First Day Of Spring

226 Comments

9:32AM

We observe the Vernal Equinox, or the start of Spring (or maybe more ceremoniously, the end of Winter for some of you), today at 12:57PM. But as we know in New England, the season on the calendar does not always match up with the weather. And even though today will be a fairly nice day once we clear out the lingering clouds and low level moisture, we’ll be dealing with more wintry weather especially in the days from the end of the weekend into the middle of next week. The overall outlook remains largely unchanged. We’ll still be seeing a nice afternoon today, a cooler but dry Friday, a small storm system with minor precipitation Saturday, a shot of cold air Sunday into next week, and a potential winter storm in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. So, for now very little changes on this forecast, and as the days go by I will try to fine tune the threat for next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds, areas of fog and drizzle in the morning, giving way to afternoon sun. Highs in the 50s. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of brief mix/snow northern MA and southern NH in the morning, otherwise a few mix/rain showers. Low 30. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 15. High 35.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 15. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

226 thoughts on “First Day Of Spring”

      1. I’ve never seen them live. Saw them perform 2 songs on
        Saturday Night live and they were awesome!

  5. A somewhat productive rainfall in southern New England last night.

    Bedford, MA : .32

    Logan : .28

    Plymouth : .39

    These next 4 weeks or so has the strong sun, but no vegetation. Put together 2 or 3 sunny days in a row and the top layer of ground can become quickly tinder dry. I am glad to see the rainfall last night.

  9. Thank you, TK !! In two hours and 7 minutes all snow will melt and the temps will rise to 60 and remain there for a couple of months………………no 😉

    How is that snowpile in your brother’s yard doing? The one on my deck is not decreasing at the same rate as the snow in my yard. Do piles keep themselves colder??

    1. I’d be willing to bet as you got more into the core of the snowpile, the temperature would be a little cooler than on the edges and sides… the pile on my street corner is still there, but nowhere near as mountainous as it was 🙂 Now, it’s just a pile of black snow :green: yuck. We got a very quick coating of snow last night that just as quickly turned to a mix, and then rain – you’d never know we got that coating, as what we got last night has melted, and my yard is turning to slop.

    1. The NAM has just been horrible at this range lately, I would take that solution with a grain of salt.

      1. Of course, that is a given.

        I still find it interesting and far more plausible than it being
        the only model to show a storm coming up the coast
        over this past weekend.

  12. Sunday River received a foot of new snow last night and are 100% operational. Excellent late season skiing this year. Unfortunately had to cancel my trip to Killington last weekend but am now going this weekend. Looking forward to it.

    Also, it’s encouraging now that there is unanimous model support for a large/phased ocean storm next week. It is all going to come down track to determine impacts in our area. Track will be dependent nuances with the shortwaves, timing and degree of phasing, amt of ridging out west, etc. All of this stuff which we won’t have a better handle on until later this weekend.

    Keep in mind that this storm is so large that even the sideswipe solution that is being depicted by this morning’s GFS and Euro runs would still deliver an impactful 3-6″ snowfall across most of the area.

  13. Partly to mostly cloudy, temp is 43.5 degrees, we have no snow at all here, not even shady places in the Foxboro to North Attleboro area.

    1. Still snow from the larger piles and along the edges of the roads and driveways in Sharon, but only about 10% remains elsewhere, even in shady areas.

  14. From WPC:

    MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED UPON A MORE COMPATABLE/WELL CLUSTERED SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PATTERN AS AN ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ERN PAC/ALASKA REX BLOCK…WITH RIDGING BUILDING AND WORKING INTO THE WRN US IN BETWEEN.

    IN THIS PATTERN THERE MEANWHILE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MARCH. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR WRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM INTENSIFICATION TUE-WED GIVES THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THE HIGHEST THREAT OF MEANINGFUL LATE SEASON SNOW/WIND.

  15. There won’t be a storm on Sunday that’s for sure. Nice weekend on tap. Still hoping Wednesday is a complete miss.

    1. Saturday isn’t supposed to be all that great. Raw, gloomy, showery. Sunday chilly but otherwise nice. I wouldn’t exactly call it a nice spring weekend.

  16. Vicki… Still have a commenting issue on the 2 pages. You can post an update on the main page and I will transfer it later. Will get a snow pile picture later today. 🙂

  17. 12Z GFS has the same feature as the NAM for later Sunday, only it is surpressed
    farther to the South, so much so, no precip up here.

    Re: Main event

    GFS still has it, BUT it sure looks to be OTS. Waiting for a few more panels.

    Upper winds “trying” to turn and amplify more, but not quite enough on this run.

    Very Powerful storm, “Just a bit Outside”

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014032012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=144

    However, it does appear to be a wee tinsy bit closer than 06Z run.

    2. Couple inches for the area on that run. 00z, 06z, 12z all about in the same position at the same time. I thought 00z and 06z threw a bit more snow back into the area, 12z the least amount of snow but storm appears to be strong and very well organized no matter what. Ensemble mean has been consistently a little closer to the coast.

  18. TK – I’m sure the guesses are fine here. You have enough to do without worrying about the contest page 🙂

    Please let me know if I missed anyone’s guess. Thanks!

    DS 3/25/14
    Tom 3/30/14
    Captain 4/1/14
    Deb 4/2/14
    OS 4/4/14
    JimmyJames 4/4/14
    Matt 4/5/14
    Kane 4/6/14
    Philip 4/7/14
    Charlie 4/9/14
    Haterain 4/10/14
    Sue 4/13/14
    Keith 4/15/14
    Joshua 4/16/14
    hadi 4/19/14
    Mark 4/19/14
    AceMaster 4/20/14
    Scott77 4/21/14
    Bearlb67 4/21/14
    Shotime 4/22/14
    WeatherWiz 4/26/14
    North 4/26/14
    Vicki 4/29/14
    Coastal 5/3/14
    GoForSnow 5/5/14
    Merlin 5/10/14

    1. Vicki – is it too late to enter this contest? If it is – please don’t worry about it. Rules are rules – things have been crazy around here for so long; but I know they are for other people, too. So if it’s not too late for me or anyone else to give a number, let me know. Thanks.

      1. I’m sorry and of course I can add it in. Here are the corrected guesses. Did I miss anyone else?

        DS 3/25/14
        Tom 3/30/14
        Captain 4/1/14
        Deb 4/2/14
        OS 4/4/14
        JimmyJames 4/4/14
        Matt 4/5/14
        Kane 4/6/14
        Philip 4/7/14
        Charlie 4/9/14
        Haterain 4/10/14
        Sue 4/13/14
        S Clarke 4/14/14
        Keith 4/15/14
        Joshua 4/16/14
        hadi 4/19/14
        Mark 4/19/14
        AceMaster 4/20/14
        Scott77 4/21/14
        Bearlb67 4/21/14
        Shotime 4/22/14
        WeatherWiz 4/26/14
        North 4/26/14
        Vicki 4/29/14
        Coastal 5/3/14
        GoForSnow 5/5/14
        Merlin 5/10/14

  19. Thanks for posting Vicki! If the tues/wed storm does materialize, its possible no one will win this, lol

    1. IDK – the pile I have is nowhere near as large as the pile TK’s brother has and my pile is not dropping by much.

    1. Thanks Shotime….I watched it earlier and found it very interesting. Looks like this one will be a close call.

    2. Thanks, shotime. So one map says a warm April and another shows a blocking pattern. The storm next week might go OTS or might come up the coast. And I loved the answer when the cold weather leaves for good, it will be warm. 😆 Ain’t it the truth!

  24. 12Z CMC is in:

    144 hours or 12Z Wednesday:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144

    156 hours or 0Z Thursday:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

    Meteograms:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=std&lang=en&map=us

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    That’s about 33 mm or “about” 1.3 inches qpf, all as SNOW on that run.

    CMC has been consistent.

    It amplifies the upper winds and cranks this thing right up the coast.

    1. Well that’s nasty. I know we have just had a full moon but do you know how tides looks next week? I would hate to have vacation cancelled two years in a row due to ocean damage.

    1. Hadi, for some reason your map shows it at 982 while I am looking at one that shows 966. Maybe it’s a timing difference.

          1. Let me know and we can chat when you are ready. Don’t wait too long for a fall crusie, space is much tighter in Sept and early Oct

  37. Around a foot in boston to as much as 15″ south coast. Very sharp cutoff to the north and west.

        2. That’s what I’m rooting for ace is that exact outcome. Nobody wants anymore snow believe me. Only a certain few do out there.

          1. Its gotta be more than just a coincidence if that happens. There has to be a logical explanation.

  39. We used to laugh at the GFS all the times it did this (it has it, 12 hrs later it doesnt …. 12 hrs further, it has it with a pressure of 1006mb, yet 12 hrs later, it is 982mb).

    This is just ridiculous !!

    Honest to goodness, the weather community is sitting blind with all the operational runs of these various models.

  41. I have got to say, for 5-6 days out, the major models have had excellent run to run continuity and consistency with each other for this storm. Yes there are going to be run to run wobbles in track and differences in how fast the system strengthens, but the idea of a major ocean storm tracking close by is there. You can’t ask for much more from these computer models at this time frame. When have we ever had a system locked in at this time frame? Maybe the superstorm of 93 but I can’t think of many other instances.

    2. I respectable disagree, there’s been many times this past winter that this blog got excited only 3 days ahead of the pending storm bc of good consistency, for it to go poof, wouldn’t suprise me in the least if this happens again, not buying it until 1 day before, even then I probably won’t buy it. 🙂

    4. Mark, I would say the models have shown this sort of thing this winter and then the storms just don’t materialize or they go OTS. The one thing I am sure of is that there will be model run changes. Five days out is just too many to have any certainty.

      1. Have the models all be in agreement this far out this past winter? It seems to me that each would have its own scenario pretty much until the last minute. Maybe I’m not remembering accurately.

        1. There have been a couple times where at least the big 3 have been in good agreement this far out. That agreement however, only lasted a day or 2 at the most then began to diverge. We have yet to see if this time is any different. We need this same general model agreement all the way through the weekend, then i think we will have something.

        2. That’s my point – I can’t recall another time this winter at this time frame where we have had such unanimous agreement in a large storm forming, and in the same general area. In past events, we had models differing greatly at this time frame in track, degree of phasing (if any), and strength.

  42. Eric fisher tweet

    @ericfisher: No change today re: next Tue night/Wed potential storm. A big one may be nearby, but not anywhere near a lock. COLD either way.

  43. Two bullesye areas on that 12z EURO run. One in Mid Altanitc and another in eastern SNE.
    I get side swiped on that run as well as the Canadian but still gives a moderate snowfall.

  46. Hi all!
    Rex Block is coming for an early Spring visit next week, and probably bringing significant snow and wind with him. 😉

    1. I seem to remember the rex block coming into play for a storm or 2 last winter. Was one of them the Feb blizzard???

      1. There isn’t any left. I was there when TK started mentioning this several days ago. Bought out the stores…..all of them 😉

  49. NWS has Spring Fever.

    Excerpt from the zone forecast for this afternoon.

    “Near steady temperature in the mid 40s. Temperature falling into the mid 40s late.”

    So, it’s going to fall from the mid 40s to the mid 40s. What a drop! 😉

    1. Those guys are pretty funny sometimes. I guess there isn’t enough staffing
      to allow for an “editor”. 😆

      1. They are a great group of guys and gals. I know most of them in one capacity or another because of the online interaction and the in person interaction with many of them at the annual conference.

        Bob Thompson is an excellent M.I.C. and he has a great staff.

        Glen Field is a funny guy. If you see him in person and he often MC’s the conference, he can seem a little scattered, but he’s very friendly and does a great job as the warning coordination met. 🙂

    1. Ha! I was just reading that then came back here to see u had it posted 🙂 I really found the part interesting about the tweet about the CPC 6-10 day outlook having analogs to the Superstorm of 93 and the April Blizzard of 1982

      1. The thing that comes to mind as far as comparisons, based on guidance, is April 1982.

    2. Love it…
      The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is calling it “an interesting late cold season weather pattern.” By this time next week, I’ll bet some people will be choosing slightly more colorful adjectives.

  51. Compared to the no-blocking we have had this winter, some of these maps look like a Tyrannosaurus Rex Block.

  52. I’m completely in agreement with CPC’s 6-10 and 8-14.

    The 6-10 is probably the highest cold departure % forecast I have ever seen on that product. The 8-14 at least has slightly lighter shades of blue. 😉

    2. Tuesday April 6 1982. Powder blizzard. 16 inches around my area, drifts 2-4 feet. Temp was around 20 during the storm and spent the next day in the teens. All day in the teens on Wed April 7. Insane. Along with really strong wind.

      Easter was that Sunday, April 11, and there was no snow left on the ground by then.

      1. Yes,

        My son’s birthday is April 8th. I helped him and his friend
        make a Snow Bunny instead of a snowman! I have a photo somewhere. If this looks real, perhaps I’ll find it and post it. 😆

  57. Taunton is at it again:

    A couple of exerpts:

    THINKING AT LEAST SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AMPLITUDE
    OF MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH MAY YIELD AN INVERTED SURFACE
    TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BACK
    ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD PROVIDE LEAST
    A PERIOD OF SNOW.

    Then, what the bleep is this????????

    IN ADDITION…THIS SYSTEM APPEARS OCCUR DURING THE TRANSITION
    OF A PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC REGIME FLOW
    OVERSPREADS THE CONUS. BIG STORMS SOMETIMES ACCOMPANY THESE PATTERN CHANGES.

    Hmmm I thought we were locked into this pattern at least into the beginning
    of April? What happened to the Rex Block? Going away after the storm?

    What’s up with that???

  60. Mid week storm…
    Gfs. good size storm. goes mainly out to sea
    euro. gives southern new england a late season winter storm
    canadian gives southern new england a late season winter storm.
    All three shows a good size storm what will determine what happens is its track, my gut says out to sea though the skier in me wants a few more weeks(also hearing TK on board already makes me second guess my gut 😀

    GOD DARN ALLERGIES ALREADY!! 🙁

  61. The latest 6-10 day CPC outlook has the same well below normal temps with above normal precip (cold & snowy) but the 8-14 day outlook now has normal temps with well above normal precip (mild & wet?).

    TK – Is this pattern change for real after next week’s storm and if so, will major flooding become an issue for the first half of April due to melting snow and heavy rains?

    NWS hints that big storms often bring major pattern changes!

    1. I think the pattern relaxes for about a week. It won’t be a long-term change. We go back to cold after that.

    1. I don’t trust any model right now, least of all the 18z GFS. OTS may in fact be a final solution, but I would never take that solution from the 18z.

      1. I certainly didn’t say I trusted it or that I thought that was the solution. Merely posting results of the run.

        We’ll see what the 0Z runs have to say.

    2. Even further OTS than previous runs. Zero snow offered up on that run. Bias? Possibly. But a consistent bias.

  64. I love nights when windows are open and you hear the voices of kids playing while their parents stand half watching and half talking. It sure announces spring better than any calendar or weather model.

  65. Update on “The Snow Pile”.

    5 feet high,
    10 feet wide,
    20 feet long…

    Picture tomorrow. 🙂

  66. I have 10,000 square feet is sod being installed this aping in my back yard. Is a sprinkler system worth the investment and if so what would it roughly cost?

    1. You will benefit from a sprinkler system but keep in mind system needs to be drained every fall and you’ll probably have to replace heads that pop every season so those two alone can be costly. If you know a plumber that could help if he were to give you a break. So basically you need to look at the pros and cons. Price can vary depending on the system.

    2. no sprinkler could actually over do it. Get a hose . get a sprayer for the hose. put it on use that.

  68. Sprinkler systems are a big waste of water. Lawns in New England need about an 1″ of rain per week. Mow the grass high and water deeply occasionally, and your lawn will be fine, unless you want the artificial green look all season long.

    1. I generally keep my grass fairly long to prevent it from drying out. I am not interested in watering the lawn every morning but rather when I needs it. The first week is critical. I go to work very early in the morning so it a hard for me to get out there and move the sprinkler heads around.

  69. Pete is saying the long range European model 20+ days out is showing a pattern change to warmer weather. As far as the storm goes he is not touching that yet just saying the chance is there.

    1. How foolish of him to say what a model is showing and then say he won’t commit for next week.

      …….thought I’d get it out there before everyone else did :D.

  70. The last time March was colder in Boston was in 1916…

    Boston total snowfall for 1915-16 = 79.2″

    Terry Eliasen has a pretty good analysis of the spring forecast, and it looks quite cold for April and doesn’t look like much of any “hot” weather for the spring overall…just plain normal temps for May and June which is fine with me…as long as its not a repeat of 2009.

    I wonder why only Eric (or Barry) can produce an evening blog….WBZ Trolls still alive and well as always. 😉

    1. His comments:

      Wxrisk.com
      Liked · 5 hours ago

      *** 12z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN going balls to the wall FOR MAJOR/ HISTORIC EAST COAST WINTER STORM MARCH 25-26… ***

  75. NWS, Upton, NY:

    CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO LATE MON NIGHT INTO A POTENT OFFSHORE STORM PASSING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TUE NIGHT PER 12Z ECMWF/GFS AND THE WESTWARD-LEANING CLUSTER OF 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…VIA PHASING OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

    1. Here’s hoping that it signals a pattern change to warmer and dryer, and that the snow melts *really* fast…

  81. Tweet from Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 41s

    Interesting hypothetical – even if Boston somehow managed to get 2′ of snow next week, still not a Top 10 snowiest winter.

  83. oz Euro is more east and a sideswipe for SNE with a 3-5″ eastern and southern areas. Continues to do its 0z/12z wobble – really odd.

  85. Even with a sideswipe as depicted by gfs still puts down a decent storm. 00z euro has a monster but too far west for a direct impact. Clearly all models have it now it’s where does it end up going.

    1. 0Z UKMET

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144

      0Z FIM
      Experimental FIM Model Fields
      Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 21 Mar 2014 – 00Z

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014032100/130/3hap_sfc_f132.png

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014032100/130/3hap_sfc_f138.png

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014032100/130/totp_sfc_f156.png

    3. There does seem to be a theme of at least some snow with this. I wonder where I left the shovel ???

  87. Jesse Ferrell, over at Accuweather, has a good blog on record highs vs record lows acheived in a couple different recent time periods, for both the US and the whole earth. Interesting ……

  88. Closer look at CMC:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

    Meteogram:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    that’s about 32 or 33 mm let’s call it 33 mm OR about 1.3 inch qpf for Boston.

  89. Thanks for the links Old Salty and Mark.
    Gil Simmons our meteorologist at WTNH here in CT said storm threat increasing with the track coming closer for Tuesday night Wednesday while Joe Furey at WTIC were on the western fringe.
    With the system so large I don’t see how there is no impact to SNE even if most of the storm system is offshore.

  91. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ON TUE…AND THEN CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
    ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO LATE MON
    NIGHT INTO A POTENT OFFSHORE STORM PASSING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
    40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TUE NIGHT. 00Z/21 MODEL SUITE KEEPS GOOD
    CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS ALTHOUGH AM DISCOUNTING THE TWO
    SEPARATE LOW PRES CENTERS THE CMC AND EC DEVELOP OFF THE MID
    ATLANTIC COAST. THEY ARE TRYING TO KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
    FROM PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGGING TROUGH WITH A FUJIWARA
    EFFECT AS IT LIFTS NWD.

      1. This system looks to bomb out and go through bombogensis. The question is always with the coastal storm the
        track and if it comes to the benchmark this COULD be a big spring snow event for SNE.
        As I said earlier I don’t see how we don’t see any impact with how large the storm system is.

        1. I don’t like it that some models have it getting tossed outside and this double storm system blows.

          Onto the 12Z runs. Still plenty of time.

  92. Busy day ahead, I’ve gotten 341 customers 1st visits done, ahead of schedule by just a few days, off to Stoughton/bridgewater 🙂 good day 🙂

  93. The track for next week’s storm will likely change on most (80%??) model runs. It’s a safe bet that the track pendulum will swing. Not sure we will know much more even early into the weekend. I still don’t trust the models … they had a bad winter. In the end, I would not be surprised to see a bomb or OTS, at least at this point.

  94. If you want a snow storm, then the ONLY good thing I can say is that the GFS
    has trended closer to the coast and the CMC has been extremely consistent.
    The key is the trend of the GFS. GFS does NOT have this double barrel system.

    The Euro is totally F’d up. Big hit, OTs, Big hot, Ots. It changes with each run.
    The 12Z runs = off shore.

    Crazy stuff.

      1. The 0Z and 06Z GFS gave most in eastern MA a healthy 6-12+” of snow. Hardly a glancing blow/miss. I guess one could say glancing blow since it is the very western edge of the storm, but the storm is shown as so large and intense that a glancing blow would be a big blow to most.

  96. The 06z is slightly ots slightly more than the 00z gfs run, it looks like a glancing blow or ots solution looks likely, we shall see 🙂 if this does come to fruition, I’m gonna use it as a rain day and use it as a meeting day along with a spring cleaning of the shop, still think in the end it won’t be a big deal other than everyone complaining. Good day everyone 🙂

    1. 06Z gave a little bit less snow, about 7 or 8″ down from almost a foot on the 12Z. I wouldnt necessarily call 7 or 8” a glancing blow. Sure, the GFS had been mostly OTS until last nights 00Z which introduced a pretty big hit to the area, but ensembles and means for the big 3 models have been decent hits for the last few days. I see nothing that tells me this will be entirely OTS or even just a couple inches. Every bit of evidence points to us getting at the very least a moderate storm out of this. Confidence is increasing.

  97. Quick update posted (forecast only, full discussion later)! No changes at this time!

    There will be too much overreaction and “final calls” made based on 1 or 2 runs of guidance today. Not a smart move if you are a forecaster. This thing is still too far away…

    Great day all!

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