Big Diurnal

155 Comments

7:07AM

A big diurnal today for many areas. What’s a diurnal? In weather we use it to label the change in temperature from morning low to afternoon high. Today, some places that dipped into the upper 20s this morning will rebound to the lower 60s this afternoon – about a 40 degree diurnal.

Nothing major to change in this forecast from the previous one, other than to keep it a little more cloudy on Friday as a cold front sags through the region and hangs up near the South Coast. Once low pressure rides along this with a shot of wet weather Friday night and early Saturday, the rest of the weekend will be dry. Still looks like clouds arrive later Sunday ahead of a warm front which leads in a warm/windy air mass for Monday. Transition back to cooler air toward the middle of next week will likely result in some wet weather. But it all starts off with a bright day today (until clouds arrive late) with a gusty wind developing as milder air arrives.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny most of day, increasing high clouds late. Highs 60-65, 50s South Coast. Wind SW under 10 MPH early then increasing to 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers developing. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early especially southeastern MA to RI. Highs around 60, cooler South Coast. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then partial clearing. Low 45. High 56.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 51. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

155 thoughts on “Big Diurnal”

  1. SNOW PILE UPDATE!

    As of midnight there were just under 2 square feet of snow pile left in a total of 4 pieces. So with today’s weather, the pile will vanish today (10th).

    I will pass along the official word that it is gone when I get it.

    So unofficially it looks like it’s about to be haterain guessing the date correctly. That should become official in the next few hours. 🙂

    1. Hey I guessed the 10th also, so what if I’m a month off I got one part right. Congrats haterain you were spot on. Time for “when our first snow of the year hits us” contest. Just in case nature is not done with us this season we should make it after July 4th.

  2. Thanks TK !

    Congrats to haterain !!

    Today’s sun angle and length of day now match September 1st.

  3. I bought two Clematis vines, and was told to keep them indoors until it is above 40 degrees around the clock. I see tonight will be in the 30s, but the rest of the week looks warmer. What’s the consensus… OK to plant them outside Easter weekend?

    Looking at TK’s forecast, I see a low of 35 next Wednesday… I’m in Quincy, so part of the urban heat island. Fingers crossed we have seen our last frost here!

    The Clematis are getting long – I’m concerned they will start attaching themselves to the house’s interior…

    1. Picturing your clematis attaching inside made me laugh. We have ivy. I took some from my mom’s garden about 30 years ago. Just a tiny bit. It has now taken over. But the worse is that it found a break in the foundation and grew into and through our bedroom baseboard heater. I hadn’t seen it. My then three year old granddaughter was visiting one day and announced that “Nana, I think you should weed your bedroom”

    2. Amy, you should plant your “potted clematis” by the last week of April. Clematis thrive in the cool, moist spring soil. As long as the soil is workable – plant away! It is most important that you properly prepare the plant site for a healthy, thriving, beautiful clematis! Good luck 🙂

  4. Thank you TK for the update.

    Good morning.

    Chilly this morning. I awoke at 7AM to 33.3 degrees. I left the house at 7:45
    and it was 37.9 and climbing rapidly. Eric Fisher predicted 65 for Boston today
    and I believe we make that easily. We shall see.

    What an absolutely beautiful day today. LOVE IT!!!!

    About time to break out the fishing gear. Just a bit too much going on around the
    house to have any time at the moment. Another week or 2. 😀

    1. Thanks OS for sharing your March 1956 experience yesterday. Later I will share a story of my aunt’s experience of that month. 🙂

      1. Dreadful and brutal indeed. Even looks cold in Wilmington, NC !! Anything under 70F down there and I’ll hop into the car and continue further south until I find warmth.

        Hoping that 7-8 days out, this does not come to happen.

  6. Well, a lot of meteorlogical work went into figuring out when the snow pile would go. I would like to thank, oh nevermind different speech. It looks like a nice string of weather coming up. It sure is nice starting to see lawns begin to green up.

  7. When I was growing up, my aunt used to tell the story of when she spent the night at the big fire station in Brookline Village (it is still there today) during one of those March 1956 snowstorms. She worked in Brookline at the time and she was coming home from work when the trackless trolley she was on got stuck right in front of the fire station. The firefighters came out and offered the passengers shelter for the night. The next morning, my aunt had to walk home to Roxbury as there was no public transit…or anything else for that matter. In spite of the experience, she always enjoyed telling the story over and over. 🙂

  8. I appended a paragraph to the start of the blog and changed the title. This was intended originally before a net outage hit. All fixed now!

  9. Given the recent performance of a once better model, I will hold off on buying into that ECMWF forecast for now.

    1. NWS mentions the chance of wintry precip returning to SNE sometime next week. They have been on that track for the past couple of days now in their discussions.

  10. If the EURO is right that will be one impressive cold snap for April. Given its performance I am not buying it. It will cool if behind the front but not as much as the EURO is showing. Don’t see much instability with the front coming through so don’t expect thunderstorm activity rather just some rainfall around here.

  11. OS didn’t mention it above the 0z Euro snowmap on eurowx.com shows 3-5″ of snow for Boston metro on Wednesday and 12″+ in portions of northern New England. Not saying I believe it!

  13. Just for the Record, the CMC, GFS and FIM all have NO SNOW for the same
    period.

    Conclusion, the EURO is full of CRAP!!!!!

  14. The EURO seems to have had major issues off and on all winter and now into the spring. I wonder if something is done to either fix the issues or somehow revert it back to the previous version before the “update.” System restore!

  15. My how the mighty EURO has fallen. A year ago we would be paying attention to the model if it was showing accumulating snow now its believe when we see it. The EURO’s only support is from the Almanac calling for a major east coast storm during that time with wet snow for parts of New England.

  16. The euro lol, I’m not sure why it has been even mentioned, it’s a clunk of shattering poo, throw it away, it’s junk, moving on, looks like a warm weekend and a warm week ahead, having below normal temps in mid April is no problem, just thankfully it’s not winter below averages. 🙂

    Sunny temp is akready 56 degrees 🙂

  17. I’d be more bullish for that late season snow if at least 4 reliable models had it and then carried the threat consistently. So far, not getting on board any snow trains. We will watch it though.

      2. My dad took it every weekend as a youth. Before that he would hitchhike. I rode it many times around the North Conway area when it was used for just sightseeing. It was started up 10 or so years ago to take skiers north. I didn’t realize it had stopped again.

        1. If you don’t, which one would you put in it’s place?

          You are disgusted with the NAM so it can’t be that.

          I don’t think there is a 4th RELIABLE model.

          UKMET? I don’t think so.

          Certainly NOT
          JMA or NAVGEM or even DGEX

          Oh wait a minute, it’s the CASDM! 😆 😈


          CHARLIE’S SUPER DUPER ATTLEBORO MODEL

  18. SNOW PILE UPDATE!
    11:45AM… 3 of the 4 fragments are gone. The last one is 9x8x2.5 inches and melting rapidly in the sun.

    1. I am amazed that my smaller pile took as long to melt as your much larger one. I had a 6″x 3″ x 2 this morning. It’s down to about 3×1.5×1 now.

  21. Hmmm, we’re totally trashing the Euro and the WPC is embracing the it.

    I don’t quite understand that. Let’s see IF the 12Z Euro continues with some
    consistency here. To me, it’s been a total flipflopapalooza! 😆

  22. Bastradi paraphrasing here the storm will turn back west and the models will correct itself due to a fujawara effect.
    Referring to blizzard that missed us.
    I wonder what Joe is tweeting about now for next week’s storm threat.

    1. 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿 😆 😈 👿

      1. OGHT OH!!!!!!

        12Z CMC

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

        http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=TT850&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

        ALTHOUGH Meteogram shows NO SNOW for Boston.

        Those precipitation maps show Previous 12 hour precipitation, so even though 850MB temps look favorable, according to the
        Meteogram, the bulk of the precip falls prior to it getting cold
        enough aloft.

        That being said, this is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY TOO CLOSE
        for COMFORT!!!

  24. From my brother David:

    “At approximately 1PM today, Winter succumbed to Spring. And the winner is April 10 2014. Congratulations whoever you are!!”

    So there you have it. 🙂

    haterain is your 1st annual snow pile disappearance contest winner. 🙂

    1. Did they guess that exact date or was it the one closest? Well done in any event…I was ahead by 16 days.

  25. JJ, Euro still only out to hour 84 on eurowx.com but I am reading on another forum that the trough looks more amplified/less progressive and it is showing some significant snow accumulations inland.

    1. Perhaps not, BUT there is no denying there is MUCH SUPPORT
      from both the CMC and the GFS at this point.

      I needs to be watched Carefully now.

  27. I am reading from folks who have weatherbell that the Euro is quite entertaining. 5″ as far south as Leesburg, Virginia and snow in the Chesapeake Bay. Yeah, that might happen!

  29. Through 144 hours, a swath of 1-2 feet of snow from Upstate NY into VT, NH, ME. 6″ amounts into NW CT. Not done yet.

    2. he he he
      😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

    1. Holy moly! If that even comes close to fruition, people will be skiing at Stowe on the 4th of july

  34. While you guys are talking about snow piles melting, I’ve got a row of geraniums 8ft 2 rows that I planted back on April 3rd, they receive sun after 11am till 6ish. I wonder if they will make it, like I’ve said before it’s more of an experiment, will see,

    Pool opening this weekend, looks like mid 60’s and sunny 🙂

    1. I think people wanted to know how the contest ended. And I’m allergic to flowers. 😛

  35. I know you may turn a few heads when you always say this time every year about opening your pool. It looks like though you may be the smart one . According to an email I received from my pool company opening your pool in April could save you a lot of money now versus opening say Memorial Day. Opening now you use less chemicals to clear the pool and the cooler temps help to prevent alge. So well done. Even with that information I still won’t open mine this early.

    1. I’d open a pool now if I had one. The season is far too short to enjoy. But then I’m at the beach in winter ……well technically spring

  38. He always seems to play well the first few days of the Masters. 3 shots behind first round leader Bill Haas. Phil Mickelson who is my favorite golfer plus 4 8 shots back. 7th and 15th holes really hurt him today triple bogey on 7 and double bogey on 15.

  39. Gusting into the 30s and temps at 47. I need it to drop to 40. We arrived back and the fridge had stopped working. Lost everything in it. Ugh. I want to put a few things outside.

      1. Thanks Charlie. We didn’t have a lot in the fridge. But had a huge tray of chicken parm from corner cafe down here in the freezer. They will reimburse.

  44. Anyone who did the free 7-day trial for eurowx.com, did u get an email recently about a deal going on for this weather package?

    http://www.f5data.com/special/index.php

    I know it seems like a lot of money but it’s for a lifetime account. And you get even more of a discount when 2 people sign up together.

    1. Interesting – no, I didn’t get that email and I signed up for two separate 7 day trials under two different emails before biting the bullet and buying the monthly subscription. I will probably let it expire on the 15th though and wait till next winter before starting up the monthly subscription again.

      1. From what i was seeing from iCyclone on facebook, the models were all over the place with this. I dont think any model got this one right.

    1. I don’t have a lot of experience with the NAM regarding tstorms in TX but from observing it somewhat .. it has tended to over-forecast them, rain-wise, in the past.

      The NAM as it is now was not really in existence when I was working as a senior agricultural met. in the private sector, so I never got to learn much about those specifics of it regarding that and some other areas.

  47. Nice and mild out there today. The warmest and most comfortable its felt being outside since last fall. Sun in and out but i bet if there was full sun it would break 70

  49. Is it the passage of this little ripple of low pressure thats going to turn the winds off the ocean ……

    I’m looking all the way to Burlington, VT and see westerly surface winds.

    Still looks like a few more hrs of heating before clouds arrive late afternoon. I think I say a 68F and 69F around the Merrimack Valley (maybe Bedford ??)

  50. I’m outside in a tee shirt and what are these little black fly things. I don’t remember inviting them to the party

          1. Absolutely. Just downloaded an app that shows what boats are off the coast. It is amazing how little it takes to amuse 🙂

  51. 68 here in Downtown Hingham now. I was going to put my snow blower this weekend but maybe I’ll wait a week. Of course if anyone wants snow next week I’ll put it away tomorrow.

  53. Hi all!

    Bit of a crazy day. Haven’t had the chance to write up a new blog yet, but by the end of the afternoon hopefully I shall.

    Going to be mobile for a while, and you know the rules: No blogging and driving. 😛

    I’ll let you know when it’s been updated!

  54. 12z ECMWF is good for a laugh, if nothing else. 12-15″ of snow on Thursday, anyone?

    Hit 70 here 🙂

  57. Here is the 12z Euro snowmap (total snow for the run/all of this falling next week):

    http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k248/vertum1/Capture_zps39b511ed.jpg

    It’s enough for 6″+ west of the CT River and north of the NH border but not much of anything for the rest of SNE. This snow (if it comes at all) would come Wednesday on the back side of the frontal passage. This type of snow is always suspect, especially in April.

    The change in the 12z Euro is that it brings a second coastal storm up the coast on Thursday, after the frontal passage. Track is favorable but the upper air and surface temps are no longer cold enough to support anything but a cold rain.

    WxWatcher, I am not sure where you are seeing 12-15″ but I assume a different mapping source as Eurowx.com has pretty much nothing for most of southeast New England.

    One thing is for sure – we are going to have one heck of a temperature drop between Monday and Tuesday night (possibly from 80 to 30F in many areas!). Welcome to Spring in New England.

    1. That’s very weird. My weatherbell.com maps show 12-15 inches for our whole region, assuming a 10:1 ratio. TK may have to clear that up later because I can’t imagine why there’s such a difference.

  58. 67.5 here and Wunder changed its dashboard and I do not like it. I can no longer find the latest high wind speed. Arghhhhhh

    1. I use Weatherbug’s webpage – they have stations at two schools in walking distance to my house.

      1. I’ll check it out. Wunder has a station about a half mile as the crow flies from my house. And just added one on Humarock.

        1. 🙂 I actually don’t use the app on my computer, but I have it on my phone 🙂 I use the webpage on my computer.

  59. It reached 72.2 degrees here today, currently 69.7, it’s not only beginning to feel or smell like spring, but it’s beginning to look like spring, a lot of trees etc have begun to change, just over the next few days the landscape is going to change quite a bit, good day everyone 🙂

  62. I do agree with the big temp swing from as high as 80 Monday to as low as the upper 20s Thursday morning. I do not agree with the Euro’s snowstorm midweek. It’s an outlier and has done poorly of late. It has a long way to go to regain my trust.

    1. TK – Do you also agree with the CPC outlook of below normal temps for the northern tier of states (including NE) through and beyond Easter?

      1. I can still see that being the case. There’s some pretty chilly air just across the border and some means to bring it into parts of the North. We’ll see how much gets into New England. We will get some middle next week. Pattern is less stable than the winter one so I am a little hesitant to jump into all below normal. As we see now, we’ve had some mild to warm weather to start of April for much of the region.

    1. FWIW

      The good ole Wundermap has QUITE a SLUG of snow for SNE!!!

      Hard to tell totals, but it is clearly enough to cause a MESS!!!

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