The Week Ahead

73 Comments

8:19PM

The outlook for the coming week was essentially done in the previous blog, but here I will recap that, adjust for timing for a later frontal approach (lessening the chance of showers/storms during Tuesday), and adding a day 7 (next Sunday).

High pressure overhead provides a mostly clear and cool night tonight with only some high clouds drifting down from the north on the east side of an upper level high pressure ridge center to the west of the region. The surface high that has been overhead will settle to the south and southeast of the area Monday and Tuesday, allowing for a warm southwesterly flow to become established. This will provide a taste of Summer, especially away from the South Coast where the air will be modified by the cooler ocean waters nearby. A cold front will approach the region late Tuesday but should hold back long enough to  keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms away until sometime Tuesday night, possibly late. A later arrival of the front would also diminish the chance of stronger storms. This front will be in the area early Wednesday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms, but should start to push offshore during the day with less showers, but lots of clouds lingering and cooler air arriving. Upper level low pressure may hold clouds as the dominant factor Thursday and even into Friday as it is slow to exit, then later Friday it gets out of here and again we set up a ridge to the west, trough to the east pattern. This may allow some additional cloudiness to spill into the region from Canada for part of next weekend – a typical late Spring / early Summer set-up.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 40s inland valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind light SE to S.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 60s South Coast to lower 80s interior MA/NH. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of nighttime showers/thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, cooler South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely AM. Chance of showers PM. Low 58. High 68.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 72.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 73, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 55. High 75, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 75, cooler coast.

73 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Superb day, was in central NH for most of it and it was about 73F and mostly sunny. Perfect !

  2. Thanks TK.
    Tom I agree it was superb day. It was anything but superb 3 years ago on this date when the Springfield tornado happened.
    As I said on the previous blog its hard to believe its been 3 years and I remember that day quite well. The morning had showers and storms moving through as the warm front went through. The skies cleared and added fuel to the fire. The ingredients all came together for a severe weather outbreak. CAPE values where the tornado struck were 4,000 lift index values -8 to -10 and helicity values in the 150 to 300 range. This was the first tornado in New England that I saw on live television as it would cross the CT River. Hopefully something like this does not happen again but it goes to show that even here in New England we do get tornadoes.

    1. JimmyJames. I had to think really hard when you said it had been three years. Time goes by far too quickly and that was a horrendous day. I suspect most if not all of us remember it vividly.

  4. Thanks tk. I thought it was a nice weekend. Yesterday was a tad on the cool side and as we were leaving the concert around 10 it had got really cool . Overall not bad.

    1. We have had one of the nicer Springs (April & May) in recent memory.
      Dry and mild for the 2 month period, even though the back half of May was pretty cool.

      1. Tk it sleeted here the 1st week of April, and it’s been freezing since nov, average highs should be 80+ degrees for June 3rd, I see more below average temps this week similar to last week, where is this coming from? You blame the media for hyping the cold but it’s our own local stations that do it too, The word is all we can hope for is a mild fall and winter 😉

      2. Tk,

        Sorry I can’t agree. I personally think it has been a miserable
        Spring, especially living near the coast! 😀

        1. Everyone and I mean everyone is not saying Ohhh this winter and spring weren’t bad lmao, that’s crazy!!! If you read tk’s titles the past 5 months it also spells out cold winter winter and spring l, good day tk

        2. OS we were on the coast literally for all but 6 days in April. For only 4 days we were there, we couldn’t go out due to rain and wind. The majority we had breakfast outside. In many cases we were wearing tee shirts if not shorts. We thought it was a great month….including my girls who do not like cold

          1. How is that possible Vickie if “everyone, and I mean everyone” thinks it was a horrible spring? 🙂

            1. ok…gonna throw my heavily devalued two cents in here. I think overall the spring has been pretty decent. Yeah we’ve had some cool (to cold) dismal days and the east wind has been prevalent (it’s supposed to be in the spring as normally the high pressure systems are weaker than they are in the other seasons). To me (and my almost 60 years) this is what spring is normally like. We’ve been somewhat spoiled by a couple of recent early springs and summers but do we also remember 2009 (I think)…far worse than this spring. Just my opinion…now I’ll step off the platform and duck while the rotten fruit is thrown my way 🙂

              1. I agree and they don’t throw rotten fruit – it’s actually pretty fresh and tasty 😉

  6. Nearing 60F at 8am …… appearing to have a chance at full June sunshine and summit of Mt. Washington is 45F.

    Should be interesting to see where the afternoon inland temps end up.

    I wonder if the coastline has enough wind to hold a seabreeze off ?

    1. Not a chance. That EAST wind has been extremely persistent this Spring!

      I’m guessing Logan flips to an East wind sometime today.

      Currently the wind is from 230 Degrees (SW) at about 9 mph. Like to see that
      up over 10 mph to prevent a sea breeze. We shall see.

      Yesterday’s high at Logan was 66 while inland areas reached the upper 70s.
      Made it to 71 in JP.

  7. Thanks TK – glorious start to a late spring day. No kindergarten classes today so kids were out playing just about as soon as they woke up which to me is always the sign of the summer to come!!

    1. Tis a beautiful day to be sure!

      WILL Logan reach 80 before a sea breeze.

      We should take a poll.

      I say NO. 😀

  8. 9 AM Observation from Logan:

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

    Last Updated: Jun 2 2014, 8:54 am EDT
    Mon, 02 Jun 2014 08:54:00 -0400
    Weather: A Few Clouds
    Temperature: 69.0 °F (20.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 46.0 °F (7.8 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 44 %
    Wind: Southwest at 6.9 MPH (6 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1022.2 mb

    Note: SW at 6 Mph.

    With that 53 Degree ocean out there, 6 mph isn’t going to cut it. Wind will be East
    in no time at all. Need that SouthWest wind to pick up immediately if not sooner!!!

  9. I also agree nothing against what your saying tk. Am temps in the 30s more than once, hail storms not typical spring weather.

  11. 10 AM at Logan. 73

    021354 FEW250 10 73 48 2605

    Wind from 260 Degrees at 5 knots. Yikes, any minute now, unless the land breeze
    really kicks up in a hurry, the Refrigerator door to the East shall open up wide. 😀

    1. 11 AM Logan Obs

      021454 SCT250 10 75 50 2005

      Wind from 200 Degrees, almost due South. Still barely holding on for
      the race to 80.

  12. 59.4F with a dewpoint of 57.6F out at the Boston Harbor Buoy (16 nautical miles out)

    The sun is showing its strength and is clearly evaporating some moisture off of the ocean.

    I think the seabreeze is about to transform, from spring chill to more of a mild, more humid effect.

    1. Tom,

      I cannot agree. NOT with current ocean temperatures of:

      Water Temperature: 54.1 °F (12.3 °C)

      That still represents a CHILL in my mind. 😀

  13. Mt. Washington temp has soared to 57F. If you add (6.5F for every 1,000ft) or about 39F, thats 96F ………

  15. Oh I hate it when I’m wrong. Will I be WRONG very shortly.

    Noon obs from Logan, up to 77 wind South at 9 knots. Is that enough?

    021554 SCT250 10 77 50 1909

    1. I believe Logan hits 80 . That breeze coming in is a warm one. Also humidity is going to start creeping up . I love it and I want more and hotter weather please. This is more like it.

  17. We should only have to work on rainy days…depressing having to come back into the office from lunch

      1. Days like today make me wish i had a job outside. Then mid-summer comes around and its 95 degrees with high humidity…

        1. Yea but nobody says that in the winter. This is are reward from being outside during the winter.

  19. Buoy harbor water temp (16 nautical miles out) has jumped to 57.6F. With an ESE wind out there gently blowing in a thin top layer of mild water, it may hit 60F before the day is out. (It jumped 2F alone in the last hour).

    Dewpoint out there is 59.6F, so if a sea breeze kicks in, watch the coastal dewpoints rise towards 55F – 60F.

    1. I thought with absolute certainty that a sea breeze would kick in at Logan!

      WRONG WRONG and WRONG again.

      Pretty stiff SW breeze holding strong.

      At this point, doesn’t look like there will be one.

      We shall see.

    2. That’s quite a jump. Really responding to the bright sunshine with high sun
      angle. As soon as a wind picks up, the warm surface water will be blown away
      and the temperature will drop back to the lower 50s. BUT, by a repeat process
      of this, eventually it does warm up.

  20. The GFS is sending signals of it being very, very warm to maybe even hot mid month. I wonder if this is a trend that will eventually drop away or if it will be seen in the coming days. ………. Its got 15C (850 temps) mid month. With sunshine, thats usually 85F-90F.

    1. Has the GFS been the go-to model this spring as well? Something tells me yes as I seem to remember the GFS nailing the weather recently and the EURO being not so great, still

      1. I think so. I can remember on a couple occasions recently reading in a weather discussion, “the ECMWF has come around to the GFS”.

  22. 3Pm still 81 at the airport with a wind from DUE SOUTH.

    It won’t get much higher, if at all, with a due South winds.
    Similar temperatures all over SNE, including 81 at Norwood and 81 at Taunton.

    Even 81 all the way out at Springfield

  23. Charlie…

    Winter was cold, no doubt.
    Snowier than normal? Yes. Astronomical amounts? No.

    As for Spring…a little poem:

    Mild and dry.
    That was Spring.
    The stats don’t lie.
    You should know,
    You’re a sports guy.

    Good day. 🙂

    1. I think a lot of times in weather, much like in sports, we get too caught up in the stats and numbers. Take Wilfork for example. He doesn’t always get on the stat sheet with high tackle numbers or a ton of sacks, but he allows other players open shots at the QB to get free to make plays cuz he takes up so much space. Same can be said in weather, in particular this spring. I understand the daily high temps were around or even slightly above average, but there are other players on the field to consider. When were those daily high temps realized? Was it in the mornings then then temps fell and the majority of the day was cool and lousy? Was the majority of the day crappy and then it cleared up late in the afternoon/evening and briefly warmed up to the daily high temp? I believe this to be the case for a lot of days this spring which is why people see this spring as being not so great. Stats dont lie, but sometimes we need to stick our heads out the window to see what its doing outside 🙂

      2. I do that every day. In fact I spend a fair amount of time out there. 🙂

        And I took that into account.

        Most days during April and May were really not that bad. I’ve lived in the same spot for 47 years and I have a whole lot of years to measure by. This year has not been nearly close to some of the worst.

        How quickly did everyone forget May 2005? I think Eric Fisher pointed that out the other day. Wow. Talk about a nasty month…..

      1. The MA State Climatologist will tell you that it was a dry Spring. What varies is the degree of dryness or wetness, depending on the departure from normal. It’s straight stats.

  24. Hmmm

    Logan at 78. Wind around to SE at 140 Degrees. Well it happened, but late enough
    that Logan was still able to eclipse 80. We’ll take it. 😀

  26. Just jumped up to 82 at the Airport as the SW kicked in again. Sea Breeze was short lived. 😀

  27. Ace good theory. And it does in fact mirror sports. As fans we expect our sports heros to be 100% all of the time or we are disappointed and boo them. That is probably as unrealistic as expecting the weather to be perfect all day every day…..no? 🙂

  28. I have to chuckle yet again, and then have an all out laugh at the following 2 items.

    Today’s high of 82 at Boston marks the 4th day of 80 or higher in the Spring of 2014.

    On June 1 2013 Boston had hit 80 or higher a grand total of………… FOUR times to date. Same as last year. Wow. 😉

    ……………………..

    Eric Fisher was interviewing a couple of kids at a field at soccer practice earlier and he was asking if they liked that it was nice and warm today compared to some of the recent cooler days we had, and one of them complained about the heat, to which Eric said (paraphrasing): “Typical New Englander. Always have to complain about something.” IT WAS PRICELESS. INSTANT CLASSIC. I love Eric Fisher’s style to the infinite degree.

  30. Good evening! Reached 82.1 degrees, tommorrow looks like close to the same weather. 🙂

  31. Today, the gradient was more westerly. Tomorrow, it will be more southerly, allowing a bit more ocean-influence on all coasts. Boston will fall shy of 80 tomorrow.

    1. I’m off tomorrow to catch up on yard work and pool area work. Already up to 15 gallons of liquid shock and still not clear but getting there.

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