Arthur Day? / Great Weekend!

106 Comments

1:04PM

Hurricane Arthur is attempting to take over the day but nothing takes away from the fact that it’s the birthday of the United States of America! Happy Birthday!

Arthur is weakening while accelerating northeastward and will pass just southeast of Cape Cod tonight as a category 1 hurricane. As previously mentioned, heavy rain will be the main impact of the system, 1-3 inches in most of the area but 3+ inches possible in some parts of east coastal MA/NH, but especially southeastern MA including Cape Cod. Strongest winds remain offshore, but tropical storm force wind gusts are possible over Cape Cod and the Islands. The best chance for gusts of wind at or above 40 MPH will be from the Cape Cod Canal eastward with a risk of 50 MPH gusts on the Outer Cape and Nantucket. Arthur’s rain scoots out rapidly from west to east overnight tonight followed by clearing. This sets up a fantastic weekend with warm and dry air dominating both Saturday and Sunday. The warmest of the 2 days will be Sunday. There may be some fair weather clouds popping up Saturday as the air above will be slightly cooler and there will be moisture left behind on the ground for the sun to heat up. Sunday will probably be 100% sunny.

Next week, warm, muggy, periods of thunderstorms as we get into a Summery southwesterly flow and a frontal system tries to press into the region from the northwest.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Showers/rain and embedded thunderstorms becoming widespread, heavy at times. Muggy. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but becoming NE to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod and the Islands.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain and embedded thunderstorms, heavy at times especially east coastal MA through Cape Cod, ending west to east overnight followed by rapid clearing. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH coast, gusts 40 MPH or higher possible Cape Cod and Nantucket.

SATURDAY: Clouds Cape Cod at dawn then clearing. Sunny start elsewhere, then some fair weather clouds popping up for a mix of sun and clouds before they dissipate late day. Highs 75-83. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 83-88 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms evening and night. Low 64. High 87.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Daily risk of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

106 thoughts on “Arthur Day? / Great Weekend!”

  2. is it just more or is the trough moving much slower than anticipated which would allow arthor to track a bit further west?

    1. The trough is just picking it up now and it won’t really come any further west than expected because the trough itself isn’t intensifying. Center will go east of Cape Cod.

  3. Thank you TK

    Driving to,ad from newton this morning we saw a lot of leaves/branches down and several good sizes trees or limbs. Younger daughter said it was worse on the Ashland hopkinton line by a bit

    Question. Framingham patch reported lightening hitting two cars in south framingham last night and setting them on fire. I don’t believe I have ever heard of it setting fire to a car.

      1. hahahaha – you are kind. It is in a problem area of Framingham and I was thinking perhaps some human intervention. Thanks TK

  4. JJ. It is the Nova Scotia open. Silly me thinks everything is PGA ;). Macs been watching it on the golf channel. I suspect they may well call it tomorrow.

  5. Steady light to moderate rain here in Hingham…just had a quick flash of lightning and a rumble of thunder.

  7. Thanks TK.
    Vicki I believe the PGA will be going to Canada during this month to play the RBC Canadian Open.
    Next week looks like a Florida forecast with a daily threat of showers and storms. Another great weekend.

  10. .34 rain here today. I would have guessed more but then it’s been more of a gentle on and off rain.

  12. NWS is going to send a team to Arlington Heights to survey damage. Possible brief and relatively weak tornado there last night on the leading edge of the bow on the squall line.

    A friend / storm chaser has spotted some apparent circular damage.

    1. It is moving Nortwestward if you watch the radar.

      Not sure how far it will get? Sure looks like it’s coming to pay us a visit. 😀

  15. That enhanced line from the South Coast to the South Shore is there because that is where the frontal boundary is. You are seeing the result of extra lift over the front, and enhanced precipitation resulting. It won’t move too much, just pivot northwestward, re-orientate more north-south, then get wrapped into Arthur’s back-side circulation before pulling back to the east later tonight.

  16. I don’t know how much rain we’ve had yet but its been very steady since about noon

        1. Seems high for Boston area, perhaps not for far South shore where the enhanced precip is.

    1. Latest from Eric Fisher:

      Eric Fisher@ericfisher
      New Bedford is now up to 5.10″ of rain and climbing. Please stay off roads, and monitor the basements

  19. Repeating the fourth quiz here….not weather but one of my favorite July 4 facts 🙂

    How many men who served as U.S. President died on July 4?

    a) 1
    b) 2
    c) 3
    d) 4
    e) 5

    Bonus: Can you name the man or men and the year(s)?

    1. I know, I know….But I cheated and looked it up. I won’t spill the beans.
      Very interesting quiz. I hadn’t even the remotest idea. Never in a million
      years would I have guessed. 😀

    2. If I remember correctly, there were four of them, but I may be way off.

      I also remember that two of them were on the same day: July 4th, 1826. America’s 50th birthday, and they were Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, who were in the past rivals, but became friends as the years passed.

      I have no idea if there are another two, I may be making that up in my head 😛

        1. Hadi, for you guys that like soccer, sure. No problem, but you’re NEVER EVER going to get me to like soccer. 😀

  22. Eric Fisher is having a live weather chat right now. He seems pretty lonely as I don’t
    see many people posting. We should all bombard him. 😀

    Tk, did you speak with Eric last evening at all? Curious since you were both
    down there.

  23. Hey TK, how does the weather look up in North Conway Next Sunday, Monday and Tuesday? Family trip to story land.

    1. I agree. There is no sign of it letting up anytime soon.
      Truly a mesoscale event and as you say, perhaps historic.

      Flooding photos will abound. I posted one that Matty Noyes shared.

      They’ll be plenty more I’m sure.

  27. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 4m
    RT @MatthewCappucci: @NWSBoston @MattNoyesNECN 6.57″ of rain so far in South Plymouth, MA.

  29. Updated rain totals from Eric Fisher:

    Eric Fisher@ericfisher
    Updated rain totals from @wx1box – New Bedford 6.4″, Achushnet 4.5″, Plymouth 3.8″, South Carver 2.97″, Kingston 2.42″

  30. From BB:

    BarryWBZ
    In the next couple of hours, there will be a noticeable decrease of intensity. The storm is accelerating now.

  34. coastal… Prelim outlook for next Sunday-Tuesday up there would indicate some heat/humidity especially Sunday-Monday maybe breaking Tuesday depending on the position of a front nearby. Daily risk of t-storms but probably not anything to cancel day long plans over, just have a plan in case something is around. Typical summertime weather.

  35. Some heavier rain has moved in and the wind has picked up some, while the temperature
    has dipped to 66.4 brrrr Will it SNOW? 😀

  36. Quiz which I also find fascinating and a bit too coincidental to be considered coincidence.

    The answer is 3.
    Thomas Jefferson-1826, age-83
    John Adams-1826, age-90
    James Monroe-1831, age-73

    Adams had written to wife Abigail on July 2 1776 say it would be a day that would be celebrated with pomp and circumstance throughout the history of this new nation. He was an eerily farsighted individual. The MA constitution is the oldest one that still stands….written by Adams.

    Anyway Jefferson and Adams were the last two surviving members of the original revolutionaries on the 50th anniversary of this country. July 4 1826. They died within five hours of each other as they listened to the celebration outside their windows. Adams last words were “Jefferson still survives.” He didnt but Adams had no way of knowing. Ironically, the messengers who were sent via horseback from each home to notify the other passed on their way.

    Monroe was 50 yrs to the day later

    Seven presidents have died in July. More than. Any other month.

    Sorry…..this stuff fascinates me so I’m taking advantage of this day to share 🙂

  38. The pop ups wanted to steal the Boston Pop’s show. But hey, fireworks and torrential downpours? Eh, it’s all the same. Both are exciting and beautiful. 😉

    1. I’ll never forget that experience. Been downpoured on 2 out of the last 3 years at that show. But last night’s will be the most memorable so far. 🙂

  42. Impressive rain totals in parts of southeastern MA.
    With the track Arthur if this was only winter this would be a good dumping of snow.

  45. Watching the NYC macy 4th celebration and the DC and i came to the relization that so many of them have singers that lip sing. Boston has no lip singing, its really sad that so many “singers” now need electronics in order to perform. basically do the recording inside a box and then the recording is put out to the people as the person lip sings on stage with a word there and there. though do think the nyc fireworks did look cool last year

    1. Lip synch is giving way to Auto Tune…a lot of performances that are “live” and appear to sound too good are Auto Tuned.

      1. Patron should get a refund.

        Wimpy performers!!

        What happened to the good ole days when a live performance was a live performance.

        I was SHOCKED last night when I saw Enrique Iglesias lip synching!! It was OH SO obvious as he was way out of synch!
        Pun intended!

  46. Good evening!! 2.01 here and still lightly raining. It’s so tough to get a hurricane up to these latitudes, and to have the center or eye of a hurricane come straight up through Providence and continue north through Boston is also very tough or rare. I remember Gloria and it went west by 80 miles, so we were on the worst side, wind gust to 75-85mph for 3-4hrs, trees down everywhere, electricity out for 3 days, it’s the worst hurricane in my lifetime. I have a funny feeling we r not done with hurricane season. Have a good night everyone, happy 4th!! 🙂

    1. I was surprised to see the radar this morning and that western flank of rain still affecting eastern areas.

    1. With the water ban in Hanover, I am glad to see that amount of rain Coastal !

      Hopefully, some of it fell at a pace that it had a chance to soak into the ground.

      1. Thanks Tom, I hope so too. It rained steady starting around 1pm yesterday and still going. We are over 2.5″ now.

    1. 68F, dewpoint 59F here. Feels like home. 🙂

      The locals will have on winter coats. 🙂 🙂

      They have a shot coming up tonight, with the low dewpoints, of their record low of 61F.

  51. Tom I would love to see dew points like that when I am vacationing in Virginia the week after next. I saw the Accuweather
    forecast and not that I put much stock into it but it was show highs in the mid to upper 90s that week when I checked it two days ago.

    1. I hope it works out so you get some lower humidity during your vacation.

      On our trip down, we stopped for one night at a State Park, (the name eludes me at the moment), but it was just southwest of Richmond. Beautiful park, my kids loved it because it had a water park in it.

  52. Just woke up and talk about being nervous when I see it’s still raining as my party starts at noon but I think showers starting to wind down as it looks like its clearing . Hope everybody made out ok with this storm.

  54. Good Morning and good-bye to Arthur!! Good riddance is more like it!

    Nothing impressive up this way, although it sure was wet!!!

    I couldn’t believe the photos from New Bedford. They got croaked.

    We went out last night and my wife was worried about flooding. I kept having to remind here that the rain rate was just not sufficient to promote flooding, so other than a few puddles, not problems at all.

  55. Regarding convection on Tuesday/Wednesday, well, I don’t see much happening.
    Will continue to monitor. 😀

    1. NWS discussion this morning regarding Tues/Wed

      TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…THE PROXIMITY OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY…ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY…WILL LEAD TO A GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT TIMING IS NOT YET CERTAIN…BUT LEANING MORE TOWARD A TYPICAL
      DIURNAL PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT…THEN INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

      Early returns on the instability indices is blah blah blah blah, not even worth
      posting. 😀

  56. Tk,

    I see you were chatting with Eric and Barry yesterday. 😀

    Any word on that damage in Arlington?

    Thanks

  57. Good morning and ahhhhhhhh. Wonderfully refeshing air

    Does anyone know if the breeze will die down? Daughter has a bounce house planned for the Uxbridge party this pm. Thank you

  59. A quick comment on the lip-synch chat above.

    I realize that a band like The Beach Boys doesn’t sound exactly like they do on their recordings….made in a studio over 50 years ago with a perfectionist group leader.

    But, they were singing live, and it really wasn’t that bad, considering the ages of these guys. I’m guessing they don’t often perform with an orchestra either. That’s an adjustment too. 🙂

    Updating blog shortly.

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