Quick Changes

170 Comments

7:44AM

High pressure brings a nice mild day today. Cold front settles into the region from the north tonight but never really pushes far enough south to bring cold air back in before low pressure travels along the front while intensifying on Wednesday. This means a mostly rain event for a good portion of southeastern New England (some mix far northwest), but then a switch to snow on the back side as the storm moves away, enough for some minor accumulation but a possible quick freeze up early Thursday (more on this later). Thursday will end up windy and very cold. Friday will be fair and more tranquil as high pressure moves in. A disturbance passing north of the region will bring a milder southwest wind Saturday but with clouds and a rain shower risk, then colder air back in on Sunday with fair weather. Longer range outlook – storminess stays well offshore early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing west to east midday-afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind calm early then E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely, heaviest in the evening, then changing to snow from northwest to southeast overnight with minor accumulation possible. Lows near 30. Wind E 15-25 MPH and gusty shifting to N overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Temperatures falling into the 20s.  Wind N 15-35 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 10. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 34.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 44.

170 thoughts on “Quick Changes”

  4. Good morning.

    Re: tomorrow

    If you like snow, it gets worse with each successive run.
    0Z Euro even farther North.

    Euro even loses the system for next week, err well it tosses it out to Sea Well
    South of the area.

    Bring on 60 for today!!!

    1. The mix/rain line is even making its way up into southern VT and NH. Just read the NWS discussion for Rutland county and they are introducing a period of mix into their forecast.

      1. Pretty Sad.

        Believe me, I’m OK with Spring at this point. What I can’t stand
        and there is nothing we can do about it, is the up and downs
        with temperatures. Let it stay warm. We’ll just get used to Spring and Warmth and the Montreal Express with blow in and we’ll get a Monster snow storm when we DON’T Want it. Never goes the way we want it.

        So, No Snow tomorrow => Bring on Spring and KEEP it here
        until Summer.

        1. Agreed 😀 Heaviest snow now being confined to far northern VT, NH, and into ME with a bullseye of way overdone precip, lol

          1. Someone said (Ace? Mark? Tom?) that
            the heavy snow may end up in Southern
            Quebec! How True!!

  5. Thank you TK

    This morning the dog had to encourage me to go inside rather than the other way around. The birds were welcoming the new day as loudly as I’ve heard in a long while. Cardinals – at least six that I could count – phoebes, chickadees and even a few goldfinches tossed in.

  6. Logan total snowfall to date: 57.1″

    It will be interesting if this ends up being the FINAL total for this winter…not much time left.

    1. Getting very late in the season, but we all know it can still Snow into
      April. It all depends.

      TK said the Euro depiction of a Monster for next week was fiction.

      Barry Burbank last night had a graphic with SNOW? for next Monday. So
      he at least thought that it “might” be possible.

      However, the latest run has sent it FISHING. 😆

  9. I’m a little bit confused….from what I’ve seen the 06Z Nam is significantly further south and east taking the low from NJ over the outer cape and the islands as detailed below. It also takes the 850 line up to about rt 2 and then crashes to the south. Granted the 1000-500 thickness is farther north, I’m not sure this is as set in stone as you may think.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=051&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

  10. Shotime, you’re a fortune teller. That’s an amazing prediction re: snow total. And, it may hold up. We’ll see.

  12. 12Z Nam basically runs the same track as the 06z…850 line is a bit farther north on that run, but the track is what is more important to me. Takes the low off southern NJ coast to just over the outer cape and the islands, not a benchmark storm but any low that takes a pass South and East of us this time of year should be watched carefully.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140311+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

  13. OS, what are the other short term models showing at this point as far as track of the low, precip, etc?

  15. Don’t see much change in sensible weather outcomes for us even if the track is a bit more south on the latest model runs. 850 line is too far north and there is just too much warmth to overcome. By the time the cold air rushes in, most of the precip will have shut off. It will only take a coating of slush though on the back end to make things dicey Thursday AM. There’s going to be a serious flash freeze as temps crash overnight.

    1. There’s going to be much water around, so if the temperature crashes fast enough, yes indeed, there could be a serious problem Thursday AM. We’ll have to watch that carefully.

      Oh so much QPF down the drain. Such is life in SNE.

  16. This sure is close and it won’t take a whole lot of distance to change things. I’m not super confident with the models output of snow especially in situations like this where the R/S line is virtually impossible to predict. Can this type of storm produce it’s own cold? How fast does the cold front get in here, does it nudge the storm a little further south and east? Something to watch. I am not sold on the rainy scenario. Every single time a low tracked to the south and east of us this winter it snowed. Anyone remember the storm last month where it wasn’t “suppose” to snow because the models said so? Well it did and I got 10-11″ and Boston got somewhere around 4-5 if I remember correctly.

    1. It was much colder going into that one. Lots more warmth to overcome and no real cold push til the storm is by.

    1. Not too shabby i guess. Snow is starting to recede near my office building. That can only mean one thing…the invasion of those nasty bird rats waddling around eating grass and defecating all over the walkways. Why are Canadian Geese protected again?

        1. Hahaha, true, although id like to put a little something in the green beer to slow them down 😉

    2. Overcast in and around Boston. It was overcast here in Walpole for much of the morning but sun just starting to peek out, temps will jump. I have 52 right now.

  23. It’s warmer here near Hartford – 54. Think we may have a shot at 60 this afternoon. Lots of bare spots in the sunny areas but the snowpack is holding on pretty good in the shade.

      1. I’m in E.Greenwich ri working, there’s no snow anywhere in people’s yards, but I’m sure there’s a few snow piles in parking lots 🙂

    2. Winter is going going going,,,,,,, GONE!!!!
      I’ve had spring fever for a week now, this is great 🙂

      2. Wouldn’t go that far! Thursday is going to be about as frigid a day as it gets around here this time of year and next week looks very cold, whether we get snow or not. We’re getting brief tastes of spring, but nothing sustained yet on the horizon.

          1. Might not be a whole lot of sun Thursday and snow may be in the air much of the day.

  25. I’d be curious to know what the seasonal snowfall total has been so far down in that area, from southern RI up to PVD and east out through fall river/new bedford. They got much less from every storm that i can recall. Wouldn’t surprise me if it was less than 30.”

  26. Hadi, if ur out there, have u had flu-like symptoms? Ive had something for a couple days, feels like the flu but i cant tell. It hasnt totally wiped me out yet but we’ll see.

  27. It wiped me out for three days. Felt
    Like the flu but wasn’t. Nasty cough and sore throat but didn’t last long

      1. The bug (queasy stomach, headache and a little stuffy) I had last week only lasted about 3 days. I did get a flu shot so I’m not really sure it was actually the flu?
        I did the same – disinfected every surface germy hands touched, along with Lysol spray in all the rooms!
        I hope whatever you have Ace is short-lived and you feel well real soon!

  28. Can’t wait for winter to be over. So looking forward to warm days on a regular basis and its not that far off.

  29. hate spring….. alergies already attacking,allergy medicine will not work for like 2 or 3 days 🙁

    3. Allergies suck but add schoolwork on top of that, double suck.

      How was Stowe? Wish i was going up there this weekend!

  30. Please note, Rhode Island was recently named the 63rd Virgin Island. For those who can’t afford the trip to the Caribbean, just take I-95 South and and starting around Attleboro – as you approach the tropics of RI – you’ll begin noticing major changes in climate, vegetation, etc … Palm trees will greet you on both sides of the road as you meander through the famous curves around Pawtucket and North Providence. Be mindful of falling coconuts from the trees planted on several of the overpasses, including the Branch Street exit in Providence. Take off your winter coats and even your wind-breakers for that matter, and put on your Bermuda shorts, straw hats, and tank tops. Take Exit 9 towards East Greenwich. Once you’re in town you’ll be sure to find Charlie wearing nothing but Speedo’s and a Maui Lei necklace.

  31. I’m not sure why anybody would be rooting for snow now hitting the midpoint of march. Tough winter and people just want some nice consistent warm weather as it makes most people feel good.

    2. It’s a snow blog, and they like weather to control them I guess, again to be rooting for snow still, little bizarre, definatkey the miniority, to each there own, good day, and think spring 🙂

    3. I just enjoy ’em as they arrive. Snow’s good. Warm’s good. Rain’s good. Wind – well I love wind 🙂 Basically, it is all good!

    4. It’s still March and still meteorological winter. It can and does snow in New England this time of year. We can root for consistent warmth all we want but that just doesn’t happen around here on a normal year until mid-late April at the earliest.

      1. Actually we had a good stretch going with no march snow up until last march when we got that big storm. Either way winter is on the back nine she may not want to go quietly but has no choice .

      2. Sure it does, but it doesn’t normally, been starting this time of yr the last 12 yrs, maybe been effected once or twice but it’s not the norm, I expect not much more snow this year so will see

  34. Will a flash freeze will be an issue Wed night/Thurs Morn? Like… maybe in time for Thurs morning’s commute???

      1. Flash freeze is in the extreamly likely event to happen camp.thursdays commute should be a tough one for most with snowy, slushy icy conditions for most ares. I doubt the cape sees any back end snow.

        1. I am fairly confident we see at least some switch to back end snows, but it will not accumulate.

  35. 12Z euro pushes the heavier snow even slightly further north, basically just northern NE at this point, also introducing some rain/ice into southern sections of VT and NH. Watch out in those areas for some major icing.

  37. Just a test – just trying to figure out what symbols/emoticons work.
    (H) (h) :^) (Y) (y) (N) (n) 😐

            1. Thank You for the emoji info. Emoji keyboard is available on iphone OS6 or later without having to get an app!

  41. To all those looking out for hints of spring… there are bulbs coming up in front of Colonial Federal Bank in Wollaston… Just the green shoots so far. So there’s hope. 😉

  42. 12z Euro and Canadian sure are making things interesting for next week. The 12z Euro is oh so close with the ocean storm for 3/17. Slides just south/east but far enough north to give DC a snow event. The Euro then blows up the clipper for 3/19 and gives a sizable 6-12″ snow event for most of SNE. It then has another clipper passing to our south and grazing us with some snow for next Friday. And very cold through the period with the exception of a brief warm-up Saturday.

    GFS op is cold and dry but ensembles have a few members that blow up the 1st coastal and a few more that want to hit us with the second.

    Unlikely that both storms hit us. PV becomes too entrenched over us early in the week and probably shunts the 1st storm out to see. But then it retreats perhaps to allow the second one to get in here like the Euro is showing? Don’t know, but it’s going to be plenty cold and potentially active enough through the period to keep our interest.

    1. Nice job Mark. We’ll keep watching, but I fear more Bitter disappointment
      awaits the snow lover, just like tomorrow’s system that looked oh so promising
      at one point. So for your future systems…for example system 2 goes fishing
      and system 2 checks out the Great Lakes or some other such disappointment. 👿

      1. Could very well be more disappointment but the cold air will be there as will some chances. Just find it hard to believe we could be in such a persistent cold and relatively active pattern for the first three weeks of March and not get any meaningful snow. That’s some bad (or good) luck depending on your perspective.

        If we don’t get anything next week, I think our chances deteriorate significantly thereafter. Sure it could happen, but I think the pattern gets much less favorable with the ridge breaking down in the Pacific and the flow becoming more zonal. Not to mention, we are really fighting climatology by that point.

        1. Indeed, we’re fighting climatology already.

          What’s Boston’s average high now? 45 or 46?
          And that factor’s in the damn East Wind.
          What are inland average highs? 48, 49, 50 already?

  46. US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Prelim high temps for today: BOS at 59 (233 PM), PVD reached 62 (222 PM), BDL at 55 (236 PM), and ORH at 52 (236 PM).

  47. This is not a snow blog.
    It’s a weather blog. It just happens to be written in by several snow lovers.

    I think it’s funny that people get into a tizzy about people rooting for certain weather. Does it really matter? Oh wait, I’ll answer that. No it doesn’t matter whether you root for snow, sleet, graupel, basketball-sized hail, or pancakes!

    The atmosphere has things under control. 🙂

    That said, don’t let today’s mild air fool you. Thursday is going to be a brutal day by March standards. And next week looks like we’re right back to the winter pattern as well.

    Still searching for a genuine pattern change and not finding it…yet.

    1. Well said TK. Do you think you could find the pattern by April? We were just saying that if days at the beach are like today, we would love it.

  48. P.S. … Not too often you see an NWS forecast for only snow showers with high temps in the upper 40s to 50 but that’s just what they have for Saturday. I actually have rain showers in my forecast. That’ll be the other mild day before we snap back to cold.

    2. Did it really. I’m surprised as I worked outside most of the day today and yes it was awesome out but there was a breeze.

  51. TK …..

    With such a deep storm going overhead, any opportunity for convection ?

    Also, do you have any concerns with winds, either ahead of or behind the low passage ?

    Thanks.

    1. Someone on the morning news mentioned winds. I perked right up and of course heard only the word wind….not who was saying it.

      1. Just looked at the NAM wind gust chart. Looks pretty wimpy
        to me, but I’m pretty fussy. 😆 👿 😈

    1. Don’t the headlines apper much WORSE than the totals they painted on
      the Graphic??? Snow to rain to mix to snow….. 😆

      What they don’t say is 90% of the storm is RAIN!

  57. Oldsalty I will be curious as to what your thoughts will be after your am commute on Thursday morning.

  58. Regarding Thursday’s flash freeze, I am not too concerned as far as the streets in the city of Boston as the morning goes on (including most side streets) however, would “untreated” sidewalks and steps remain icy throughout the entire day or will they melt by afternoon?

    The reason that I am not really concerned about the streets is because Boston IMO does an excellent job of treating all streets including most side streets as well getting ahead of even the potential of a flash freeze…Don’t let us down, Maaaarty! 😀

    TK, would like your thoughts on this please. Others welcome as well. Thanks in advance. 🙂

    1. The radar simulations I’ve been seeing seem to give the idea that lighter precip may still be going (a transition to sleet then snow), so I think there is a decent chance that even the main roads could be dicey Thursday morning.

  60. Be interesting to see if Chicago gets the 4-8″ they’re now forecasting. Then there’s always the possibility of lake enhancement. I told my son the other day if he got it, we wouldn’t – vice versa.

  62. The NAM’s at it again, along with the other models. Very quick intensification of this low as its traveling across Pennsylvania.

  63. NWS Buffalo has upgraded the WSW’s to Blizzard Warnings in western NY with 10-20″ of snow and wind gusts to 50mph.

  64. Interesting from NWS Upton – going all in on the CMC/Euro solution for early next week. Even going so far as to call these models “superior” in the long range…

    12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS 12Z CMC SOLUTION OF A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SE STATES SUNDAY…THEN TRACKING NE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NE COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. THE GFS HOWEVER DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN PROTUBERANCE OF THE POLAR VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE…KEEPING THE STORM WELL TO THE S AND E. GIVEN THE OVERALL SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF BOTH THE CMC AND ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED OVER THE GFS SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE LONG TERM…HAVE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC FROM SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

    1. I agree the CMC has been impressive, but calling the ECMWF superior this season is completely erroneous. The GFS has actually be equal to or better than that model this winter in that range. Oops!

  65. Read a post from Ryan Hanrahan, one of our local NBC30 mets in CT and he mentioned that the 12z Euro ensemble mean was closer to the coast than the operational on 3/17 and bullish on QPF with 60% of the members delivering >0.5″ to SNE and 20% delivering >1″.

    The OTS solution is not set in stone….yet.

  66. WeatherWiz… You didn’t miss anything. It was a general comment. I’ve always had that opinion. 🙂

    Philip… I agree with you about the main roads. Tom brings up a good point. And it should be cold enough that untreated surfaces may be slick much of the day mainly because I think sun will be lacking.

    Tom… Remote risk of thunder but it doesn’t look like too much in the warm sector, so I’d lean away from it.

    John… Updating either by 2AM or shortly after 7AM, if I can finish something else in the next hour.

  67. Winter weather advisory is up. 1-3 inches likely for boston and I’m going with the higher total. Snow should stick easily as its going to be brutaly cold tomorrow. Back end snow was always on the table and that’s what we will get. I’m guessing between 12-2 am for that changeover.

  70. Today’s going to be an interesting weather day and I’m looking forward to watching the radar and the obs in northern New England for heavy snow, the flash freeze tonight and a 980mb low coming nearly overhead. I get the idea something will happen thats unexpected.

    Speaking of unexpected, I’d like to congratulate the Denver Broncos on getting Talib. He will be great during the season and likely get injured in the playoffs. Enjoy !! The Broncos, I see, are spending like the NY Yankees. Good, that doesnt have a great track record of working.

  71. Hmmm my last message posted did not take.

    I did answer questions from a few of you. Will try to re-do that on the new blog, but I must go mobile for a while first.

    Vicki, I’ll re-attempt the Contest fix today. Very busy day yesterday.

    Blog is updated!

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