Winter May Last Until The End Of Winter. Imagine That!

160 Comments

7:27PM

Some people may be searching for Spring, but what they are really searching for is a warmer than normal late winter weather pattern. Yup, it’s still winter. And on March 3, there are still 17 days left to the season. But just because Spring officially arrives on March 20, this is not a magic threshold whose crossing means a sudden flip to leafed-out trees, soft green grass, and lots of tweeting birdies. It doesn’t work that way around here, so don’t lie to yourself. 🙂

The fact is this. There is no end in sight to the colder than normal pattern as far out as I can see. What is a little different is that we’re back in a drier pattern with storm threats minimal. We’ll be hearing from disturbances in the northern jet stream while southern jet stream moisture likely stays south of New England. The first disturbance comes along Tuesday night and Wednesday and brings lots of clouds and a risk of a few periods of very light snow with no appreciable accumulation. Clouds will be stubborn to leave as a cold high pressure area sets up shop over southeastern Canada and a broad area of low pressure forms well to the south, with an onshore flow resulting between the two. This will cloud the sky for Thursday and Friday, but as low pressure slides off to the northeast, well southeast of New England, some sun should return at least for part of Saturday. Another northern jet stream disturbance is expected to cross southern New England from west to east Saturday night and Sunday morning, and may bring a light snowfall to the area.

The forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows -4 to 0 deepest inland valleys, 0-10 most areas, 10-15 coast. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Sunshine much of the day but filtered by increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 22-30, coldest in hills northwest of Boston, mildest along the immediate shoreline. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light snow late. No snow accumulation. Lows 12-20, coldest interior valleys. Wind light N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy very light snow. No snow accumulation. Highs 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 22. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers in the morning. Low 18. High 32.

160 thoughts on “Winter May Last Until The End Of Winter. Imagine That!”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Yes, indeed, Winter will end when it wants to end and not a day sooner. 😆

        1. My favorite months are January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, and December.

          My favorite seasons are Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter.

          🙂

  6. You always make it a point that winter can and does last into March and even April, but there are many many winters that can and don’t last well into March 🙂 obviously this year isn’t 1 of them. Trying to be positive that’s all, thanks for your hard work, and I don’t look forward to the cold. Thanks again 🙂

    1. Only stating the obvious when I do. 🙂

      Boston, that is, Logan Airport, averages 7.0 inches of snow in March. The suburbs much more than that. The majority of the month of March occurs during winter.

      Boston’s average snow for April is only 0.3 inch, so yes it’s much more rare to have winter weather in that volatile month.

  8. Thanks TK. You reminded me of a funny school story. I’m a special ed teacher, so I have the same students for several years. Every year, this boy would wear shorts on March 21 because it was the first day of spring. There could be 1,000 inches of snow on the ground and he’d wear his shorts, and then be mad because he was cold. Interesting, though–this winter, absolutely everyone I know is complaining about the snow and cold. And then I turn on the TV and it’s going to be BONE CHILLING cold–so cold, I fear that the blood may freeze in my very veins and then what? I’m getting tired of it. It’s cold–put on a sweater. Good night everyone! My daughter leaves for Arizona tomorrow, 82 degrees today. Thank you Old Salty–obviously we didn’t need to get her out early. Of course, she may freeze to the front steps on her way out, but I’ll keep my hair dryer handy, just in case.

    2. I’m thinking of buying a backup hair dryer to help anyone who wants help 🙂

      Glad it worked out for your daughter.

      Interesting that you work with special needs students. It takes a “special” adult In many respects I think what we think are special needs are actually others using a portion of their brains that those considered “average” haven’t figured how to use

  9. March 2009 : -1.4F

    March 2010 : +5.0F

    March 2011 : Exactly avg.

    March 2012 : +8.4F

    March 2013 : -0.6F.

    I was just curious what some of the recent, previous March’s have brought. Perhaps in the recent past, we have been spoiled on at least 2 occasions and thus, this start to March seems extremely cold.

    These numbers are from Logan and come from Taunton NWS climate data.

      1. We had an April back in the 90s or was it early this century where it was well into the 90s (temps). I seem to remember April 1978 (?) was also unusually hot. Why is it that and it happens on occasion and is not the norm that people think it is the rule?

        1. Perhaps because we want a warm spell so badly after 4 or 5 months of either chill or darkness, that we think warmth happens every April magically.

        2. I can remember a few springs in high school baseball where it snowed in April and there have been more than a few opening days at Fenway that were better suited for football.

  10. Of all the cold temperatures today, the one that really floors me is …….

    40F ……… in Brownsville, TX …… On March 3rd …. at latitude 25.9 N.

    Unreal. I wonder how far southward, down the Mexican coastline that cold air pushed. Its one thing to deliver us New Englanders a chilly N wind thats about 40F, but how about the folks of that region who are used to stifling heat and humidity most of the year.

    1. That is a telling fact, Tom. It’s about as cold right now as it gets in early March, all across the middle and eastern half of the U.S.

      Tonight’s low in Boston will be below the lowest temperature we recorded during the non-winter of 2011-2012. What’s more remarkable is the persistence of cold.

      It’s going to take a long time to melt the ice that has formed on our lakes and rivers. I was talking to a rower who said that they’re thinking of using an ice-breaker soon to break up the ice on the Charles. Otherwise, it’ll take too long to melt, and they need to do the actual spring races on the water and not in the gym on a rowing machine!

      1. Indeed ! It should be interesting to see how late into astronomical spring it takes to get to “ice out” on various waterways this year.

    2. Speaking of Texas winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings for parts of south Texas with the threat of some icing.
      Other note of interest Philadelphia, PA all time low temperature for March is 5 degrees. Going to be interesting if that is broken tonight if they get clear skies along with a fresh snow pack.

  11. Some of the ice persistence will depend on sun exposure, on one side of my house I have nothing on the roof and on the other there is two feet of snow on top of a 10 inch ice dam.

    1. We have the new rubber roof which I’ve said a few times. It gets only early to mid morning sun. We have discovered ice forms on the entire roof to a couple inches thick and then slides down. Then it falls onto the deck in huge chunks. Right now there is a lip about 10 inches extending beyond the edge of the roof. I’m a bit nervous about what it will do

      Also the big roof we have keeps making very loud banging sounds.

      1. I keep hearing loud banging sounds coming from my roof as well, usually in the mornings

        1. Makes me feel better. Since its the roof over the master br, I did remind mac of the duck and cover we learned in the 50s. 🙂

  12. TK for the record I love all seasons too… but unlike my children, I love some seasons more than others. Fall >> Winter >> Spring >>>> Summer (Triple H days are brutal, otherwise I would move this up).

  13. summer = winter > fall>spring.

    spring= allergies with wet yucky days. . people think of spring as 50s to 70 guess what that stuff does not come till may peeps.

  14. Mine were not listed in order because my favorite periods of the year include 2 seasons each:
    October through December.
    May through July.

    Vicki, the hot April was 1976. Boston had a high temp in the middle 90s on Easter Sunday and Marathon Monday.

  15. I love fall first, summer, winter and then spring. Yes Charlie winter is in 3rd place 🙂 I love snow but don’t love the brutal cold.

  17. TK, quite a discrepancy between your forecasted high of 33 on Saturday and the one issued by BZ which is 46 … along with gratuitous TV met comment … “And we might even reach 50.”

  18. It does look like late this weekend / early next week parts of the plains could be much milder. Never to make it east though!

  19. Thanks, TK.

    I love all the seasons for what they are. However, I don’t like this extended cold weather. And as I and some others have said – at least if we had snow with the bitter cold it would be worth it.

  20. June’s my favorite month by far weatherwise, and after that … there’s room for debate. At the end of my list is most surely February.

      1. I’ll Take July and August. June can be a schizophrenic month.
        However, when June is good, it can be REALLY good. Problem is, it’s often BAD.

        1. Oh, wait, was I supposed to take weather into consideration when I chose a favorite month 😉

          We had a June that was not in 2011? and one in 1982.

          Otherwise I was thinking about those born in the month of June 😆

  21. Good morning all,

    Soapbox if I may.

    Driving to work this morning, the person driving the vehicle in front of me drops
    a cigarette butt out the window. Does that ever PISS ME OFF!!!!

    What kind of MORON does that?????????????????????

    There, all done. Thank you.

  22. OK We have our fantasy football, well this morning the computer models are
    playing fantasy weather with us!!

    The Euro and the Canadian want to deliver a very substantial system (SNOW) on
    3/12 into 3/13. The GFS does NOT have this system. It has an off shore smaller
    system somewhere in that time frame.

    As I said yesterday, I’ll believe it when I see it and not before. 😆

      1. I refuse to listen until we are less than 8 hours away from an event. Too many disappointments lately! However, I thank you OS for all of your maps and model analysis. You do a fine job sir.

  23. I will believe that when I see it. BORING weather pattern as the cold rules!!!
    My favorite season is winter followed very close by fall. Spring is my third favorite and summer is my least favorite only because of the 3 H weather we get. Best times of year for weather here in SNE May and mid September to end of October.

  24. This winter, models and maps are somewhat reliable about 10 minutes before the event occurs. 🙂

  25. Let’s see how long it take before certain FB pages declare that storm a monster storm of the century.

  26. Saturday looks like a nice day but 50 may be a stretch.

    Several storm chances in the long range models – I think the pattern becomes less boring after this week, but we’ll see. Wouldn’t let our guard down for some accumulating snow on Sunday either. GFS has been fairly consistent with this feature.

    Winter is by far my favorite season. Love to downhill and xcountry ski, ice skate, track winter storms, and even enjoy snow removal. Summer is second followed by fall, then spring is a distant last – my allergies usually do me in for a good 4-5 weeks!

  27. I would be happy if one of those storm threat’s deliver accumulating snow.
    Mark I am interested to see if we get more snow this winter than last year for inland CT. Last year we had just over 56 inches. This year were at 50.1 inches. Shoreline once again with more snow and since 2000 I believe they have had more winter’s with above normal snowfall than below normal snowfall.

    1. I think we exceed the 56 inches at those reporting stations, JJ. For me personally though, I have no chance of breaking last year’s snow total. We had an epic 100″ snow total last year in Coventry with over half of that falling between the Feb 8 blizzard (32″) and the March storm (21″). The latter really being a private snowstorm for NE CT and eastern MA.

      This year I am sitting at 62″ at my house.

      1. That storm last March was so weird with the low pressure center being 600 miles offshore yet widespread double
        digit snowfall totals for a lot of eastern New England and in the Northeast part of CT.

  28. Interesting analysis of the upcoming pattern from one of the meteorologists on the American Weather/New England forum:

    The ensembles keep amplifying the western ridge out toward mid-month as we get closer. That is going to make it more favorable for a slower moving system and/or a coastal to develop. You start buckling the flow in March and some big stuff can occur.

    My guess is that someone is going to see a pretty big event in the northeast between now and St. Patty’s Day. Who knows where yet, but the amplified flow certainly argues for things to start picking up. The trough axis may be too far east initially…like between now and the next 8-10 days…then it could get interesting. Somewhere in the 3/12-3/15 time range, the ensembles have hit storminess pretty hard. They can’t really agree on exactly when right now though…the GEFS want to argue more like 3/14 while the EC ensembles like the 3/12 threat…the 3/12 threat has plenty of cold but I do see some problems with it.

    1. Quite interesting indeed. MEANS NOTHING, until when/of it actually happens.
      😆 😆 😆

      We shall see.

      Now that many of us would just as soon see SPRING, we’ll get clobbered
      and we’ll have snow on the ground for the Marathon! 👿

    2. Just took a peek at the 12Z GFS regarding 3/12.

      Ha ha ha he he he more of the same ol S**T

      PV shunts yet another promising system OTS.

      Yes, the same system the CMC and EURO were advertising as a big hit!!

      I wonder which way this will go? Any guesses?

      Watch the 12Z Euro and CMC runs to see where they have that event.

      ODDS are they’ll have it OTS! 👿

  29. Winter ills! Had a nasty upset stomach this morning (the battery-acid kind). Just made some ginger/honey tea, and by golly – it works!!! Thought I’d share in case anyone else is suffering from the same. I got the flu shot, so hope it’s only a passing stomach bug!

  30. Interesting that the 3/12-3/15 time frame we are talking about is the anniversary of you know what.

    Joe Bastardi on Weatherbell says “there is a strong signal for a Strong Winter Storm in this time period”

    Matt Noyes says he is “cautiously optimistic” about a storm threat in this time period as well and has snow next Wed and Thurs in his 10 day forecast.

    TK and JMA, interested to hear whether you agree with these thoughts about the upcoming pattern and threat for another significant snow event.

      1. The international models were focusing the threat more on the 12th/13th while the GFS liked the 14th better. We all know these storms are going to appear, disappear, and go through mutations between now and then. More important is to look at the overall pattern in this time frame, which SEEMS to be looking a bit more favorable.

          1. It sure was – my son was 16 days old…..that’s why I remember the one on the 13th well. It took my husband a very long time to get our daughter to the hospital to meet her brother.

            1. Certainly memorable for you then!

              I was a junior in high school and we did have school that day. It snowed like crazy the last couple periods including cloud to ground lightning strikes not that far away (there were a few strikes on homes). The only time I ever remember lightning like that during a snowstorm. We had a solid 10-12 inches of snow, much of it in the afternoon. When we left school I was able to lean over at almost 45 degrees to the wind and not fall over!

              1. Wow – great memories.

                I vividly remember the March 29 storm and listening to the tremendous and constant cracks of tree branches as the weight of the snow broke them. The only other storm where I can remember the same sound was the Halloween storms. I suspect the May 9 storm must have been the same but we were in an apartment that was not surrounded by trees. And I know the south shore experienced that last winter. It’s an eerie sound.

  31. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg
    Current snow map, we r starting the year this Thursday in Jamestown and Newport ri, we r behind a week from normally where we r usually in March, but that’s ok. Late March will be for catching up. Like I’ve said it’s never easy starting the season up, but the 1 thing is, everyone’s happy to be seeing me and getting a call from us, they’ve all said it’s the sign of spring, I said its cold out but it’s time.

    On a side note tru green called me up a week ago and asked if we were interested in selling our customers at 50 cents on the dollar, lmao, no way!!! Maybe 80 or 90 cents on the dollar, but not 50 cents.

    As long as the top 2 inches is soft, u can apply only lime apps, do not apply a fertilizer, u will delay your growth into late April as well as push your lawn into nonsense stress after it’s been dormant for 3 months, good day everyone and think spring!!

  32. The 1st 25 yrs of my life, winter was #1 fall was #2 summer was #3 and spring was #4

    Now today it’s Fall #1, summer #2, winter before Feb, #3 , #4 spring

    1. May finally relax the pattern – but I don’t say that with high confidence.

      1. Whoa…….you mean the beach report for April might be less than we had planned for ?? Oh well, it’ll keep the crowds to a minimum 🙂

          1. And you laugh. We actually will be at the beach for the month of April. Yes I am odd but to me the beach is as special in all seasons as the seasons are. Does that make any sense?

    1. Hadi,

      That’s last night’s 0Z run, correct?

      OR is it today’s 12Z run already?

      Eurowx.com is not out that far yet.

  36. FWIW, the 12z Euro maintains the storm idea for late next week. In fact, it has trended west and is a coastal hugger now with rain for SNE and 2 feet plus of snow for Upstate NY and VT.

    1. EXACTLY!!! I was about to post that.

      What’s worse than an OTS system? Why it’s a COASTAL HUGGER for sure!

      Cold and OTS, Cold and OTS, cold and OTS.
      FINALLY a system breaks through and it’s an INSIDE RUNNER!!!

      Of course, in a way it’s probably better that it is depicted as such. That’s a long long long way in the future. Loads of fine tuning to come and something to watch. 😆

      1. Yeah, considering the Euro shifted 500 miles in track over the course of 2 days with the last storm, I think we have some time to track this one 🙂 Important thing at this point is that the storm is still there. 12z Canadian looks almost identical to the Euro as well though GFS is showing nada.

        1. Yes Sir. This “may” be the BEST watcher of the entire
          season. That system is portrayed as LOADED by both
          the Euro and CMC. IF we can just get it to benchmark for us it would be something to behold. 😀 😆 👿

  38. Favorite seasons from first to last: Winter, fall, summer, spring. I take joy in observing nature in all seasons, however.

    OS: Don’t worry, it will snow and rain and mix this month, I promise.

    Charlie: I’m surprised spring is #4 on your list, given that you so much want it to be spring. This is probably related to your business, so I do understand you’d like spring to come sooner rather than later.

    2. I don’t look forward to day after day of dismal raw weather, especially after winter, it’s like torture, I have what u would say a love hate relationship with New England, by mid to late March I will be getting very very ansie. Take it easy josh 🙂

  39. By the way, for some beautiful, delightful spring weather, go to Amsterdam where it’s currently in the low to mid 50s, partly sunny. Tulips are coming up early, given the non-winter over there (barely a frost at all). Other flowers are in full bloom. In 2-3 weeks light green leaves will start to grow on the trees. When I was in Holland, spring was my favorite season. More or less predictable, very tranquil (unlike fall in Northern Europe), and incredibly colorful.

  41. Hi everyone,

    I introduced myself to TK last night but haven’t had a chance to comment until now. I am a high school senior who will be majoring in meteorology at Plymouth State starting in the fall. I love winter weather and weather in general and have followed you guys for a long time, even back when you posted on the WBZ blogs. I also work as an observer at Blue Hill occasionally on the weekends. I live in Wrentham so not far from most of you. I really like TK’s forecasts and his style and this seems like a great little community. He has allowed me to post here, so hopefully I can make some contributions! Many thanks to TK for letting me become a member here!

    7. WXWATCHER, Welcome aboard. I am the oldest and craziest among the group. If you can put up with me, you’ll be fine.

    1. I can see it happening in areas with thin or no snowcover. May be a little tougher to get there in deeper snow areas and higher elevations. But that will be a day that the frozen snowpack will finally start to soften up.

  44. In know it’s only the 12Z GFS, but WTF???????

    These models haven’t a clue.

    I almost don’t want to look any more. I’ll simply look out the Window.

    Btw, is the snow tomorrow Ocean effect snow? OR is something else producing it?

    2. do you mean 18z? I saw it. A whole lot of nothing going on. Positioning of trough over the east is not good sending everything out to sea. Cold and dry – kiss ’em goodbye!

        1. Doubt it. The Euro has some pretty good support from its ensembles which are cold and stormy next week as well. But we’ll see how long that lasts. The GFS is going with persistence of pattern and its hard to argue with that. I’m not getting too excited about this yet until the GFS starts showing a more favorable upper air pattern. Right now, it just has no northern/southern stream interaction. We’ll see if there is any improvement on the 0z run.

  46. Thanks for the warm welcome everyone 🙂
    It’s great to be here. Looking forward to taking part in all the model watching and forecasting and nowcasting that goes on here. I’ll admit, I watch the models almost as intently as OS does. That’s not to say I believe them all though!

  47. Euro does have support from the ensembles which is a good thing. Several of the last storms the op euro did not have much support which we know is a red flag.

  48. Watch the jet stream and how it buckles early next week and that should give us an idea where a storm will develop. I have no doubt something develops.

  49. Interesting from Pete B that “culminating snow has been over for a couple weeks” love Pete but disagree with that statement.

            1. I just checked too. And I think its hard to argue we did reach winters peak and are on the down slide. In no way does it mean winter is over

  51. Nothing signaling a surprise tomorrow, but I’m always wary of one when a NNE wind with cold air flows onto the coastline south of Boston.

  52. Pete B’s statement is bizarre. He also declared winter over 15 days ago. Yes, we haven’t had accumulating snows recently, but it’s not as if the temperature wasn’t right. We could very well have had snowstorms in recent weeks. Most of the conditions were actually quite favorable for snow. The problem was a PV shunting storms too far south and east. The more these mets declare winter dead and over, the more it rears its head in anger. The last 9 days have been very wintry, just no snow. I haven’t experienced a persistent cold spell like this at the end of Feb/beginning of March ever in my lifetime. It’s most definitely winter outside. And snow could very well hit us this month. I kind hope we get nailed a couple more times, so that some of these mets have egg on their faces.

    1. Joshua I never saw him declare winter over. Do you have a reference. Also Hadi said culminating. To me that means winters peak. I’d not find that odd

        1. Here is what Pete said:

          So let me offer you this. I believe we’re nearing an end to the biting cold. The overall pattern seems to be relaxing (as you’ve probably seen in the 7 day) and time is running short for Old Man Winter. We’ve passed the culminating snow event a few weeks back, now it’s time for the cold to shuffle away too. Think of it like a bag of popcorn in the microwave. When it’s nearly done, the popping slows as the heat reaches the last kernels in the bag. Well, there are only a few left, and the final seconds are winding down.

          2. “Now it’s time for the cold to shuffle away too” implies he thinks that our chances for significant snow have already disappeared for the winter. Risky statement. He may very well have egg on his face!

            1. Several on-air guys declared winter over early last year, after the February blizzard. Then along came March. Oops.

  56. Hmmm, if the 0z euro is right, maybe I have a shot at hitting 100″ of snow this season after all. 🙂

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