  17. Might be the most impressive snow melt I’ve ever seen, idk, I had 16.4 inches 72hrs ago, I have 4 inches lol crazy!!!

  18. Snow melt is happening quickly all over. Last night was a treat with the thunder storms. Some of the mets are saying the storm Wednesday will be “the big one”. On a side note I saw a 6 legged flying insect last night at the back door, that is a first for me in February for sure. Enjoy the sun and warmth this weekend.

    Cheerio, Merlin

  19. This Wednesday would have been my dads 100th birthday. He darn near lived in the mountains, loved the snow and skiing was his life. I think a major storm would be a very fitting birthday present from mom nature …… Perhaps with a bit of a hand from my dad 🙂

      1. TK, do u know how they come up with these maps? Do they rely on various reports from the areas and extrapolate those out into a map? I can confirm, in my yard anyways, that map is inaccurate for my area. Not by much, but I have about 4″ less than it says. Maybe if i took the average of everyone’s yard on my street i might come up with a foot, but i doubt it.

        1. They rely on observations from official climate stations. The problem is, there are not as many of them as there used to be that measure snow on a regular basis.

          I am one of those stations, but one of the only ones inside 128, unfortunately.

  21. As of 10:30am i have an average of 8″ in the back yard. Lowest was 3″ (below the dryer vent) and 12″ behind the shed. Thats impressive considering after the last storm i had about 20″ everywhere. No bare ground yet but today might take care of that.

  22. We just had large sheets of ice slip off the rubber roof we had put in last summer. Made enough noise that we thought the roof was giving way.

  25. I am home for the week due to my college’s February break, which means I’ll be watching the Wednesday storm threat like a hawk. High amplitude flow would favor Euro’s solution.

      1. I think we get something from the mid week system. As I said yesterday no matter what happens looks to be a progressive system with no blocking with the NAO positive.

  26. Yeah idk tk, it’s weird sometimes it right, sometimes it wrong, I’m down to 2-4 inches and melting super fast, some patches of grasss now apoearing in all sun and under trees, it will be interesting seeing the snowmap again tommorrow, nevertheless very impressive snow melt to say the least, now if we do and I think we will receive some snow, we don’t have 3ft on the ground lol, anyways heading to Hyannis for the half marathon, I think Joshua gonna take pics to which will be interesting. Anyways good day

    1. If it’s 2-4 now, you’ll still have 1-2 by 7AM and not technically bare ground by official snowcover time on Sunday. But by the end of the day, perhaps you’ll be seeing patches of bare ground in places there are still a few inches today.

  27. Charlie, It is going to take a while before this melts down to spotty grass here in Mansfield . 10 inches here. Charlie, how deep is the snow pack now really?

    1. I’m not at 2-4 at my house in North Attleboro. Just took the dog for a long walk and most areas still 6 or greater.

  28. Loving the brief Wintermission today, it’s 50 outside! Although the
    Air is warm, I can feel the cold come off the snow,
    Creating refrigerated air. If we didn’t have the
    Snow cover, could it be realistic to think it could
    Have made it to 60?

      1. Thanks , TK! That’s what I thought 🙂 It’s funny you mentioned Nashville in an earlier post, I’ve been trying to get a job there and went for an interview back in November. It snowed on one of the days I was there – just a quick coating. Close friends moved down there for a job (same company I’m trying to get into), and they, being born and bred New Englanders like me, are so homesick for snow. It was 75 the other day and my friends were in a tornado warning area. It was frightening. The people down there said this winter has been abnormally cold, and that they really don’t get enough snow to warrant a snowblower.

  29. 3 potential snowstorms showing up on the 12z ECMWF today.
    I’m not saying these are a sure bet, but we should pay attention.
    This weekend is the classic “lull them into a false sense of security” type weather pattern.

    😉

    1. It’s doing it to me. The only thing that keeps me from totally being lulled is your
      warning not to be. I keep looking and waiting for something to show. 😀

  30. A solid foot on the ground in Woburn still – maybe down to 11 by this evening, but no lower than that.

  31. Daffodils are just breaking ground on south side of our house. 🙂

    And a solid foot of snow remains here

        1. You can count on it! That’s when it will go negative big time. Cool, raw, damp NE flow for weeks on end.
          I can seeing it coming now.

  33. What is amazing snowfall above normal for major cities in the Northeast with a mostly positive NAO all winter.

    1. I’ve always said a +NAO is no guarantee of a crap winter, from a snowlover’s point of view. 🙂

  34. i do not understand why news stations are still saying there is still a good size storm possible when all the models have it going well to the south and east.

    1. Sometimes, all models can be missing something.
      I wouldn’t take that threat off the table yet. 🙂

  35. would not be surprised if charlie actually has 5 inches or so. i have only about 10 inches where no one has stepped or played in. about 4 or 6 inches where we have been playing. so its possible i know the northwest section of town has more than a foot still because they are shelterd from the south winds. maybe he has no shelter to the south so his yard melted quicker

  36. Thanks TK! LOVE your title 😀

    I am surprised the Polar Vortex is “taking up residence” because a lot of places have “No Vacancy” signs up this time of year 😉

    1. Just wait til Summer. There will be lots of No Vacancy signs around .. but probably no visits from the PV. 😛

  37. SO all of a sudden, Sunday night/Monday morning is going to produce some snow
    after it looked like a no go. crazy around here. 😀

  38. In Hyannis for the half marathon, a very nice night slight breeze but low 40’s, there’s very little snow here, just piles no actual real snow depth. Should be an ok day tommorrow.

  39. From NWS Upton, NY. I guess they are firmly in the Euro camp. 😀

    AS THE PV DESCENDS INTO ONTARIO MID WEEK…A POTENT MID LEVEL
    SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT…AND THEN PASS OHD ON WED. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL INITIATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT…WITH AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PASSING JUST SE OF 40N/70W PER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE ECMWF…CLOSE ENOUGH TO DELIVER AT LEAST A MEDIUM IMPACT SNOWFALL. MESOSCALE FACTORS SUCH AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH VIA INTERACTION OF THE SFC LOW WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS…AND POSSIBLE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS IN
    THE COLD AIR MASS…COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND.

    Notice that they mention our old friend, the Forlorn trough. 😀 😀 😀

    1. And from our friends at Taunton NWS:

      WEDNESDAY…A LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW THIS STORM MAKES ITS WAY UP THE COAST. ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE…WHERE THE GFS/GEFS/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLES TAKE A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. THE GFS STILL HAS OUR REGION GETTING HIT WITH
      AT LEAST SOME SNOW FROM A NORLUN TROUGH…AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. ALSO… THIS LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE GETTING ENHANCEMENT FROM A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK…AS WELL AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER ECMWF AND WPC SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD.

  40. I have another layman’s question, if someone can answer. So often I read here, “Ignore that run,” or “the Nam isn’t reliable in this instance,” etc., so it seems as if the earlier charts don’t always show the end result, and what you are actually looking for is consensus, is that right? So I guess my question is, how early is too early to look at the runs for what will really happen? For years I have looked at Accuweather for my specific city’s upcoming weather. I have noticed there, too, that they may show a storm 4-5 days in advance (and I’m just about ready to go out and buy the milk and bread), but if I wait long enough, very often the storm disappears from the chart, and they show sun instead. Do they show the snowstorm after a percentage of likelihood, like 30 percent? Sorry for being so simplistic, but I’d really like to know more about weather prediction. Thanks!

    1. There are so many outcomes possible and so many variables involved regarding even one model, let alone a dozen of them. There is no real solid “safe time” to start trusting them. Every situation is different so it’s a matter of observing model forecast to actual weather over time and learning model biases, etc.

      1. It seems from reading here that their biases are not consistent. Some seem to handle the seasonal weather events differently …..not from each other but from themselves

  41. Others may answer differently, but here’s my take:

    Computer models are very very very sophisticated computer programs that
    simulate the earth’s atmosphere. At run time the program is fed all of the current data (initialized) and the program runs and depending on the model spits out all sorts of charts for various intervals into the future. Some go a few days, while other go out a couple of weeks and others in between. When a model predicts a storm 5 days out, it is based on “current” conditions. Also, the models may not “simulate” the atmosphere perfectly given the data fed in. With subsequent runs with “NEW” data, the results might be different.

    Given that, some models are decent looking ahead while others are only good
    a few days out. We have to sort through all of that before deciding whether
    an advertised event is real or not. Then there is other stuff as well, like
    the “energy” responsible for a storm might still be out in the Pacific at run time
    and not sampled well for data input etc etc. Then there is a split jet where some
    models handle it better than others.

    very very very complicated business. It’s amazing the models do as well as they
    do. Sure they let us down, but it is quite a Scientific accomplishment.

    I begin to ramble. Don’t know IF I answered, or just muddied the issue for you.
    😀

  43. I went to Providence a day early and discovered that the snow pack is alive and kicking, but barely. And that holds for Attleboro, too. I’m just guessing from my drive by North and South Attleboro on I-95. In Providence, I’d say anywhere between 2 and perhaps 5 inches in shady spots. Charlie’s consistent bare ground won’t show except for most of the Cape and the Islands, and most of RI’s coast. Notice what Charlie said about the temp in Hyannis today – cooler than Boston and the interior. An early spring indicator, as the SW flow over relatively cold water cools off CC and the Islands, and warms up the rest of Massachusetts. Returning to Boston this evening I noted a depleted snow pack of anywhere between 2 and 6 inches. Some bare spots have appeared, and the snow banks have all but shrunk away for the most part. Now, one thing I disagree with Charlie about is the speed with which this snow pack disappeared. I did not find it particularly dramatic, given that we’re in late February. We’ve held on to a snow pack for the longest period since 2011. And, our two blizzards last year truly vanished in an eye blink. In both cases, almost all the snow was gone within a few days.

  44. Channel five just posted on fb that snow is likely on Wednesday beginning around 7 am and ending around midnight.

  45. Well tonight into tomorrow places south of the Pike will be lucky to get an inch.
    Mid week I still think we get something from that storm system but I would favor a glancing blow rather than a direct hit. It still needs to be watched closely.

  46. Craziness…

    For tonight/tomorrow morning

    First it’s snow, then none, then it’s 2-3 inches, and again it’s NONE!!

    re: Wednesday??????????

    So far, not looking like much of anything. Any snow, if any, comes from a weak
    inverted trough. Running out of time for that one imo. 😀

    1. From TWC:

      The upper-level disturbance that is expected to spawn this area of surface low pressure is more than 3,000 miles away over the Beaufort Sea, located north of Canada’s Yukon and Northwest Territories

      I’m trying to locate this piece of “energy”. Where is it?

      Here is the 500MB map for 4 AM this morning:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=003&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_003_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140223+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=

      I presume it is that blob In the middle, very top of the map??????

  48. The only thing I can say about Wednesday is that the ensemble mean
    is closer to the coast than the operational runs. IMO, this is not yet resolved. 😀 😀

    1. I guess this sums it up from Taunton NWS office:

      GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE…THE EVOLVING HIGH
      AMPLITUDE PATTERN AND POLAR ORIGINS OF JET ENERGY WE CAN/T RULE OUT A SHARPER TROUGH WITH A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS HAS BEEN A MODEL TREND MUCH OF THIS WINTER IN THIS TIME RANGE OF DAYS 3- 5. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL PLAY THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH YIELDING A RISK OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL
      WED.

      THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FORCING TO INDUCE AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE OCEAN LOW BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE RISK OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

    1. Hope everyone is enjoying the beautiful day 🙂
      Snow looks likely at this point for Wed, early guess 3-5,,, this 1 inch or less snow event late tonight and tommorrow am is basically a nonevent. 🙂

  55. Euro weeklies look COLD through the next 4 weeks (thru March 23) along with a pretty active pattern. Anyone looking for an early Spring this year is probably going to be disappointed!

    Not giving up on the midweek threat yet. Still think the pattern could support a more amped system closer to the coast like a few of the GFS and Euro ensembles have been showing. The piece of energy responsible for this system is still diving out the Arctic in a poorly sampled area. It will probably be at least another 24 hours before the models converge on a solution.

    I am liking the potential for the 3/1 and 3/4 storm threats down the road. No way we are escaping the next 10 days without more snow, not in this pattern!

    2. This won’t be March 2012 where it was way above normal and I think for the second straight March there will be accumulating snowfall.

  56. Well, 12z Euro took a step in the wrong direction for Wednesday. A little weaker and further east, but still a light snow event for SNE with a few inches.

  57. I’m calling shenanigans on this Wednesday event. Too suppressed, doesn’t get close enough for any significant impact.

    I’m far more interested in the two potentials for the first week of March.

  58. 12z Euro on board with the weekend coastal storm. Widespread snow event Saturday/Saturday night for most of New England. The storm really bombs out (sorry) after it passes by. 850mb temps drop below -25C in the storm’s wake on Sunday. WOW! March in like a lion if this verifies.

  59. Nasty Sunday one week from today with blowing snow and frigid wind chills if this verifies:

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=229092

    Euro has the snowstorm on 3/4 as well:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014022312&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014022312&region=USA&var=TMP_850mb&hour=216

    Pattern looks great for first 10 days of March if you like winter with big ridging out west and split flow.

  61. So much for Terry’s (WBZ) “pattern change” statement, suggesting winter was over and that we wouldn’t see any more snow or cold. He made this statement about a week ago. Really looks foolish now. Of course, people’s memories are not great. My biggest issue with statements like these is they sound naive. This is New England. Spring always takes a while to get here, and sometimes doesn’t even show up at the party. To declare winter over based on a brief lull in the action is ludicrous.

  62. The meltdown continues, patchy grass patchy snowcover, I’d say 60% grass 40% snow here, 8 days till the beginning of the year for turf diagnostic, 145 clients in the Newport,Jamestown,Kingston,E.Greenwich areas March 3rd-10th, we always start in these areas as it doesn’t often snow there after the beginning of March, and if it does its actually just an inch or 2, and that’s actually perfect. Good day all 🙂

  63. Just measured 13″ in my backyard in North Coventry, CT, down from its highest depth of 22″ Wed AM. There’s still 8-9″ in the front where there is constant sun exposure. I’m surprised more didn’t melt. Despite the cloud cover, our high was actually warmer here today (49) than it was yesterday (45). Less snow melt today though with the cloud cover.

  65. Charlie, you can indeed start your work in places like Jamestown and Newport as there’s (virtually) no snow left there. I saw the local Providence news and they were reporting a fire in Jamestown, RI. No snow on the ground at all. My guess is that any snow they get from here on out will disappear very quickly. Different story for us Northerners who don’t reside in the tropical paradise of Rhode Island.

    1. Wouldn’t be so sure about that Joshua. With snow threats on 3/1 and 3/4 and an anomalous cold pattern setting up for the first week of March, I would not be planning lawn applications if I owned a landscaping company, even in the tropics of Rhode Island. That said, if the snow really is virtually all gone in that area, then this upcoming week would be better to do it. I see white, not green, the first week of March.

  66. euro seems to be the only one showing thest storms actually giving us some snow wednesday but none of the others do.
    the one next weekend looks iffy as well with only 2 models showing it affecting the region

    1. GFS has it too, although weaker and more off shore. It also has the Mar 4 storm with a similar look to the Euro. We’re never going to get model agreement this far out, but pattern and setup look good.

  67. North-central Florida seemed to have an interesting day today with thunderstorms ….

    With the sun angle now, I can tolerate more cold ……… hoping to continue the short term trend of backing away from snow events. We have certainly paid our winter dues since early to mid December.

  68. Hoping to have The Week Ahead out sometime this hour.

    Not much tonight, if anything.
    Not much Wednesday.

    Better potential next weekend – way too early for details of course.

    Cold will be the story this week.

  69. This week will be below normal temp wise, midweek next week the cold does ease, there r a few chances for snow, a few inches is ok bc it only takes a day to melt , but it usually does not happen. It’s a different weather code than my clients in uxbridge where I had a customer today tell me there’s 8-10 inches of snow in his yard, but don’t start there till usually late March, like I’ve said it’s always stressful starting the season, this yr will be no different. We shall see 🙂

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