Status Quo

104 Comments

7:44AM

No change to previous discussion which is basically copied here, along with the forecast that follows, adding a day at the end.

Today: High pressure centered just to the north noses a bit further to the south and provides a bright and chilly day but without too much wind.

Wednesday: High pressure retreats to the northeast while low pressure approaches from the southwest. The air will be a little less chilly but a bright start will lead to a grey finish. The air should be mild enough so precipitation arriving at night should be in the form of rain.

Thursday: Low pressure passes north of the region. Drier air starts to move in. Chance of rain showers early, milder westerly wind.

Friday: A gusty northwest wind between departing low pressure to the northeast and high pressure moving in from the west. Also a chilly day but with fair weather.

Weekend: Looks like unsettled Saturday with low pressure passing through, with track to determine precipitation type and coverage, then a push of very cold air arriving Sunday and Monday with more wind.

TODAY: Sunny except some ocean clouds at times southeastern MA. Highs 33-38.  Wind light N to NE.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing high clouds.  Chance of rain showers night. Highs around 40. Wind light SE.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early morning. Low 38. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 29. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 16. High 34.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

104 thoughts on “Status Quo”

  3. Good Morning all.

    Cold again! Amazing run of cold. Some moderation this week, then what?

    Euro is acting up again for the 3/26 time frame. We shall see. 😀

  4. Unlike the other sure thing opportunities for snow during the past few weeks that didn’t come to fruition, this time looks different to me. The euro is obviously going bonkers which is very predictable and I will ignore that for now. It’s the signals from GFS that interest me the most. This time, its not showing a storm being suppressed and strung out by the PV, but rather, intensified and directed up the coast via the flow around the PV. This is a very different outcome from previous and a good indication the PV might be our friend this time rather than our foe (if you want snow that is). 06Z GFS shows this well and has a very potent system developing in the southern tier and being directed up the coast. The GFS has rarely shown this set-up this winter given its strong bias to underdevelop these types of systems.

  5. Granted, the GFS is still a miss, but a step in the right direction. This may be one of those rare cases where we know a snowstorm will be coming for days with excellent model agreement. Only thing left to argue about is who gets more snow.

    1. Ace,

      I saw those. Pretty Potent systems. We’ll just keep an eye on them, BUT,
      with the trends this Winter and our Nemisis, Uncle PV, still in place, why
      would we get anything but the usual OTS scenario?? I know TK indicated that
      the PV would potentially be in a better position (If you like snow). But the
      way this Winter has gone, I’ll believe it when I see it.

      Then again, it won’t be Winter anymore, it will be Spring. Perhaps it will
      act differently???

      Let’ see what the 12Z Runs show.

  8. Interesting for Saturday according to NWS out of Taunton. Maybe something that needs to be watched.
    LOW CONFIDENCE. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF LOW PRES
    FROM THE WEST. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS NORTHERN SOLUTION OF THE
    GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AND MILDER TEMPS.
    HOWEVER…INTERNATIONAL MODELS ARE COLDER AND FURTHER S WITH LOW
    TRACK AND ECMWF INDICATING MOSTLY SNOW. STILL TIME FOR MODELS TO
    CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST
    COAST.

  10. How Many TIMES have we heard this statement this WINTER?????????

    AS PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES ONSHORE TO THE WEST
    COAST.

  11. The thing we have heard the most this winter as pacific energy moves ashore. Every time we have heard that the low pressure system has gone to our north or too far south to impact us. Maybe just maybe this will be the one to give us an accumulating spring snowfall.

    1. Sure and Pigs will fly and I’ll Win the lottery. 😆 😆 😆

      Until it happens I remain extremely skeptical! 😆

      👿
      😈
      👿
      😈

      2. LOL!!!
        More wishfull thinking on my part with a snow event. Trend is your friend but in this case its not been a friend to
        snowlovers. With that said I would not say the chance of an all snow event is low at this time.

  12. Street sweeping returned to the city of Boston yesterday. I usually don’t see them until early April. 🙂

        1. They have actually started street sweeping on rt 1 here between 495 and plainville, it’s earlier than normal, but I saw them today at 9am

          1. Its actually kind of a waste IMO. Much like plowing an inch of snow or sanding/salting when the snow is just gonna melt or be washed away in a day. It will snow again and there will be more salt and sand put down on the roadways between now and the end of accumulating snow for the season.

            1. We shall see, there have been many times in the past I’ve seen them do this, usually at the end of March and we did not get anymore snow, so the jury is out still 🙂
              I don’t think we get much if anymore snow, we shall see though 🙂 good day 🙂

              1. I guess it would make more sense if the current weather conditions and pattern were different. Seems like whoever is in charge is not taking weather into account at all. Sure, in March 2012, all signs pointed to the end of winter so chances were better for no more snow. This year, given the current state of the region still locked down in winter, chances are good for more snow. Just saying someone in charge isn’t making an informed decision, just a blind one according to the calendar.

                1. I agree for the most part, though I disagree with being locked in winter, we’ve been in spring mode for a couple weeks now mainly bc of the business we have 🙂

  13. Question, does street sweeping actually remove the dirt, salt, and debris from the street, i.e., vacuum it up? or does it just push it around and make it all airborne and distribute it all over the place onto the sidewalks, sides of buildings and businesses, and people’s yards. I never really understood street sweeping.

    2. Good question. They did it early in Framingham last year. I remember commenting on it on WHW. And it stormed and they had to do it again.

    3. sweepers (work directly with one when school gets out) use side brooms to “sweep” the road with minimal water, and then the rear broom brushes whats swept on to a belt, which deposits it into the hopper. Needless to say, its not perfect, but does get most of the debris.

      1. Personally I think it’s chasing a carrot that in the end isn’t there, but again we shall see 🙂

  16. 12z Euro is a monster hit for next Wednesday. Absolutely scary looking. 1-3 foot blizzard for the majority of New England.

    2. Thankfully it is a week out and will most likely change to an OTS scenario or a lakes cutter. 🙂

      1. Don’t worry I will make sure we are storm free next Friday 🙂 for departure and return the following Friday!

  20. I wonder if OS fell over in his chair when he saw the latest Euro run. 🙂 Must be busy at work if we haven’t heard from him yet.

    1. Well the Euro has been wrong all winter…not sure why people are even watching it…and it’s a week out.

      1. The Euro had the last two systems that hit northern NE and the mid-atlantic pegged 7+ days out. Track was not better defined on either until closer to the events but the storm idea was there.

        And this threat is a whole different animal. Different setup, more favorable for east coast storm development, and there has been support from other model guidance of something brewing in this time frame.

        1. Yes, We are well aware of that. So what?
          It still will get f’d up in some way or another, you can
          count on it. 😀

          Everything has to be PERFECT for it to nail us with
          a Biggie. PEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERFECT.

          Hasn’t happened all Winter? Will it now? This event is scheduled for SPRING!!!

      2. Agreed. PURE GARBAGE so far.

        The map sure looks nice. Let’s see if it even comes close.

        I’m sure it will either be an OTS or and Inside Runner.
        One or the other OR perhaps even a total POOF job. 👿 😈

    2. I just did!! As you say, I was tied up at work and just now had a chance to take
      a peek. Pure FANTASY at this point. We’ll see.

    1. Yup. I know. It does look different. I just don’t want to be disppointed again. For now just a watcher.

  23. No way this storm becomes an inside runner. If there is a threat that we get screwed somehow, it is because this thing gets suppressed again or shunted too far OTS. All models have something to varying degrees whether it be a phased system moving up the coast or just northern stream redevelopment. Either way, all the ingredients are there and I think the stars are really going to have to align for us not to get away with something from this. Will it be the bomb that the Euro is showing today? Probably not. But I’d say a much better chance of an accumulating snow this time around.

    1. It’s the Tuesday / Wednesday time frame I’m looking at. 7 to 8 days out is way too soon to narrow it down to much more than a 2-day window.

      1. This is unlike you to be looking out so far, especially beyond 3 or 4 days. I see it, but not buying it, but certainly watching 🙂 thanks

        1. I only do it when I feel confident enough to do so.

          The last time I flagged a storm threat more than 6 days out was last winter (February blizzard).

    3. The Euro track is across central New England confining the swath of moderate snow to VT/NH/ME. This track would not give us much precip at all – just some rain and snow showers. 850mb temps look mostly cold enough but surface temps rise above freezing. GFS track is even further north.

    4. Leaning mild for that one, 40s, mostly rain showers. Marginal temps not that far NW of Boston though so we’ll watch it.

  27. Charlie, is ur company Lawn Pro? I got a flyer in the mail today, company is out of North Attleboro

  28. got home from a great “blue bird ski day” not a cloud in the ski while my friend and I were riding wachusett, groomed trails basically stayed groomed till noon. It was great.

    Now i look at the euro. pure fantasy right now.i think the euro is taking drugs for its sickness update

  29. Euro run verbatim is fantasy but a strong east coast winter storm next week is entirely possible.

  30. LOL – I guess Weather Underground is on board for next week. This is from the 10 day forecast for Boston:

    Tuesday Night
    Periods of snow. Low near 20F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

    Wednesday
    Snow…heavy at times. High 32F. Winds NNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 8 to 12 inches.

    Wednesday Night
    Snow in the evening will transition to snow showers overnight. Low 19F. Winds NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 60%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

    1. LOL – probably computer-generated, or written by a very brave forecaster.

      Watch it be right…

  31. I hear a lot of talk on the blog in regards to spring snowstorms and that March 1984 one is mentioned multiple times. I was born a few weeks after that storm hit. The biggest spring snowfall in my life is the April Fools Blizzard of 97.

    1. The March 1984 storm was almost like a smaller scale version of March 1993 around here.

      12 inches of snow in about as many hours including some intense bursts. Cloud to ground lightning strikes (houses hit). Powerful east wind, gusting 40-60 MPH.

      1. I think it may have been even worse from a commuting standpoint as it took many lots of hours to get home. I don’t remember the trees down in 93 like they were in 84. I’ve said before that the only two times I heard explosive cracks repeatedly from the woods were march 84 and the Halloween storm.

      1. One month from today Vicki I turn 30. I am having a party with my family and close friends to celebrate the occasion.

        1. My son was 30 on March 13. So far we have all been sick so haven’t had the celebration we had planned which makes me feel very sad. But we will. And welcome to the 18 club…..it is a date reserved for Very special people don’t you know 😉

    1. 8 wins away from tying the record for most wins in a row. Won’t be easy to do, but if they keep playing this way…

        1. Behind the Kings the Bruins have allowed the fewest amount of goals this year at 149 and have the third most in the league at 223. What a run especially the last 10 games.

  34. Sorry to be MIA…

    The next 4 days of of temps in the low 40s to low 50s is our brief respite, but in reality one of the longer respites from the cold regime that has been in place. Some forecasters including myself alluded to this possibly happening around the 3rd week of March. Time frame and duration is about what I expected but I thought we might see temps about 5-7 degrees warmer on average. Not in the cards this time and I still believe prolonged pattern change to potential above to much above temps and below average precipitation does not take place until late April to mid-May timeframe. In short we are in colder than average with potential for winter weather events or cold rain events for the foreseeable future.

    ECMWF still sucks…

    1. The atmosphere helps to bend the sunlight at both sunrise and sunset, enough to add a few minutes at both end of the day and thus, you get a bit more than 12 hrs of sun. We need it this year. 🙂

  36. I wonder how many more weeks, or angle increase in the sun ……. will it take to start moderating eastern Canada a bit, so that if our weather keeps predominately coming from the north, at least the extreme chill in these airmasses will begin to moderate a little.

    I mean, I’m seeing upper 20s and low 30s next Monday and Tuesday. I find that amazing, especially if its accomplished with fairly sunny skies.

    1. That is pretty crazy even in November, let alone late March. More like January cold for this time of year.

      1. For sure. I’ve given up waiting for it to warm up. My kids and I have been bundling up, playing wiffle ball outside in the late evening light. Strange a bit having it so bright at 6:30pm and yet so cold.

  37. Logan’s at -5.2F for March and is staring at another -12 degree departure today. The last 10 days of the month look well below avg.

    I dont think the +8.4F departure of the very recent March 2012 will be reversed, but -6 to -6.5F wouldnt surprise me.

  39. Moring….

    UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

    So where is this storm for the 26th? Euro says NO! GFS says NO!
    CMC still has something, but nothing like depicted yesterday.

    Models have been out of their minds.

    CMC Meteogram:

    .94 inches for 3/26

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=00&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    CMC surface, doesn’t seem to add up to Meteogram?????

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=180

    1. 00z GFS has it right IMO.

      There’s a channel carved in the atmosphere it seems to me and it’s OTS.

      1. Sure seems that way, doesn’t it? There’s still time for it to change, but OTS seems to be the trend.

        Pattern change in May? UGH!!!!!

        That would be dreadful.

      1. It’s still “too cold to snow” O.S.

        We’ve had some what, 20 degree below average days lately. Put that in January and it’s single digits for highs. Too cold to snow.

  40. Good I hope it stays that way. Nobody wants anymore snow or cold this time of year. General conversation with anybody and the first thing brought up is usually how cold it is.

    1. It’s the 1st thing brought up in every conversation with clients on how bad this winter was, worst winter in many many yrs good day john

  41. Heading out to work, don’t chase the carrot, winter is over, think spring!!!
    Looking like a couple of nice spring days ahead 🙂

  42. No changes to forecast.

    Euro is going to do it’s flip flop. I’m getting used to it.

    It’s not about chasing carrots, Charlie. It’s about trying to forecast the weather. Have a great day.

    Blog updated!

  43. So after looking at some of the models. Im actually watching sunday as the cold front moves through saturday (rain and snow showers) Area of low pressure seems to want to form and could give some areas (cape and islands some light snow/rain sunday afternoon?

    Mid week storm…
    Gfs. good size storm. goes mainly out to sea
    euro. gives southern new england a late season winter storm
    canadian gives southern new england a late season winter storm.
    All three shows a good size storm what will determine what happens is its track, my guy says out to sea though the skier in me wants a few more weeks

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