Well, The Groundhog Was Right

348 Comments

7:15AM

It may be a fun tradition, but one can argue that our good old hole-dwelling friend was right on with his prediction of 6 more weeks of winter. We’re entrenched in a pattern more like the middle of winter than the end of it. We have plenty of cold and more snow in our future here in southeastern New England, and this is how I expect it to play out…

Low pressure passes north of the region later today, dragging an Arctic front through the region from west to east, setting off scattered snow showers and possibly a line or two of organized snow squalls. Snow or not, this front will reinforce the cold air over us, setting up a bright but very cold day for the last day of February on Friday.

Then March gets underway and things get interesting. A battle zone will set up as the Arctic cold continues to pressure down from eastern Canada with the northern jet stream, while the southern jet stream starts to lift northward through the southeastern US, all the while carrying some Gulf of Mexico moisture, and some energy from a storm system now entering the West Coast. This should result in an elongated area of low pressure and a swath of snow across the region, initially with scattered snow showers Saturday as the boundary sets up, then a prolonged snow threat from later Sunday into Tuesday. The peak of this snowy period is expected to be Monday. Significant snow amounts are possible, but it’s still a little early to pinpoint exactly what the amounts will be. By the middle of next week, this will all be pushing off to the east and yet another shot of very cold air is expected.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with scattered snow showers and a possible line or two of snow squalls. Any heavier snow showers/squalls may drop visibility to under 1 mile and produce a quick coating of snow. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-10 from rural areas to the coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 10s interior higher elevations to middle 20s South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Low 10. High 30.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Snow developing at night. Low 15. High 30.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely. Low 18. High 28.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 18. High 28.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.

348 thoughts on “Well, The Groundhog Was Right”

  2. Thanks TK.
    Hazardous weather outlook posted for all of SNE with the storm threat in the Sunday Night through Monday night timeframe.
    6z GFS still gives my area 11 inches of snow down an inch from 0z run. As I said yesterday I think will get something from this but I don’t see a blockbuster.

  8. Good morning everyone – enjoying a nice cold winter, does anyone have a season to date on where we stand for temps in BOS/WOR/PVD, etc.?

    1. Good to see. But, and there is always a but…..it can reverse just as quickly.

      I did read they are building (or thinking of) desalinization plants in CA. What took them so long? But (there is that but again), along with the water all ocean life etc is pulled in and it takes a fair amount of energy to run the plants. I read quickly so there may be things I missed.

      Either way, water prices will double in CA. In the future, it will not be limited to there.

      1. Just last night I was squawking about why the heck CA wouldn’t build desalinization plants for at least agriculture! I’ll have to seek out the article. Thanks for posting 🙂

        1. shotime – Mac was saying they can use sewer water for crops, etc. They need to start perfecting that also. No Idea why it’s taken so long but better late than never

  11. Many thanks for the update TK. When you say significant snow, all bloggers must
    listen.

    I anxiously await the 12Z runs of all models. It will be interesting to see what
    the NAM wants to spit out once it gets in range and it’s almost there.

    I’m hoping the office is closed on Monday, but not sure it starts early enough OR
    even if it starts earlier, the snow won’t be heavy enough in the morning to shut down the office. It may be more a question of an early closing. Will monitor carefully. 😀

    Regarding SNOW today, the latest HRRR run still wants to give us up to an inch. 😆

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2014022711/full/acsnw_sfc_f15.png

    So far, ALL quiet on the Western Front:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=5&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  12. I usually have some kind of a feel for a storm a few days out, but this one i have no clue anymore. It almost feels like there will be no storm at all. Strange feeling with this one.

  13. Today will be like tracking a line of thunderstorms with these snow showers and squalls. Some towns will get hit and could get a quick coating to an inch in short amount of time others will stay dry. One thing is for sure more cold air behind this front that will be responsible for the snow showers and squalls.

  14. French Toast Alert was moved to elevated based on the fact that Harvey said “chances are high” for plowable snow on Monday.

    1. I understand. Not totally “feeling” it myself. It sure LOOKS to be there.
      BUT…..
      NOTHING this year has ever turns out the way it looked, NOTHING.
      There’s always been some sort of wrinkle. Kicked too far off-shore, dry slot,
      warm layer aloft, you name it. Always something.

      What will it be this time????

      I guess that’s where many of us are with this one.

      let’s leave it at this:

      SO FAR, SO GOOD. (subject to change :lol:)

    2. Something just doesn’t feel right. In years past, if the euro and its ensembles showed a blockbuster several days out for 3+ runs in a row none of us would blink an eye even if the GFS was forecasting sunny and 70 degrees. The euro ruled. But now, i dont know. The GFS still gives most a good dumping of 9-12″ and ill take it. Most ive received this winter in one snowstorm was 10″ and if the GFS verified i would be close to that. I just cant jump on the big numbers the euro is showing yet.

  18. The models have turned this into basically a run of the mill snow event on Monday, there were plenty of talk about a big one, many really thought that this was the big one, go back and look at the previous comments on previous pages, I saw some saying 20 inches even some saying 25 inches, now whether this is just hoping for it, or really thinking that’s gonna happen is a different story. Anyways it certainly looks tamed down a bit, I see maybe a 3-6 inch snow event, it’s certainly not a 72 hr event. Good day all 🙂 think spring

    3. After last weekend im certainly thinking spring. I dont think anyone was predicting 20+” of snow, it was just what one run of one model, and yes, it has toned it down a little bit but not by much. Curious though ur analysis of a 3-6″ event. What is ur reasoning for those amounts? Rain/snow line issuses, too far south, not enough precip, etc.?

        1. Are u willing to BET on it? Double or nothing 😀 Over/under 6″ in north attleboro. I’ll take over and u take under?

      3. I think 85% of New England is always hoping for an early spring with not a lot of snow, yes they know its New England, still doesn’t make it anymore pleasant, yes I love New England, but these 4 month long winters r for the birds, I want my previous winter back. Enough of this Eskimo winter, good day am 🙂

          3. Go back to your dog, and go for a walk, we know u don’t have to deal with the snow except you and your dog looking out the window

  19. You could see clearly where the next cold front is with snow showers and squalls in the Great Lakes area. I almost typed showers and storms since this like tracking a line of those in the summer time. Will see what happens as the front progresses towards us this afternoon.

    1. I think the worst of the cold will be gone by mid March across the country but I wouldn’t declare winter over. Winter rarely
      goes out quietly and the way this winter has been I would not expect it to give up without a fight.

    1. That puts Boston right around 1 foot with areas to the S and SW 12-14 inches or so.

      I think that this shows the system suppressed just a little bit too far to
      the South. Guessing it will eventually pass to our South for sure, but
      not quite that far South.

      We shall see.

      Waiting on the Euro. 😀

  25. 12Z GFS shifts a little more south. Still keeps around the same amounts of snow with most areas getting between 9-12″ with more NYC through LI and into coastal CT and less north of rt 2 in MA

  30. 12z GFS pretty consistent showing around 11 12 inches for my area for early next week. I don’t want to see this continue southward trend.
    In the immediate future watching that line of snow showers and squalls. There is some instability out there that COULD produce a snow squall. The sun is out where I am and this feels like a summer afternoon waiting to see what happens with that line coming in from the west this afternoon.

  31. I am “modeled-out” on this one. I am still of the opinion that the models are not yet there with a final solution. I feel like saying it will be above a bust and below a blockbuster, but I’m not even comfortable with that.

    1. I hear u Longshot. Im not comfortable saying anything at this point. I do think we end up with 6+” but how much more is the question. Models wont have a handle on this till the weekend IMO, and even then, predicting the exact location of the jet stream and where this boundary sets up will be so difficult to pinpoint even the day of. It could set up anywhere from central NE all the way down to the DC with a very narrow area of max snowfall just to the north of there.

      1. Are you saying that we’re having another now-casting event this winter 🙂 Gee, what a surprise!
        It’s been a tough winter for our meteorologist friends, to say the least!

  32. Current Boston Buoy water temp is now at 35.6F! This is about as low as I have ever seen it. It will be interesting if it gets down one more degree (34F?) before it slowly climbs back up especially with more cold to continue through mid-March.

    I really can’t picture Boston Harbor getting down quite as low as 32F if it has ever occurred at all.

  33. Looks like BZ is on board for something. From Terry…

    “First, this looks to be a mainly all-snow event, plenty of cold air, certainly no precipitation-type issues for most of interior southern New England.
    The “brunt” of this storm will likely arrive during Monday morning and afternoon, mostly a daytime event….I would expect about 12-18 hours of storminess Monday, perhaps a few inches by the morning commute, a mess for the evening commute, and tapering off later Monday night. Six inches or more are a possibility and, at this point, 10 inches certainly doesn’t look like a stretch with this event. It’s still a bit early to detail where the heaviest snow will fall, but I would plan for and expect a widespread plowable snowfall.”

    2. I agree with his assessment of this storm. Though this is the same man that said winter was over 2 weeks ago and spring would be here by now.

      1. I don’t trust that guy in any way shape or form.
        Only 2 to be trusted at BZ are Barry and Eric. The rest,
        take with a grain of salt. Just my humble opinion. 😀

  35. Some pretty decent snow down on South Coast of RI. Not sure if this translates
    to the Boston area or not, but interesting none-the-less:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=5&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  37. This like all the storms we have had this winter will be progressive but has the POTENTIAL to bring several inches of snow should the current storm track hold.
    I don’t like the word significant for this POTENTIAL storm event. I think significant should be used when there widespread double digit snowfall are expected across the region.

    1. I agree JJ. Significant should be reserved for widespread 12”+.
      Original thinking was this storm would be a longer duration drawn out storm, but trends have been toward faster more potent shot of snow.

  38. Flurries just started here in Manchester, CT.

    I’ve always considered “significant” to mean 6 or more inches of snow which aligns with the NWS WSW criteria. If we go by NWS definition, this is likely a widespread significant event. If you consider double digits significant, then the jury is still out, but think there is a good chance we see double digits throughout at least some portion of SNE. We’ve got a big slug of moisture moving into a firmly established dome of cold air. The storm is progressive but also very expansive, so we still get the 12-18 hours of snow. Plenty of time to rack up accumulations whether you’re in the heaviest band of snow or not.

  39. No blocking with a positive NAO which has been the case all winter but as we have seen some of these storm systems have been quite potent and have dumped a good amount of snow.

    4. agree coastal – last couple of storms with 6-7 inches caused quite a bit of disruption as they arrived during rush hour

  42. 12z Canadian is weaker and south. In fact, the farthest south of any of the models now (a day or two after it was the model that was farthest N/W). I have no confidence with the “most reliable model” on the planet.

    GFS is the best bet right now as it splits the difference between the Euro and CMC.

  43. GFS ensemble mean a little more amped than the operational run but still a wide variety of solutions on the table amongst the individual members.

    Very interested to see the 12z Euro.

  44. I would say the euro is the choice as it’s been locked in for several runs with slight wobbles.

    Coastal I agree.

  48. It’s considerably more south on this run. Heaviest snow on south shore, virtually nothing north of the VT/NH border.

  50. Precip field is more strung out and not as expansive. PV holds strong and shunts the best dynamics south of us.

  52. Eurowx.com snow map is showing 6-10″ south of the CT/RI border and Taunton. 3-6″ rest of MA – more south, less towards the VT/NH border.

    1. Wow, much less. Did someone say the euro was consistent? Looks to me its the GFS thats been more locked in on this. Euro has had more than a few wobbles since 0Z a couple days ago, more like all out shifts.

  53. Has the euro for the most part this season shifted 4 to 5 days out only to correct itself as we got closer?

    1. The Euro corrects itself right up to the last day possible. I swear the Euro is a model that is best at forecasting 1 day ahead of time only.

    3. The Euro has been all over the place at this time range. The scenario being depicted now, 3-4 days out, is probably not going to be what actually happens. There will be more wobbling back and forth, but small wobbles have huge impacts on outcome as far as snow accumulations go.

  55. !@*$()JQDIS@J_)!@#*()@&#$&*(@~&$*(&#$!E&*()!^&*)@^E)&(~@Y(!~@()*+#*~@_$(*!~@#$)*(!@#&_!~@#*()!~#^*()&!~@#*()&*#*(^!~#^(!~#&()!~@#*!~#&*(#&*)(!~$^&*)@^$)@(*~#()!~$^!@$&!@()#*!~@_#_!~@#*(~!@#$&*($&!@*#$!~@)#$*~()!$&*(&@#(_!~#(!~@$()~@$&!~@$(!~@$*()!~@$&!_@($@()~&!@$&)!~$!~@$(!~@$()_!@$@&*()$&)(@$!~@()$&!)@$&()$&

    👿
    👿
    👿
    👿

    Why should I be surprised about the Euro.

    Hey, I was worried this morning when I saw ALL of those hints from the other
    models that seemed to be MORE clued in than the Euro. Now the KINg has spoken.

    You know what’s really intensely BAD about this?

    It makes CHARLIE look good!!!! 😆 😆 😆

    I GIVE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. The Euro has proved itself useless until the day before. It has gone from king to a one-day forecasting model.

      1. It at least had the right idea about this being one focused storm system centered around Monday as opposed to the 72 hour snow marathon the GFS was showing. It’s wobbling on track, as are the other models. Maybe we should cut it a little bit of slack on this one 🙂

  56. I wonder how the ensembles handle it. Mark and OS, does that site give u access to the ensembles and ensemble mean?

    1. Ensembles take awhile before they are ready. I’ll post the site IF I can find it.
      I have it book marked at home, but not at the office.

    2. Oh sorry, misunderstood. I just checked Eurowx.com

      As far as I can see, it’s operational runs ONLY.

      Sorry.

  58. Our friends on the Northeast Storm Center facebook page say all 12Z runs are garbage except for the GFS, lol

    1. AND what did they use for a basis for that? Curious?
      Did they throw darts? Toss the dice? Pick a card? how did they determine
      that? he he he

  60. The Storm is going out to see guys. Accuweather has us in the 6-12″ range and H.M. say southern New England could get over a foot.

  61. In all seriousness, perhaps the best outcome in the long-term is for the most precip to be confined to far southern New England.

    I dont think putting several inches more snow onto a fairly deep snowpack in central and northern New England …. then following that with more cold air to not allow a melt probably before March 10th ….

    I dont think its good heading into mid-late March with a region wide, deep snowpack. Thats increasing the chances for trouble if there’s a sudden pattern change to warmer.

    Far, far southern New England could handle a several inch snowfall with most snow depths 3 inches or less.

  64. Light snow here in Plymouth.

    That damn Euro better come back around because there is no way we can let Charlie be right!!!! 🙂

    1. Very potent coastal storm late next week on the Euro but also a very warm system. Taking the model verbatim, it would be rain if it tracked closer.

      1. 850MB temperature over Boston +8C with that run.
        What happened to all of the cold air?

        It’s staying OFF shore so far anyway.

  67. snow squalls moving through. Cool watching the snow move into my area over the marshland. then stop and see snow still falling in the marsh then the snow hits my hard again must have a half an inch of new snow in my back yard.

  68. Well, we received just a light coating with that first squall.
    On radar, looks to be another shorter duration one soon to arrive. 😆

  70. Absolutely looks like a summer thunderstorm coming in here. AWESOME!!!
    Dark as hell!!!

    SNOWING HARD AGAIN!

  75. I really hope mondays storm doesnt go from a promising widespread double digit snowfall to a 3-6″ snowfall. Sorry, i know the “official” criteria for significant snow begins at 6” but come on, we’re not the south here, i think all of us have been around long enough and seen enough storms here in NE to admit 6″ isn’t significant.

  79. Good afternoon!

    *Significant snow: That’s a very fluid definition. Significant can be defined by an amount, but that’s only of limited use. 1 inch of snow can be a significant snow if it falls in a 10 minute snow squall in the heart of rush hour. What I meant by significant snow on my post this time was snow that is in need of shoveling and plowing in the majority of my coverage area. Maybe it’s 3 inches, maybe it’s 6, maybe it’s 2. You decide. 🙂

    *First batch of snow showers was not particularly heavy here in Woburn but on my drive from Reading to Woburn in the 2PM hour I saw some areas in the distance that had lower visibility. I did get brief moderate snow here that indeed dusted the ground nicely. We run the risk of snow showers/squalls until about 9PM. In fact the final line may be the heaviest if it holds together…

    *Looking over info regarding the upcoming snow threat now while I sip a cup of Boston’s Best tea (which btw, is NOT the best tea in Boston, I just want to use up what I have left). 😀

    1. P.S. … I have been leaning GFS versus Euro in the early stages of predicting early next week’s event. Same as JMA.

      Snow just stopped, sun just came out.

  83. I must be under that finger of heavy snow with greens and yellows. It’s been going for a good 5 minutes now at a furious rate and on the grass, we might need nearing a half an inch.

    2. Looking at the radar, I believe it. Training heavy echoes right over you. And another moderate line coming from the WNW soon.

      Just like summertime storms, things seem to fire up more over SE MA.

      1. 1.2 inches from that. Amazing, best snow shower, squall I can recall in a while.

        I’ll keep an eye out for that next one.

        Meanwhile, the sun has popped out pretty strongly now.

  87. My glance over the info this afternoon reflects much of what JMA said yesterday, further south and later onset. Still working on the details for this area but it’s looking like a later Monday and light to moderate event from north to south across the region (meaning lightest north, more moderate to the south). Pretty decent agreement too. And this is probably due to better initialization of models regarding the ability to forecast the energy responsible for the development and movement of the system.

  88. Thanks for that link AceMaster…. I am hoping this storm doesn’t shift further south. I will be happy with the 8 inch snowfall that link you posted shows for me. Any slight shift south bring the bigger totals further south and any slight shift north bring the heavier totals further north.

  89. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in the snow squall line in central NY State. That is due here early this evening. It has a greater than 50% chance of surviving all the way to the the coast.

    1. Wow !!!

      Northwestern horizon is dark again and the southern most cumulus cloud which I can kind of see looks fairly tall for winter, perhaps 15,000 maybe 20,000 ft ??? Really looks like a summer sky !

  93. Will see what happens. Got to watch any wobbles in track. Looking at the link you posted is what the majority of the storms have been here in CT. More at the shore and less inland. In fact shoreline has 54 inches. They normally average around 24 inches for the winter where inland where right at 50 inches normal is 40.5 inches.

  95. On another subject,

    The 18Z NAM initially looks to want to push the heavier stuff into our area, but
    ultimately gets suppressed to the SOUTH.

    1. So the NAM is looking pretty CRAPPY for this event.
      Now wait until the GFS joins the party and then it’s ALL OVER!

  97. Wow, wow, wow !! It is pitch black dark.

    Like a thunderstorm, I can see some low scud orwhatever they are called, but very low clouds to our west and northwest underneath the extremely dark clouds.

    Can see the individual cloud mass slowly sinking southeastward, while the individual clouds move northeast.

    Expecting to get dumped on again very shortly.

    Scituate’s going to end up with 4 or 5 inches total between the 2 squalls.

  98. Oh my … This one has wind !! Howling from the NW …. Its snowing like crazy and all the snow on the trees from the squall an hour ago is blowing blown off. Its a whiteout !

    1. Won’t last too long.

      I’ve always said, snow squalls are my favorite weather. I like then even better than big snowstorms. I love the local variability and suddenness.

      This is very much the same kind of setup that triggers lines of storms in the summer.

      1. Honest to goodness, I was just about to type that whatever happens Monday, big or small, will in no way compete for pure weather excitement with the 2 snowsqualls that have passed through the last hour.

        About .5 new from this one. So, almost 2 inches total … Amazingly cool.

        1. 😀 Glad you enjoyed. Hopefully anyone driving was careful out there. As beautiful and wonderful as they are to watch, they can make roads hell really fast. That’s where we need to use our smarts.

  102. And the SNOW is flying again here for round #3, but this is the weakest round.

    Round #1 was good and round #2 was the best, but round #3 is virtually useless. 😀

  103. If I didnt know better, I’d think this second squall just built backwards a bit.

    Snow pouring down, that .5 report several minutes ago can be discounted. Nearing an inch on this one as well and over 2 inches for both combined.

    Judging by that radar, it should end as quickly as it roared in and perhaps we’ll see the sun. The snowcover’s back ! 🙂

  104. Depending on the exact timing of the heaviest snow is greatly dependent on how much snow accumulates Monday. I do think we have a solid chance at accumulating snow Monday. Still 72 hrs away and does have to be watched for higher accumulation trends, I believe it comes in on the lower side of the spreads IMO. We shall see

    I believe we have about 20 days before a pattern change will happen, around that time spring will make a big push. Sure it’s about right climatology wise, but just saying 🙂

    1. There could be a short lived pattern change 3rd or 4th week of March, but in talking to Colleagues today, we all seem to be on the same page that big change happens in later April or early May when we could go to a much above normal temp and below normal precip pattern in the northeast.

  105. These squalls are almost the opposite of summer in that t-storms in summer often weaken as they get closer to the coast, whereas the ocean is actually enhancing the snow

  106. In Chicago being a salesman instead of a Weatherman. Tell me about the squalls. My wifes says there was nothing at our place. Sad to miss them. More than a big snow storm, thunderstorms and snow squalls are my favorite weather events…

    FYI: limited ingestion of model and climate data the last two days, but very little changes from my Monday/Tuesday thinking of a shorter duration, further south, colder, all snow scenario.

      5. There’s those low clouds under the higher dark clouds I was trying to explain earlier. 🙂 Not my house, but it might as well have been, looked exactly the same. 🙂

  108. If not for the snow on the ground in the second pic, I would not have believed the first pic was from today. AWESOME!

  109. It may be just wishful thinking, but looking at the 18Z GFS so far, it looks as if
    perhaps it might be MORE North than the Euro. We shall see. 😀

        1. Yes, except that as Ace points out, the GFS has been
          OH SO CONSISTENT with this. For this reason, I don’t think we can just throw it out. 😆

  111. GFS has been the most consistent with its location of heaviest snowfall. This run is looking no different so far

  112. GFS LOOKING MIGHTY FINE!

    What is happening? A real struggle, I suppose. Of course, this is the 18Z run.

    1. Every run of the gfs has pretty much showed the same thing for a few days now. GFS handles these types of storms better. Might have to shave off a few inches from the far northern extent of the snow due to cold dry air erosion, but looks solid.

  114. Holy smokes Batman is all I can say about this afternoon. I had to go to a meeting with my principal at 3:30 at our high school; my school is maybe 1 mile from there down what has to be the straightest road in America. She was driving. We both have been down that road at least a million times and I’m telling you it’s straight–there aren’t even any side streets feeding into it. It’s a nice wide divided road, grass and trees in the middle. We left our school and it was really snowing, but the roads were clear. We’re driving along, and it’s getting bad–road is covered and snow is coming down hard. We can’t see a thing; I’ve got my window rolled down and my head out the window hoping maybe I can see that way. At one point, she said “I have no idea where we are” and I’m thinking holy crap, Batman, why am I talking like Old Salty? It took us 20 minutes to do what is usually a 2 or 3 minute drive. And she parks in the lower lot because she doesn’t want to try to drive up the hill and we slip and slide into the building. Get to the meeting and look out the window, and it’s hardly snowing. Good times, good times. Who ordered that???? I’m sorry, but I’ve had it with the snow and I’m opening up Camp Spring–serving pina coladas, BBQ and ice cream. Who’s in?

    1. I am liking that snow map Old Salty. I hope this will be the final outcome.
      The highs Monday where I am expected in low 20s so could be talking some higher than normal snow ratios.

  117. Geez sharp cutoff north to south, southern Nh a nonevent, I think it’s trended a tad south, NYC could be in for it, 00z nam and gfs runs will interesting 🙂

    1. Yeah it’s the 18z but we shall see, the 00z runs will be interesting, and I think the gfs goes about 50-60 miles further south, leading us to 3-5,4-6, we shall see 🙂

  119. Charlie you mentioned NYC in there hazardous weather outlook as well as southern four counties in CT wording in the statement snowfall of more than 8 inches possible.

  120. Sorry guys, sticking to my guns on this. Charlie’s not even gonna see a foot. This “storm” is going to be south IMHO. Still don’t like the setup for a big storm for us.

    We’ll get one more good whack. Just not this one.

  121. Did anyone happen to catch the tv mets on tonights newscasts? Curious about the mood surrounding this storm.

  122. FRom NWS not long ago about the shift to the South:

    …AS GUIDANCE APPROACHES WITHIN 4-6 PERIODS OF THE EVENT…A SHIFT SEEMS TO OCCUR. THEREFORE…AM NOT ACCEPTING THIS NEW TREND UNTIL THE TWO KEY PLAYERS WE HAVE DISCUSSED IN THE LAST FEW DAYS /ENERGY IN THE OPEN PACIFIC AND WELL INTO THE ARCTIC REGIONS OF CANADA/ ARE
    BETTER SAMPLED…WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW

    1. They’re in the denial phase of grief O.S. which is only step 1. They have four more steps to go before acceptance including anger, bargaining and depression.

  123. For the record JMA, I can’t wait that long (April or May) for it to get warm enough where my feet aren’t purple. Can you move that up a little please.

  124. Waiting to see those 0z runs. GFS been pretty consistent for a few runs now. I am not sold on a foot of snow just yet. I am still in the camp of a light to moderate snowfall.

  126. What’s left of that line of snow squalls that were in NY state are fast approaching.
    Still looks like it can put down a coating to 1/2 inch or so. Be careful out there.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  127. We have a new puppy arriving the first week of April.. I am ok with a few more hard weeks of winter and then would like to see it ease off since I will be taking a walk every other hour.

      1. cavalier king charles spaniel

        it has been almost a year since our last dog passed, the kids are 7 and 9, so everyone is pretty excited about the spring

        1. They are lovely dogs. We had a Black and Tan cocker before our current dog. The woman also bred the King Charles. Was your last dog a golden or did I make that up?

          2. we did have a golden that passed 3 years ago, last year was our mutt

            the mutt cost $10 from a farm that were effectively giving the puppies away due to an unplanned litter… the golden was a much more expensive proposition

            that said, the acquisition cost seems to pale in comparison to what a dog cost over its lifetime.. and you can’t put a price on happiness!

  128. Pete B declared two weeks ago that winter was basically over – “the straw that broke the camel’s back.” Terry (WBZ) voiced similar nonsensical sentiments: “Pattern change spells the end of winter.” The statements were crazy then. They look even crazier now. Where’s the accountability? I don’t see either met telling viewers that they were wrong. It doesn’t have to be a mea culpa. But, it’s annoying when professionals don’t own up to their mistakes.

    1. I agree totally. One thing that irritated the hell out of me with Todd Gutner.
      Never an utterance of “I was wrong”, never.

    2. Comments were made here when Pete made the statement you are referring to. I went in search at the time. This is what I found….

      “So, as we face the prospect of the second nor’easter in as many days, I offer this: we’re at a turning point. After this storm passes, jetstream energy (which feeds storms) will soften, we’ll slowly turn to a warmer phase, and the cold and storms will lose their bite.”

      Unless I am an idiot, I’d say we will slowly turn to a warmer phase. Well unless of course winter will last all year which is going to make a lot of people here very unhappy…..not I.

      I don’t know about terry but no one could pay me enough to walk in their shoes. Btw I’ve always liked todd too:) I will repeat that what these guys say is often dictated. I thought one reason for moving from BZ weather blog was the criticism of the mets.

  129. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/obs/GHGobs.html

    One last thing on the squalls earlier this afternoon.

    Look down just a bit at Marshfield’s ob to where the squalls hit, specifically the visibility. 10 miles, 20 minutes later … 0 visibility, 20 minutes later …. 9 miles ….. 20 minutes later, (squall #2) 0 visibility, 20 minutes later …. 10 miles.

    Never seen something ramp up instantly, then shut off instantly. Twice, one day, within one hour.

  130. I was taken off guard today by this coming Saturday’s forecast of sudden moderation into the mid 30s. Seems I thought it was going to be below freezing for a long stretch.

    I bring this up, because it seems then, that arctic originating high pressure bridges to our north late, late in the weekend, bringing in more cold air for early next week.

    This is why I favor the more supressed solutions of today. Not a miss, but more focused on the southern 1/3rd of New England.

    Its almost like the northern jet stream momentarily relaxes/lifts a bit early in the weekend to allow the moderation, only to surge back/supress a bit by early next week.

    I cant believe this probably could side towards a powdery snowfall for southern New England on March 3rd. Its happened before, but still.

  131. Meeting tommorrow on new start date, thinking of waiting 4 days, and starting on March 7th, for a warm up, or smaller type day to make sure everything’s working properly, and then Monday March 10th start all clients in the Jamestown,Newport, E.Greenwich area of RI. Still expect to be in the Boston area in late March, it’s my customers well north and west that have problems melting snow sometimes into early April. Waiting on 00z runs 🙂

    2. It does seem to be giving this initial wave a bit more relevance. I dont know if thats good if one is wishing for a productive Monday system.

      High behind the initial wave looks to be very strong, extending its weight pretty far south.

      I’m thinking the follow up wave for our Monday may look more surpressed when this run hits the 75-84 hr time frame.

    1. at least they are not posting double digit numbers willy nilly across all of new england – will be interesting to see if they are correct

      1. Heaviest snow looks to be South of Boston, not unlike the channel 5 map, but there is a chance the heavier stuff makes it about as
        far North as Boston. I don’t see it going much farther North.

        Waiting on the GFS. 😀

  135. I do understand that the vast majority of people want spring. This is what I hear at work, from most of my friends, and from my relatives. I’m in the minority, being a winter and fall person. I think that mets know that the majority of the audience wants spring, so they’ll tell them at every opportunity that spring’s around the corner. Makes the audience feel better. Problem with this is that spring’s often ephemeral in New England. It’s not our most defined season for sure. Summer, for instance, is fairly predictable. It’s usually warm, hazy, and sometimes hot followed by t-storms, cools off a little, then warm again, and so on and so forth. I can write a script for fall, too, and winter as well. Of course, these are generalizations, but they hold true most of the time. Spring’s much more fickle, very hard to predict, hard to even pinpoint when exactly spring has sprung, and often once spring has sprung summer follows almost immediately. I guess mets can’t remind the audience of spring’s fickle nature for fear of losing viewership. It’s all about ratings.

    2. You are right that it is all about ratings. And the guidelines are set by management. Spring is the elusive butterfly and as such the season I think people chase the most.

      2. Not being a huge snow fan, in my opinion, the issue is we generally deal with snow in the fall (it usually snows in late November or at some point in December before winter actually starts), so having to deal with it potentially for a the first 2-4 weeks of Spring just makes it too long (assuming it stays cold and snows into April…I think the Almanac – which has been decent this year – even has snow on April 30th). So it feel like a 5 month season at that point, then you go right into Summer.

        1. You’ll have to pardon me ……..please 😀 I am getting old so any day is a good day and I just enjoy whatever weather is tossed our way. Although I struggle a bit with excessive HHH but am working on that. Right now its colder than a witches t**….see I said I’m old….the wind is howling and I absolutely love it. If it were suddenly 60 with a gentle breeze I’d love that too.

          1. I agree to the infinity percentile.

            I can’t be bothered wasting time wishing for winter to be over, or to be here, or anything.

            IT IS THE SEASON THAT IT IS.

            IT IS THE PATTERN THAT IT IS.

            😀

            1. Bingo. I love all seasons.. though fall to me seems more fleeting b/c the leaves turn/drop too quickly for my taste – wish I could enjoy that phase longer.

  136. Heads up Boston, looks like one final line of snowshowers may pass thru in about 10-15 minutes.

    Re: NAM ….. I’m looking at the upper level maps OS posted above and that does not give me great confidence in a ton of northward movement to the precip shield post 84 hrs.

    Also, dont like placement of the high and where the core of the cold is. I visualize it kind of like a heavy dome or road block and it just looks like its wanting to impose its will on that not impressive SE Ridge. I’m visualizing a flatter jet stream on the northern side of whatever SE Ridge there is.

  137. This sure smells like a north mid Atlantic through southern CT storm. I think up to boston sees somewhere around 6 inches and more south of the city. One thing that will help is high ratios due to the cold air being over us. Keep in mind this is still 4 days out and storm hasn’t even been sampled yet. Just 24 hours ago models were showing 12+ for many areas and now much less. So this is far from set.

  140. Can’t disagree with that write up. I am very skeptical of this system making much of an impact here in Boston.

  141. Well, GFS stays the course – still a pretty decent hit for SNE. If anything QPF may be a tad higher than previous run.

  142. Agree but the tight gradient makes me wonder. Also what if gfs is overdoing precip. By Saturday we will have a much better handle on this one.

  144. I’d love those widespread 14-16″ amounts in CT but not buying it. Agree Hadi. Not buying any model solution for at least another 24 hours until the shortwaves responsible for this storm are closer and better sampled.

  145. No question in my mind there is going to be sharp cutoff in accumulation. Big slug of moisture slamming into the wall of cold air will result in good frontogenesis and some nice banding somewhere. The heavy snow band is going to set up east/west and the storm is moving east/west so once you are under it, you are in business. I could easily see those 12″+ totals verifying in those locations. North of that band though, the forcing is gone and all the moisture has been wrung out. The cold dry air just eats away at the northern fringe and you go from a lot of snow to very little over a short distance. We’ve seen this a couple times this year already. I could easily see this as a situation where, using the CT River Valley as an example, New Haven gets 12″, Hartford gets 6″, Springfield gets 3″ and Greenfield virtually nothing. It’s like walking the tight rope. Then if there’s a 30 mile shift in track N or S, it all changes. Tough forecast.

  146. That GFS snow map represents a shift to the south, somewhat.

    This is a trend and based on better data sampling, despite what NWS says.

    But a scrape by that storm instead of a major hit is NOT a sign of Spring. In fact, it’s a sign of an even colder overall pattern, and I see no end in sight. It just looks like it may be trending drier, overall, which to be honest is not a big surprise.

    With cold around, don’t turn your back on any storm that takes aim on the East.

  147. Hmm…0z Euro has ticked back north a bit. Delivers 1.0″ QPF along the south shore tapering to 0.5″ just south of the VT/NH border.

    Snow map shows 12″ of snow south of a line from Hartford to Providence tapering to 10″ along the Mass Pike and 7″ along the NH border.

    Central PA is the jackpot with 15-20″.

  148. Good morning.

    I am not wishing for it all, but I think there is a slight chance for the storm track to move north and west just a bit. I think the latest Euro track may show some of this. Again, I am using the words “slight chance” and “just a bit.”

    In the longer run, I spy another set-up, a week from Monday. I want sun and warmth.

      1. They’ll be no mild spring this year I fear. Thinking we’re going to go from 40’s to 80’s like in an instant sometime in mid to late May. Don’t get any ideas on sneaking a few plants in the garden early this year.

  151. 06z GFS the same. So stinkin consistent it would be a shame and embarassing for it to be wrong. NAM goes waaaay south, misses the region entirely. Jury still out and i want to say todays runs will offer some clues but i have my doubts they will be any closer to the correct outcome than a few days ago. More info does not always equal better results.

    1. Thing is, all I see here is a frontal boundary with overrunning. No well developed storm with a big precip. field etc…

      With so much cold, dry air on top of us and such a narrow precip. field, I just don’t see this panning out to be anything “big”.

      It feels like one of those times when if it gets us it gets us and if it doesn’t, nobody should be surprised.

    2. C’mon O.S., that’s all you’ve got for us this morning is the GFS and Euro! You’ve got more tricks up your sleeve than that!

    3. I might add. The NAM appears to be suppressed considerably to the South.

      The CMC is also suppressed.

      wants to give us about .27 inch qpf is all:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

      FIM is a little too far South still:

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014022800/236/3hap_sfc_f096.png

      qpf is UP a bit from Yesterday’s runs:

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014022800/236/totp_sfc_f114.png

        1. I don’t think this ever was going to be a widespread 12 inches but don’t be surprised with these overrunning events. Can dump more than you think.

    1. I read something like nearing 70 days of below zero temps this winter for many of of those states. That’s just awful.

  154. More questions than answers from both NWS discussions out of Upton and Taunton.
    To me its a question not if were getting accumulating snow but how much. One of our meteorologists feels here in CT feels Philly to NYC to southern CT will have the biggest snow totals from this.

  156. I dont remember what storm it was earlier in the winter but we had one of these overrunning events. I just cant remember which model handled it the best. If anyone can remember, id go with that model.

    1. The DGEX looks a lot like the NAM solution projected out past 84hrs. Isnt the DGEX an extension of the NAM?

    1. Most likely a Fisher Cat. A while back, there was a sighting of one in Bedford, MA in the woods behind my sister’s home near Hanscom AFB.

    2. believe it or not, i killed a fisher cat (on accident ) about 3 weeks ago in Methuen
      he was bigger than i thought

  162. But do we see any of that storminess here is the big question. We were supposed to have had 2 storms by now between wed and tomorrow and we got neither. Now monday isnt without its doubts. I worry we will just freeze and be dry into march.

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