The Week Ahead

100 Comments

10:48PM

The first half of June is done. The second half of the month is about to get underway and the first week of it will feature a variety of changing weather.

High pressure will be in control Monday, which will be a warm and dry day. A disturbance from the west will race into the region overnight Monday night and early Tuesday with some cloudiness and possibly a shower. A general southwest flow will overtake the region ahead of an approaching trough Tuesday and humidity will start to increase as it remains warm. Wednesday may be an active weather day with probable showers and thunderstorms and a possible threat of strong or severe storms as a strong disturbance bumps into an area of warm/muggy air.  This potential will be monitored during the next couple days. By later in the week, a departing trough to the east and a ridge of high pressure to the west will allow another cooler/drier air mass down from Canada. This should last from Thursday into next weekend. There are some signs that approaching low pressure may increase the cloudiness and possible precipitation threat before the end of the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Few high clouds. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs around 80, cooler immediate coast. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive west to east by late. Chance of showers west to east overnight. Lows 60-65. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers ending west to east early, best chance of showers south of the Mass Pike. Partly to mostly sunny midday-afternoon. Highs around 80, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 65. High 85.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 76.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Late showers. Lows 58. High 77.

100 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, thank you. Wednesday looking a little rougher than I thought. Don’t mind the rain, but could do without any severe weather.

    1. CMC Lifted Index

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=LI&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=066

      CAPES

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=066

      Energy Helicity Index

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=EHI&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=066

  4. One theme I am seeing is that the main threat may come EARLIER in the day
    Wednesday, perhaps sparing us severe weather.

    The worst of it may be far SW CT and southern RI of all places.

    It’s all in the timing.

    We’ll see how the 12Z runs handle it all.

  5. Thanks TK.
    Wednesday looks to be the first thunderstorm threat we need to watch this year. There are ingredients in place as shown by the model links Old Salty posted for thunderstorm development. Have to watch the timing of the front and the amount of sunshine we get because if that front comes through during peak heating with hours of sunshine into this unstable airmass then you get strong to possibly severe storms.

    1. It may come though early enough. The NAM has it several hours ahead
      of the GFS with the Euro and CMC in the middle.

      Again, we need to watch the 12Z runs.

      IF the timing is right, it “could” be really bad.

      BUT we’ve watch these threats before only to have them NOT materialize.

      Just wise to watch for now and be prepared and not get caught off guard.

  7. No hazardous weather outlook up for SNE expect for my county in CT Litchfield and there calling for non severe storms.
    Something to watch for Wednesday YES! Something to get alarmed about NO!

    1. Absolutely.

      Most likely is non-severe if anything, however, severe is “possible”.

      We shall be vigilant in watching just in case. 😀

  8. Not for nothing, but the SREF “appears” to keep ALL of the action to
    The SW of New England on Wednesday. So once again we have conflicting
    information. It will become clearer soon enough.

    A big clue will be the next SPC update coming around 8:30AM or so.
    We’ll see if they place our area in a risk zone.

  9. I have a question regarding past weather events I was hoping someone could give me a hand finding. My company had a solar project out in Warren, MA. The project ran from August 2013 to June 2014. The project is completed and I am about to perform our project wrap up. I would like to present a document that states weather conditions per day for the entire length of the project. Can anyone give me a hand finding this information?

    Thanks!

  10. Thanks TK for the update.

    Thanks OS and JJ for the info regarding Wednesday.

    Good luck Coastal.

  11. Thank you TK! Thank you OS and JJ and everyone for all of the time you take to post the links as well. I would love to have something to track mid-week….and suspect I am far from the only one 🙂

    1. Thanks Vicki. We love to do it.

      At this point, these links are just various forecast models of the expected
      severe parameters. Not much different than when we post snow maps
      in the Winter for “expected” storms. Just because 2-3 days in advance a model
      predicts something, does not mean it will happen as you can see by all
      of the Winter disappointments we had.

      On the other hand, these models serve as a warning to the “Potential”.

      Really, that is all it is at the moment, potential.

      BUT, it is potential that scares the CRAP out of me.

      I’ll be watching very carefully.

      BTW, my daughter, who appears to be psychic like her Mother, “FEELS” a tornado is coming. Let’s hope it is NOT Wednesday!!!!

      1. I enjoy the summer and winter maps because they indicate something to watch…..all the while I keep in mind nothing is written in stone. And noooooo I would not want a tornado. My mom had that same ability to sense something so I learned at a young age never to discount it. Did you mean she feels the potential for this week or in the near future?

        1. Near future, not necessarily this week.

          Btw, so far I am not seeing a tornado threat with this possible severe weather. At least not at this time. But we’ll keep watching.

          FWIW, the latest SPC update this morning did NOT
          place our area in the severe threat zone.

  13. The parameter that I found today is new to me.
    It is EHI or Energy Helicity Index.

    Index values mean:

    EHI > 1 Supercell potential
    1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
    5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

    The CMC model produces this index.

    Still waiting on the 12Z run, but here is last nights 0Z run again:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=EHI&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=066

    You will note that last nights run had this idex at 1.5-2 across SNE.

    If you look at that scale, then it indicates up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible

    Not to alarm anyone, but I find this interesting. YET the SPC does NOT
    have us in a severe threat zone???

    Will post 12Z data after lunch.

    1. that might not be putting all the needed info to put us in the severe catagory. maybe there are more stuff going on then that will kill the chance of tornadic activity

      1. Sure, could be. Plus, the SPC is going off of more current info.
        As I said, this was last night’s 0Z run.

        The 12Z main data is in, but it takes longer to produce these
        special parameter maps. I’ll post when I see it ready.

        We shall see.

  14. summer weather 🙂 … warm, humid, afternoon storms. sounds like new england summer what im seeing is possible upper 80s to low 90s on wednesday, here is hoping front does not screw it up and stays out of here until after 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

  16. Hmmm

    I present the 12ZNAM EHI (Energy Helicity Index) for Wednesday:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=048&fixhh=1&hh=054

    That’s a 4 over SNE!!!!

    EHI > 1 Supercell potential
    1 to 5 up to F2, F3 tornadoes possible
    5+ up to F4, F5 tornadoes possible

    Lifted Index:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    -6 to -8 across SNE

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    That’s 2500 up to 4000 over SNE!!!

    Pretty frightening parameters from the NAM!!

    12Z GFS lifted Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=LI&hh2=054&fixhh=1&hh=060

    That’s -10 folks

    1. Looks like it’s the American models against the foreign ones. The Euro and CMC keep everything SW of us. I’d bet on them for sure but if the GFS and NAM happen to be correct then we’d have something to watch.

        1. Wedesday is June 18th. That is within 3 days of
          the absolute MAXIMUM potential heating from the SUN.
          If the timing is just right OR just wrong depending on
          perspective, it would make ALL the difference in the world.

  17. Re: Severe weather threat for Wednesday

    There are differing takes on this among the models, with some parameters more
    severe than others. Also there are differences in timing and helicity.

    But given what’s out there, we have to watch EXTREMELY closely on this one.

    Hopefully, it all passes with little fanfare, however, the potential is there for
    real fireworks and possible damage. Let’s hope not!!

  18. re: EURO for Wednesday

    Looks like the 12Z Euro wants to accelerate things and move the action through
    in the wee hours to morning with NOTHING severe at all. This would be very good.

    GEEZ this is like in the Winter. ZERO model consistency, so who knows what.

  19. In regards to the EURO NWS out of Upton, NY yesterday was not going with it saying it was having feedback problems.
    The parameters are tough to ignore and must be watched and some are the most impressive I have seen so far this year with thunderstorm potential. Given the EURO performance in the winter I wouldn’t favor that model.

    1. JJ, you make a good point, but I don’t think that the CMC can be
      totally discounted. As per usual, we have to wait for additional model
      runs. But I agree, IF and I say IF the timing is right, we could be in trouble.

      I have a sneaky feeling, timing will be with us and spare us severe weather.

      We shall see and we’ll continue to watch. 😀

  20. The timing as always when trying to determine strength of thunderstorms. Do we get hours of sunshine and really destablize the atmosphere. Certainly the warm humid air will be in place which thunderstorms love.

  21. I agree. The warm front is by us and the cold front back by the Great Lakes area which would allow for hours of sunshine to destablize the atmosphere. The front coming through will provide the lift for thunderstorm development and it will interacting with a warm and humid airmass in place.

    1. Additionally from NWS…

      WEDNESDAY…WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING BY

      And from TK:
      as a strong disturbance bumps into an area of warm/muggy air.

  22. Will be interesting to see later if the NWS issues a hazardous weather outlook for Wednesday. Tomorrow the SPC will be updating there outlooks for Wednesday twice. Once in the wee hours of the morning and the other around 1:30 in the afternoon. Western parts of SNE were placed in the 5% area for Wednesday which is for general thunderstorms.

  23. Interesting late spring and early summer. On the cool side, I think, overall. And this applies to much of the country. Could be explained by the rather cool weather that prevails over much of Canada. Our Nunavut friends (way (!) up north) have experienced a very cool June thus far (today being no exception):

    http://www.camcentral.com/camviewer.php?script=listings&task=list&item=location&show=Canada&page=5&id=17446

    Notice the salt water that is still frozen, though breaking up. But also notice the snow patches in the hills across the bay. Usually by now that water is no longer filled with ice. The average temperature during the day should be around 9C/10C (48F/50F), but instead has hovered mostly in the 30s and low 40s all month.

    2. My SILs cousin lives in Lake Placid. Well not in the lake. The snow on the mountain didnt melt until early May…late he thought

  24. For anyone who does care (and I most definitely care) … GO USA! … Going to be a very tough group to advance to the knock-out stages from (the top 2 teams from each group of 4 go through), but I’m hopeful.

  25. Pete says severe storm potential for Tuesday night/overnight Wednesday! Daytime hours this week should be ok.

    Your thoughts on that timeframe Jimmy and OS??

    1. Depends on what model you want to believe.

      SEE NAM posts here.

      NAM wants to bring activity in around 10AM.
      Euro and CMC a bit earlier and GFS perhaps a bit later.

      Overnight Wednesday?????????????????????? huh????
      Front is OFF SHORE by then.

      Overnight Tuesday, perhaps.

      I’d lean towards activity from 5AM to Noon on Wednesday. Somewhere in
      that time frame. But this could still change.

  26. 18Z NAM shows MAXIMUM Cape at around 15Z (11AM) and diminishes considerably
    at 18Z:

    12Z CAPE

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014061618&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=042

    15Z CAPE

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014061618&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=045

    18Z Cape

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014061618&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=048

    Simulated Radar Reflectivity at 12Z

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014061618&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=042

    Reflectivity shows ZIPPO at any other time on Wednesday.

    So it sure looks like the NAM wants to send whatever activity there is through
    about 10AM Wednesday which would be really good.

    1. I HATE this model divergence we keep seeing.

      But clearly there have been some signs that the activity could be passing
      through the area earlier in the day. Perhaps it will do just that.

      1. OS – I meant to say that Pete’s timeframe is Tuesday night/early Wednesday (while most of us are sleeping). I always get mixed up on the term “overnight”. 😉

        1. I figured you might have meant that.

          Then he is going with Euro/CMC combo.

          I’d lean more towards Early Wednesday to mid morning
          Wednesday, but we shall see.

          BTW, IF it comes through in the wee hours, the likelihood of SEVERE weather is quite low, in my opinion.

          1. Pete was actually giving everyone a “heads up” in the fact that the storms are coming at night, they will likely be quite severe…at least that is the impression he gave. He mentioned that there will be a lot of upper level energy in the atmosphere over us. Night time storms are the most freightening IMO. I hope Pete is wrong.

            1. True, IF severe weather came in the middle of the night, it is scary as hell.

              I, personally, do NOT expect severe weather with this event IF in the middle of the night.

              That being said, we need to watch because the parameters can change from what is currently forecast.

              Pete has been correct before, so perhaps he is onto something.

              We’ll watch for sure.

              1. Even if he isn’t, I like being aware that it could happen after dark and in the sleeping hours. I love nighttime storms but not if there is a tornado or otherwise severe threat.

  29. To get severe storms in the middle of the night without any daytime heating to me there has to be good dynamics in place to compensate for the lack of heating.

    1. According to Pete, those overnight “dynamics” will be in place. We will see what happens.

  30. Still good CAPE and Lift Index Values on the 18z GFS but noticing for the past two runs of the GFS the CAPE and Lift Index values are coming down some.

  31. The highest CAPE and Lift Index Values are in the 18z -21z time frame with the latest GFS run.

  32. The CPC is now consistently showing above normal temps for the entire east coast through the end of the month. I guess it is safe to say that the “spring chill” is gone for good and we can now put away the long sleeves and thick jackets. 😀

    The only negative are the opportunities for HHH and severe storms every now and then…UGH! 🙁

      1. Sorry meant to post to you earlier but got involved with work when we got back. We met with the Surgeon, he couldn’t do it until July 29th. He was the Chief of Surgery. He did say it needed to come out sooner than later though and was worried about her going too long. We got a call this afternoon that one of his colleagues will so it this Friday. We have to be there at 6am! I cancelled my tri to Toronto for a family wedding. I was to leave Thursday. Non refundable ticket…..

        How is Mac doing?

        1. I have learned that the best doctors surround themselves with doctors that are equally qualified. I suspect you know that but just thought I’d toss it out there. His colleague performing the surgery is wonderful news. I’ll keep Mrs north in my prayers. Please give her a hug from me and tell her Macs brothers wife’s gall bladder was removed just over two weeks ago and she is already back to her regular routine. Are you on FB?

          Mac is bored but doing well. PT and OT are giving him a workout. He is walking about 200 ft with the walker.

          1. Oh. Usually the airline will do something if you tell them it is a medical emergency. Good luck

          2. Thanks Vicki. Tens Surgeon that is doing her surgery did my biopsy a few years ago. She has been operating for 7 years. No I am not on FB but she is. I maybe will have her friend you. I tell her what you say all the time :). It will come through as Sara.

            Good news on Mac, tell him to keep up the good work and more golf will be on Thursday. He is lucky to have you there to support him.

            PT is no fun. My wife went through some grueling exercises to get her broken knee back going again the past few months.

            We both need our spouses to have a better second half of the year 🙂

            1. Boy do I agree with your last paragraph. I’ll look for the friend request. I did remember mrs Norths name :). She is very lucky to have you there also.

                1. I thought I accepted it but now can’t find her. Daughter tried to help me but gave up. 🙁

                3. Hmmm I can’t find her….but I’ll keep looking. Maybe in am when my eyes are open ;). Tell mrs north thanks 🙂

    1. Thanks JJ. I read some and want to understand it more. My mind usually doesn’t function after 3:00. I bookmarked and will print and read tomorrow. I would love to use this with the grandkids.

  38. 0z runs are almost here. Let us see if anything changes

    As jj said gfs has action 15z to 21z. We shall see what others say

  39. Those runs will be interesting to watch as well as the 12z tomorrow. Some models want to bring the front in before peak heating takes places. GFS wants to bring it through in the afternoon which would allow for heating to take place. there is enough CAPE and Lift that even if it came through without any heating I would not rule out isolated strong thunderstorms.

  43. Anyone notice out west winter storm warning for the high elevations. That would make me sick if I lived out there.

    1. Wow. That is crazy so late in the season….probably the only months it would never happen areJuly and August.

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