Party Crasher

386 Comments

8:38AM

The tropics chose to get active early in the season and the result is Arthur, which will pass just southeast of southern New England as a strong tropical storm or more likely a category 1 hurricane on the evening of Independence Day, forcing many changes to plans to celebrate this birthday. The problems will come in 2 forms: 1) Heavy rain that will result from tropical moisture interacting with a slow-moving cold front, and 2) Gusty winds over Cape Cod and the Islands which will be closest to the storm center as it passes. The time frame for the heaviest rain is  Friday afternoon and evening from the Boston area southeastward through Cape Cod. The strongest wind would take place Friday night, again confined mainly to the Cape & Islands region. But let’s back up a bit. Before that, we have another muggy and very warm day for today, and with the approaching slow-moving frontal boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms can erupt any time from midday on. These will be mostly scattered or in clusters, so while it is possible that some areas escape them, anywhere that does see activity can experience a strong thunderstorms with torrential downpours and possible flooding. With a little luck, as far as eastern MA and RI and the NH Seacoast is concerned, any activity will lift to the north and push back a bit to the northwest in the evening, allowing a better chance to get fireworks displays completed in the cities/towns that are holding them, Boston included. Once we get beyond that threat and the Friday “fun”, drier and warm air will spill in from the west making for a fabulous weekend (Saturday-Sunday).  Some heat and humidity returns early next week but is quickly broken by another cold front and a risk of showers/thunderstorms later Monday and especially Tuesday. Drier air arrives by the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sun & clouds. Muggy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible any time from 11AM on. Highs upper 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast & Cape Cod/Islands. Cluster or line of showers/thunderstorms may form in east central MA into southern NH but should remain west of the Boston area where only isolated showers/storms are possible. Activity diminishing late. Humid. Lows in the 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain and embedded thunderstorms redeveloping from SW to NE during the morning-midday, heaviest during the afternoon-evening especially in a band along and E of I-495. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming N 5-15 MPH most areas but 15-25 MPH with possible stronger gusts over Cape Cod.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain/thunderstorms especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, RI early, ending west to east, lastly over Cape Cod. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Clouds and a shower possible Cape Cod early, clearing at dawn elsewhere. Clearing Cape Cod and mostly sunny to partly cloudy elsewhere midday. Mostly sunny afternoon. Drier. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 80s, 70s Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 87.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

386 thoughts on “Party Crasher”

  2. Notes on the Pops Fireworks.

    Storrow Drive closes at noon.
    Memorial Drive closes at 6 PM.
    You cannot get onto the Esplanade grass til 5 PM.
    Though the Pops is playing, there is a not a guarantee of fireworks there tonight.
    If weather turns rough, there is a contingency plan to move fireworks to Sat night.

    1. What about all the other events that usually go on in the area during the day? Its been a while since ive gone to the esplanade but arent there other smaller performances during the day or did we really just sit there on the lawn since 5am until the pops would start? lol

    2. I always recall hundreds of vendors along the charles during the day, i wonder if they will all be there today

  3. Thanks again TK!!!

    Here’s a repost that I put on the other blog before I realized it had been updated:

    Old Salty says:
    July 3, 2014 at 8:53 AM
    re: Concert Reschedule

    On the channel 4 news last evening at 11PM, they clearly indicated that
    the concert could NOT be moved to Saturday because many of the musicians
    were unavailable. SO if that is accurate, it is the definitive answer and it was
    mentioned here yesterday by someone. 😀
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    July 3, 2014 at 8:55 AM
    What a STINKER out there today. BRUTAL

    Hey Tom it’s just as bad here as down there.

    It was 80 at 7:30AM and brutally humid! Dew point 71 (OK that’s not 76, but it’s bad)

    Coming into work there was BLAZING sunshine and I thought that the atmosphere
    would REALLY destabilize. Now there is ample sunshine, but there is cloudiness.
    It’s going to be a race, but my gut says watch out. We shall see.

    1. Very healthy on the north and west side of Arthur. The more convection on that side the more there will be to interact with the front further up the coast and throw it at us tomorrow

  5. Arthur is up to 80 MPH with central pressure at 983 mb and it continues to
    strengthen.

  7. Probably made the right call on the fireworks. Better safe than sorry, but it’s still a bit disappointing not to celebrate Fourth of July in Boston on the actual 4th of July 😛

  8. Thanks TK.
    No changes with the probabilities from the SPC hail 5% wind 15% tornado 2% in the slight risk area which stayed the same in the latest update putting most of SNE with the exception of eastern areas in.
    Thunderstorm Impact Scale:
    Wind – Elevated
    Flooding – Elevated
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

    1. HRRR Capes approaching 3,000 joules in Eastern sections with LI
      around -7.

      However, simulated Radar indicates DRY in Eastern sections through late
      evening, so We Shall See.

  9. One thing to note on the Hurricane. Normally strongest winds are on the East side. According to the Weather Channel this morning they said the strongest winds for Arthur were actually on the West side.

  10. Thanks TK! Would really love if we could get the Plymouth parade in tomorrow morning before the rain starts.

  11. HERE WE GO AGAIN!!!

    WINDS just went CALM at LOGAN!!!

    So, although a SEA Breeze would be MOST WELCOME today, it will further
    REDUCE chances for any convection at coastal locales. 😀

    1. We saw yesterday with the storms as a pretty good line of storms formed but as they tracked past the CT River Valley
      the line of storms fell apart.
      I am seeing more clouds where I am so far although there has been breaks of hazy sunshine. I always call it self destructing
      sunshine since the more sun will further destablize the atmosphere. There is already a good amount of CAPE and Lift being
      shown by the models so more sunshine COULD increase the CAPE and Lift some.

  12. T-storm threat is still there, but appears to be diminished for the coast, as TK points out in his forecast. Thank you, TK, for your forecast and all you do.

    I hope the decision to reschedule turns out well, but it could turn out poorly given the weather uncertainty. Our office is letting out early. The afternoon rush home and to the Esplanade will likely be difficult. We’ll see.

    By the way, the security this year around the Esplanade (I live practically next to the Hatchshell) is lax or non-existent. Almost no police presence. I ran the Esplanade Park unimpeded (could not run on the Esplanade last year). There’s even less police presence than two years ago (prior to the Marathon bombing). I’m very surprised, quite frankly.

    1. That might change. Since the date changed, it might take a little longer to get security in place. Hundreds of people had to be rescheduled.

        1. Ace, wasn’t a rehearsal show scheduled for tonight? I know in past years, especially since 9/11 there’s been a heavy police presence in the area on the 3rd.

          1. You’re right, it was, so they are probably contracted today too. It was more of a joke than anything else, im sure there will be a big police presence tonight 🙂

      2. I hear you. But, every year they put up a command post outside my door around 5am. So far, nothing. And no checks of anyone walking over the Fiedler bridge. I’m surprised. I’m not an alarmist and do not expect anything bad to happen. But, given what did happen, they should have a larger police presence. Last year looked too much like a fortress, perhaps. But this year’s the opposite. Security will of course increase as the day progresses.

        1. You’re right Josh about a heavy police presence in past years on the 3rd . Wonder what’s up with that?

  13. I know Arthur is starting to turn more NNE as of the 8am advisory, but man, it looks like it will make landfall well inland in NC.

      1. Never had one. Closest was 1 foot with an 8 iron on a par 3 of course. Where was your Ace, Ace?

        I witnessed one. Was playing at Putterham with a neighbor and he aced the 17th. Shot took one bounce and right into the hole.

        1. I’ve had 2 in my lifetime, one at Heather Hill in Plainville on the 1st hole on the north course. It was only my 3rd or 4th time playing golf, the hole was 150 yards and i hit driver, lol. I topped the ball and rolled it up to the green and it went right in. The 2nd one I was on my high school golf team playing a practice round at Locust Valley in Attleboro on the 8th hole. That one was a lot more legit, lol. Still searching for my 3rd 😀

  19. If that CAPE and Lift is down that will make a big difference in strength of thunderstorms. Have to see what the other 12z runs show and if they show the same wonder if there is going to be an adjustment by the SPC in the slight risk area when there next update comes out around 12:30 pm.

    1. Don’t you agree that is a pretty big shift?

      Just wondering IF this means MORE of a PREDECSSOR EVENT happening.
      A HUGE rainmaker as Arthur interacts with the front and trough and throws
      ginormous amounts of RAIN up here.

      12Z NAM is hinting at that as the run continues. We shall see.

  20. I think that is a big shift. Your looking at values with the latest run of the NAM CAPE across SNE that range from 1,000 – 1,500.
    Previously some models including the NAM were indicating CAPE Values of 2,000 or more. I am very interested if the other models lower the CAPE and Lift Index values with their 12z runs. If they do the thunderstorms may not be as potent today.
    I am seeing more clouds than sunshine where I am so far today and the more cloud cover the less the atmosphere will destablize.

  23. I would never have thought that leaving for Jamaica Saturday at 6am when we booked back in February that there would be something tropical here and not there 🙂

    1. OS, i was reading a post from our old friend DT on facebook and he was saying how terrible a model the HWRF is. I think that solution is actually pretty reasonable and its been consistent with its outcomes

      1. That’s funny. Wasn’t something posted here yesterday saying
        that the HWRF was a very fine model? So I don’t know.
        Perhaps TK can provide the real skinny on it????

        1. From what i read and posted yesterday, it seemed like a very good model, only model to really consider a lot of real time surface variables. However, DT disagrees. Maybe TK can shed some light on the debate

          1. Thanks ACE. I hope so.
            Not sure we can trust DT anyway.
            I’ll believe what TK says. 😀

  26. TK, what do u think the conditions will be at the beaches on saturday? Will there still be some effects from Arthur?

    1. Tom, it sure looks like you’re going to take a direct hit.

      You don’t have any wind equipment where you are, do you?

      How’s the wind now?

      Keep the reports coming because BELIEVE me, we are all interested.

      AND STAY SAFE no matter what!

      1. Thanks, we will stay safe !

        The wind is out of the southeast, maybe 10 mph when it is not raining. When it pours, like it is now, there are some gusts a bit stronger, maybe 15-20 mph ??

        No wind equipment, but I’ll keep checking the Wilmington ob and guessing myself.

        Impressive torrent right now, wow !!!!

    2. I was thinking that when i looked at the radar u posted earlier this morning. That eyewall was getting very close to land with minimal eastward movement. I think he hits further inland that forecast which could impact its later movement as it gets closer up the coast. That trough is really digging into the SE US and not pushing east

  31. Off to Boston!
    A crew of 4: My son, my friends Lynda & Emily (the same Emily that posts here), and me.
    Wish us luck!

  33. Arthur’s eastward movement will be fighting with a large stalled area of low pressure way up in the North Atlantic along with some developing blocking in the atmosphere. It will be a real squeeze play. I think those variables are a bit stronger than the front and trough on the east coast and he stays just west of center through the entirety.

  34. Hi everyone –

    Happy 4th!

    What is the consensus on rain from Boston northwards tomorrow? We’re heading up to our sailboat, which is moored in Salem Harbor. Will we miss the worst of it?

    I’m hoping it rains on my bone dry garden in Quincy!

    Amy

    1. Indications are heaviest rain starting around 11am and continuing into the evening hours. You won’t want to be out in a sailboat tomorrow!

  35. 11am advisory on Arthur, winds up to 90mph. Movement still NNE but increasing in forward speed to 14mph. If it maintains NNE movement it will come ashore between Wilmington, NC and Jacksonville, NC sometime tonight. NHC has finally made a western correction.

    1. Wilmington, NC. About 2 miles inland (westward) from the ocean and about 15 miles north of that southwardmost tip of land, where the mouth of the Cape Fear River is.

      Happy Birthday AceMaster !

        1. I blinked, Arthur wins.

          I have to admit, there’s some part of me that wants to see a little something ….. At the same time, if the motion continues as is, we’re going to get the eye wall and I’m not so sure we need that !

    1. I expect more western corrections today. I just saw a graphic on Mike’s facebook page with the latest NHC track in pink with all other major model tracks superimposed, and ALL of those tracks were west of the official NHC track

  38. JJ 12Z GFS at 3 hours out or 15Z has WAY more CAPE than the 12Z NAM run.
    Not sure how that will translate. Let’s watch and enjoy. 😀

  39. Hey Tom, watch out for any possible tornado spin ups. You are in PRIME location
    for that.

  40. Matt Noyes thinks showers and storms will be widespread in the boston area between 3-7pm today with all action ending by 7pm. He’s basing it on experimental guidance that was very accurate in predicting yesterday’s weather.

  41. The 12z GFS is further west, its right up over Wilmington and over Pamlico Sound.

    If its ever correct, the Outer Banks get the eastern side.

    1. Seems like the 12z model runs are trending westward just a bit more !

      Recon plane has pressure 1mb lower than 11am update, at 980mb.

      Its early July, right ???

  46. These tropical systems have minds of their own and don’t always behave. A good example of this was Charley in 2004 which was forecasted to make Landfall in the Tampa area but as we know the right hand turn came sooner and ended up making landfall in Punta Gorda Florida way south of where the models were forecasting it to make landfall.

  47. Plymouth has rescheduled the parade and fireworks for Saturday, July 12th. The company that insures the barge will not allow it to travel following a storm.

    1. That is self destructing sunshine as that will further destablize the atmosphere. You step outside it is quite humid which
      is one ingredient needed for thunderstorm development and add sunshine and a front coming in to provide lift you have
      the possiblity of strong to severe storms.
      The sun is out where I am in CT.

  49. Storrow Drive now closing at 1pm to allow people taking a half day to get home without too many delays.

    1. I hope he’s wrong. But, I fear he may be right. Why did they reschedule to the 3rd? I don’t understand it, if safety and lack of chaos are the ciry’s main concerns. Storrow is already de facto closed on one side, basically, as a truck has crashed into an overpass going eastbound. Westbound is open but not for long.

  52. Our office is closing at 2PM. I sent out email to all and initiated robo call to our
    staff out in the field. SWEEET!!!!!!

  53. Although GFS comes closer, it appears to be weaker?
    Probably due to more of a landfall in NC???

    1. Most likely that’s the reason, but it could pick up a little more strength when it passes NC.

  55. I believe some chance of Arthur reaching a Cat 2 in the NC area. Not sure but looking a little more powerful.

  56. Hmmm…

    HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11…CORRECTED
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
    1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

    CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED IN SUMMARY BLOCK TO 10 MPH

    …ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST…
    .

    QuoteINTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
    AREA…PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

  57. Tornado warnings popping up here and there in Arthur’s path.

    NWS TORNADO WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
    SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

    1. Also, a special marine warning on a water spout offshore with a thunderstorm moving NW at 35 mph.

      Hearing lots of thunder.

      Storm is moving south of us.

      1. Big time, that’s more than close for the Cape, it’s basically a hit. There’d be damage, winds of hurricane force on the entire Cape with winds more like 85mph on Nantucket. That is the western side of guidance though, still not much evidence to support it coming that close.

          1. About right. I see this as a possible Cat 2 and then back to a Cat 1 when it reaches our neck of the woods.

            1. Longshot – Weather channel had it up to 110 after departing NC then 90 to 80 out past our area.

  59. Got a couple gusts on the current thunderstorm to 30-35 mph.

    Dark skies on the Wrightsville Beach cam, with some very low lying dark clouds.

    1. GEEZ, it would have been helpful HAD I actually read it.

      It SAYS EF2+ tornadoes MODERATE RISK!!! Now that is SERIOUS!!!!

      1. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
        A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
        ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

        1. On Nexrad there was a very brief tornadic signature right
          over Willmington!!!

          Anything there Tom?

            1. Wow! You are in the middle of the ACTION!!!

              What does the family think?
              Is the wife scared?

  61. I think Mac said the PGA is playing in Nova Scotia this weekend??? JJ, is that correct? If so, may not be a good place to be.

    1. The eye (such as it is) seems to wobble first NW the NE then NW again. At least to my aging eyes.

  63. 12Z CMC-RDPS / Explorer

    Arthur

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=036

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=009&fixhh=1&hh=006

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=LI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=LI&hh2=009&fixhh=1&hh=006

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=006&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=006&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  66. Really nice cumulus popping all over here now. Looks like trouble brewing. We shall
    see.

  67. Eye really emerging in last 1/2 hr to 1 hr on satellite.

    I think there’s more of a northeastward movement to the motion.

    Local Wilmington NWS office says 40 miles SE of Wilmington at its closest pass.

  70. It appears the lines are traveling to the northeast. I got a txt saying severe tstorm watch for this area from NWS but then they tend to mis-txt a lot so I don’t know. The clouds are building here as well and it is HOT.

    Tom – thank you for all of the updates.

  72. the severe thunderstorm watch is in affect for western, central and northeast massachusetts. northern and southwest ct. NH and VT. yesterdays watch did not include northeast mass and southeast NH

    1. I took quick look and looking at it quick it looked like a carbon copy of where the severe thunderstorm watch was yesterday.
      One severe storm north of Springfield other severe storms out in PA Upstate NY.

    1. Agreed. The recon plane just extrapolated a pressure of 977mb, down another 3 mb.

      Think it may have just briefly down a northward jog. Looks like core of eye wall is perhaps 40 miles to our south.

      If it misses, it wont be by much.

  74. Any thoughts on what towns will hit the jackpot on rainfall tomorrow? Channel 7 is saying downpours Boston and points southeast, dry elsewhere. Will Cape Ann miss the heaviest rain?

    1. I don’t see them, longshot – just from Ware west or is that considered Worcester area? And some cells popped up just over Holden and are traveling NE but no warning that I can see. It is getting juicier.

    1. What is Mac watching in Nova Scotia 🙂 I think he’s been “incarcerated” too long and has resorted to repeats of repeats of tournaments.!!!! He said it was showing the Halifax area. Thanks!

  81. It is quite ironic that hurricane “Arthur” which has certainly greatly impacted the 4th Esplanade Concert and that the long time Pops conductor Arthur Fiedler (1930-1979) had the idea for these free concerts to be held on the 4th of July. I believe the concerts started soon after Fiedler became the 18th Pops conductor and the Hatch Shell itself was built sometime later (1940’s?). I just thought of the “connection” between the two.

    Also it will be interesting if hurricane Arthur will end up being “retired” but at the same time causes only minimal damage especially for NC…we will see.

  82. It’s FILTHY outside. Just came in from an errand. Absolutely BRUTAL.

    91.8 here!!

    HOTTER than yesterday. No ONE knows how to forecast HIGH temperatures.
    Only in the 80s today my ass!!!!

  83. Arthur roughly 200 miles SW of Hatteras. Winds at 95, gusts at 110-115. 980 MB. Travelling at roughly 12-13 MPH. Track has seen slight wobbles. Evacuations in motion. Other NC towns considering curfews.

    All the NC ferry services coming to an end at 5 PM. On Fri around 5 AM, Hatteras will see sustained winds at 60-75MPH. Surge will be 3-5 feet.

    Not trying to hype anything, but I do feel to a degree that Arthur was originally somewhat underestimated.

    1. Ya think?

      Tom may be in danger.

      This may make landfall Just South and West of Willmington, unless it
      Jogs to the East really soon.

    1. towards the end of that satilite run it looks like it shakes north/northeast a tad

    2. The western movement may be another wobble, but what concerns me is that everyone forecasts a NNE or NE track —- that’s just about the point where the herd mentality takes over and then the storm shows us that it has a mind of its own.

  88. Lights occasionally flickering, so …. just in case.

    Winds frequently gusting over 30 now.

    Do think, with the wobbles and all, that the center will still pass just S and E of Wilmington.

    Boy, these things are very compact and the difference over tens of miles is huge.

    Thinking 40-60 mph winds btwn 5:30 and 7.

    We’ll see, hope I can keep updating. 🙂

    1. Please take care!! I lived through a tornado, lost my home to an earthquake and yet hurricanes are what am most concerned about.

      1. Thanks Longshot, we are !

        I’m tracking, everyone in the house asks for updates ….. We’ve watched a few movies and now, they are all playing Wii.

        Meanwhile, I have rulers and I’m lining them up against the center on satellite and radar and trying to get a future track. 🙂

        OS, its close on that northern and eventual western flank. Very close. About 10 miles south at Kure Beach on the web cam, it looks twice as bad.

  90. Just saw that. Tornado up to 4:45 pm for that area. Another tornado warning in Upstate NY. Reading the discussion with this severe thunderstorm watch they did mention the possiblity of a brief tornado somewhere in the watch box.

  91. According to today’s Boston Herald, the concert never had a chance of being rescheduled for Saturday due to the following:

    1. Boston Police not enough staffing…most of the BPD force begin their vacations on Saturday not to mention overtime pay.

    2. Beach Boys are scheduled to play in New York on Saturday.

    3. Pops do not want to perform on Saturday…no specific reason.

  92. Officials trying to verify whether tornado occurred in Rockingham County. There was rotation. Also hail did occur. I did hear that thousands of lightning strikes did occur.

    1. The specific location is eastern Rockingham County just east of I-95 and Route 1. No tornado has been confirmed as of yet. Warning set to expire very shortly.

  93. They will have send a team from the local NWS office out there to investigate.
    Old Salty I saw the 18z NAM you posted with the CAPE. That model really jumped with CAPE compared to 12z run. NWS out of Upton, NY was mentioning in their discussion CAPE between 3,000 – 4,000 and that is what that model is showing.
    The sun is out where I am and I am waiting to see if any action happens.

  97. Arthur is about 700 miles away from Boston, travelling at 13 MPH and of course, it will pick up speed.

    1. Looking really fine so far.
      There isn’t a rat’s chance in hell convection gets into the City this evening.
      IF we get anything, it will be a rumble or 2 of thunder around or after midnight, long after fireworks are complete. 😀

      1. The city of Boston is VERY fortunate…nasty storms well N & W but moving NE and not EAST…WHEW!

  102. In light of Philip’s comment, we have not discussed an all important event 🙂 — the Sox are scheduled to play the Orioles at 1:35 PM tomorrow. Chances?

    1. As Mark Rosenthal used to say on air during his TV broadcasts: “Slim and none and slim just left town”. 😀

    1. Track definitely has shifted west so T.S. winds around the Cape will be a concern now.

  104. It is a good thing that the Red Sox have the night off…otherwise traffic would be even worse.

  105. My brother and I were in the pool, saw clouds moving in , nothing major since there was no thunder or lightning and there was sun. 5 minutes later we were inside with thunder and lightning with about 6 to 8 minutes of rain. going to go back in it in a few minutes though it has gotten cooler out

  106. Hey folks, wow what a storm I just drove by, I was in andover near the tewksbury line and it was hailing about nickel size and very windy and heavy heavy rain! It was hailing about pea size hail towards the end while the sun was out! I got soo excited like a 5 year old getting a toy lol. I took a small video I am going to try to post

    1. Even from framingham I could see the black clouds up that way. Glad you are ok and would love to see video

  107. Correction…Logan hit 92 today which was hotter than expected (mid-80’s) by the TV mets.

    1. Eric Fisher’s rain forecast:

      Cape=3-5″
      Boston south= 2-4″
      north and west of Boston=1-3″

      1. Good. Thanks Lomgshot. I just noticed southern NH had a tornado warning this afternoon. I may have missed it mentioned here. Suspect the same system Kane mentioned

  109. To be most hard to predict rain amounts with a storm like this. Could 2 inches in hour if under a band. Just like winter 🙂

  110. Got slammed in Andover! Massive rain, lightning, wind, hail, lost power still out… About 15 minutes worth then sun… Huge rivers down the driveway, at least an inch fell. Crazy!
    Fireworks still on though, we will see if that lasts…

  111. I am waiting to see what happens. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for my county till 8:15 pm with the thunderstorms to my west.

  112. Vicki warning extended for my county till 8:45 quarter size hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. There has been some lightning and its raining lightly. The hail size has come down some when it was golf ball size hail.

  113. This band over us now, with NNW winds and torrential rain has been the strongest today. Wilmington ob is sustained at 25 kts, gusting to 45 and I feel like that is what I’m seeing.

    I think this eye may go right over the southern half of the outer Banks, as they are situated southwest to northeast …. nearly in the path of the storm’s center.

    1. Oh boy you really are in the thick of it. Last I saw…and it was a while ago….he’d jogged a bit north

  115. It looks like a bow echo out in west. ma. w/a severe thunderstorm warning – winds could gust to 80 mph. according to weatherscan on tv.

  116. Seeing a number of reports on Twitter of trees down in Sunderland/Northampton areas from that bow.

  118. Just drove to andover high school for fireworks, bunch of trees down on Main Street power still out, will hook up generator for fridge after if needed

  119. Vicki not as much lightning as yesterday with the storms. There is still some lightning going on right now with rain coming down at a pretty good clip. I will say though the rumbles of thunder were louder with this storm. I actually thought these storms were going to be worse tonight as the skies were a lot darker than yesterday prior to the storm.

  120. This storm over Orange continuing to be big time, latest warning from NWS, pretty strongly worded for them:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning

    “SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
    NORTHWESTERN WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…
    NORTHWESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS…
    HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…
    SOUTHEASTERN CHESHIRE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…

    * UNTIL 945 PM EDT

    * AT 846 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A VERY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESSTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH AND
    GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER ORANGE…AND WAS
    MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. IT HAS A HISTORY OF KNOCKING DOWN
    NUMEROUS TREES ALL ALONG ITS PATH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM.

    * SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    NASHUA…FITCHBURG…MERRIMACK…ORANGE…JAFFREY…HUDSON…
    BEDFORD…GARDNER…GOFFSTOWN…MILFORD…ATHOL…PEPPERELL…
    AMHERST…WINCHENDON…LUNENBURG…TOWNSEND…WEARE…LITCHFIELD…
    TEMPLETON AND HOLLIS.”

  121. Those are some of the strongest words I have read for a severe thunderstorm warning. Winds of 80 mph will bring down some trees and power lines in addition to golf ball size hail which could do some damage to cars if there outside.

      1. Will be close like last night. Better chance of picking up some rain.
        We shall see.

  123. I feel like I dodged a bullet seeing some of these reports up there in parts of MA with trees knocked down and New Britian, CT had a wind gust of 63 mph.

      1. Not sure, but my sister is up in Bristol, Newfound Lake. Going to call in a few to make sure they’re all good! Maine’s getting hit pretty hard again, tonight!

  126. Once AGAIN, the storms this evening are DYING as they trek Eastward.
    They “seem” to have a better chance of delivering at least some Rain to Eastern sections, but We’ll see, but I don’t see anything remotely severe surviving the trip.

  127. There have been a couple tornado warnings today inside the watch box. One in Upstate, NY another in PA, and another one near the Portsmouth NH area.
    With those winds near 80 mph in some of these thunderstorms those are winds you find in an EF0 tornado.

  128. IMHO doesn’t matter your political views. Our governors reading was incredibly moving. This is the type of celebration I love. New, old, patriotic.

    1. Good link. Looks to go from NNE to ENE quickly, but I am not sure that will hold either.

  133. Hey I here THUNDER!!!! and no, it’s not fireworks, I KNOW what thunder sounds like!!!

    1. hmm don’t here it anymore. Was it some sort of new long lasting pyrptechnic device that simulates Thunder? Nice long rolling Thunder??

    1. Daughter said she is hearing lots of thunder in Uxbridge. OS, yours must be hearing the same

    1. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

      AT 1012 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
      A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GRAFTON…OR NEAR SHREWSBURY…MOVING
      NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. A GUST TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS
      BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN DOUGLAS.

      HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CAN BE
      EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

      LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
      BOSTON…WORCESTER…CAMBRIDGE…QUINCY…LYNN…NEWTON…
      SOMERVILLE…FRAMINGHAM…WALTHAM…MALDEN…BROOKLINE…MEDFORD…
      REVERE…PEABODY…ARLINGTON…EVERETT…BILLERICA…MARLBOROUGH…
      WOBURN AND SHREWSBURY.

  139. In the spring and summer we have our NE and E winds that can cause temps to crash but how would you like to be on Lake Superior this season and have winds off the water? Right now there are two stations on the north side of the lake with winds from the SSE and SSW and temps around 48!!!!!

  141. Still no power in Andover, crews on Main Street clearing trees on wires. Sound of generators everywhere like a big winter storm. They started fireworks about 15 mins earlier than usual and had a shorter show but after finale kept shooting off ‘misses’ for another 20 minutes. Earlier storm must have played havoc with wiring and setup.

    TJ

  142. Hope everyone clears out of the area quickly enough.

    New Severe Warning for the storm closing in on Boston:
    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=severe%20thunderstorm%20warning

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
    EAST CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS…
    SOUTH CENTRAL ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS…

    * UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

    * AT 1037 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
    WAS LOCATED OVER WESTON…OR NEAR WALTHAM…AND WAS MOVING
    NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

    * SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    BOSTON…CAMBRIDGE…LYNN…NEWTON…SOMERVILLE…WALTHAM…
    MALDEN…MEDFORD…REVERE…PEABODY…ARLINGTON…EVERETT…
    SALEM…WOBURN…CHELSEA…NATICK…WATERTOWN…LEXINGTON…MELROSE
    AND SAUGUS.

  143. WOW. I hope they get everyone off esplanade. That came fast and was incredibly intense. Lighting to the point that it literally didnt get dark between and that deep rolling thunder. We took umbrella and some stuff down but chairs were blowing all over yard and our baby apple trees were sideways.

    Mac said bad in newton now….I think he is not far from you Longshot

  144. Getting slammed in Woburn…never seen anything like this. Looks like an end-of-days storm.

  145. Pops concert was shortened to get the fireworks in before the storm came in. Weather got bad fast and people are being evacuated from Esplanade and rushing to the T in droves.

    1. Ugh. I’m sorry this happened. All the Monday morning QBs will be saying I told you so. It came way fast and I was watching for it. Flowergirl had me watching from FB and then JRW warned it was on our doorstep and darned if if wasn’t.

      1. Well they got all the fireworks in and the rain came about 12 minutes after the fireworks finale. Close call.

      2. I was perched in the window for a good half hour+ after we talked on FB, Vicki 😀 So glad you saw and heard the thunder and lightning 🙂 The storm was pretty intense as it happened. Great thing is, I don’t have to water my tomatoes and cukes until Saturday 🙂 Happy 4th, everyone and stay safe!

  147. The latest Wundermap radar showing most of the intense stuff moving NE away from the Boston area.

        1. I suspect that illustrates the intensity as it sure looked as if it wouldn’t hold together

    1. From all forecasts and reports it looks like the action is Boston and south.. I think the morning will be fairly quiet.

    2. Yup, another one. We’ll sing IF that finger of GOD dumps copious amounts
      of Rain on us. 😀

  152. Thankfully, I was wrong to be worried about this evening’s rescheduling. I really thought those storms would hit earlier. They held off all day and most of the evening. It is good that they didn’t hit earlier and they were able to do most of the show. Still think the decision was hasty and a Saturday event would have been better, with the 1812 Overture (to me the highlight of every July 4th event on the Esplanade).

    1. If one didn’t hit this afternoon, NO WAY I ever would have thought that one
      would hit after 10PM. NO way. But it did.

  153. There is something about Tstorms that calls to me but darned if they are not over too quickly. If I had to choose snow has an edge but weather is weather

  154. OK, WRONG AGAIN!!!

    There was just enough instability to keep one cell strong as it moved NE
    from CT through Boston to the North shore and out to sea.

    Briefly Intense here, but I Emphasize BRIEF. One big gust of wind, a brief down pour and several bolts of lightning and few crack of very loud thunder and it was out of here just like that.

  155. Arthur summary for Wilmington ….

    2.81 inches of rain

    Peak wind gust of 59 mph from the north, peak sustained wind of 30 mph from the north.

    Outer Banks having the eye travel right over them from SW to NE. I am a bit concerned as to what news footage we may see in the coming days. The main road out there is only a few feet above sea level, so, perhaps seeing it buckled, some missing, etc wont be surprising.

  156. Latest on Arthur.
    Leaving the Outer Banks;
    Location 36.0N, 75.3W;
    Cat 2 with winds at 100MPH;
    Traveling NE at 23 MPH;
    973 MB.

  157. Massachusetts Watches and Warnings:

    Central to Eastern MA: Flash Flood Watch
    Cape: Tropical Storm Warning
    Coastal Waters: Hurricane Warning

  162. It seems to me that even pretty far out the forecast and track for Arthur and for our cold front interacting with it has been very accurate.

    1. It isn’t going OTS. It’s passing within 50 miles of Nantucket and some forecasters have it closer. In the end, we will be on the rain side one way or another starting around noon. Your area should see 0.5-1.5″ of rain. I am a little closer to the 1.5-2.5″ area.

      1. Ahhhhh – Got it. I always thought if it didn’t make landfall it was OTS. Thanks, Longshot.

  165. I’m not sure Vicki . I thought it was a good explanation and excellent timing breakdown. Waiting for my carpenter to get here to put finishing touches on pool shed and build hammock stand for party today. Cleaning house all day today in preparation for. 20 guests tomorrow. Happy 4th everybody. Party tomorrow I meant.

    1. Thanks, John. I wasn’t saying it wasn’t right or good – just that I had understood something different. Happy 4th to you also!

  166. Longshot – if I may ???? A non-weather quiz.

    How many men who served as U.S. President died on July 4?

    a) 1
    b) 2
    c) 3
    d) 4
    e) 5

    Bonus: Can you name the man or men and the year(s)?

    1. I think the answer is C, 3. The only name I can remember was Monroe (maybe?). I am not even sure if he was the last one to die on the 4th. I am pretty sure no modern day president died on the 4th. Now I am beginning to wonder if the answer is B, but I will stick with C.

    2. I believe it was 2…Thomas Jefferson and John Adams. Both died on July 4, 1826…the 5o year anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. I also think that one of them (it may have been Jefferson) remarked that morning before he died that Adams still lived while in fact Adams had died earlier in the day (I may have the names turned around on this part).

      1. Hey Keith, we are in the middle of 228 for the parade. They might get most of it in before the rain starts.

  168. I believe Thomas Jefferson died 3hrs before John Adams and as John Adams died he said Thomas Jefferson lives not knowing that he had already died to bad they didn’t have text messaging back then. John and Thomas died not liking each other at all…Its a fascinating story.

    1. TJ it is a fascinating story. I am a huge fan of John Adams and Abigail as well. She was an amazing woman. They were arch enemies when Adams was pres and Jefferson was VP. But they did mend fences and became quite close. Much of their many letters of correspondence are preserved.

  169. Arthur is now a Cat 1 with winds at 90 MPH and traveling NE at 23 MPH. At 976 MB, but may intensify just a little now that it is back out over the water.

  170. Vicki,

    I believe that Arthur is passing pretty far out. In my opinion, for all intents and purposes it IS Out to Sea. The reason it’s going to impact us so much is two-fold:

    1. For whatever reason, Arthur has a robust rain shield extending far out on its
    Northwest flank and our region gets into that rain shield.
    2. There is or will be some sort of interaction with the approaching front and upper
    level trough.

    The combination spells much rain.

    Again these are my thoughts.

    Either way, sit back and enjoy as will shall be rewarded with an A+ weekend!!!!

    1. Thanks OS. That is what I had thought as well. And I will def sit back and enjoy. We moved cookout to taco salads in fajita bowl…….hmm not really July 4 food huh?

      1. Why not. We’re vegging out and then going out for dinner
        with friends this evening. Nothing special, just the Outback.

        BTW just in case you should venture out to the Outback, for today only, mention the word “FREEDOM” to your server and your table gets a FREE Bloomin Onion and if you never had one of those, believe me you don’t know what you are missing!

      1. One can clearly see the frontal rain and Arthur rain. As it get closer, it all blends together for a RAIN FEST!!

  173. FLASH FLOOD WATCH:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=flash%20flood%20watch

    Summary:

    …RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO
    TONIGHT…

    .THE COMBINATION OF HURRICANE ARTHUR AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING. EXTREMELY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM SMALL STREAMS OR RUNOFF IN URBAN AREAS. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

  174. As posted earlier this am.

    Massachusetts Watches and Warnings:

    Central to Eastern MA: Flash Flood Watch
    Cape: Tropical Storm Warning
    Coastal Waters: Hurricane Warning

  177. Happy July 4th Everyone!!!
    I think its going to be a cook in at my mom’s today even though there is partial sunshine outside my window right now.

  178. NWS issued a 10 AM statement saying that Arthur had weakened, but there did not seem to be a lot of substantiation behind it. Just the usual wind speed and barometric pressure readings which seem steady to me.

    2. 2.5-3 inches all over Central and Eastern MA with a 3-4 inch bulls eye.

      Now the NAM may be over cooked, but this precip is NOT from the main
      rain shield of Arthur, or certainly doesn’t appear to be.

      1. AHH here we go, and 850MB NORLUN TROUGH!!! 😆 😆

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_009_850_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_rh_ht&fhr=009&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140704+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_012_850_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_rh_ht&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=area&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140704+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    1. That game should have been postponed. All those poor folks making the trek in there ONLY to be sent home! What a shame.

  182. Happy 4th everyone !

    Interesting radar up there this morning.

    Hopefully not too much rain overall or too quickly to cause any flooding issues.

    1. Thanks Tom. We shall see.

      Looks like you had a fun day, at least Arthur passed to your East sparing
      you. Did the house shake a bit with that 59 mph gust? 😀

      1. LOL !

        I guess since my broth and sister in law have moved down here, the storm they test everything against is Ophelia. A strengthening cat 1 at landfall that came in right over Wilmington. That one had the windows rattling, etc.

        I kept looking at the wind gusts yesterday, saying wow. And they were like, “so whens it starting ?” 🙂 🙂

  187. Arthur is about 300 SW of the Cape and running at 25 MPH. Tropical Storm Warnings now up in Canada.

  190. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=boston%20radar&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CC4QFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fweather-radar%2Funited-states%2Fma%2Fboston%2Fbox%2F&ei=g8u2U5beHsqOqAaLooHQDQ&usg=AFQjCNGSvs32TddWuuDFLz2Iz4jy1uyhSw&bvm=bv.70138588,d.b2k

    Must be the stalled front NW of the Cape.

    Neat to see the moisture aloft, moving south to north, over the boundary.

    Alright, off to the beach in this blazing sun. The air is trying to drop off a bit. 🙂

    1. Hmm

      SPC doesn’t mention it. NWS doesn’t mention it.

      Does Matt have a special crystal Ball???

      1. I think he’s being cautious. Severe storms would be more likely in the part of the circulation that will be over water.

  192. Good morning/afternoon all!

    Happy Birthday USA!

    The end of the night was frustrating from an updating standpoint because I was at the river in Boston and unable to connect. Just an hour before that I was telling people I was pretty sure the storms would die out before reaching Boston. The majority of the line had weakened but that super-powerful portion that came through CT survived and sustained all the way up through eastern MA, and was damn impressive. Luckily for us, the worst of it went just north of the Esplanade as we were getting out of there. We just had enough time to pack up and leave the lagoon area but the wall of water arrived while we were on Storrow Drive. Instant soaking. It was kind of fun. Wind was not that bad there, but a couple decent gusts occurred. We did take shelter under part of a narrow foot bridge that kept us out of the absolute heaviest. No really close lightning, but there were some just across the river.

    I’ll be updating the blog soon. 🙂

  193. From NWS:

    SURFACE OBS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOW A COLD FRONT ROUGHLY
    ALONG I-95 IN EASTERN MASS/RI. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE 70S LEADING THE FRONT…NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
    FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE HURRICANE ARTHUR MOVES NORTHEAST WITH ITS PCPN SHIELD ABOUT 3 HOURS FROM THE SOUTH RI COAST /ETA 130 PM/.

  197. Happy 4th all! Hope everyone has an enjoyable weekend. Luckily I have not been posting any forecasts here because 48 hours ago I would have thought the upper air trough would have pushed Arthur further east and cooler drier air would have been filtering in from the west about now. So what do I know…..

    I was watching radar last night and saw a bow echo forming on the line of storms that came through mid-evening last night as it passed over the CT River in Massachusetts. As it turns out the NWS is now looking into the possibility of a Tornado touch down in Sunderland MA which is the town that shares the northern border with Amherst. My wife saw the look on my face as I watching radar and she couldn’t tell if I was concerned or I was just reaching weather dork euphoria…truthfully a bit of both….

  203. Just had a HUGE rumble of thunder here in Sharon! Sounded like one of the cannons from the 1812 Overture

    1. Awesome!

      I can see that cell on Radar as it just intensified.

      Pouring here now. Just started.

          1. Except for a litte thunder and light rain around 10 this morning it’s been fairly quiet in Hingham…looking at the radar I expect that to change soon.

  206. I think I’ve posted this link before. I like it a lot. You can set and save as much detail as you want. When using the radar I’ve found that there are times you have to leave the “Hide Cluttter” box unchecked or it will lead you to believe that the Charlie Effect has overspread all over SE Mass. 🙂

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