The Week Ahead

56 Comments

3:04AM

High pressure exits to the northeast and low pressure approaches from the southwest today spreading a shield of cloudiness into southeastern New England. By tonight, a warm front will approach and send a batch of rain across the region. Low pressure will pass west of the region early Tuesday then head down the St. Lawrence Valley, first dragging the warm front through the area then sweeping a cold front west to east. Rain will diminish to showers as the warm air arrives, then drier air will sweep in behind the cold front later Tuesday, which will be a fairly mild day. A shot of chilly air will wait until a secondary front crosses the region Wednesday with some passing clouds and a gusty wind. It won’t take long for this shot of chilly air to pass and a southwesterly flow will develop on Thursday, which will start chilly but end warmer. A cold front will approach the region Friday causing some rain showers. The timing of this front remains uncertain several days in advance, so the temperature as well as sky/weather forecast is somewhat low confidence at this time. It looks like the front will push through far enough for fair and cooler weather Saturday and milder weather Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s, coolest near the coast. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms during the morning then scattered lighter showers midday. Clearing mid to late afternoon. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 59.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 44. High 61.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 56.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 63.

56 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. TK, thank you. I think we might be looking at more than an inch overnight, and maybe the Sox game will be rained out before it begins.

    1. I think the sox could use a rain out to wash away the dirt that was “swept” in their faces over the weekend

  6. Thank you TK.

    Question for you.

    In forecasting high temperatures for a day, do the Mets actually look at a model’s
    projected high temperature and GO with that? OR do they just take that under
    advisement and go with their own meteorological experience?

    Speaking of experience, based on your expert analysis we see here, I’d say you obtained the basics in college, but the wealth of your knowledge came from your extensive work experience. yes? no?

    1. Answer to question 1: The only time I use a model temp forecast is if I think it is going to nail it.

      Answer to question 2: 100% yes!

    2. Very interesting and as OS said a compromise. Great to see. Thanks for posting. What a difference moving from 15 minutes to an hours warning for tornadoes a one would make.

      1. I read a few comments after the article. One in particular echoed my thoughts. While i think this is great, it is flawed in a few areas (isn’t everything flawed that’s run by politics? lol). I wish there was more social and human behavioral science research done on tornado warnings before stating a goal of an hour lead time for a tornado. Sometimes i think more lead time does more harm than good. What if the warning is now an hour and say only 10-15% of those actually come to fruition? Will people become complacent and not take warnings seriously? Hell, most people dont take them seriously now. I thought that’s what a “watch” was for, to alert people that conditions are favorable. It’s very sad and unfortunate when lives and property is lost due to tornados, but IMO there is ample info out there in ample time to alert people in 99% of cases. Its the public’s responsibility to heed the warnings, but sometimes, no matter how long u give people and how much info there is, people will still chose to ignore it. Not saying this will not be money well spent, but i think a bit more research should have been done to learn WHY some people dont take warnings seriously

        1. Good point Ace. You are so right, what will people
          do with an hour warning? and as you say if most of
          the time nothing happens, then what good is the warning?

          It’s a really tough situation.

          Given that, I think better warnings are still good.

          They’ll figure it out. Let’s get the technology first, then figure out how to utilize it. 😀

          1. Totally agree with that last point. First thing is to get the technology and make sure it works 🙂

  8. Thanks TK! Happy to see we shouldn’t be contending with any severe weather on our jaunt to NYC on Saturday. That is the last thing I need!

      1. We are driving. Their flight lands at 3:30 so we are leaving early in the morning and will hopefully do some plane watching since it is Sam’s favorite thing to do.

  12. Hey Chahlie 🙂 Gots a crabgrass/weed pre-emergent question for u. I know now is a good time to apply, however, my lawn is very young. I planted seed last fall but it was kinda late. The grass came up well but i was only able to mow once (and it wasnt even really that high) before the frost and cold stopped it in its tracks. Its starting to green up and show signs of life though since the weekend. Can i apply a crabgrass pre-emergent treatment on it or should i wait till ive mowed it once or twice?

    1. Apply a straight fertilizer, mow it twice, in 4 weeks apply a fertilizer crabgrass reducer 🙂

      2. Would a lawn starter fertilizer be ok? I have an unopened bag from last year that has been kept indoors.

  13. I dont know if the upper level dynamics are still strong in SE Georgia and FL. If they are, watch out the next few hrs. They’ve seen some sun and the temps are in the 80s, with dewpoints of 65-72F.

  14. Thanks, TK.

    Even ‘though there is limited sun – to me, anyway, today was the first day it actually felt almost warm out. Sudbury is 58 degrees now – there is still a chill in the air, ‘though. And I don’t smell spring in the air yet. We might get some thunder, tonight. If we do – first thunder of the spring!

    John – hope you and your son are feeling better.

    Sue – have a safe and fun trip.

    Sorry I don’t get on that much – so I try to read and respond the best I can.

      1. No problem! Her name is Princess. She is a lively and lovable little girl. I don’t have Facebook (so many of my fds. and relatives say I should have it but I don’t – at times I get tempted but I don’t think I ever will.) However, my husband is on Facebook and his cover page has a picture of our kitty. She is mainly all white w/a calico tail and some orange above each eye.

        I am glad you are enjoying your time on the South Shore – and so near the ocean – I am jealous! 🙂

  15. Car thermometer was reading 64 and it felt like 64.

    Really nice out there now. Best 1st class A#1 day so far this year!!!!

  16. By the way, I forgot to mention that this morning we had 3 turkeys walk through our yard; shortly followed by another turkey with his tail all fanned out. He seemed to be following the other turkeys. Made me kind of hungry – thoughts of Thanksgiving, etc. – no, not really!! 🙂

  17. Got to 61.3 degrees for a high today, clouds have rolled in, temp currently at 55.1 degrees 😉

  18. SNOW PILE UPDATE!
    As of 3:30PM Monday April 7 (I just got off the phone with my brother).

    The pile is 9 feet long, 4 feet wide, and 17 inches high. Shrinking fast, but still hanging on!

    It’s going to get attacked full on tonight and tomorrow by rain and mild air.

      1. lol, its ok, i had easter sunday (April 20th), so unless we add to the pile, it will be gone way before then

  19. I’ll see if I can grab a photo of the pile in the next day or 2 before it’s gone. Not sure I will have a chance to go by there. Should have done it yesterday. I was 1/4 mile away from his house.

    1. The bottom of the pile is the packed ice part of it, so that will melt a little more slowly. But some of that will depend on how much it gets undermined by water in tonight’s / tomorrow’s rain with temps in the upper 40s to near 60. You do indeed have a good chance.

  22. TK – The 8-14 day CPC outlook has below-well below normal temps for much of the CONUS including NE. Even though 70+ temps are advertised for next Monday, will it turn significantly cooler (relatively speaking) thereafter?

    1. There is more chilly air building in Canada that will probably be paying a visit. Just because we get a warm day doesn’t mean the warmth is here to stay, especially around here, in the Springtime. 🙂

  23. this would have been a great day if there was more sun. I played some basketball after i did 3 sections of math and even then one of those sections I did out on the porch

    1. I think it was a great day even with faded sun in the afternoon. Just a shadow from high & middle clouds. 🙂 Rain held off for the daylight hours which allowed outside activity easily. 🙂

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