Saturday AM Update

112 Comments

8:56AM

Front is going to be slow to completely clear the area today, keeping clouds/fog around early, and allowing pop up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon especially eastern MA and NH. Don’t expect everybody to see them but they can occur anywhere. Remainder of forecast is the same at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog scattered showers morning. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon, especially eastern MA and NH. Highs in the 70s, 60s parts of Cape Cod. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind light W.

SUNDAY – FATHER’S DAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 87.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 77.

112 thoughts on “Saturday AM Update”

  2. I am surprised that the warm front did not make it to Boston. In fact, based on Plymouth, I think it sunk a bit south last night.

  4. Thanks tk, it appears from this point forward there will be consistent 80+ degree days from this point forward for the next 16 wks, good day!! 🙂

    Daytime Average high temps are 80 degrees now!!!

    2. You’re calling for consistency in a northern state near an ocean? Good luck with that. 🙂

        1. Or issue a 112-day forecast with the same weather every day. What, this ISN’T San Diego? 😉

    1. If there are going to be any, I’d say btwn now and 6pm.

      Dewpoints in low-mid 60s in eastern Mass, but 50F and under Springfield westbound, so not a big timeframe to work with.

    2. My window is 3PM-7PM but only about 25% coverage total for showers/storms. Basically translates to a 1 in 4 shot of getting one in that 4 hour window.

    3. Thank you Gentlemen.

      I just put down some fertilizer and by control. I have do not get a shower I will water in tomorrow morning.

      1. So far it’s all quiet but there is a zone of instability near the coast now so we still have 2+ hours to pop something.

    1. Thanks JJ!
      I know I have neglected to say so often enough but you make great contributions to WHW. Thanks! 🙂

  12. Hello hello, heading out for dinner at the new Japanese restaurant at Patriot Place, them maybe a small fire at the house. Enjoy your night 🙂 74.4 degrees mostly cloudy with a few peek a boo sun

    1. Enjoy your evening.
      I’m done with the day’s projects. Soon to head to Kelley’s Roast Beef for a dinner on the road, then it’s the night of the 2 fireworks displays: Reading & Woburn (9:20PM & 10:05PM). Just enough time to make it to Woburn after the Reading one ends. Fun times. 🙂

  13. This is one of those days I feel reasonably confident looking out more than 1 week (until of course everything I carefully forecast looks completely different in a day or two). 😉

    Who gets to 80 tomorrow? May hang in the upper 70s. Sun & fair weather clouds, the extent of the latter possibly determining specific high temps.

    Monday, lots of sun, warm & still dry.

    Tuesday, sun & clouds, very warm, more humid, maybe a t-storm but activity may hold off, or blow up far to the NW and never make it here.

    Wednesday looks like a showery, thundery, muggy & warm day.

    Thursday & Friday look fair, cooler, and drier, and when I say cooler, I don’t mean cold. I mean nice.

    Next weekend looks to start nice & end wet. My outdoor plans are Saturday (a local festival at a pond with rides, games, etc, in the morning), and Chief Will’s Day bbq and fireworks in Middleton MA in the evening (something I have been going to for a while even though I’m not from Middleton – I am just a party crasher). 😉

    Still seeing some hints of heat trying to finally get here the following week.

    1. I’ll happily take a HUGE storm on Wednesday. What better day after all :). Today nothing but what a night……

  14. Keith had dinner at belging house in norwell if that’s how you spell it , I was not impressed. My wife had bought a gropon for there. I’m telling you try psangs in Hanover across from star land.

    1. John…I will try it…last couple of times @ Bejing have been less than stellar for me too. I have also go back to Feng Shui in Cohasset

  15. and let the stupid kids down the street, have illegal fireworks yeah thats going to go well hopeing they get arrested

  16. Today’s (not-so-weatherish) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Father’s Day originated in America. Where was the first unofficial celebration of Father’s Day Celebration?
    A. Spokane, WA
    B. Kansas City, KC
    C. Portland, ME
    D. Hartford, CT

    Answer later today.

  17. Liking the long range forecast. My niece will be very happy when I report to her that we have taken care of the weather for Friday. 🙂

    1. Looks good Hadi. I have a family wedding in Toronto on Friday and looks good there as well.

        1. Kids were not invited so she was staying home with my daughter but I may be also. She had a gallbladder attack last night but didn’t want to go to the hospital. I am hoping they take it out this week. They had told her that she has a whole bunch of stones in there.

          1. Oh dear. I hope they take it out this week also. I’m glad you have an appointment tomorrow.

            1. Me too. She said last night, maybe I just won’t eat until Monday…appt is at 9 can’t wait to face that traffic on the xway 🙂

              2. Ugh. There is no easy way to avoid traffic. Good luck. Can you go extra early and just hang around

  18. What a glorious morning. 62 with light gusts and 55 DP. I finally took the windows off the porch so would like to report I’m on the porch this morning and not the deck, Charlie ;). How was Japanese? We don’t have a good Japanese restaurant here and I do love Japanese food…especially when sitting at the cook tables.

    1. Felt beautiful when I took the dog out. Great day for my daughter’s family bday party today!

      1. Happy birthday to your daughter. I thought there were a lot of May birthdays here but there Sure are a lot of June birthdays also

  22. RE: Wednesday from DT

    STRONG cold front will drive from N to S into ILL IND OH northern PA NY state and New England on WED the 18th … into MD DEL VA northern KY on the 19th. ** SIGNIFICANT storms .. Severe storms are possible

  25. Very slow temperature rise today.
    Only up to 71.1 at 11:33 AM.

    WILL it make 80? Not thinking so at the moment.

    1. From nws:

      850 MB TEMPS 9-10C SUPPORT MAXES FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR
      80 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS

    1. Ummm….This is jaw dropping!!!!

      Capes around 3000
      Lifted index is what -10 or -11. Since I have know about lifted index,
      I have NEVER EVER seen these levels around New England before.

      Still doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll have severe weather, but the parameters
      are in place or at least forecast to be in place.

      Positive number Stable
      0 to -4 Marginal instability
      -4 to -7 Large instability
      -8 or less Extreme instability

      1. I am glad were still a few days away and this will more than likely change. There was a day last summer where the lift index values were close to what this latest run of the GFS was showing but thankfully there was a cap and thunderstorms couldn’t form.

      2. FYI:

        CAPE value Convective potential
        0 Stable
        0-1000 Marginally Unstable
        1000-2500 Moderately Unstable
        2500-3500 Very Unstable
        3500 + Extremely Unstable

          1. The day of the Springfield tornado back in June 2011 the CAPE was 4,000, lift index values were -8 -10 range and helicity was in the 150-300 range.

            1. Depending on timing, could be interesting.
              Could be next to nothing. IT all depends, but in any case, it needs to be watched.
              Waiting on Euro.

              0Z Euro had a very high tornado index for
              far Southern NE.

  28. If I remember and that is always questionable :). We had storms last June 18. Hoping for some fun but nondestructive ones to follow this week!

  29. The PGA tour is coming to CT next week and always seems we get a couple unsettled days or a day where thunderstorms pack a punch. For two straight years in 09 and 10 while the tournament was going on there was an EF 1 tornado in Wethersfield in 09 and and EF 1 tornado in Bridgeport in 10.

    1. JJ I don’t have to ask if you are watching the open. Mac used to spend college breaks at his uncles in NC often since his parents were abroad. He played pinehurst 2 several times. Great course and a lesson in progress. The comment that in some cases progress means moving forward but in this case it meant moving back. Mac thinks many other courses will do the same for reasons weather folks would understand.

  31. 12Z Euro is in a paints a different picture than GFS.
    It looks to have the “reduced” action in the middle of the night,
    sparing us severe.

    Here we go again.

    Dueling models.

    I’m guessing Euro WINS this time.

  33. THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES DEALING
    WITH A POTENTIAL MCS THAT TRACKS OVER THE N GREAT LAKES
    TUESDAY…SO HAVE DISCARDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

  34. Answer to Today’s (not-so-weatherish) AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Father’s Day originated in America. Where was the first unofficial celebration of Father’s Day Celebration?
    A. Spokane, WA
    B. Kansas City, KC
    C. Portland, ME
    D. Hartford, CT

    The answer is A, Spokane. Happened in 1910.

  36. Longer range pattern is shown 2 completely different ways between the 12z & 18z GFS runs today. Oh joy. More model confusion. And the Euro has been iffy (again). What else is new?

    I have a feeling tonight’s Week Ahead post will be a little lower confidence than I like, and this is after that high confidence post I made yesterday, then jinxed it. But actually I still think I have a decent handle on how next week works out. It’s after that when things are really foggy, figuratively, and hopefully not literally.

    1. Welllllll I just follow your lead and knowing it is New England understand things change in a heartbeat. That is actually the best part….never knowing what to expect. Kind of like life, don’t ya think? If you could arrange some storms for Wednesday, I’d be more thank grateful but if not….thank you for trying

      Meanwhile, I cannot imagine one person not loving today.

  37. Beautiful beach day at Rexhame, about 80F with the breeze directed offshore. Water chilly, but did not hurt the ankles.

    Thank goodness no late season mid latitude storms because the high tide line from the overnight tides was amazingly far, far up on the beach, nearly to the dunes.

    1. I’m jealous and the high toed mark sure has moved up in the part few years in that area….proof that the level is changing

    1. I saw your pictures on FB. Your dad has a wonderful smile….like his daughters. You were literally a few miles from my oldests home …. I think you and she are a lot alike. 🙂

  39. I hope all the dad’s out there had a good day today. What a beautiful day today. Hopefully will have a lot of these type of days this summer.
    18z GFS CAPE and Lift Index Values for Wed. This model has been showing good CAPE and lift for a few runs now.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014061518&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=072

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014061518&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=072

    1. Keep it coming JJ….thanks for the great links. I second TKs comment I saw earlier about your contribution to this blog.

  42. Great day. 🙂

    Working on The Week Ahead now. Hope to have it up before 10. Probably not too long a post this time, but I’ll get more detailed about Wednesday potential during the next couple days…

    1. Hmmmm I’m waiting to be first and it is after 10:00. And we all know I need lots of beauty rest ;).

      Just kidding. I’m headed to sleep. Can you just transfer this so I’m first please ;). Just kidding again. Sleep well everyone.. Safe travels and prayers for a positive doctor visit tomorrow North.

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