Saturday Update

117 Comments

8:57AM

One cold front is crossing southeastern New England with rain showers early to mid morning. A second front will cross the region from northwest to southeast with some clouds and only a slight chance of a rain or snow shower this evening. In between we will see a variably cloudy sky with only a few isolated rain showers but largely dry weather during most of the day, along with fairly mild air but also a gusty breeze. Not a perfect day, but not bad for mid March near the end of a pretty harsh winter.

The second cold front will deliver another batch of modified Arctic air that will take up residence over the region Sunday into early next week. What could have been a St. Pat’s Day snowstorm on Monday will slip out to sea to the south thanks to strong westerly winds aloft, courtesy our old pal, the Polar Vortex, which is still doing regular wobbles around eastern Canada as it has for much of the winter.

By the middle of next week, high pressure that comes overhead Tuesday will slide offshore, allowing milder air in, and the next weaker storm will likely travel through the Great Lakes and be a rain shower producer here late Wednesday or Thursday, with dry and cooler weather at the end of next work week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers pushing eastward across southeastern MA through 10AM, then only isolated rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a passing rain or snow shower early, then clearing. Lows around 20. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 15. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs around 35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 38.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers late. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy.  Chance of rain showers early. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

117 thoughts on “Saturday Update”

  1. From Longshot:

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The blue color of sky is primarily caused by:
    A. Salt
    B. Water vapor
    C. Oxygen and nitrogen
    D. Dust particles

    Answer later today.

    ………………………….

    Answers so far:
    Vicki: C
    JimmyJames: C
    shotime: B

  3. I just completed a bunch of post on the other blog. Here they are:

    Old Salty says:
    March 15, 2014 at 9:08 AM
    CMC for the 19th wants to something funky with the clipper:

    http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2014031500/I_nw_g1_EST_2014031500_118.png

    Other than that REMOTE possibility, BORING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Blah, blah, blah.
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    March 15, 2014 at 9:11 AM
    Another Look:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=114&fixhh=1&hh=120
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    March 15, 2014 at 9:13 AM
    JMA wants to act up in that time frame:

    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    March 15, 2014 at 9:18 AM
    FWIW, the FIM now still wants to throw “some” snow up here on Monday:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014031400/130/3hap_sfc_f090.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014031400/130/3hap_sfc_f096.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014031400/130/totp_sfc_f120.png
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    March 15, 2014 at 9:18 AM
    FAT CHANCE of that happening. 😆
    Reply

  7. As for the trivia question, I’ll go with B but I have the feeling that D also contributes to the blue sky.

    Hopefully the PV will allow one final snowstorm the last week of the month or the first week of April. It is somewhat of a shame that the mid-Atlantic and NNE are getting good snows and SNE is completely left out. Time is rapidly running out. 🙁

    Total snowfall for Logan so far : 58.6″ (could this be the final????????????)

    1. Won’t be the final. We have several more snowfalls, and it would not surprise me to see the plows out one more time. 🙂

      1. You could very well be right but I’m going the other way saying that window of opertunity is slowly slipping away and I suspect even you could say winter is barely hanging on.

  9. Regarding that missing plane, just a thought…perhaps the plane eventually landed safely on some deserted island and the passengers and crew are held against their will.

    I know it is somewhere out of a TV movie-of-the-week, of course but the plane did travel quite a bit after it disappeared from radar and communication from what I heard on TV this morning on the news.

    Regardless, a huge passenger jet completely vanishing would never, ever happen on an American flight…that’s for sure, and certainly not for days on end.

    1. I wondered about that. Lots of US flights go across the ocean. And we know US flights can be hijacked. I keep thinking its landed somewhere too. If someone experienced enough to fly by GPS points was flying, I’d think they’d have the experience and plan in mind. It’s all guesses, that’s for sure

  11. I say B For the answer. As for the plane, maybe they landed on a mysterious island (lost). But this is like a tv show. This will probabily be one of the biggest mysteries of the decade.

  12. I say B For the answer. As for the plane, maybe they landed on a mysterious island (lost). But this is like a tv show. This will probabily be one of the biggest mysteries of the decade.

  13. Still a miss with the 12z GFS for Monday. Accumulating snow goes as far north Long Island. D.C. Baltimore in line for several inches of snow.

  14. I am officially moving over to camp Spring. I’ll be back around November to join camp snow once again

  22. Last year, I went out on a limb to say winter is over and that Boston will not receive any additional accumulating snow. Many disagreed but it turned out being correct. I’m not willing to go that far this year. However, I will say, that “significant” accumulating snow is behind us. No additional accumulating snow seems to be in the cards through the end of March. It is becoming less and less likely that we see any additional significant snow for the remainder of this year–unless of course you count next winter 😉

    2. Arod what is up? Things good. I agree totally. I said the other day here how fast this month is going by and I really believe things will be turning the Corner quickly. The deeper we go into march snow chances dwindle. But wait April fools storm, rare just like me hitting a scratch ticket for $20 bucks hardly ever happens.

          1. I play lucky for life faithfully and I’m lucky to get a free ticket one in awhile. Maybe I’ll hit that big jackpot Tuesday. If I do maybe I can invest it into buying new computer models.

  26. There will be more free agency players coming to the Patriots, possibly Jared Allen 🙂

    Beautiful day today, high here hit 59.8 degrees 🙂

      1. We r 95% bare here, actually the guys worked locally today applying limes, we hit almost 60 degrees down here for the 2 nod time in the last week. Have a good night Vicki 🙂

        1. My daughter who lives in Uxbridge said they have total snow also. They went to Patriots place today and she was amazed there was no snow there.

      1. According to upper winds on this run, it comes up here, no problem. Just don’t know IF NAM interpretation is correct.

        1. NAM at 84 hours or 2Am Wednesday:

          Surface

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031518&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

          <b<500mb

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031518&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=084

          200MB

          http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031518&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

          It’s coming so far North, this might bring RAIN of all things!!!!

          What’s happening??????

          Of course it is the NAM. 12Z NAM showed this as well.

          NO other models show this feature, so far anyways.

          1. That Northern stream disturbance, effectively causes the PV to relax allowing it to come up the coast. Hope it doesn’t move West.

  30. Well well well, the pattern could get real interesting around here in the next 1 to 2 weeks…

    3. We’re running out of time, TK. I thought that 3 weeks of relatively persistent cold would have at least brought us one snowstorm. Alas, I was wrong. I don’t see much cold air returning after Tuesday. My guess is we do get a wetter pattern, but with much more rain than snow or even mix. Different story in north country, obviously.

      1. Vicki … If I could tell you that on the 15th and be sure about it, I’d be a very rich person. The only thing rich about me is my middle name. Well, Richard… 😉

        WeatherWiz … Just see several opportunities for snow because the PV which is tight and driving a couple systems out to sea is likely to flatten and stretch out across southern Canada. That is the pattern that gave us our snow events this winter. And yes there will likely be enough cold air around to make it interesting, if nothing else.

        Joshua … It doesn’t always work like that. Much of the time we had cold/dry weather because of the orientation of the northern jet stream. And of course it bent back too much to drive Wednesday’s storm too far north. We’re heading back into the pattern that gave us our snow this winter. You may be right in terms of more rain/mix being involved, but there is still a whole lot of cold air in Canada and it’s going to be sitting over or just north of us much of the next 2 weeks.

        1. It may make it interesting to follow but I believe in the end winter snow wise has been over since late Feb, we shall see though, goodnight tk 🙂

          2. Either way, the weather itself has the final say, starting with a close call Monday.

            I currently do not buy the NAM’s hit of a Wednesday snowstorm.

  31. To TK:
    Please comment on the correct answer to Today’s Accuweather Trivia Quiz as shown below. I got this one wrong.

    The blue color of sky is primarily caused by:
    A. Salt
    B. Water vapor
    C. Oxygen and nitrogen
    D. Dust particles

    The correct answer indicated by AccuWeather is C, oxygen and nitrogen. Is this correct?

    1. C is correct.

      The light from the sun, of course, is coming in many colors, but the sky gets its blue color due to the scattering of blue light by the atoms of oxygen, which make up 21% of the gas in the atmosphere (78% is nitrogen and 1% is argon). It turns out the nitrogen also scatters blue light better than the other colors, so 99% of the gasses in the atmosphere are contributing to the blue hue. If we had no atmosphere and somehow could still be here, the sun would be an extremely bright yellow/white light in a black sky with no scattering.

      1. Originally it was believed it was dust or water molecules. But they are not consistent. I remembered that nitrogen was the factor and had forgotten oxygen. But that still left oxygen and nitrogen as the answer. I know there is a name for it. I’ll be back

  34. Today’s Accuweather Trivia Question.

    What is the smallest type of storm is the smallest?
    A. Nor’easter
    B. Hurricane
    C. Typhoon
    D. Tornado

    Answer later today.

  35. After 9 weeks and $1,700, conservation has finally allowed me to take down “some” tree’s. I feel like I won and lost this battle but at the end of the day I’m glad I went through the process. If I hadn’t then I would be paying huge fines!

    1. I have a huge amount of deer in a small wetlands area in my yard. You can see there droppings everywhere and we found 4 ticks on our kids. I have set up a trail cam to see where and when the come into my yard in hopes to better manage them. I also would love to get a picture of the fisher cat.

      1. You are very wise to have done everything by the book. You are finding ticks in winter? Yikes. Do you have outdoor pets?

            1. Just kidding (I think) since I’ve never had venison. But, I still bring the salad just in case 😉

  36. While the eastern US remains colder than normal, it looks like western Europe are the winners, sitting under a ridge, with the full arrival of spring. I think England, France, Spain and Italy, to mention a few countries are seeing temps in the 60s and 70s. Lucky them.

  39. 06Z NAM still has a hit for Wdnesday. Has shown it for about 6 straight runs.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140316+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    Snowmap as of 84 hours. Still going:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031606&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    06Z DGEX

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f090.gif

    Now what if 12Z Run still has it?

  40. I can’t find support for the NAM solution in ANY other model. NOTHING else.
    They’re not even close. The NAM and it’s cousin the DGEX are totally on an island
    by themselves. I guess these would qualify as OUTLIERS! Eh?

    What is causing this? It’s seeing something differently and it has shown remarkable
    run-to-run consistency.

    Hmmmm

  41. Good morning all!

    I am going to update the blog in a little while – just a short update with the full week ahead post coming this evening.

    I updated my Facebook page to indicate the snow showers in the NW & N suburbs this morning as I was watching a narrow Great Lakes plume that survived all the way and then sunk southward into the region. We did have several very light to light snow showres here in Woburn as I was walking around a local pond with my son during the 8AM hour. The plume is dissipating now just south of me.

    The NAM is clearly on green beer. Toss it. We do have storm threats in the future, but that isn’t going to be one of them.

    To Vicki: working on the contest page issue right now. Will let you know as soon as it’s ready!

    The forecast upcoming is not going to look much different than the one I posted yesterday morning.

    If you have any requests for reposts and don’t feel like doing it yourself, I’ll move any messages over to the new blog.

  42. Dumb contest page is giving me a battle.

    My techies will be available for hands-on help in a couple hours. I’ll fix it then. 😀

    1. TK don’t spend a lot of time on it. Enjoy your Sunday. I can post final dates on gardening also. Thank you for the time you take to make all of this happen and for your update. Its an absolutely beautiful day….in many ways even more so than yesterday with the higher temps….enjoy.

  43. From NWS Upton, NY:

    HOWEVER…IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW TUESDAY AND TRACKS IT UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WED. THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A LOW AS WELL…BUT QUICKLY PROGRESS IT OFF TO THE EAST WELL OFFSHORE AND WITH NO IMPACT TO THE AREA. FELT THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY ALOFT OFFSHORE AND NOT TO THE NORTH. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH.

  44. decent snow squall happening here right now.

    Still have 6-8″ on the ground. No bare ground anywhere in my yard

    1. Wow. Two in two days. We have a bare spot about 3×4. That was my 5% ;). But you have at least 2x the amount we have remaining.

      1. We’ve got very little left, mainly protected areas away from
        any sunshine. It’s mostly gone. Can still see some looking around, but I see mostly bare ground.

  47. It looks like the NAM puked out all of that GREEN beer and is now drinking coffee.
    Sure looks like the developing storm in the SE states will move well out to sea, like depicted on the other models.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=063

    It lost the closed low at 500MB and flattened out the flow condsierably.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031612&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=063

      1. There! It was never going to be here to begin with.

        Took long enough!

        My faith in the NAM model beyond 48 hours is ZERO.

  48. After a few cold days to start the week tempatures look to rebound nicely mid week and possibly beyond for more than a day or two.

  50. Thanks TK! 😀

    I can’t believe it is already March…and not only that, it’s about the middle of March!
    Time is really flying by.

  51. Ok, just tossed in an update, no discussion just a forecast. The Week Ahead post will have the discussion later today.

    Highlights:

    *Cold Sunday afternoon, with wind.

    *Colder St. Pat’s Day. Storm misses to south, clouds give way to sun.

    *Fair weather Tuesday, not as cold.

    *Clouds move in Wednesday, wet evening/night.

    *Wet early Thursday, clearing trend to follow, mild air.

    *Fair and seasonable Friday.

    *Colder Saturday, snow/mix possible, maybe very cold by Sunday (like January/February again). No sign of sustained warmth.

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