Storm Slips, Cold Holds

152 Comments

7:24PM

Arctic air made it feel like mid Winter today, though bright sun ruled. We lose some of the sun tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches, though we also moderate the air mass. Areas that were near 20 today should near 30 tomorrow, for example, so about 10 degrees “milder”. But this will be after one frigid night tonight, with a mostly clear sky and a calm wind with very dry air allowing temperatures to fall below zero in most areas away from cities and shorelines. The approaching front will make its way though the region from northwest to southeast. Some precipitation, snow/mix north, mix/rain south, may accompany this front. As it sits south of the region by Sunday night, a low pressure area is expected to ripple along it. This should throw precipitation back into most of southeastern New England with air cold enough for snow, some some accumulation is expected. This will taper off Monday as the low pressure wave moves away. A second wave of low pressure would bring more important snow if it came close enough, but my current feeling is that this area will pass too far south to impact all of the region, and may just bring some snow to the South Coast. For the entire event (Sunday-Monday), only light snow accumulation is expected from southern NH into MA, with light to moderate amounts in far southern MA and RI, moderate favoring the South Coast.

Behind the unsettled weather will come another bout of cold and dry weather for mid week, with some temperature moderation late in the week. Don’t look for a big warm up, however, as the pattern we are going into is one that will feature less storminess, but frequent cold air masses.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from -8 interior valleys to around 0 most suburbs to around 10 urban centers and immediate shores. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-34. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of midday-afternoon light rain/mix south of Boston and light mix/snow Boston north and west, then a period of snow possible everywhere at night. Highs 30-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of snow in the morning. Clearing NW to SE by late day. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

152 thoughts on “Storm Slips, Cold Holds”

  2. Thanks, TK. Appreciate your forecasts, as always.

    I like this period of sunny, cold weather. But, I understand that others either want the cold to not go `wasted’ as appears to be the case, or spring to arrive as soon as possible. I’ve observed virtually no signs of spring. And by now, usually there are some. Our extended period of winter cold is taking its toll on wildlife. The ducks, for example, have almost no open water to swim in. And with the dry weather have very few sources of water around. By now, ducks usually begin to form heterosexual partnerships (in some instances, for life, as with swans). I am not seeing any of that. The ducks I see in the water (Charles) look somewhat listless and cold, and are not `in the mood.’ They’re not making any noises, and hardly swimming. Red-wing blackbirds have yet to make an appearance. This is unusual. I have no idea how they `know’ not to migrate yet. Clearly, they are better forecasters than we humans. Last year at this time, I was hearing the male and female calling (precursor to mating, which occurs sometime in March). I did see a heron ice-fishing on the Charles the other day. That was really cool to observe. Plant-life, shrubs, bushes, trees are completely dormant, obviously. Without a snow-cover – and a lot of the cover is gone here in downtown Boston – the cold and dryness are doing a number on the grass. Worst possible thing for grass is harsh cold.

    2. Joshua I saw what appeared to be some Canadian geese headed north yesterday. The robins are feasting on my holly. And our daffodils are now about 1-1.5 inches tall. Last year they bloomed march 13. It will be later this year..that’s for sure

  3. Logan’s snow total to date = 56.4″

    Logan’s snow total for 2012-13 = 63.4″

    Will Logan surpass last year’s total?? 🙂

  4. OK, I’ll be fourth. Thank you, TK. It looks like my daughter will be able to get to Phoenix on Tuesday after all.

    1. I’m impressed, Matt. Both by the new visual and by you guys working together. You and Scott are an amazing addition to this blog. An added plus is getting to know two very fine young men.

  7. Thanks TK. I must be getting very used to the temps. It didn’t feel that cold to me tonight as I sat outside in a sweatshirt. I love the crisp air and the quiet and calm that snow seems to naturally provide

    3. Now there is some shear logic and weather wisdom beyond his years.
      That is some of the best meteorological reading I have seen in a long time!

      NOW, does this lend any credence to the NAM run. IS it possible the NAM
      is onto exactly what He is saying? OR is it what the NWS is calling it.
      Simply and model OUTLIER????

      I say IF the 12Z run holds course, then the NAM is onto something.
      IF it falls in line with the others, then so be it.

      12Z RUN where are you?

  12. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=great%20lakes%20ice%20cover&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEQQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.glerl.noaa.gov%2Fres%2Fglcfs%2Fglcfs.php%3Fhr%3D00%26ext%3Dice%26type%3DN%26lake%3Dl&ei=zEgRU8nDNofF0AGl1YCIDQ&usg=AFQjCNEbn33lTuk6J7GGGD6QOBSamuh0Bg&bvm=bv.62286460,d.dmQ

    85.4 unbelievable … With single digits, moderating to mid-upper teens for highs next Mon-Wed in the Great Lakes region, wonder if 90% is possible ….. Its Lake Ontario thats got all the open water.

  13. Vicki, thanks for the spring update. You’re reporting more spring activity than I’m seeing. I believe the daffodils must still be snow-covered near where I live, because I haven’t seen them. Would make sense that they would be coming up now. Of course, there’s not action with the magnolia trees on Beacon Street. But, several of these trees have robin’s nests in them, which you can see when there’s no foliage. These nests are so solidly built that snow, wind, and rain do not damage them. I think that they get `recycled’ by bird families. Sort of like a time share.

    1. Hi Joshua. We have a bluestone walk on the south side of our house. And it is up against white siding of the house. All that said, the daffodil bulbs were planted in the early 80s. They used to bloom late April. I have pics of them in full bloom poking up from a foot of snow from the April 29 1987 storm. They now bloom at least a month earlier. The robins have been here all winter. First I have seen that but know they like the male holly bushes.

      1. I forgot. We saw some nests yesterday and were marveling at how they remain no matter the wind intensity or storms. I think we could learn far more from nature than we do 🙂

  17. We are not out of the woods completely, 2-4 inches south of Boston is very possible IMO, less than an inch north of Boston, 1-2 in Boston, goodnight 🙂

  18. Today’s AccuWeather trivia Quiz.

    How much snow did Boston receive in its snowiest spring?
    A. 26.2”
    B. 30.6”
    C. 34.4”
    D. 41.1”

    Answer later today.

  19. I have seen some snow maps this am that I can’t believe are correct. The BZ map is showing 3-6″ that extends north of the Pike. I can’t see that much happening at least right now. I know the track has shifted/wobbled here and there, but I still don’t see it. The map below explains exactly how I feel.

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/

  23. Does the nam have updated info on the storm because its the latest run? Is it still off the coast?

    1. I’ve never seen one.

      We did see two (2) Majestic deer cross the road in front of us last night
      in Westwood. 😆

  25. I am completely DUMBFOUNDED!!!!!!!!

    Model, model who has the correct Model. I can’t take this much more.

    If it’s gong South, Why oh why can’t ALL of the models take it South??????????????

    Anywho Euro has 1 inch for Boston. Nam has a FOOT!!!

    Here is the NAM snow map from 06Z. A HUGE increase from the 0Z run. What up wit dat?

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=069

    by Contrast here is the 06Z GFS snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=072

    I’m not going to post the Euro, but it is very similar to the GFS, so you get the
    picture.

    1. Hadi, with their track record, you’re going with the NWS?

      Look, I am completely aware that the NAM is likely an Outlier, however,
      How the hell can the NAM be so much farther NORTH than the others????

      Does it have something to do with what Matt Noyes was saying?

      Truly, is the NAM onto something? BIIIIIG shift from the 0Z run.

  27. UGH southward trend. NWS out of Upton, NY now has 2-4 inches for my area where yesterday it was 6-8. I am hoping there is a good surprise and the front this wave of low pressure will track along won’t settle too far south.

  28. The exact location of the stalled cold front is the wildcard, IMO.
    NWS – 651 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014
    A WOBBLE NW OR SE ON THE ORDER OF 25-50 MILES CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS IN SURFACE OUTCOMES/IMPACTS.

  31. 12z runs today will likely be the first ones with complete data with the storm being onshore in the west

  32. I am hoping for a good surprise. It stinks for me with the heavier bands of snow NYC Long Island. If this low could just wobble a little bit more north whole new ball game. Only got into a heavy band of snow once this winter with the storm back on the 13th 14th of February.

    1. Me too, JJ. 12Z runs will be the first clue. As Ace pointed out, they will
      be the first runs to have the Pacific energy on shore and well sampled.

      “could” make ALL the difference in the world.

      Hey it could easily just confirm the results already in. BUT I am hoping
      for that surprise the jog things farther North. 😆

    1. It appears so…
      WITH 01.0Z GUIDANCE PREFER A NON-NAM CONSENSUS BLEND WITH PREFERENCE TO THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF.

      1. Well, if that were the case, then WHY the uncertainty headline?

        To me it means they WANT to go with the UKMET/GFS/ECMWF
        blend, but that NEW NAM run is nagging at the back of their minds, thus UNCERTAINTY.

        Pysch 101. 😆

  35. O.S.

    6z Nam takes a low center from NC/VA border to just south of Nova Scotia in a 3 hr. frame.

    Toss it.

    1. Don’t think so.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_051_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=67

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_054_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=67

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_057_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=67

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_060_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=060&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=67

      2. It take about 12 hours, not 3.

        I KNOW the NAM could be all wet. As JJ says, I’m hoping for that
        surprise and with new data, just perhaps the NAM is onto something. It’s likely an OUTLIER, but just in case, I’ll be watching. 😆

  36. Curious why when the NAM shows no snow, you guys say it’s never right anyway and a weak model…but when it shows you something you like it’s something to watch and on to something…

    1. The nam no matter how weak its performance can never be discounted within its range because it sometimes catches onto trends the longer range models don’t…that goes for either a snowy or no snow scenario….no one really knows what’s going to happen and that’s what makes the tracking part so fun, at least for me

  37. Lately, the NAM has been performing worse and worse, even in “it’s range”. It doesn’t have a range anymore. It just flat out SUCKS on nearly every event except in a few regional situations. But what good is that if you don’t know until the storm’s underway in your location?

    I completely agree with the NWS at the moment.

    1. No one has been able to answer this question?

      How can it all of a sudden start sucking?
      Has the code been changed? See, I cannot fathom this.

      What has changed to cause it to now suck? That is what I want to know.

      I don’t think the atmosphere suddenly changed. I don’t get it?????? 👿

  38. I’m not sure where this storm is heading but it is amazing to see the difference between the Nam and the Euro/GFS……to or others who would like to discount the nam as an outlier I am curious as to your reasoning….aside from being an outlier from a model perspective, what meteorological factors support a more southerly shunted track? Thanks in advance

    1. Strong northern stream, elongated west to east flow with northern stream much stronger than southern stream. Confluence between the 2 streams but no true phasing (merging troughs, negative tilt). Takes the Pacific moisture/energy and just rips it off from the top and throws it eastward, south of New England (or puts us on the northern edge anyway). Think of using your garden hose on your driveway to divert a mass of bubbles from washing your car from reaching your lawn. Hold the hose in one place and blast the water along the ground. What happens when the bubbles try to penetrate that stream? Whoosh! Off they go in the direction of the stronger stream.

  40. Damn… I have to head out and can’t watch the NAM show.

    I will say this. In following the depiction of the 500MB chart each hour or time frame, the NAM is maintaining a slight WSW flow in the Northerly stream. NOT a true West flow. Will this be enough to get the Boston area into the heavier snow? That is the question.

    It’s looking like it may want to hold course. I could be wrong of course.

    Interesting stuff. 😆 😆

  42. Good morning, I still think Boston south could receive a general 2-4 inches, we shall see 🙂 I’m going out to enjoy the beautiful day, maybe if it can get above 35 degrees we will go to Patriot place and then bike riding, and then maybe monkey joes, but don’t want to be stuck inside so idk 🙂

  44. Here comes the next chunk of surreal arctic air.

    Its is currently -15F to -25F across northern and central Minnesota, as well as North Dakota. Montana isnt fairing much better.

  45. Ice out on Lake Winnepesaukee and the northern Great Lakes should be late this year. I wouldnt be surprised by a post May 1st date.

  46. The way this is trending GFS and EURO will probably show very little if any snow across the region with there latest runs.
    Offshore storm later next week to keep an eye on.

    1. NWS is already hinting at the next storm near the benchmark come next Saturday morning. Pacific energy is involved yet again.

      1. I will agree that the threat about a week away, compared to how I normally look at systems that far out, is a bit of a watcher.

    1. “If it can’t be warm, at least it can be light!” – Quote of the week on WHW blog. 🙂

  52. Couldn’t resist replying to Tim Kelly’s reply to Ch 4’s blog story about the fizzling storm. I hope he doesn’t take it as snarky. It’s not meant to be that way. 🙂

    1. It doesn’t appear snarky at all? Was his snarky. I don’t know the relationship and would be surprised if one met made a snarky comment on the blog of another so figure it was friendly fun

  53. 12z GFS maintains the suppression theme. A couple of inches on the south coast, virtually nothing north of a Hartford to Providence to Boston line.

    It even eliminates our little warm up later in the week and keeps the next coastal storm suppressed and out to sea. With the persistence of this pattern, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if that happened and we just remained cold and dry for the next 7+ days.

  54. going to be cold and the path of the storms will remain to the south and east, Out to sea.

    1. What does that imply? I don’t know that guy so I don’t know if that’s good or bad…HA.

      1. Mr. Rayno is an excellent analyst and very decent forecaster.

        He believes that the models are in error with the track of the coming system because he believes they are not handling the timing of the steering mechanism correctly. He is “worried about southern New England” though he does say that the heaviest will stay south of this area. The AccuWeather map has Boston on the northern edge of a 3-6 belt but he is shifting things a touch further north, putting Boston in the middle of the 3-6 band.

        Though I did notice a couple things off with his video.

        1) He is calling winds that are nearly due west in the upper levels “southwest” because of the curvature on the map. Sometimes people forget to take this into account. He’s showing west winds but thinking they are southwest. That will make a difference.

        2) He referred to “longitude” as “latitude” .. but that’s probably because he looked tired and was on the 3rd take recording it because it ran too long the previous 2 times. 😉

        Right or wrong, I like Bernie.

        1. I just watched that video, interesting take. My confidence has not moved since Wednesday when snow first appeared in my forecast. Glad I’m not a tv met for this one.

          1. Agree.

            I happen to disagree with Bernie on this one, but no disrespect to the guy at all.

            His bloopers on accuweather.com continue to be some of my favorites of all time. 🙂

    2. This is the text to go along with the second map.

      “This is the first time this winter that a Southern California/Pacific Storm system is interacting with an Arctic Cold front in the Midwest and Northeast…so not surprising the models are struggling on phasing the two. A piece of energy currently in the Plains (point 1) is already bringing some light snow while the main storm system is down in the Southwest (point 2). The two will meet tomorrow and ride along a stationary cold front resulting in an over-running type storm system that typically do bring 4-8″+ amounts and over a foot in spots. Models vary by about 100 miles on where the front will ultimately set up and the U.S. GFS did shift south a bit last night…probably too far South. If you’re on the fringe of snow here, i.e. Southern VA or New England a lot can change over the next 48 hours. Until the Pacific system develops in the Midwest tomorrow it’s anyone’s guess if this will be a widespread 5-8″ or a 10-14″ type storm from Central Missouri to Boston.”

      I’m not sure what they mean by the first sentence. We have had Pacific moisture interacting with the northern stream periodically all winter.

  57. Though I disagree with wt360 and Bernie’s thoughts of heavier snow for SNE from this next event, I may have jumped the gun on calling the pattern dry for a long stretch. A common mistake I make and trying to catch it this time.

    End of week has me worried.

        1. Thanks ….

          I trust loaded with moisture, so, if that verified, there’s concerns with either a lot of snow or rain ???

          1. Potential, as it could be a large system. But if it’s a bit offshore, VT escapes.

            1. Thanks TK. Im hoping it affects VT, could use some fresh powder to ski on when im there next weekend 🙂

    1. Looks like it. Go figure. We miss out on snow for it being too cold, but then we get a moisture loaded system tracking over the BM and its rain. I give up. I will say, i do not trust ANYTHING the euro says past 3 or 4 days. I won’t get sucked in again.

          1. I have an increased interest since ill be skiing at killington for the weekend. Would love for some nice powder

  59. I kid you not …..

    I found a town in western Texas via the NWS hourly obs ….. Its name is Brady. Its currently 90F.

    🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I have video of Tim Marshall chasing a super cell thunderstorm near Brady TX back in the 1980s. 🙂

        1. He is one of several. Met him at one of the SNE Wx Conferences. A very friendly, knowledgeable guy.

  61. Despite the mudslides, the major rains that are hitting California (snow in the mountains) are very beneficial. It won’t do much to resolve the drought situation, but it’s vital they get some rain to prevent a start-up of spring wild-fires.

    Looks like we’ll get through this lengthy cold period without significant snow. That surprises me. My guess is that we’ll have lots of rain at the end of the week and temperatures in the 40s. Oh well, …

    1. I’m having steelhead for dinner. :). And if it isn’t that, i like the idea of not discounting the storm yet. I like when the anticipation lasts as long as possible

  64. From NWS out of Upton, NY. I am not betting the house on it.
    ONE THING
    TO NOTE ABOUT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS IS THAT THEY WILL HAVE MORE SAMPLES
    OF THE MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING JET IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SO WE COULD
    SEE THIS RESPOND AS A CHANGING TREND TONIGHT WITH MODEL OUTPUT OF
    PRECIPITATION IN MODELS.

  65. I think its a safe bet with the downward trend. I would love to wake up tomorrow morning and have a big shift happen north but I would be surprised to see that.

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