You Wanted Spring

135 Comments

7:23AM

The bombing-out storm that sideswiped southern New England with big wind and some Cape Cod and southeastern MA snow is now gone, and in settles a more typical Spring pattern. Spring! Yay! Right? Not so fast. You  may have wished for Spring, but the collective annual “forgot this is what spring in New England is like” syndrome suffered by the collective population is about to be cured by the reality of nature. Ah, nothing like a dose of natural medicine to shock you back into sense right? Here are a few things to keep in mind. The air aloft in the Spring can be pretty cold, moreso than in the Autumn. The water of the Atlantic is just weeks beyond its coldest of the season. The pattern of 2 years ago (70s and 80s most of March) was a major anomaly. Now, onto the unsettled forecast.

There is only 1 day of the next 7 that present an opportunity for fair weather start to finish. That day is today. After that a cold front, low pressure area, and stubbornly slow upper level flow will combine to keep southeastern New England on the cloudier, cooler, wetter side for many of the days following.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny but clouds increasing later in the day. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s except upper 40s south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain except sleet/snow mix possible inland. Temperatures in the 30s.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 30.  High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Low 38. High 46.

135 thoughts on “You Wanted Spring”

    1. Way ate your thoughts on chances of snow and mix for Sunday? Everyone of the TV mets seem to be on the rain wagon 100 percent,

  5. Thanks TK !

    Dont know if anyone mentioned this previously …..

    For TV Broadcasters, hands down winner 1-2 days before the storm on snowfall projections was Pete. He had the most suppressed snowfall projections and was far and away the most accurate 36-48 hrs out.

    1. Yes Tom I agree. When Harvey and Barry eventually retire, Pete will be the one to go to for the most accurate forecasts. I have to take my hat off to him.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Coastal – glad to hear your son is better.

    Hadi and North – have a safe trip and have a great time.

    2. Thanks Rainshine. Only going to NYC for the day tomorrow on business. Wish it was Florida or somewhere warm!

      1. North, sorry about that – wish you were going to Florida or somewhere nice and warm, too. Nonetheless, have a safe trip and enjoy yourself. We haven’t traveled in a long time so even if we got a chance to go to NYC it would be a big deal for us! 🙂

  8. Is Saturday a washout? When do you expect the rain to begin? I have a cord plus I still need to split and stack.

  9. I find it interesting that the same PV that “protects” us from snowstorms doesn’t do the same with rainstorms. All models have the storm at the benchmark. Sunday’s forecast is just plain awful with tons of rain…2-3 inches worth.

    UGH!! 🙁

  10. Thats alright ….. if there’s low pressure south of New England, that has to translate to high pressure to our north……. That, in turn, presents sunshine for eastern Canada and a chance for them to moderate, which starts to melt all of the snow up there …. I’m willing to go through gray chill down here to moderate a cold source to our north.

  11. Although the upcoming weather WILL be miserable, it don’t think it will snow.
    Why? Well because I love snow and the Weather Gods will DENY me that snow.
    Therefore No Worries. 👿 👿

    1. I guess I will spend the weekend putting my snow shovel away for the season. I was really hoping for one final snow…even just a few precious inches. 🙁

      1. Don’t go by me. 😆

        The pattern “could” very well deliver another snow event.
        I’m just not banking on it is all.

  12. Question for TK and/or JMA

    Re: This beast of a storm yesterday

    Although the 500MB pattern was fantastic for explosive development. South to North Winds and then cutoff flow. The flow above at 300 and 200 MB was WSW to ENE coming around to SW to NE, but NEVER enough to get the storm up here.

    The effective track of the surface low was like ENE, keeping it S&E of SNE.

    What was going on that caused that? OR is it simply a case of it was what it was?

    Curious to know why those winds wouldn’t amplify and bring the storm at least to
    the Benchmark?

    Many thanks as always. 😀

    1. Add all the vectors and you get… never mind 😉

      Sometimes rapid development of convection will “displace” the center eastward. This may have been the case.

  13. I just thought of one silver lining for missing yesterday’s storm:

    2-3 inches of rain over 2-3 FEET of snow!!

    Massive flooding to say the least!

  14. Nice graphic of the storm development Tuesday Night:

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=595151280579247&set=a.178319238929122.42608.122106561217057&type=1&theater

    baroclinic leaf

    A synoptic-scale cloud pattern frequently observed in satellite imagery just prior to the onset of cyclogenesis.

    The cloud system is an elongated pattern with well-defined borders on both sides. It is associated with midtropospheric frontogenesis.

    Baroclinic leaf in English
    an elongated cloud pattern formed within the jet stream zone associated with marked baroclinicity (i.e. strong thermal contrast). The boundary (in satellite imagery) on the polar air-mass side of the development is well defined, and has the look of a ‘stretched-out’ “S” shape. The downstream / warm air-mass edge is less distinct. This feature represents the initial (or frontogenetic) stage of a system development, certainly in the mid-troposphere, and often (but not always) at the surface. Not all baroclinic leaves lead to marked cyclogenesis although they will be the first stage of such.

  16. Sunday looking like a washout starting Saturday night all rain around these parts. I also agree Pete nailed yesterday but would also like to give credit to Dave Epstein who called it as well.

    1. I was thinking at 3:00 this morning (I do my best thinking then) that Pete has managed to nail every major event I can remember going back to Earl when he was strongly criticized for saying it would not be a direct hit the Wednesday before. And strangely enough, he’s forecast all ahead of time. Please understand I know he misses forecasts. Please understand that I am aware he is not the only one who has properly forecast these major events. I was just thinking that somehow he has a handle on them early in the game.

  17. I think every type of storm brings hazards, snow for some causes problems but I bet 2-3 inches of rain cause a lot more problem for people with basement floods. So I know wish away snow but keep in mind rain can be just as bad for folks.

    1. I hope we don’t get that much rain, but an inch or 2 would be good for washing all this leftover dirty salt down the drains 🙂

  20. Are we talking an all day rain on Sunday? Have an event that morning (where people have to line up outside) so just trying to gauge! Thanks!

  21. The turf is about 2 weeks behind what it normally would be at for this time of year, obviously bc of the consistent colder than normal temps we’ve had this month, the rain usually tells the lawn to come out of dormancy. Average highs should be in the 50’s, and by mid April we should be in the 60’s, some of my properties r much greener south of providence as supposed to clients in Douglas, there’s usually some difference every year but this unusual colder weather has really stunted the lawns, suprisely I’m right on schedule. Good day 🙂

  22. John,
    Walked Down Longwood Ave about 10:30 this morning.
    Saw a dude driving a BobCat in front of Children’s Hospital. Was that you?
    Sun Glasses and maroon cap.
    😀

  23. John,
    Walked Down Longwood Ave about 10:30 this morning.
    Saw a dude driving a BobCat in front of Children’s Hospital. Was that you?
    Sun Glasses and maroon cap.
    😀 😀

    2. OS – totally off the subject – did you tell me you went to brunch at Mill Wharf/Chesters in Scituate Harbor? If I am remembering correctly, did you enjoy the food??

      1. Vicki,

        Yes, we were there a week before Christmas for a special brunch.
        It was Outstanding. Decor very rustic, but food was very good.
        I can only comment on their brunch fare, but there were many
        choices and all were excellent.

        View was off the charts. I even saw some harbor seals.

        If you go, enjoy!

    1. Amazing! Reminds me of standing along the wall by Scarborough Beach during Sandy. The wind is such an incredible power for something u cant even see.

    2. That’s a surface chart. Cut off lows are generally in the upper atmosphere,
      most notably 500mb.

  27. The weather gods are playing ball for Florida weather. Saturday showesr move in and clear out quickly by Sunday morning and a sprawling high comes in Sunday through the entire week. Temps will be a tad lower than average so somewhere in the 80-82 range 🙂 yes please !!!

    1. Enough out of you Hadi. Unless you are taking us all with you then we don’t want to hear it. 🙂 You know I am kidding and I hope you and your family have a fabulous vacation.

    1. It does, nice day, I’m down here in Warwick ri near Oakland beach, also a maroon color to all trees, the azaleas look to be late about a week, here they look to sprout yellow in about 8-10 days 🙂

        1. Where are you guys? I am in Lexington right now…warm enough that you don’t need a jacket to walk.

  29. Heard a call on the scanner today and read that the first brush fires have started in the area. The rains will be good this weekend but it doesn’t take too long to dry things out. All it needs is the initial layer for it to be dry

  30. Vicki – when should we have our WHW South Shore gathering? Perhaps a meeting at the Bridgewaye??

    1. Would be perfect – but would Pembroke area be better? That’d make it right off the highway??? Maybe last two weeks – maybe between 17-24th? We are (sniff) heading home Tues-Thurs for first two to work. Mac didn’t want to commute and I cannot blame him one bit. Maybe even non-SS folks would like to join us 🙂

      1. I don’t mind the Bridgewaye but if others do want to join then we should pick something closer to Route 3. Perhaps The Cask ‘n Flagon?

  31. OS – thank you. I didn’t see brunch on the website. We typically go for lunch at least once while in the area but I LOVE brunches. I called and they do have them on Sunday!! Appreciate your input.

    1. Anytime. AND it was a Sunday that we were there.
      We really enjoyed it, that’s for sure!

      It’s kind of a different place. Don’t expect really fancy as I said it is very
      rustic, but nice.

      1. Thanks OS. We have been before. Just not for brunch. We had no idea they even did a brunch till you mentioned it. And I like comfortable….especially since grandkids will be going also

  32. Temp 45.3 degrees, nothing but sun, still below average, but what a great day, wind is only in the 10-15mph area, good day 🙂

    1. If I could make my typing very very tiny, I’d say I loved today. Air is crisp, sun is warm, signs of spring are popping up. But since we don’t have any font size control here, I’ll keep that thought to myself ;). ☀️

        1. Heyyyy you must have read my thoughts since I didnt type anything ;). And if I had, I’d say I did the same. The neighborhood is jumping with kids playing outside even now

    1. Really scary. Thanks OS. They were checking to see of there had been a tornado in CA today but I can’t remember where….maybe LA area ?

        1. It was confirmed then? I know thunder is not typical in San Francisco….is it more likely inland toward Sacramento ? And are tornadoes rare ?

          1. Tornadoes are somewhat rare there, but under the right conditions we can see several in a season, and then none for a long while, accounting for the low average.

            Yes it was confirmed.

  35. NWS mentions the possibility of dynamic cooling for Sunday resulting in snow/sleet moving southward into SNE.

    TK –

    1. What are your thoughts on this for Sunday?

    2. Was dynamic cooling at least partially responsible for the 1997 April Fool’s Storm?

    1. 1. I believe we will see dynamic cooling, and it’s probably be under-forecast. Accumulating snow/sleet likely occurs in southern NH and probably occurs in much of northern MA at some point later Sunday.

      2. Yes, it was a major factor. Many Spring snowstorms result from dynamic cooling.

  37. The CPC still shows well below normal temps probably into mid-April.

    TK – Are we looking at just typical miserable cold rains or potential snow events still possible (beyond Sunday)?

    1. Lots of cold air aloft, cold ocean. Snow threats are not over. Not saying everytime we have a storm around it’ll snow. But given the right conditions, part of the region will snow. Significant snow storm(s)? Time will tell.

  38. It was splendid standing outside school without a jacket for an hour today because of yet another bomb threat at our school…

    1. People need to start studying for exams they don’t want to take instead of calling in bomb threats. The interruptions are unnecessary, and sometimes quite cold and/or wet.

      1. I agree. The threat was clearly fake, just a ploy to deeply annoy everyone in the school and cause a huge waste of money. Just very frustrating

  41. Not sure we have many nights below freezing the next 5-7 days, and a matter of fact, I’m not sure there are many days Boston gets below freezing again until next Nov, Models say lots of rain coming. Goodnight 🙂

    1. There won’t be that many below freezing nights, typical of a cloudy/damp early Spring pattern. Most of the rain looks like Saturday night and Sunday.

  42. patriots and wilfork negiotiated and he is staying a patriot … pats defense looks beast this year.. Now only if they can all stay healthy, recievers got a year under their belt and we need another running back because they basically let Blount run off

    1. i believed he also signed with the ravens of all places. not sure really where he is now all i know is that he is no longer a patriots which is pathetic i would have gotten rit of ridley

  45. Get ready NAO is going negative and is already at neutral…..where were you 3 months ago negative NAO?????

  46. B’s 3-0, in what has to be one of the most well played games I have seen in 2 years regardless of the team you like. Excellent hockey.

    2. Yup, same schedule every year. I like it because I’m in 3rd place out of 88 in my brother’s pool. 😀

        1. Weather for $2,000 ……

          This 1991 Hurricane developed off the SE coast and moved NNE, making landfall around Block Island, RI and taking a path across SE Mass, producing strong winds to its east and flooding rains to its north and west.

                1. My dad has gotten me into jeopardy lately. If its sports related, weather, geography, I have a chance. Anything else, forget it !

                2. I bet you run the math categories also. We have watched it every night since our kids were little. My oldest grandson gets some of the answers now.

  48. i find basketball boring as all hell to watch, good to play boring to watch..
    Football and Hockey is where its at as well as soccer

  49. Oh I also found out why the water has been more constant at a certain levele latly… The got rid of 2 of the 4 dams and the other 2 are on their way out as well to help replenish the native river fish of the shawsheen. 🙂

  51. Is anyone else finding the NWS site slow the last couple days ? Cant get links to open, this morning … its headline is back to Powerful Winter storm to affect southeast Mass ……… I’d say it was my home computer, but my work computer is seeing the same things happen as well.

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