Friday Morning Update

290 Comments

7:36AM

No current changes to previous discussion. This is just a forecast update. Full discussion and updated forecast coming this afternoon. Have a great day!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of snow far northwest of Boston overnight with minor accumulation. Lows 25-30. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of brief mix/snow northern MA and southern NH in the morning, otherwise a few mix/rain showers. Highs 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 15. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 32.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 15. High 31.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 40.

290 thoughts on “Friday Morning Update”

  3. If we don’t get at least a few inches of snow next week, I am definitely putting my shovel away for the season.

  4. Right now and I say right now, the options for next week’s storm appear to be:

    Big Hit
    Glancing Blow
    Out to Sea

    It does not look like Inside runner/coastal hugger is in play (for now anyway).

    I’d give the chances of each option above at about 33%, yes pretty much equally at this point. I leave 1% for the odd ball chance that it hugs the coast or moves inland.

    Put them on the wall and throw a dart at it. Where ever it lands, that’s your forecast.
    That is just about where we are at with this system as of this Friday morning.
    We need MORE information that just isn’t forthcoming at the moment.

    😆

    2. Were you reading his blog? There he said the jet stream might take “…what looks to be one final plunge down the east coast.” And ” In any event, that should be it as our pattern should finally start heading toward warmer weather thereafter.”

  6. Hey OS – Where does the high pressure set up prior to the storm’s arrival? I would think that should be the key to the final track…

    1. I’ll need to look again, but if I’m not mistaken, there seems to be 2 Highs.
      One to the East and one to the West with the storm track between the 2
      of them.

      Yes, this shows it pretty well as of 06Z on 3/26. It clearly shows a high to
      the West and another to the East. Not our usual set up for a big snow storm, however, it will be so cold, it won’t matter.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=120&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_atlantic_120_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140321+06+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model

  7. I would take a few percentage points away from the OTS solution. The GFS has started its trend closer, so much closer in fact that it is delivering a healthy 6-12″ to most of eastern MA. This is the one model of the big 3 that was yet to make that leap toward a closer solution (at least for its op run, ensemble means have been closer all along). CMC has gone away from the OTS solution. Euro, well, i dont know what to think of it. For now, until it stops its on again off again yo-yo crap, i cant really take it seriously and weighting it much less than GFS/CMC. Point is, im not seeing much credible evidence anymore for a completely OTS solution.

    1. That’s fine, but I don’t agree. I think that an OTS solution is still on
      the table.

      But, this is why we have a blog… to have these discussions and it’s ok that
      we don’t always agree.

      What percentages would you place on the outcomes?

      OTS 20%
      Grazing 60%
      Direct Hit 20%

      Something like that?

      We’ll know more soon enough.

      I am very curious to see IF the Schizophrenic Euro flips back to a Direct
      HIT instead of the wimpy grazing. 😈

      IF it shows a grazing or even OTS, then I say OTS is even more in play.

      I honestly don’t think that will be the case. I’m guessing Euro back to more
      of a hit with the 12Z run.

      1. Fair enough 🙂 Yea those percentages are ok, maybe 15%, 70%, 15%. I’d say given the past couple storms, the euro has been consistent with one thing, 12Z hit, 00Z OTS. I’d give the euro a 100% chance of being a hit on the 12Z 🙂

  8. The most likely outcome, at this juncture, would be a graze/glancing blow. But we have to use those terms with caution bc even then, this storm is appearing to be large and powerful, a glancing blow from this would equate to one of our biggest storms of the season.

  10. WPC write up,

    WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE. THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH–THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH’S NATURAL BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

    ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS–INCLUDING THE 00Z/21 GFS–DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
    THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING, INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A STORM.

    1. Nice Write up. Frightening. Thanks for posting.

      IS DT going to get his Historical? Or will it by Hysterical?

      BTW, Hadi, are you posting in Flight?

      I thought devices could only be set to airplane mode, which would mean
      you didn’t have access to the internet? I am Curious since I haven’t flown
      in a year.

      Have fun and enjoy Orlando.

    1. Very true.

      Did you look at the FIM BOMB?
      IF I calculated correctly, it has a 948mb Super Storm, although, “just a bit Outside”. Still, even with the outside pass, drops close to an inch qpf on
      Eastern sections.

  13. How about this strong wording

    …NOR’EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
    TUESDAY NIGHT…

    WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA
    DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.
    THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR
    FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
    NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART
    AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE
    BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW.
    SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN
    RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING
    THE MONTH OF MARCH–THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH’S NATURAL
    BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

    1. That’s some pretty serious wording.

      “could” this be the one?

      You want to know WHY this is a certainty?

      I am scheduled for a colonoscopy on Wednesday and it has already been
      rescheduled 3 different times. So, C’mon, you know it is going to be a MEGA
      MONSTER HIT and I’m going to have to get over to the hospital anyway. It’s scheduled at the BI which is about 2 miles from the house. 😈 👿

      1. Good grief – hopefully you will not get there to find out the doctors didn’t. Some procedures can be cancelled the day of….not a colonoscopy.

        1. Since I am so close, not a big deal.
          BUT, I’d really be pissed IF I did the prep and it
          got cancelled. A real S****Y situation! 😆

  16. Everyone does realize who is at the WPC and does a lot of these analysis, one of the best IMO, Paul Kocin.

    1. I was not aware of that Hadi. That’s good to know! I agree, one of the best. He’s seen and forecasted all of the worst east coast storms in my lifetime anyways.

    2. As Johnny Carson would say: “I did Not Know that.”

      Yes, I agree. He is excellent and really knows his material.

      OH Boy.

        1. I used to love when they called upon him in weather segments, just hearing his voice and his analysis, u knew there was a storm coming and the excitement would start to build. I can dub his voice in on the WPC write-up in my head.

  17. Direct hit would equal one of the biggest cyclones to hit the eastern seaboard in recent memory. Food of thought.

    1. Did you see the FIM 948mb Bomb?

      Think about that! 948 mb is equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane!!!!

      Imagine the wind along the coast.

  18. We’ve all gotten way more excited and worked up about storms with much less potential than this. I think part of it is we’ve been so numb to the piss poor performance of the models as of late we have a hard time taking any outcomes seriously. But this time, i think we really need to start to take notice. We are now less than 5 days away.

  19. Agree, models consensus has a storm, just different impact at this point. Everything points to a pretty significant storm.

    1. Agree, but question is, is it just temporary? Do we go back to the same ‘ol pattern? Western ridging, eastern trough. If so, any flow from the NW will be cold to cool for a long time into the spring due to the deep snowpack and frozen lakes in canada. Only way we moderate for all is from a SW flow.

  21. Im waiting to say much of anything of this till 3 or 4 days out
    For now.
    25% miss OTS
    40% brushing(light precipitation)
    35% bench mark storm
    I am just having that feeling that is going to go out to sea, i know that The canadian has been relativly consistant, i know the fact that the Gfs is moving closer. but both have had a slight shift further out to sea. If I am seeing it correctly

      1. no what i meant was that the canadian is moving a tad further away and the gfs is meeting up with it so both models are a tad further away.

    2. A wise choice to wait. By tonight and tomorrow morning we will be 4 days from the event. I will say, a brushing will give more than just light precip, it would give a moderate storm. 00Z canadian was so close it introduced some mix/rain along the south coast and cape. 06Z GFS did go a little further east from the 0Z run, but both 0Z and 06Z runs were much closer than any previous GFS run which were all OTS.

      00Z Canadian
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PT&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132

      00Z GFS
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gfs&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gfs&stn2=PT&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132

      06Z GFS
      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PT&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=120

        1. Look at the pressure all the models are spitting out, pretty insane that all of them have a sub 970.

    1. I’m with you Jon – for selfish reasons. I just don’t want to have our vacation cancelled for the second year in a row and this one looks as if it could create a problem along the coast. Even more, I’d like to see coastal residents not suffer damage as well. It’s been a tough go for them for a few years

  23. Did anyone catch Elliot Abrams post yesterday about the pattern change in the arctic ? If I recall correctly, the change occurred around the 18th. I also think he didnt mention it by name, but I’m pretty sure it was stratospheric warming.

    Stratospheric warming usually leads to blocking or amplified flow.

    that change would be 8 days prior to this strong storm.

    This leads me to lean towards a closer to the coast storm track.

    1. That, along with the Rex Block, causing much colder air to be sent down into the east and slowing the atmosphere down, are pointing to this thing getting us good.

  24. There is no lock yet especially 5days still out. The models will be showing everything from megastorm to nothing big. I honestly though really believe this is it for snow hit or no hit .

    1. You may be right about no more snow after next week, but given the conditions in eastern Canada and the type of winter they have had, it wouldn’t take much to get cold air into the eastern US again. It will take a while for that to change. I think we get our usual tease days of warmth, but nothing sustained for a while. As far as the storm goes, ur right, nothing is a lock as far as impacts to the area. What is a lock i think is that there will be a storm and a very big and powerful storm along the eastern seaboard come tuesday next week. Where it goes is the question.

    1. I bet they are thinking twice about issuing any stories about a possible storm since they were burned the last time. That storm was so promising then ended up trending way OTS. But at the same time, with all these signs, i cant see them not posting at least something.

  27. Just wanted to add to the discussion the fact that most of these models
    show a “closed” low at 500MB. For example, the CMC:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=QQ500&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=QQ500&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    The GFS:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=132&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_atlantic_132_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140321+06+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model

    Some negative tilt going on at higher levels.

    I’m just wondering IF combined with the Rex Block and the Stratospheric warming
    that this might lead to the SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN and Stalling, remaining in place
    for awhile. I know the models are still moving it off, BUT WHAT IF????

    2. Ugh, don’t even think it. I’ll need my Thursday morning vacation flight even more after dealing with Wednesday. 🙂

  30. GFS looks to be too far off shore down off of SC. Not that it couldn’t come up, but
    looks too far off to me.

          1. 3-6″ from a way out there storm is the take-away from this run. Won’t take much of a shift west.

      1. Looks like from that run anyways, a lot of it falls overnight tues through the pre-dawn to dawn hours wed morning

      2. Don’t forget, we wont be looking at marginal temps here. It will be COLD. Yes its a late march storm, but the air will be from early Feb.

  33. This GFS run and somewhat on the 06Z run, i noticed its intensifying the storm a little bit later than the other models.

  34. Trend lately feels like it has been GFS against all other models in this time frame. And more often than not, the GFS has won out.

    But something is definitely different with this one – so who knows!

  35. IIn Waltham and snowing ever so lightly…very light but you can see it falling. Happy Spring 🙂

  36. I’m going with OTS as I have so often this year. Of course I don’t know much but what my gut tells me. Right now it’s hungry! Enjoy Spring when it gets here.

    Cheerio, Merlin

  38. Agree John, you seem to think everyone is wishing this. I believe most are hoping it doesn’t hit. I could care less, I just love the tracking it.

            1. Absolutely I’m hoping for a miss. Who wants snow now the end of march, not many. As I said the other day it’s the topic of conversation that people have had it this winter there ready for it to be over and have it be warm again all the time.

  39. The parameters are certainly in place for a spring snow storm. There is sensible handling of moisture and both northern and southern stream energy. Northern Pacific energy and the rising heights in the west and plains all add up to a climatic set up that could support a spring storm with potential phasing with southern gulf energy. Plenty of cold to work with, though some discussions I have seen of 18:1 to 20:1 ratios won’t happen….I would lean towards a more southern scenario. GFS is interesting in that in Hyannis is pushing ~1.0 QPF, but 90 miles to the north and west in places like Lawrence, Worcester and Springfield ~.10-.20. That is some sharp cutoff and a sign that there is pressure to suppress.

    1. Its gone away from its 2 lows idea and now has one focused area of low pressure. Looks slightly more east but not by much

  44. for previous comment, I hope this thing hits, If it gives us a direct hit , could mean blizzard for most of eastern mass, track will determine everything.
    Though my latest thoughts
    40% out to sea
    40% brushing. light/moderate
    20% direct hit 🙁

  46. I have gas in the snow blower and I have to get it out one way or another. Draining it would be my choice but Mother Nature might have another solution.

  55. I have been seeing a trend with all guidance today. Complete phasing is taking place slightly later in the game as its at or just past the benchmark area. Seems to be causing a more OTS solution for whatever reason.

  56. Let’s keep something in mind: Today is Friday. This potential is for the middle of NEXT WEEK. Over-analysis will give you nothing but a headache. 😛

    I’m not stressing about the storm at all, but I MAY be stressing because I had Mercer beating Duke in my brother’s NCAA Basketball pool, UNTIL I CHANGED IT AT THE LAST SECOND! And what happens? Yup. Mercer. 14 over 3. I had it. I changed it. My son told me it was going to happen. I had a feeling it was going to happen. Our dear friend Emily told me it was going to happen. I listened…at first. 😛

      1. I picked Harvard. I got every game right yesterday except the Dayton one.

        It’s the Friday games that ALWAYS hurt me.

  57. GFS ensembles are split a 1/3 hit, 1/3 miss, 1/3 glancing blow. That should tell you not to read too much into one solution right now.

  58. Gil Simmons our meteorologist at WTNH said won’t know until later this weekend with the storm track will be since the storm has not formed. Its so large of a storm I don’t see how there is no impact to SNE.
    As For March Madness my final four teams are still there. I had 11 out of 16 yesterday. Not off to a good start today with Duke getting upset.

        1. Nice !! I like Louisville to go far as well. Both Fl. and Louisville had closer games yesterday than they were probably expecting.

          I’ve been so busy, I didnt pick.

  59. No ledge jumping for me. Figure we have about a one or two in ten chance at a direct hit. We’ll see!

  60. We are 5 days out and missing a monster storm on the models by a mere 150 miles. The energy for this system is still up near the north pole. It’s too early to be taking individual model runs verbatim. What we are currently seeing on the models will not end up the final solution. Remember what happened with the last few systems once we got within 3 days? Big shifts north and big shifts south. If it’s Sunday and this thing is being projected way OTS then it’s a totally different story. I’m not going to be drawing any conclusions until then either!

  61. None of the models made the NCAA model tournament. All banned.

    They are all in the NIT model tournament.

    Lets see

    (1) EURO vs (8) HM at accuweather

    (2) GFS vs. (7) UK Met

    (3) NAM vs. (6) Canadian

    (4) 0z runs vs 12z runs (in general)

    Play-in game …..

    (9) snow lovers vs. (9) ready for spring

  62. My question is at what point can we no longer use the line, “well, the storm is still several days away.” Will we still be saying the same thing sunday if there still isnt a definitive solution? At that point, it will only be 2 days away. At what point does a real call need to be made? One day away? 12 hours away? Most if not all guidance has snow potentially breaking out overnight Tuesday into Wed morning, that is 4 full days away, about 96 hours give or take. I expect a lot of uncertainty in the 5-10 day range, but i cant help but feel that inside of 5 days should be pretty solid.

  64. Regardless of what happens with the storm, don’t let the higher heights on the Canadian and Euro after it fool you too much. The upper air may warm somewhat, but the surface pattern so NOT SO FAST.

  66. Speaking of DT, excerpt from midday update…

    “What is happening is that all the weather models are seeing more and more energy coming in from the Pacific Ocean which knocks down the RIDGE over the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada. When this RIDGE gets knocked down …the flow becomes much more progressive so energy streaming east from the Rockies into the Plains and towards the Great Lakes acts as a force or KICKER and drives the Southeast US Low off the coast further to the east.”

    1. Ummm, what happened to the Rex Block? Wasn’t that supposed to allow the atmosphere to slow down? Is the pacific energy just blasting right through it?

      1. It’s nothing that’s happening currently. Just model forecasts.

        The storm doesn’t even exist at this time. 🙂

    2. There you go.

      It’s too early to give up yet, but every fiber of my body says this
      thing is going Out to F’n Sea. GBAGL!!!! (good-bye and good luck!)

      I’m with Retrac. I give it a 10-15% chance of nailing us.
      75% OTS and and 10-15% chance it is a Cow storm (Grazer).

      So what else did you expect?

      I’m not the slightest bit surprised.

      When the CMC is backing off, SEE YA!

      1. Its a great read. Tons of info. Not to mention fun to follow. Thanks everyone for the links, the discussion and your insight

  70. So TK…not to put you on the spot, but what is your feeling about the storm? You seemed to be onboard for some significant snowfall but are you leaning more towards OTS now or waiting to see more data?

    1. Well I have not made anything near a final call this far out, as you know, but I feel we will be impacted significantly. That is, enough snow to need to move around to clear things.

  71. No no no, no option for more data. Not getting out of it that easily 🙂 If this was all the data you had to go by, say you didnt have the benefit of seeing any more data but the event was still tues night/wed. With the data up till now, what is your feeling?

  72. Channel 7 for what it’s worth said earlier that the cape would see the most while north and west of Boston would just see a few flurries, don’t usually watch, but did catch it 🙂

    1. No he said it appears the cape will get a glancing blow but that it is a monster storm with winds potentially at hurricane strength. He concluded with the fact that there is a lot to work out over the weekend.

  75. This is a post from another meteorologist on the American Weather forum. He makes some good points:

    It’s not really clear why the models are “stretching” the flow so much — like they are trying to force progression into the flow.

    Be that as it may, the +NAO really offers a ton of argument for this to wind up left of the 12z operational blends.

    Also, for those riding the Euro, it’s wheel house time frame for our longitude is < D5 .. not actually ON D5. Would not be surprising to see tomorrow's position be different than these 00z and 12z OTS looks.

    Many examples of late west correction pummels in the annals folks. Shallow memories polluting threads … Fool's Day 1997, Boxing Day 2010, January 2005… All these majors really didn't get nailed until < 48 hours out. I think the best folks should do is take the ensemble means, and take note of the direction of the uncertainty/spread. If it shades west, the storm will end up there more than half the time.

  76. Whenever we have to bring up past times dates amounts in March or April, it’s usually bc it’s rare to happen, I believe we r seeing trends, and most especially north won’t see a flake. Who knows this thing could go poof like I suggested 2 days ago, we shall see 🙂

    1. It’s NOT going POOF. It may very well end up out in the ocean to the
      East, but it’s not going poof. 😆

        1. Sure, could very well be a miss. I’m with you on that.
          Still may change, but “could” be a miss. We shall see.

  78. Quick gripe from me about the weather. Days like today make me really dislike early spring in Boston. Talk about unproductive cold. Yuck! The wind goes right through you. There’s hardly any sun. It’s low 40s. If you threw in rain showers, which we’ll get tomorrow, this is the worst possible weather. And, we often get a lot of this in `spring.’ Charlie, I wish I could think spring, but I sincerely can’t when we get lots of days like today. The only other time of year it’s this dreary is mid to late November. But, at least then you have Thanksgiving and the holidays to look forward to. I do look forward to consistent 60s/70s weather – if we get that – but that isn’t likely until May. And then what happens is that we tend to overshoot. Remember late May last year when the thermometer hit 90-95 after a cool spring.

    1. Different perspectives I think. I love the wind. I sat out with the dog and just enjoyed it and its sound. Then I decided to clean outside windows. And things are changing if you look very closely. The trees are just starting to show the first buds. Spring bulbs are up or at least starting to stretch their arms. Not to mention the birds.

    2. Totally agree josh, it is tough, but it’s New England, bare ground,cool,damp days r the norm for the next 4-6 weeks, I think early April could be mild but we shall see 🙂

  79. Pete going out on the limb early

    @pbouchardon7: I know ur crushed. I know ur in agony..but it looks like we’ll MISS big storm Wed. Still a tempest offshore. #watchoutfish

    1. What is the matter with the man. Looks like…..what does that mean. Shouldn’t he have said we will definitely miss the storm. Argh….I thought I brought him up better. I see I have work to do

  80. Too bad this is probably going to miss us. Would have been a monster storm (and it still will be, just likely not over us). 12z ECMWF ensembles are almost entirely misses or light grazes. I wouldn’t shut the door on it yet but any significant impacts seem unlikely.

      1. Don’t engage? I’m not here for an argument, just happy in the latest trends, that’s all. We may still get a little snow, will see 🙂

    2. No need to get rude hadi, it’s obvious your mad bc of the trends, yesterday when u were blogging comparisons to historic snowstorm I wasn’t rude, why be rude? Good day hadi 🙂

      1. You need a career in talk radio or TV. It’s time to abandon the gardening tools. 🙂

  87. You should be an elevator operator Charlie. You are the best button pusher I have ever encountered. 😀

  88. So I have a general question…

    Yesterday, the majority of the models (especially ensembles) were showing a big hit. Today, the major models have trending east (not really OTS, but smaller impact). Because of that trend, we are now going to miss the storm (not my conclusion, just what I am seeing/hearing all over the place). My question is this: If tomorrow’s runs are trending back to a big hit, does that mean we are getting the storm again? 🙂

    I’m just curious. 😀

    1. Maybe. I think the blog goes by the “thrill of the chase” if you will…the excitement of potential weather events and sharing that with people who have the same interest and feel the same excitement. I think what is hard to understand for those who don’t feel that excitement is that watching is nearly as exciting as the event. And then if the event unfolds it is literally the icing on the cake.

      I don’t have the knowledge to read the maps etc but I sure have the appreciation for those here who do and for all of the theories they post

  90. It’s still too cold to snow people. We need to wait for a few more weeks for it to warm up enough to snow.

  91. Great answers. Thanks all. 😀

    My thoughts remain unchanged. There is a storm threat next week and a fairly wide cone of potential where it tracks. I’ll narrow it down when I’m comfortable doing so, as always. 🙂

    2. This blog is great, and I thank u for it, many times I’m really not trying to push buttons. I do enjoy it, for the education part as well as all the bloggers

      1. I poke at you in good fun.
        I’m used to your opinions. You don’t offend me if you say “snow is done”on March 1 every year. I get it. You work outside. You habitually look ahead. I’m used to it. I can’t speak for anyone else where. But watching the exchange between you and others can sure be entertaining. Did you ever consider trying out for the TV show Survivor? I think you’d be one of the most popular contestants. 😀

  93. My gut has been saying out to sea for a while now, no surprise 🙂 unless a good surprise if it decides to come out the way i wish it will. 😀

        1. For sure. 🙂

          Vicki, high tide times next Wednesday are around 8am and 8pm. They are slightly above avg tides, but not too high.

          1. Thanks Tom. I think that makes me feel better. If I send you the address will you please set up a barricade 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. Sounds good. I know last year didnt work out well at all.

              Even in a direct hit scenario next week, I think that because the low would be moving along, it wouldnt be a multiple flood tide event, but probably just one tide to get through. If the true bulk of the storm avoided early morning/early evening, then the tide being out would help as well.

  97. Does an OTS solution mean a clobbering or miss for the Mid-Atlantic states?

    Just wondering since I have most of my relatives down there.

      1. I think Bermuda would be on the warm side of the storm and at some point, would see a line of showers/storms come through with a shot of “cooler”, much drier air behind a cold frontal passage.

    2. I think the mid-Atlantic would be ok.

      If I am interpreting the models correctly at this early stage, the low really cranks once it has moved by the mid-atlantic region. So, I think they’d only be in stage for a light precip event (as of today).

      1. Thanks Tom…those states have enough trouble handling snow as it is, let alone a monster like this one is expected to be. 🙂

        1. Indeed … and they have had a lot of snow down there already this winter, (I think).

          I wonder how late the cherry blossoms will be this year in DC ?

  98. I looked at Pete’s evening blog and he is now making the final call as a miss for SNE due to NO BLOCKING in the Maritimes and Greenland. 🙁

    Pete didn’t mention this but not to mention +NAO to boot! 🙁

        1. Still off shore, but appears closer. Waiting for snow map
          to see how much of an impact it will be.

            1. This is a GORILLA and 1/2!!!!

              More impact than 18Z run for sure.
              Snow map just about ready.
              Showing much more snow than 18z

  101. Look out…considerable jog further west! That’s good for 6-10″ of wind driven snow in eastern MA and RI. 3-6″ further west. Start of a trend? Would not surprise me at all!

  102. TK, the picture of the tree you have as your cover image on the blog makes me want to see cherry blossoms nooooooow! 😀

    This dry air is KILLING me (but I am not complaining 😛 … too much…. hahaha)

  103. 0z Canadian west as well and a monster! 957 mb low just SE of the benchmark. Pretty much an all out blizzard for SE MA, Cape, and islands with 12″+. 6-12″ for the rest of eastern MA , RI, into eastern CT. Moderate snowstorm west of there.

  104. Keep that thing out to sea for my wife’s sake! Mid 70s and bright sun here in Haifa Israel. Feels much hotter after coming from the cold….tried to turn on the a/c in my hotel and was told they don’t turn it on until May….4 star hotel too….ughhh

  105. Here is the 0Z GFS Snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032200&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=120

    Now for the 06Z GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014032206&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=102

    Way out there to the East. Now snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032206&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=114

    Back and forth. Yes, no, maybe, no, yes, maybe, a little. Make up your mind why don’t you.

  106. 0Z Euro looks to be a swing and a miss via Instant Maps:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014032200&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=096

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014032200&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120

    Sure looks like a miss with 24 hour increments on Instant Maps, but it isn’t a miss
    at all. It’s not a total direct hit, kind of a pretty solid side swipe as Mark would call it.
    Have a look:

    Now other views:

    http://i.imgur.com/pqRSDiC.png?1

    http://i.imgur.com/PK5Zasn.png?1

    1. Look at the 500 mb closed low here. Now if that is “just” a bit more to the West, watch out!! Not out of the woods yet. Now trending back and forth, so what
      do you believe????

      http://i.imgur.com/FUSireG.png?1

      My gut still says OTS or light graze, but ANYTHING could happen here.

  107. Here’s the 0Z Canadian
    CMC-GDPS / Explorer
    958mb!!!

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=114&fixhh=1&hh=108

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=QQ500&hh=108&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=108&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    That is about 18 or 19 MM, very very close to yesterday’s 12Z run. This is NOT, NOT
    closer than the 12Z. It is “about” the same, if not a hair to the East. Looks impressive, but not for Boston. More to the SE. 18 or 19 mm is .7 to .75 inch QPF. Still a reasonable snow event, but NO monster, that’s for sure. Depending on ratio, it comes
    in about what GFS and Euro says. About 7 inches or so for Boston.

    Here is total precip qpf as snow. Most SE, especially Cape and Islands:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&hi=060&hf=120&lang=en&map=na

  108. Experimental FIM Model Fields
    Model: 15km FIM9_jet Area: CONUS 130 Date: 22 Mar 2014 – 00Z

    YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014032200/130/3hap_sfc_f102.png

    DOUBLE YIKES!!!!

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014032200/130/3hap_sfc_f108.png

    QPF map, 1-2 inches Boston area, 2-3 inches S&E!!!!!!!!

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014032200/130/totp_sfc_f120.png

    FIM was the most aggressive, most intense, wettest and farthest West run of them all.

    This run portrays perhaps an HISTORIC SPRING BLIZZARD!!!

    Now, let’s see IF it still looks this way with this mornings 12Z runs. 😈 :Evil:

      1. Yup! A true MONSTER!!

        That pressure is equivalent to a CAT 3 hurricane:

        Category Three Hurricane

        Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 111-129 miles per hour
        Damage Category: Extensive
        Approximate Pressure: 964-945 mb
        Approximate Storm Surge: 9-12 feet

        1. It won’t translate the same in a Winter Extra Tropical storm, just posting to show how powerful this storm
          could be.

  109. Good morning, off to foxboro/Walpole for a busy day. Judging by models it takes the brunt of the storm ots, good day everyone 🙂 get out and enjoy spring, some locales could hit 60 degrees today 🙂

  111. For a totally different perspective, the 06Z DGEX shows a MISS OTS:

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f102.gif

    NavGem shows a sideswipe:

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_thk_120.gif

    As does the JMA:

    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

    And finally the UKMET:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=120

    1. I’m feeling it a bit myself. Always starts as a minor scratchy throat a some sinus congestion. If need be, I can take the generic form of Claritin. The other allergy meds can trigger my heart irregularity. 😛

  113. Interesting note from NWS out of Upton, NY. Hazardous weather outlook up for areas I -91 corridor east including the Boston area.
    THIS IS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO FROM A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS STORMS THAT
    ENDED UP BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY CONFLUENCE AND STRONG HIGH
    PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. INSTEAD…IF THIS IS A COMPLETE
    MISS…IT WILL PROBABLY HINGE MORE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF
    PHASING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING FROM THE PAC NW REGION…SOME
    ENERGY DIVING DOWN FROM NW CANADA…AND POSSIBLY SOME ENERGY
    BREAKING OFF FROM THE POLAR VORTEX CENTERED EAST OF HUDSON BAY.

  114. Almost all overnight op runs show 6+ for Boston area, many with much more south. Has anyone seen the ensembles?

    2. I think a safe forecast for Boston would be 4-8 inches, more over cape, less north and west, still think snowfall will be in the 2-4 inch range for Boston, 4-8 south and east, 1-3 inches north and west, we shall see 😉

    1. Thanks, OS. I think we are in for some impact, at least over 3 inches. I could see more BOS-PVD corridor.

  117. Old Salty I just realized the discussion from Upton, NY was the same as yesterday afternoon’s. I wish they updated there discussion. The only thing was changed was to include parts of there forecast area in hazardous weather outlook saying a shift of less than 100 miles will make a big difference.

    1. All of the NWS offices do that. I hate it when they do an update and keep
      most of the OLD discussion in there. It’s hilarious when WE have viewed new data and know the forecast has shifted and read their discussion with the OLD
      forecast in there. HILARIOUS!!! 😆

  118. From Taunton NWS:

    TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY…
    CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR AT
    LEAST SE NEW ENG LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. WE EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE REGION…BUT GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS STORM TRACK OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WILL LIKELY BE FELT ACROSS SE MA AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED WHERE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SE MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS. HOWEVER…WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT AND ANY CHANGE IN THE CURRENT STORM TRACK WILL IMPACT WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS.

      1. I posted it for entertainment value. Look, there is a “chance” that it could be correct, but clearly it is Premature to put something like that out there at this time.

        1. They have nearly 50,000 followers. Talk about gross incompetence spreading the the masses…sure it could happen, but 9/10 people who read that won’t even read the narrative. They will look at the picture and take it verbatim.

          1. That is the Danger in this kind of stuff.

            It is, however, fun for us to take a peek at it. 😆

  120. A little something else, to get the NAM invloved:

    Here is the 06Z GFS at 84 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140322+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    06Z NAM at 84 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140322+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    Sure looks like the NAM is going to do it’s thing and throw something different at us.

    Can’t wait to see 12Z runs. 😆

  123. Latest projection from the WPC:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg

    Some discussion from the WPC:

    BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THE BENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBING OCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THE
    CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
    SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE. IF THE BOMBING IS LATER/FARTHER NORTHEAST, EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUFFER THE WORST EFFECTS.

    If this happens, I guess it is SAFE to call it a BOMB! 😆

    1. That low is going to bomb. It’s just a question of where and when.

      This is destined to be a ferocious March cyclone whether it heavily impacts the East Coast or not. It’s why it’s never a good idea to dismiss it this many days in advance.

  124. Important to keep in mind that the GFS is notoriously too far SE on these types of storm forecasts. Not saying it will miss badly on this one, but just something to factor in if you are weighing models this far out.

  125. Updating…. (don’t get too excited, not too much to say on midweek yet – that will come tomorrow). 😀

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