The Week Ahead

240 Comments

7:22PM

We have reached the end of the last weekend of June 2014, and now we are staring at the last day of June (Monday) and the big July 4th Weekend (Friday through Sunday, or longer for some people that have utilized well-placed time off). So, what’s the weather going to be? Of course, time will tell for sure, but the following will be my best shot at predicting it.

The weather systems: High pressure slides offshore Monday and Tuesday as June ends and July begins, establishing a southwesterly flow. One weakening cold front attempts to move into the region Wednesday but falls apart. A second slightly stronger cold front moves through the region Thursday, with some question as to timing – does it move right along or slow down? Contrary to popular opinion, computerized and otherwise, I am going to play the scenario of the front moving right in, slowing down, but also weakening. The wildcard in this forecast is the development and movement of a tropical low pressure area near the US Southeast Coast (likely to become a depression and possibly the first tropical storm of the season). This system will probably stay offshore of the Northeast as it eventually moves north then northeast late next week. High pressure builds in from the west as the tropical low scoots seaward by next weekend.

The resulting weather: Heat and humidity builds into Wednesday, with humidity not too noticeable Monday but moreso Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A minimal thunderstorm risk will be present Wednesday as the first cold front washes out nearby. A better chance of showers/storms takes place Thursday with the second front, but again location and timing of these is never an easy thing to postulate several days in advance, so the wording on the forecast below will be general, and become more detailed as the day gets closer. A benefit of having a tropical low pressure area organizing to the south of the region at this time, including the Independence Day holiday on Friday, will be to potentially take away available moisture for any lingering frontal system during this time. That may end up diminishing shower and storm chances later Thursday and Friday, though the mention of them will appear in the forecast for now. Assuming things have moved along, lower humidity, warm air, and fair weather will be here for the weekend.

The detailed forecast (for southeastern New England)…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-65, coolest interior valleys. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-88 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Increasing humidity. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.

FRIDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 81.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

240 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks tk 🙂

    Pool water has risen above 70 degrees and is currently 71 degrees, it usually reaches the mid to upper 70’s by late July early Aug, so it’s on it’s way. Our average high temps stay above 75 degrees till mid to late Sept 🙂 have a good night

  3. Thanks TK !

    Departing at 4am tomorrow morning, goal of northern Virginia tomorrow night, then Wilmington, NC sometime Tuesday.

    When I get a chance, I’ll post from the road, maybe to give some tropical storm reports later in the week. 🙂

    2. Have a Wonderful time. Such a special family vacation. Pictures and posts will be greatly appreciated as you can. Safe and fun travels.

  4. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    When is hail considered severe?
    A. When pea sized
    B. Makes contact with the ground
    C. Is ¾” in diameter
    D. When it dents cars

    The answer is supposedly C. I got this one wrong.
    ___________________________________________
    Today’s 2nd AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What are you afraid of when you suffer from lilapsophobia?
    A. Thunder and lightning
    B. Dust storms
    C. Hurricanes and tornadoes
    D. Earthquakes

    The answer is C.

  5. Thank you TK. Great explanation. Will you go to esplanade this year ? Did I hear beach boys are playing or did I make that up?

    2. I have been every year since 1990.
      Tradition. They will be wheeling me there in a wheelchair when I’m 105 too. 🙂

            1. You Both gave me happy tears. Thank you 🙂 I wish I could too. But my fourth would be the best ever if I can just get Mac home :). I promise to watch for you…can u wear something funky 😉

              2. I will probably be wearing the hat that is in my FB profile picture right now, and that sweatshirt at night if it cools down enough, or a similar t shirt if it’s too warm. But we don’t usually get on camera where we are (near the fireworks barge). But if a copter comes over I’ll wave anyway. 😛

                We are thinking the best thoughts for Mac. 🙂

                1. Thank you TK. Isn’t the barge pretty far down the river toward Cambridge. Are you in the area where the crowd is or further down river also. Or perhaps the barge is closer than I think

  6. Since it’s quiet on the weather front New England will lose 2 more House of Representatives in 2020, Rhode Island will be down to 1 (1st time since they became a state over 200yrs ago, Mass could decrease to 8 house representatives in 2020 (down from 16 in 1970) if they don’t grow enough. (Need app 250,000 new residents to avoid losing a seat). New England as a whole could have only 15 house representatives to service the entire New England area. I wish it was the other way around, this is a very slow death over many decades, don’t mean to be the bad news bear, but it’s true unless we are accepting to change. Goodnight everyone 🙂

  7. Thanks TK.
    Couple things to track this week. A couple thunderstorm POTENTIAL days Wednesday and Thursday and a low trying to get organized and develop near the southeast coast.
    18z GFS CAPE and Lift and Wednesday. NWS out of Taunton mentions a cap for Wednesday which may prevent thunderstorm development unless a trigger could break the cap.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062918&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=075

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014062918&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=075

    1. Too early in the season. Even if it comes up this way, cold water will destroy it quickly.

  11. Boy channel 5 puts a map with a depicted model run and having “Arthur” looking like a hit towards NE on it’s FB page.

    1. Already too much detail for a system that has not formed yet.

      And they will all make the same hype mistake as always.

      Some things never change.

  12. Vicki… The barge is usually a little more then half way between the Longfellow & Mass Ave bridges. This year it’ll be a little closer to Mass Ave bridge, about mid point in the river between Cambridge & Boston side. We sit on the bank of the river directly opposite the barge, basically a front row seat.

  13. Here is the 06Z GFS depiction of the tropical system. I understand that it hasn’t
    formed yet. I also understand that IF it came this way, the water is still chilly out
    there, however, it is warm just to our South. Not that it would ever be a hurricane up here, it could still wreck our weather. So far, models have it taking a right turn well
    South of our latitude. 😀

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014063006&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=126

    Euro

    http://i.imgur.com/aVOwgsZ.png?1

    Even so, best to keep an eye on this situation

    From NHC:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    60% chance within 48 hours and 80% within next 5 days.

  14. re: Thunderstom Potential

    06Z NAM CAPE for Wednesday

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014063006&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=063

    and for Thursday

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014063006&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=084

    I don’t have 06Z Lifted index yet.

    JJ usually posts the GFS, so I won’t post that yet, unles JJ doesn’t a bit later. 😀

    I will, however, post the 0Z CMC indices…. next post

    1. 0Z CMC

      CAPE for Wednesday

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=066

      Lifted Index for Wednesday

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=LI&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=066

      Cape for Thursday

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=CAPE&hh2=096&fixhh=1&hh=090

      Lifted Index for Thursday

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=LI&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=090

      Clearly, the bigger threat with the CMC is for Wednesday between 18Z and 0Z next day. Cmc does not have a 21Z chart. I suspect the biggest action is
      between 18Z and 21Z.

      We shall see

  15. Unfortunately chance for formation of a named tropical storm looks favorable. Chance for NC and VA getting some strong winds and rain is possible. Chance for MA getting anything from a tropical storm look unfavorable.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. I wouldn’t be so quick to say it won’t affect New England.

      Surely it is a WATCHER at this point. Let’s hope it turns seaward.

  16. Euro

    CAPE for Wednesday

    http://i.imgur.com/TvzfafY.png?1

    CAPE for Thursday

    http://i.imgur.com/mvGNah6.png?1

    So the Euro depicts a threat for each day. So far ONLY the CMC keeps the threat
    for Wednesday and over night Wednesday and not so much on Thursday, while
    others keep some sort of threat for both days.

    Supposedly there is a CAP for Wednesday. We’ll see if there is enough heating
    for convection to break through it.

    1. The GFDL depicts tropical storm force winds on the Cape and Islands.

      Global models have it taking a right turn out to sea South of us.

      It clearly NEEDS to be watched.

  19. I have the 06Z Lifted indices for the NAM

    Wednesday Lifted Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=LI&hh=060&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Energy Helicity Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=060&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Thursday LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=nam&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=LI&hh2=060&fixhh=1&hh=084

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=084&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=06&mod2=nam&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  20. NWS re: Thursday:
    CLASSIC PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL?????

    THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…

    LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. FOCUS IS ON THE
    CURRENT WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST…WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME THE FIRST TROPICAL SYSTEM OF THE YEAR IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT…RESULTING IN A CLASSIC PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOOD EVENT. WE STILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE WHEN/WHERE THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS…BUT TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARE OFTEN KEY INGREDIENTS FOR A PRE. IF THERE IS A PRE…MODELS USUALLY STRUGGLE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD SET UP. WHETHER THAT WOULD END UP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OR POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY THIS FAR OUT. THERE ALSO MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE THINGS DRY OUT LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE 4TH OF JULY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR…WITH HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR LINGERING WET WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

  21. Good Morning everyone! As I said last night couple things to track this week. Two POTENTIAL thunderstorm days Wednesday and Thursday and the first POTENTIAL named system of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. I am thinking the front coming through that COULD give us thunderstorms will keep whatever this things end up being from having a direct impact here. Just like with the thunderstorm potential this tropical potential needs to be watched.
    6z GFS CAPE and Lift For Wednesday
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014063006&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=063

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014063006&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=063

  23. Hazardous weather outlook is up for the region highlighting the possiblity of strong to severe thunderstorms in the late Wed through Fri time period with the biggest threat being isolated strong to damaging wind gusts with hail being another concern.

  24. What’s this CLASSIC PREDECESSOR HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL
    put out there by the NWS. They think that there is a “possibility” that
    the tropical system interacts with the cold front and the Soupy Humid air mass
    in place and it throws a huge batch of heavy rain in here ahead of the actual
    tropical storm.

    Is this really a possibility?

    Here is one link to a paper on this:

    http://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/research/galarneau_etal_2010_mwr.pdf

    Here is a link to a power point presentation on this:

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

    1. The GFDL track on this tropical system has me somewhat concerned.
      “hopefully” the global models are correct and this system scoots out to sea
      South of our area. Time will tell.

  25. Today officially ends the 2013-2014 snow season! 😀

    Final Logan total = 58.9″ (+15.1″)

    1. Not a bad total at all. “Could” have been much more if all events materialized, but they didn’t. Even so, nice total.

    1. Thanks Ace. CLOSE ENOUGH for concern, imho.

      And if this predecessor event takes place, OUCH!

      1. I agree, too close to dismiss at this point. Many of those tracks give us at least some direct effects. As much as I’d hate to see rain during the holiday, we need it badly

  27. John & Tom,

    Was down your way yesterday. Dropped wife off at a Trunk Sale party in Marshfield
    and then went fishing at HOBOMOCK POND in Pembroke (what a weed infested pond this is) and then ended up at Luddams Ford Pond at Luddams Ford Park on the Hanover/Pembroke Line. Nice. Managed one fish is all. 😀

    1. OS….had I known you were down this way I would have sent my 8-year old bass master to fish with you. This kid is a natural when it comes to fishing. He was so excited last weekend since he caught his first bass with a lure from his kayak.

      1. I know a thing or 2 about catching Bass (Fresh water Large Mouth that is). 😀

        I manage to land fish in the most Heavily Fished areas. 😀

        It is choice of lures and proper location and presentation along
        with the proper line (read that such the fish can’t see the line)

        1. I am always amazed at how patient my son is when he is fishing because he certainly isn’t that way at home! I am sure he could learn a thing or 2 from you about landing the big ones. 🙂

          1. I don’t know about the big ones (largest one I ever caught was only 4 pounds. A nice fish, but a BIG ONE? I don’t think so. A Big one is like 10 pounds), but I don’t get skunked very often. 😀

  28. Those EHI Values you posted Old Salty from the 6z NAM is impressive for here. It still a few days away and a lot could change and will the CAP get broken on Wednesday because if can be broken with the lift and CAPE the models are showing there could Fireworks prior to the 4th courtsey of Mother Nature.
    Going to be watching these model runs with the thunderstorm potential and this area of disturbed weather off the southeast coast.

    1. JJ,

      It seems that the NAM always has the higher EHI values. Have to weigh that
      with the others. For awhile, I honestly thought that there “might” “possibly” be
      a tornado watch in at least part of the area Wedesday and/or Thursday. Looking over the latest data, I’m not feeling that at the moment. Could it change? Sure.
      We’ll keep watching as the new data keeping rolling in.

      Will check the latest SREF instability values. It’s usually a reality check compared to these global models. 😀

  30. If the system becomes tropical, make a close pass or interacts with the cold front, what kind of rain totals are we looking at?

    1. As you indicated, there are too many IFs to make an assessment.

      If you are asking for a wild guess, I’d say something like 2-4 inches, but
      that is a TOTAL GUESS.

      It may not happen at all and I’ll wager TK says it WON’T Happen.

  31. SREF Lifted Index for Wednesday

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014063003/SREF_SFC_LI_f066.gif

    CAPE

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014063003/SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__f066.gif

    Helicity

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014063003/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f066.gif

    Significan Tornado Parameter

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014063003/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f066.gif

    I don’t think that tornadoes will be a major concern. Perhaps and I say perhaps
    an isolated EF0 or EF1????

    Still needs to be watched, but I think Straight line wind and heavy rain will be the main concern. Very RARELY is large hail a concern in our area. “Could” be this time. We shall see.

  32. Good morning. Thank you OS and JJ and all for the links. Interesting week ahead I’d say.

    JR (Ch 7) said that the cold front moving into the area early July 4 might cause some showers and storms but could also push Arthur (if he forms) out to sea.

    1. Don’t necessarily agree with that. In some cases, the Tropical storm can
      interact with the approaching front and cause all sorts of trouble. (Heavy rain, enhanced thunderstorm activity, strong winds etc)

      To be sure, In some cases the front can push an approaching storm out to sea.

      In this case, it remains to be seen. 😀

  33. Straight line wind damage could sometimes cause more damage than a weak EF0 EF1 tornado. The CAP may help us on Wednesday unless some sort of trigger mechanism could break it.
    Heavy rain with the front is certainly a possiblity as the atmosphere is going be rung out like a sponge.

    1. JJ the trigger that “could” break the CAP is the extreme diurnal heating
      with virtually the highest sun angle of the year (OK about 12 days from highest sun angle, but virtually the same). With the CAPE and LI and that heating,
      some convection is LIKELY to break through. That’s what happens in the Mid-West and plains. Often times there is a CAP, but the extreme heating
      causes convection to break through.

      We shall see. Btw, I DO think that the NWS thinks that there WILL be some
      convection, perhaps not as widespread due to the Cap.

      To check how strong the cap is, look at the CIN indices. 😀

      1. CINH index:

        1. What is CINH?

        CINH (Convective Inhibition in units of Joules per kilogram) is anti-CAPE (negative CAPE) in the lower troposphere. This is the region where a parcel of air if raised from the lower PBL would sink back down again. Another term for CINH is a capping layer. The capping layer must be broken before lower PBL based lifting is able to move into the +CAPE region of a sounding and develop into deep convection

        0 – 50 Weak Cap
        51 – 199 Moderate Cap
        200+ Strong Cap

        http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/306/

        FROM 0Z EURO

        CINH 18Z Wednesday

        http://i.imgur.com/Kdlf5Vz.png?1

        You can see that at 18Z Cap IN Boston area is about 200, while it has dropped to the West.

        CINH 0Z Wednesday

        http://i.imgur.com/BHVj9qF.png?1

        By 0Z Cap has been eroded.

        This tells me there WILL be action on Wednesday.

        Thoughts?

        1. It was late last week when the GFS was the only one showing the potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday
          and the other models were not showing anything. Now they all are showing CAPE and Lift some higher than
          others. Keep an eye on the situation YES worried about it NO.

  34. SPC not issuing a slight risk or putting us in the general thunderstorm category for Wednesday as of now. Areas west of SNE they have in the 5% general thunderstorm category. I would be surprised if Wednesday or Thursday were not placed under the general thunderstorm cateogry or even a slight risk based on what were seeing in the models right now.

    1. Honestly, I don’t see how we will NOT be placed under at least a slight chance
      for Severe. I do believe that slight is defined as 15% chance of Severe weather
      within 25 miles of a given location. We shall see.

      SPC tends to be conservative. Some really bad weather often occurs within
      just a slight risk area. I believe the Springfield tornado of June 1, 2011
      was within a slight risk area.

  35. Tropical storm warnings for your 4th is all over the news, great!!!!!!. Im trusting tk on this one but go figure all the weekends have been great. Stay away.

  36. re: Thunderstorm Potential

    12Z NAM has REALLY BACKED OFF
    CAPES

    Wed

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014063012&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=054

    Thurs

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014063012&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=078

    BUT does show the tropical system? IS this the beginning of the interaction
    with the front and possible Predecessor event???

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014063012&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

  38. CAPE both Wed and Thurs between 1,000 – 1,500 across SNE with the latest NAM run. Certainly enough CAPE for some strong thunderstorms. Waiting to see the other 12z runs to see what they show.

  39. Just had a customer that sold his house in wrentham for 80,000 over the asking price, asking 455k sold it in 1 day for 523k, he’s going to Portland Maine, not sure all these over asking prices are good long term, the realotkres are saying this is happening everywhere, have a good day everyone 🙂

    2. This is pretty rare since the appraisal process usually keeps these things from happening. Must have been someone with a huge down payment or just really wanted the house.

      1. Am it’s happening everywhere especially closer to Boston, they just had a 1.1M home sold at 1.33M, if you google it you will see it, good day 🙂

        1. Closer to and in Boston yes. Low inventory combined with desirable locations and sketchy Realtor tactics will do it. No reason for this to happen in Wrentham though.

          1. That’s what I said but it’s even happening in Plainville, people r just trying to find a home to live in to stay in New England 🙂

            1. I guess its a good thing I bought my house when I did. I paid well under the asking price and that was just a year ago.

        1. Wait, I thought people were leaving the area? Does this article mean more people are trying to move in than are moving out?? 😛

          1. Nope it just means they need to ease zoning and start increasing the amount of homes they r building, I remember saying this years ago about not pushing our own away 🙂

            1. If I may make a couple of observations. Yes, people are willing to purchase over asking price in wealthier suburbs of Boston. In good part it is for access to the school systems. Your article link appears to be from RE side and the one thing I have learned is that realtors will put anything out there that they think will scare people into buying.

              As far as houses unavailable. We have the housing. Too many are still stuck behind the curve after the bubble so won’t move. Seniors also are staying put to see if they can regain equity. Houses out your way, Charlie, will be the ones FTHBs are looking for. That is IF they can afford to purchase. Building is not a bad thing as long as it is affordable housing, doesn’t violate zoning and is not the McMansions. There are so many McMansions at the moment on the market that it makes me wonder what is up.

              Commercial building is on the increase in a good part of the area. Houses are being built.

              Sorry if this is confusing. Typing quickly.

  40. Old Salty I saw your comment and your right slight is 15% within a 25 mile area. The Springfield did happen when there was a slight risk and a 5% chance of a tornado that day. Back in May near the Albany, NY area they had an EF 3 tornado and SPC didn’t even highlight the area for tornadoes since the risk was below 2%.

  42. For the house conversation. The amount that my parents bought a 50 year old cape house on 1/3 acre of building area, we could have gotten a 5 acre new house and pool out by where my grandparents live. value drops the further you go from Boston.

  43. 12Z GFS instability indices for Wednesday:

    CAPE:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=060&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=060&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    1. 12Z GFS instability indices for Thursday

      CAPE

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      LI

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      EHI

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=078&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gfs&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  45. No need to do much adjustment to the thinking outlined above.

    Tstorm potential is nil through tomorrow, and very limited Wednesday due to a strong cap.

    Thursday, where does a plume of tropical moisture interact with a frontal boundary? We’ll see. But I have a feeling that we won’t be seeing as widespread rainfall as some are indicating.

    Arthur, or the TD that tried to be Arthur or was formerly Arthur, depending on track, will likely miss just to the SE (may impact Cape/Islands somewhat). Of course, plenty of wiggle room so no solid forecast for that yet.

    Nice to see (sarcasm) that the hype machine in the media is already out of control for late week. May as well cancel Boston’s 4th of July celebration now, right? 😛

    1. Thanks TK.

      TK, can you post about what is needed to break through the CAP?
      I always here about the CAP being broken in the Midwest?

      Many thanks

      1. You need a strong enough updraft, or series of updrafts in the same area. How are you going to get that? Intense heating helps, but is usually not enough. You usually need colliding air masses brought about by a front, a trough, or some type of boundary (outflow or sea breeze), and then that needs to provide enough focus too. I don’t think any of that happens on Wednesday, at least in southeastern New England.

        1. Many thanks. Gottcha.

          I see your point for sure.

          Curious to know WHY the NWS would still say
          there would be “Some” storms around?

          We may escape the brunt of this situation.

          IF I may for others here…from National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office, Norman, OK:

          Cap (or Capping Inversion) – A layer of relatively warm air aloft (usually several thousand feet above the ground) which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms. Air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air, which inhibits their ability to rise further. As such, the cap often prevents or delays thunderstorm development even in the presence of extreme instability. However if the cap is removed or weakened, then explosive thunderstorm development can occur. See CIN and Fig. 6, sounding.

          The cap is an important ingredient in most severe thunderstorm episodes, as it serves to separate warm, moist air below and cooler, drier air above. With the cap in place, air below it can continue to warm and/or moisten, thus increasing the amount of potential instability. Or, air above it can cool, which also increases potential instability. But without a cap, either process (warming/moistening at low levels or cooling aloft) results in a faster release of available instability – often before instability levels become large enough to support severe weather development.

  46. Tk I know there is some uncertainty but you still feeling good about Saturday . My guest list keeps getting bigger.

  47. 12Z CMC instability indices for Wednesday

    CAPE:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=054&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  48. 12Z CMC Instability indices for Thursday

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=084&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=LI&hh=084&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=084&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    It appears the CMC has the worst of the parameters for late on Wednesday and if
    the CAP is that strong, then we “may” escape with not much.

    We shall see.

  50. In regards to the CAP I know NWS out of Taunton was hinting in their discussion yesterday western areas of New England stood the best chance of the CAP being broken Wednesday. Since I am in the western part of CT going to be keeping an eye on the situation and see if that CAP can be broken.
    12z GFS Helicity Values link you posted Old Salty for Wednesday has my area in a 1 but 1.5 2 area just over the CT boarder.

  52. Some local media already saying that a tropical storm is “highly likely” on July 4 is very irresponsible in my opinion. Hype at its worst.

    And I don’t want to hear anything about “we just want people to be prepared for the worst”. They don’t. They are sensationalizing to get ratings. It’s the incorrect use of the medium, and it’s a shame.

    1. Agree totally, even if it does come.

      This has been a steady migration over the last 10-20 years. It’s WORSE
      than ever now.

      I’ve been posting maps here, not as Hype, but informational for the bloggers.

      NO ONE here has forecasted that we WILL get it. NO ONE.

        1. The euro has this thing the strongest, GFS weaker but pretty similar as far as positioning

          1. The Euro USED to be a pretty decent hurricane
            forecaster. Remember SANDY. HOWEVER, Since the so-called upgrade (downgrade?), perhaps not so much. We shall see.

  53. Thanks for the EURO link Old Salty and the explanation of what the numbers mean.
    GFS to me seems to be the most aggressive with the 12z runs for both Wednesday and Thursday.

  54. FRom SPC:
    …EASTERN U.S…
    WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
    NEGLIGIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY…THE EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL
    REMAINS UNCLEAR. LOW /5 PERCENT/ SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
    BEEN INTRODUCED…MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE 850 MB THERMAL
    RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
    SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
    REGION…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN
    PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES. THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE
    HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY
    AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
    UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NO LONGER
    BE PARTICULARLY STEEP WITH WHAT MAY STILL BE LEFT OF THE
    ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER PLUME…SEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS
    COULD STILL SUPPORT SIZABLE CAPE.

  56. Most important days this week. Wednesday and friday how do they look. noaa wants to make me cry. lol

  58. Looks like 88 was the HIGH for Logan. Did any spots touch 90?

    Highest I could find was Lawrence at 89. Most obs sites reached between
    86 and 88. 😀

  59. Latest GFDL forecast 12Z

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2014063012-invest91l/slp18.png

    Latest HWRF forecast 12Z

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2014063012-invest91l/slp20.png

    12Z CMC

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=114

    12Z GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

    1. Hey, the HWRF actually has a small patch of HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
      It’s OFF SHORE, but it IS there.

  60. The hazrdous weather outlook is no longer up for the region for the Wednesday Friday timeframe. I have a feeling that might change.

    1. By looking at the NAM, Thursday is the day for concern.

      We shall see.

      Probably YET another case of the models over cooking parameters and it
      in the end gets our attention for no good reason at all!! 😀

      Right now, I’d be more concerned with the Tropical Storm potential
      RUINING the 4th of JULY for all of us!

  62. With the latesr NWS discussion from Taunton, they are still taking about
    the CAP possibly being broken on Wednesday, especially Western sections.

    Then they are still hyping this possible Predecessor Rain Event in association with the yet unformed Tropical Storm.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    1. I can see it forming, but I can’t see it making its way to NE. Anything is possible, but possible does not mean probable.

        1. Hurricane Bertha hit New England as a Tropical Storm July 13, 1996`

          Hurricane Agnes Category 1 hit as Tropical Storm June 22, 1972

          Hurricane Alma Category 3 hit as Extr. Storm June 13, 1966

          Hurricane Cindy Category 1 hit as Tropical Storm July 11, 1959

          It doesn’t happne often, but there SURE DO HAPPEN!

            1. I’m honestly beginning to think that it
              DOES get up here. We shall see.

              The 18Z HWRF is scary!

  63. Eric is the most pessimistic, not that Harvey and Chris Lambert are expressing much confidence either. Eric has all the tropical moisture shoved northward into NE and any rain not ending until just as the concert begins.

    Hopefully future forecasts change considerably for the better the next couple of days before Friday. It appears at this point that Thursday is a washout for sure.

  69. 7 and then 4 seem to be playing Arthur down. I’m surprised at 5…their headlines on home page says high risk of tropical storm on 4th. Did 7s management take over 5? 5 usually is conservative.

      1. Really. Hmmm. I read Todd’s blog. Didnt see Eric’s. I have seen what Pete said…just JR and chris. So far with other tropical systems (I forget the year before but Irene and sandy). Pete has been spot on so I’m curious.

        2. yeah i actually look for pete’s tropical storm forecasts since I think he right alot of the times with that kind of stuff.

  70. This certainly not a boring week here in SNE weatherwise. Two POTENTIAL thunderstorm days and tracking a disturbance off the southeast coast.
    Two things look pretty certain this week humidity is going up and everywhere in SNE is going to get wet at some point before the weeks out. The things that need to be answered the strength of these POTENTIAL thunderstorms and what kind of impact if any is this disturbance off the southeast coast going to have here.

  71. I see a 40mph tropical storm depression passing 100-300 miles east of the cape, this won’t be more than a typical rainstorm, It may ruin plans but it won’t be much of a storm. 🙂

    1. Well with a bounce house as part of the two year old bday party on sat any wind won’t be good. Hmmmm

      1. I really hope it’s not humid and rainy/stormy/sultry type of weekend, a lot of the fireworks will cancel. Keeping my fingers crossed, goodnight Vicki 🙂

  72. Should start seeing a trend further SE for the track soon.

    Front is also going to pull a big fail both Wednesday & Thursday (though greater chance of some activity Thursday versus Wednesday).

    1. Hi all – check out the solution on the chart that takes it on a beeline to Miami and the Keys!

  76. I actually caught channel 7 this am and they were not worried about this, in fact he said it goes well east with some rain on the front itself 🙂

    1. Jr said front pushing Arthur out would grab moisture from Arthur and bring it here thurs and fri. He thought drying out for fireworks fri night and weekend

  78. Graphic from Channel for re: Arthur

    WBZ Weather

    The National Hurricane Center now has a hurricane off our coast Friday night…terrible news for the Fireworks. There is some good news though…the NW flank of tropical systems as they move north are always weak and lack wind…but it will likely be loaded with moisture and lead to heavy rain and downpours as the system interacts with a front over New England

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/t1.0-9/q80/s720x720/10404283_663472513728399_4140349006747707710_n.jpg

  79. re: Severe Weather Threat

    NOT impressed with the Euro instability parameters. They show that convection
    is possible, but not great shakes.

    GFS has the most robust parameters.

    So we shall see. TK seems to be downplaying it.

    Last night BB didn’t even mention severe weather, he was more concerned
    with Arthur getting us very wet and he was dealing with time line for rain
    stoppage. He felt it would quit sometime during the afternoon of the 4th, sparing
    the big celebrations. Let us hope so.

  80. Are Wednesday’s possible storms part of the same system that caused the Derecho in Chicago last night? That was one heck of a storm! Which got me thinking about the June 29, 2012 Derecho that traveled 700 miles through 10 states – to the East Coast!

  81. WBZ seems to be taking the most impactful approach to Arthur for us in SNE. The 5am cone from NHC has way too much of our area in it for my comfort. Let’s see if it starts to trend south and east but if anything it has come a bit more in our direction IMO

  82. SPC take on Thursday thunderstorm Potential
    SOME INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
    THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AND FRONTAL FORCING
    …COUPLED WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT…MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
    CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
    NORTHEAST URBAN CORRIDOR. HOWEVER…DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
    LIMITED SURFACE HEATING DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER…WEAK
    MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…UNCERTAIN INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
    MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST…SEVERE
    POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW OR UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME.

    2. NWS re: Wednesday

      SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE A CAP BUT IT IS NOT STRONG AND WE EXPECT SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

    2. NWS re: Thursday and Arthur

      AHEAD OF THIS EVENT…THERE ARE
      INDICATIONS THAT THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM…RESULTING IN A PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT.

      1. Looks like most news outlets are now calling for that thursday into the morning hours on friday. Many towns have fireworks thursday night which will most likely be cancelled or postponed

  87. To add to what you said Old Salty from the NWS out of Taunton there thinking there could be a few severe storms Wednesday.
    There is a good amount of CAPE and Lift for both Wednesday and Thursday for thunderstorm development. The CAP maybe a limiting factor on Wednesday and for Thursday cloud cover.

  88. Good morning all!

    I’ll be updating sometime today. No big changes at this time but will be detailing the Friday forecast since it’s closer.

  89. Hazardous weather outlook is up for the region highlighting the possibility of a few strong storms that could reach severe levels with the main threats being isolated damaging wind gusts with a secondary concern for large hail. The best chance for this would be along and west of a line through New Hampshire Worcester and Putnam, CT.

  93. Dewpoints are up there, low 70s in many spots making it feel a lot more uncomfortable. That combined with temps already in the low to mid 80s and set to approach 90, it will feel gross out there today.

  94. That is good Convective Available Potenial Energy (CAPE) shown by that model. I am curious to see what the other 12z runs show for tomorrow. If the CAP could be broken there is plenty of CAPE and Lift for thunderstorm development.
    I wish on the instant weather maps with the NAM it would show the lift index values like the GFS does.

          1. Good lift and EHI values in that 1 to 1.5 range across SNE. I am not getting excited until I see other
            models converge on that solution. To me the NAM likes to over cook things just like in the winter with
            snowfall amounts.

  95. We have Arthur as of 11AM. Still forecast to become a hurricane. Southeastern MA still in the cone of uncertainty with the latest track but as I said yesterday don’t see this having a direct impact on SNE.

  96. Tk looks to be right, the 11am is slightly eastward, looks like a complete miss with just frontal storms which might be numerous with front 🙂

  97. How much will Arthur kick up seas along our coast? Was planning to hit the beach saturday, might be some nice swells coming in

  98. Is Tom down in the Carolina’s right now? He might be dealing with a Cat 1 hurricane in a couple days. Arthur is really starting to look healthy. Track forecast to come right over the outer banks

  101. Yes, it’s officially gross outside. But, we’ve been blessed with a really nice June. That is, one without much humidity or extreme heat. We’ll see how the rest of the summer goes.

    We are due for some major downpours. Grass is getting mighty brown. Could use a drink or two.

    It would be rare indeed if the 4th becomes an all-day rain event. I can’t remember one in my lifetime. T-storms yes, but not an all-day rain storm. It looks like most of this next system will have deposited its rain by Friday morning. We shall see. Merging of systems is not out of the question, and sometimes they can have a very long reach in spite of being considerably off-shore.

    Of note is the cold summer thus far up north. This webcam tells it all. There’s still ice in the waterways of Nunavut. Quite unusual on the 1st of July. Remember, their summer is a 6-week event that’s really over by early August. Ice starts forming again in September. Temps there have also been well below normal, and project to continue their cool trend.

    http://kimmirutweather.com/

    Does this mean anything for us folks living in more habitable parts of North America? Well, I think it may. June saw cold front after cold front sweeping through from a rather cool Canada. That could start happening again, which would be fine with me.

  103. Latest SPC Outlook tomorrow has slight risk (15%) from CT River Valley west. General thunderstorm risk (5%) rest of SNE with the exception of southeastern MA.

  105. Cloudy and quite breezy in Plymouth. I was listening to WBZ radio a bit ago and BB thinks Friday will be just fine.

    1. I think the afternoon/night will be ok for cookouts and fireworks, but morning to early afternoon might not be

  106. The occasional cloud cover is helping to keep temps from maxing out today. I think we all fall short of 90.

      1. It certainly felt warmer today with the increased humidity, but yesterday was actually the warmer day. I think tomorrow will be the warmest most uncomfortable day of the week.

  107. 12z CMC CAPE Lift and EHI Values for tomorrow. First time posting link from this site here on the blog.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=042&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=LI&hh=042&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=EHI&hh=042&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=042&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  108. 12z CMC CAPE Lift and EHI For Thursday.
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=066&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=LI&hh=066&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=EHI&hh=066&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=066&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  109. Re: Arthur

    Euro takes it the farthest out to sea of all the Global models.

    The 2 hurricane models are getting scary

    12Z GFDL 84 hours

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2014070112-one01l/slp14.png

    90 hours:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2014070112-one01l/slp15.png

    HWRF at 84 hours

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2014070112-one01l/slp14.png

    90 hours

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2014070112-one01l/slp14.png

    That’s 81.9 knots or 94 mph top winds at this latitude!!!

  110. Arthur now with winds 50mph and pressure down 1003mb. Still forecast to become a hurricane and southeastern MA still in the cone of uncertainty with the latest track.

  112. The intensity went up some with the latest forecast on Arthur. Has it getting a 90mph category 1 hurricane when it gets up near the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully this stays over the fish and the impacts on the east coast will be just big waves.

  113. 18Z NAM CApe for tomorrow

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=024&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=024&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=024&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=024&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Cape for Thurs

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=CAPE&hh=045&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=045&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=18&stn=LI&hh=045&map=na&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=nam&hh2=045&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  114. If I had to choose a least fav weather….and not saying I don’t like it because it is summer….it would be HHH. Either I’m getting old and more tolerant or …..well, I don’t know what the or is…..but I thought today was hot but lovely. We sat out by the pool….I use the term pool VERY loosely…..and watched my grandson play. The breeze kept it quite comfy.

    1. Oh and I’d love good wishes….I think mac is coming home Friday if all tests remain as they are 😀

  118. On the golf course and the mosquitos are almost non existant. One benefit of very little rain.

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