Too Cold To Snow?

137 Comments

10:34PM

Before you scoff at my title… I know it can’t be too cold to snow. What I am alluding to is that we’ll have a cold, northern jet stream dominated pattern for the remainder of this week, keeping significant snow threats away and only producing some minor snow shower events as disturbances in the northern jet stream pass through the region. A series of these will move through during the next few days, with a break Friday and then another minor system possible on Saturday. There is some chance of a more significant storm early next week, but enough uncertainty that this is the only mention it’s going to get right now. What continues to be the certainty is the colder than normal temperatures.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated light snow showers. Highs 25-30. wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then partly cloudy. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers late. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-13. Highs 19-27.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers. Lows 9-17. Highs 20-28.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-16. Highs 20-28.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows 10-18. Highs 22-30.

137 thoughts on “Too Cold To Snow?”

  2. I guess the March 4th-5th event is not going away. It is over a week away, but never seems to disappear.

  4. Many thanks TK.

    GEEZ, just looked at Wundermap for the EURO!(@#(!*()#&!*&@#*&!*@#&*!&(*@#

    For Monday 3/3, it has a system track over SE Mass, giving the Boston area
    a big slug of RAIN!!! I know it’s still 6 days out and subject to change, but that
    is PATHETIC!!!!! All that has been advertised is the COLD, yet it still wants
    to RAIN!!! GIMMIE A BREAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    BUT here is some eye candy for later, another fantasy storm for sure, but here
    it is, compliments of the CANADIAN:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  5. Unfortunately, from my perspective ….. if the snow chances dont materialize in the short term, I think this particular year offers them later in March and into early April.

    A couple reasons ….

    1) Persistence of the pattern

    2) Big time ice cover on the Great Lakes and the Northumberland Strait (Prince Edward Island, northward). The western US is in bigtime drought. Thus, if I had to guess, its got to be a west coast ridge and east coast trof that are going to continue to be the dominant pattern for many weeks to come. Thus, I’d think below normal temps are likely and depending on the setup and depth of the trof, potential precip events along the east coast.

    1. This morning on the news they said the Great Lakes r 71% covered, and again they said that hasn’t happened since 1976, almost 40yrs ago

  6. Good morning, wow!! Models r really laying off on the snow and now it’s looks like rain, out and about its not to bad, low last night was 17.7 degrees, not as cold as anticipated, 21.2 degrees now, heading to John Deere spring meeting at 9am. Good day!! 🙂

  7. I love the line in today’s Taunton AFD regarding the Monday-Tuesday event-“Even the ECMWF has run to run wobbles” Really guys? It has been wobbling for six months, yet the addiction to models and the wayward confusion that ensues when they conflict is epidemic among forecasters and now the general public. Would love to see these guys forecast off of a model suite of NGM/ETA/AVN MOS products, some DIFAX and surface analysis charts….

    Regarding next Monday-Tuesday, I continue to have problems with ECMWF OP handling of pacific low pressure systems, western ridging and its creation of potential SE ridging and how that plays into sensible weather outcomes for SNE.

    I see the GFS and ECMWF offer between 0.5 and 1.0 QPF for that time frame. So both have a moderate to marginally heavy QPF event. ECMWF is more robust with the QPF over SNE, because it is further north and longer in duration close to a 30 hour storm, yet it never gets that intense with the storm bottoming out around 1004mb. There will be high pressure settling over SNE on prior to Sunday, which would signal to me a later onset than advertised by the ECMWF, as the ECMWF has a lot of overrunning precip. The ECMWF then suddenly warms 850 temps above freezing at Hartford, Providence, Boston, Worcester, and Springfield for at least some of the storm, while hinting at a weak SE Ridge forming. I would side with a colder, weaker, shorter duration GFS for now as it seems to recognize the strength of the high pressure in place prior to the storm and the split and speed of the zonal flow.

  8. Bottom line to all of that – Potential for some disturbed weather on Monday into Tuesday in most parts of SNE. I would lean away from the potential of a devastating storm for 100 million people….

  10. Matt Noyes tweet

    @MattNoyesNECN: Next Monday – early to say, but am leaning toward mostly snow for New England. RT @ehannan73: meaning snow? Everywhere?

  11. I get hadi, u want it to snow, or have something to track, most new englanders r sick to there stomach to here someone say more snow, it’s New England I get it, but to root or go around and post what says snow or more snow is similar to me rooting on spring, and finding models or tweets that say less snow, or less snow. We crack each other up I guess. Lol

    1. Agree Charlie. Not sure why it’s fine to root for snow around or after Thanksgiving (a month before winter), but wanting no snow a month before Spring is frowned upon. Can’t have it both ways.

    2. I’m really confused. Is Hadi not supposed to post when snow is predicted? Isn’t that exactly what this blog is about/for?? Also, how does posting a potential weather event equate to rooting for it? AND, with all due respect, Charlie, it is New England….it snows in New England….complaining ain’t gonna stop it 🙂 Hoping for it ain’t gonna start it. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

      1. I second what Vicki just said. And if I am not mistaken I believe Hadi himself even said this past weekend’s weather has him looking forward to spring now.

  12. For next week, I will go with a delayed arrival and we will probably see a little more snow than rain, but I don’t see it being an intense storm. Of course, it’s a week away and maybe will go OTS, poof or something else. Though I like my snow storms, I have grown a little tired of this winter so a poof solution works for me right now.

  13. Heading up to Killington on 3/7 so i for one would love for it to snow blitz all over NE before and during that timeframe 😀

  14. JMA,

    Many thanks for your analysis. Always appreciated.

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

  17. Both GFS and Euro ensembles are south and more suppressed with their solutions compared to the operational runs which would lend some support for the colder/snowier solution.

  18. Thank you TK – I was kind of hoping for a storm tomorrow cause I thought it would be fitting but it is what it is 🙂

    1. It certainly would have been a nice way to honor your dad on his 100th birthday. Maybe he can pull some strings with Mother Nature from up there in heaven. 🙂

  19. It doesn’t matter what weather you root for.

    Mother Nature doesn’t give a shit what anyone thinks. 🙂

    1. Truer words were never spoken. 😆

      In fact, Mother Nature often has a sick sense of humor in
      what she throws our way.

  21. Charlie the reason I said you crack me up is that from the start of winter you call for rain on nearly every storm so it’s no different this time. I also did post that I am very much looking forward to warmer weather. The weather will do what it wants whether I want it or not 🙂

    1. I’ll go one further…

      I LOVE snow storms, even one in April or May.

      However, I can’t stand the very COLD weather.

      To me an ideal Winter day has a low of 23 and a high of 36. :LOL:

      So, unless it’s going to snow, SEND the cold stuff back to Canada where it
      belongs.

    1. lol, for sure, millions affected! What i dont understand is with the same fast pattern in the atmosphere we have had all winter, how such a long-duration event like this can occur.

  24. Will the 12Z euro follow suit is the question. I almost want it to just for today to shut up the hype machine. Guarantee they won’t post the snow map or even address it if it does

  25. Looked the 12Z GFS and don’t think it really has a handle on it. The GFS has presented the following solutions during the past week — OTS, poof and gone, inside runner, benchmark bomb, and now a slow far-to-the-east storm. Pick one!

    1. We will wake up Monday morning and look out the Window. It is then
      that we will know what is happening.

      This has been the absolute WORST WINTER for model performance
      and forecasting in general. ABYSMAL. What happened to the good old
      days when the Euro would show a storm 10 days out and IT HAPPENED!!!
      OR even 5 days out????????????????????????

      Gotta Love it.

      I’m beginning to think that the TREND will, in fact, be OUT TO SEA SOUTH
      of US! Would not surprise me one little bit.

      Dying to see today’s EURO version of the system, system who’s got the system. Come out Come out wherever you are! 😆

    2. I do not think this solution is out of the question. A strung out system with more of an overrunning event as opposed to one potent, concentrated storm system.

      1. Sure, it is certainly one of the possible outcomes.

        It could be a prolonged over running event, that eventually sets up South of us as well. Time will tell.

        Sure looks like something WILL happen, but the question is:
        Do we get in on the action or get denied.

  27. 12z GFS is an example of the strength of the PV. The piece of energy coming out the Plains that was going to be responsible for our Saturday system hits it and just disintegrates into mincemeat before it gets here. Then the Monday system comes out of the Plains, tries to amplify into a larger storm system, but runs into the PV and just gets shunted south and strung out into a long but not particularly heavy overrunning event. It’s certainly plausible this could happen.

  28. Anything can happen, I just happen to favor a further south, lighter QPF event, that would be of a shorter duration than currently modeled. Light snow falling for 72 hours in March with daytime temps in the 30’s and borderline 850 temps and critical thickness levels. That would create a interesting forecast scenario in the urban areas. I can see some wild snowfall forecast variations…

    1. JMA, I can see why you would say that. The only thing I can see other than that is a bit of a cold air retreat and a storm that comes a little/not much closer. Right now I am tired of winter will gladly accept an OTS solution.

      1. Looks like it 🙂 Hard to tell with these asinine 24hr increments, but looks like it passes well south of the region and weak too

        1. Music to my ears.

          I am ready to start blogging about it being 60F in Springfield, MA and 40F at Logan due to a seabreeze and thunderstorm potential in warm sectors and whether the dewpoints will be 60F or 70F …..

          OK, I know I’m getting carried away.

        2. Go to eurowx.com and sign up for the free trial. It’s worth it! They don’t ask for any credit card info and it takes 60 sec to sign up.

  30. Not quite Ace…. It’s actually a big hit for SNE. Eurowx.com snow maps show widespread 12-15″ across SNE. That said, it’s a definite jog south from the 0z run.

    2. Aw crap, how does that happen?? It looks so benign on the map and moving quickly. Not that I dont trust some model output sites, but theres so many that offer snow maps that differ quite a bit.

      1. It’s not so much about the strength and location of the low center with this system. It’s more like a big overrunning event and the precip shield is much further north.

        1. Ahh, i gotcha now. Instantweathermaps for all its glory doesnt show precip for the euro, so only going by the mean sea level pressure can be deceiving. Waiting for wundermaps to check this out

  31. Euro had a HUGE shift to the South.
    CMC is to the South.

    I think this thing is going to end up SOUTH of here when all is said and done.

    Euro as it is from the 12Z run gives SNE a pretty good hit.

    CMC not so much, more precip to the SOUTH.

    We shall see. Long way to go with this one.

      1. Yes, so what do you mean? Of course I saw that. I understand
        that this morning’s run shows a signifcant snowfall.

        ALL I am saying is that the trend is to the South and Despite
        what this morning’s run showed, I am thinking it ultimately
        ends up South of us. 😆

    1. Of course. It’s a real CRAP SHOOT this far out.

      I still think it ends up South. We’ll know soon enough.

  33. EURO has close to 1 inch qpf for Boston, its south but in a great location for big snows in SNE. Temps plenty cold and excellent ratios.

  36. FWIW the 12Z GFS also had about 9″ for boston for the event. Even still, euro is cranking out more qp than other models

  40. I’ll whisper when I say that it’s fun to have something to watch. I’m not rooting for it……just enjoying

    And OS – are you using reverse psychology on Mother Nature? I won’t say a word if you are 😉

    1. Frankly, I’m not impressed yet. Will I be? Who knows. We shall see.

      I’d like to see some consistency in the Euro. It’s been all over the place.

  42. I think the models for now “see” the cold air pushing down and pushes everything south, but I am not sure the models also “see” the possibility of cold air retreat. I’ll take an OTS solution, but my gut says the track could just as easily move a bit north and west.

      1. I doubt it now at this point that it will get any lower than 36F Tom but given that this cold may last for quite some time perhaps there is some room. Recent years hasn’t gone below 40.

  44. I think I’m a bit intrigued by Thursday ….

    Late February sun out in the morning ahead of a decent arctic front. Perhaps there could be some interesting cumulus clouds (certainly not tall summer ones, but cumulus clouds nonetheless) that day along with some heavy, convective snowshowers.

    While I’m not looking for a lot more snow, I would be interested to see something like that.

  45. If you get under one of those convective snowshowers (snowsqualls) you could get a quicking coating to an inch in a short amount of time. Just like thunderstorms in the summer not every town sees one while others get it.

  46. NWS also seems pretty bullish about the potential for some heavy snow showers dropping a quick inch, both tomorrow and Thursday.

  47. Confidence regarding Sunday-Monday-(Tuesday?) from the TV mets and NWS is increasing almost to the point of a certainty of a plowable storm. This blog appears the only entity not on board. 😉

    Keep doing it your way TK as always! 🙂

    1. I am on board. Don’t see us escaping the Sunday-Monday period without a plowable snow. I could still see a variety of solutions….direct hit, on the northern fringe, or a snow to mix scenario but the odds of an OTS/complete miss at this point? Not going to happen IMO.

    2. I am almost certain we get something that will require work to move. I just tend to keep details out of the “official” forecast, i.e., the one posted on the blog entry, until it’s closer. 🙂

  49. For the snow lovers….a major nor’easter depicted on the “most reliable model in the world” for late next week:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=228&fixhh=1&hh=240

    This storm threat appears on the Euro and GFS as well, though off shore.

    All in all between these two storms, the Canadian drops 25″+ snow from PHI to BOS next week.

    I need to start my own “weather hype” page and see how many hits I can get 🙂

    1. I’m not buying it, 1st it’s the Canadian, 2nd it’s still far away, I’ve seen time and time again where these r not in stone, and probably as soon as tommorrow, it will be a different tune, we shall see mark 🙂

      1. Not saying I buy it either, just reporting the model output. But late next week will be another potential period to “watch”

    2. I am not surprised at that model run Mark. The NWS Discussion is already hinting at more storminess soon after the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe.

      I wonder if we see bare ground by Easter (April 20th)? 😉

  50. Charlie, how many lawn applications have you scheduled for next week?

    If Tru Green showed up at my house Monday, I’d fire them! 🙂

    1. You would be surprised Mark, I’m not tru green that’s for sure, we will have a team of 7 going down south of Providence starting next week, we’ve called every single customer to talk and schedule, I’ve actually had a handful of my customers call from Jamestown ri waiting for there lime apps. For the customers that prefer to wait, no problem, I usually start anywheres between late Feb and mid to late March, we will be in the Boston area late March, 3-4 wks.

      1. Makes sense, but I trust you cannot apply lime if there are 6″ of snow on the ground? Potential is there for that to occur right down to the south coast.

    3. I should have all 754 clients finished with 1st visits by April 1st, at that time Fertilizer/crabgrass reducers will start being applied

  51. I see that this winter so far, is around the 60th coldest since record keeping began, I think for Logan.

    But ….. Myself included, with all the talk of a long, tough winter …… I think its reasonable to have called this a very cold winter because of what we’ve been used to lately. Relatively speaking, while there’s been a fair amount of snow generally over the last many years, there hasnt been this frequency of cold.

    Also, if I’m correct, each winter month has possessed a few excessively mild days within it that have helped the overall monthly avg not be too below normal, but I think its masked that the majority of days within each month have certainly avg’d more than 1F below normal.

    1. For instance in January, there was the 11th thru the 15th, all having double digit poitive anomalies …. but, Jan had 10 out of 31 days with double digit negative anomalies ……

        1. I agree :), but am not sure many, if any see 32F for at least another week and I think or perceive thats why its seemed so cold. Many, many stretches of impressive chill this cold season.

  52. Since Nov 24th, 2013 ….. When it made it only to 31F ….. Including that day, Logan has had 30 days of high temps that were under 32F.

    Its possible that we are about to string 6 or 7 more onto that total and that didnt count today.

    I kind of think eclipsing 90F in the summer and staying under 32F in the winter is comparable when we know that July’s high avg is 83F (7F difference), while January’s coldest avg is 36F (5F difference if you stay under 32F).

    We have a shot at 40 days at Logan not making 32F.

    Thus, I wish for AT LEAST 30 (90F +) days this summer as equal time for us warm season fans. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Spring to me is sunny days, the sun angle is equivalent to Oct 14th, so even when it’s 30 degrees out, it really doesn’t feel as cold as if the sun angle was like in dec or jan, if that makes any sense 🙂

  53. I wanna be sure I’m clear, it’s not easy starting the year in New England, it never is bc of the crappy weather, but we start at this time of yr for many many many yrs, and unless there’s a freak anomonaly snowstorm and cold we start around the same time. Many many times it will snow in Norwood 3 inches, and nothing south quite frequently, I only become concerned if a snowstorm comes drops a foot of snow in Jamestown and then it doesn’t melt, I’m not getting away with anything, it’s the same every year. Tru green has been out since Monday, I only know this bc I saw them working in Wareham on Friday, there were still snow piles there, doesn’t look very good imo. Have a good night 🙂

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