Time Flies

131 Comments

9:25PM

Weekends always seem to go by so fast, and this one will go by faster than all the others. You know why – it’s clock-changing time. Remember to set clocks (that don’t reset themselves) forward one hour tonight / early Sunday morning – as Daylight Savings Time begins at 2:00AM Sunday.

As for the weather, a very nice treat on Saturday – 40s & 50s with fair weather, will be followed by a return to reality Sunday – 30s, but at least more fair weather. A cold front has passed through southern New England and will temporarily slow down as a weak wave of low pressure moves along it, just south of the region, in the early hours of Sunday. High pressure noses in for Sunday providing the nice but chilly weather, and then another fast-moving low pressure wave will move along the front and pull it back to the north early Monday. This will bring a period of snow to southeastern New England with minor accumulation. A break will come midday and afternoon Monday before another low pressure wave, this one a bit further north, moves eastward and drags the front back through as a warm front Monday night, with yet another period of snow possible. But this will introduce a brief shot of mild air for Tuesday, before the front drops back to the south once again as a cold front, bringing more cold air in from the north. This sets up an interesting potential for the middle of the week as low pressure approaches from the southwest with the threat of a winter storm later Wednesday into Thursday. At this point it remains too early to go into detail on this system. Beyond it, a shot of blustery and cold weather is expected next Friday.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 20. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds linger South Coast early otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 30-38, coldest across hills northwest of Boston and mildest South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. A period of snow after midnight – accumulating a coating to 1 inch. Lows in the 20s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering snow showers ending northwest to southeast early, then partly sunny.  Clouds return at night with a chance of light snow. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 30. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix late. Low 20. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow especially morning. Low 25. High 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 20. High 35.

131 thoughts on “Time Flies”

  2. Today’s weather just felt so good after this winter. We didn’t break any records this winter but it sure was cold and snowy but I believe the cold being the big story.

  4. Thanks TK !

    NAM seems to be having something similar at hr 84 thats being seen on GFS and EURO. Low pressure in mid Ohio valley.

  5. Just an opinion …….

    Spring began today …..

    Why ?

    Well, psychologically 7pm evening brightness is one aspect of it.

    Tuesday’s going to be mild ….. The sun strength tomorrow will help mask the chilly air, BB has it back to 50F next Saturday.

    So … Can winter make a brief return with a big dump of snow …. Sure.

    But, after today, I think its going to be the 1-2 day exception here and there, rather than the rule.

    Alright, may the disagreements with this logic begin. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. 42.9 degree sun angle today

      Next Saturday, 46 degrees and 11 hrs, 57 minutes of sunlight.

      The ridiculous cold the 1st seven days of the month masked how much the sun had climbed in the sky the last few weeks. Once the arctic air retreated and the sun could shine most of the day, look at what the temps did.

    2. Makes sense to me. I’d love more 50 degree days. Of course I’d love more snow too. Hmmm maybe I’m not being helpful here. 🙁

      1. Sure you are. Thats whats great about March. I think your going to get both this week. Maybe (2) 50F days surrounding ….. a lot of new snow midweek.

  6. 00z GFS at 87 hrs, low over West Virginia, pressure down to 996 mb already. I think this run is going to have a similar pressure to the 18z run, which was around 976-980 mb.

  7. 0Z GFS looks Stronger still, but “appears” to be tracking farther North. I could be
    wrong. Watching it.

  8. Rain or snow, that would be quite a 6-8 hr window of heavy precip/wind.

    If thats the track, maybe ski areas up north stay open into April.

    1. Thanks hadi, it seems like we can’t get a perfect storm. Too much south, too much north, or too weak. Etc. I wish we can get hammered . I think this is our last chance (if any) to get double digit snowfall

  11. And how much snow is on the ground in parts of NH and ME right now ……

    Just picturing the Merrimack River in the Lowell area in late March, into early April. Its watershed starts up in Franconia Notch and encompasses all over central and southern NH.

  12. Longshot says:

    March 8, 2014 at 10:33 PM

    Answer to today’s 1st AccuWeather Quiz.

    Which was the first country to observe daylight savings time?
    A. France
    B. Germany
    C. United States
    D. Canada

    The answer is B, Germany.

    Answer to today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What two states do not observe daylight savings time?
    A. Vermont & Kentucky
    B. West Virginia & Georgia
    C. Oregon & Utah
    D. Arizona & Hawaii

    The answer is D, Arizona and Hawaii.

  13. I’ve lived in New England for 40 yrs I’ve never thought of 40’s and 50’s a treat, maybe this winter on an individual level, but Normal winters I’ve always thought as it to be normal or certainly in the ball park for going into mid March

    I also think there will be some snow with the next system, but with lots of rain before the changeover, goodnight 🙂

      1. Euro actually has a little bullseye of 55-60 over your area for Tuesday with 50-55 across the rest of eastern MA.

          1. why do you say that? It looks as warm Tuesday as it was yesterday and many towns in SE MA and RI made it to that range.

    1. Those look fine. Milder in Providence than Boston. Boston’s climate is already skewed by an east wind this time of year. 🙂

  15. Oz Euro = rainorama with track over NYC. Brief change to heavy snow at the end. for SNE. NNE does well again with 1-2 feet, up to 3 feet in northern ME.

    There seems to be a continued trend in the models of flattening the ridge out west which is bringing the storm further north. Still time for this to change but not liking the trend.

  17. GFS looking a little more “benchmarky” vs. Euro for Thurs, but I just see more likelihood of all rain in the picture.

  18. BZ put a “snow map” for Thurs BUT it did not have actual accumulations. It showed the Cape with rain and then south of the Pike and Boston with a “coating.” North of the Pike and somewhat west of Boston with “several inches,” and NH and Vermont with “significant snowfall.”

    The storm itself seems to be more certain, but as for snowfall, it’s all in the track.

  19. I hate losing an hour sleep. On the positive side sun is out longer.
    On to the storm still got to wait for the energy from the Pacific to come ashore. There will be a storm as it looks right now but precipitation type and amount of accumulating snow remain in question.

  21. I posted the answers to yesterday’s trivia quizzes at 11:24 PM last night. Most people got the first one wrong and the second one right.

    1. I was surprised by Germany but when I read the reason re conserving energy during the war it made sense. Also the Native American reservation in Arizona to my knowledge does go by DST

  22. I continue to keep my mind open to all solutions as the placement of the high to our north at 84-96 hours does not support the path depicted on the 00z ECMWF OP / ENS. Also the ECMWF seems fast, and as it is the new NAM, wants to make this a 30 hour storm, but with all that said, I can’t ignore a warmer solution, as Tuesday seems to want to be 15 degrees warmer than I thought it would be 30 hours ago, so in the end mother nature is going to do what it wants to do, even if the overall set up seems contrary.

    The ECMWF still has critical thickness levels and 2m temps above freezing as far west as the Berkshire County line at 2am on Thursday and banks on most of the snow accumulating on the backside of the storm as the low enters the Gulf of Maine. That is always a tough sell to me, even more so in March. So I still lean to a a faster, colder, less QPF, but not necessarily less snow event, centered on Late Wednesday / Early Thursday, but all options remain on the table for consumption.

  24. A couple of points of clarification, the ECMWF seems fast with onset of precip, not the duration of the storm, and the 2nd paragraph is based on the ECMWF ENS Mean, which also holds 850 temps above freezing past 2am Thursday, in addition to critical thickness levels and 2m temps out through Berkshire County.

  25. According to NWS, all models have the low passing just south of SNE. Hopefully that trend continues. We still have a ways to go since the storm itself is still in the North Pacific.

    I am now getting the feeling that Pacific originated systems are much more difficult to track long term than GOM ones due to lack of early data. Am I correct on that?

    1. Definitely think that is an accurate statement. The other issue with this progressive pattern is that the pieces of energy are moving so quickly that by the time they come over land on the west coast, they are already within 3 days or less of getting here, so we don’t get more clarity on what is going to happen until late in the game.

  26. Ch7 Chris lambert saying its still early on exact track he is leaning towards the mild solution meaning rain for most including boston, ch5 using caution as well seems to be leaning in the same direction.

    1. Good morning. Had a late night. Saw Euro before bed, Made me SICK!

      As Mark indicated, 06Z GFS a bit farther South as was 06Z NAM.
      Waiting on the 12Z runs, now won’t see Euro till about 2:30!

      Going to look at some other models.

      Be back soon.

  30. Awesome!! A lot of weather sites have changed there sites to a spring pictures or background logos, another sign, happy spring everyone, not bad outside, 36 right now 🙂

      1. I kind of stair-step it. I change some things on March 1, a few things today, and the rest about March 20. 🙂

        2. I think your way is probably more the right way, but I can’t complain if they changed though 🙂

  31. 06Z DGEX is just fine:

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f090.gif

    Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 236 Date: 09 Mar 2014 – 00Z

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014030900/236/3hap_sfc_f102.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014030900/236/totp_sfc_f120.png

    0Z CMC is too warm

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=090

  32. I think mid 50s are a treat after the low AND high sides of average. In the winter when temps have been in the 20s or lower for an extended period or in the summer when temps have been 90s and HHH for an extended period. Its just fun to have a change. And average is just that. It means that lower or higher temps are not an exception and the average number is not the rule.

  33. 12Z NAM is in. It looks like it slowed down and delayed precipitation onset.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014030912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    Snow so far:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    This run will be extremely close for Boston.

    It “looks” like R/S line runs wsw to ENE “just” barely South of Boston.

    Looks dangerously close to moving North of Boston.

    Want to see the 12Z GFS.

    Watched Barry Last night.

    He certainly was leaning towards the warmer solution with more of a COASTAL HUGGER giving a nice dump to NNE but mostly Rain in SNE with a changeover
    to “some” snow on the back end.

    And while we are at it….Where is the PAC energy for this event?
    In the past I could clearly see it.

    All I see is a little dip in the flow.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=000&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_npac_000_500_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=npac&param=500_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140309+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    1. That run is going to come in too warm for everyone south of the Pike. But it’s the NAM at 84 hrs so take it FWIW.

  35. If this storm doesn’t get us, here’s the Euro fantasy map for the storm threat early next week:

    http://i.imgur.com/2kQjFz5.png

    One thing that intrigues me about the setup for 3/17-3/19 is that there actually appears to be some blocking setting up, with the GFS showing a strong double barreled high pressure to the north (the runs yesterday actually showed a slow moving 3-day storm). That of course could change or it could just result in the system getting shunted OTS instead. But nonetheless, it will be another watcher.

    I know, I know. One storm at a time…

    1. I growing tired of Euro fantasy storm that NEVER EVER materialize. 👿

      I’ll believe that one when I see it.

      1. The snow map is pure fantasy but in general there’s a pretty good storm signal for something on the east coast during that time period. Threat has consistently been showing up on the models in one form or another. It’s possible we may have a better shot at a colder scenario with that one than we do with the Thursday system.

        1. I heard that before about this one as well.

          Believe me something will happen to F that one up as well.
          NO doubt about it. 😆

        2. The Euro does OK with getting storm signals right.

          It just struggles with:

          -low placement
          -low strength
          -low track
          -precipitation timing
          -precipitation amount / snow amount

          Ok so I should have said it struggles with basically EVERYTHING.

          In short, since the upgrade, very disappointing.

          I’m estranged from the ECMWF, but not engaged to the GFS. In fact I prefer to remain a meteorological bachelor. I’m not marrying ANY of these computer pieces of crap for the last days of this winter or any time soon! 😛

  36. From Taunton NWS office:

    TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT INITIAL RAIN SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND
    SNOW TO THE NORTH. EVENTUALLY TEMPS COOL DOWN AND ALLOW SNOW ALL AREAS…WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION.

    1. And from the Upton, NY office:

      THE HOPE IS FOR INCREASINGLY BETTER MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THE SECOND PIECE OF THE PUZZLE…THE PAC ENERGY INTERACTION…FROM MONDAY ON AS IT ENTERS
      THE WESTERN US COAST. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY…AND DEGREES OF
      PHASING…WILL PLAY A STRONG ROLE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW.

    1. Wow ! In the shady spots, our backyard has about 3 crusty inches, but perhaps 60-70 % of the ground is bare.

  38. I think its safe to say there will be an impact of some sort but precipiaton type and snowfall amounts remain big questions marks.

  39. Not as prolific as yesterday, but high temp bust again today due to the unlimited sun.

    Ch 7 has 37F, ch 4 has 35F. Ch 5 takes too much work to get to their 7 day.

    Its already 36F, solar noon is still 1 hr away and max heating now ends probably 3:30 – 4pm.

    Perhaps 40F – 41F at Logan ???

      1. Wow, up to 18″ in the mtns of VT and NH. Guess I can’t complain there as I am heading up to killington two days later.

  42. Just saw that UGH!!!
    Not liking the trend here. I am hoping this changes when the Pacific energy gets better sampled.

  43. Sorry guys, but I think that outcome would be perfect !!

    Rain means bare ground down here and it lets the strengthening sun continue to edge us further towards spring.

    It puts a ton of snow into ski country.

    I am not a skier, but I’ll bet most skiers would say spring skiing is the best.

    1. Remember, If these images are small, click on them to enlarge.

      NOTICE the nice NEGATIVE TILT to this 500MB configuration?

      Something that has been missing ALL WINTER. 😆

      1. Yeah, that was what I was alluding to above, there could actually be some blocking in place allowing for a slow moving system. But as you said, something will probably F it up!!

  45. Nothing is locked in yet. It wouldn’t take much of a shift back the other way to put us in the mostly snow area. Lots of time and model runs to go. I don’t really mind rainstorms this time of year, especially big ones like on that GFS run. We need the rain too. We’re quietly working our way back towards a drought, which could get worse as we head later into spring and summer. TK has alluded to this.

    1. Correct.

      The thing that will help hold off drought returning at least initially is the heavier snowpack from northern MA into NH still having 2+ inches of water in it, releasing slowly.

    2. I agree that even rain would be welcome. We are working out way back towards drought. Its nice to see the rivers around here look like rivers for the forst time in over a year. I was surprised to see people walking in the middle of the the Sudbury. But I’m a worrier so figure they know what they are doing.

  46. I agree nothing is locked. Your right any slight shift than currently modeled bring the snow area down further south and east.

          1. And just HOW did you know I was wearing a Bruins hat today?

            You got spies hiding out around Woods Hill don’t ya!

  47. a longer duration event from sometime wednesday morning through thursday morning/early afternoon
    Most areas start out as rain wednesday afternoon changing over to a mix of rain and snow wednesday evening then to snow after midnight through thursday morning.
    The Berks and north central mass into southeast NH /southern new hampshire starts out as a mix then to snow .southern vt, southwest NH up into down east maine north will see mainly snow. Ski country they will have a good amount of snow

  49. Don’t forget that this storm won’t be better sampled for data until tomorrow and that could make all the difference

  50. 24–36 hrs ago, there seemed to be very little model consistency.

    Now, with the 12z EURO, there seems to be a lot more consistency.

  51. It’s not locked at all. I’m guessing if we get the snow it may come on the back end as it will be colder. Wednesday still looking warm low 40s but dropping Wednesday night and colder Thursday.

  52. 12z euro maintains pretty much the status quo with a track over cape cod. Very little model spread at this point in the game. Not locked in yet but getting closer.

  53. Since it appears fairly certain that Wednesday will start as rain, we can still get a decent dumping of snow since the storm itself is expected to get colder with time. The March 11-14, 1888 storm had a good slug of rain here in Boston in the beginning and even in the middle at times but when all was said and done a whopping 12″ was the final total. Not to mention that the ocean temps are quite cold now (36-37F) so a direct N wind won’t be as necessary to produce a good snow like in November or December. While I am not comparing this storm with 1888 in terms of amounts and duration by any means, I do wonder if there will be a few subtle similarities?

    I also now wonder if that 1888 storm had any Pacific origin?

  54. Ok, I stand alone in terms of the Wednesday system being <b<locked in.
    I still think it is locked. It’s just a question of HOW far inland and/or North it tracks, not whether it does or not. It AIN’T GONNA be a benchmark event that’s for sure.

    On another subject, the EURO still has a pretty decent Snow event for 3 /18,3/19.

    12Z run a bit more off shore than 0z run, but it’s there. I’ll keep count.
    That’s 2 successive runs. 😆

    2. It is not like you to give up so easily OS. The storm is still 3 days out. You know better too much can happen before then. 😉

  55. I think more rain will fall than snow with this next mix snow/rain storm wed, we certainly are not looking at a big snow event around here IMO, but we shall see 🙂

  56. OS, even with the track, I wouldnt be surprised by decent snow on the Mass Pike, right into Boston.

    Examining the column, the boundary layer wont warm too much, due to the cold ocean. So then, aloft ……. Well, intensifying low with heavy precip …. As long as its not too warm aloft, I could see dynamics and precip intensity keeping the column just cool enough. Final piece is the big thump of the precip occurs overnight.

    Boston to Worcester and northern Mass may do well yet.

  59. 18Z look a tiny bit better. NAM looks better still.

    Still not buying it.

    Let’s see if there is one last flip from the Euro tonight,.

  60. I just got called in for early start tomorrow as a dusting to an inch is expected first thing.

  61. Both NWS out of Upton, NY and Taunton, MA waiting for the pacific energy to come ashore to get better sampled.
    IF this could track a little further south and east bring down the accumulating snow further south and east. Tomorrow hopefully will start to get a better idea.

    1. There could be scattered snow any time after 1AM but it looks like if there is going to be any coatings to local 1 inch amounts it will occur between 4AM and 10AM, based on current trends. I’d lean more toward coatings that won’t do a whole lot of sticking to the roads, at least not for very long.

  63. Barry already has a snow map with these amounts:

    NNE 8-14″
    128/495 N&W 2-8″
    Boston to Cape C-2″

    What do you think about these amounts TK? It seems a bit early IMO but Barry seems quite confident. I am somewhat surprised he would put numbers out 2+ days out and the fact that the Pacific data still isn’t totally available yet.

      1. He never proclaimed confidence in any one outcome. Even at 6:30 he indicated there’s still plenty of uncertainty. His first call (answering Philip’s question) is not really too early (though I would go with more general descriptions versus numbers), as long as people understand it’s a first call and there is wiggle room.

        Note that even 25 miles in storm track makes a big difference. And you’re trying to predict the placement of the center/track of a very broad cyclone 3 to 4 days in advance. No easy task, no matter how much technology we have.

        1. I just saw on line but I thought wankum explained it very well saying looking like rain with back end snow possible and also saying track is still not etched in stone, no numbers. Now that’s a decent and honest way to go about it.

          1. Last night he was showing snow #’s from both the Euro and GFS for the midweek system.

            I’m not in favor of that.

            All it does is confuse people.

            Barry is showing one map and explaining what he means by it, and his map also showed “back end” snow in a region very similar to what M.W. had. How is that any less honest?

            1. I think your misunderstanding. I’m not saying Barry wasn’t honest not at all. Last night I believe wankum was showing what the different models were showing. I think the way he has gone about it has been good.

              1. Fair enough.

                Yes, last night, Mike Wankum showed the snow maps for both the GFS and Euro for a storm 4 to 5 days away. I understand the concept of doing it, but from talking to many people, the #’s on those maps just confuse people, or they come away thinking that, for example, Boston is going to get 4.2 inches of snow on Wednesday/Thursday. That, IMO, is not the right way to go about it. The model output should be left to the meteorologists to look through and use (or not use) as a factor in their forecasts. The enthusiasts (the Old Salty’s of the world) can access the numbers if they want, because they are available on the net. I just don’t think it’s a good idea for the TV guys to throw those #’s out there that far in advance for models that have dozens of runs to go and will change over and over before a storm. By the time the storm arrives, you’ve seen about 25 different forecast snow amounts for a few dozen locations. 🙂

    2. I would wait on making a call until that pacific energy gets better sampled. I don’t think this track is set in stone and it won’t
      take much of a shift south to make a difference in snowfall amounts.

  66. Well, with this lost hour, I wont even make it to crunch time on this 00z NAM run.

    Interesting about this event …..

    It doesnt seem like a storm that approaches from the Ohio Valley, to redevelop at the east coast. It doesnt seem like a Gulf of Mexico storm.

    From the models, it seems like a storm that approaches from the SW and just gets stronger as it passes by.

    And its track, seems WSW to ENE …. Not one of those coming from Cape Hatteras, with a NE track.

    I wonder if this is another aspect, that almost parallel track along the south coast that might not allow a great northward push of milder air aloft too far north ??

  67. For mid-week, I think too many people are giving to much credit to the models regardless if they say or said 2″ of rain or 2′ of snow. From what we have all seen this winter, the models are hardly reliable 72 hours in advance. Even if they are in agreement, I do not give much credence this far out. If all the models hypothetically showed an OTS solution or a lakes cutter tomorrow am…I would not be surprised nor would I call it reliable. I actually still expect track, speed, QPF, etc. changes. how could they not change?

Comments are closed.