Summer Shot

96 Comments

7:34AM

It is technically still Spring (until Saturday), though in many a mindset Summer has already begun. And we’ll have an injection of Summertime weather today and Wednesday with warm to hot air invading the region. Along with this though will be a couple disturbances – a warm front passing the region today that has triggered a few showers and thunderstorms in southern MA and RI. These will move away early today which will then just feature clouds and sun, with sun becoming more dominant before giving in to more clouds later in the day again. A cold front will charge through the region on Wednesday, but a trough preceding it may literally “steal the thunder” from what could have been an outbreak of strong to severe storms. This trough will bring a shower and thunderstorm threat in the early to mid morning hours of Wednesday, some of which may be strong, but more stable air behind it will hold back storm development later in the day when the actual front passes. But with the cooler air behind the actual front, it will allow it to heat up during the day Wednesday after the storm threat, even though the humidity level, which will increase today, will drop tomorrow during the afternoon.

After all this, it looks like a couple days of drier and cooler air (Thursday-Friday) as a northwesterly flow from Canada takes over. High pressure will build in and try to hold on for the coming weekend, though a frontal boundary not too far to the southwest has to be watched as it may try to toss some cloudiness back into the region during Saturday and especially Sunday, when low pressure forming on this boundary may bring a chance of wet weather into the region before the weekend is finished. This unsettled weather should continue into Monday of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: A few showers/thunderstorms Cape Cod & southern RI early to mid morning.  Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s, 70s South Coast and Cape Cod. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid morning, then partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 70s Cape Cod, 80s to around 90 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 78.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late. Low 56. High 75.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 60. High 74.

96 thoughts on “Summer Shot”

  2. Many thanks TK.

    I was looking at models first and then just read your forecast. Spot on! Nice!
    I love the way you word your forecasts. I wish on air Mets would adopt your style.

    Most of the action appears to want to take place between 12Z and 15Z (we knew that yesterday). All severe parameters have Dropped considerably from previous runs. I’m not even going to post any.

    I have mixed feelings. On the one hand I wanted the action of something juicy, but on the other I didn’t want anyone hurt or their property damaged. Always the way I guess. So it looks like all is for the best.

    1. Around 14Z or 15Z Capes are around 2000 and LI around -6, so even with
      the trough induced T-storms early, they could be fairly potent, but I think
      the really severe potential has waned.

  3. Thanks TK.
    Looks like were going to dodge the bullet on what could have been some big thunderstorms. Still as I said last night with the CAPE and Lift Index Values I would not rule out an isolated strong thunderstorm.

  4. Hazardous weather outlook is up for the region indicating a low to moderate probability of a few strong storms overnight tonight in Wednesday then a low probablity of a few strong storms south of the pike tomorrow afternoon and evening.

      1. Thanks John, will do. The big trip this year is to North Carolina, eventually to camp on the Outer Banks a good part of July. I’ve been checking obs out there on the Outer Banks and while the ocean keeps it from getting hot, the dewpoint has always been btwn 72F-75F. So, we’ll see how long we last. 🙂

        Congrats to your son on another year of school completed !

        1. Have always wanted to explore outer banks. Closest we got was Chincoteage which you know. I hope you post pics on FB 🙂

        2. Thanks Tom. He is excited for the principal to anounce Friday that they are now 5th graders.

  6. NWS out of Taunton take for Wednesday
    WEDNESDAY…
    WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 12Z…WE SHOULD HAVE
    DRYING/CLEARING SKIES DURING THE LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE THE
    AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIP WATER
    NEAR 1.5 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN CT/RI/SE MASS. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF
    THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE EQUIV TO 18-19C…FULL MIXING OF THIS AIR
    WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE WILL TARGET MAX
    TEMPS NEAR 90 WITH 80S IN THE HILLS AND NEAR THE COAST.

    STILL AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM
    AND MODEL SURFACE BASED CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. THESE VALUES ARE AT
    MAXIMUM ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
    CONVECTION WITH PREFERENCE FOR CT/RI/SE MASS. THESE STORMS HAVE
    THE POTENTIAL TO ALSO BE STRONG…NOT SURPRISING THAT SPC SLIGHT
    RISK AREA IS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST.

  7. Thank you TK – congrats on being first, North 😉

    Old Salty – I agree that is a double-edged sword. It would be great to have some big storms; but at the same time, they represent risk.

    Happy Summer, Tom !!!!!!

    1. Thanks Vicki !

      Each school year seems to go by a bit faster. I’ve been in a daze the last few days realizing that the school year is over. As I look back, it was a blink.

  8. I’m guessing we received about .1 to .2 in of rain this morning in a couple heavy showers.

    As the main batch exited, enough clearing took place to see the backside of a puffy, fairly tall cumulus cloud. The top part had that pinkish coloring so often seen in summer.

    Now, I’d say its 90% clear …….. there are still a couple cumulus clouds out there, not as tall as the one I saw this morning.

  9. Thanks TK! Enjoy your last day of school Tom! Plymouth gets out on Friday with a half day like Pembroke. My boys are so ready for summer break! Truth be told, I am also as it means no more fighting my 2nd grader to do his homework.

    1. I always loved summer vacations when my kids could be kids for a bit. My grand gets out thurs but he’ll have a few hours each am until late July as he seems to do better with continuity. He prefers school to non school so doesn’t mind

  10. Only adjustment later may be to add some afternoon convection to southern areas later Wed.

  14. My sister in law said they eastern seaboard around NYC is/was mess for travel due to storms. She was supposed to have a return trip to Atlanta yesterday but she and several other flights had to lay over and then she finally had to dead head home. I haven’t look at the radar lately so will have to check it out.

  15. Just came back from fishing. Really nice out there. Water level in the Charles is
    pretty high. High enough to affect the fishing and where the fish are hiding. Managed to only land 1 fish., while losing 1 other.

    I was wondering IF there might be a change since this AM.

    We’ll see about tomorrow afternoon. I’m not buying it just yet, but I am open.`

    Hey Hadi, You aren’t at Jamaica Pond right now with the Kiddos are you?

  16. Umm What happened. Just looked at the 12Z Runs.

    Parameters are down even more, although the NAM’s are still pretty good.

  19. I have a tough time judging how bad the storms will be overnight into the morning, they don’t look widespread at all coming through IMO

  20. A wee bit humid out there. dp=68 at Logan, 69 at Blue Hill and Norwood.
    Not used to this!!!

    MCS in NY state appears to be dying. Looks like it won’t survive the Eastward trip
    unless something kicks it in the pants. 😀

    18Z NAM totally unimpressive! I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Eastern sections
    see NOTHING early tomorrow and again NOTHING later tomorrow. We shall see.
    Every model run REDUCES the severe parameters. 2 days ago I was impressed.
    NOT now. 😀

      1. Interesting line up there. I’m leaving my shade up tonight just in case :). Someone wake me please 😉

          1. Thanks OS. I’m thinking even if they were to reach here they would be very diminished. Maybe just western MA as you said.

  23. Expect that line to accelerate later. Should reach southwestern NH and north central MA as strong storms but then steadily diminish while heading toward eastern and northeastern MA and NH Seacoast region. Still a few strong cells may survive into these areas if the line moves fast enough. Severe weather is unlikely but some strong and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Computers wanna bring the line through between 3AM and 5AM but it may be up at least an hour earlier than that.

      1. Less support down there. The only way something would really kick up there would be brief cells on an outflow boundary from the stuff to the north.

  25. I said to my wife look at the radar, look at the storms coming, she looked at me and said they will weaken right? I said of course, she says that’s what I thought, I thought it was funny, anyways goodnight 🙂

  27. Rain here. Looking at radar, it seems that some stronger cells may have managed to hold together until 495….a few

  31. Thank you, Tom and Longshot!!!

    What a morning. The air is humid but the warm breeze feels wonderful.

  32. Yes it’s very sticky outside but I will never complain about this as I love it. Of course it’s no fun in jeans and boots but oh well.

  34. Happy Birthday Vicki.

    Hey, did it rain anywhere in the East last night. I never heard thunder. There
    was ZERO evidence of rain this morning. Curious.

    Looks like it is slowly drying out.

    With the GFS severe parameters earlier I thought we were facing Armageddon.
    It was like the Famous EURO blizzards that NEVER materialized last Winter. 😆

    1. Thanks OS. Rained here. Steady but not too long. It seemed the cells that might have produced thunder diminished at 495. This was around 3:00

    2. Per the obs …..

      Worcester reported .12, while Norwood and Logan have 0 reported in the obs. On that west-east line, it appears the showers didnt make it past 128, maybe even 495.

      I should have checked Beverly, further north, to see if anything made it further east.

      1. Ah ha!! Just as I suspected. I knew it!
        Thanks Tom and Vicki. Much appreciated.

        Pretty nice out there now. Quite Windy.

  36. With all of the subsidence, I am surprised at the amount of cumulus out there now.
    No vertical growth on them, but they are there.

  37. No rain here pretty windy from the west though,looks dry till monday or tuesday of next week 🙂

    happy birthday vicki

  38. Good morning, no rain here last night, the typical dieing out storms as they move east across ny and into western mass, not more than a few clouds by the time they got here. Hope everyone has a good day 🙂

  39. Happy Birthday Vicki!

    We did have some thunder and lightning in Plymouth around 4 am. Nothing too crazy but it was enough to wake my 6-year old.

  42. Thank you everyone. And you had T&L, Sue?? I can’t say that waking a six year old is good news though 🙁

      1. Close enough, Charlie….close enough 😉 I remember last year Longshot said I was finally at an age where I could drink legally and I told him I still had some time to go. He knew because he and I are the same age 😉

    1. Thanks, Rainshine!!

      Windy out there, isn’t it? It is 82.7 with a 61 DP and wind gusting to 20. It feels nice

      1. Yes, it is windy – but I agree with you – it’s nice! Also, the sky is beautiful – all the clouds in varying shades of gray, white and even yellow with the sun shining on them – all against a brilliant blue sky.

        In Sudbury we didn’t get much last night either – I was up for a bit around 1:00 a.m. and there were some severe storms out in the Berkshires – but they kind of went poof! as they headed east.

  44. Dew point at Logan down to 60 and temperature has dropped to 84.
    Stiff NW breeze. Really nice.

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