Weekend Update

194 Comments

5:20PM

Did it feel a little milder today? The lower to middle 30s for high temperatures in much of southeastern New England were in contrast to the Arctic cold yesterday. It’s all relative. Today’s temperatures in November or April would be considered very cold. We’ve adjusted, like it or not, to the cold pattern. And it’s really not going away anytime soon. Now that we’ve got that squared away, it’s on to the storm threats. There are 2 of those in this forecast period. The first is the well advertised Sunday-Monday threat, one that I’ve always had a close eye on but was never too worried about it becoming a big snow event for most of the region, if any of it. It appears that it will be a minor to borderline moderate event for southeastern New England, occurring mainly during Sunday evening, from the first of 2 low pressure waves riding along a cold front that will have just passed through the region. The second of these waves is expected to stay too far to the south. This would be the one responsible for the more significant snow if it were to come far enough north. It does not look like that will happen. But we know better to turn our back on such a system. It’ll be spied until it’s safely beyond the region Monday. After that, it’s dry and cold for Tuesday into the middle of next week. The next storm threat, the end of next week, is too far away to talk about other than it will be the development of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico that may make a run up the East Coast. Possible tracks this many days away range from a storm here to a complete miss – any surprise?

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 22-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow showers except rain/mix showers South Coast region. Highs 30-38. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow, accumulating from a coating southern NH to around 3 inches along the South Coast. Lows 12-20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clearing. Highs 24-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 24.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 26.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/rain late. Low 22. High 37.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/rain. Low 32. High 38.

194 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  4. Thanks tk, next weekend looks like rain IMO, we shall see, very surprised the storm trended that far south, It wouldn’t surprise me if it came north 50 miles, again will see 🙂

    1. 6 to 7 days out I’m not going to worry too much about 50 mile track wobbles. I’ll be happy having the thing within 300 miles of its eventual track this far in advance. 🙂

  5. Thanks TK. It was mild enough that I moved from my usual sweatshirt to a cotton top. Yep spring arrived….meteorologically speaking that is 🙂

  6. Repost.

    Today’s AccuWeather trivia Quiz.

    How much snow did Boston receive in its snowiest spring?
    A. 26.2”
    B. 30.6”
    C. 34.4”
    D. 41.1”

    Answer soon.

    1. Yup…was playing in an ultimate frisbee tournament at UPenn. Saturday was like 65 degrees. We played our last game Sunday late afternoon in heavy snow, drove back to Tufts in the storm. Miserable drive.

  8. a side note from winter weather and spring. how about the fact that the patriots could get Revis as well as jimmy graham if they are the highest bidders.

  10. Today’s AccuWeather trivia Quiz.

    How much snow did Boston receive in its snowiest spring?
    A. 26.2”
    B. 30.6”
    C. 34.4”
    D. 41.1”

    The answer they gave today was D, 41.1″, but for some reason I am not sure that is correct. I guessed C myself and then I wondered if they were distinguishing between spring and meteorological spring. ?????

  12. DC and BWI looking at 12+ what a bummer we miss out on another big one. Even though we have had above average snow we tally haven’t had a widespread 12+ inch storm.

  13. Pats would never give up two 1st round picks for Graham. That would be comical if anyone thinks they would.

  16. The WBZ AccuWeather Trivia Quiz answer of 41.1″ is in fact correct. Boston received 38.9″ in March of 1993 and 2.2″ in April.

    Total snowfall 1992-93 = 83.9″

    Btw, I had my doubts on that answer as well until I looked it up. . 😉

  17. Storm has shifted so far south that New York is now out of the snow zone. Places ike Richmond and nova are the big winners. Pretty unreal just to think 48 hours ago what the models had been showing.

    2. I saw that…..great news. I do wish DaveW would join us. He is knowledgeable and respectful of the BZ mets who take the time to do the blog.

  19. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the most that it has snowed in a single day in Boston in March?
    A. 6.7”
    B. 9.0”
    C. 12.7”
    D. 13.2”

    Answer later today.

    4. has to be 3/31/1997 I would think. It was coming down in buckets on its
      way to 25 inches. Just don’t remember how much fell before midnight.

      Going with ‘D’.

    1. Not really unexpected – had snow showers in the forecast. 🙂

      A couple TV guys mentioned scattered dustings/coatings this morning too.

      You won’t need to do anything.

      It’ll melt / evaporate.

      1. I had also seen mentioned that there could be a dusting or just snow showers theoughout the day but with more after dark which I assume has fizzled

        Even though we have had significant snow, I feel as if this could be called the winter that nearly was. So many have shown potential and then poof. Yep I know they didnt all poof. I just like the word :). But we were supposed to have 3 in the last week alone

        1. I call it the winter that went Kaboom on us, much below normal cold, and much above normal snow = goes down as the worst for us since moving back in 05, I’m sure I’m not in the minority, bring spring on!!!!

          1. Oh I don’t think it’s been bad and please don’t mistake my comment for complaining. I’d love more snow but then I’d be happy with warmups too. Pretty much whatever we have works for me. What’s not to love about New England

      1. You mean by most people. Not all of us. I don’t care what it does. I can’t change it anyway. 🙂

        1. Not all but most 90%+ which is about 6.3 million of the 6.8 million that live in the commonwealth 🙂

            1. 2.5 million new englanders have left bc of the weather and economy since the 80’s, to the sun belt regions of this country, it’s staggering, you will never admit it, and that’s ok, but it’s the harsh truth, I wish it was the other way around, but it’s not, I wouldn’t call all these people wimps, I’d call them smart lol, in this short life we have, why live half of it uncomfortably, and I know u love sitting out on the deck in -2 degrees, that’s not for most, most would call u nuts, I’m not saying that disrespecting you Vicki, but it’s 0 degrees and on the deck, c’mon!! Not for most

  23. The trusted accuweather 45 day forecast has high temps below 32 until Thursday. Then the high temp gets above 32 for the rest of the forecast period. The temp never gets above 60 for the next 6 weeks.

  25. I dont know if they’ll happen, but a couple interesting 00z GFS features (and I’m not talking about the 384 hr bomb 🙂 )

    This high eventually moves North of us this week. At the surface, there’s an opportunity for some light winds off the ocean. Perhaps a northern stream disturbance squeezing out some snow Wed/Thursday ??

    One heck of a brief cold shot, reserved only for New England March 11th.

  26. Dallas is 31F, Houston is 72F. The Panhandle of TX is in the single digits. I wonder which airmass will win ? 🙂

  29. Fantastic write by Matt Noyes:

    Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    24 hours ago, I waxed poetic on the need for a steady, measured approach to forecasting, in order to avoid creating a flipping forecast (pun intended) that changes with each computer run. There is a lot of interesting insight that can be derived from numerically assessing available guidance. Some would say this takes the intuition out of forecasting, but it doesn’t have to: if we can combine the best technology with classic intuition, we have a superior forecast. For instance, last night approximately 60% of the variance in available solutions was regarding north/south placement of the storm (which is why I’d mentioned it was too early to reliably commit to north/south storm track placement) – tonight, north/south variance is down to only 20% of the uncertainty. In other words, the north/south placement has become more certain, and lingering variance now focuses on storm speed and intensity. As track becomes more clear, we can find many helpful nuggets regarding accumulation, too – think about the image below in terms of a child’s growth – 50th percentile is right in the middle (average), 75th percentile is a really tall kid (only 25% are taller) and 25th percentile is shorter than 75% of peers. In this case, the percentiles apply to what percentage of possible solutions yield certain amounts of snow by Monday evening. 50th percentile (top map) is most likely. 25th and 75th represent reasonable bottom and top ends, respectively. We have a long way to go before this is widely grasped for public consumption of the forecast, but a robust understanding of probability is where our field is heading, and once fine tuned to be understood by the masses, will create a more aware and better prepared end user of forecast information.

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/t1/1798808_744595428893343_189252910_n.jpg

    1. Great perspective. I’ve heard TK say many times that intuition absolutely has to be combined with technology.

  30. re: NON-EVENT

    SHOULD have stayed with my initial thoughts. Earlier I thought that it would be
    South, but NO! Then I got sucked in on the the model runs and the was even grasping at straws at the end (NAM) to no avail.

    This has been the absolute WORST Winter ever for Model Flipflopalooza!!!

    I guess they don’t know how to properly factor in the Polar Vortex, which has been
    a constant visitor this year. I dunno. Whatever it is/was it sucks.

    Ok I am NOW officially in Camp SPRING! Bring it on.
    Not gonna happen!

    1. Bring spring, now we have to suffer through this cold, if the winter hasn’t been cold enough ugh

  34. The GFS wants to Drop a couple of inches on the coast tonight?
    Don’t know if that is real or fantasy. 😆

  36. This is the longest stretch i can remember where majority of the area has had a deep snow pack.

    1. I agree, it has been a long long time since we’ve had an anamonley type winter like this. Lets hope next weeks storm stays away like its hinting at 🙂

        1. Boston’s temps…
          November was -2.0
          December was -1.4
          January was -1.6
          February was -2.8
          So basically November-February was about 2F colder than normal. Cold? Yes. Highly anomalous? Hardly.

          Boston’s snow…
          Normal through Feburary is about 34 inches.
          The season through February has had about 56 inches.
          That’s a departure of +22 inches. Significant departure yes but this winter makes the big ones of the mid 1990s look average, regarding snowfall. And the 6 week barrage of 12-26-2010 to 2-2-2011 was far worse. And DON’T FORGET, Boston had over 55 inches in February and March last winter!

          No, this is not the worst winter in a long time, not even close. It’s cold and snowy, yes. It’s not that anomalous.

            2. I actually didn’t make the point, I filtered it.

              And I also gave climate statistics pointing out that it has not been a long time since we’ve had a winter like this one, especially in terms of snow.

              1. My guess is that the warmth of this century is the anomaly and as others have said we are simply having a fairly typical New England winter. Typical is used loosely since it is winter and there is no predicting what each new year will bring. Even with the warmer temps this century, we have still been able to accumulate good amounts of snow

            1. Now THAT is true. 55 inches in Boston is not something you see too often coming in a 6 week stretch from February to mid March.

              1. I can’t remember how much Boston got during the feb 9 storm I’m curious if would be comparable to other years where we have had a “super” storm in Feb or any time after that. One storm can certainly skew the numbers

    2. yup, with another really close call for the 11th with COLD air in place. 😆
      Have to watch that one.

      2. I agree with you about it not being terribly long but if you listen to some people, and most media, you’d think it was BEYOND ETERNITY. I’m sorry but I have to laugh about that. 🙂 Welcome to what it used to be like!

        1. I don’t know if I’m imagining it, but there just seems to be more complaining this year. Thoughts from an older – not necessarily wiser – individual………all of the complaining and wishing in the world won’t change the weather but it will certainly make your day a whole lot less fun 🙂

          1. Way more complaining.
            A lot of it is media-driven, not to blame someone else for what people do, but you know how it goes. People see some graphic about how “terrible” or “worst ever” the winter is and they suddenly are victims of something horrendous. It’s almost like mob mentality on a tamer scale and largely online. But it extends to the real world too. You hear people constantly talking about how much they hate the weather, etc. Well, while it’s true and perfectly normal to have favorable or unfavorable natural reaction toward the elements, since we’re made that way, it still becomes a societal issue regarding how much we let it displease us. You learn how to adapt if you want to exist in any climate. Animals do it. I think we can manage.

            2. PEOPLE’S LIFESTYLE HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST 25yrs, 20yrs ago we had 12 congressmen, down to 9 now, and by 2020 or 2030 will be down to 8, and we r predicted to be down to 6 by 2050, mainly bc of the weather, people don’t want the weather to control them for 6 months a yr, so they get up and move, these days unlike in the 40’s and 50’s our residents just get up and leave especially our kids between 18-30, which is the worst, I know most in mass really don’t care about the economy itself, and care more about whether the bees r gonna go under ground or nest in the roofs. Anyways I’m done complaining, back to the crappy weather lol 🙂

              2. I would like to see the data that suggests that. Particularly that it is because of the weather. Can you point to a study?

              3. It’s a mute point, Massachusetts will still lose a congressional seat even if mass grows 300,000 residents over the next few years, which it won’t. Bc the south is growing so very much faster, this state grows 150,000 in 8 yrs and its big news, the sun belt grows 150,000 in a quarter sometimes much more. I’ve even seen 1 that has Massachusetts down to 4 representives in 2050, very sad, weather and zoning restrictions have done it. it will never grow as fast as the sun belt hence why it will continue to lose a house representive every decade or every other decade, our state is becoming more powerless everyday tk 🙂 and I dislike that

  41. This winter was not as bad as a lot of people have said it was. Snowfall or the cold temperatures we have had was not even close to the snowiest or coldest winter’s we have ever seen.
    TK a former meteorologist here in CT on the radio said last week that were going to have more winter’s like this is one in New England over the next several years and that were going back to what it was in the 70s. Do you agree with that statement???

    1. I do. It’s already started. Several years ago we started seeing more cold air showing up in North America after the PDO flipped phases. It’s taking some time to see the impact, temperature-wise, in much of the Lower 48, but this year it’s here. 2 years ago (the non winter) was an anomaly, even by warm phase standards. But we’re in a cold phase now that will be lasting quite some time.

  42. Vicki, see my reply above regarding the anomaly that this winter really is not. 🙂

  43. might it be fair to say that today’s 12z GFS is an exceptionally good run ?

    The reason I say this is because :

    A) it maintains the current pattern or one we’ve seen all winter (mild west, cold east)

    B) each storm along the east coast is OTS, which seems to be a theme lately.

  44. Complain a lot! Some people I have seen this year yell at the TV or Radio when the weather comes on. They are sick of the cold and snow cause it’s the worst winter in decades, at least that is what they are told. They are convinced the weather people get paid for being wrong more than half the time and say how they would be fired if it were the same way where they work. Remember when this blog broke away or started to get free of the BZ one, people were callus, rude and ready to fight if you didn’t agree with them on the weather. This blog, TK, is a great place to talk about the weather and try to predict what is going to happen next. I don’t know a lot about the weather but I enjoy reading what you all have to say about it. The news forecasters can’t hold a candle to most of you so this is where I come to get the right answers a day or two before everyone else. Some mistakes are inevitable but they are few and far between here, I guess because you all know a lot and are ready to do the unthinkable and listen to each other. Therefore I want to thank you all for helping me understand the weather and realize how much more we all need to know about it. Stay warm and God Bless!

    Cheerio, Merlin

    1. Very nice compliments. Thank you. 🙂

      I can only speak for myself when it comes to forecasting. I always try to give it the best shot I can. Sometimes, it works out nicely. Sometimes, I get a good laugh and then try to avoid the flying tomatoes that were NOT in the forecast. 😉

    1. Remarkable video.

      Another example of what happens when we keep building on the edge of the water on coasts that are naturally eroded over time.

    1. Pretty much as has been advertised by WHW the last couple days. 😉

      Shameless self promotion on my part – bad, bad. 😉

  48. Charlie..

    I’m curious about a couple things. If you say that Massachusetts is losing so many people, regardless of reason (economy, weather, etc.), then why does census data reveal that though not in any boom, Massachusetts is the regional leader in population growth, and easily tops of all 6 New England States? (Maine is the state that is losing people.)

    Massachusetts gained nearly 48,000 residents in the one year period from July 1 2012 to July 1 2013. Again, not a boom, but certainly tops in the region (yes I did look at other states in the Northeast).

    Looking in a little more closely to Boston, my city of Woburn, for example, has gained people, not at an astounding rate, but a fairly steady one, since 1990. The population boom of the 1950s and 1960s was replaced by a slow decline in the 1970s and 1980s. That’s when people left for “greener pastures”. Since then, it’s been a slow, steady climb.

    Now Boston itself has slightly more dramatic numbers. They peaked out around 800,000 for population post WWII, followed by a fall during the 3 decades preceding 1980 to around 575,000. That’s when all the “factory families” left and the vast landscape of 3-story boxes were replaced by office buildings and waterfront businesses. Since 1980, it’s been slowly and steadily climbing at the rate of about 4% per year to about 640,000. Again, no boom, but they’re not all fleeing the city.

    We’re gaining, not losing. But you are saying it’s the other way around?

    1. We gain population because of the democratic open door policy for illegal immigrants. Illegal immigrations is killing this country. Come here, do nothing and we will give you a place to live, clothes on your back and money in your pocket. Oh and the right to vote. Thats how POTUS was re-elected. Our country was built by immigration but times have changed. Very Sad….

      Our goverment breeds laziness, Everyone has a hand out……

        1. You wanna see illegal immigrants go to Texas, mass is not on the radar for that, it’s to expensive here

      2. I am inclined to agree with you however on the costs and burden of illegal immigration, and its deflating effect on wages over via increase of the work force. It is also very taxing on hospitals.

        However, illegal immigrants do not vote. Voter fraud is so exceptionally rare it is fundamentally meaningless. Look at the statistics.

      3. Lazy is At the bottom and at the top. The ice holding areas at the jails are full. Illegals are deported in a steady stream. The illegals do not enter into the census numbers.

      4. The only problem is if immigrants werent coming here Massachusetts would be declining big time in population. On the other hand the southern states or the sun belt region gain residents everyday from across the country, and there is no change anytime soon, this country’s population is migrating to warmer climates at astounding rates

    4. Boston is gaining, very slowly, but the suburbs r lagging way behind in just about every area but nature, zoning keeps the economy away, Needham had to rezone everything along 128 ir Travelocity was heading out of town, it was close, people in town were upset but Needham wants jobs!!

  49. I will say as a percentage of the US population New England is not keeping up with the population growth of the Southeast and Southwest, but is that a bad thing? I moved back here from Maryland and am quite happy that I did!

  50. I read on the other post Matt Noyes’ note about models and their variance and confidence in solutions. I get what he is writing, but to me all he his doing is saying meteorology has become nothing more than model interpretation and the public needs to become more aware of confidence level in models. I don’t agree, too many of us have become dependent on models as opposed to looking at what the climate actually is in our area and in the areas where our weather is coming from and where the systems will travel through. TK and I both cast some doubts about this weekends system’s impact in SNE as far back as Monday, not because of model data, but because of how t High Pressure in New England and to its north, potential for or against southeastern ridging and conditions out west and the pacific relating to the strength of pacific low pressure systems and rising heights in the western US. Forecasters know how to interpret this but they have become so overwhelmed by model data that they can’t pull the trigger to counter it when their knowledge of the atmosphere tells them they should. It is why I don’t even look at 06z and 18z runs of models beyond 24 hours and for the most part ignore data from the DGEX, JMA, UK, RPM, FIM, and other short range pieces of crap. It just takes time away from analyzing surface analysis, climate observations, upper air charts, looking at analog data of comparative atmospheric set ups in prior years. I am not always right, but I am pretty sure we have become way over dependent on the modeling facet of forecasting.

      1. It is fine, but it is just one more piece of data that is no better than what else is out there.

        1. For the most part I stick to the GFS/NAM/ECMWF and the ensembles of each. Though my former go to for snow accumulation the SREF has been kicked aside because it is so polluted by the NAM. A few winters back the GGEM/GGEM ENS had a real good handle on that season so I went with it a lot. But I can’t say outside of that one winter I have used them with any regularity either.

        2. I read the article and your thoughts and could not possibly agree more. I am not in the weather modeling biz, but I have done mathematical modeling in other arenas and have always been careful to point out that a model is one of many tools. Sometimes logic, reasoning, common sense, experience, and even … dare-I-say-it … subjective judgment have their place at the table.

  52. I have DEFEATED the SPAM BOTS!
    3 hours, NO spam messages.

    First the trolls, then the spam. What else ya got????

    1. Hi TK, I’ve tried posting a couple of times over the last few weeks but my comments haven’t gone through. I hope you don’t think I’m spam. I’ve been around since the WBZ forums, baileyman, etc. I just don’t post much.

      2. Hello, Mr. BaileyMan. 😉

        I know you have posted under this name before so it’s possible that the email was different which is why it went into the pending folder and was probably lost in the mountain of spam. That should not be a problem any longer. Welcome back!

          1. I know, that was a joke based on the above post. 🙂
            Besides, you don’t use enough CAPITAL LETTERS, …’s, and !!!’s to be BaileyMan. 😛
            And I am not really TK. I’m a reasonable facsimile.

            Ok, I’m just kidding. 😀

    1. You win the award for the warmest temp in southern New England this hour. 🙂

  54. I wonder if this coming Mon-Wed or Mon-Thurs could be the last multi-day stretch of below 32F highs for this cold season ??

    1. I think it probably will be, at least a stretch that long.

      Because even with a cold pattern, heading into mid March it’s going to be nearly impossible to keep it that cold ’round the clock.

      1. That sounds good !

        I had briefly switched over to NWS climate data and just for the upcoming M-Fri period of this week, the avg. temp at Logan adds 1.1F.

        42.5F to 43.6F

        Where as during the 1st full week in Feb, a 5 day period only saw an increase of .5F

  55. I am sure it will change, but looking at that radar it almost seems like nothing will come up our way. TK, what’s your call for our fair city?

    1. I’ll be surprised if we find any flakes. That dusting we got this morning was probably about it for the city of Woburn.

  57. Yeah I can’t take immigration/ hating on NE talk etc… talk. As an immigrant which I assume most of you are not you have little to go on. Anyway unless there is a big storm coming you won’t hear much from thanks to Charlie. It’s always one perosn who has a way of screwing it for people.

    1. Was not meant to disrespect immigrants, My ancestors r from Portugal, this country welcomes all 🙂

    2. Agreed, Hadi. To paraphrase Kennedy’s `Ich bin ein Berliner’ sentence, `I am an immigrant.’ We are all immigrants, even if our ancestors came over on the Mayflower. Unless we are native Americans, who also migrated to our continent thousands of years ago, we are all immigrants or sons and daughters of immigrants, or grand-sons and daughters of immigrants, and so on and so forth. Immigration is what makes America great. And that includes all socioeconomic classes of immigrants, all races and ethnicities. No other melting pot in the world is as fascinating as the U.S.. And I’ve lived in several countries, so I know what it is like in more homogeneous societies that lack our diversity and acceptance of differences.

    3. I never brought up legal or illegal immigrants, don’t blame me, I was just complaining about the weather and how the weather doesn’t help New England in population increase. 🙂

      1. I said something after it was brought up that it was a major player in our population increases, if u look above I posted that, just saying, I’m not gonna say 1 more word about this, it’s a weather blog, I’m sorry I side tracked the blog so much, have a good night

    4. Same here Hadi. My husband is a legal immigrant and now a citizen and it is not an easy process. Lots of time and money and trips to the JFK building. Not a subject I take lightly. And I might add that he came from a very tropical place and wouldn’t give up the New England climate for anything.

  58. As much as I want winter over I think we have 1 more storm, idk I can just feel it, it won’t be soon, it’ll be in 2 weeks when we r ready to change to spring, as some of the models say, we will get a 3 or 4 inch snow event, watch, goodnight everyone 🙂

  59. I know this is a weather blog, so this will be my last statement on immigration. We all see the kind of nonsense that is currently happening in parts of Eastern Europe, where ethnic groups often loathe one another and hold centuries long grudges. This is precisely what distinguishes America, and makes us great, yes, makes us better, in my view. Russians who immigrated here, Jews who immigrated here, Ukrainians who immigrated here, Muslims from the former Soviet Republics who immigrated here, all manage to get along. Perhaps not always as friends, but surely not as enemies. Americans get it, for the most part, that our collective destiny is being humans. Humans who may feel one ethnic pull or another, or a religious denomination, but in the end we are humans, living together, working together, playing together, and fighting together (as in the U.S. army, which exemplifies our nation’s diversity).

  60. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the most that it has snowed in a single day in Boston in March?
    A. 6.7”
    B. 9.0”
    C. 12.7”
    D. 13.2”

    The answer is D.

Comments are closed.