We See We Saw

61 Comments

7:38PM

We’ll be seeing some up and down (seesaw) temperatures and weather during the next several days as we are now in a transitional pattern between the one we saw start in the middle of May and a new one setting up in which we will see a mostly zonal (west to east) flow across the northern US with frequent passing weather systems, but many of them weak. The coming pattern, though featuring changeable temperatures and episodes of unsettled weather, will also allow for more bouts of Summery weather, though no prolonged heat at the outset.

The changes over the next several days are expected to break down like this:

Cold front settles southward across the region tonight and becomes stationary to the southwest of southern New England Wednesday, with a cooler north to northeast wind, and a fair amount of cloudiness. There is some uncertainty as to how much low cloudiness will be present from the ocean, as we’ll be seeing the ocean moisture fighting with drier air also moving down from the north at the same time, and at the same time some mid and high level moisture from the west will add some cloudiness above any lower clouds. The fair bet is that there will be lots of clouds and very limited sun during Wednesday, though there is room for some surprise sunshine if drier air is more dominant.

By Thursday, the clouds will certainly win the battle as the front to the southwest comes back toward the region as a warm front with stronger overrunning. Though I cannot rule out some patchy light rain, most of the region will probably remain rain-free with just clouds dominating. This warm front should surge northeastward to bring wet weather into the region later Thursday night into early Friday, ending as a few showers as the warm and humid air on the other side of the warm front finally pushes in. We may end up in a fairly wide warm-sector on Friday, which may turn out to be a warm and very humid day with showers and thunderstorms holding back to the west (NY or western New England) as the cold front trailing a parent low pressure passing to the north is slow heading this way.

With some luck, and I am optimistic, the cold front will traverse southeastern New England from west to east later Friday night and early Saturday, with its band of showers and thunderstorms occurring largely during the overnight hours. As long as this front keeps moving, it looks like improving weather would arrive for the second half of Saturday and then continue through the remainder of the weekend, with a dry and warm Father’s Day on Sunday.

Looking into early next week: A taste of Summer, but an increasing risk of thunderstorms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms over southeastern MA and RI ending. Temperatures cooling into the 60s. Wind shifting to N 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 60s, coolest east-facing and north-facing shores. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light E.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of light rain. Highs middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain or showers ending southwest to northeast. Partly sunny afternoon. Mostly cloudy night with showers/thunderstorms west-east late. Low 60. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with showers/thunderstorms ending west to east. Clearing afternoon. Low 60. High 77.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 62. High 85.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 87.

61 thoughts on “We See We Saw”

    1. Watching the storm move in was fascinating from atop the tower at BWH. Macs nurse came in to watch. She said it is amazing watching a blizzard from there. And the nurses all crowd into one of the rooms facing the esplanade on July 4.

          1. If you were there next Monday, it would have been great to meet you. My Wife and I will be at BI on Monday right next door 🙂

            1. You never know. We might be there. I hope all is ok with you and Mrs North and it is just a routine visit.

              1. She needs to have her gallbladder out and soon, so we meet with surgeon Monday. She hates anything to do with the hospital but this such a routine surgery now compared to years ago.

                I am glad you had the time in April at the shore before all this started :).

                1. My sister-in-law just had hers out. She lives in CA. It is routine but I sure know why Mrs. North doesn’t like hospitals. Certainly, she is going to the best ! Please give her a hug from me. I’ll keep her and you in my thoughts and prayers!

    1. Good I could imagine they’d replace him but these stations don’t have an ounce of common sense

  6. Mr. Fisher was just on vacation for a bit. 🙂
    He’s not going anywhere…

  8. Down to 62.2 with chilly NE wind and plenty of crap clouds from the ocean. 😀

    Funny, never heard any thunder or saw any lightning with the rain today.

    1. Nothing at Bwh either OS and I moved to other side of tower. It was regally building coming in….looked impressive and poof

      1. But grandaughter had some thunder and lightening in Uxbridge. Her mom said she was jumping up and down as she approached because she was so excited. I think we have a budding weather enthusiast :).

          1. The funny part is that we have never managed to be together during a storm. She is undoubtedly aware I like them but this seems to have appeared this year when she hears we may have T&L mostly on its own. However, I am now fostering it big time!!!

  10. I didn’t find weather for Abruzzi Italy …just looked quickly….but Rome will be in 90s next few days. I suspect it may be cooler in hills of Abruzzi for Ace and his bride.

    1. Thanks JJ. Getting interesting. We shall see.

      I’ll check to see what the Euro has to say. 😀

      1. Euro NOT impressed.

        Capes about 500 except 1000 in Berkshires.

        Total totals = low

        BTW Euro has Sunday only 65-70 here, NOT 80s.

        What up with that?

  13. The front looks to be slowing down and coming in at night which should help knock down the thunderstorm intensity should thunderstorms develop. No hazardous weather outlooks from NWS for Friday nor is the area being highlighted by the SPC. GFS has been pretty consistent with the CAPE and Lift Index values for a few runs now.

    1. Yes.

      Eric Fisher and of course our TK had indicated that storms, if any, would
      come late in the evening or at night greatly reducing chances of anything
      severe. IF there is any severe it will be far Western NE and Central/Eastern NY
      and PA.

      In this case, perhaps the GFS is over cooking things. Still need to watch it just in case, but my gut says there is nothing to worry about for this one. 😀

  14. TK,

    LOOKS like the Dry air won out!!!

    You had that possibility and I for one am SO happy it panned out.
    Even though it is cool, it is beautiful out there right now. Perfectly completely
    BLUE sky here in amazing Beantown!!!!!

    1. Yet the satellite loop this morning showed lots of middle and high clouds flying in from the west. That had me worried. But dry air wins for now.

  15. Thanks TK! It is certainly a beauty out there today. My boys have their field day at school tomorrow and I am glad it will be mostly cloudy. I volunteer and it isn’t enjoyable when it is hot and humid.

  18. saw the talk of hospitals and surgery… hate them to but its nessessary and many of them are going down the crapper. Massachusetts do not know how lucky they are to have some of the best hospitals in the world. I worked at mgh for mailroom and patient transport and some of the things i have seen is sad, disgusting , confusing how they could do something and can be really awkward

  19. Hoping for some weather advice here…

    I need to take a ride out in Quincy Bay from Wollaston Beach to get something that’s on my boat, and hoping for a recommendation on timing to avoid a N or NE breeze. I’m leaning towards tomorrow morning… she it seems the breeze will be more SE. Thoughts?

    The goal is to be able to go in and out without having to point directly into the wind, as this knocks the stuffing out of you, and also is wet. As in cold ocean water wet.

    Thanks!

    1. I think the wind should be more E and SE as you said and perhaps more importantly, it shouldnt be too strong …. 10 mph, maybe even less.

  21. 12z GFS has a 984 mb east coast storm, origins in the tropics ….. Probably there for 1 run. 🙂

  22. Good evening, we were moving at about 40 mph, came to an abrupt stop, the train guy comes on the loudspeaker we r backing up the train to get off the providence line, huh? I’m serious you can’t make this stuff up.

    Mix of sun and clouds, don’t know the temp, but I’d guess 68 😉

  24. Me thinks our president just flew very low over our house in a huge helicopter. They were doing test runs last night. I waved 🙂 🙂

  26. Pardon the delay on the Summer Outlook. Working on it now. Released later tonight or early tomorrow.

    But in the mean time, you can read the new blog!

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