A 100% Of Weather

108 Comments

8:26PM

Here’s a guarantee. There is a 100% chance of weather during the next 7 days. And this weather will be quite typical of this time of year. What, no dramatic headlines? They may have to resort to coming up with reasons why the weather is not so unusual. Sarcasm aside, a variety of weather but not too extreme during the coming days. Here’s a break-down:

High pressure northwest to north of the region extends into New England with dry and cool to mild weather Thursday. A low pressure area moves southwest to northeast across the northeastern US, passing north of New England late Friday and early Saturday. This will bring a period of wet weather Friday night and early Saturday, followed by improving weather later Saturday. High pressure moves in on Sunday which looks great. A similar cycle repeats Monday and Tuesday next week which will be similar to Friday and Saturday this week. By the middle of next week, a shot of chilly air is expected, and it may be lead in by a late-season bout of wintry precipitation. But being 6+ days away, it’s automatically low confidence from a forecasting standpoint.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s, coolest east-facing coastal areas. Wind light variable then N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds  southwest to northeast. Lows in the 30s. Wind light NE to E.

FRIDAY: Thickening overcast southwest to northeast. Rain possible south and west of Boston by the end of the afternoon. Highs middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coastal areas. Wind light E to SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain or rain showers AM. Clearing west to east PM. Low 40. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Low 35. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain / PM rain showers. Low 40. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix possible AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 30. High 44.

108 thoughts on “A 100% Of Weather”

    1. It is. We have finally moved beyond the winter pattern. Not to say we can’t sneak in a late season snow event, but the vast majority of the weather is now going to be more typical of April averages (maybe still a bit cool on the average for the 2 week period).

      1. The street was alive with kids playing until after 7:00 tonight. I couldn’t help but wonder if kids are the best harbinger of spring 🙂

        2. Kids love to play outside, it seemed everyone had a smile on there face bc of the weather. Sun and mild temps naturally bring happiness 🙂

            1. I think it’s true on both ends.

              I used to go nuts happy when it was going to snow or was snowing.

              And I just loved those first spring days when we could do stuff outside we hadn’t been able to do for quite a while. 🙂

              1. And the summer when HHH meant playing outside all day. And fall when jumping in the leaves could amuse for hours

                I agree TK

              2. Lol why is this ok? I used to love the snow, but bc of what both of you mentioned I remember being cooped up inside, I hated it, I see it in my kids bc after the 30th cold day and 6th time sledding, they go right back to bikes etc outside stuff, you can’t compare kids of then to now, don’t torture the modern day kids, bring em somewhere warm 🙂

                1. Ah, so because I take my son out to snowboard and sled, I’m torturing him? Or because we live in a place with FOUR seasons, I’m torturing him? That comment may be one of the all time worst I have ever seen. Not only that, it breaks the only rule I really have here. It’s insulting. And if living here is torture to the “modern day kid”, why are you still here? Follow your own advice. I’m not quite sure what you mean by “cooped up inside” either. Were you held prisoner by the weather when you were little? On top of that, most “modern day kids” spend 95% of their time inside by choice, watching TV or playing video games on their electronic devices. When we grew up, we went outside and played in all kinds of weather (the obvious exception being severe storms). In the winter, it snowed and was cold. We used something called “winter clothes” (coats, hats, boots, gloves/mittens). If there is any difference between then and now, there are many kids today that are probably less likely to tolerate the cold because they are directly or indirectly taught that it’s either bad or they are not supposed to be able to handle it. I fail to see the logic in that. But after all, it is just my opinion. Every year when the holidays are closing in, my son says to me “Dad, I can’t wait til we can go on the winter walks and go sledding.” etc. And when we get to the late winter, he’s just as happy to go walking or sledding or snowboarding… Sounds like he’s being tortured doesn’t it?

                  You cannot resist telling people how they should feel about weather, sports, life, etc. Why? I’m losing people posting because of the relentlessness of these comments. I’ve been giving you chance after chance to be more courteous, but you know exactly where the line is. So far you’ve done a great job at stepping right up to it, pushing buttons, and leaning over, without stepping over. Well now you have stepped over. And the only reason I’m making this comment public is because you have had no problem making all yours toward other people and “this lovely blog” (as you sarcastically called it last week) public yourself.

                  I have had no problems that you (or anyone else) air your opinions. Everybody has the right to do that. But you know that most of your posts are to get a reaction out of people who are probably better off not giving the reaction, but find it hard not to when they are being continuously poked at. Well, now you’re getting a reaction from me. Enough! Stop telling people how they should feel about weather, and other things. You do that by questioning the very sanity of someone’s thoughts and relating it to the long term well being of their own children. That would be like me telling you that you are hurting your own kids by opening your pool in April. I don’t care when you open your pool. That’s your call. But then you go and laugh because I tell someone to keep a snow shovel handy in April, or talk about how I enjoyed growing up here because of the different seasons? Don’t know what I mean? Read your comment above again a few times. Maybe it will sink in.

                  This is the last kind of comment reply I wanted to write here, but you have left me no choice. I am obligated to do what is best for this blog, which is destined to become a very important part of my future, and I would like to have continue for the benefit of those who use it. Of all people, you should be able to understand that. So, are you going to discontinue the implied and sometimes direct disrespect toward your fellow bloggers, or continue the bully act? Even after all of this, I give you a chance yet again to blog here, but you are going to have to play by the rules. The choice is yours. Choose wisely.

      1. I didn’t know the crescent moons had names – other than my mom’s of God’s fingernail of course 🙂 Do they all? Why is this called the yellow?

  7. TK – What are your thoughts on the 11th/12th system? Has it been mearly delayed or totally gone altogether?

    If in fact, it is gone, I don’t see how we can “sneak” in a snow event thereafter. The CPC now appears to show the cold retreating towards mid-month after one final blast mid-week.

    Keep the shovel handy still…or put away for the season?

      1. Why don’t you just keep yours out all year round? Turn it just the right way in July and it can be a bird bath. You just can’t resist poking at the fact that I point out that we can get snow in April, even though you declare winter over on March 1 pretty much every year. You say or imply the same thing over and over so many times that your comments should go into syndication.

    2. The 11th-12th is beyond the model’s range of being remotely reliable.
      We need to watch the 8th-9th still. That has been a flagged watch period for a while. It initially looks like the system is a mild one, but there may be a second low with colder air around.

  8. TK – Is Barry OK? I haven’t seen him on-air lately other than the Spring Preview and that was one little segment at the beginning with Eric doing most of the talking.

    Does Barry retire this year?? 🙁

  9. I know I know but I was bored.

    Accuweather long range has the following hi temps:
    40’s = 1 day
    50’s = 18 days
    60’s = 23 days
    70’s = 3 days

    I also believe the tree’s should be budding this month with some leaves out by the end of the month.

    1. Coastal on some of the trees in our neighborhood I can see the buds a bit more every day. And I’m glad you were bored – those temps look great! Well, I didn’t mean I’m glad you were bored but you know 🙂

    1. I feel like the pollen is getting started – I was going to do some yardwork today, but as I stood outside, my eyes started watering a LOT. It’s just too nice outside to stay indoors! Quick question for everyone – my snowdrops seem to be a bit dormant – one flower, I don’t see any other buds. Anyone else? Crocuses haven’t even erupted from the ground. Granted, we had a heavy snowcover and these areas are finally now clear of snow, but sometimes they poke up through the snow. Maybe I need to feed them?

  11. Tk you have every right to delete me from the blog, why? if it’s bc of talking torturing kids literally, that’s silly! How am I bullying people tk? I feel like I’m being bullied, we will never see eye to eye on this, human beings naturally like warm, and human beings naturally don’t like cold, it’s true, we were all born that way, saying that I do love all the weather, but I’m not sure many get more excited when springs here.

    Starting off mild already, sunny temp is 36.3 degrees 🙂

    Shoot me an email if needed tk, thanks in advance 🙂

  12. Thanks for everything you do TK. I thoroughly enjoy both reading and participating in this blog. I tend to go MIA from now until about November, but it’s such a great place to go and learn and engage in a common passion. Thanks again….see you in November

  13. I don’t come on here thinking how can I disrupt the blog, no way, I voice my opinion, sometimes blogging and texting can be exaggerating in text form and taken out of form of what it’s original purpose was, thanks tk 🙂

    1. No disprespect Charlie, but I feel you use the “text can be interpreted wrong” as a darn good excuse to how you respond to many posts on this blog.

    3. Speaking of that, ive seen a few discussions about a possible gathering soon for south shore folks. Any room for a south coast/interior SE MA/not really sure what my area is called, blogger in that gathering? 🙂

    1. I totally agree, this is a wonderful and I have learned a lot of great things on here, so thanks TK for all the work you do here!

  16. TK, you do a fantastic job here and I am extremely grateful for this blog. I have learned a ton about weather and made some great friends. Keep up the great work.

  17. TK I appreciate all your efforts with this blog and wanted to take this opportunity to say thank you!

  18. Tension indeed on the blog today. I said I would not post until fall, and here I am posting again. I guess I am addicted to TK’s wonderful creation.

    I think TK’s right to point out that Charlie crossed the line when he spoke of “torturing children” by residing in New England. Nothing could be further from the truth. If given a chance, children relish time spent outdoors in all seasons and all kinds of weather. We as a society have taken this away from them. I don’t blame modern technology, because ultimately we are the ones who demand gadgetry (well, not me, but that’s just me – I’m virtually cellphone-less, have no cable TV, no iPOD, iPAD, or iANYTHING).

    It’s also important to note that from an historical perspective (I’m an economist, who also studies economic history), exposure to four seasons, or at least climate variability is very conducive to societal productivity. This cannot be overemphasized. The global North-South divide is caused by multiple factors. I certainly recognize this. But, climate is one of the factors. We are very lucky in our part of the world to not be affected by the scourge of tropical diseases that literally impact a billion people worldwide. Excessive heat and the lack of frost impact sanitation as well, leading to more public health issues. I could go on and on about this, but won’t because I do have a day job to attend to.

    I do not mind Charlie’s posts. I have enjoyed them at times. I can, however, imagine people feeling put off by them sometimes.

  19. WHW is an amazing blog. It’s not only a place to share a passion but a place to share knowledge. For me it is a place to learn about something that has always fascinated me. I’ve never once felt uncomfortable asking a question and it has always seemed no question is too small. Thank you, TK!!!

  20. I can’t thank TK enough and have learned more weather from him than anyone else. Most people on this blog I learn a lot from, and only a very few that I learn nothing from. TK keep up the great work, and thank you for all of your hard work you put into this blog, for all of us to enjoy.

  21. I haven’t posted in awhile myself but I have to say that this forum is the most interesting and informative of all the weather related sites I have been too. I trust in the info that TK (and others) put out here more than anything I could find elsewhere. It’s a great forum with a lot of great people.

  22. These days are sad with the lack of kids outside.
    I was the kid that had none of those game systems. I looked outside for my fun. Most kids these days have the game systems. these days schools give way to much homework, invade summer vacation and winter break…. so the time that they do have for free time they decide to use that for game systems instead of going outside.
    Kids still play sports and all of that for a while. I was that kid that went outside in the morning and i did not go in till the late afternoon then i was probably back out till the sun set… My brothers and I made forts, climbed trees and made up games. This part is greatly lacking these days just going out haveing a good time with nature… It sadens me because i learned some important things by doing these. problem solve. Also who knew you could make a good enough fort that ya could sleep in it 😉 The lack of kids wanting to be outside period. The lack of kids that want snow days or want to even go in the snow have diminished greatly because of the “snow haters of the generation” Also not tring to put anyone down on the blog but come on lets be honest so many parents these days baby their kids so much that they can’t go in the woods and experiment and learn on their own…. I got my air share of bruising and cuts and scraps.. its part of the learning but now some of that learning has gone to parents just saying it and the kid says something Yeah ok mom. Yeak ok Dad then end up doing something even more stupid in their future that could hurt him very bad…. sorry my rant is over. Wonderful weather we are having im going to go biking before i have to go to my night class.

    1. I agree that kids should be out more. Not to toot my own horn but I started bringing my kids out to playgrounds, walks at the waterfront, Castle Island etc…from the time they were born. It must have instilled something in my boys because they would much rather be outside playing football, soccer, army, or whatever else they are in the mood for, than being inside. And they are just as excited about playing on the snow fort as they are the wooden one they built in the back yard. I am not saying they don’t spend some time in front of the TV or on tablets but if given the choice, they go running to the back door. And not only that, they have learned to appreciate the four seasons and recognize the signs of change. I wouldn’t give that up for anything!

      1. yeah but play grounds are not as much fun for the kids because they are all tiny plastic things None of those big wooden structures anymore 🙁

          2. there are some good ones that are still around but the ones in the past 10 years if they are fixed need to be plastic, not wood, can’t past a certain height limit as well forgot what it was but i know the one in billerica is extremely small after they took out the wooden structure. it use to be split up into two sections small and Big. now there is no big

  23. Growing up I loved Winter. I was outside playing no matter how cold it was.
    Snow storms were awesome. Snow forts, snowball fights, you name it.
    Ice skating as much as possible. Pond hockey. Ice fishing. Sledding. There was always
    something. I didn’t Ski until I was older. I enjoyed the other seasons as well.

    Baseball, baseball and more baseball. I played football only because it was something
    to do. I hated basketball, but even played that to fill out a team.
    And don’t forget swimming, hiking and fishing fishing fishing and more fishing.

    This is a GREAT place to live. It is awesome that we have the 4 seasons!!!

  24. Matt – I loved hearing the perspective from a young adult. My son was much like you. He loved the woods. He still hikes and has done a good portion of the App Trail on his own. The girls were at the barn all day, every day either working with their horses or going for day long trail rides. My generation was just outside. I learned to ski just about the same time I learned to walk but there was fishing and hopscotch Giant Step, etc. I also think Sue is right that it is instilled in the kids by the parents.

    BTW Matt your comments with regard to school make a great argument for the Scandinavian approach of much, much greater play and less homework and structured sports. Something about that has to be right since they are consistently among the best schools in the world.

  25. Thank you, TK, for all the work you do and for this wonderful blog. Here I can share my passion for the weather with people who love the weather like I do.

    We were never fortunate enough to have children, but from what I have seen on TV lots of kids love the snow – not just the “no school anouncements” but all those pretty snowflakes falling down and playing in the snow. I have very fond memories of spring, summer and fall as a youth – but also of winter. We built igloos, made snow angels and it was special to me when my father pulled me on a sled. Great memories. And ‘though right now the thought of temps. in the 70’s would be nice, I would prob’ly get bored in living in the same climate all the time. I love the change of seasons – beautiful and exciting.

  27. Was just out during lunch in Walpole, a sunny 54 degrees. I don’t think we get to 60 but still a fantastic spring day out there. You can feel the strength of the sun just wanting to push those temps up, but the air even today still has a slight “chill” to it. That springtime warm air feel is still not here yet.

  28. Vicki – will the upcoming meetup be during the day or night? I am not sure I feel comfortable driving at night myself that far on the highway. If it will be at night, don’t change anything – perhaps I will meet you and everyone another time.

    1. rainshine – I’m not sure of the time. So far it’s pretty much up in the air. I’m not working but I am sure others are. Sue, what time were you thinking?

      I totally understand why you would not comfortable. I would not be either. It’s sort of impromptu because I’m on the southshore for the week but even I will have Mac drop me off because I don’t like to have anything to drink and then drive. And I do plan on a glass of wine 🙂

  29. Has anyone heard any peepers yet? I recall through the yrs. hearing them in March. Prob’ly still too cold for them. I love hearing them but where we live I have never heard them.

    1. I have not heard them yet either rainshine. It will be soon though, once we get to that first 70 degree day and warm night. I did see the first few bugs out last night around my outside light. That’s one thing i do not miss is bugs!

    2. Everything’s delayed by several weeks, I think, including peepers. I dipped my hand into the Charles the other day. It was very, very cold. I mean mid to upper 30s cold, I think.

      1. Yikes, waaay too cold for frogs to start coming up from their mud pits and start mating and laying eggs. Tadpoles are a long ways off

    3. We don’t have them here. I’ll ask my daughter but I suspect you are right that it is still too cold.

    4. I haven’t heard any yet, but have seen a lot of bugs 🙂 Just last night, I killed 3 ants in my family room – a sure sign of early spring and wet ground at my house!

  30. Thanks for the replies. I don’t miss the bugs, either! But I love the sound of peepers. And I guess after this winter it’s no surprise that spring flora and fauna will be delayed.

  31. There is a wood trail outside my work I walk a few times a day. Yesterday I saw my first snake and a butterfly. This morning a few bugs zoomed by but I don’t know what type they were. A few areas of the woods are heavily shaded and still had compressed snow and ice…all gone now and the remaining mud is quickly going away to. Say what you will, but I for one am garaging the snow blower 🙂

  32. Thank you TK for all you do and put into this blog. I also want to thank everyone else for making this blog such an awesome weather tool and experience. As long as I can remember I’ve always enjoyed following the weather, so when my request to become a member of this fine blog was accepted, I was elated! I can’t thank everyone enough for making WHW the incredible blog that it is! I also feel like I know many of you, without never having had the opportunity to actually meet in person, but I do hope for that to change soon! Have a great day all 🙂

  33. Frogs are after crickets. had not heard any crickets yet so its going to be a while. I did see my first hornet

    1. Most of the crickets you hear don’t begin to fiddle until mid to late July, actually. They do that fiddling until around Halloween.

      And, we don’t generally hear from the (bull) frogs until summer.

      It’s the peepers and bees we usually hear and see by now. You saw a hornet, so bees are not far away. They instinctively know when to come, avoiding harsh frosts. The fact that you saw a hornet suggests no more harsh frosts.

  34. Note, bees have not made an appearance, either. Maybe south of here they have, but in Boston I have not seen one yet. That is late. Usually, you’ll see bees around by the last week of March, and often earlier.

    1. 59 degrees out!! not sure it’s this mild everywhere, I’m sure the immediate coast is cooler 🙂

  37. After a couple weeks, now that my snowdrops are starting to droop and entering their “final” phase, today my crocuses are coming up and are absolutely beautiful. 🙂

    Hopefully, by months end or the very first week of May, the tulips will then come up. It is likely going to be a late, slow spring ahead. I have seen very few trees even swelling let alone budding. Most look just as “dormant” as they did in February.

    As much as I enjoy the fall and especially the winter snows, I also love seeing the different phases of the flowers and trees during the course of spring into the start of summer. 🙂

    1. I so agree with regard to new birth. My crocuses are about past. The daffodils are full and close to bloom. I have two tulips that have survived from before our purchase of the house in 1979 and they usually make an appearance in may. Joshua is right that we are late. I know I’ve said that but I marked on my calendar that the daffodils bloomed march 13 last year. They are a full month later than they have been in years. BUT still about two weeks earlier than was always typical.

  39. Regarding kids activities these days, at least in my neighborhood of Dorchester, even in the middle of summer, there are very few if any kids playing in the streets or any location for that matter. The ice cream truck will stop and ring and ring his bell, but never a kid in sight. I don’t know how they make any money. Back in my day, it was totally the opposite, most side streets had dozens of kids playing during the daylight into the early evening hours. As for the ice cream truck, there was plenty of business…long lines would quickly form and the truck would be in the spot for a good 10 minutes or more.

    I also would like to mention that even during winter and spring vacations, the streets in my neighborhood are deserted of kids as welll. Do they literally just sit around indoors all week?

    2. I think it’s a few things besides video games…

      1. In most cases both parents work now and kids are usually in after school programs or daycare/babysitting during the summer. Growing up all the Moms were home and there were tons of kids out
      2. The days of staying out until the street lights came on have been replaced with a fear of predators out there lurking. Most kids have to be within sight distance of their parents.
      3. Maybe in small cases, but the media has put it into peoples’ heads the sun is evil and will kill you with its harmful rays so indoors is safe 🙂

      1. Also there is – in my opinion – an irrational fear of getting hurt these days (i.e. so much safety things are boring). We never wore helmets on bikes…and used to seek out the biggest rock cliff to jump off. Not saying that is smart, but I think the idea of someone breaking a bone or fracturing something is such a big deal now then it was then. I have 3 sprained ankles, three broken fingers, and a fractured wrist on my list of injuries.

  40. I have learned a lot from this blog, and especially that in the spring there is a definite contrast in terms of flowering inland vs. coast.

    Vicki, you mentioned above that your crocuses are on the way out and your daffodils are starting to bloom. In my case, the snowdrops are still alive but winding down and my crocuses literally just started coming up today. As for my daffodils, only the leaves are just barely up. It will likely be another week or more before I see them depending on temps. I don’t expect the tulips until at least the end of the month. We will see.

  41. 55 here. Highest it has been so far today. I am outside picking up twigs and branches from recent wind. Snow shovels are going in the shed on April 12.

  45. Charlie… Since this was an open discussion for all to see, I will reply here.

    You know me well enough to know I don’t like conflict. I don’t make enemies. I don’t consider you an enemy. I’ve enjoyed many of the contributions you have made to the blog, and when I felt it has gotten out of control I have pointed out things (not just from you but anybody) that I thought crossed the line.

    There really isn’t anything more to add, other than you were not being bullied by me. I’m not sure if that is what you meant. But I would never do what I am so against. I poke, and joke from time to time as any of us do here. If something is taken badly, or crosses a line, I would expect a person to point it out, in public or private depending on the situation and their preference. I would also do the same, as I have in the past.

    I have already pointed out the comments and posts that I had a problem with, so there’s no need to repeat that. I have also stated everything that needs to be stated (for now anyway) so there is no need for email. It’s all done with if you simply blog within the guidelines.

    I don’t expect everybody to get along perfectly here. With any “community” there will always be conflict and disagreement. It’s how we choose to handle it that matters. I’m not going to delete you, and you are free to post. Just please keep it civil. And of course that applies to everybody that posts. It’s well known that it is all I ever ask. I don’t expect everybody to be best friends. We all learn to coexist.

    As far as moderation goes, I’ll be having a couple of moderators besides myself watching for any messages that cross the line (and this is not singling you out, just the blog as a whole). Generally there are no problems with this. I just want to make sure it never gets to that point. Based on my moderation and theirs (under my guidance) any messages that I feel cross the line will likely be deleted. It’s the easiest way.

    So that should be the end of that part of things.

    In reply to your statement about people naturally disliking cold: In some ways you are correct. Obviously cold is uncomfortable to the human body, as is extreme heat. But when you get down to it, like any living creature on the planet, we learn to adapt to our environment. The details of this vary of course. If we were not able to adapt, then the population of Scandinavia would be zero, or close to it.

    We also have the ability, unlike some inhabitants of Earth, to relocated to a place more desirable to our comfort. Some of us choose to stay where we are and find comfort in the ways available to us.

    When I say I love winter and cold weather, you know what I am referring to. Of course I’m not about to go dance around in zero degree weather with shorts and flip flops on. Yes that would be damn uncomfortable. But when I go out in such conditions, I make due as best I can to cope with the cold. Believe me, living in this part of the world is not self torture, at least from my perspective.

    That is all. Have a good evening. 🙂

  46. There is a big difference in the landscape from south of Providence to north of Boston, but yes a lot is behind schedule from many previous years, I do notice from around providence southward a more distinct maroon coloring of the trees, and even saw a dandy lion today in Attleboro, like I’ve said at the same time my clients in Uxbridge or Douglas have snow in a few shady sections, big contrast across just 30-40 miles, have a good night 🙂

  47. Boston temp took a dive 11 degrees from 54 to 43 when the wind picked up out of the east.

    1. I was very surprised that Boston made it to 54 today. It never felt really warm to me at all. Not bone chilling mind you, but I still needed my winter coat, hat and gloves (minus sweather) while waiting for the T and walking but that is just me. However, most people I noticed still had typical winter outfits as well. I may wear my sweater (last time?) tomorrow underneath.

  48. The latest CPC is back with below normal temps and above normal precip through and now a bit beyond mid-month. Yesterday it appeared that the cold may be retreating…not the case for now anyway.

    Taking the CPC verbatim, a snow event is still plausible, at the very least a close call chilly rain.

    **Also Pete says up to 3/4 inch of rain possible for Friday/early Saturday and 72! for next Thursday. Fortunately the early weekend system is progressive.

    1. It looks like Pete is using the exaggerated version of the GFS for the Thursday forecast next week. I am going to be my conservative self and go 58 for now, which you can see on the blog I just posted. 🙂

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