Beast To The East

376 Comments

7:24AM

Short update this morning due to time constraints on my agenda today. Apologies!

High pressure holds for cold and dry weather today but clouds do start to show up from the developing storm to the south as described in the previous blog post. There is not a whole lot of change to the outlook. This beast of a storm will pass too far to the east of southeastern New England for a full major impact, but Cape Cod, sticking out into the ocean and closer to the storm, will have the most impact in terms of snow and especially wind. The time frame is generally during the day Wednesday for the wind and the first half to 2/3 of Wednesday for the snow. Again, a subtle shift one way or another makes a big difference, so watch for updates. Also, still expecting some coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday, especially north-facing shores.

Fair weather returns Thursday, not as cold. Much milder Friday but with clouds and an eventual shower risk due to an approaching cold front. This front hangs up in the region for cooler weather and unsettled weather for at least part of the coming weekend before fair weather returns for the start of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing late, heaviest Cape Cod and southeastern MA, may barely reach the distant NW suburbs of Boston and interior southern NH by morning. Lows around 20. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, possibly heavy for a time near the coasts of NH and MA and especially Cape Cod and Nantucket, and light to moderate elsewhere, tapering off west to east midday and afternoon. Snowfall estimate: Coating to 1 inch far northwestern suburbs of  Boston and interior southern NH, 1-3 inches east central and northeastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH, 2-4 inchest Cape Ann and North Shore MA, 3-6 most of  southeastern MA, and 6-12 inches Cape Cod and Islands. Will change with any shifts in storm track! Highs around 30. Wind N 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH gusting 45-55 MPH coastal areas especially Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY:  Clearing. Low 35. High 50.

376 thoughts on “Beast To The East”

  2. Perhaps I’m wrong, but in reading some of the comments on the last blog, I sense disappointment in this storm.

    There’s an opportunity here to watch an incredible deepening of a storm within such a short time frame, that will probably yield some amazing satellite pictures and Canadian radar shots.

    I guess I hope that the weather fanatic in all of us takes some time to enjoy whats about to transpire just south and east of us.

    And I am very thankful that this powerhouse atmospheric event is not unleashing its direct fury on all of us.

    2. Unless the snow lovers receive 1 ft they will be disappointed tom, 1-3 inches isn’t enough in late March 🙂

  4. Tom,
    I will admit I am somewhat disappointed. As a weather enthusiast I agree with you that it is an incredible opportunity to watch a deepening storm. My disappointment is I don’t want to watch the storm on my computer. I love to be in the elements of giant storm, seeing it first hand. I think most weather enthusiasts like to be in the action. Before I get ripped I understand that these storms cause damage and I don’t like to see loss of life or property. But, these storms are coming no matter what we all want I like to be in them when they are here.

  5. Has anyone compared latest radar with most recent NAM run? Looks like the blog off the NC Coast on the nam is actually a lot more north and west.

    1. If I am reading it correctly the precip down in the mid atlantic should start pulling west around 6pm this evening.

  6. Storm hasn’t happened yet. Nothing to be disappointed or not disappointed in. And even after, I’m sure we will be just fine. 🙂

  7. I had to stop to think about how both Tom’s and Haterain’s comments can resonate with me. I am grateful that something of this magnitude is not making a direct hit because of the potential damage it could cause. That said, there is a part of me that feels as if we missed something that would have been a remarkable experience (from a weather lovers perspective). All in all, Tom’s perspective IMHO is that no matter the outcome, there is something very valuable and fascinating from a weather standpoint. It would be a shame to let disappointment that it didn’t work one way to interfere with the opportunity to experience/watch the actual outcome.

    1. I understand that. It’s like with a Hurricane. I don’t want to see the damage
      and the disruption to people’s lives, but at the same time I want to witness
      the excitement of the event. So, in that sense, yes, I am disappointed.
      I would have loved to perhaps witness an historic event. Now that it is not
      going to happen, then I’d just as soon see NO snow at all. What’s the point?
      1-3 inches of snow now is a total waste and a nuisance. 😈

    2. I completely agree and I don’t disagree with Tom. If it misses us then I will take the opportunity to watch it on my computer, but I would be lying if I tried to say I wasn’t disappointed. I am disappointed whenever we miss a storm. I am a storm nut.

    3. Hi, Vicki – I agree with you and Tom and Haterain’s comments. I don’t like seeing people and animals getting hurt or any damage done with any storm- but at the same time I love the excitement of a big storm. I don’t really want this storm to be bad over New England (‘though I think the Maritimes are going to get hit) but it would be exciting to see some snow and wind from this storm and then move on quickly to Spring! Also, whatever happens, it will be interesting to see the satellite loops and radars of this storm when it really gets going. In any case, I am definitely looking forward to warmer weather and Spring.

  8. im kind of disapointed but i kind of had that guy feeling this entire time that it was out to sea

  10. Thanks, TK!

    We now have a new member to our family – we adopted an adorable kitty a few days ago. She is supposedly about 3 yrs. old but we think she is younger. She is an active and loveable girl and we named her Princess. Now our home is complete – it was so empty without a cat!

  11. What is interesting is that the NWS still has low confidence at this late stage. The battle of the Euro vs. GFS is still ongoing so I guess there is still some wiggle room left for a moderate snowfall into the Boston-Providence corridor. ❓

    The 6 & 11 pm newscasts could still have some wx interest yet outside SE MA & the Cape. We will see. If not, then so be it.

    1. I am also very curious about the low confidence. If you didn’t know any better, u would think with the way they were talking, this storm is 3 or 4 days away with a lot of details still to iron out.

  12. On David epsteins blog he said boston is right on the edge of nothing to barely plowable. Said should start in boston on the pre hrs before dawn and expects it to be a quick mover heading out in the morning but cape could snow all day. He expects big updates after 3 and also suspects some lowering amounts from the tv outlets. This guy is good.

    1. John,

      I always liked him. What you just posted sounds very reasonable to me.

      When he said updates around 3PM, that SCREAMS Euro. 😆

    1. Ok, now u have my attention coastal. IF that snow is hitting the ground in VA, that was not forecast by anyone, even big joe himself

            1. I think you were concentrating on the MISS up here and didn’t even see the snow down there. 😀

        3. GFS, euro, CMC, et. all did not have this accumulation on snow way into VA. I think the NAM’s got this one pegged.

      2. From Blacksburg, VA NWS office about 1-1/2 hours ago:

        “.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
        AS OF 530 AM EDT TUESDAY…

        INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED FORECAST WITH MORE SNOW THAN EARLIER
        EXPECTED AS ALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF IN RESPONSE TO
        DIGGING NW FLOW SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER PVA/NEGATIVE TILT OF
        SYSTEM INTO THE CWA THAN EARLIER INDICATED. AFTER COORDINATION
        WITH WPC/WWD AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES…HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS
        TOWARD MARGINAL 4 INCH WARNING CRITERIA FROM ROA NORTHEASTWARD
        TOWARD LEXINGTON/AMHERST. HAVE INCLUDED ALL OTHER REMAINING VA
        COUNTIES IN AN ADVISORY. NORTHWEST NC COUNTIES AND EASTERN WV
        COUNTIES ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC…WITH WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
        POSSIBLE IN WESTERN GREENBRIER FROM LATER UPSLOPE POTENTIAL. FEEL
        THAT NW NC COUNTIES WILL REMAIN JUST AT OR BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
        AS UPSLOPE WILL BE OF LESS DURATION…SO WILL STICK WITH AN
        ADVISORY FOR NOW.”

        Don’t know if that really means anything for us or not, but it ties in with what coastal was speaking about…

        1. Thank you. Most interesting, especially:

          DIGGING NW FLOW SHORT WAVE AND STRONGER PVA/NEGATIVE TILT OF
          SYSTEM INTO THE CWA THAN EARLIER INDICATED.

  14. Ace and Coastal…

    I’m with you. I’ll still be watching. Wishing and hoping. But most likely to no avail.

  15. Interested to to see if the 12Z NAM continues its thinking as well as other shorter range higher res models. Anyone know what the latest RPM is showing?

  16. Watch for pressure falls along cape hatteras. Looks like precip starting to cluster around there and fill in to the west. Southern energy appears to be going straight east of FL and GA. I wonder when this starts to turn north. What are the chances of that not even happening? That would change this entire thing.

  19. Gosh, maybe im just not good at analyzing the satellite imagery, but man, it does not look like there’s any phasing between the southern and northern streams whatsoever.

  21. I think we can kiss any sustained warmth goodbye through April. If the NAO goes neg, it would be a dreary raw month, aka typical NE spring

    1. why do you think i totally dispise spring… Everyone is like YES spring and I am great spring when is memorial day?

      2. I’m with you, Matt. Of the four seasons, Spring is my least favorite. I’d rather go straight to the good stuff (warmth!).

        But every season has its place!

  23. Wow! It already has it cutting off waaaay sooner than before. Will this thing tilt neg and come back in?

    2. Amazing.

      One thing I must point out. Perhaps it is just I.
      BUT this thing looks OH SO MUCH STRONGER MUCH SOONER.
      No?

      What a MONSTER!

  25. I look at it like, a storm like that is bad for everyone but the very few,economy,and for the average human. Glad we r missing it plus we’ve seen big storms before, don’t worry snow lovers you will get another chance next yr, I’ll be rooting for it in dec/jan, good day everyone 🙂

  26. Bah, not 100% done, but snowmap not nearly as impressive as runs since 18Z yesterday. Boston on the edge now of nothing to an inch or 2. Even Cape gets 6″ tops. We’ll keep watching 🙂

  27. That slight shift though seems to have taken parts of Nova Scotia out of the heaviest stuff and plants it directly into far eastern ME.

  28. Yup, the Mets get us all excited about Spring and the warmth that is coming. The forecast showers for today become those 4-5 drizzle, cold and dank days almost always on the weekend. Guess I’d rather the snow in early spring. Happy Spring?

    1. They do the same thing with spring warmth as they do with winter storms. Jump the gun waaay before anything is even close to being certain.

  29. I still dont think that will be the final call. This storm will surprise some one way or another.

  30. I’ll be rooting for a hurricane this year, I love tracking hurricanes during busy seasons, unfortunately here our hurricane season is basically Aug/Sept, we are due for one I would think. I know everyone remembers different hurricanes on how bad it was at there location, bob went wide right, and Gloria to me was the last real hurricane, we were on the right side (windy side) and it passed only 60-75 miles west of the area, we didn’t have electricity, it was this storm I believe that continued my interest in weather 🙂

    1. Isn’t that an amazingly SHARP cut off on the snow?

      ZERO at Boston’s edge to near a foot on the outer Cape.

      Boston could easily end up with ZILCH for this.
      Certainly a possibility.

      This is pretty well etched in STONE.

      There always “could” be a surprise, but I HIGHLY DOUBT IT.

      It is cooked. Dinner is served on the FISH and residents of far Down East maine and new Brunswick. 😀

        1. Thanks TK. What amazes me, is majority of the winter was with a positive NAO and it was that cold

  33. For those looking forward to the weekend: That Sunday forecast is low confidence. May end up nicer but still cool. Saturday…eh.

  34. Don’t read too much into minute details on radar way down the coast. This thing has massive evolution to undergo during the next 30 hours. Watch the show via satellite. 🙂

    2. Yes I do. Excellent chance at NOTHING at all.
      Could it still snow 1-3 inches, sure, but I don’t think so.

      We shall see.

      1. I would like to see some snow one last time. I think if NWS was very certain on 3-4″ for boston, some sort of hazardous weather outlook or winter weather advisory would be issued. So far, i havent seen either.

        1. Winter storm watches still in effect over plymouth and bristol counties. I expect those to be either downgraded or just removed all together.

      1. My house alarm/ burgler alarm. We get texts for any kind of severe weather in are area that would affect us.

  41. GFS weakens the storm as it comes into Nova Scotia. Much less snow than previous runs up there.

  42. I know I am looking for things, but take a look at this visible satellite loop and pay particularly close attention to the last couple of frames. Does it not look like a blob
    is moving NORTHWARD?

    ????????????????????????????????

    I dunno

  43. Ch 5 sticking with snow in boston 2-4 inches and thats updated. I dont know
    its tough for me to go against 5 but im curious as to what Harvey will say. Maybe it
    won’t be snowless oldsalty in Boston, got me.

  45. Euro now really one of the only holdouts for snow in boston. Will this run offer up something different? Who knows. I’m about done trying to will this thing up here.

  46. Precip into the mid-atlantic still moving northward but not making much progress. Seems to be bumping into some dry air. I suspect some of that isnt even reaching the ground. Its not all that impressive.

  47. Thanks for the good wishes on our new cat.

    Going by my “gut feeling” – no models or mets. And of course, I could be totally wrong. But to me the sky looks weird. Not a winter or spring sky – kind of a strange light to it. I feel we are going to get something out of it. Maybe just a little (or lot) of snow or not. When I say “we” I mean Boston west and north – undoubtedly the Cape and South coast will get more of something – I think! Anyway, w/the few mild days we have had I have not smelled or sensed spring at all. Today is cold and raw. I think TK said April will start out cool. That sounds right to me – I don’t see any high 60’s or 70’s anytime soon. I have seen a few robins and for the first time since we moved to Sudbury for the past several days there have been a flock of juncos in our yard. It’s true – you can ask our kitty! 🙂

    1. My posting above might be confusing. My “gut feeling” is that the Boston area and a little to the west and north will get some snow – a few inches, anyway. And I think we will see some wind, too. I don’t like making definite forecasts – this is just how I feel. I’m probably totally wrong – just wanted to give an opinion! 🙂

      1. Yup. Whats interesting is theres very little clustering of the low while its off the coast of NC/VA but regardless of where it is at that point, the clustering is still very tight at a position E of the benchmark. Remarkable.

        1. When it all comes together, the echoes will translate
          East well off shore. Doesn’t matter how they look or how they are moving now. 😀

  52. Its hard to decipher the translation of the precip area vs. the counterclockwise movement within the precip area.

    I know that northward movement within the precip area sometimes fools me because I dont do a good job watching how the whole batch itself is moving.

    If we look at the Virginia Beach, VA radar, it may appear the precip is moving north, but, because the whole batch of precip is translating east northeastward, it doesnt end up getting very far north.

  54. Euro even further east, that run gives boston barely an inch. Even the cape is 5 maybe 6″

  55. The nail was already in the coffin, the euro just wiggled it around to make sure it was still there. I think we need a break from all this, lol

  56. Ok let’s try something.

    Here is the Euro depiction for 18Z or just about NOW:

    http://i.imgur.com/MyoT268.png?1

    Does this correspond to current radar and surface map?

    If so, it is verifying, if NOT, NOT verifying.

    So what do we have now?

    Radar:

    http://i.imgur.com/MyoT268.png?1

    Not sure that fits

    Satellite:

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=irbw&size=small&endDate=20140325&endTime=-1&duration=12

    That “appears” to fit

    Surface:

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

    You be the judge???

    2. It really seems to MISS all of that precip in NC and VA. That “should” have appeared on the 6 hour map as 6 hour total precip. It is NOT there.
      Not sure what it means. Probably nothing.

  58. The cluster of precip in NC and VA, even on satellite, appear to be staying separate from the explosion of clouds well to the east. I dont see any evidence of phasing. That explosion is waaaay out there to the east already. I still have a hard time imagining how this all comes together to even come close enough to give the Cape a few inches of snow let along give Nova Scotia 2 feet

  59. Much Eastward movement in these echoes. Looks so different with this radar display.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MHX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=0&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=0&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

    2. Oldsalty still sticking w that boston snowless call. I’m torn. If I had to guess now I would say 4 for boston. Just a guess. Really want to see Harvey tonight because be is usually spot on.

  61. I wonder if everyone gets a vacuum and turn it on and maybe u guys can suck the storm up here lol 🙂 joking

  62. On the water vapor loop and satellite it doesn’t look like the 2 streams are even close. Lots of dry air being injected into the system

    1. Agree 🙂 Winter Storm Watches will likely come down for Plymouth and Bristol counties as well

  66. From BigJoe, its snowing in Baltimore…with a SE wind direction. Thats kinda interesting. Gotta be significant on some level right?

  67. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h
    So how many times does one see it snowing in Baltimore with a SOUTHEAST WIND.. ever , yet alone March 25

  68. How about the rain the euro is showing for Sat/Sunday. Over 2 inches, still think it’s a beautiful weekend 🙂

    1. Beats snow any day…and I expect it to rain in the Spring. Don’t have to shovel it, don’t have to roof rake it, and it cleans the road salt away.

      2. Too bad you can’t walk outside without an umbrella. That’s my only complaint. Oh, and mud. But that comes with the snow as well, I suppose.

        I actually LOVE summer rain. But in the spring? Fuggedaboutit.

    2. Most likely due to the winds and reduced vis. Snow totals will not be impressive if we’re going by most if not all today’s guidance.

  70. Pattern looks very active according to the euro. Lots of rain opportunities the next 10 days starting saturday.

  71. Snow now pivoting into southern NJ. I dont see too much of an easterly component to the radar up there yet.

  72. Not a flake of snow offered outside of the cape cod canal on the 18Z NAM. 3 lower cape to 6″ very outer cape/nantucket. Thats all folks.

  73. Very happy with forecast so far. Will barely need to tweak #’s to the lower sides of the ranges. Sharp cutoff NW.

    The next 24 hours should produce one of the most spectacular satellite loops in a long while. Enjoy it.

    1. So, are you still thinking 3-6 down this way? Trying to figure out the chances of my boys school being canceled.

      1. Superintendents job has become easy, just cancel it, if nothing happens, he can just say safety 1st 🙂

    1. It never does, but it looks like it’s digging further east and looks to me like we could avoid this all together, crazy stuff 🙂

  77. This afternoon’s 6-10/8-14 day CPC outlook continues to show the-same-old-same-old well below normal temps with above normal precip through early April.

    My hope is that by Marathon Monday (April 21) the pattern will change for good so that the spectators will be able to truly enjoy the day weatherwise w/o heavy coats. We will see. 😉

      1. Supposed to be playing golf at the Foxwoods/Mohegan Sun golf courses for my bachelor party weekend of April 12th. Either we’ll be playing in jackets and gloves or the course might not even be open yet! Hate spring

    1. The pressure contours and satellite match up well, but the NAM initialization? NOPE. Has low east.

      1. Theres a serious arctic energy being injected into this storm. Precip blossoming up and down the coast. Best dynamics, for now, are along the coast and NOT with the low to the east. I think this is what Bastardi has been getting at for a while now.

        1. That was no eye. Just a hole in the clouds several hundred miles away from where the new center will be.

  83. I’m really gonna enjoy this one just watching it bomb out and not have to do any clean up, these r the best especially when we’ve had our share of snow this past winter 🙂

    1. Don’t stand under the low center on a ship. Your hair might stick up due to the extremely low pressure.

    1. Rumors only. The water temp is WAY too cold out there. This is strictly a cold core system.

  87. Northward movement on radar explanation. This is an evolving system, huge in size. The atmosphere is in the process of merging several twists and turns. That northward movement is normal as the system starts to expand and the low to the west starts to pivot around before being devoured by the new storm center. Compare it to the satellite loop of the same area and watch the entire system in its infancy (as of 6PM).

      1. 1-2 is possible, but current trends make me lean toward the lower end of that very tiny scale.

  88. TK, any chance we see some snow on Sunday or are you thinking way too warm? 18z GFS shows a region wide 2-4″ but everything else says all rain, which would seem more likely.

    By the way, regardless of how this storm tonight plays out, you did a great job catching the potential for this from so many days out. It must have been 10 days or so ago that you identified this time as the time to watch for a storm. Great pattern recognition.

    2. Thanks buddy!

      Regarding Sunday, I think it’s going to be very chilly at the surface but too warm alot. But still several days out so we’ll see how it evolves. It’s even possible that everything shifts offshore and we clear earlier than my current forecast indicates.

  89. imagine if that middle low could gets its act togeather instead of the one to the far east that would change alot

      1. Thanks.

        I cant recall many storms where I was somewhat concerned about the wind, while having a good chance at not seeing a lot of precip.

        1. Well, make that cold season storms. Many a tropical system has the winds, but not much rain in SE Mass.

          2. Wind is something we havent had to deal with all winter. This is the first time we have had a really tightly wound system come close enough to cause high winds. Imagine if there were a strong H to the north, imagine the winds generated from that pressure gradient!

    1. I have four(4) radar displays running at once.

      East Coast Mosiac
      Dover DE
      NYC
      Taunton

      Snow is showing on Taunton Radar now.

        1. We’ve seen that several times this winter in transfer/merge set-ups. This one is a bit more pronounced.

  96. So my 2yo son is having his tonsils and adenoids removed tomorrow. We tried so hard to keep him healthy for the last two weeks to ensure this procedure happens. So what does he do today………… He splits his forehead open at preschool. After 8 stitches and a really cool ambulance ride later he is home safe and sound. The doctors said the procedure is still on. Thank goodness!

    13. Coastal, my best wishes for your son, and hope for a speedy recovery! Will keep you all in my thoughts.

  99. So Pete is saying this storm is non existent snow wise for most. Also saying that a storm of this magnitude will shakeup the current pattern.

        1. Actually that’s not correct. Boston’s AVERAGE high temps for March start lower 40s and end lower50s. Early April’s average high is in the lower 50s. Below normal for this time of year would be 30s and 40s, not 40s and 50s.

  102. I wonder if Marshfield may get a delay tomorrow, Scituate too and not fully related to snow.

    High tide is around 7:30-8am, around the time busses are picking students up. There is a small amt of bus routes that, in some way, have to go by the sea walls.

    While its not a due onshore wind, parts of Marshfield do face the ocean even looking off to the NNW. If the wind is sustained 25-30, gusting to 45, I’d think thats going to impact some of those coastal bus routes.

  104. Yes, this type of pattern indeed produces flaky opportunities in April, regardless of what anybody “wants”.

  105. Tomorrow’s going to be one of those great Spring days where at 1pm…..

    It’ll be sunny and 35F in Burlington, VT and about 26F with snow on Nantucket.

        1. Its the winter that just keeps on keeping on :). But just think…it could end with a big power outage. Its like the icing on the cake …….. No?

    1. Oh that’s right! I forgot that Winter ends on February 1 around here.

      First day of Summer is next week, right? I need new swim trunks… 😀

      1. I have pics of the daffodils in my yard just sticking their heads above the foot of snow we had. Nowwwwww wanna talk about the fact that back in the cold era…before climate change…that is when they bloomed. See how cleverly I snuck that in….bet you didnt notice. 😉

    2. And 4 weeks later it was 90F because I graduated HS that year and I remember it was a very warm day for late May.

    3. Nice link. One of the storms was on my brothers bday and the other on my cousins. Makes them easy for me to remember. Thanks TK

  108. Another late snow event comes to mind. I was not alive for this one May 9, 1977. The latest date I believe Boston recorded snowfall with .5 inches. Some spots in SNE had quite a dumping of snow.

  109. Watching the 0z NAM and I’ll guess its wind gust predictions are overamped like its precip amts usually are. Well, I hope they are overamped, cause its got 50 mph wind gusts to Boston, 60 on the south shore and 70 mph gusts for the outer Cape. It also has 80 and 90 mph winds out east of New England.

  110. Don’t want to see wind gusts that high because not only will there be power issues but possible property damage.
    Most of SNE may miss out on the accumulating snow but were not going to miss out on the wind.

  111. Don’t kid yourselfs April snow is rare around here, just saying, let’s not pretend like it happens on a daily occurrence. We can go many many yrs and even a decade without seeing any meaningful snow, I’d put your money on no snow, goodnight 🙂

    1. Nobody was pretending it is a daily occurrence. Ignorant statement.

      I’ve been a meteorologist for nearly a quarter century. I think I know how rare big April snow is. And trust me, most weather enthusiasts know how rare it is too.

      What I was saying earlier was the type of pattern we are in is the type that produces snow threats a little more than the type we were in the last couple years. Does that mean it’s going to snow 100% for sure in April? I have no idea yet, and neither do you.

      2. I see what your saying tk, but I get frustrated when every single year we talk about how we can snow in April, I remember last yr in late march the same discussion, and we got the same result zero snow in April, I’m sorry tk if it came off ignorant, didn’t mean it to be 🙂

  112. I was just going to say – if ever we were in a favorable pattern for late season snow, this has GOT to be it. Other than the predominant dry part of the pattern, the cold has really persisted.

    1. I’ve lived here since 2003. I’m not sure I’ve seen April snow yet? (Maybe I have…but some of my college days are little…hazy.)

      That must mean we are due for some, right?? 😀

      1. If the beast moving just outside the area doesn’t tell us we’re in a pattern that produces Spring snow, nothing will. 🙂

        Boston does indeed average measurable snow in April, granted it’s only 0.3 inch.

        Boston has recorded measurable snow in April 57 different years since the start of record keeping, making it about 45% of Aprils that contain measurable snow. Maybe it’s not so rare after all.

          1. I know that. I was referring to measurable snow at Boston, not big storms. Not sure why you are stuck on that. And your point was not that 40 out of 57 were under 1 inch. This was the first time you brought that up. Nice try, again. 🙂

            Just admit that you lost the argument that snow in April is rare.

            The only place you will be somewhat correct about that is the last 10 years, where there have been lots of zero snow Aprils.

  113. Charlie I have to hand it to you, you are persistent. You continually try to get under people’s skin. You are a one trick pony, but you keep it interesting.

    1. No work today, took the day off due to wind and cold and light snow, lightly snowing here now, a very light coating 😉

  120. No work today, took the day off due to wind and cold and light snow, lightly snowing here now, a very light coating 🙂

  121. Morning. Raging Blizzard here! NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Very light snow falling and it is even WINDY here.

    Latest Obs from Chatham. Heavy Snow, vis .25 miles.

    I saw wind gusting to 59 mph on one of the Islands.

        1. I was going to post something along those lines.

          Despite what the Euro was originally saying for this
          current storm, the GFS had it pegged all along. It never
          bought into any heavy snow here, never.

          Quite impressive actually.

          btw, I never said I was buying the Euro for Sunday, just
          reporting what it showed. 😆

          What a close call for today. Extremely sharp cut off to snow.

  123. What an ugly forecast from the euro starting late Saturday through Tuesday. Not sure hoe anyone can be excited for that.

      1. In the 96-120 hour range GFS had an 8-10″ snowfall on the cape with a 966mb low passing S and E of the benchmark. The continued 100 to 150 mile westward bias that has showed itself numerous times, but not every time, in the ECMWF since August, existed with this storm.

        1. That’s correct but just yesterday and Monday it had very little snow for them. I guess they all have faults.

          1. 3/25 12z GFS showed a 7-8″ snowfall for the cape and the islands. I don’t mean to be argumentative, but my interpretation of the GFS output obviously varies from yours.

    2. You’re right Hadi, gfs was for the most part an eastern outlier for many runs showing virtually no snow even on the cape. Euro was the westernmost outlier. Each model showed their bias. We ended up being right in the middle. Id say, gfs and euro are a good team. Blend them together equally and 9/10 times its what will happen.

  126. Snow has developed a bit, guessing visibility at around 1.5 to 2 miles. The ground is dusted.

    The winds are howling. My recycle bin lasted about 2 minutes, then had to take it back in for next week.

  130. TK, is it safe to say that in the progressive pattern we’ve had most of the winter its no coincidence the gfs was the winner? Euro did not handle progression well and liked to overamplify things, but it seems to historically shine in blocking patterns which we did not have much of this winter

    1. That could be. But the ECMWF was upgraded and I think that had something to do with it too.

      I’m not expert there, just a guess.

    1. There was a little very light snow earlier, now I can’t see any.
      Perhaps there are occasional lonely snow flakes but I can’t see them. 😆

  132. Tk some models r showing 60 degrees for fri/sat, would u concur? Or r u still thinking only 50 degrees for highs? Thank u in advance 🙂

    1. I went 60 Friday, 50 Saturday. I think we get enough wind from the south Friday to do it except on the South Coast.

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