The Week Ahead

102 Comments

10:05PM

At 12:57PM on Thursday, a highly certain event will take place. This event is the Vernal Equinox, the end of Winter, the beginning of Spring. And that day itself will be fairly mild in comparison to many days we have endured in recent memory. However, this is not an indication of a change in the weather pattern. In fact, if anything, the below normal temperature pattern may be intensifying in the next 14 days. Despite the cold winter, we have not seen much in the way of record cold. That may change, somewhat, before we are done with this extended regime of chill. Some low temperature records may be challenged as we head down the home stretch of March in the first days of Spring.

Backing up a bit, a preview of the weather pattern for this week and resultant sensible weather is as follows…

Monday – St. Patrick’s Day: A snowstorm passes harmlessly out to sea just south of New England, possibly depositing a few flakes on Nantucket and otherwise just fanning its shield of cloudiness over southern New England during the morning, which will retreat southward in the afternoon. High pressure will be responsible for keeping the storm to the south, but also responsible for a very cold day, below freezing in much of the region all day long, and a very cold and clear night following.

Tuesday: High pressure centered just to the north noses a bit further to the south and provides a bright and chilly day but without too much wind.

Wednesday: High pressure retreats to the northeast while low pressure approaches from the southwest. The air will be a little less chilly but a bright start will lead to a grey finish. The air should be mild enough so precipitation arriving at night should be in the form of rain.

Thursday: Low pressure passes north of the region. Its warm front lifts north of the region in the morning, bringing rain showers to an end. Its cold front approaches in the afternoon with another chance of rain showers, but it will be a mild day between the 2 fronts, in the warm sector.

Friday: A gusty northwest wind between departing low pressure to the northeast and high pressure moving in from the west. Also a chilly day but with fair weather.

Weekend: Timing a little uncertain, but looks like unsettled Saturday with low pressure passing through, with track to determine precipitation type and coverage, then a push of very cold air arriving Sunday with more wind.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a little light snow around Nantucket. Lows around 10 interior valleys to around 20 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Decreasing clouds / increasing sun from north to south. Highs middle 20s hills northwest of Boston to lower 30s coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10-15 elsewhere. Wind light N.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-38.  Wind light N to NE.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds.  Chance of rain showers night. Low 28. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early morning and late afternoon. Low 38. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 29. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 16. High 34.

102 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Thanks TK. Record low max temps are nowhere from 26-34 for the last week of the month. I think we have a chance at some of those early next week?

  5. Looks like we have another “watch” period setting up for 8-9 days from now. With a borderline record cold air mass in place early next week, both the GFS and Euro have been hinting at a developing coastal storm around 3/26. Check out the 3/16 12z Euro EPS control run for next Wednesday – it had a 943 mb (!!) low off the mid Atlantic heading towards us at hour 240.

    http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=232577

    As TK has been alluding to, this could get interesting with the cold air in place and the PV position shifting to a more favorable location by this time period.

      1. This was posted by someone on the accuweather forum. You would need accuweather pro or some similar paid subscription to get this. FWIW, they are saying the 0z control run still has this, despite the operational run being further off shore.

  6. And not to jump the gun on the Saturday system….that thing looks like it will have some juice and the potential to produce a swath of 3-6″ north of its track. If the track goes 100 miles south of what the 0z GFS is currently showing (entirely possible at this range), could get interesting around here.

  11. Incredible cold this morning across northern NY and VT for this late in the season. Some lows:

    -29 (!!) at Saranac Lake and Lake Placid, NY
    -25 at Sutton, VT
    -8 at Burlington, VT broke a 129 year all time record low for St Patrick’s Day (breaking the previous record of -6 set back in 1885).

  12. Mark posted the Euro control run.

    Here is the Euro Operational run for 12Z n 3/26:

    http://i.imgur.com/SLohz5F.jpg?1

    Click on image to enlarge.

    This looks like a CLASSIC NORLUN TROUGH set up and a pretty potent one at that.

    Pretty large difference between the control run and the operational run.

    Mar, can you post any information on the “control” run. Curious to learn the
    difference.

    Many thanks

    1. From the ECMWF website:

      The ECMWF weather prediction model is run 51 times from slightly different initial conditions. One forecast, called the EPS control forecast, is run from the operational ECMWF analysis. 50 additional integrations, the perturbed members, are made from slightly different initial conditions which are designed to represent the uncertainties inherent in the operational analysis. The initial perturbations are generated using the singular vector technique.

      2. Many thanks Mark. Much appreciated.

        So it’s sort of a souped up Ensemble mean, if you will.

        Pretty impressive.

        BUT, how many time has the Euro teased us with a monster this
        year only to have it not materialize? Certainly a WACTHER!!

    1. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=6&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=0&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

  15. It’s as cold this morning as I’ve ever felt it on St. Patrick’s Day. Bone-chilling.

    I think next week will see several temperature records shatter. Usually, nature has a way of finding its equilibrium. That may not happen so easily this year. It’s not supposed to be this cold. And, with the persistent lack of snow and moisture to protect and feed plant-life, vegetation will suffer. In addition, animals will have a tough time. They already are. Bird migration is delayed. My guess is mating is also delayed.

  17. Re: Latter this week

    Some models are hinting or depicting a coastal.

    Fact or fiction?

    12Z NAM coming out now. the NAM 06Z was most pronounced.

  19. Today just feels awful, I am done period with the cold!! Heading to Orlando next Friday so I will make sure no storm is within sight 🙂

      1. If this pattern persists into the spring, with the lack of meaningful precip in a while, i could see the spring being on the cool side but very delightful and void of those typical gloomy damp days of spring around here. I’d gladly take the cooler temps but pleasant weather over damp and gloomy.

  20. I saw some extended range temp maps for April and May. It shows temps average a bit higher then normal in April and much much warmer in May. If I read that correctly.

    1. I have a feeling this is going to be one of those years where we flip the switch from winter to summer, without much spring in between, once this pattern breaks.

    2. Taking ocean water temps into consideration I think near to below for April, near to above for May.

      1. Are you thinking tendencies for”sea” breezes for April and “land” breezes for May TK? Is that what you mean?

        1. If you have a strong low passing by to the west or a decent high southeast of New England, I’d think the land breeze would hold at the coastline.

  22. Flurries starting to fly, 1.25 miles inland from the ocean. I’ll bet there’s snow showers going on at water’s edge.

  24. I’ll be out there with the biggest fan I can find to keep that snow away. I think tempatures hit the low 50s by the end of the week.

  25. We’ve had flakes with sunshine since about 11:30 this morning. It sure was cold waiting for my son’s kindergarten teacher to meet the kids at the entrance.

      1. Sure will get cold. Warm-up later this week will be brief.

        You had asked about the marathon number. A friend of mine, who’s run 30 Boston marathons in a row, told me he’d get a number for me as one of the team members injured his groin. It’s not certain, though, that I’ll get a number.

  26. 12Z Euro has pretty much lost the 3/26 event. Has some snow for weekend and inch or 2 is all. A few more inches towards the end of the run.

    More OTS crap…..

    1. I wouldn’t worry too much about the specifics of the surface features on those maps. What’s important is the overall pattern. It’s conducive to snow next week and I believe it will indeed deliver.

    1. We’re hanging on to a crusty inch in Woburn. Half my yard is bare, half has about 2 inches left on it, which is typical. We’ll lose pretty much the rest of it except the largest snow banks (and my brother’s snow pile) this week, then add some snow to the ground next week, which won’t hang around too long given the time of year.

        1. I will be amazed if my big pile is gone next week and it is not close to the size of TKs brother

        2. Strong signals for an East Coast winter storm March 25-26.

          Not a lock, but the pattern favors it.

            1. The last 3 weeks have very little bearing on what is coming up next week.

              If I dismissed next week’s threat based on what happened in the last few weeks, I wouldn’t get many forecasts right. 🙂

  28. Off to Israel for 2 weeks tomorrow. If it snows enough to shovel (Natick) while I’m gone, wife won’t be too happy. Keep it away, and some 70 degree temps when I get back please.

    7. If you want 70 when you get back Dave, you’d better stay for two months, not two weeks.

      safe trip

  29. Brett Anderson, on accuweather, today posted a general outlook for April thru August, through his interpretation of various models.

    His take on May and June …… Wet ……….. Lets hope he’s wrong !

  30. B’s 0-0 after 15 min in the 1st. The B’s have had a grand total of 3 shots on goal in the first 15 minutes! gross!!

  31. On another note, I have read some of the most divergent reports on this year’s hurricane season. Yes, yes, I know everyone is going to say let’s get through winter first. But I read one touting El Nino as a hurricane killer in 2014 and another calling for 17 cyclones including 8 named storms and 3 major hurricanes. At this point, I do not believe anything, but the articles are weirdly different.

      1. Instead of just throwing these little hints out that we may get hit please explain because you have my attention.

        1. To add to John’s question ….. what signals are you seeing that make you think very cold high pressure wont suppress storms, as they have been doing the last few weeks ?

            1. It’s the same reason I explained in the last few days. PV retrogrades slightly, and allows a bit more dip and then NE movement to short waves and better shot at stuff forming along the coast Mid Atlantic to New England.

              Too soon for details, just strong signals of such an event middle of next week.

                1. No prob. I expanded on it below.

                  It’s just an explanation, not a knock on anything that anyone said here (just so it’s not misunderstood).

    1. Early next week’s cold shot looks more significant than the one we’re coming out of now.

  36. DC had 8 inches of snow today. Does that mean that every storm threat from here on is going to do the same thing? The weather doesn’t work that way. We get into regimes where similar things happen, such as a few misses to the south by storms, but all it takes is a subtle shift in the upper level pattern to bring one, or more, storms northward, or shunt them further southward.

    What I am talking about next week (and yes I realize it’s further out than I usually go) is a shift that I believe allows something further north, WITH lots of cold air around.

    Does that mean we’re locked in for a snowstorm? No.

    But it does mean we have a higher risk of one than we have for a while.

    I’ve been doing this for a few decades now. I know better than to turn my back on a trough near the East Coast and cold air in place in the month of March, and I don’t care if it’s early March, mid March, or late March. Climate normals are averages of extremes.

    Maybe it’s time for that list of all the big Spring snowstorms again, just to jog some memories. 🙂

    The above is merely a strong statement on my reasoning, NOT a knock on anybody else’s opinion of the weather pattern. So please do not misunderstand this post. 🙂

  37. The B’s win 9th in a row. I think the modern day record for the Bruins is 12 and I believe sometime in the 1920’s or 30’s they won 14 (I think).

  38. Can see the GFS and EURO both have a system in the 25/26th timeframe identified by TK.

    What amazes me is the cold on the EURO.

    I think I’ll enjoy Thursday’s “warmth”.

  39. I think TK is definitely right about our snowstorm threat for the 25th/26th. Maybe our last big chance of the year. Most models/ensembles seem to want to keep it mostly offshore for now but I like TK’s explanation of why this may come further north. The 6z GFS has a sub-970mb bomb a bit too far off the coast in that range.

  40. Good morning, chilly outside, 5 employees are heading to Whitman bride water today as we speak. I like that the sun is up before 7am again. Models continue to show 50’s tommorrow. Have gained 14 customers in the last week, great start to the yr 🙂

  41. heading up to wachusett today with a friend we heading up and hopefully there around time of opening. 9am to catch some of them groomed trails

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