Bit Of Heat, Then A Re”treat”

110 Comments

5:17PM

A very warm to hot, humid southwesterly flow will continue through Wednesday. A trough will bring a risk of showers and thunderstorms as it moves west to east across the region in the early hours of Wednesday, then a cold front will slide across the area from west to east Wednesday night with less fanfare, but still a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. The front will be a little sluggish to get too far off the coast so we’ll have to watch for a wave of low pressure on it that may throw some clouds back over the region Thursday night or Friday morning, especially southeastern areas (Cape Cod, southeastern MA). But during Thursday and into the weekend some nicer air will dominate with warm temperatures and lower humidity.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

EVENING: Partly cloudy and hazy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Most areas rain-free. Humid. Temperatures falling through the 80s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few possibly heavy. Muggy. Lows upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusty near storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with any showers and thunderstorms exiting early morning. Partly sunny and hazy afternoon. Highs near 80 South Coast/Cape Cod, middle 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy and hazy with isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Partly cloudy overnight. Humid early, drying out late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds SE early otherwise mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Low 62. High 86.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers PM. Low 66. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 78.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 74.

110 thoughts on “Bit Of Heat, Then A Re”treat””

  2. Thanks tk. I’m suspecting your kidding about your winter forcast as it’s impossible to predict that in the beginning of July . Whale watch trip tomorrow Plymouth to the cape and probably vineyard Friday . Off to dinner in marshfield than my son and I plan to watch the sox. Great summer weather this week. Tk when will this breeze down here exit. Although not like it was on Saturday it’s still enough to knock over my plants. Thank you tk.

    1. Actually I’m not really kidding. Some of the climate indices indicate this as an early guess.

      Breeze will keep up all night.

    1. Eric seems to think the line will hold together to about Central MA before
      falling apart and NEVER making it to the coast.

      They usually don’t make it to the coast, except when they are not expected to, then they make it. One never knows. It’s soupy enough and there is enough
      instability hanging around. We shall see. I’m guessing No Way.

  6. Thanks TK. Cool down? Snow potential :). We have macs family arriving en masse next week. Cool enough to sit outside without melting works for me.

  7. I may have checked those parameters for too early in the evening. Should have checked later. 😀

      1. no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!
        no i can’t!

        1. I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can
          I know you can

          Good grief. That isn’t easy on an iPad and I don’t know yet if it’ll work. But I KNOW I CAN 🙂

    1. Apple…..I tried looking a while ago and gave up. I think I’d look into an apple as I understand they can run the programs I have for my PC. But there are others on here with a lot more knowledge than I have.

    2. Macs are great with some good benefits including better security and a more stable operating system, but unfortunatly they haven’t quite made it into mainstream yet. Majority of the business world and academia are working off PC’s. I’ve had a Samsung laptop for the past 3 years which has been phemominal.

    4. Matt, I’ve had great luck with my HP laptop and PC. But, my son swears by Apple.
      It really comes down to what you’ll be using it for, and how much you’re willing to spend.

      1. Thats a massive line! If we dont at least get some rain from that in a couple hours, i call bullcrap

        1. Most of coastal MA will get nothing. When the storms lose their updrafts, all they have to do is rain themselves out and they are gone.

  12. I love your title TK, but it made me want ice cream. 😛

    It was so nice out today, which made it extra hard to be in a building for five hours to work. Especially with the Endicott fountains and beaches just a few steps away…
    But nonetheless, it made it even better when I got to walk out on my break and when I got out. 😀

  13. Oddly I’m hungry for ice cream and more specifically orange Sherbet…..wonder where that came from

  15. All mets I have seen tonight seem to think storms tomorrow affect mostly south shore and cape rare this summer.

  16. re: Thunderstorms today

    He He He 😀 😆

    Here’s word from NWS at Taunton

    ASIDE FROM THE LOW INSTABILITY AND LACKING MOISTURE…SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGH WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40-50 KTS. WITH ALL THAT SAID…GIVEN VERY HIGH SHEAR AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE REGION THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED STORMS BUT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE LACK OF MOISTURE. ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO STILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL.

    NAM has the strongest instability parameters and that is no great shakes, while the GFS and CMC are almost non-existent to marginally modest at best.

    Honestly, I don’t see much happening. So now that it’s not expected, we’ll get
    hammered. 😀 Nah, don’t think so, but as always we’ll keep an eye out just in case.

  18. SREF for today:

    CAPE, up to 1,000 Joules (I suppose that’s enough)

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

    LIFTED INDEX, best -4 to -5

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFC_LI_f018.gif

    SHEAR

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_0-6KMSHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f018.gif

    I suppose these parameters are enough with the lift from the front to produce
    some thunderstorms.

    We’ll watch and see. Gut still says No Cigar.

            1. I saw that you wouldn’t be able to tell as soon as I posted and then got busy with other stuff. Sorry. The TWC. And yes, Mac is home and very happy to be here…..as we are happy to have him here 🙂

  20. Clouds are flying by this morning!! Quite nice right now with a breeze but definitely a promise of heat to come.

  21. 82F, dewpoint 76F. (yeah, 76F ).

    Headed on the road for the Outer Banks. My goal is not to complain about the humidity before my wife does, but that will never happen. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. hahahaha – my inlaws left Charleston in June every year to travel north and they liked the heat. Have a wonderful time, Tom!!

  22. Isolated at best with thunderstorms today across SNE and I don’t see anything severe.
    Tom those dew points in the 70s your experiencing down there I have a feeling will be happening when I am in Virginia next week.

    1. Ace and JJ ….

      Perhaps I had fealt a dp of low 70s at home once in a while, but this stuff is unreal.

      Believe it or not, with the breeze, I do find myself acclimate to it. And then I walk into central A/C and the process begins again. 🙂

  23. I expect today to be a carbon copy of yesterday, just shy of 90 with the same lack of storms. Even with the 2+ inches of rain last friday, everything is bone dry again

  25. I had heard the best chance for storms was down my way south shore and cape. Sitting on a boat in Plymouth harbor 9am take off for a 4 hr whale watch trip to cape cod.

    1. Enjoy John. I think you are safe.
      If you have your smart phone with you, check in to make sure.

      1. Thanks oldsalty I do. We just set sail and it’s awesome being out on the water like this and this is why I just love summer.

  27. LOL!!!
    I need to give out the first significants and extremes on the thunderstorm impact scale for the first time this based on that run of the NAM.
    Its sounds POTENTIALLY active in terms of showers and storms early next week. Watch it the big thunderstorms of the season will happen when I am away on vacation next week.

  29. Dew Point down to 64. Ever so slowly drying out.
    Should HELP put the damper on convection later on. 😀

  31. SPC does have western parts of SNE in a slight risk for severe weather today.
    5% hail 15% wind 2% tornado

      1. Beginning to POP well to our West. Chances of getting in here,
        SLIM and NONE and SLIM just left the building!

  33. Trip was a blast and saw a ton of whales. We even got a bonus on the way back when 50-60 dolphins surrounded the boat . $76 for the three of us to go and worth every penny. It got quite chilly out there but that’s to be expected. Another warm one today .

      1. Yes sue it was. Do you have any other recommendation for your town day or night . Trying to figure something tomorrow night by the water. They do offer and make your own ice cream 1.5 hr cruise .

    4. what ship did you go on and did ya go off of P-town? when i go on the cape my family goes on Dolphin fleet, usually towards evening when the whales feed

    2. If the tornado chance has been moved east, has the severe thunderstorm risk been moved east as well?

  35. SPC saying in their discussion can’t totally rule out a rogue tornado. I don’t get why the tornado risk is way outside the slight risk area.

  36. When you see 2% while a low risk for a tornado there still is one. When the EF 1 tornado back in June 2010 happened in Bridgeport, CT that was day when there was that 2% chance and just this past May near Albany, NY the SPC did not highlight the area in a tornado risk and there was an EF 3 tornado.

    1. Yes, and there was a day a few Summer’s ago where we were NOT
      in the risk area, yet there was a 2% chance due to low level shear.
      There were about 5 warnings that day from CT to Maine. I remember
      it as a wild day.

      That being said, IF there is any action, it will be in Far Western areas
      of CT, MA and VT ONLY. Watch carefully JJ as you are on the fringe
      and could be involved.

    2. I also had the thought that on June 1 there was a 2% risk. I take that number seriously after that day.

  37. I remember that day there were two tornadoes in CT that day one in Fairfield County I forget the town the other in Windsor CT which is north of Hartford.
    It sounds early next week could get interesting with showers and thunderstorm development. The NWS out of Upton, NY saying the setup looks to be one for a possible severe weather outbreak in the Monday Tuesday timeframe. I won’t be here next week as I will be in Virginia.

  39. We have now lost 10 minutes on the sunrise (5:17 am) but only 3 minutes on the sunset (8:22 pm).

  40. John – The Pilgrim Belle does sunset cruises. Also there is a latern tour that people love.

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