Summer Outlook (Non-Technical Version)

6 Comments

The lingering chilly ocean water of Winter 2013-2014 and late-melting snow and long-lasting cold in Canada impacts the very early part of Summer (ongoing and the next week or so), keeping a hot pattern at bay. We still see the tendency for a trough over New England through at least June 25.

A weak El Nino is expected to be dominant this Summer and will likely keep tropical activity in the Atlantic below normal. Weak El Nino conditions have been present in several Summer that have had near to above normal temperatures in the Northeast. This combined with the fact that we start the Summer in a transitional pattern from what we have had to what tries to be a warmer to hotter pattern means that my overall call for Summer 2014 will be for near to slightly above normal temperatures near slightly above normal precipitation. This is a change from long-term thinking of dry and more persistent hot conditions several months ago.

Month-by-month…

Remainder of June: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation near normal.

July: Temperature near normal. Precipitation near normal.

August: Temperature near to above normal. Precipitation near to above normal.

September: Temperature above normal. Precipitation near to above normal.

6 thoughts on “Summer Outlook (Non-Technical Version)”

  2. Thanks tk. Will this weak El Niño last into the coming winter. Also been thinking about the cooler / colder conditions that we really can’t seem to shake since winter. Once it does finally move out and we get into a more typical patern of warmth, consistant warmth could that take as long to break or longer translating into a warmer winter like a couple of years ago . Because usually no two winters seem to follow the same patern is that correct .

    1. Once in a while we’ll get 2 similar winters in a row, but it’s rare to have 2 that are very similar.

      We are in a long-term regime of more La Nina events than El Nino occurrences. But this weak El Nino may last at least into Autumn.

    2. Good questions John. Great answer TK. Thank you for your outlook. To me this is a perfect late spring night

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