This Is The Summer Pattern

61 Comments

7:44PM

We are in the pattern expected for at least the first half of Summer. Heatwaves will be hard to come by, but the pattern has adjusted itself just enough to allow a little more heat once in a while, as may be expected as we head toward July. But the dominant pattern still allows a boundary to often reside nearby and disturbances moving along it to produce some unsettled weather and temperature shifts.

There will be times when the mean ridge position over the central US is a little more expansive and pushes the dominate upper wind to more westerly, allowing more warm/hot days than cooler ones, and such a shift is about to take place. Other times we’ll see more of a northwesterly flow over the Northeast US with more variable temperatures resulting.

The warmer regime will get underway after 1 day of cooler northerly flow on Friday, put in place on Thursday as low pressure developed on a passing cold front and dragged cooler air down from eastern Canada and the Maritimes. It was fairly humid overnight and into the morning and it’s been slow to dry, but it is doing so now. Also some pop up showers and downpours occurred mainly over inland areas from south central NH into north central MA but these will fade quickly as a clearing trend comes down from the north tonight.

Lots of sun should dominate Friday through Sunday, with warming conditions this weekend as the wind turns more westerly.

Next week looks fairly Summery, typical for the end of June and start of July.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clearing north to south. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to NE  5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NE to N.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-85 except 70s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH, but some coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Wind light variable becoming W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 68. High 87.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 69. High 89.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

61 thoughts on “This Is The Summer Pattern”

    1. Until we get closer, the GFS is the ONLY guidance that predicts some
      rough weather for Next Wednesday, 7/2. So we won’t worry and we’ll just
      keep an eye on subsequent runs of all the models.

    1. Hi OS! She had the surgery last Friday morning at BI. We were there at 6am and out by 12:30. Crazy how quick it is. She has been feeling better each day and went back to work Wednesday already (probably too early). Thanks for asking :).

      1. If you had posted it, sorry I missed it. I was thinking about it last night. Happy that she is recovering well. My wife also had
        her surgery at the BI. Her recovery took forever. She had a really rough time of it, so really happy to hear you wife is doing so well.

  9. Thanks, TK. Sorry about your loss and my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.

    North – I am glad your wife is feeling better! 🙂

    AceMaster – I apologize for not congratulating you earlier on your recent marriage. May you and your new wife have a long, healthy and happy life together! I am glad you had a wonderful time on your honeymoon and I hope you are feeling better.

    Vicki – I am glad Mac is feeling better and I hope he comes home soon.

    I am sorry that I don’t get in the conversations that much, but it’s been very busy with doctors and such. We’re okay but there has been a lot of frustrations going on. I try to get on when the weather gets exciting but I’ll try to get on more. I know a lot of you are on FB – my husband is but I am not. A lot of people urge me to, but I prefer not to, at this point.

    So, hope everyone has a good wknd. Looks like the weather will be perfect for those who like sunshine, warm temps. and low humidity.

        1. Thanks for asking, North. We are ok but my husband, after a year, has still not had any oral surgery done due to the fact we can’t afford it – and to find a dentist/oral surg. to accept payments rather than all at once has been hard. Today he is seeing an oral surg. that will accept a payment plan. He has been ok but has a lump on his neck that his dr. says could be related to his teeth. And my health insurance was about to stop but then got extended and now they want a review so I have had to fill out all this paperwork – shall I go on? I hate to complain – seeing how a lot of people on here have worse problems. I guess it’s all about life – what can you do? As the song goes – That’s life! Anyway, will try to enjoy the nice wknd.

  10. We will have the high dew points in place when that front comes through next week which is one ingredient you need for thunderstorm development. Got to watch the timing because if that front comes through during peak heating we could get a fireworks show prior to fourth of July courtsey of Mother Nature. Something to keep an eye on but nothing to worry about at this time.

    1. JJ,

      So far the trend has been to have Advertised possible severe weather with very potent severe parameters (CAPE & Lifted Index as well as others) several days in advance ONLY to see those parameters be greatly reduced or even go poof.

      SO, I’m not holding my breath or getting unduly worried, but will keep a cautious eye on it, just in case. 😀

      Will be interesting IF these parameters are maintained on the 12Z runs????

      1. I am going to watch the model trends today through early next week. My interest will peak the day before or day of
        a thunderstorm day especially if CAPE and Lift that is being shown by 6z GFS is being shown.

          1. The GFS so far with CAPE and Lift has been going bonkers days in advance only to come back down
            to earth. Will see if this trend continues or is the GFS on to something.

  11. Perfect timing on this cool, dry airmass, as for now, our A/C is on the blink. Thats ok, we’re on the road in 3 days anyway.

    The Wilmington, NC forecasted highs for next Tuesday, Wed and Thurs are 92, 94, 94.

    I think after this upcoming venture into the south, 85 and a dewpoint of 65 are going to seem pleasantly cool. 🙂

      1. BTW,

        The CMC has NADA! NOTHING at all.

        So until such time that we have some model agreement,
        I’m just going to LAUGH at the GFS. 😀

  16. The biggest CAPE and Lift on that run have pushed back a little further west which is another trend I have noticed with the GFS so far when there have been these thunderstorm threats. There will be some ingredients in place for thunderstorms the humid airmass and the front coming through to provide the lift. I don’t buy this solution the GFS is showing but I do think there will be rumbles of thunder in the Tuesday Wednesday timeframe.

      1. This should have been with the above link:

        The Weather Channel
        Yesterday at 4:58pm ·
        For the first time this season, is the Atlantic about to wake up?

  18. Can anyone help? My husband just went to an oral surgeon today. To make a long story short, they wanted $300.00 for the exam and $185.00 for xrays with the money up front. It seems all oral surgeons are like that. We don’t have that money to give all at once but we can give payments. Anyone know of a good oral surgeon anywhere in the Boston, South Shore, North Shore, MetroWest area that would accept payments? We don’t have credit cards and don’t want to deal with Care Credit as we dealt with them and it wasn’t good and evidently other people have too. Thanks.

    1. Ouch, so sorry.

      Wish I knew of one. I don’t

      Only time we used one was for our son’s 4 extractions prior to
      braces and I can’t remember whether our insurance covered it or we paid up front for it. 20+ years ago.

      Best of luck.

    2. I use oral surgical associates in framingham but do not know if they will do payment plans. $300 for exam seems high unless it is put towards the work. I detest dental work. Sorry you are having so much trouble.

    1. Grandson had huge bump on side of head from a bug bite. You are right that it is that time of year.

  21. Another top 10 summer weekend with nice temps and low humidity. I am loving the summer of 2014 so far. A couple humid days during the week with nice weekends. Hopefully this will continue all summer. I am looking ahead to see the next round of weather action and it looks to be Wednesday. The GFS continuing to advertise a good amount of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lift for thunderstorm development. Of course as mentioned yesterday the GFS has done this numerous times with the thunderstorms threats only to come back down to earth. Will see what happens this time.
    Here is the 6z GFS CAPE and Lift Index
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062806&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=111

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062806&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=111

    3. Here’s Taunton’s take:

      AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL…ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO ASSESS BUT IF TIMING IS RIGHT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME RISK GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST LOCALES.

  23. Good morning,

    Regarding Tuesday

    It’s beginning to get more interesting, although there is still plenty of time for
    things to change:

    Euro appears to be coming on board showing Capes of 1500-2000 and a total totals
    index of 50-52 which means: 51-52 Isolated severe storms with cross totals
    at 21-25, which means:
    22 – 23 Scattered thunderstorms/ isolated severe
    24 – 25 Scattered thunderstorms/ few severe/isolated tornadoes

    CMC is on board but not as robust as GFS and even the GFS packs the wallop more
    to the North and West with still pretty decent parameters in the Boston Area.

    So there are differences in intensity and timing. IF everything comes together
    just right, it could get dicey around these parts.

    We’ll just keep watching.

      1. Vicki were you able to drive Mack and how did the three appointments go. Will he be able to come home for the 4th.

          1. John you are kind to ask. The appointments are not until the 2nd. I do drive him with help from SIL to infectious disease dr at newton wellesley Monday as he continues to spike fevers.

  25. I don’t think I ever said congrats and welcome back to Acemaster! So better late than never – apologies. And anyone else that I should have recognized for whatever is going on. Let’s all think positive thoughts!

    On that note, I have issued a new blog that has (maybe foolishly) a 9-day forecast attached to it. Ugh. What can possibly go wrong when you try to forecast that far in advance? Well, NECN does 10. So here we go…

    Special thing though, not going to be a 9-day forecast every day. 😉 This covers thru the holiday weekend.

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