Holiday Weekend Update #1

50 Comments

10:25AM

With the midweek bout of heat and humidity, the severe thunderstorms, and the heavy rain and areas of flooding associated with the passage of Hurricane Arthur all behind us (except for recovery in southeastern MA where some of the flooding was very significant), it’s time to look ahead to the remainder of the “Fourth of July” Weekend.

As the cyclone that was once Arthur moves away, now without tropical characteristics, its wind field has expanded as it typical of these storms, and up against high pressure building in from the west, we have a tightened pressure gradient which translates to a gusty wind for today. This will keep up into the afternoon before diminishing by evening. So you may need some help keeping your cookout stuff from blowing off the tables outside. A benefit of this air flow is the transportation of refreshing air into the region. But lingering moisture on the ground from yesterday’s rain will be heated by the sun, rise skyward, and will result in some pop up fair weather clouds that will share the sky with the sun midday and afternoon. Once we get to Sunday, high pressure sinks to the south of the region, the remains of Arthur are long gone, and we’re into a dry and warmer westerly air flow. We should see about 100% of the possible on on Sunday – a great day to end the weekend.

Looking into next week, humidity comes back Monday through Wednesday, and it gets a little hotter, but not majorly so. A frontal system wavering around in the vicinity late Monday through Wednesday will result in opportunities for showers and thunderstorms from Monday night through Wednesday, but expect it to be rain-free the majority of the time. By Thursday-Friday, drier air should win out as high pressure returns to the Northeast.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Sun  mixed with passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting as high as 30 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 55-60 except 60-65 coast and urban areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny start, variably cloudy finish, chance of showers/thunderstorms at night. Low 62. High 87.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly afternoon. Low 66. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms, mainly morning. Low 68. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

50 thoughts on “Holiday Weekend Update #1”

  1. First 🙂

    Another comment here to follow-up TK’s post on lip-synching. Most established (ie: older) eschew lip synching and Auto Tuning. A good thing imho. On the other hand Katie Perry is infamous for her use of Auto Tuning.

    1. I would rather hear an artist belting out their old classic maybe slightly off-key on a few notes or with a strained aging voice with the heartfelt love of the tune and performance, than listen to some computer-corrected mailed-in effort in the name of sounding like an overly-produced recording and a few choreographed overused dance moves.

      2. Without question. And I think that is my favorite part of some of the performers who have been around a while……their love of their music and entertaining.

  2. Thanks TK – I am looking forward to the sequel (Holiday Weekend Update #2). 🙂

    Boston officially received 1.88″ which was a record for the 4th.

    The tropics are expected to be quiet next week…hopefully for the rest of the summer? 😉

    1. 2.25 inches here in Woburn.

      The sequel will probably be shorter and issued tomorrow morning about the same time. 🙂

      I still expect that overall tropical activity will be less than normal in the Atlantic Basin this season.

  4. Here in Salem Harbor, the wind is 17 knots gusting to 26. We’re on the mooring, and not going anywhere today. When the wind gusts hard, the (sail)boat heels over.

    Interestingly, the water temperature has dropped about 10 degrees since last weekend, from 68, which is just bearable for a swim on a hot day, to 58, which would necessitate a wetsuit.

  7. 12z GFS showing some CAPE and Lift across parts of the region Monday Tuesday Wednesday but nothing impressive.

    1. Was just dancing in my seat. My maiden name gave me a sometimes nickname of Lupe. Love this song. It is the era of oldies I like best. Never saw them perform.

  9. Good evening.

    Beautiful sunset going on here as sun illuminates high thin cloudiness. Colored orange and red in the western sky.

    Dew point at 62F only because of a light east wind blowing off of the 82F ocean, otherwise it would be even lower.

    We were taken today to the drive on beach that is at the north end of Carolina Beach. Now, I have not been on the drive on section of Duxbury Beach, so I cant offer a comparison.

    However, this drive on beach was a mile long, ending at the intra-coastal waterway. A blast driving in the sand on the beach and I almost had sensory overload when we got to our spot because the scenery in every direction was unbelievable.

    Feeling very fortunate and priveleged to be enjoying such a vacation.

    Glad to see today turned into a beautiful summer day at home ! Hope everyone is having a great 4th of July weekend !

      1. My wife was lamenting that she forgot her cell phone to take pictures. Means we’ll have to return to get those pictures.

        Add 30F to the ocean temp and more distant views, a bit Ogunquit beach-ish with the intra-coastal calmer water way on one side and the whipped up Atlantic Ocean on the other.

        Tons of cars, tents, a few campers ….. grills, you name it, on the softest, purest sand, that takes an adventure to get out to while you drive around vehicles that are mid tire stuck in the sand. Wild and nothing I anticipated. Open year round, only closed during bad storms.

  10. Another thought on Arthur ….

    It may have transitioned to a post-tropical storm, but Nova Scotia really took it on the chin today.

    More than one hundred thousand people are without power across the province.

    Photos coming in from the area are showing trees uprooted.

    When I saw some obs earlier today, coastal areas were sustained at 40 mph, gusting to 70. Even inland areas were sustained at 20-25, gusting to 45 mph.

  11. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    When did the U.S. start using female names for tropical storms?
    A. 1941
    B. 1953
    C. 1965
    D. 1976

    Answer later today.

    1. IF anything happens, Wednesday “appears” to the day. Nothing much there.
      Garden variety, IF anything at all. 😀

      1. It went great thanks. We celebrated all of the birthdays from my sons in April, my dad’s in march who was sick and did not come all the way to mine in which case is today !!!. It was a bit windy but all went well. I’m on vacation till the. 16th and it’s all now about relaxing and looking like a great weather week.

  17. From the Taunton NWS office this morning. Hmmm I don’t know.

    BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
    ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WED AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR 40+ KT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN HIGH PWAT AIRMASS.

  19. Now I’m really confused. From SPC with their current 3 day outlook:

    FARTHER NORTHEAST…AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

  20. Thanks for the link Old Salty.
    I think Wednesday is the better shot at stronger Thunderstorms for us. It looks like the best instability on Tuesday will be west of SNE and NWS out of of Upton, NY seems to be hinting at that as well.
    PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY…WITH
    MODERATE INSTABILITY LEVELS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NJ/LOWER HUDSON
    VALLEY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON SHORTWAVE FORCING DURING THE TUE
    DAYLIGHT HOURS…AND THEREFORE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. IF
    SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PRESENT…RESULTANT SHEAR PROFILES COULD PRODUCE
    A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME LATE DAY STRONG TO SEVERE
    MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE…JUST AN
    ISOLATED THREAT FOR CONVECTION ALONG SEABREEZE OR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
    DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.

  22. Update #2 has been posted.
    Feel free to re-post anything there.
    Full blog update later!

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