Reinforce, Retreat

263 Comments

2:53AM

A cold front will attempt to reinforce cold air over southeastern New England today, and will have some success, basically since it’s already cold. The air behind the front is not really any colder than the air ahead of it, and the front is really just going to be responsible for lots of clouds, a few snow showers, and a wind shift today. High pressure builds down from the north with fair weather Thursday and Friday, along with a slight temperature moderation. A storm developing south of New England is expected to pass southeast of the region and out to sea while a couple disturbances in the northern jet stream move through southeastern New England from the west over the weekend and early next week. The second of these may lead another shot of very cold air into the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Only minor local accumulation. Highs near 30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing north to south. Lows 15-20. Wind light NE to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-20 from valleys to the coast. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow showers late. Low 20. High 43.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 20. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 15. High 35.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

263 thoughts on “Reinforce, Retreat”

  2. Thank you TK.

    0Z Euro changed its tune over previous run.

    Wants to really DUMP on us late in run. Still waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
    to far off to worry about. Total period snow shows 30 inches from Boston N&W!!!
    Sure and I’ll win the lottery too! and perhaps elephants will fly. 😆 😆 😆

    CMC has lost it totally and the GFS has a much lesser system.

    Oh well, time will tell.

  5. Last night Eric Fisher mentioned OCEAN EFFECT snow along the coast with
    some communities possibly picking up 2 inches today. He even had Boston in the D-1 inch range.

    Don’t see it on Radar and so far Boston wind is straight from the North.

    Will be watching. 😀

  6. Euro is bound to get one right. I have a feeling we get the big one before the end of winter. Big storms are needed to change the pattern.

    1. Maybe the next one is it. Getting late after the middle of the month. Although this winter it could come in april.

  9. If the euro misses again on showing a big storm for multiple runs a few days prior, there will be some serious questions that need answering on its overall performance over the past few months. I just dont understand how a model can be so darn good for so long and then all of a sudden turn into the….GFS. It was always the GFS that would show these fantasy storms far out then just go poof. Seems like they have switched roles.

    1. The only difference this time around is much support and trends in the atmosphere. All mets are on board for some sort of east coast storminess. Details to be determined. Will euro or something close verify. Who knows.

      1. Last “storm” the euro had plenty of support from its ensembles and from its atmospheric outputs for a time too. Mets were all on board, even TK was on the significant storm train, saying chances are very low something doesnt happen in that time frame. Well, we remained cold and dry. I guess i just remain skeptical. Its over a week away and even if it was 4 or 5 days away i would still be skeptical. The atmosphere might be in a better set-up but we are still relying on models to give us that information. The trend has been these great storms showing up, esp for SNE, but they dont materialize. Thats the only trend I see.

  10. It used to be, when the euro showed something major, it was like everyone stopped and gasped and took it seriously and followed it for days. Now, i dont know anymore. Just cant seem to get excited for anything it shows.

  11. Rather than look at any models look at what the jet steam is doing and where the trough/ridge looks to set up. Should give us an idea if a storm is even possible to come up the coast. I see a very good possibility a storm develops and comes up the coast. What is till unknown is strength, precip type etc… At this point I would lean towards a decent size storm to potentially major.

    1. True, but we are still relying on modeling to give us placement of jet stream and other future atmospheric conditions. We cant say, hey, today the jet stream sets up great for a storm to come up the coast! We don’t have a storm coming up the coast today, we are trying to forecast something 7+ days into the future. Reality is, that far out, we only have model output to go on when forecasting those things into the future.

      1. I will say too, this entire winter, there has not been a set-up conducive for a big time storm like the one depicted on the euro (and the euro has wanted to show many of them like this). The atmosphere just isn’t right for that type of storm. The outcomes have been weaker, quicker, and further south all winter long. QP’s have been overdone for the most part, especially in this colder pattern.

      2. Agree but I think it’s easier to forecast the jet stream pattern etc vs looking at a specific storm development 7 days out.

        1. True true. It is a lot easier to discount something if the surface and upper levels dont match up.

  13. I haven’t checked the radar but wonder if there is something over Logan. Three large jets have gone over our house in a pattern I am not familiar with and much lower than I am used to seeing.

          1. Thanks, OS. I was thinking there might be some weather over logan but this most certainly must be the reason.

  14. Thanks tk, what a beautiful weekend we have coming, Saturday will be in the 50’s, as well as Sunday into the 40’s, looks like we have some consistent mild days ahead, the possible storm that’s way way out, my guess is as good as yours, I’m rooting for nothing or plain rain.

    The start of the road tommorrow, we r working Thu/Fri and Sat this week, it’s officially the beginning of the Lawn care season, don’t worry about the possible snow/rain storm to finish winter, look for the next warmup, I found it!! This weekend!!

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg

    Boston south and east r bare ground, by this weekend IMO everyone in the Boston area will also be bare ground. Spring is not far away 🙂

    1. Bare ground or just about bare ground in plymouth county and southern bristol and all of the cape, but very steep gradient from plymouth to norfolk counties. From bare ground to 6+” still hard packed on the ground in a very short distance. The suburbs of boston will hold onto their snow well past this weekend IMO.

      1. I still have a deep 100% coverage snowpack in Sharon. Even in sunny areas ground still covered. This weekend will indeed take some, but not all, not even close.

          2. Its true, i foolishly bet double or nothing. I was so sure that last storm would produce more than 6.” hence why im so skeptical of any future storm.

  15. Tom,
    Any “ocean” snow down your way? Looks like it on radar.

    BTW, TOM called for this days ago. 😀

  16. I can gtd you no bare ground here in JP. The snow pack has been holding strong and areas that don’t see sun forget it. But I will enjoy the warmer weather.

  17. There will not be bare ground in Framingham either. We have a solid 8 in most spots with a considerably amount more in northfacing locations. We will have snow on the roofs.

    1. snowing at a pretty decent clip in Methuen… parking lot of my school is covered, its amazing all the kids “are we going home early” already. I tell them ” maybe we should stay late, so everyone is not on the road and is safe” they strongly disagree.

  21. Pretty decent band of snow moving in from the ocean down around
    Cohasset and scituate. 😆

  24. We’ve had on and off light snowshowers ….. With the ground and air temp so cold, what little has fallen has stuck on the grass. I cant call it a dusting, but it is visible enough to be seen.

  26. Snowing very lightly but steadily here in Dorchester. It is “moistening” the pavement and probably the rooftops as well but no white coating as of yet.

  27. I don’t know how the Euro will end up, but so far it looks MEGA JUICY for
    the 13th, even starting on the 12th. Really JUICY. Gulf is WIDE OPEN for this
    baby. HUGE COLD HIGH to our North. Nice set up. We’ll see.

    1. BIG TIME!!!!

      On again off again screwing with us again. I just want to flush it down the toilet!!!

  31. RE: The Euro and other models for that matter.

    Today is 3/5. The event is on or about 3/13.

    That is 8 DAYS into the future.

    The runs are going to change all over the place.

    We needn’t be concerned just yet.

    Here’s what we know.

    Looks like there will be storminess around the 13th or so.
    A significant system has been present on Three (3) consecutive Euro runs.

    Sit back and enjoy the ride. 👿 😆 😀

  32. re: Today

    Hmmm me says…

    Look at this radar:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.246&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=5&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.246&centerx=367&centery=386&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Is that significant band off shore trying to move on shore?

    That would increase the snow rate substantially.

    As it is, looking really pretty out there. 😀

  33. What a monster phase on that run of the Euro. Yeah the run is west now (tracking over NYC) but that sort of track variation is not to be unexpected 8 days out. The important thing is that the idea of a huge storm is very much there and the Euro is in fact trending stronger with it. 980mb low over NYC and absolutely loaded with QPF. And did you look at the snow map? Widespread 3-4 feet in western NY with a bullseye of 48-54″ south of Rochester…insane!! It’s like the NAM on steroids.

    1. Imagine if that monster turned out to be a benchmark storm???

      YIKES!!!

      You’re correct. It is there. Has been there and will likely really be there
      and probably a substantial storm system. Now if the track can be ironed out. 😀

    1. I acknowledge this set-up, if indeed it will be the set-up for that time frame, could produce a big time east coast storm. However, this has been the mean set-up for most of this winter. Yes we have had our share of snow in SNE, but from different types of storms. Even in that set-up, we have yet to see the type of storm showing up on some models, the deep, slow-moving, large precip shield type of “classic” storm. I don’t see anything different this time around. Why now? What makes this time potentially different i guess is what i want to know. I know im being stubborn on this one and I usually get excited about a big storm threat, but until it gets closer, and ALL models are in fairly good agreement on it, I’m not gonna give it much thought.

  38. All I take from euro is there is storm way too early for any details. One run it’s a benchmark storm the next it’s an inside runner.

  39. Ace – The set up is more extreme this time around – PNA/western ridging is soaring next week (+3SD) and it is happening when the NAO is forecast to fall and go negative which is something we haven’t seen much this year. Teleconnectors like the MJO in phase 8 are favorable. Model wise you have the Euro showing a bomb with good support from its ensembles, the 12z Canadian has a Miller B type storm with significant snow in NE, and you have the GFS which doesn’t show anything major at the surface but has taken a big step towards the Euro with a much more amplified pattern. Things have not looked this good all winter for a large storm potential so I disagree with you there.

    I am reading from Bastardi that there are some analogs here in the Euro Ensembles to the Superstorm of 93. Not that he or anyone is predicting a repeat of that but it raises some eyebrows.

    Now of course, even if the big one does occur, there’s no guarantee we would get creamed here (as seen in the 12z Euro) – it will all depend on where/when the phasing occurs and storm track. As Hadi said, those details are impossible to determine a week out.

    1. Not sure about a truly negative NAO, but much closer to neutral than we’ve seen in a while

          1. Ahh, gotcha. Even that though still shows a downward trend around that time. I liked allan huffman’s page when it was free, it put all the different models and their teleconnections into nice easy to read graphs

    2. I will admit, i don’t have a lot of knowledge and experience looking at certain clues and analysis and modeling, so im not totally basing my thoughts on that. Some of it is just out of feeling and the kind if winter we’ve had so far. I do understand and acknowledge ur analysis. We shall see what happens. It is a watcher for sure 🙂 If something big happens im sure ill be all in and totally forget i ever doubted it, lol

      1. I am no expert either, just learning things that I read on here and from meteorologists on other blogs. I, like you, have doubts in the back of my mind if anything, just because we are more than a week out but do feel this is a better chance than we have had in awhile.

    1. Mark I think he’s great no hype and easy to understand. He’s been more right than wrong this winter.

  41. Snow band keeps drying up as it heads towards the foxboro area, only some light snow, no accumulations so far

  42. Look like the little bit of snow we were having is about to come to an abrupt end.
    😆

  43. We are up to a dusting now, cars coated but the roads hanging in there. A steady, light snow falling. Perhaps visibility is around 1.5 miles.

  44. I’d rather not see hype for a potential storm 8 days down the road. Comparisons to `93 seem premature. Mark, I did like your analysis, and I do see potential for a major rain/mix/snow storm. Surely not an unprecedented event in New England. In fact, March is when the mountains often get a ton of snow, while the coast is often a mixed bag. Bastardi, Margusity, and the others really like to hype things up. They can be entertaining. Certainly Henry is. But, I’m never quite certain if it’s for effect or it’s real. My favorite over at Accuweather is the Canadian Brett Anderson. He seems less prone to sensationalism.

    Vicki: I shouldn’t have picked on Pete Bouchard. He seems like a friendly man. I do recall him saying a few weeks ago that the long-advertised warm-up (which fizzled, or at least didn’t exactly warm things up for long) was the straw that broke winter’s back. I believe that’s what he said. Well, even in the absence of snow, winter has come back with a vengeance. One of my co-workers, who is from overseas, said she saw a met (could have been Pete B) declare that winter was on its last legs. And this was a few weeks ago. Well, ever since then, this co-worker has been complaining that the mets were wrong. And, she’s right to say that. They were wrong, or certainly misleading. Most people associate winter with cold and not necessarily snow. And, it’s been bloody cold outside.

    1. Well, climatologically speaking, winter is in fact on its last legs, however, there is still plenty of room for at least one more snowstorm between now and mid-April.

      Both March and April have long track histories for snow.

    2. Joshua, thank you 🙂 it isn’t just Pete. I am not a fan of criticizing any of them. Pete is absolutely right that winter is on its last legs. It may roar a few more times and his comment doesn’t mean it will not. But spring is in fact right around the corner. The sun is getting warmer. I think his choice of the word culminating (which is 100%) accurate may have been misleading. Many seem to have misread as accumulating. Culminating to me means the peak and we are past the peak…….right? But again of its misread or a forecast is misread that really is the fault of the reader.

      Just my two cents. I have this loyalty/protective thing that I understand can bug others…..

  45. You know based on the fact that there is a large storm depicted on the Euro and it is being shown on the anniversary of the Superstorm that analogs are going to be thrown out. It seems to happen almost every year. While there are some comparisons, this is not quite the same setup. And in no way do I think anything like that is going to pan out.

  46. I am no expert either and continue to learn but I do believe is this the best set up for a big storm we have had all season.

    I met Pete B as well and I think he’s great but statement like the one he made cause the average person to say look at all these mets they are always wrong.

    1. I agree on Pete. I’m sure he’s great but he’s really shooting himself in the foot. Only himself to blame for people not believing his forecasts.

        1. I dont either. The equivalent to this, I think, would be to say on Sept 4th that we’ve likely past the worst heat of summer (a generalization) and that it wont hit 90F anymore this year (more specific). The odds with these type of thoughts are on your side, does it mean they’ll be correct …. No……… Like we, (well I do) like to see the sportscasters offer opinions of what they see, I appreciate a meteorologist who throws an opinion or a hunch out there. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  48. As I said yesterday a watcher for later next week. I hope its not a rainorama. I would rather have a fish storm than a rainorama.

  50. Every time I look at the models, they r trending warmer, and some places especially south of Boston could see 55 degrees!!! IMO 🙂

    1. Just tapered off in Marshfield a couple of minutes ago. Just before it stopped, it was snowing pretty good.

  54. It is COLD out there today. Deep bone chilling throughout ur body cold. It has to be the dampness in the air combined with the cold temps much like adding humidity to the air in summer makes it feel more uncomfortable.

  55. Pete Bouchard said when anyone mentions snow or cold, they just turn on a deaf ear, I can’t agree with him more

    1. So then if somebody is warning someone like that about a coming storm or late season cold outbreak, they won’t know about it, because they didn’t listen. 😀

      1. Yup, but I think he’s was more or less talking about the mood towards talking snow 🙂

        1. Lol I agree with your favorite met, and u still don’t agree with me, funny stuff Vicki lol

  56. Good evening blog readers, lurkers, and frequent commentators. 😉

    Today around eastern MA was one of those examples of it snowing for a good part of the day but not accumulating due to the power of the solar radiation coming through the clouds. However, there were some minor accumulations, which was about all that was expected. Just some snow patches leftover, and maybe a few bands set up across Cape Cod tonight with north wind and very cold air, localized 1 or 2 inches there.

    Cold & dry & bright tomorrow, then moderating for 2 days back to 35-40 Friday, 45-50 Saturday except 50-55 potential in areas without snowcover! Only one day though, back to the 30s Sunday.

    Next week? You know my practice – no detail on a potential so far in the future. But I will say that the particular potential mid to late next week is one I’m most concerned with since last winter. I see ingredients that if they blend together just right could be quite volatile. That’s all I’ll say for now, because anything else is pure guessing.

    Have a great evening!

    1. Thanks tk, my hunch is snow to rain for your southern third of your forecast area, but the way the winter went any things possible, have a good night

      1. Oh dear. That was the evil twin, Tom. The gold twin says boooooooooo. Or is the other way around. Darn it get confusing being a Gemini.

    4. Thanks TK. I hope that is the big one that a lot of us snowlovers have been waiting for this winter.

  58. Every once in a while on facebook, I’ll read a post on how cold its been and how big a joke global warming is.

    Haha, well the joke may be on them.

    Since the frigid air and “polar vortex” are displaced further south than usual, guess whats in its place ….. Of course, above normal temps. The arctic currently has its 4th lowest coverage of ice, (in the short satellite era) and in the arctic itself, even though temps are below zero, they are running single to double digit degrees above normal. Upside down weather.

    Also, did anyone see what happened in Beijing last week when a simple high pressure sat overhead for a few days ? (I’m assuming an inversion was in play). The smog was unbelievable and thats whats being thrown into the atmosphere daily.

    Yup, keep laughing folks. 🙂 🙂

    3. We can do all we want to try to polluting the air, but if countries like China continue to pollute the atmosphere. Theres not much that can be done.

    4. Tom I’m the 1st to say just bc of a couple cold winters climate change or global warming isn’t happening, the problem with it is, that half the country burns there trash in backyards still, and I’ve seen with my own eyes people in the south dump oil anywhere, I do what I can to feel good, but unless everyone’s in board, it’s like peeing in the wind 🙂

      2. Mac said dumping oil may occur on a small scale but it is not widespread. He is also assuming you are talking about engine oil. That being said, and with all due respect, it has to start somewhere. And it has. We have a river running right through this state that you wouldn’t want to stick your foot in years ago. Just a small example.

        1. I respectfully disagree with Mac, it’s super widespread in all of rural America, it may be on a small individual level, it’s everywhere, drive down highway 55 from St. Louis to Poplar bluff Missouri, there r peoples homes 200 gallon oil tanks on the sides of the roads bc people have to pay to get rid of them, my wife has told me that when they do the crop dusting they have people/kids holding up flags so they can apply pesticides, and no they don’t wear mask, rural America is much different, they say take a shower you will be fine lol take it easy 😉

          1. Charlie mac tests water and soil from all around the world for oil contaminants. He and his company have written most of the ASTM and IEC standards on askarel. He never said it didn’t happen. Recently a guy in SC was caught dumping askarel. It simply is not the rule.

            1. As far as pesticides. I won’t disagree. We spend something like 6600/second in finding cures for pesticide caused disease. A logical person would think we’d stop the cause

            2. You should have seen how much pollution there was when the Mississippi floods, you actually see people oil tanks floating down river amongst many many other pollutants, anyways I don’t want to keep paying into this if the whole country isn’t on board, that’s my take, back to the weather 🙂

  59. Regarding global warming, it’s important to keep in mind that measurements of temperature are taken globally. And this winter has been mild worldwide. 4th warmest January on record. February data should be coming in shortly. I expect that February will be in the top 10 in terms of warmth. Clearly, it hasn’t been mild on most of our continent, but elsewhere it’s been quite mild. Please note, I do not ally myself with either camp on the global warming debate. While I think there has been a trend towards milder global temperatures, and the melting ice cap is one sign of that, I also concur with experts who suggest much of the trend is cyclical in nature.

    1. It could well be cyclical. However by the time we know for sure, it’ll be too late. I wish they’d change from calling it global warming to calling it let’s clean up our planet because we are destroying it. Is that a tad too long? How about be smart ??

      1. So true. George W. Bush was not my favorite President. And he did little to protect our environment. Yet, he stated on several occasions the importance of being “prudent stewards of our natural resources.” I.e., old-fashioned conservation. Our politicians should be reminding us of this, and they’re not. It’s too bad.

  60. I echo Tom’s comments above.

    The pollution in China is rampant. The Chinese government – hardly a trustworthy regime – reveals little about pollution levels to its people. Ironically when the Chinese authorities talk of pollution they tell the people it’s a good thing. Yes, communists lie no matter how capitalist they are.

    In part, we as Americans are responsible for the upsurge in Chinese pollution because we are the biggest importers of cheap Chinese-made goods (often under the auspices of U.S.-based companies) . In some ways, the factories around cities like Beijing are reminiscent of 19th century Britain at the peek of its Industrial Revolution. Cities like Sheffield were horrible places to live. Soot everywhere. Bellowing smoke. All that grime and pollution didn’t appear to cause climate change. But, 21st century production of CO2 and other noxious gases is of a different magnitude. This may indeed be contributing to global warming.

  61. Charlie… My next blog title may have to do with moderation, because after 1 cold day tomorrow, it gets underway .. for TWO WHOLE DAYS! 😉 Actually it looks like we’ll be avoiding true Arctic air for a while, but we have to watch for a return visit by a piece of it Tuesday into midweek next week, which may set things up very interestingly for a potential storm.

    1. I love these teases. And my bad twin would absolutely love one big storm before winter welcomes spring. Or maybe its my good twin. Darned but that confuses me

  63. TK, what did you mean by your comment above in regards to next week?

    “…But I will say that the particular potential mid to late next week is one I’m most concerned with since last winter…”

    What would be particularly concerning with this storm? Realizing it is pure speculation at this point, and that you may not want to elaborate. The comment though raised my eyebrows a bit…

    Either way, thanks as always for the info and updates…

    1. I think it has the greatest potential (as far as this far in advance is worth) of any storm since last February (so including all of this winter). But that’s a very distant crawl out on a limb for me. Just call it a hunch for now.

      1. Thanks TK and thanks for asking JRW. At first I read you’d been concerned since last winter but knew that wasn’t possible then thought you must have meant since last feb 9 storm. Intriguing

  64. Morning,

    The Flipflopping Euro is back to A snow event for us. Still a very potent system,
    BUT not the system yesterday’s 12Z run showed. In fact, the energy appears
    to split into 2 lesser systems, the 1st of which passed just outside the benchmark
    and the 2nd passes harmlessly OTS well South of us.

    Here is the Euro Snow map for the evening of the 12th into the 13th. Still 15-18 inches,
    so nothing to sneeze at:

    http://i.imgur.com/YjJhMAH.jpg?1

    CAVEAT, Last night Other models depicting OTS scenario once again. WIll look
    at latest now. Have a great day all. 😀

    2. Looking at the Euro, I see a less intense storm and a possible chance for some rain. Looking at GFS, I see the storm much more to the east.

      1. ZERO RAIN with latest Euro run. 😆

        A bit of rain mid-storm with CMC.

        Nothing with GFS

        A little lighter snowfall with FIM and DGEX.

  65. Is the OTS scenario in PLAY yet again for this next system?

    Seems that is is at least a THREAT.
    Loads of model divergence on this one.

    We’ll keep watching.

  66. Did anyone else laugh at this morning’s WBZ video of Todd’s forecast? Check out Todd’s head in the frame that is displayed before the video is played.

    I always enjoy reading this blog. This is the type of deep and insightful meteorological contribution that I am able to make!

  67. I agree with TK that the potential week away storm has more of a chance of being a significant impact event in SNE than the other 3 threats that have been advertised over the last 10 days or so. It will be interesting to see how various Mets handle this storm because they have been burned 3 times in recent days by advertising events as likely to happen and likely to be significant as far as a week out. I foresee a more cautious approach this time around, even though this one might have the most climatic support of any to turn into something significant in SNE.

    Plenty of model issues to workout such as how the ECMWF keeps moving two highs to our north by about 500 miles from run to run. But otherwise the set up from a climate stand point seems about right for a phased system impacting SNE about next Thursday. But as TK says, mother nature is going to do whatever it wants to do.

    1. Thanks for your insight JMA.

      Tk and now you on board for Something. Of course it is way too early
      to iron out the details.

      Given that, what are your thoughts on an OTS scenario? Is that in play, in your opinion? OR do you think it is more likely a track somewhere between a Lakes Cutter and a benchmark?

      Many thanks

      1. I don’t mean to ride the fence but we are a week out and all scenarios are on the table, but I would say an OTS or a more southerly path is more likely than a great lakes cutter scenario.

        1. JMA,

          I understand about a Week out totally.
          And what you answered was exactly what I wanted to
          see. Just your feeling this far out.

          Models are mixed on a more Southerly path and/or OTS.

          Will keep watching the trends.

          At least the set up appears better this time around.
          That’s something, but it does NOT preclude an OTS
          outcome.

          I just don’t want to see another OTS system, but as JJ says, Better that than a Lakes Cutter or Inside Runner.

  68. Did not get to update last night or this morning. Will do so in the 4:00PM hour today.

    1. Danger of this is that it starts to track to the West of us but then turns
      Eastward SOUTH of us. It could easily change and come right over us.

      1. It looks like the GFS is showing this as more of a piece of energy riding the boundary layer once again with no phasing. It might be showing its usual bias of squashing southern stream energy but this depiction has little to no southern stream influence. No big moisture carrying low forming south and moving up the coast.

        1. BUT, still shows a good amount of snow. Overdone much like the last event that went south of us? In that set-up, very possible again.

  72. Not anywhere close to the strength of the euro, and not much if any southern stream interaction, but still puts down a nice ribbon of snow across all of the viewing area. Has moved the timing up considerably to Wednesday. I will say, its nice to see the GFS starting to see this. We’ll see if more runs still have it.

  73. 25.8 with a slight breeze. Absolutely spectacular pure blue sky. WE have a new client in Scituate and I understand the sun has disappeared down that way.

    2. Notice a few things this morning:

      1. Even though it was 10 Degrees, the Sun felt really warm and while
      I was driving to work the Sun was already as high in the sky as NOON
      in early January.
      2. Observed a beautiful Cardinal. Was it ever singing its heart out.
      3. Heard an extraordinary number of birds chirping.
      I really can’t remember that many birds around

      I think we have a resurgence of the bird population. NICE!

      1. The birds have been very vocal, OS. I noticed that as well. We had an owl hooting night before last too which I find incredibly exciting.

        When I headed out with the dog early morning, even though it was cold, it has the feel of spring.

      2. Agreed OS…and we don’t agree often 🙂 It was in the low 20’s earlier and the sun felt much warmer. I was surprised!

  74. Good afternoon from Newport ri, we have started spring limes, ocean cliffs here r beautiful, looking like a beautiful weekend for a cookout 🙂

    1. Enjoy it. After Saturday, temps will nosedive 10-15 degrees in the following days. It’s never going to end.

  76. Birds may be vocal, but still no sign of the red-winged blackbird. Unusually late. Makes sense given the persistent cold. Maybe they’re all down at Charlie’s house.

    1. I have noticed a lot of plow damage recently now that a lot of the snow on the sides of the highways and main roads has melted enough to reveal the roads.

      1. I swear it’s part of a plan to give themselves work to do in the Spring and Summer 🙂

      2. Sidewalk plow cleared a sidewalk in front of a neighbors house that faces main street. Only problem is she doesn’t have a sidewalk in front of her house. And she keeps her lawn in pristine condition. It’s totally torn up now.

  79. Only trend i can pick up on with the euro (jokingly of course), 00Z runs are a bit hit of snow for all of us, 12Z runs are a rainorama. Benchmark vs. through central New England

  80. Yep, Euro is back to the monster phased storm solution with a track over NYC. Snow to rain situation for SNE and up to 3 feet of snow in the interior of NY.

      1. Euro only goes to hour 240 so not much further past the storm but no real indication of a pattern change after the storm. Temps look to moderate a bit but there is still big ridging in the west and it looks to be brewing up another storm in the plains around 3/16.

    2. Amen to that. The only thing I can say is that it is a better track than
      yesterday’s 12Z Run. A few more back and forths and perhaps it will
      Zero in on the correct track. It’s still 6 days out.

      The scary part is what you indicated, a PHASED system that is truly
      LOADED with GULF moisture. If this ends up tracking to the Benchmark
      AND it stays this loaded, it could be an Historical March snow storm in these
      parts. Certainly NOT likely, but something to keep an eye on. 😆

      1. Not a likely solution. I’d be interested to see the Euro and GFS ensembles – I’ll be more are east/south of the operationals than north and west.

      2. If the trough sets up further west and we end up way out in no-man’s land on the eastern edge, i could see that being a plausible outcome. Euro almost looks like it wants to do that but there’s a front coming through at the same time. If that front is delayed i could see it going even more west of us.

        1. Sure, anything is still on the table, i.e. the storm could still go west of us, but I highly doubt it would go so far west to become a lakes cutter. Trough would have to retreat big time for that to happen and with us getting a reinforcing shot of cold air just prior to the storm advancing, I don’t see that happening.

    2. Are we going to get constant updates on your job on a daily basis bc I don’t work in landscape and it really doesn’t impact me. 🙂 🙂

      1. sorry my updates annoy you. you constant updating us on models for weather sloutions that may not happen annoy me

          1. Perhaps the landscaping updates can go on the gardening blog. I see no harm in model updates on the “weather” blog. 🙂

  85. For the bird talk….
    my friend saw a snowy owl last week
    last year saw 6 marsh hawks
    saw 2 red tails.
    only the birds that stay through out the winter here are here no summer or migrating birds are around yet. marshland are filled with migrating birds. Like someone said above. red winged black birds are perfect indicators for warmer weather.

    1. Matt his one did a succession of three hoo-hoo-hoo (not drawn out) with about 7 seconds between and then repeated. Does that call sound familiar???

  86. Euro has flipped flopped from each of it’s last 3 sets of 00z and 12z runs. Pointless to even consider anything at least until Sunday. On a side note I sent an email to euro folksasking them to send it to N. Attleboro benchmark very close to Charlie’s house.

      1. However, i just read the article, and it is very well written. FWIW, the author does not believe this will be another superstorm of 93. Pattern doesnt quite match up. They actually think what will inevitably happen is the two streams will never phase, stay split, and the bulk of the moisture will go OTS south of the area with minimal impact.

  88. Hey, Maybe the set up does not compare to Super storm 93, however, in terms of
    impact to our area, it could actually be WORSE. Something to think about. 😀

  89. The Superstorm is in a league of its own when it comes to winter storms. It is the biggest storm to affect the east coast with snow from Georgia to Maine along with severe weather in Florida.
    Its a watcher next week hopefully it will be a snowrama. The only good thing with the EURO run it does give some accumulating snow before the changeover. NAO is around neutral the time of this POTENTIAL storm threat the same position it was in for the blizzard of 2013.

    1. I was 10 years old for the Superstorm of 93 and i gotta be honest, i dont remember it at all. Just goes to show if u werent significantly affected by it, and most south of boston weren’t affected in a major way, at least in terms of snowfall, then u tend to not remember.

      1. It was a Saturday when the Superstorm hit I was 9 years old. The snow came up to my knee caps. I remember a
        former forecaster said on Wednesday the big khauna is coming on Saturday and the big khauna did in fact come
        that Saturday.

      2. Ace, trust me, it was NO big deal here. A very nice Winter
        storm to be sure, but NOTHING out of the ordinary.
        Boston area picked up something like 12 or 13 inches.

        What made that storm such a big deal was the HUGE area
        impacted and heavier snow well to our South and West.

    2. That 1993 was huge in the area affected, however, it was rather a routine
      snow storm here with some wind and added excitement of thunder snow
      and thunder sleet at the end.

      I’m just saying IF this comes together the way the 12Z Euro depicts it
      and the track changes to be close to the benchmark, 36-42 inches of snow in our area would make it MUCH worse than the 1993 storm. In fact it
      “could” potentially be Historical. 😆 😆

      LIKELY NOT to be that, just saying something to be watched carefully. 👿

  90. I do think we receive some snow from this next storm comin midweek but my 1st guess is snow to rain, but we shall see, beautiful weekend in store, enjoy!!

  91. Ok southshore folks…..where can we meet and line up with our hair dryers just in case there is a big storm next week? Last year we had to cancel our March vacation down there b/c of damage in the Feb 9 blizzard. I really would not like to have to cancel April this year. I don’t mind it at all inland – just would hate to see the damage on the shore – and not only b/c we are supposed to be there.

    1. Sign me up Vicki!!! Let’s meet at the Bridgewaye and figure out a plan for those hair dryers!!!

  92. I’ll go out on a limb and say next week’s storm will not pass west of us. My fear is actually that the system ends up much weaker than shown and only grazes us or completely misses us. The 12z GFS may actually be doing an ok job modeling it. It’s easily cold enough for snow but it’s not super strong and it’s fast moving, hence “only” about 6-10 inches. At this range though, who knows.

    1. I would love a 6-10 incher! A lot better than a slushy couple inches followed by heavy rains and winds.

      1. It’s a gut feeling and we have been down this road so many times this winter when something looked promising
        several days in advance only to be a weaker system or a fish storm. I don’t see a fish storm with this and I think we
        see some sort of impact. I hope I am wrong and I would love a big storm before we close the books on this winter.

        2. I’m with u there JJ. We have been fooled many times this winter. While I’m still skeptical of the euro’s outcome, I will say, today’s 12Z GFS brought me in a little bit. It’s had a better handle on this type of pattern and I think its solution is very plausible.

  94. What i do remember very well is the winter of 95-96. What makes that winter so insane was aside from all the snow, it could have been a lot more! I remember at least 2 or 3 good very warm windy rainstorms mixed in there among the snowstorms. And even some of the snowstorms ended with a lot of rain.

  95. The reason I disregard the EURO and it’s current track is that is has close to a foot or more for parts of NC and SC and that’s not gonna happen IMO.

    I think we are ripe for a storm, I do think like Wx W said weaker than the EURO but stronger than the GFS is showing and no rain. Nothing imo indicated rain with a fresh cold high coming in. Maybe rain down in the mid atlantic but not here .

    1. I was half asleep this am but aren’t those areas due for some nasty icing? Today? The way the winter south of here has gone, as impossible as it seems, I’d say anything can happen

  96. Food for thought. I said the GFS has had a better handle on the pattern we’re in, and i still believe that, however, with the NAO forecast to move down into the neutral zone (no Romulans allowed), I wonder if the euro will perform better with that set-up 💡

  97. At 6 days out, my confidence is greater in a significant storm than it has been at any other point this winter at this time frame. This pattern is much more amplified this time around and that helps the northern stream energy to dig more, increasing the chances of a phase with the southern energy that could create the big one (Euro solution). However, even if the timing is not right and they don’t phase, the northern stream energy has enough dynamics to create a significant storm in its own right (GFS solution), just not the monster the Euro is showing. The model biases are showing themselves here. But either way, something materializes.

    1. I’m starting to lean in your direction Mark of at least something. This one doesnt look like its disappearing from the models.

  98. Superstorm of 93 was very memorable for me. I was a junior in high school in Amsterdam, NY (about 25 miles NW of Albany). We had 27″ from the storm and much higher drifts. It was the biggest winter storm I had experienced in my life to that point. It happened on a Saturday and we had no school until Wednesday of that week due to storm cleanup (pretty rare for Upstate NY!)

    1. Two of my college roommates grew up in Gloversville, NY and they have told me many stories about that storm.

    2. I remember my inlaws were visiting friends in Europe for the month of march. They even heard about it several days ahead there and called us daily to see what the forecast was. In addition to wondering about us, their home at the time was in charleston sc along the ocean so they were worried about it

    3. Most memorable aspect of that storm was walking the dog and jumping
      out of my skin when a cloud to ground lightning bolt hit near by and the
      thunder shook the ground. Accumulations were NOT impressive to me.
      Nice to be sure, but NOT impressive. About 12-13 inches or so.

      The storm tracked just about over Boston, so it introduced some sleet
      and a touch of rain near the end.

    1. I can see a weak one, but we’re in a long term regime of the PDO that doesn’t correlate to long, strong El Nino episodes. They tend to be of shorter duration and muted, so I am not in agreement with the paragraph describing all the major impacts. Any El Nino can have some significant impact on the weather, but if they are looking for a repeat of 1982, it’s not likely any time soon.

  102. Not surprised that the euro ensembles show it further SE pretty much a benchmark storm.

    Charlie it wasn’t to be rude but I think talking about the models is exactly what a weather blog is about and if that’s annoying then clearly you are not on the blog for weather. Your landscaping work would fit perfectly in the gardening section where we can see what’s the progress in that area.

  103. Blog is updated!

    …

    The comments section of the blog is for any weather-related comments, and of course we do go into other topics now and again (sports, music), as is normal and fine.

    I only ask that anybody commenting remain civil. You will not always get along with everybody, and may disagree on any range of topics, but as adults we all carry the responsibility of keeping it civil between each other. And if that is not possible, the next step would be to not interact with the person that you dislike.

    Thanks!

    On to the next blog. 🙂

Comments are closed.