Sun & Snow

209 Comments

10:26PM

A cold weather pattern has returned and our weather for the last few days of February will be dominated by the northern jet stream, sending a couple more disturbances through the region with episodic snow showers during midweek followed by a sunny day on Friday.

As March gets underway, we’ll see a battle zone setting up again as a broad ridge of high pressure sets up over the far southeastern US and forces the subtropical (southern) jet stream further north, adding more moisture to the  mix, while a trough in the northern jet stream tries to hold in place over southern Canada and the northeastern US. The battle zone will include southeastern New England, which will end up with a 4-day stretch of unsettled weather as a result.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Periods of snow showers through mid afternoon. Potential for a more organized line of snow showers and snow squalls late morning through early afternoon from west to east, which may deposit up to 1/2 inch of snow. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Periods of snow showers with again a risk of a few squalls. Highs 25-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 8. High 24.

SATURDAY: Clouding up. Chance of snow PM. Low 16. High 28.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Low 22. High 30.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow late. Low 16. High 32.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

209 thoughts on “Sun & Snow”

  1. Thanks TK. Tom, looks like the normal amount of days in a year with a max of 32 or below is 27. For March it is 2.1 days.

    1. Thanks North ! Wow, 27 …. we’ve really undershot the last many winters, I’ll try to get some totals later today to see shat it has been.

  3. Hahahaha when you said that in March “we’ll see a battle zone setting up again ” I pictured and army of leprechauns 😉

    I hope the snow won’t be too bad during my commute to school tomorrow :/

      1. It probably won’t be doing much of anything when you commute. And it will be over before you commute back. 🙂

    1. Models still not quite sure how to handle things IMHO. The Euro may have had 2 somewhat consistent runs, but I am not sure that we won’t see another half dozen changes by the weekend.

  8. I’m sad to say I’m not that confident.

    My concerns:

    1. Flatter, weaker.
    2. Strung out. We make get over 6″ but spread out over days – not impressive to me.
    3. Strong high squishing this thing.

    Not feeling it still.

      1. Plenty God knows.

        Just looking at how zonal the flow is and will be has me suspicious. Add in a strong high and I’m going to keep a lid on my excitement.

        1. I agree retrac, the upper levels and what the models are spitting out at the surface dont match up. No turns or dips in the atmosphere.

    2. Personally, I don’t know what to make of it all.

      Yesterday I was saying that it might end up South of us. Not really looking that way now.

      Even the low depicted by the Euro is elongated, BUT it does crank out
      a bunch of qpf as does the CMC.

      CMC wants to give about 1.42 in QPF, however, it wants to RAIN
      For a good portion:

      .63 as rain
      .63 as SNOW
      .16 as sleet

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

      FIM version:

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014022600/236/3hap_sfc_f168.png

      And that would be RAIN in SNE:

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014022600/236/temp_850_f168.png

  10. So according to that map from NWS, the disturbance that will be our monday storm doesnt even reach the data rich west coast till Friday??
    1) that gives the models only 2 days to really figure out the details, not feeling good about that.
    2) the storm must be moving at lightning speed to enter and exit the US in less than 72hs.

  11. It looks like that SE ridge will be coming into play. How strong and where it sets up will have a big impact on the track, and we wont know that detail this far out, even the day of is difficult to forecast the strength and location of that ridge. I also dont see the high to the north in good positions on any of these model outputs.

  12. it was cold and windy last night on wachusett. went skiing .frozen grandular. they need some natural snow along with this to get the conditions they had before warm up back. though a freshly groome trail was the best run i think i had for a long time 🙂

  13. What is the NWS referring to when it says the Euro!s decent track record this season in today’s discussion? Has it really been that good????

    1. I’d say its been decent in the short term, but medium to long range it has been slow to pick up on trends. I’d consider 5 days out to be medium range.

  15. Matt Noyes used the word “probable” for a storm on monday. Ok, im sold, we dont need to look at any more models, this things coming 😉

    1. It’s coming. I think that looks like a good bet, however, what will be the
      precipitation type? Will the SE ridge win out and bring us rain? Will the
      Arctic air win out and push it out of here? Will there be a perfect balance such
      that warm moist air is supplied and forced up over the well-entrenched Arctic
      air giving us a significant snow event? The players are all assembled. Which
      players are in the game?

      When does the game start? Is in on NBC?

  16. Bernie Rayno tweet

    @AccuRayno: while the sun nt-mon storm will not be strong (low pres) it is going to have a tun of water.. big snows Midwest (i-70 on S). nw i-95 midatl

    1. I agree, qpf could be up there. WILL it be ALL snow here?
      AS I posted above, it concerns me that the CMC and the FIM indicate
      a slug of rain, of all things with this cold.

      I WANT to lean towards the Euro and GFS , as it seems to make the most sense, but I can’t get those other 2 out of my mind.

      4. Ahh, gotcha. I was just thinking in a more typical coastal storm situation, rain along the i-95 corridor in the mid-atlantic can sometimes yield rain or mix from prov to boston as well. This is looking like a completely different type of storm.

  17. The March storm we had last year that dropped 20+” in some places wasnt that strong either. I know totally different set-up, but similar idea?

    1. Sometimes these situations can be HUGE snow producers, especially
      with really cold arctic air with deep moisture laden GULF air riding
      up over it. Can be quite the SNOW machine. 😆

      We will have to wait and see how it all sets up.

      I wonder how much BUST potential this set up has?

    1. Agree, that is what makes the most sense, but this Winter has been so
      crazy, who knows.

      I’d certainly lean towards an all snow event, but that being said, it wouldn’t
      surprise me to see a mix with sleet/freezing rain, especially Southern and SE
      sections OR even a complete change the farther S & E one goes.

  19. Hadi,

    Would you mind posting the Euro snow map?
    I LOVE to look at that thing. AND of course, that is based on 10:1 ratio.
    With this event, ratios are going to be higher, something like 15:1, perhaps
    even as high as 20:1. 😆

  20. Here is our system at 7AM, according to the 12Z NAM:

    Surface:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_000_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    500MB:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_000_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    700MB

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_000_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    200MB

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_000_200_wnd_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=200_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

  22. From NWS this morning regarding Monday event:

    MUCH OF THIS DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE H85 LOW WHERE LIKELY DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE N/E QUADRANT COLLOCATED WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR BELT WILL YIELD POSSIBLE WEST-TO-EAST SNOW- BANDING /HAVENT WE SEEN THIS BEFORE?/. IN OTHER WORDS…LOOKING AT AN OVER-RUNNING SCENARIO. H85 TRACK WILL ALSO IMPACT THERMAL FIELDS AND WHETHER TRANSITION ZONES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED OR PERHAPS IF IT REMAINS ALL SNOW.

  23. Thanks tk, been up since 3am bc a truck delivery showed up at that time ugh, anyways, models r very unconfident in the track or precip type or amounts, and it’s tending to be shunted south a little everyday. Heading to Brown University at 11am, have a good day everyone, and think spring 🙂

  24. Current Boston Buoy water temp = 36.0F

    A due east wind should still keep snow for Boston…as long as it is not “too” strong.

    1. If intensity is there, really doesn’t matter how strong the wind is.
      With an elongated system, doubt wind would get too strong anyway.

    1. Thanks Hadi.

      So that is 9-12 inches in the Boston area at 10:1
      at 12:1 that is 11-14 inches
      at 15:1 that is 13-18 inches
      at 20:1 that is 18-24 inches

      1. The snow map on eurowx.com has pretty much all of SNE in 12-15″ with a bullseye of 15-18″ from Worcester SW into most of CT. I think it attempts to factor in the ratios.

        OS, go sign up for the free 7 day trial !!! If anything just to track this storm. You’ll like it – lots of cool maps. They just ask for your email to send you a code. No obligation and no credit card info req’d. The code just expires after 7 days. Takes 60 seconds to sign up.

            1. Got it.
              I see they have 6 hour increments up to
              96 hours, then they revert to 12 hour
              increments. Booo

              If I’m going to pay for a service, I want
              better than 12 hour increments.

              Now regarding the snow.

              You were talking about ONE 24 hour period. The next 24 hour period shows
              and additional 4-5 inches.

              Add it up and we are at:

              16-20 inches for this event.

              AND that is at 10:1!!!

              Imagaine 12:1, 15:1 or higher!

              YIKES

        3. Mark, whats the site address? Is it just the euro or do u have access to all other models and if so, do u have access to all the features or just the basic ones for the free trial?

            1. Sweet! I may do just that. Might wait till friday though to have access to maps for the potential storminess end of next week too.

        4. Just realized those accumulations I noted above were from yesterday’s 12z Euro. The 0z is a bit higher on my maps 🙂

        1. Ace, assuming no mixing and it stays all snow and
          we stay in the 20s, I’m guessing at least 12:1, perhaps
          as much as 15:1. 20:1 probably would be a stretch.

          This is just my guess. When we get in range, we can
          see what the SREF does with it.

  26. Something interesting. I want to demonstrate what happens to the Pacific energy
    for the “Monday” event when it comes on shore from 12Z NAM:

    48 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=048&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_048_500_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=500_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    60 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=060&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_060_500_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=500_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    72 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=072&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_072_500_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=500_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    84 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_084_500_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=500_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140226+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    WOW! A genuine disappearing act.

    Now, What will the effect be with our system? This is probably one contributing
    factor to it not winding up into a blockbuster intense storm and may be one
    of the reasons why it will be elongated along the frontal boundary.

    1. That was the eventual demise of every piece of energy that has come into the west. The storms that once looked so promising for today and saturday met their death once they crossed over the rockies and got demolished by the strong northern stream. I wonder whats making this one different.

  27. This storm scares me… due to the time of year, in Methuen we still have approx 8-10 inches on the ground, with huge snow piles everywhere. If we get 15 inches more now, you know a warm up will occur sooner or later, with spring rains, and we are looking at big trouble flooding (very similar to 2006) obviously we would have to get serious rains, but it wont take much to flood, with all this snow melting into the Merrimack/spicket rivers.

  28. I am curious as to what model Fox25 is using. Their seven-day forecast has snow eventually changing to rain in Boston with temps in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

    If anything, just last night Pete said that things are now trending colder. He did have raindrops on his forecast as well, but has long since taken them out.

    I don’t see any real changeover north of Plymouth at the most…and that may be a real stretch IMHO.

  29. This is the 156 hour snowmap from eurowx.com (thru Tues AM):
    http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k248/vertum1/Capture_zps7d93f784.jpg

    As OS mentioned, it shows widespread 15-21″ in SNE. Question is, why does the map Hadi posted above from accuweatherpro (for the exact same time period) show so much less snow (9-15″). I think the eurowx maps are actually attempting to factor in ratios while the pro maps use a 10:1. Don’t really trust any of them verbatim but they are pretty to look at!

  31. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 57s
    I *have,* however, mentioned since January I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flip in March to warmer times earlier than normal.

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 38s
    Looking at the pattern, I’m still not sure that conjecture will hold weight, but some long-range guidance does suggest that shift mid-March

  34. Different than the Euro in that it is still strung out and a 2 part system with the initial slug of precip Monday and a second area of low pressure brushing us Tuesday. End outcome as far as snow totals though is about the same. Wow.

  36. I can only imagine what the NAM will be spitting out for snow amounts when it gets within range. We may see some ridiculous numbers.

  39. Latest gfs run is hinting at a good amount of rain south and east of Boston, while west and north get lots of snow. Granted its the 12z

  40. Yes I’ve seen that, but when I look at the evolution of it, it starts snow changes to rain, and then shows the main accumulation after that, but Imo that last batch will go mainly south just grazing us, we shall see ds 🙂

    1. I disagree. If anything ends up going south then that is a signal that the storm with be COLDER, and perhaps weaker. Nothing to me about his particular run suggests a “good amount” of rain, IMHO.

  42. I have a feeling this thing will trend more south. Why do I think that? Because 2 major models show huge snows for us this far in advance! If course not a logical thinking. But this is like a fantasy having 2 models agree this advance thus it won’t happen. I hope I am wrong!

    1. I would say more times than not this winter, the euro has teased us showing major snows this far out, then loses them or its nowhere near as significant, but the GFS on the other hand, has done a decent job IMO. If the GFS gets locked in on this solution, i think that would be a huge step toward high confidence in a major storm.

  43. OS, yup I did say it might move north and west from the current/previous track. Time will tell, but I am tired of this winter and would actually accept an OTS solution about now BUT it will probably turn into the nuclear snow bomb I mentioned early on. Ugh!

    The worst would be a gigantic mix of snow and rain.

    2. Not so fast my friend.

      RAIN is “possible” and needs to be watched carefully. Getting awfully close. 😀

  45. I love that 12z GFS run. Maybe this is the storm that will produce the first widespread double digit snowfall amounts across SNE. I am not sold on a big storm yet. I hope we get something.

  46. Has anyone had any snow squalls today?? Saw reports of a few along the immediate south coast and over the cape but nothing anywhere else.

      1. Shotime is that the same keyboard I use for snow ⛄️❄️ I can’t figure why some characters show up and some do not ⛅️⚡️

  49. Ummm
    12Z Euro is in. SHIFTS the axis of heavier snow more to the North!!!

    Still gives Boston 15-18 inches, but Southern VT gets 30 inches!!!!
    Introduces RAIN to Cape and Islands and even part of far South Shore.

    Marshfield about 8, Plymouth about 5 and 2 inches on the Cape.
    About 12 inches in Hingham.

    Who said it would trend South?

    It now looks to be trending NORTH!

    1. I like it, give it to southern VT. They have gotten the shaft on every snowstorm this winter. Heading there late next week!

  51. Euro is going to have its wobbles back and forth. Important thing is that it is still there and the system is loaded.

  52. OS, did you see the end of the Euro run? Wow. It’s got another loaded system moving right up the coast towards us for next Friday. No longer OTS. Looks similar to yesterday’s Canadian.

    1. Check that, it still goes SE of the benchmark and just grazes us but it is a bomb and MUCH closer to the coast.

  53. Mark, where’s the cutoff line of snow vs. mix/rain on that run for the euro? Is it right at boston? What is it showing for places like Norwood?

    2. Not as big of a jump as say NYC that went from 18+ down to about 6″ in one run. Again, only one run, but still something to keep in mind. Curious is subsequent GFS runs go with that shift as well.

  59. Thanks Mark. Not a big shift for Boston itself, but for areas just to the south its a huge shift warmer. Areas like NYC its an even more significant shift considering the actual shift in track was not all that significant. Wundermaps show a lot of boston’s snow coming in the form of ocean effect ahead of the push of heaviest snow from the west which was interesting.

  60. This reminds of that system we had back on Presidents’ Day weekend where the slighest shift made the difference as we saw with that system tracking a little further east then models indicated thus lower snow amounts for Boston area and higher for Cape and Islands closer to storm center. The same the thing will hold true here where the slighest shift north or south is going to have a big impact on snow amounts.

  62. I’m concerned about next week’s storm(s), given: a. the retreating cold; b. the possible strength of a SE ridge (that may kill our snow chances, though the further north you go the better) which coincides with receding cold; c. models are all over the place.

  63. Hmmmm.

    This is a bit of model mayhem (are we surprised??)

    My original concern was that the PV would retreat too quickly and this would be a warm event. Then models like the GFS started hinting that it might NOT retreat quickly enough, and a colder solution was on the table.

    Now, we’re back to square one. I don’t think models will have a clue until the energy is onshore. Let’s check in on say… Sunday??? 😉

    2. Charlie,

      There will be an event. The only Bust potential is a possible rain/snow line and where it sets up IF it ever does set up.

      I would say ODDS favor an all snow event with a smaller chance of rain. 😆

    1. Does the FIM take its data from a different time period? It always seems like its one model run behind the trends.

  66. APOLOGIES IN ADVANCE to anyone who may post but not see it show up, or if a new post does not get approved.

    All out spam-bot attack today. 1 spam message per second rolling in. It’s even stressing the server to the point of going down briefly. I need to get my techie to address this issue this week.

    The spam bots are even replying to people’s comments from months ago and using text that we’ve all typed to try to come up with sentences that make meteorological sense, in an attempt to fool me into thinking they are legit.

    I got news for ya, bots. It ain’t gonna work. 😛

    1. I tried to post when the site was briefly down and obviously could not. The site came right back up though.

      1. I had it go down then up again quickly 3 times while I was doing some system admin. It’s not happy right now.

        I’d love to twist the arm of the person who decided a spam bot was a good idea, until it looks like the top of a soft serve ice cream cone. Thanks!

    2. TK – that’s exactly what happened last Sunday to the word press site I manage for my business partner….the one I messaged you on FB about to see if it had happened to you. You probably figured it out, but you can stop the emails from being sent to you temporarily. That was the worst part. Otherwise, the word press firewall took care of it and so far no problems.

  67. TK, what are your thoughts at this stage of the game? I know u believe something will happen, but what type of solution would u lean more toward at this point?

  73. Has anyone seen the article appearing on CNN’s website today ? It is a time story on the smog in Beiging. The pictures of the smog are kind of scary. The smog is so thick, someone termed it nuclear winter.

  76. Less at this time of year impacts more …..

    1) snow removal budgets in many cities/towns are probably nearly or already busted.

    2) many school districts are closing in on June 30th already.

    3) many people’s will to deal with a snow event is probably extremely low.

    So … 8-10 or 6+ in mid January is probably a run of the mill event, but in early March and given this particular winter’s history …. May have a very big impact.

  77. Sorry Peeps. Put me in the Charlie Camp on this one. Very skeptical to say the least.

    6, 8, 10 inches spread out over 18 to 24 hours does not make for an exciting storm IMHO. Would be totally manageable IMHO. especially given the time of year.

    Not buying the Euro.

  78. 18z GFS still gives me a foot of snow down from 4 inches from 12z GFS.
    Progressive system so I don’t see a blockbuster. I do think we will get something from this ranging from a light to moderate snowfall.

    1. I like that snow map just as much as the next guy. Has a 12″ sliver right over my house.

      The flow just doesn’t seem right to me to get us there. Hope I’m wrong.

    3. Great Pic, OS! Thanks for sharing 🙂
      I remember that quite well, as I was living in South Yarmouth at the time.

  81. Too much is unknown to say one way or another. I think we need a little more time before saying bust, blockbuster etc…

  84. My son’s working in Madison, WI the next two days where it will be a balmy 3 degrees for the high and a low of -15 degrees! BRRRRR!

  85. Nam looks interesting in pre game time frame. This should be a decent dumping but the impact probably won’t be too bad.

    1. It’s a nice hit for a lot of people. Moisture laden system with benchmark track to the south of us. Plenty cold enough for all snow everywhere with 850mb 0C line down in southern PA and NJ. GFS is looking more like the Euro with each run – it has lost the idea of a long duration overrunning event and is focusing everything on one juiced up system coming through on Monday.

  87. 0z Euro maintains the theme. Track and precipitation look very similar to the Wed 12z run with axis of heaviest snow just north of us. Snow map looks identical. Freezing line makes it up to central CT, RI, and SE MA.

    Also still develops a potent coastal storm in the southeast later next week which moves northeast off the coast and just grazes us.

  91. Thanks OS for all the info above !!

    “As the days lengthen, the cold strengthens”

    Isnt this supposed to be a January proverb …… I think it still applies with 2 days to go til March ……..

  92. From NWS regarding Monday:

    THE COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND H8-6 CONVERGENCE/F-GEN FORCING OF THE WCB BENEATH STRONG REGIONS OF DIVERGENCE /RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET/ WILL YIELD DEEP-LAYER ASCENT THRU BETTER DENDRITIC SNOW-GROWTH REGIONS GENERATING ROUGHLY WEST-TO-EAST MESOSCALE SNOW- BANDING WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO ALSO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL FRONT AS WELL AS THE LONG-FETCH OF THE EASTERLY JET.

  93. Morning all!

    Updated the blog!

    I’ll be around more this afternoon to discuss it.

    Initial feeling is QPF 0.50-1.00 inch for the entire “snow period” from late Saturday through Tuesday with 0.40-0.80 for the meat of it Monday.

    Will nail down snow amounts in about 2 days, because there will be local effects and still have to work out ratios throughout the period……

    ….and make sure the ribbon of heaviest snow sets up where I think it may.

    Shifts both north or south are still possible.

    How’s THAT for certainty? 😀

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