The Week Ahead

148 Comments

9:26PM

Monday is the last day of March and also the last day of a 2 1/2 day stretch of nasty weather, courtesy a slow-moving low pressure area that has crawled up the East Coast along a frontal boundary over the weekend. It will slowly wander out to sea later Monday and Monday night, but as it starts its departure, enough cold air working around its back side will cause some mixed showers (rain/sleet/snow). Only minor brief accumulations of sleet/snow may occur where showers concentrate for a while, mainly inland and higher elevations, during the day on Monday. It won’t be cold enough at the surface to allow anything that falls to stay on the ground. And anything that does sit for a while would do so on unpaved surfaces.

A nice break comes on Tuesday as we get some sunshine and a little milder air due to a narrow area of high pressure extending down across the region. But with the tendency for high pressure to be centered to the north of the region and a frontal boundary still hanging around to the south and east, it seems that clouds will try to make a comeback by Wednesday, and we may see the winds turn more north or east, tempering any warm-up. As most Spring forecasts are, this one is a little iffy as we move through the week. I’m feeling a little more optimistic about Thursday, not because we get a warm push from the south, but because the high to the north is a bit stronger and pushes things back to the south. So based on that idea I’ll go optimistically for some sun but below normal temperatures. This may hold into Friday, an important day for Red Sox fans as it is the home opener (2PM). By later Friday, clouds should be advancing ahead of a northeastward push of low pressure which is likely destined to make the next weekend unsettled (wet and cool Saturday, breezy and cool but drying out Sunday). Again, this is somewhat low confidence. There will be plenty of fine tuning to come.

For now, here’s the best guess for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle. Some rain may be heavy. Lows 35-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain showers except some sleet/snow at times especially inland and north/northwest of Boston where brief minor accumulation may occur. Temperatures steady 35-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers early, followed by partial clearing. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 55 except cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 50 except cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Low 35. High 50 except cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 40. High 45.

SUNDAY: Breaking clouds, windy. Low 35. High 45.

148 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. I’m heading to the sea wall at Lynn Beach around 10:30PM to observe the waves. Should be some splash-over there. High tide is just before midnight.

  4. Thanks TK. Liked your response to my comment on the last blog :). TK, why isn’t there 12 hour flash flood guidance on the NWS site. I have noticed that for some time. Guidance has gone down quite a it with last night’s rains added in to the equation.

  6. While I am happy for my relatives in the UK that they are having mild temperatures, I am very jealous and not happy that we are paying for it 🙂

  12. Ocean must have come up under the house we are in. I watched until midnight and it was close then. There was a walkway to the beach that we rolled up and moved to the concrete lower deck. It is now under the side of the house. Tide was very much higher last night than yesterday day

  13. No mention of this site being down Saturday through most of yesterday??????
    Was it down for all? Quite an outage for sure.

    This weather sucks!!!

    Where is SPRING?????????????????????

    Oh I forgot, this is New England and this is SPRING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    😈

      1. CMC has a snow storm. Euro a rain storm (but snow line close) and the GFS hasn’t got a clue on this one at this time. 😀

  15. Hello everyone, moderate sleet here in Lowell. My brother lives in Wallingford Ct and he said it’s snowing very heavy, the flakes are really huge. Wish we could get it here

  16. water has made it to the half way point on the old river bank. which is a 15 foot pitch so the water is at about 7.5 feet…. All the paths that my brother and i have made is under water… One more good amount of rain and we start seeing water at the endge of the yard. Hoping the trees and brush start to wake up and start sucking the water up soon

  18. WOW – HEAVY SNOW in Manchester, CT! Massive flakes – biggest I have ever seen. It has been absolutely POUNDING snow for an hour and a half now. Complete whiteout. Roads are terrible with numerous accidents. One of my co-workers just arrived from Springfield and said he passed 5 accidents, two of them multi-vehicle accidents, on I-91 between Springfield and Hartford. I was expecting a little wet snow and sleet this AM but was NOT expecting this!!

    1. Please send it here. Not doing much of anything here. Spitting a little
      something now and then.

      Enjoy.

  19. Sweet mother. 40-50 dbz returns on the radar over us right now. We’re pushing 2″ on the ground here – would not be surprised if I ended up with 3 or 4″ at my house which is up at 700′ elevation. Already had an inch at the house before I left and we weren’t even under the heavy snow band there at that time.

    This is like a very intense snow squall only SLOW moving. Pretty wild.

  20. Just had a couple other co-workers walk in who drove in from our Providence office. Once of them just looked at me, shook his head, and said WTF.

    1. Amazing. We had snow showers in Scituate a bit ago. Daughter said snow showers in Framingham. But not accumulating like your area

  21. Pretty crazy stuff Vicki. It just changed over to sleet which is now pelting the window. Doesn’t looks like the band is going to push much farther east (or at least do so at this intensity).

    1. It’s been a crazy weekend. Some expected and some not which makes it a weather lovers dream I think. Talk about the kitchen sink. Accumulating snow there. Sustained high winds here with the ocean all stirred up and looking to be an even higher tide than last night’s.

  22. Next Tuesday looks very intriguing with the CMC depicting a snowstorm and the GFS/Euro not too far off from one either. Clipper dives down from Canada to the Ohio Valley and joins up with a low from the Gulf to form a coastal storm that moves south of New England. A potentially good setup for at least an interior snowstorm. Could it be a replay of 4/9/96?

    http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/NJSnow-09Apr96.png

  26. Impressive snow totals in Northern New England, also in the valleys. That snowpack is only going to increase in the coming week or so. Atop Mt. Washington some very cold weather ahead with lots of accumulating snow showers. I’m headed there this summer for a volunteer week at the observatory, in preparation for a winter volunteer retreat in January 2015.

    1. That sounds awesome Joshua. You’ll have to report to us from atop the summit on the weather next year!

  27. As I watch it continue to off and on snow outside ……

    For me, this has been the most dreadful March weatherwise I can recall in a long time.

    Its felt, except for maybe 4 or 5 days, like an extension of January or February, even without much snow. Goodbye to March in 11hrs and maybe April, weatherwise can offer something a bit more uplifting.

    1. I don’t know Tom I have a feeling…. No more than that…that we stay in this pattern for a while.

        1. Make that 3 of us, but somewhere in this next 30 days, there has got to be one day that can inspire some semblance of spring, weatherwise.

          Oh, well … worst case scenario, 17 more days til we head south for Spring Break into the southern Carolinas. It has to be warmer there (I think 🙂 )

          1. The Carolina’s should be beautiful. That’s the week we always went. We were the only ones in the ocean. They thought it was cold….little do they know 🙂

            1. Havent been since 2005. My brother-in-law and his family live down there. Avg high is 75F-76F the week we are there.

              So true about getting into the ocean. Their April ocean water temps are probably our July ocean temps.

              1. We are jealous. We have very fond memories. Too many to be ready to head back but we are thinking that it’s time and may go next spring.

  28. Fiance’s brother and sis-in-law just bought a house near us in Walpole and they woke up to 3″ of water in their basement. One more inch and they would have lost the furnace. Realtor told them there was never any water in the basement, oops! Its gonna be a busy week…

      1. Early 1900’s colonial, i think fieldstone foundation but im not 100% sure. There wasn’t any visible evidence of prior water in the basement which was odd, but our house didnt have any evidence either.

              1. I think NNE. I’m not sold on it. Wind direction is giving me a forecasting issue this week.

  30. Good morning, been working since 5am, I’m soaked and cold, truck temp says 37 degrees, still drizzly here 🙂

      1. I’d imagine today has not been fun out in the elements. The wind chill is nasty and there were sleet pellets whisking by in the wind about 10 minutes ago.

  31. Hi all!

    Impressive local snowstorm in central CT this morning-midday. Up to 5 inches. I would not have forecast more than 2 inches there. There were, as expected, patchy coatings of snow/sleet in my main WHW forecast area. The last of the dying band is sliding off to the SSE now and will be a memory soon, leaving us with damp weather and lots of clouds. Eventually tonight we start to dry out under a partly cloudy sky and a gusty wind. Tomorrow, while not a warm day, will feel quite nice with some sunshine to start April off. Still think Wednesday ends up mostly cloudy but with a touch of luck we push stuff to the south for more sun Thursday before clouds return Friday.

    40s at Fenway for the home opener, probably under a thickening overcast. I know it’s only Monday so we can’t be 100% sure that wet weather will hold off through that game. We won’t pretend to be able to pin down timing that close 4 days in advance. But with some luck it’ll be a dry game and the rain will come in at night into Saturday. Sunday looks windy and colder. Next week could get quite interesting for a day or so. Late season snow/mix storm? Not out of the question.

  32. Proof that the MLB season is too long. Starts too early and ends too late. Weather in the northern cities is not conducive for baseball in early April nor in late Oct/early Nov. Knock off about 30 games and start the season in mid April and go till mid Oct.

    1. Totally agree Acemaster, it’s just to long in general, by Oct everyone is already in football mode 🙂

    2. I disagree. I love playing ball in the cold in April. It was the prelude of things to come. I pitched in the snow before in high school. Batters couldn’t pick up rotation. There is nothing like the game of baseball. So many challenges between pitcher and the batter, guessing pitch selection based on batters past performance. Second guessing the managers desicions. Stats, stats and more stats! To me football is a distant #2.

      1. Don’t get me wrong, I love baseball. Its such a more cerebral game. I just used to hate that feeling of trying to get lose on a damp raw day and hitting a ball low on the barrel and get that numbing tingle in ur hands. Much more prefer warmer weather for baseball. Seeing those players last year during the playoffs in ski masks? Nope, lol

  33. This rain might lead to increase in quality for the marshland behind my house.
    1. Dams have been removed so water is flowing a tad faster.
    2. i decided to put a line out see what i could catch. I caught 4 fish . of course catch then release. but 4 fish i would of been lucky to catch 1 in years past. real test will be the amount of frogs and snakes that i find in the warmer months of spring
    3. I have seen river otters already 😀
    4 Plus neibor said that the water quality has greatly improved

    1. Sounds more typical than it has been for years. I was thinking today that even the flowers and bushes etc are back to a more typical year

  34. Hi everyone!!!
    What a day here in parts of CT especially those living along and close to the I-91 corridor. A quick couple of inches of snow in a couple hours. I ended up with a coating and missed the heavy snow band which set up shop east of me.
    AceMaster I agree the baseball season is too long. I wish it was a 100 game season that started in early May and ended late September early October.
    I woodshill.net is back online! I missed chatting with all of you over the weekend during that rainorama where there were some impressive rain totals.

    1. I missed seeing you and everyone on here too. We all sure do enjoy this site. Thank you TK. You give us a phenomenal weather site but in addition you have created a little family.

  35. The CPC still shows well below normal temps through mid-April. So far it seems JMA’s thoughts regarding the pattern not letting go until late April at the earliest is right on target.

    It still remains to be seen if the snow shovels can be put away soon, but the winter coats will most certainly be needed for most if not all of April…early May as well??

  36. May have a watcher the middle of next week according to Bruce Deprest of WFSB In CT.
    Next week a series of coastal storm will move off the East Coast. The first should pass by well to the south of New England on Monday. However, the second coastal storm could potentially bring rain or a wintry mix by Wednesday night and Thursday. We’ll keep you updated on that situations over the coming days.

  37. How quickly the tide turns. Literally. The Sudbury that was down to mud…literally…behind my SILs office building in Ashland is now close to flood. The sections of the Sudbury I watch along Pelham Island Rd Wayland and also in Saxonville are close to flood. Oddly, the Sudbury in framingham had dropped a few days ago.

  38. Judging by models, a lot of 50’s for highs, wouldn’t suprise me to see some locales close to 60 degrees on Thursday. Looking like a beautiful week ahead, even the weekend at this point looks ok. 🙂

    1. Be careful not to look at just the upper air. Surface is going to be key.

      Weekend, especially Saturday, does not look OK.

      Temps average below normal through day 14.

      CPC hints at cool weather through May as well.

  39. Sorry about the crappy weather at home. It’s been perfect here in Florida. Spent the day at magic kingdom and the kids were in heaven. High was about 78 no humidity.

    2. Lol that’s what my brother seems to say every time I talk to him, ” sorry about the crappy weather” glad ur having a good time in Florida, much improved after today around here 🙂

  40. Crowds were so so. Longest wait was space mountain about 45 min. My 4 1/2 did it and loved it. We were shocked as he is pretty young for intense roller coaster.

  41. I loved space mountain the first time I went on it when I was 7 years old. It is still my favorite ride at the Magic Kingdom.

  42. I’ve officially put away all plows and salters for the season, I’ve picked up about 60% of the snow stakes, I swear I’m like Santa Claus during this time of yr, everyone’s so happy to see me take there stakes lol I find it funny, anyways a very very busy month ahead , goodnight 🙂

  43. Some areas in Lowell experiencing flooding due to dams built by Beavers. Beavers are a protected specie so the city has to get approval to take down the dams.

  44. Looking at the GFS, it appears the storm on the 8th will go right up Rte 95 and looks like rain.

      1. Exactly. No way to know just yet.
        😀

        Euro has trended South and CMC has stayed the course.

        Could be very interesting….

  50. I still think mid 50’s to around 60 degrees tommorrow and Thursday, and it stays mild through the weekend 🙂

  51. One of our meteorologists here in CT was hinting at the storm that has been mentioned around 4/8 that could bring rain or wintry mix. I remember an event around that time in the 96 which just added to the snowiest winter on record. It was snowing during the Yankees home opener that day in the Bronx.

  53. Old Salty you were mentioning the east wind it stinks during the spring but in the summer if your not a fan of the heat and humidity that win off the water is good giving coastal areas a little relief. In addition on a day with thunderstorms those winds off the water will stablize the atmosphere just enough to weaken thunderstorms on the approach. The one thing thunderstorms hate stable air which is their kryptonite.

    2. JJ the 11th/12th time frame could produce a whopper of a snow storm
      around these parts. Something to certainly keep an eye on.

      Time will tell as it is 10 days out, but sometimes the Euro has been
      good at sniffing these things out, even if the track get messed up
      along the way.

      And we have one on the 8th/9th to watch as well.

      Winter doesn’t want to quit just yet.

      I have to say the 11th/12th system looks to be COLDER.

  54. To me winter more times than not does not go quietly and it would not surprise me if one of those watchers does produce accumulating snow for parts of SNE. I does snow in April so it certainly is unpredecendentant to get accumulating snow during this month. April 1982 and 1987 come to mind.
    Today is the 17 year anniversary of the April Fools Storm. What a storm it was with heavy wet snow strong winds thunder snow. I got about a foot of snow from that but there were places in SNE that got close to two feet. It was my only April snow day I ever had and it worked out great since my mom let me stay up late with school cancelled the next day to watch the NCAA Championship game between Arizona and Kentucky which Arizona won in OT for its first national title in school history.

  56. Apologies for lack of update. Intended to do one last night and never quite got there. Will update this aftn!

    1. Tk – you are being just plain silly 😆

      The weather is beautiful and you have to take time for you.

      Update:

      Lovely spring day
      Vivid blue sky dotted with puffy clouds (nearest to me looks like a puffer fish)
      Gentle spring breeze
      Birds singing spring’s welcome

      Oh and any chance of a storm on April 12 is cancelled 😉

  57. OS, I saw the end of the Euro run and was going to mention it as well. Very interesting setup. We will be having watchers into May at this rate.

    The good thing for those who don’t like snow is that it sure melts fast this time of year. The snow we got yesterday AM here in CT was pretty much gone by 3PM, except in some shady areas. And it was cold yesterday and the sun never really came out.

    1. Mark how much snow did you get yesterday? I only had a coating. Impressive snow band that setup shop on the I-91 corridor
      where 2-4 inches in a couple hours fell.

      1. JJ, we got about two inches. It was pretty wild for a few hours. Enough to snarl things up big time on the roadways as it was coming down HARD.

  58. At the coast, I am willing to bet my entire fortune (all $1,000) that we will not be getting accumulating snows this month. Inland a different story. Along the coast, just a lot of really lousy, crummy, `spring’ weather. Dominant wind out of the east/northeast most of this month. Occasionally a teaser (today and tomorrow, sort of) thrown into the mix. Nothing to write home about, though. I don’t think any day this month will comfort the soul.

    2. Not so fast.

      And why not at the coast? Ocean temperatures are plenty cold enough.

      I respectively disagree.

      It depends on the track of any potential storm. If it’s cold enough for snow inland, if the track is right, it will snow at the coast as well.

      Time will tell.

  59. Please keep any storms away on the 12th. We are driving to NYC that day to pick up my husband’s daughters at JFK. They are moving here from Jamaica and are in for a shock when they feel the temperature. A snow storm that day may be enough to send them running back to the island. 🙂

      1. Thanks Vicki! This is going to be such a big change for them. I have been trying to find them heavy coats but of course it is already bathing suit season in the stores. Was hoping to find some bargains on clearance!

        1. Try Burlington Coat. Don’t know if there is one
          near you.

          Around here there is one in Natick and another in
          Braintree.

        2. Sue – OS is right that Burlington Coat has great prices. I sent a lands end 30% off email to you also. I messaged you on FB. Good luck.

  60. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

    Pattern for next week is wild.All models with threat of major winter like event,fits with phase 3 MJO.Massive cold in Canada lurks mid month

    2. Great video – thank you. I can’t remember how much we got. The highlight for me was power loss for several days. One of the commenters/bloggers said the mets in Boston were caught off guard. I don’t remember that at all. I remember expecting a huge storm and heading with the kids to the barn early to get chores done and the horses settled. We didn’t think we’d be back for a day or so.

    3. Looks like BB’s numbers were way underdone, but then again, was there anyone who predicted that much snow?

      I have little recollection of this storm as I was still living in Upstate NY at the time. I think it was pretty much just a run of the mill early Spring storm up there and we were on the fringes of it.

  64. Wish I could send today’s weather home. Clearly blue skies and temp around 82. No humidity.

  65. the amount of , how much snow, how cold will it be etc questions i got messaged to me after i posted my april fools joke this morning 😀 so many thought i was serious lol:D what i posted (winter storm to effect us later this week. ) 😀

  72. 12z Euro has an inside runner for the 4/8 storm. Energy transfer happens to a coastal storm off Maine but too late to give anyone but northern NH and ME some snow.

    It’s plenty cold enough on 4/10 for the next storm but Euro now has that a near miss out to sea. 850mb 0C line is all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico….LOL.

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