The Week Ahead

231 Comments

10:40PM

After averaging nearly 10 degrees colder than normal through the first week of the month, the second weekend of March featured a reprieve with high temperatures over 50 in most locations in southeastern New England Saturday. And though Sunday will quite a bit cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s) it was still quite tolerable.

Now, it’s onto the coming week, which will feature a variety of weather – something March is quite known for. It starts out with some snow showers and lots of clouds Monday as a disturbance passes through the region along a frontal boundary. A low pressure area approaching the region from the northwest Tuesday will drag this front northward and allow some mild air to flow into southeastern New England, before the low’s trailing cold front slides through the region Tuesday night as low pressure moves off the New England Coast. This battle zone between much colder air to the north across eastern Canada and northern New England and mild air just to the south will provide an avenue for a more important storm to travel, impacting southeastern New England Wednesday into Thursday. The exact track of the low pressure area which will be coming across the Midwest and into the Northeast will be crucial in determining precipitation type. At a few days away, I am not confident just how it is going to work out yet, but my leaning is toward a track a little further south than most computer guidance suggests, and a colder scenario, but a close enough track for some rain over at least southeastern MA and RI and up to around Boston, with mostly snow to the northwest. This will be tweaked and fine tuned, of course, as the event draws closer.

Once the storm moves away, a chunk of Arctic air will be pulled southward out of eastern Canada and make it feel like mid winter on Thursday, along with some very strong wind as the low intensifies rapidly as it heads for the Canadian Maritimes. By Friday, high pressure will move in, eliminating the wind, increasing the sun, and moderating the temperature.

By the time we get to next weekend, another disturbance will approach and cross the region, but best info this far out suggest it will not be a major system.

Forecast for the coming week for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light snow developing – local coatings by dawn. Lows in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow early. Highs around 40. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow – no accumulation. Lows around 30. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Developing mix to snow northwest, rain to mix to the southeast, probably snow all areas by evening. Temperatures in the 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast, falling to the 20s north to south at night.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Windy. Temperatures in the 20s.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

231 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Well, lo and behold, the 0z NAM is south with a benchmark storm and a colder scenario for most of SNE.

  4. It is and I’m not surprised. That is the way I feel this thing may end up. That said, still no lock. A couple more days to go.

    1. Realistically, it’s too early for solid numbers. Obviously the model run is going to provide them, because that’s what it does.

      My feeling is that when all is said and done this map may be close to what takes place.

  7. Regardless of how much snow any one location gets, I have a feeling many roads are going to be treacherous Thursday morning. The storm starts out wet and sloppy and then heights crash and collapse to the coast overnight. We are looking at wet and/or slushy surfaces essentially flash freezing and then getting covered with a layer of snow. Not going to be a good situation.

  8. There has been a pretty strong and consistent signal in the models of a deep trough forming in the east again early next week with a storm developing over the SE and tracking up the coast. TK, interested to hear your thoughts on this potential.

    1. Well not too much I can say about it right now other than it has been showing up on runs many days in a row, as has the threat for this week upcoming. It tells you that the medium range models are doing OK with the overall pattern, but we know they have struggled with the details.

    1. GFS track is not quite as far south as the NAM, but looks to go near ACK or just south of there, but inside the benchmark.

  11. Thanks TK 😀 I can’t believe Spring is coming soon! Even though there is this impending storm 😉 I am excited to see my cherry blossoms!!

  12. GFS looks a little south of previous run. Hmmm….

    The NAM at 72 and 78 hours.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=nam&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=nam&stn2=PNM&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=072

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=nam&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=nam&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=078

    Not sure I would call this reliable yet. Further track changes expected, and I do expect the pendulum of the track to keep swinging.

  14. I need some of OS’ icon anger !!

    Its dark ……… it feels like its an hour earlier ……….. and judging by the radar and the obs, its probably snowing. Oh Monday.

  15. Pouring snow in Woburn…depressing…and feels like 5:30am…hate the time change and especially those people that actually trhink we gain an hour. There are not 25 hours in a day now. 🙂

  16. Don’t feel like the Euro made the southerly shift the GFS & NAM have. As expected model disparity.

  17. Morning. Blah blah blah

    I KNEW the NAM was Teasing us!!! 👿 👿 👿

    Latest runs for ALL are NORTH!()@)#()(!@&#!@#*!@*(#&*(!@&#&

    Not even going to post any maps I’m So pissed off.

    And to add insult to injury, the EURO has blown off the next one and moves it
    WAY OTS Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay South and East.
    Not even close.

    Get ready for the RAINORAMA!!!!

    1. Here’s the real pisser if it goes this way…

      But for this weekend, we’ve been freezing our asses off since November with below normal cold seemingly day after day after day. Finally get a storm with a decent amount of QPF and too warm.

      I thought we’d get one more good one. Maybe not.

      1. Mother Nature can be cruel, that’s for sure.

        I KNEW that would happen.

        You couldn’t have said it better. You are oh so right.

        Brutally cold, get a big storm => RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

        ALWAYS, always the way it goes.

        BRING ON SPRING. LET THE WARMTH COMETH!!!

      1. You’re dreaming.

        I don’t see very much back end snow, if at all.

        Just my humble opinion.

  18. On Another note….

    It looks like the North Shore are getting pounded with SNOW, even IF it won’t
    last too much longer.

    Snowing decently here. About 1/4 inch coating so far. 😆

  22. Thank you, TK. Dusting…barely here. Looks very pretty

    I’m campaigning for DST to move from a weekend early morning to a weekday early afternoon. If we have to lose an hour I vote for a paid loss 🙂

  23. My initial guess for midweek (I love that I have no weather reputation to care about)

    Logan : 4-5 inches after 1st half rain (they do well over a couple hrs, once the low gets over and east of Martha’s Vineyard)

    Marshfield : 2-3 inches (same idea, rain holds on a bit longer)

    Lowell : 6-8 inches

    Manchester/Nashua NH : 10-12 inches

    1. I agree — mostly about me have absolutely no weather reputation (your comment made me laugh) — but also about amounts. I’m thinking 6 average out this way.

    2. A bit optimistic there Tom.

      We shall see, but my gut says little or NO snow Boston, South. 👿

      Of course, I want to view the 12Z runs to see “if” there is a change, but If any change comes, it will likely be MORE NORTH, imho.

    1. If we do, I sure think it will be late. We are gone the month of April and I had figured we’d get some basic yard cleanup done before leaving. I’m looking at a very solid blanket of snow out there and think it may be May before we get to anything.

        1. 🙂 It sure can – a little snow eating fog can make all of the difference along with warmer temps !!

          The difference from last year for bloom season alone, if my daffodils are any indication, will be several weeks. And it isn’t as if we didn’t have snow last year.

  25. Danielle’s (Ch. 4) map is the most agressive with snow showing several inches for Boston and southward. What model currently shows this?

  26. TK – if you have a second (doesn’t matter when) and want to open a new comment on the contest page, I have the totals I can post. Thanks 🙂

  27. Since the energy has now hit the mainland, I expect track changes. It seems almost impossible for no further track changes to occur, be it further north or south. I’ll take the rain … personally I am tired of winter, so it’ll probably track further south. LOL. 🙂

    1. I hate time changes. My wife ended up going to work in the dark in the thick of the snow. An hour later – when she usually leaves – it was light out and no snow.

      1. It sucks to do it this time of year.

        It was better when it was done the 3rd week of April.
        At least at 7AM it was LIGHT OUT!!

        Some folks just make STUPID decisions!!

          1. Ed Markey backed this when they passed it. I remember him on the news and they asked him why change the time this early. His answer was “Its makes people happy…and isn’t that the governments job…to make people happy?” Ummm…no.

  30. Knowing our luck, I have a feeling boston won’t even see 2 inches out of this storm, this storm goes further North and the storm on the 17-19 time frame as we know by now will go OTS. This is like the worst scenario and I believe that’s what’s going to happen. After that I highly doubt boston will see a storm of 6 inches or more. Best case scenario will be this storm tracker south on the 12z models and the other storm will track closer to the coast!, hah even give me one storm and ill be happy.

    1. I have a pretty strong feeling that we WON’T see it.
      Looks like we are DONE!

      BRING ON SPRING!!!!

      Now that I said that, we’ll get clobbered.

      Either way, we WIN! 😀

  31. I can’t understand we people would prefer to have daylight going to work over daylight after work. The change in times is a sign of the spring right around the corner, I look forward to the change, life can be monotonous at times and change is good for all. Though most do not like change.

    I hope this next storm is all rain. It’s mid March and we should be tracking the first time temperatures hit 60 rather than a snow storm. I am aware it can snow till May.

    2. I don’t MIND DST. It makes sense, JUST NOT on MARCH 9!!! TOO early
      in the season. Put it back to the 3rd week in April.

      1. I think it works great for people who suffer from seasonal depression. It also allows people to actually get things done around the yard after work and for the kids to play outdoors longer after school. The timing is perfect in my opinion.

    3. I think, for me anyways, its too early to change. I like the change, but later when the weather is nicer and we can actually take advantage of the extra daylight after work. Right now, there’s nothing to do. Its still winter, still cold, still miserable (without snow). The extra daylight doesn’t do much for me until I can actually get out and enjoy it with nicer weather to accompany. That won’t happen in early March.

      1. The weather in early March has been warm some years. I believe in the 70’s and 80’s not many years ago.

            1. I wonder if anyone has kept track of March temps. I seem to remember several springs this century when we have completed spring cleanup in March.

        2. March 18ish 2012 – my grands were playing outside in water tables. We have a lot of warm early March weather. I’m with coastal – I don’t mind the change now. I actually could care less when they make the change. People will be unhappy no matter what and Coastal’s reasons seem to be well founded. I still think we should change the time to during the work day 🙂

  32. I understand where you’re coming from, OS. I’d like to see spring rather than the `stuck in-between stuff’ we tend to get in March and April. Alas, spring’s Boston’s achilles heel, and fall is Boston’s blessing.

    Next week will likely be colder than this week, so anybody who thinks spring’s lurking around the corner …

  33. Vicki… I will fix the contest page from my computer this afternoon. Phone is not letting me change anything.

    1. No hurry at all TK – the list isn’t going anywhere and I sure don’t think that snow pile is either 😉

  34. FWIW,

    12Z NAM is coming in WAY to the North so far.
    Not looking good at all. For all of those wishing for better sampling…
    Well it didn’t help. IF anything, it provided info to track it Farther North still.

        1. OK, it’s going a bit South of Albany, but NFG for us or ANY of SNE. Strictly a way up North event.

        2. Good call on that. When I first read the beginning of the sentence ” coming in hot” I got excited for just half a second to just getting depressed in the end lol. What a bummer

          1. Adirondacks In upstate NY get clobbered and
            the mountains of VT don’t do too badly either.

            Really juicy system, the wettest of the season and it has to RAIN! Go figure.

  35. A northern New England storm. Not at all uncommon for this time of year. Silver lining for me is that the skiing at Killington Saturday should be great with up to 18″ of new snow! Ace, how was your trip?

    Throwing the white flag on this storm but still think all locations regardless are going to need to watch out for a flash freeze as temps crash Thursday morning.

    Storm threats continue next week. I am not concerned a week plus out that one run of the models is now showing the storm (actually 2 storms now) OTS. The models are going to continue to do their thing as they figure out the upper air patterns and timing of the pieces of energy but there are a couple more watchers coming up after this and we’ll leave it at that for now!

    1. Trip was awesome Mark! Despite the thin snow cover the conditions were pretty good. Some icy spots toward the end of the day, especially in the usual Skye Peak/Bear Mountain areas, but all in all it was a good trip. So jealous ur gonna have fresh snow to ski on! Makes me want to skip work friday… 💡

      1. That’s good, still beats being here even if conditions weren’t perfect! Too bad your timing on the trip was just a few days early.

    2. I think you know my thoughts on that.
      It AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN.

      Bad English totally on purpose. 😆

    3. If this thing keeps trending north, Killington might be on the edge of some wetter snow/mixing, lol

  36. Honestly, I’m not all that upset about this one looking like little to no snow here. The mountains of NY and especially VT have had meager snows so far this year in comparison to the norm. Killington had no more snow on the ground than we had here and many patches of grass around the lodge. This will really extend the ski seasons for many and thats good news. I’m ready for spring.

      1. Oh, And you expect the GFS to be better?????
        Have you been smoking something this morning?

        Tie down your UGH meter, because it’s going to POP!!

  39. I think that would be a miracle if that track from the FIM from last night happens.
    On to the 12z GFS and EURO runs. I hope there is a good surprise and a shift in track from what the NAM is showing but I am not betting the house on it.

  40. NAM is by no means a lock at this range….OS, I hope the models gain some consistency for you before you have a stroke :)…..I have a hard time believing this storm becomes an inside runner based on the the southward trend we’ve had all winter…just a few days ago we were talking about this thing going out to sea, because of the PV and cold….the 12Z runs of the GFS and Euro will be important, but not the end all be all

    1. A Stroke? I rant and rave, but Stroke? NOPE!

      There will be weather on Wednesday Whether we like it or not! 😆

  41. You know you are grasping at straws when we are down to hoping the JMA and FIM verify.

    That said, I do think the NAM is WAY too far north. Model has been a piece of garbage this year. Just last night, it was the farthest south! I think track will end up over LI and Cape Cod. North/central and western MA still in the game for several inches of snow. I would not hold out much hope for back end accumulating snows in CT, RI, and SE MA.

    1. I agree the NAM has been very inconsistent.

      However, it would NOT surprise me if the track ends up pretty far North
      as to be a NNE event only.

      And I also agree with your assessment that there will be NO snow to speak
      of in SNE.

      Waiting on Euro and GFS.

      OH, btw, although the JMA may be a piece of CRAP, the FIM is NOT.

      The FIM happens to be a very good an reliable model.

      TK ranked it #2 behind the Euro (well at least before the update to the Euro).

      Even JMA said the FIM was OK, although that is not a raving endorsement,
      it was not a condemnation either.

  42. I’m really shocked oldsalty that you’re just shutting this thing down so fast it’s just not your style.

    1. JJ, just simple REALITY, that is all. I have to ACCEPT it.
      That’s life, that’s weather in New England. Sometimes it just doesn’t
      go the way we want it. Have to live with it. The weather does what it wants,
      not necessarily what we want.

      On the plus side, it should do a number on the remaining snow in SNE.

      BRING ON SPRING (unless of course there is a BIG snow storm on the horizon)

  45. It looks to me as if that under sampled Pacific Energy Came ashore TOO FAR NORTH
    and thus everything in this system comes together too far North as well. So we get
    what we get and there is nothing we can do about it.

    Onto the next one. 😆

  46. Problem is that ridge in the Pacific was not as amplified as we needed it to be, or as was previously modeled. Thus, the low coming out of the Rockies does not dig more to the south. Coupled with that, the PV to the north does not push as far south as it looked like initially. And the fact that this storm seems to be trending more and more amplified favors the coastal hugger/inland track.

    I will give the Euro credit on this one. It pretty much had this storm for 10 straight days/20 consecutive runs and within a track envelope of about 300 miles. It had favored a more amplified solution from the start, and that appears to be what is verifying.

    Up to 2 feet of snow in NNE will be epic for spring skiing conditions.

  47. Interesting how the storm gains strength as it approaches us and then starts to weaken right after it passes Boston and heads up towards the Maritimes.

  48. Now that we have stuck a fork in this one…….

    Regarding the storm next week, Euro and GFS ensembles still have it. And at this time frame, ensembles are of more interest than the operational runs.

    Storm is on the table per the NWS Extended Forecast Discussion:
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

    A couple highlights from the discussion:

    EVEN IF THERE ARE QUESTION MARKS OVER ENSEMBLE MEAN
    DETAILS NEAR THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD… AT LEAST THE
    ECMWF MEANS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STABLE IN SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE
    NEAR THE SERN COAST BY NEXT MON. GEFS MEANS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING
    BETWEEN THE WRN ATLC AND CLOSER TO THE SERN COAST. THE 06Z GEFS
    MEAN IS ONE OF THE RUNS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MEAN AND THUS PREFERRED MORE THAN THE 00Z VERSION.

    EXPECT THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER CNTRL-ERN AREAS BY SUN-MON BUT WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN TYPE/COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PCPN AT ANY SPECIFIC LOCATION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL PCPN AT THAT TIME EXTENDS FROM THE SRN TIER INTO THE NORTHEAST.

  49. 0z GFS operational has the Monday storm developing way offshore but gets us with a clipper redevelopment on Wed 3/19. Very cold run from this Wednesday 3/12 right thru next Thursday 3/20, short of a slight reprieve this Saturday.

  50. I’m glad that we dodged another bullet, This is weather blog, and i love following the weather. Realistically snow chances are dwindling fast and i am happy about it, bring on the “spring” (no such thing in New England) slightly warmer and Red Sox games. I have as much fun following storms with a ton of snow as the ones that miss us, … and no Shoveling 🙂

  52. Oh well. So no 4-5 for Boston and 2-3 for Marshfield. ……… 🙂 on rain, 🙁 on morning guess.

    Do I have a shot at the warm sector and a squall line of thundershowers ?? 🙂

    1. My how things have changed. We went from talking about losing this thing OTS a few days ago to being in the warm sector for some t-storms. Gotta love it!

  53. Re: Euro for Wednesday

    So far it looks WARMER still. 540 line about 50 miles Farther North. Not looking good, even for parts of NNE.

      1. Euro still wants to throw back “some” back end snows
        even in Boston. Will post final snow map shortly.

  54. 3 inches for my area. I think its going to be less than that. I think the bigger issue is icy spots on the roads in parts of SNE for the Thursday morning commute.

  55. Enjoying the sounds of bird singing. Makes you think they know the clocks changed or something…

  56. LOL! The Euro is back to its tricks and brewing up a St Patrick’s Day MONSTER one week from today!!

    1. It’s got a loaded system over the SE that tries to move up the coast but then kind of sideswipes us and gets shunted east by the strong high pressure to the north. Still good enough though for 12-18″ on that run for eastern MA.

      Good storm signal on the 12z GFS ensembles as well.

      The question is – does it get up here or get shunted east OTS? Just too early to say.

      2. If none of the ridiculous snow numbers the euro is spitting out for the midweek system come to fruition in northern NE (my bet is they dont), i have to be cautious with the euro going forward. Not so much with track and intensity, but with qp. Yes it had this storm pegged for a while now, but lets see if it verifies first.

      3. Correction on my snow totals above, the Euro wasn’t done yet. It has another batch of heavy precip come through after the main storm dropping another 6-10″ for a total of 18-28″ on eastern MA by end of Tuesday. 🙂

      4. I looked it sucessive 24 hour snow totals for that.

        For Boston, 18-21 inches 1st day Ending 12Z on 3/18 and 8-9 inches next 24 hourperiod, ending 12Z on 3/19 for a grand total of 26-30 inches.

        I always thought St. Patrick’s Day was 3/17. 😀

  58. Last week = trend south => OTS

    This week = trend north => Rain

    Next week = direct hit => SNOW BOMB

    Wagers anyone?

  59. One would think were due for a snowbomb since we have seen everything from a fish storm to looking to track north of us with moslty a rainorama but maybe some minor accumulating snow at the end if 12z EURO is correct.

  60. On another note, it is more than strange that authorities cannot find the Malaysia airplane that purportedly went down. It is so tragic and unbelievable that a plane could go down, and also go undetected in this day and age. Authorities do not think weather had anything to do with the disappearance which actually one of my initial thoughts, but the weather in the region, I believe, has been good and the search has been taking place under clear skies. Very unusual that there is really not even a clue.

    1. I agree. When i first heard about it i thought it would be a huge story. Now, searching it online, i had a hard time even finding the story. I feel like authorities are downplaying it. But losing a plane? Seriously? That’s beyond bizarre.

      1. Its the top story every hour on the hour CNN , Fox news. It is not being buried. They are treating it as a huge story

        1. Interesting. Looks like i need to watch more tv news. My reliance on the internet for news is limited.

          2. I think the local stations are not carrying it because it is so vague. There was an indepth discussion on Huff this morning as well as other major news media sites.

            They did just announce that the tickets for the two traveling with stolen passports were purchased by an Iranian (not in person) but paid for in person by cash. Some speculation (stress speculation) that they could have carried two parts of an explosive device that went undetected when separated.

            1. Interesting. Yea it was more of a lack of coverage from a local media standpoint. I very rarely seek news elsewhere. I have issues with some of the global media and their agendas and whatnot but i guess that can be true for local ones as well. I will watch CNN tonight 🙂

              1. I understand those issues. I typically go to them for coverage on something like this – not anything politically motivated.

    2. It took quite awhile for authorities to find the Air France plane that went down over the Atlantic as well.

      The whole thing sounds fishy to me with the stolen passports. I would not be surprised if there was foul play involved.

  61. Little cool and cloudy but not to bad, models show possibly mid 50’s tommorrow 🙂

    Everything still points towards a good rain producer here 🙂 some tail end snow with minor accumulations is possible, more possibly north of the pike, good day 🙂

  62. NWS has Boston on edge btwn 1-2 and 2-4 inches. Must be a decent comma head/backlash to this thing.

    1. It concerns me a bit that the Euro is calling for Back End Snow.
      When the NAM does, it’s laughable, but the Euro? I don’t know about that?

      I am still somewhat skeptical on that happening, but we shall see.

      IF the NWS is putting out accumulations, then there “must” be something
      to it. Frankly, I’m surprised. I wonder IF the totals “creep” Southward
      with subsequent runs???

      1. Agreed on backlash snows ……. Not usually a ton of moisture left once the cold air rushes in, but maybe a little more than usual this time.

        1. You’re right. Rarely if ever do we get backlash snows. We’re also on the side of a western-facing mountain. The Whites can get serious backlash snows, and often do in late spring and early fall when cold fronts pass through. I know, I’ve been in several long-duration squalls.

  63. I think there could be flakes falling at the end but I am not buying a minor accumulation the EURO is showing.

  64. Updated thoughts…

    Not SOLD on the track as far north as the models show, yet. That may change this evening. It may be hard to buck the trend soon.

    Next week? Will probably end up not looking a whole lot like the Euro shows right now.

  66. most of the models want to make a pattern change ….. storms move through ohio valley then hug the coast or inland giving coastal or eastern mass rain and interior snows. ski country would finally get a good dumping. we have more snow on our ground than they have so its about time that we get a washing rain storm…..Sadly 🙁

  67. 41 and neighborhood kids from kindergarteners to high school are outside playing catch or on scooters or skateboards. Signs of springs approach

  68. 18z nam even more north. Wow! Even do still wants some backend snow.
    Track is just south of albany then to gulf of maine.

  71. Agree TK about not sold on the northern extent of the track. I have been more bullish on further south and colder for a week and I have to make sure I am not just being the guy who won’t accept the model guidance because it is contrary to what I think should be happening based on numerous factors present in the current climate set

  72. Harvey’s thinking for boston is mostly rain with snow on the back end early call coating to an inch. Tomorrow he is saying spots could hit 60. Time will tell but I’m ready for warmer days all the time. Thursday looks to be cold and we have a watcher for Monday.

    1. Yes, obviously. NWS not totally sold on the current track just yet and is still waiting for final Pacific and Alaska data which is somewhat spotty.

      The Pacific Ocean is in desperate need of some data buoys for sure!

  75. And mr oldsalty said what back end snow. Could be a surprise I think. Big runs tonight and tomorrow.

  76. Thanks for your thoughts above, JMA!

    Yeah, I’m going to shift to a warmer track on my next update. Fine with me.

    55-60 in some places tomorrow! The warm air will just be too established and not replaced with cold enough air fast enough to have more snow involved in the bulk of the precipitation unless you’re in northern New England. We will likely get a burst of snow on the back end but I’m not impressed with how much is likely to fall. Progressive storm. It may be intensifying rapidly but it just won’t be hanging around. We’ll hear from the wind pretty decently on Thursday though, with just snow showers and lots of clouds.

    Nice day Friday, still no change to that part of the forecast.

    Saturday may turn out quite mild as a northern stream low goes well northwest of the area. Cooler Sunday. I think next week’s “storm threat” is fictional.

    1. I don’t think the Euro has a handle on the pattern, which is what I am basing that on.

  79. The problem we are back to with next week’s threat is once again a suppressed/OTS solution, not so much the cold air not being there. Things look too progressive to me for the system to really wind up over the SE and be able to make the turn up the coast like the Euro is showing. That said, there is some promise in the GFS and Euro ensembles of something happening so we’ll have to wait and see.

    It will be pretty amazing to me if we are able to make it through 3 weeks of this cold, fairly active March pattern and come up with nothing but one rain storm. Nonetheless, it looks like it could happen if things don’t align right next week.

    1. If it trends any further north, this event might not be a big precip producer for southernmost New England.

  82. Sorry I haven’t posted. Been under the weather for the last couple days.

    Even though the euro is credited with showing the storm for many runs in a row, but changed course by 200+ miles.

  84. If all these big potential storms of the last few weeks had fully delivered we could have been looking at something like 100 inches for the snow total going back from say the presidents weekend storm where boston got like 5 inches but was expected to get like a foot and same with a few others that looked promising but did not pan out. All and all a good slug of snow this winter and for sure an entire cold winter.

  86. We have had snow every month this winter and actually two nice ones before winter started in early December.

    2. I thought you were kidding till I checked. Gillian and Hadi. I hope our Hadi feels better soon. And yet no Victoria. Who’d a guessed

  88. Hmmmmmm……..

    The pressure of the low, at hr 18, on the 00z NAM is already 994 mb, while its way back in the central Plains. That seems lower, comparatively, then its been previously.

    I’m quite curious to see how low the pressure goes with this run, as the low travels over southern New England.

    If the track has been coming north, thats got to imply better phasing, which could mean an even more intense storm.

  89. 990mb ….. Strong winds on the backside of the storm, if the NAM’s right, maybe a quick blizzard in NW Illinois, near Chicago ?????

    1. Around a foot of snow for the Chicago area with that run. If only something that strong could just south of us to the benchmark this would be a whole new ball game for us in SNE.

  90. I have no idea if the NAM is believeable, but still well to our west and its down to 984 mb over Pittsburgh, PA !!

  91. The NAM is having a nutty ! I think its at 978 mb, explosively developing. Still barely ENE of Pittsburgh. Where is this pressure projection headed ?

  92. The NAM is having a nutty ! I think its at 978 mb, explosively developing. Where is this pressure projection headed ?

    1. Storm seems to hit its deepest just west, than maintains a low 980s mb pressure in its travel through southern New England.

      Again, I dont know if its believable, but that was fun to watch.

  93. Starting the season everyday until next Nov, for the snow lovers and cold lovers it’s been a good winter for you, also models r showing more 50’s this weekend, we shall see 🙂

    1. In 4 weeks it will look much different around here, and for my clients in ri they will probably already have mowed there lawn once already, an inch or 2 or 3 would actually be fine, just bc it will get the product right into the thatch layer. Also if it does snow it melts in a day or 2. Just happy to be moving forward 🙂

  94. 0Z NAM and GFS are a complete JOKE!!!

    Every stinken run has been farther North and this is the farthest yet.
    LAUGHABLE!!!!

    This will track through Montreal before it’s done! PATHETIC!!!!

  95. Looks like today is going to be a nice one. Occasionally, I have been hearing birds singing in early morning. Still looks like there is more very cold weather ahead – it’s March and I know we can get snow into April but I wish temps. would moderate and not go lower than the 20’s. I don’t mind a little more snow it’s just the cold temps.

    There is one crocus in our front yard that is struggling to come up.

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