The Week Ahead

132 Comments

10:32PM

It’s not really a “big storm” going through the Middle Atlantic. You know, that “big one” that was “supposed to” clobber New England tomorrow? Oh wait, that was days ago when that was a top story. It’s time to separate fact from fiction, and then move quickly onto a look at the weather for the coming week in southeastern New England. Yes, it’s not really a big storm, but a big reaction. There is no powerful low pressure center. This is a large scale reaction of a contrast in air masses and a large area of moisture moving along the boundary. The result may be the same for many areas as if a big low pressure area was responsible, but it’s important to know the difference here.

Talking about a big storm days in advance is risky for more than one reason. Two of the main reasons, in my opinion, are firstly, people hear the phrase “big storm” and lock onto it, and secondly, it’s usually first brought up days before any such thing has even developed. Big storms don’t seem to be born of atmospheric processes anymore, but they are now fabricated by various information sources with an overabundance of data to analyze, or at least glance at. This is not a good thing. It gets ratings, yes. But it also breeds non-believers, and should that be any surprise? The average person is going to remember the “big storm” that was “supposed to” result in a bad commute/day off of school/nowhere left to put the snow/when is winter gonna end?/where is Spring?! potpourri of anger (because we just can’t handle any more of “the worst winter ever”), envy (for our neighbors in distant warmer places), and joy (“yay, I don’t have to do my homework or take that test!”). But this is not what they should be remembering. They should be receiving a little education with each forecast, be it from a blog, a radio, the television, or the internet. Viewers/readers have various degrees of interest. Some want a quick forecast, some want the in-depth analysis. It can be a balancing act to please everybody. On my blog, I commonly start with a discussion of why I expect what I do, followed by a detailed forecast. The aim here is to appease both the “sit-down diners” and the “drive-thru grab & go people”. But the attempt is always made to do so as clearly as possible, maybe more successful at some times versus others. I realize that this is easy for me to do here, since I am not answering to someone that is in charge of getting ratings. But I believe this responsibility falls to all of us in this field, and even those in the ratings business need to find a way to balance the quest for audience with conveying information in a responsible way.

When a storm system is talked about days in advance and doesn’t even exist yet, and is talked about in detail like it’s a done deal, a lock, a “can’t miss”, that is fiction.

We have the ability to do this better, keep it simple, and reasonable. And that’s a fact.

………………………………………………………………………….

Congratulations for surviving my editorial, now to the coming week.

A frontal boundary sitting south of New England will be the running board for all the moisture largely missing the region early Monday. Just some light snow will skirt the  South Coast with minor accumulation. A clearing trend will follow from the north during Monday with fair and cold weather through most of  Tuesday as a narrow cold high pressure area builds southward over the region. A disturbance coming through the Great Lakes will cross New England Tuesday night with a chance of snow showers, dragging a reinforcing cold front southward through New England. This front will not make it too far south of the region, and as a new high pressure area builds north of the region on Wednesday, clouds will likely hang in across southeastern New England. All of the next 3 days will feature below normal temperatures. A slight moderation will follow for Thursday, but clouds are likely to remain dominant as onshore flow prevails between high pressure to the north and a new low pressure area moving from the Gulf of Mexico to off the US Southeast Coast. This low will move northeastward and may be close enough to bring some precipitation to southeastern New England late this week, sometime during the  Friday-Saturday time frame. Another disturbance may pass by from west to east by late Saturday or early Sunday, bringing yet another cold air mass to the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible near the MA East Coast. Periods of light snow possible southern RI through far southeastern MA – up to 1 inch. Lows 10-15 northwest of Boston, 15-20 from Boston to Cape Cod. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds and a bit of light snow near the South Coast to start the day, otherwise increasing sun north to south. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 0 inland valleys to 10-15 South Coast. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Sunny into afternoon then some clouds arriving from the north by late day. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow early. Low 15. High 28.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/drizzle mainly eastern and southern areas. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow and rain. Low 32. High 40.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/rain showers. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 33.

132 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

      1. Well it appeared first because I had to approve the other comment. “Long time listener, first time caller.” 😉

  3. I have to say TK, I have read and enjoyed and listened to many of your editorials both on Facebook, this blog, and in person, but this by far is my favorite. Not only was it well crafted and put together, but it was also very honest and to the point. You do not come across as someone who thinks that you are a better forcaster than everyone else. You are someone who is frusterated that the general public is being misinformed, and you want this miscomunication and manipulation with the media to stop so that people will actually listen to the truth. But TK, because of people like you, people have information that is geared to inform rather than to please. So keep up the fantastic work, and I thank you on behalf of everyone that relies on your words. 🙂

  5. Thank you, TK. Your editorial was needed, though speaking for myself, and I believe the vast majority of people who read and participate on this blog, we’re here because you tell it like it is. No hype, no ratings, no sensationalism. I believe most of us followed you here from the WBZ blog because we appreciate your knowledge and accessibility, and enjoy conversing not only with you, but with other like-minded people. Not only that, but we all share a common love of the weather, and are interested in the science, excitement, and dynamic changes that nature presents us with. I think this blog is a truly wonderful place where both experienced meteorologists and armchair mets like myself can come and learn from one another, and for that, I thank you, and am truly grateful for. We might not all get along, but I think friendships have been formed and we all enjoy what everyone has to say.

  6. Thanks TK !!

    Here we go again euro has a system for Friday. Loaded and cold enough for snow.

  11. Thank you TK – and great editorial comments. I see more mets trying to educate with maps and explanations. I love Emily’s and Flowergirl’s comments as well.

  12. TK – to add to some comments yesterday. I was talking to my niece and asked if she ever read your blog. She said she comes here any time there is a storm threat and reads every single response. She turns to WHW before any of the TV stations and loves the knowledge and excitement of the posters here.

  13. Euro wasnt to drop over 2 FEET of snow in SE MA during the next 10 days….hahahahahahaha

    2. I’m NOT, NOT, NOT , NOT falling for that CRAP again.
      As the old saying goes, I’ll BELIEVE that WHEN I SEE IT!!!!!!!
      👿

  14. Stomach still sick from the model roller coaster ride that was last week. Need a break on the flying dumbo for a few days before i get back on that ride

  15. Tk thanks for the update.

    Enjoyed your editorial.

    What I like about this blog is the fact that you give us the straight story sans the BS.
    When we are all off on a fantasy trip, you bring us back to Earth. JMA often chimes
    in as well to ground us some more. YET, we are still free to fantasize with our what ifs etc. Very enjoyable.

    This is a GREAT SITE!

    Thank you TK for all you do.

  16. So turns out today’s storm didnt happen for us in SNE. That said, i have a hard time faulting TV mets for “hyping” the storm. Three days before, almost every major model was showing a big hit for our area with a good 8-12+”. It wasnt just one run of one model either, there was run to run consistency. Three days out, with the technology available, should be rather accurate. Sure there were ratings to inflate, but I honestly do think they were confident enough to issue at least a story about a possible major storm, BZ in particular had the alarms out at that time and i think it was the right move. It wasnt until just beyond that 3 day period the models starting doing flips and loops and everything short of smoke coming out.

  18. Now where i do find fault is with the independent facebook weather sites and other non-official weather sites (not urs TK), i think we all know the ones i mean, that jumped on the hype train waaaay too early, like 5-7 days before, calling a storm “set” to affect millions. The general public saw and reacted, and unfortunately, majority of those people didnt know any better. IMO it is those types of sites that end up putting pressure on the real professionals and tv mets and tv networks to stay ahead of the game and forces their hand in issuing hype stories about storms and possible impacts days in advance. Its a shame really, that sites like those get 20,000+ likes and funding while really really good sites like this one and TK’s facebook site and other aspiring young mets pages are hardly looked at but offer much more than the garbage on those other sites.

  19. Hi, Vicki and North,

    All is ok – Marc and me are getting over colds and I have been helping my sister with her move which is finally just about finished. So, it’s been busy.

    I have to say that as an example of how these forecasting “big storms” gets everyone crazy and how it affected us. My husband had a dentist appt. today and last wk. they were forecasting snow – maybe not a major storm, but enough that my husband felt, just in case, to re-schedule it. Well, obviously, w/the exception of the Cape, no snowflakes in the MetroWest area that I know – and he could have gone to his appt.

    Also, on my soapbox now – I am tired of this winter. Especially the very cold weather. It’s March now and we should be getting some milder days – at least when it gets so bitterly cold, let there be snow with it. I have to say – I can hardly wait for spring and hazy, hot and humid weather sounds just wonderful to me.

    But – I will add that I do love all the seasons – it’s just that this winter has seemed to go on forever.

    And – finally – with all my complaints – there isn’t anything I or anyone else can do about it!! The weather does just what it wants to do – and I guess that makes it more interesting to see what happens when winter gives up and spring comes in.

    1. Hi Rainshine,
      Pleased to hear you and yours are feeling better! I love the seasons, so much that I don’t ever see myself relocating to a warmer climate. Once we get past this winter, we will all be rejoicing the onset of spring, those warm summer nights, beautiful fall colors, and so on…

    2. I am glad you are improving and that your sister is nearly ready to relocate. Hopefully, things will settle for you and you can be ready to enjoy spring!!!

  21. From what I can determine, the EURO is the ONLY model calling for all
    of those systems to hit us. GFS,CMC and FIM all have a series of OTS jobs.

    What gives with the Euro? I think it needs a lobotomy. 👿 👿 👿

    1. lol, what i get out of that and is notable is the other models still have something, just different outcomes

      1. Right now, as far as I am concerned, the models are in a state
        of shambles. It must be the Polar Vortex kicking the S**T out of them. 😆

    2. If there’s another cold front involved, I think we know the outcome by now – south of the border 🙂

      2. Hadi,

        Re: Euro Loaded for later this week. Let’s see with subsequent runs. 😆

        It has been advertising something in the time frame for some time now.

        You KNOW it’s either going POOF OR It’s going Out to Sea South of us.
        That PV SHUFFLE!!
        👿

  22. Thanks everyone! Very nice comments. 🙂

    I am playing on a new phone so if any weird symbols appear, just ignore them. 🙂

  23. So our friend, the former King Euro has 3 snow events dropping 1-2 feet of snow across SNE between this Friday 3/7 and next Wednesday 3/12. I am not surprised the Euro trended colder with its temp profile for Friday but am skeptical the storm is going to come close enough to be a direct hit.

    I am with you OS and Ace, not getting excited about any of this until there is some model consistency and within 48 hours of the event! I am burned out after the last storm. To think that Euro initially had the bullseye of heavy snow in the Adirondacks, VT and NH and literally shifted it south 550 miles to northern VA in the course of 2-3 days is astonishingly bad. That said, the fact that it is showing an active couple of weeks will probably lure me into extending my eurowx free trial by another 7 days . I’ll have to use my son’s name and a different email 🙂

    And as the others have said, great post TK. There is a lot more to forecasting than weather models. If they are showing a solution that doesn’t make sense with the overall pattern, it’s always best to take your approach – be conservative and keep the extended forecast wording general. And leave the hype to the rest of us 🙂

    1. Nice and I totally agree.

      I’m thinking about actually signing up for that Eurowx.com service.
      What is it $8.95 per month? Wish it had ALL models, but then it wouldn’t
      be $8.95 would it?

      I really like their maps and it is available in a reasonable time frame, considering.

      Hadi, what do you get with the AccuPro service? Just Euro? OR all models?

      Thanks

        2. Ditto. I use the accupro service for work at the annual subscription rate. There is so much info there it is a tad overwhelming.

      2. It is $8.95/month….not bad. I do like all the maps, but wish it had the text output by city.

        Hadi, what does the accuweather pro service cost per month?

  24. Great editorial TK. I enjoy your blog and being part of it. You never blow anything out of proportion.
    I never get excited about a storm until I see winter weather alerts issued. As far as late week as I always say when there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. One thing that looks certain this is not going to be March 2012 when it was the warmest March on record.

    1. JJ, I was in Woodbury yesterday tubing at Woodbury Ski area. Right around the corner from you. Had a good time but saw some scary stuff going on. They require helmets for kids – glad we all had ours!

  25. Mark they have had some accidents this year with skiing. Its a nice place and the cold temps will help them keep making snow. Hopefully they could get some natural snow as well.

  26. Hmmm

    I was looking at the 12Z GFS re: Friday System.

    Look at this surface for 12Z Friday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=096

    And 500 MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030312&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=096

    How can it ever break through that PV influenced Northern Stream? Answer, it can’t!
    So how does the Euro think it will do it??????

    Look where it ends up on the GFS run

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014030312&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=120

    That PV, although it is supplying ample Cold air, is also responsible for shunting
    promising systems OTS well South of us. 👿 👿 👿 👿

    Now let’s see if the 12Z Euro catches on OR still tries to throw it up this way. 😆

        1. I don’t know. It will be interesting to see the 12Z Euro.
          Perhaps it shows some phasing? Let me look at last night.

          Well, I have run into something I don’t understand.

          I looked at last night’s run. IF I look at the 500Mb winds,
          it looks like NO way it should come up here as the winds are Straight out of the West. However, looking at the heights map, it looks PERFECT?

          So I don’t get it.

          Personally, I think the Euro is totally WASTED!!!!

  28. Its not so much the PV itself but the positioning and orientation of it that has been the storm killer here lately in NE. If it was further west or diving further south causing us to be just on the edge of the trough, we would be getting nailed with snow every few days with systems just riding up the coast. But it is literally right over us. Earlier in the winter, the PV extended far into the SE and thats when we got our storms, rotating around and riding up the eastern most part of the trough.

  29. GFS is probably overdoing the northern stream and Euro overdoing the southern stream as per model bias. In the end, maybe it ends up somewhere in between. Closer to the coast than the GFS but still out to sea or a grazing.

  30. I’m very curious to see if any big snow amounts verify in the mid-atlantic. Looks a little disorganized at the moment.

  31. NWS isn’t biting either with statements like this:

    SPECULATING…IF TRULY A FRONTAL DISTURBANCE IS STRETCHED
    ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND COLD-AIR DAMMING OF HIGH PRES REMAINS BACK-BUILT TOWARDS THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS…THEN THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD REMAIN WELL-OFFSHORE SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

    and…

    NOT GOING TO TOUCH THE 03.0Z ECMWF UNTIL I SEE SOME CONTINUITY.

    I don’t think I’d touch it even if it did have some continuity 🙂

  32. I think for the coming weekend, we will have to do what we have done all winter … wait until the last minute. The Euro track record this winter for predicting even a few days ahead has been more than just suspect. The other models aren’t all that much better. It’s all about the waiting game.

  33. From NWS about today’s non-event here.
    https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc1/t1/1888460_584491081645267_1719540697_n.jpg

    While I agree with most of this, i dont agree there was large spread in models. From 5 days out through day 3, most major reliable global models had multiple runs of this storm giving central and southern NE significant snows. Ensembles agreed with op runs as well which was a good indication of higher than normal confidence. It wasnt until 3 days out the models started to really diverge.

  34. Thanks TK for your editorial above. It is too bad that you aren’t on the local TV broadcasts. The viewing public would not be put into a panic days in advance until a major storm was absolutely certain, and even then, I suspect you would put it in the proper perspective like you do here on this blog.

  35. I’ve been hearing about this +TNH we’ve apparently been having most of the winter and it being the reason or one of the main reasons for the cold outbreaks but not the big one snow storm. (yes i got this from DT’s page, i know i was bashing those kinds of pages but while i hate the hype he brings, i do respect his level of knowledge). Does anyone know what exactly the TNH is? TK, wondering if u could elaborate a little bit on that when u get a chance. Many thanks! 🙂

  36. If the cold air is going to be temporarily retreating towards late week, it is just as well for that ocean storm to go OTS since there would certainly be precip type issues.

    Actually, with the cold air leaving, wouldn’t it allow for that storm to come north and nail us with the typical mixed bag of snow to rain, etc…? YUCK!

  37. Hey Longshot,

    Did the WBZ met mention the date and year regarding that March snowfall?

    Was it March 1956 around St. Patrick’s Day by chance? 🙂

    Btw, I did get the correct answer…but it was a wild guess on my part. 😉

    1. I believe it was. There were multiple storms in March of 1956 that occurred on successive Saturdays, causing parade organizers to postpone the event. The winter of 1955/56 was otherwise very ho-hum and mild, analogous to 1996/97. As we know, 97 went out with a bang.

      Note, I was not alive in 1956, but when my father was alive he used to tell us stories about those March storms. Having grown up in the south, he wasn’t accustomed to seeing any snow in March.

      Btw, mallards have found their partner – at least most of them have. I saw a cluster of about 20 pairs this morning. Several days ago, the males and females were not paired up. This morning, virtually all the ducks I saw were. I did see a couple of `loner’ ducks: 1 female, and 2 male, fairly far from the cluster of 20 pairs.

  38. DT is up to his bashing of NE weenies 🙂 saying we all busted on the north trend. But he is getting torn apart bc the storm down south is not living up to his numbers either. But he is not admitting it!

    1. Yes, It certainly has caught on. We were finally smart enough NOT to bite
      on that run. 😆

      Ho Hum….

  41. Sounds like the Pats might let Amendola go. At least it’s a possibility. Might need the cap room for Edelman.

    2. Ugh, what a botch job. So stupid. They royally messed that one up with Welker/Amendola last year.

    1. I just made a business call to Virginia and the office I called was closed due to “inclimate weather.”

  44. I see the euro has come to it’s senses 🙂 this could be it for snow!! If so let’s get rid of the cold which I don’t think will happen anytime soon so we can’t let our guard down. I do think we have a clipper diving down at some point in the next two weeks.

    2. Hadi, I couldn’t agree more.

      IF there is no more snow to come, then BRING ON SPRING!!!

      Don’t bother Wasting the cold and making us miserable for nothing.

      1. Which is exactly why there will be NO spring. The blocking that
        has been missing all Winter will become permanently established
        along about 3/20 and stay parked until Memorial Day or later.
        👿 👿 👿

        You know that’s how it’s coming down.

      2. You guys know better than to say there is no more snow to come. One ho hum run from a model that has had zero consistency doesn’t mean much. GFS has multiple storm threats in the extended. It’s an cold active pattern either way you slice it and we are not going to end up escaping them all. No way we will have a snowless March this year.

        2. Mark, you are just seeing frustration on our parts.

          Not sure about Hadi, But I’d MUCH rather see
          warm weather than continuous COLD weather
          with a parade of storms OTS! 😆

        4. Has nothing to do with runs for me. It is that good old gut feeling based on absolutely nothing but as I said yesterday I hope I’m wrong….I don’t think I could ever tire of storms/weather

  45. I actually have not read anything to indicate wheteher spring temperatures would be above, below or at average. Does anyone know?

  46. There will be measurable and probably plowable snow this month. This will not be a repeat of March of 1979 when we had the least amount of snow recorded in March: a trace. March of 1979 featured an anomalously mild stretch of weather, with lots of dreary days in the 40s and low 50s as I recall. That is not the case this time around. It was somewhat dreary yesterday and today’s not been sunny either because of the storm system to our south. But, in the short and medium term we can expect to see lots of sun and cold. And one of these times either a clipper will hit us, or a low will invade our space. It’s bound to happen.

  47. Has anyone ever flown Aer Lingus? Are they any good? Booking the flights for my honeymoon and they are $600 cheaper than any other airline! Makes me think something is wrong with them, lol

    2. Nothing wrong with Aer Lingus. I’ve flown with them many times. Icelandair and Aer Lingus are currently the discount airlines traversing the Atlantic.

    3. Excellent. Thank you both 🙂 Heading to Italy in June. If I can save some cash on the flights and not sacrifice too much comfort, thats more money to spend on things there!

      1. Oh my. Mac just turned green….literally…with envy. He considers it his “home” having spent his teenage years there. What part of Italy?

        1. My fiances dads family all live there, they’re from Sulmona in the Abruzzi region. I will be meeting them for the first time and doing a 2 week tour around the country.

  48. The CPC continues to show well below normal temps and normal to above precip through mid-month at least.

    If this continues to verify, then snow & cold will still be very much in our future for awhile yet…and could early April be interesting as well? 😉

    1. Thanks for your comment above. 🙂
      I have never been on TV but that would be fun.
      I’d have the conservative style of Bill Hovey (anyone remember him?) but my delivery would be like Matt Noyes with a bit of a filter – hmmm is that a Noyes filter? Sorry couldn’t resist. I used to fear public speaking but no longer. I did radio back in my college days, WLLH radio (Lowell Lawrence Haverhill). I was the Tuesday / Thursday PM forecaster for 6 months – done right out of a booth at U Lowell. 🙂

      I actually have an internet radio station that soon will be linked to the blog and will have pod casts.

      Looking to add graphics to the blog by the middle of this year if all goes as planned.

      As far as this pattern… I don’t see a change through March 15 at least. And it may extend beyond that. I’ve seen a few subtle hints of things that make me believe the pattern may try to break down somewhere around the 3rd week of March, but I’ve seen signs like this of a pattern shift before only to have it not show up for an extra 2 to 4 weeks.

      1. Actually, in terms of coldest winters, this winter 2013-14 is ranked #54th at 29.9 degrees avg. Nowhere near the top.

  49. Someone asked about the TNH (Tropical/Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Index).

    It tends to be positive more often in neutral ENSO and La Nina conditions with the PDO in the cold phase. When it is positive as it has been this winter, you get ridging in the Gulf of Alaska and sometimes into Alaska (this year it was there) and a long flat ridge from the Gulf of Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, as well as frequent cold spells in the interior northwest and north central USA (which we had most of the winter, especially the north central states where Duluth MN had its coldest December-February period since 1875!). Central and eastern Canada is also exceptionally cold in this pattern, with frequent visits of Arctic air into the northeastern USA provided the AO is negative or you have an unstable PV. This winter it was already sitting in eastern Canada much of the time because of cold PDO / +TNH. The reason for the southern snow/ice storms and the frequent snow up this way was the contrast between that plentiful cold supply and the warm air with the ridge from the Gulf to SW Atlantic.

    I hope this is not making it more confusing. 😛

      1. I am not giving up on winter just yet and you shouldn’t either OS. Sooner or later one of these storms just have to come north.
        😀

      2. That’s storm’s a goner but the one over the weekend (although not nearly as potent) has more potential to affect us. In their updated discussion, the NWS actually seems fairly confident in the storm impacting us with at least some snow. 12z GFS had a benchmark track. 18z has got it too.

  51. Having dinner with Mom & Dad .. Mom’s homemade chicken soup, which believe me, is a very filling meal, complete with fresh Italian bread. Great day for it. 🙂

    I will be back after that to update the blog.

    Not too much sun after tomorrow for several days, but the cold will ease up just a bit too.

      1. Yes, mentioned that in my post above – around the Sunday timeframe. NWS seems somewhat confident in some type of impact from the system though model solutions vary widely on how we are impacted. GFS is most intriguing with a benchmark track and light to moderate snowfall.

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