Simple, At First…

336 Comments

5:39PM

Pretty straightforward weather pattern to describe for the next several days, then a complex medium range (thank goodness it’s too early for detail).

A bright cold Thursday – probably felt warmer than it was with the higher March sun. But another cold night is on tap as high pressure crests overhead, bringing a clear sky, calm wind, and dry air, allowing the temperature to fall easily. Then, legitimate moderation of air mass takes place on Friday and Saturday as high pressure slides eastward off the coast, but at the same time a developing storm system passing well southeast of the region may be just close enough to bring some rain to portions of Cape Cod and the Islands. A cold front will pass by Saturday night with a few snow showers and a return to cooler, but not too cold, Sunday.

When we get to next week, things get more complex. A warm front approaches Monday with lots of clouds, and a wave of low pressure rides eastward along it, passing by early Tuesday then dragging the front southward as a cold front, introducing more cold air, and setting up a potential winter storm for mid to late week as a larger storm system may impact the region. Many days to monitor this possibility…

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows near 0 inland valleys to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Increasing high clouds, thickest in the afternoon over southeastern MA and RI. Highs in the 30s. Wind light variable to SE.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain possible over Cape Cod and the Islands. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy southeastern areas early otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers at night. Highs in the 40s. Wind variable becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 25. High 30.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Snow or rain likely. Low 30. High 38.

336 thoughts on “Simple, At First…”

  3. Thanks TK! Looking forward to springing forward this weekend even if it means I lose an hour of sleep.

  5. Daylight “Stupid” Time will not only mean one hour’s less sleep but also that all the wx models will come out one hour later, and in turn, a one hour delay in getting updated forecasts and other info to the general public regarding next week’s potential storm.

    Why Americans went along with Congress changing DST 3 weeks earlier back in 2007, sacrificing sleep for a lousy extra hour of evening daylight, I’ll never know. 🙁

    Not to mention, extra weeks of dark mornings…just when they are finally starting to get light by 6:00 am. Now come Sunday, it will be “early January” again…UGH! 🙁

    Now back in my day, DST didn’t start until the 3rd Sunday of April. That was just right IMO. 🙂

    OK, I am done with my annual DST rant. 😀

    1. :). Remember back in the 70s when they changed it to January. Was it 1974? I remember sitting at work and watching the sunrise from the window

    2. I agree Philip. I liked the change from late April to early April, but not so crazy about the additional 3 weeks now in March. Of course, I’ll love it Sunday night and despise it Monday morning.

    3. I like the new dst bc it’s daylight longer in the evening, plus it gives hope to us that r looking for early spring. 🙂

      1. Mac says the same thing. Maybe that’s proof that opposites attract. Actually I don’t mind the time change now either

  6. Not to mention all the different kinds of clocks there are with different ways to set them. Just thought I would mention next weeks event feels different to me and I hope I’m wrong it’s time for spring. As always thanks TK!

  11. Thanks TK! Evening all 🙂
    All aboard – I’ve reserved my seat for another crazy winter roller-coaster ride! Hopefully, this one is a hand-raiser, right till the end!
    Bernie Rayno’s really good! No drama, no hype! He’s too funny at about 06:43 regarding his drawing 🙂 HA! Great explanation w/ his take on the GFS and EURO.
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/video-threat-for-a-snowstorm-next-week/655578741001
    Again, thank you for your well-wishes. Every time I thought I was all better, I would start feeling crappy again. Nasty little bugger! Was able to get some work done today, so I think I’m good to go, now 🙂

  12. 23F, 24F along the coast ….. 26-29F inland. Light east wind at the coast. This was around 3-4 pm.

    I think we had a seabreeze today …… Thats springlike. 🙂

  13. The darkness in the early mornings will go away very quickly, not at all like it did in Jamuary, as day length is now increasing very quickly. My personal benchmark for the beginning of civilized day length is sunrise before 7 am, and sunset after 5 pm. We’ve been there about a month.

    Sunrise will be at 6:58 a week from Friday (March 14th). That combined with sunsets creeping towards 7pm seems like a good deal to me. 12 hours of daylight on March 17th!

    The next thing I’m looking forward to is buds, blossoms, and baby birds. And a little warmth…

    1. :). Its that transition again where, no matter how hard it is for some to let go of one season, the next season is too tempting not to welcome. Again, I cannot imagine living anywhere that you can’t experience that.

      Nice comment Amy

  14. It’s gonna be a crazy 4 days watching the models and pattern set up. I think we are in for a moderate to major storm. We should have a pretty good idea by Sunday night.

    Enjoy the nice weather this weekend. I for one am looking forward to warm weather!!! I will get a taste as we head to Orlando on the 28th. Hope I can bring some warmth back with me.

  15. HPC precip totals from day 1-7 has us close to 1.50 qpf and from what I can see it’s all from the late week storm.

  17. Also looked at euro weekly and apart from a few scattered average days or slightly above average days the pattern looks cold through early April.

  18. Boy it looks really active on the euro monthlies plenty of precip and mostly below average temps.

  19. 0z Euro back to a direct hit for us with a 980 mb low tracking near the benchmark. Widespread 1-2’+ amounts across all of New England except the south coast and extreme northern areas.

    Low position at 7AM Thursday over the Delmarva:
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=231070

    By 7PM Thursday, low is east of Cape Cod:
    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=231071

    Snowmap:
    http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k248/vertum1/Capture_zpseb41b678.jpg

    0z GFS track is weaker, south of this, and more of a grazer. However, GFS ensemble mean is NORTH of the operational run.

    Only 11 more Euro and 22 more GFS runs to go!!

      1. That’s showing 18-21 inches for Boston. 24+ N&W

        WOW!

        However, other models NOT on board with this.

        As Mark indicated, GFS weak and to the South.

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030706&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=144

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030706&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=174

        re: CMC

        Can barely determine where it is and what there is passes to our NORTH.

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132

        3 models and 3 divergent results.

        One a monster hit, one to the South and one to the North.

        Go figure.

        Now we’ll check the FIM

  20. The split jet stream is creating long range nightmares for the models.

    There does seem to be hints of cold, high pressure arriving from the north prior to next week’s event.

    This year though, that seems to be accompanied by a very strong sinking of the northern jet stream that supresses everything.

    I do agree that some of the bigger, larger scale atmospheric players seem to be forecast to be different this go around, but it shall be interesting to see by later Sunday if our region is still under direct hit scenario.

    1. GFS run is somewhat disturbing and makes me wonder IF that or something
      close to that isn’t the ultimate solution. In other words it supports what you
      just said. The cold Suppresses the system to the South YET AGAIN.

      Still plenty of time. I’d like to see more model agreement. This is NUTS.

  22. But cold doesn’t look deep and dense which can cause suppression. A lot more to go before having any idea.

    1. Yes, the models are all over the place. But if we look at the SCORE card
      of the big 4:

      Euro – Monster Hit
      CMC – Weaker, passes to the North
      GFS – Weaker, suppressed to the South
      FIM – Weaker, Suppressed to the South

      Might just as well past the 4 models on the wall and fling a Dart at them
      and go with the one it hits.

      More time is needed to zero in on this.

      Given that, the Euro has been ALL OVER this like flies on S**T!!!!!
      Run after run after run. Sure there have been run to run shifts in the track, but it has maintained a very strong system throughout.

      Onto the 12Z Runs!!!!!

      Maybe, just maybe the Euro will be correct for once this Winter.

  23. I think the GFS has been moving ever so slightly west on successive runs, but does have it as a weaker storm. Probably too far out for models to have a firm grip on it at all, not to mention we have been in model hell all winter. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more “model swings” along the way.

    On another note, models … as much as they can be trusted … hinting at another storm on the following weekend.

  24. BTW,

    EURO ensemble mean looks Strong and supports the operational run:

    http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwfens/2014/03/07/basis00/namk/pslv/14031300_0700.gif

    Hmmm, CMC mean supports a big hit, not anything like the operational run.

    http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cmcens/2014/03/07/basis00/namk/pslv/14031312_0700.gif

    The GFS ensemble mean is WEAK useless piece of crap:

    http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ens/2014/03/07/basis00/namk/pslv/14031300_0700.gif

    1. Here are the CMC ensmble members for 144 hours:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=144

      for 156 hours:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=cmc_geps&stn=PNM&hh=156

      GFS ensemble members at 144 hours:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&hh=144

      at 156 hours:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&hh=156

      As you can see, there are some ensemble members that support a big storm,
      even with both of these models.

      We have some more runs to sit through. So curious to see how this shakes out.

  25. Just because a model does not show a huge storm next week does not make it wrong. Look for consistency in small features, they will make a big difference in the final out come. I’m not looking at anything until the 12z runs on Sunday and even then will be taking with a grain of salt.

  26. From NWS:

    WE CAN SAY THAT FORECAST INFORMATION AND TRENDS FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM MIDWEEK NEXT…BUT
    IT IS FAR TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS.

  27. It may be hard to believe, but the pollen count could rise to over 4.0 by Tuesday which is considered to be in the low-medium range. The storm, if it materializes, will then wipe it away.

    1. No wonder I have been having problems with allergies. My grandkids and kids too. Do you know what type of pollen?

  28. maybe the euro will get over its sickness and actually be right . Though what i think will happen is that the front moves through pushes it out to sea . Just based on whats its been doing the past few weeks. All the storms seem to be further south than forecasted

  29. I think we see some impact but a big storm the EURO is showing is very low. I hope I am wrong since I want winter to go out with a bang with a major snow producer.

    1. Look how far north into east-central Canada the ensembles keep the northern branch of the jet stream.

      Based on the large sampling of winter so far, I am suspicious that the northern branch of the jet stream will end up being that far north.

  32. javascript:newpage(‘RAX’,’N0R’,1)

    Doesnt this bright banded, heavy precip look like its falling directly onto the southern part of the Appalachian Mtns ? I wonder if there’s any localized flooding or very heavy, wet snow going on in these locations ??

  33. 12Z GFS NOT very impressive at all.

    System passes too far South.

    Surface:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030712&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=141

    Snowmap:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=168

    Strong signals that NOTHING is determined just yet.
    Several more runs before we know anything at all.

    Just about time for the EURO 12Z FLIP FLOP to an INSIDE RUNNER. 😆 👿

  34. 12z GFS stays the course with a weaker storm, southerly track. Looks like a moderate 3-5″ storm on that run for pretty much all of SNE.

      1. Well, for me it was. Hey, that could be the solution, who knows.
        I doubt it, but we shall see.

        1. Both models are being stubborn. Just can’t get the GFS to phase as it wants to hold that southern stream energy back too long.

        2. The Euro handles the southern stream energy pretty well – who knows, perhaps it is onto something. Certainly routing for the Euro solution as it would be a heck of a lot more interesting to track. Though the GFS verbatim isn’t bad and a nice, late season (non-crippling) snowfall for us.

          1. I was looking at the GFS 500MB charts.
            FUNKY.

            This sure looks like a COLORADO LOW as
            depicted by the GFS. I don’t LIKE that origination point for a New England Storm.
            They OFTEN end up as Lakes Cutters or
            Inside Runners. Hope that isn’t the trend.

            At least the GFS didn’t take it that way.

            Either way, it’s fun to watch and track. That’s
            what we do.

            I’m sure we’ll get a chuckle out of the Euro results.

            Hang on and enjoy the ride.

  35. Certainly at this point, the model runs on next week’s storm are completely reliable. 🙂

  36. 12z Canadian and UKMET are in agreement with the GFS. Keep the streams split and we just get the more progressive northern stream system. Let’s see if the Euro caves at 12z or holds its own.

    Regardless of what the model consensus is by end of day, I would take it with a grain of salt. The pieces of energy responsible for this potential storm are still way out in the western Pacific in a data sparse area.

  42. And so, the only thing we know about next Wednesday and Thursday is that its March 12th and 13th, respectively.

    How much money is spent for each model run ….. scrap em and put the savings towards the nation’s debt. We’re better off looking out the window.

  43. Here’s the 12Z Euro Snow Map. As Mark indicated, the 12Z run has it track
    just a little bit closer. Sharp gradient NW to SE with Mostly RAIN on the Cape and Islands, but Boston still getting 18-21 with 24+ just N&W and jackpot 30-36 Inches
    Berkshires and Southern VT.

    http://i.imgur.com/JRZWbfm.png?1

      1. BTW, I subscribed to the Monthly Service.
        For $8.95 per month, can’t be beaten. So far I’m liking it. 😆

        1. I’m on my second week of free trial using a different email and password 🙂 I will probably sign up for the service as well but wait for next winter. I don’t check the models nearly as much over the summer.

          1. I don’t either, EXCEPT, when Severe Weather
            is on the Horizon OR a tropical System is in
            the cards. Thus, I signed up NOW.

    1. Interesting discussion.

      The “potential” is there. Will it come together? Who knows? Time will tell.

      1. Indeed.

        Perhaps, (though the models arent indicating it), a phased intense storm eventually progressing into the north atlantic could be a hemispheric pattern changer ???

  46. i love winter… but we had plenty of chances to get hammered (when it was seasonally acceptable lol) i love snow, but we can see the light of spring ahead, time to track thunder storms. 🙂

    1. One would think that the Euro “could” at least get one correct this Winter.
      It sure has been ALL over this one for days!

  51. How did the EURO do on the 2 bombs in mid February ? Especially the 1st one, where the Cape got hit hard and as I recall, Boston only got 4 inches when there may have been expectations of much more. Wasn’t it the EURO that was particularly good with an intense low’s track ?

    1. That storm system some of the models had difficulty with the day of the event. It shifted slightly east where it was modeled
      to go and that made a big difference with the snow totals with The Cape and Islands getting the most being close to the center

  52. It looks somewhat more seasonable after this storm departs but don’t see any wholesale pattern changes yet. In fact, the Euro is locked and loaded with another juicy system over the SE and a cold high to our north on St Patrick’s Day. Not sure where the storm goes from there as it is on the end of the run.

    I think the idea that big storms change patterns is a misnomer. It sometimes happens that conditions are ripe for these types of storms to form when you are heading into or out of a particular pattern, but not the other way around.

    2. Just had a chance to view this. WOW! He’s good. I like how he explained it all.

      Sure looks like we’ll get a storm. Precipitation type may be an issue.

      We’ll see.

  55. Let’s all praise TK for his predictions regarding this weekend. Of course, all mets make mistakes, including TK. But, he’s mostly money as they say. 7 days ago he basically predicted what this weekend would be like, and he remained consistent in his forecasts despite the other mets’ bandying about the 50F number for Saturday. That ain’t going to happen. Many mets had pegged today at 40. That clearly didn’t happen. And, I very much doubt that we’ll hit 48 on Tuesday as several forecasts are predicting (not TK’s). We’re in a very cold pattern for the time of year. In fact, when all is said and done this period that began the last week of February and is now extending with a few interruptions through mid March and perhaps beyond, may be the longest stretch of cold weather I’ve ever experienced this late in the winter season. It’s remarkably cold. Sorry to be redundant. Will it snow? That’s the big question. My guess is yes. And I would not be surprised if we get nailed several more times before we’re through with winter. When we will be able to kiss winter goodbye? Mid April, perhaps …

    1. I was just about to post that Logan is 33F and Marshfield is 34F. These are going to be some cold seabreezes this spring.

      1. Very, very true. I ran the Cohasset road race last year against a stiff seabreeze. It was cold (low 40s). I expect more of the same this year. Perhaps even colder with the water temperature being as low as it is. Expect a lot of fog this spring, and the Cape may not warm up until the end of June. I don’t mean it’ll be this cold until then, but I do think that there will be a significant differential between the inland temps (and Boston) and the Cape. You could see days that it’s 75 at Vicki’s and 55 at Chatham.

        1. For sure ! From my days living in the Lowell area, I can recall a few April sizzlers where it was 90F ish in Lowell and perhaps 48F in Chatham.

          I think your correct, cooler than usual seabreezes.

  56. Random thought … I hope John is alright. Havent seen him post in a while, unless I missed it.

    3. I was hoping when I mentioned he hadn’t made a guess on TK’s contest that he’d chime in.

      And speaking of contest – how is that pile doing, TK, now that all of the guesses are in?

      1. I thought the same thing when I saw you mention his name Vicki. I hope we hear from him soon.

  57. I can only imagine the contrasts and back-door fronts we may see this Spring when we actually get into a warmer pattern (for however long that might happen, if at all).

    On something in the closer future, I have a feeling that the Euro maybe suffering from the same bug it has all winter. How many times has it predicted these region-wide or near region-wide massive snow dumpings only to have it turn out nothing like that? We’ve had snow plenty of times but most of them (save for a few anomalous events) have been happening in ways different from the Euro’s original call.

    I’d have to give more weight to GFS looking at the midweek storm, but it still holds loads of potential this far out.

    1. Very interesting.

      particularly:

      The trend right now is going in the direction of a further south storm track, meaning a more progressive storm that either drops snow or passes far enough offshore to miss Connecticut entirely. This is subject to change, but the seasonal trend over the past few months favors such an end result. There’s a higher probability of this storm not materializing than there is for a major impact, as some have suggested.

  59. TK, I am still looking forward to the National Enquirer version of tornado and hurricane season forecasts. 🙂

  61. From NWS Upton, NY:

    TRACK IS
    ALWAYS CRITICAL HERE. ONCE AGAIN…IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC
    DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS…BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
    SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

  62. Not that it means much at all at this point, but the 18z GFS looks very good for the midweek storm for the entire region, stronger than and well north of the 12z run 🙂

    Obviously there’s way too much inconsistency run-to-run to know much at this point though. The NWS says wait until the potential storm gets inside 96 hours. That’s sound advice. The overall trend still seems south and east, although the Euro has been pretty steady with that big hit.

  63. Made it to killington. Very nice driving day, not to cold, not too warm, just a perfect winter day. I have to say, driving through NH the snow cover was very deep, but into VT, its not impressive at all. Some places around home have more of a snowpack. NWS maps for snowcover in southern and central VT are way off. Snow looks like its the same snow thats been on the ground for months, dirty and icy. We ‘ll see how the slopes are tomorrow! Looks like the euro is continuing to be the spoiled privileged child who wont leave the toy store without a toy.

    1. Have fun! I am heading up there next Saturday. Hope they get a good dumping of snow from whatever materializes this week.

  64. Granted it is 18z, but that run of the GFS is a notable change. Track is very close to the 12z Euro, and though weaker than the Euro, it’s much juicier than past runs. It looks like a partial phase, getting some southern stream interaction involved. This is the scenario I think that gets SNE a significant snow storm, if we are going to get one. A more amped Euro like solution is more likely to hug to the coast and cause mixing issues in many places.

        1. I understand the NAVGEM has a bias for suppressing systems. For several days now, it has been showing a solution that resembles the Euro and has been a big hit for us. Perhaps there is some significance to this?

  67. OK now, are the 0Z runs going to HUG the COAST? OR drift OTS?

    Perhaps the Euro solution is not so far fetched after all?

    I really don’t know what to expect, but it’s looking stormier and stormier.

    Next run please. 😆

  68. Hey TK…If you take the latest CPC verbatim, the Gulf of Mexico is CLOSED FOR BUSINESS, in other words, well below normal in terms of precip for those Gulf Coast states as well as much of the south in general. So, where is the moisture source for next week’s storm going to come from? Off the Mid-Atlantic at the last minute?

    1. It’s actually Pacific moisture combined with a little northern stream limited moisture and a pull from the Atlantic.

  70. DT going with the euro 100% strictly based on its consistency. Really DT?? Its been anywhere between benchmark and hudson valley alternating between every run past few days. Says GFS cant be trusted bc it showed weak and OTS on the 12z but big hit 18z. He says anyone who follows GFS is on crack, LOL. Im so gonna post on his page if the gfs is right 🙂

    1. Do u have a link ? I haven’t checked him based on the insults you all say he lobs at everyone but should probably read at least some of what he says

    2. I can see why he’s going with the euro bc it’s been showing the storm consistently for 4 days. It’s hard to ignore that even though it has had it’s issues this winter.

  71. Shotime. Just had a chance to view Bernie rayno link. Even mac was watching over my shoulder. I like him and how he explains.

    Eric fisher has a good blog and charts also.

    I’m not feeling it but wouldn’t it be a grand way to end the winter ⛄️⛄️

    1. I agree, Eric has a great blog, too! I just feel like this winter needs a grand finale snowstorm! I just hope this isn’t another tease :-L

  73. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

    The top chart is the arctic oscillation index. Last Monday, March 3rd, when the snow storm missed south, the arctic oscillation was negative. A negative NAO tends to mean the cold air has a chance to head southward in latitude. Associated with that can sometimes be a strong northern branch of the jet stream, one that sometimes supresses southern stream moisture……… Look at the difference in the Arctic Oscillation for next Wed, the 12th …. Very different, headed for a positive phase.

    The 2nd chart is the PNA, which kind kf gives an idea of whether there’s a trof or ridge on the west coast of the US. This usually has an implication further east on what the jet stream will be like on the east coast. Again, look at the PNA index for March 3rd, when the snowstorm missed, it was negative. Look at projected PNA around the 12th …. Positive, ridge or ridge building in the west, trof in the east. But the trof on the 12tb may not be surpressed this time because of the positive AO, potentially relaxing the northern branch of the jet stream.

    Assuming these teleconnections come true for mid next week, I feel more confident about an impacting event next week, Wednesday into Thursday.

            1. With the number of people complaining that winter isn’t over when it isn’t over, he might be on to something 😆 Although calling people names? Is he a BZ troll?

        1. There is more to the relationship between those 2 sites, and it is not as it appears. But I am going to keep that off the blog. I will explain what I mean to all 3 of you tomorrow via private messages.

  76. can’t wait for stowe vt :D.. Temps on the mountain suppose to be in the upper 20s to low 30s with a chance of snow showers.

    1. I only got partway through it. It isn’t an analysis. Its an ego trip and he needs an editor. Yep I know…not nice but I have trouble respecting anyone who seems to thrive on insults

  78. Vicki, do you have a link for text = emoticons and symbols. I’ve tried a few, but not all work.

      1. And it doesnt really intensify a storm until its OTS.

        If this could be the 1 time this model is correct …….

  82. Meanwhile in 3 hrs at 2am ……..

    EURO will come in at 974mb over Cape May, NJ eventually tracking btwn Nantucket and the benchmark.

  84. 0z Euro a bit more south and weaker than 12z. Still cold enough for snow across most of SNE. A step towards the GFS solution but still a decent hit with 6-12″ region wide.

  85. 0z GFS ensembles look much amplified than the operational.

    Still a long way to go with this one….

  86. Today’s AccuWeather Quiz.

    Which was the first country to observe daylight savings time?
    A. France
    B. Germany
    C. United States
    D. Canada

    Answer later today.

  88. Good morning.

    Looking at the Euro….typical that it is more off shore.
    Not as typical as previous runs, it is somewhat weaker.
    Delivers about 11 inches of Snow to Boston.

    Notice 500MB chart where it leaves a piece of energy behind in the SW?
    This feature was NOT there with the stronger system depicted yesterday.

    This is what Bernie Rayo was discussing.

    Euro Surface

    http://i.imgur.com/CwyD5XT.jpg?1

    Euro Snow

    http://i.imgur.com/1pTJFK6.jpg?1

    Euro 500 MB

    http://i.imgur.com/miYZ2en.jpg?1

    1. Btw when you open these images and they look small, click on them and they
      will enlarge. 😆

      1. Here’s the 06Z GFS. Never looked at the 0Z run last night. Looks
        like it was a good thing I didn’t, I would have S**T!!!!

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030806&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=123

        Snow

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030806&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=141

        500MB

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030806&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=123

        Nice trough, but what’s with the energy left behind?

  90. From the NWS office at Taunton:

    Here we GO again!!!

    WHY IS IT SHIFTING? THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS
    STORM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. LIMITED
    MEASUREMENTS CAN LEAD TO LARGER RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES IN THE INITIAL DATA FED TO THE COMPUTERS…WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN THE RESULTS THE COMPUTERS OUTPUT. IT WILL NOT REACH THE WEST COAST OF THE USA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING…AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER BALLOON NETWORK.

    1. From Upton NWS:

      UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH THE INTERACTION OF PAC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. SPREAD CONTINUES WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF PHASING AND RESULTANT TROUGHING…WITH SENSITIVITY LYING IN PAC ENERGY ENTERING THE
      WESTERN CANADIAN COAST ON SUNDAY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIGGING AROUND A SE SINKING POLAR VORTEX

  91. I have this feeling this is going to be a light event for SNE. The EURO hopefully with the latest run is back to reality of what is actually going to happen but I don’t have confidence that will happen.

    1. I don’t have confidence in ANYTHING at all. This is INSANE.

      The models have ZERO clue. NADA! ZIPPO!!!!

      Any solution from a Lakes Cutter to a total miss off shore would not surprise me at this point. 2 days ago I was worried about an OTS solution, then yesterday I thought it would end up a Coastal Hugger and rain and now I’m back to worrying about an OTS miss altogether.

      FLIPFLOPALOOZA!!!!

      1. That’s why in times like this O.S., I throw the maps away and resort strictly to pattern and trend to avoid going off the deep end.

        The pattern this winter has been no phasing, flat and generally OTS. That’s my bias until proven wrong by the snowplow.

        1. I Fear you may be 100% correct.

          Bad Winter for the models. Very bad.

          They all need revamping!!

      2. Old Salty that link I posted from WXedge.com yesterday I think might be the eventual outcome with this storm system
        Interesting that NWS out of Taunton yesterday afternoon put up a hazardous weather outlook for some areas of SNE.
        Now today its not there.

  92. Clearly low 50’s as some projected are not going to happen. I have to work today and I bet we don’t get of the low 40’s near south station area.

    2. The long term forecast is pretty crappy if you like a few 60 degree and a sneaky 70f day in March.

      sighhhh.

  93. I was thinking about last years February storm. I will have to go back and read the buildup. I don’t remember when it became certain that it would be a blockbuster. I. Sent imagine the governor having anywhere near the degree of certainty this year that would allow him to ask people to stay off of the roads before the storm even began. And then close them completely before it was in its infancy

    2. If I remember correctly, there was confidence reasonably far in advance.
      None of this total and complete uncertainty of on again off again, I don’t know
      what’s happening Bull crap.

      I’ve NEVER ever seen it this bad before. Really really PUTRID.

      👿 👿 👿

      1. I don’t remember ever seeing it before either but it has seemed to be the case with tropical systems too in many cases. And I thought there was certainty well in advance also. I know some storms are unpredictable but this seems like the vast majority. Is it because the models are messed up and there is too much reliance on them and not on human knowledge. Or is it because the models allow these to be seen so far in advance that we are watching a typical play out earlier than previously. Or is the setup different from what we’ve seen in the past. I’m thinking a combination but only as an observer.

    1. I remember sandy but seem to remember the cone being very wide and the unexpected sharp left turn being a surprise……maybe not to the euro though. IIRC the euro was the only model that consistently predicted sandys path or at least close

      1. The EURO solution always showed the left hand turn with Sandy. It did shift though from near NYC which would have
        been a bad situation for SNE but did lock in for quite a few runs with a southern NJ landfall.

        1. That’s what I thought I remembered. And the euro became a household word and was made king. The one thing that was certain was that sandy was going to be horrific.

  95. I posted the first quiz at 5:53 am.

    Here is today’s second AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What two states do not observe daylight savings time?
    A. Vermont & Kentucky
    B. West Virginia & Georgia
    C. Oregon & Utah
    D. Arizona & Hawaii

    Answer later today.

  97. Feels great outside. Light wind, mostly sunny and some bare patches of ground in the places the sun hits the most. Still a ways to go with the snow melt but finally seeing some hope of spring today. 36 here already.

  98. After the first 7 days of March, Logan is 10.4 degrees below average for the month and almost an inch below normal for liquid precip so far!

    1. Thanks North. How is the current frozen snowpack figured with regard to precip amounts. Was it already part of the yearly/monthly equation (my guess) or is it added in when it melts?

  99. The ECMWF model may have had some notable 8-10 day forecasts, and we remember the big ones – Sandy, 2013 Blizzard. But how many times has it actually done this? Are we keeping track of all the storms? I’m sure there are others along with the Sandys and “Nemo’s” of weather history, but I would be willing to bet it’s less than 50% for nailing down positions 8-10 days out. And since the upgrade? Forget it.

    The truth remains this: As of this morning, the 2 major pieces that need to come together for the formation of the storm that makes up the midweek threat are southwest of the Aleutian Islands and near the Arctic Circle. Miles to go. Miles to go. 😉

  104. Vicki I did watch some of the second round yesterday of the Cadillac Championship. Over 100 balls in the water in the second round. I can’t remember the last time I saw a golf tournament in the U.S. with wind gusts that strong. The winds yesterday is what they sometimes get in Europe when the British Open is happening.

  107. The GFS is a complete 180 opposite of its 00z run.

    It must be a milder version of a storm though, because its snowfall projections dont seem to jive with its storm track or intensity.

    I dunno ? 🙂

  109. The 11AM obs are a great illustration of the snow cover effect.

    Anywhere there are a few inches or more on the ground – 30s to 40.

    Anywhere there are under a few inches or bare ground – middle 40s.

    1. The light winds and unlimited sun in Marshfield, along with how cold it has been are making it feel like its about 60F. Love it !!!

    2. A decent sized storm on the GFS. Really gets cranking as it starts to pass us. Track actually too close now with mixing introduced in much of CT, RI, and SE MA.

  111. Reading the commentary above on the forecasting of the Feb 2013 blizzard and some were questioning when it became set in stone on the models. Interesting to read back through the blog comments from Feb 4/Feb 5, 2013: http://www.woodshill.net/?p=2372

    Storm began on Friday Feb 8 and by Tuesday AM Feb 5, the Euro had already shown a phased mega storm for 6 straight runs but with very little other model support. Many of the local mets, including BB, were discounting the phased solution right up to Tues. AM. Then look at the comments starting around 11AM on tues the 5th. The GFS suddenly went boom and it was game on.

    So point being, there was really no consensus on the blizzard until 3 days before the event and we’re probably not going to have any here either until around that same 3 day mark (i.e. Monday) when the pieces of energy get closer to the west coast.

    That said, the GFS, Euro, and GGEM ensembles are actually in reasonably good agreement for this far out depicting a track south of us and some sort of wintry impact for SNE.

    1. I remember clearly thinking to myself when I wrote this blog “you won’t be thinking this system doesn’t phase tomorrow, so why don’t you go for it today and be one day ahead” … But my typical conservative style prevailed. 😉

      1. Well, you were not alone in those thoughts. Many were skeptical, except DT of course who let everyone know he had nailed it from the start.

  112. The 12z GFS by the way is very cold in the storm’s wake later this week, right into next weekend and is depicting another major east coast snowstorm around St Patrick’s Day. A storm signal in this time frame has been fairly consistent on both the Euro and GFS.

  114. Talk about wide model swings – the 12z Canadian operational just shifted 450 miles north from its 0z run. Going from a weak storm south of us and OTS to a storm with an inland track that causes mixing issues up into NNE.

    If there is anything I take from today’s trends, it is that (1) a storm impact of some sort is likely on Thursday – do not see an OTS solution happening this time around and (2) snow accumulations in SNE are more likely to be impacted by mixing issues rather than a suppressed storm OTS.

    1. Well hello John. U want to make a guess on TKs contest. I don’t think anyone would mind :). See new contest page if u do

  121. Euro is amped up big time again but a coastal hugger with the track right over SNE. That spells big rain storm for us. Big time snows for NNE.

  123. This model has been all over the place. Over NYC to benchmark now over Cape Cod. Got to wait till the energy comes ashore for better sampling. If it goes over Cape Cod a shift a bit to the south and east will make a big difference.
    I think there will be an impact but precipitation type and amounts of snow still with big question marks.

  124. This model flipflopalooza has got to stop.

    I’ll keep looking, but will NOT accept anything until the 12Z runs MONDAY.

    This is INSANE!!!!

    12Z EURO wants to DUMP 42 inches of snow on parts of Maine. Really???

    1. Huge snowstorm on that run for NNE with widespread 2-3 feet across all of VT, NH, ME. Yes, even a pocket of 4 feet in northern ME. I would take this as I am heading up to VT skiing 2 days later!

      On a side note, there is still accumulating snow in SNE on the front and back side of the storm. The one foot snow line makes it as far south as a diagonal line from Springfield to Haverill.

  126. When it comes down to it, the models are just doing what they have all winter.

    I’m not surprised in the least.

    And as is always the case, my call will come when I’m confident enough to make one. In the mean time, the run-to-run comedy show continues. 😀

    BTW I’ll see about getting a picture of my brother’s snow pile posted by tomorrow.

    Let’s open up the guessing for this weekend only, to let anybody in that may have missed out since I did not give a great amount of notice.

    ALSO, to be fair, if anybody wants to change their original guess, you can do it once. Tomorrow night, all guesses will be final and I can compile everything again and re-post a list in the Contest page. I have comments closed on messages greater than 7 days old in the interest of killing the spam problem I had. It’s working. 🙂

    I’ll remind about the contest on my next blog entry which will be by early evening.

    1. Is it not safe to say at this point though that confidence is high of a storm impact on Thursday? Not talking amounts or ptype yet, just in terms of impact.

      1. Couldn’t agree more TK.

        Mark it is not safe to say that we are confident of a significant impact event in SNE. You are welcome to think and / or want that, but it was just todays 00z runs with the exception of the ECMWF that there was a consensus trend to a path on the southern envelope of sensible solutions. The ECMWF has had worse mid-range verification scores in SNE than the GFS since August 1,2013 so it is not the same infallible God that the masses once worshiped at the alter of.

        I still believe the climate set up mid-late week provides us a reasonable chance of a precipitation and more specifically frozen precipitation event, as I still favor colder and further south, but that is just instinct and experience thinking aloud. I don’t have a strong faith in any solution right now and there is no need to have one yet.

      2. I think it’s pretty certain there will be impact, somewhere on the East Coast. The word itself incites concern and panic in a segment of the population. It sounds so threatening. Impact. A glancing blow is an impact. A direct hit from a bomb is impact. It’s how it’s described as it gets closer that should be focused on. But it is early to say certain impact this far out for this particular area and I’d say medium confidence of something this far out, but that’s me. 🙂

  132. Regarding the models, TK posted this:

    In the mean time, the run-to-run comedy show continues. 😀

    Funniest thing TK has ever posted!!!

    Well done TK

    Sums it up pretty darn well! 😆 😆

  133. Certainly UNDER-FORECAST high temps in far southern areas today!!! Is anybody gonna complain about my bad forecast? 😉

    It’s obviously the sun reflecting off our still abundant snowcover up here NW of Boston and focusing the energy on areas to the south and along the coast. 😛

    Boston…55 with a northerly breeze as of 2PM. What do you think it would be if the wind was EAST? 😀 Probably 15 degrees colder.

    1. Thats about what it was at Brant Rock, with a light seabreeze … no more than 40F ………… while just away from the ocean, its 54F.

    1. 58 at Taunton. I think that does it for the day. Large patch of clouds moving in and max heating is done.

      NICE DAY though. A lot milder than I expected. I think it even went above your expectations, Charlie. 🙂

  136. 51.2 out here in Amherst. A general 2″ snow cover remaining on the ground. Still significantly higher, tightly compacted, icy banks, covered in dirt and sand throughout the area.

  138. Thanks TK and JMA for your thoughts above. I purposely did not say “significant” impact, just impact, meaning a good chance of wintry precipitation here in SNE on Thursday. Not saying by any means I buy the Euro’s extreme solution. But I am somewhat intrigued it has been so consistent for 5 days now showing the more amplified system with ensemble support, and it seems to me anyway that the GFS has started to trend a bit in that direction. Appreciate your conservative approach and understand we are not going to have a better handle on this until Monday. But this is just a blog and it’s fun for me anyway to speculate 🙂

  139. 54.6 here. Grandson just headed out the front door in shorts, a tee shirt and flip flops. I guess it is his way of declaring spring has arrived.

  141. I am reading the Euro ensembles continue to support the operational – track is a bit further south, roughly over Nantucket, keeps it mostly snow north of the Pike.

    1. and I should add the QPF numbers are lower but that is usually the case with the ensemble mean.

  142. Some comparison Shopping.

    Here is today’s 12Z euro run. That is 7AM on 3/8

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014030812&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120

    Here is the 0Z run for 3/5 or 7PM 3/4. This is a FULL 3/2 days later.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014030500&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    The similarity is uncanny. The Euro, if nothing else, has been extremely consistent. 😀

      1. Agree with your comment OS. Despite its performance since the upgrade, I would be really hesitant not to give the Euro solution at least some credibility given its consistency and support from the ensembles. Hard to ignore. The GFS and GGEM have been bouncing all over the place – north/south, weak/strong and their ensemble spreads are much greater.

  143. Mark,

    Where have you found access to the Euro ensembles?

    Could you please post a link?

    Many thanks

  145. It’s 55 in Hanover and west bridgewater. The sap is flowing and we just picked up a gallon of syrup.

  146. NWS is now hinting at a rain to snow event Wed-Thurs with colder on Friday then major warmup for next Saturday. It seems the high to our north will not be in the right position to bring all snow for SNE…at least not in the beginning of the event.

    1. I also should mention that Tuesday itself is gong to be fairly mild…50ish so probably it will take awhile for colder air to get regenerated again for Wednesday into Thursday to produce significant snow?

  147. Boston’s temp plummeted from 54-55 to 43 due to SE wind while other locals are still in the low 50s.

    1. Hmm this calls for about 10-12 inches in Boston.

      Looks to be pretty wet stuff at the outset, perhaps even starting as a brief
      period of Rain and/or mix before going over to snow.

      SO even if it’s 10-12 inches, if it’s the wet stuff could be quite significant.

      Time for the 0Z Euro to be a benchmark or there abouts again! 😆

        2. I suppose we shouldn’t get too excited. Just 2 runs
          ago it was a complete MISS.

          Also, this is the 06Z run. 😀

  151. 18Z GFS is a perfect track if you want a snowstorm in SNE. Really bombs out as it passes us. That’s near blizzard conditions for coastal areas if that verified.

  153. For now, Barry has mostly rain for Boston south with just a bit of snow at the tail end and all of the significant snow is destined for NNE. Hopefully things trend southward over time.

    1. It would appear that way. We’ll see what happens when the 0Z Euro is out. 😀

      I’m liking the GFS right about now. Want to see a repeat at 0Z. I suppose
      that’s not likely either.

  155. Most here swear by Barry though. As you know it’s Harvey for me and the last I heard from him this afternoon it could go either way, too early.

    1. Barry and I have the same style and seldom have dissimilar forecasts, overall. But when it comes to detail, he’s far superior to me.

      He and Harvey are tops in Boston and of equal skill.

  156. 84 hrs out on the 00z NAM should be early morning Wednesday ????

    Perhaps that will be interesting to look at soon and see what it has at that point to our southwest.

  158. Answer to today’s 1st AccuWeather Quiz.

    Which was the first country to observe daylight savings time?
    A. France
    B. Germany
    C. United States
    D. Canada

    The answer is B, Germany.

    Answer to today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What two states do not observe daylight savings time?
    A. Vermont & Kentucky
    B. West Virginia & Georgia
    C. Oregon & Utah
    D. Arizona & Hawaii

    The answer is D, Arizona and Hawaii.

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