Weekend Outlook / Taming The Media (I Wish)

105 Comments

7:55PM

First, the weekend. Short and to the point. High pressure will be in control Saturday and it will be a wonderful Summer day. On Sunday, it will start very nice but a disturbance rapidly approaching from the west leading humidity back into the region will bring increasing clouds and an eventual risk of some rain from west to east in the afternoon and evening. It won’t turn out to be a wash-out, but some areas are likely to get wet before the end of the day. If the timing of this disturbance is slower than I expect right now, we’ll salvage most of Sunday rain-free. Greatest chance of a completely dry day will be from Rhode Island and far southeastern MA through Cape Cod.

Next week? Spare me the drama. Ok, yes there will be a somewhat significant trough of low pressure which includes an closed upper level low pressure area somewhat resembling the infamous “polar vortex” of this winter-past. But don’t let the media’s depiction of this slightly anomalous feature (for July) get to you. These features do occur in Summer, and one will take place next week, setting up a chilly outbreak of air, in comparison to average, coming out of Canada into the Midwest, eventually making its way to the Northeast in modified form. Before that happens, there will be a clash of air masses, with that cool air advancing in from Canada clashing with the warm/humid air that will be lead in by  Sunday’s approaching disturbance. This will set up a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Monday-Wednesday period. This far out, it’s impossible to time these and also nearly impossible to predict the intensity of showers/storms. Suffice it to say, there is some risk for significant rain and even some severe weather, but I’m not going to alarm anybody this far out by predicting some giant long lasting event of severe storms and flooding. I’ll watch the potential as it gets closer and update accordingly.

By late next week, we should go from a dry/cool day Thursday to a dry/warmer day  Friday as things move along in the atmosphere.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Any scattered clouds vanish with a clear sky and bright full moon. Lows 55-64, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70s South Coast & Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-66. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny start then increasing clouds west to east. Chance of light rain or showers by mid to late afternoon especially north and west of Boston. Highs 70s  South Coast & Cape Cod, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 75.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

105 thoughts on “Weekend Outlook / Taming The Media (I Wish)”

  3. Thanks TK. I seem to recall that when the dreaded polar vortex term first became known to the also dreaded media that you said it is present throughout the year and nothing to be hyping about. Of course I have been known to make things up but that is my story and I’m sticking to it……for now

    1. You recall correctly. What is coming along next week is the stronger side of the pattern that was forecast for this Summer by myself, Judah Cohen, and others.

      The general media may be acting surprised about it, but some of us are not surprised at all. 🙂

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Agree, we could do without the hype. This said, I do think record lows are in store for parts of the Upper Mid-West: 40s in July is not common. I believe several cities, especially near the Canadian border ,will get into the upper 40s at night. Plus, they’ve already had a cool spring and summer, with lots of rain. This pattern appears locked in place, with occasional breaks. Our weather will not be affected nearly as much. In fact, “modified” is perhaps not the right adjective. “Muted” may be better, as our temperatures will be below normal, but not by much.

    1. Of course, it’s not common, but that’s why there will be some records. However, averages are made up of ranges of temperatures, including the extremes. I agree that it’s unusual, by definition, to have a defined vortex drop pretty far to the south in mid Summer, but it’s nothing to be alarmed about either. Historical weather maps will show many instances of this over our observed weather history. 🙂

  7. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    This morning’s closest approach of the moon to Earth is called____
    A. Apogee
    B. Aphelion
    C. Perigee
    D. Perihelion

    Answer later today.

  8. C.
    No slight risk for severe weather here in SNE on Monday and the hazardous weather outlook has been removed by the NWS out of Taunton. Starting to look like the risk for a severe weather outbreak in SNE is on the low side but with that said still a few days away and this could change.

    1. Thank you JJ? Do you drive to VA?

      I’m having flashbacks to winter……..now you see it, now you don’t 🙂

  9. Hi Vicki… I am driving to Virginia. I am leaving 6AM Monday with a stop at a Friendly’s north of Baltimore and will be arriving in Williamsburg around 3:30 in the afternoon. There might be some strong to possibly severe storms down there in the Monday Tuesday timeframe.

  11. Latest parameters from both the NAM and GFS are nothing to write home about around these parts. Some impressive parameters for the Mid-Atlantic.

    GFS blows this front right through here and out of here on Tuesday.

    NAM and EURO keep it around as does the CMC. In fact the CMC still has severe
    possibilities for SNE not for Monday, but for Tuesday:

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=CAPE&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Lifted Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=LI&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Energy Helicity Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=EHI&hh=090&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=090&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    I need to check the SREF. 😀

      1. Clearly there are TIMING ISSUES with these models.

        Main convection could be Monday or Tueasday or both.
        The current models don’t show much action for Wednesday.

  12. Even DT is real about the possible threat:

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/t1.0-9/10460509_715794615134466_7898526063032090777_n.jpg

    Wxrisk.com
    12 hrs ·
    *** ABOUT SEVERE WX THREAT FOR MONDAY NIGHT … TUESDAY … TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC**
    As I am sure many of you have heard by now… SPC- the storm prediction center which is part of the national weather service -has issued an extended but quite important threat for a POSSIBLE significant severe weather event … POSSIBLE …. for much of the Middle Atlantic region on Tuesday, July 15.
    The last two days SPC the following maps showing the areas of significant severe weather threat valid for JULY 14-15. There are several significant factors would support a severe weather event for the entire East Coast as well as the Appalachians mtns . Sunday will see Max temperatures in the mid 90s over most of North Carolina Virginia Southeast Ohio most West Virginia Eastern Kentucky and Upper 80s from Philly to BOS.
    On Tuesday temperatures will be very close to the same south of the Pennsylvania Maryland State line — the infamous Mason Dixon Like as the cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon evening. It appears at this time that the front will be coming across the mountains into the Middle Atlantic states during the maximum heating of the afternoon early evening
    . The CAPE values from Philly to SC and east of the mountains look to be particularly high… iIn some places over 3000 j/kg on the 12z Friday afternoon European model. The LI’s …LIFTED INDEX appearto be decent and the low and mid level winds appear to be pretty strong with a lot a sheer.
    One thing that does not seem to be ideal is the shape or the position of the Upper Level TROUGH. It is this huge and deep trough moving through the Great Lakes that some meteorologists and media outlets have described as they PV or Polar Vortex. I understand why they using that term because this upper level Low and massive trough is sooooo deep that unusual for the middle of July… But this feature is not a PV. But that is immaterial to my main point.
    KEY POINT **** in Looking at the set up for next Tuesday the one thing to keep in mind is that… as of right now .. all the Model data show the massive trough that moves through the Midwest and into the northeast … stays still POSITIVELY tilted when it comes through the East coast. This does not mean there will be no severe weather risk .. there will certainly will be. . BUT experience shows that having a negatively tilted Upper trough is big Piece that is needed to get serious severe weather threats in the Middle Atlantic.
    DT

  13. Leaning a bit closer to GFS’s timing. It’s been better with these types of events.

    Anybody going to Salem Willows for the seafood festival today? I’m going up there late afternoon and evening. Fireworks tonight to cap off the event.

  14. huh What?

    12Z CMC now has no action on Monday and has action Tuesday AND Wednesday.
    Talk about model divergence? What gives????
    This is crazy!!

    1. Just models having trouble with timing of details. 🙂 Happens every time. 🙂

      1. I suppose, but it’s pretty frustrating. I for one, like to know
        what is going to happen. I don’t like this maybe, maybe not, I dunno crap, which is what we always get. 😀

        On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday there will be
        WEATHER, WHETHER we LIKE it or NOT. 😆

  15. Should I be worried that I’m still the only forecaster going for a mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon? 😛

    1. I think I got my dates mixed up. So HOW could I ever know what it’s to do on what date?)!@(#(*()!@*#()!@#**!@(#*(*
      😆

  18. From NWS:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    1 min ·
    There is the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Mon into Tue. Heavy rainfall may also bring a localized flash flood threat.

  19. Old Salty looking at the run of the GFS I will be right where this model thinks the highest EHI Values will be on Monday and there in that 3 to 4 territory.

  20. At the very least I think were all going to see some heavy downpours. Now trying to figure out the strength of the thunderstorms and the timing of the front.

  21. Here is the 12z NAM for Monday
    EHI
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=060

    Lift
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=LI&hh=060&map=na&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CAPE
    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=060&map=na&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=nam&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

  22. JJ for monitoring thunderstorm potential:

    http://www.mokanscan.net/svrindicies.html

    Particularly the EHI:

    Energy Helicity Index (EHI) EHI Measurement
    What it Means

    2 or less Tornadic Activity is quite unlikely.
    2 to 2.4 Isolated/weak tornadoes could occur.
    2.5 to 2.9 Isolated strong tornadoes are possible.
    3 to 3.9 A few strong/long-track tornadoes could occur.
    4 or greater Likelihood of strong/long-track tornadoes is very high.

  24. Here are the 12Z CMC instability parameters.
    This is CLEARLY for TUESDAY!!

    CAPE

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    LI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=LI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EHI

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=078&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=078&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    That’s 2-3 in our area, which means tornadoes are possible.

  25. WHAT are we to believe?????????????
    It’s now Saturday afternoon and NO ONE can tells us IF the convection
    is for Monday or Tuesday OR BOTH!!

    YIKES!!!!!!

  27. Thanks tk, all I’m hearing is about the polar vortex, I see nothing but 80 degrees for highs. It’s not winter lol 🙂

    1. It’s ridiculous. Some of my fellow mets are again very disappointed in the irresponsible reporting going on. It’s NOT a “polar vortex”. It’s a closed off low, basically part of a slightly anomalous deeper than average trough in the Summer, induced by an amplified ridge to the west which was induced by the extratropical remains of a super typhoon from the Pacific. It happens – not all the time but it does happen.

      And basically every day will be 80+ except the obvious cool spots, and maybe one day (around Thursday) when what is left of the core of the cool air moves eastward the temps may hang in the 70s everywhere.

  28. Did I miss the quiz answer? If I got it wrong, I will never be able to face Tom again. Of course I haven’t faced him yet but……

  30. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    This morning’s closest approach of the moon to Earth is called____
    A. Apogee
    B. Aphelion
    C. Perigee
    D. Perihelion

    The correct answer is C, Perigee.

    1. Thank you longshot. Tom gave us a great explanation of the perigee and apogee a couple of years ago. I still have it saved. I sorry he missed the quiz but hope he is having a wonderful time

  31. TK, i hope u didnt waste ur time going to the fireworks in north attleboro. We just got home frim there. Worst show ever. Very disappointed in my town 🙁

    2. I never went to any last night (Friday).
      Tonight (Saturday) I was at Salem Willows and saw a nice show off a barge over the water. Beautiful night there. 🙂

  32. From what ive been hearing around the town, the change in venue for the carnival in north attleboro has been a disaster

    1. Oh no Ace. We just got back today from vacation so we didn’t see them. My daughter is going to Kid’s day this pm.

  33. You guys should have taking the ride down to Plymouth they usually put on a great display but very crowded.

    1. I knew theirs was tonight but had decided on Salem a while ago for the Seafood Festival. 🙂

  34. Good morning.

    Another beautiful day on tap.

    Just read the complete write up from the NWS.
    They indicated that the GFS has come around to the slower solution of
    the Euro. Expecting showers and T-storms from late Sunday through Wednesday;

    Graphic:

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xpa1/t1.0-9/10502245_650111055083269_6971684067790798712_n.png

    US National Weather Service Boston MA

    One more day of dry/warm weather for most of Southern New England. The exception will be across Western MA/CT where afternoon thunderstorms are possible. Otherwise an unsettled & wet weather pattern develops tonight with scattered showers & thunderstorms & continues into Wed. Heavy downpours with localized flash flooding & thunderstorms with strong winds are possible during this time. Please help us spread the word!

    1. Hmmm

      Here is the 06Z GFS total rain:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_108_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=precip_ptot&fhr=108&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140713+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=54

      Here is the CMC total about 2 inches:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=108&lang=en&map=na

      Here is the Euro, about 2-3 inches

      http://i.imgur.com/QQU7wYD.png?1

  35. Significant tornado parameters for Mid day Tuesday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f057.gif

    From NWS for Tuesday:

    COULD SEE STRONG AND PERHAPS SEVERE
    WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN
    THREATS. AS DEWPOINTS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S…CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPIN-UP IN THIS SOMEWHAT TROPICAL AIRMASS AS WELL AS 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 20-25KTS. KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CAN CHANGE.

    If there is any question, quick spin up => TORNADO.

  36. The last time the GFS came around to the Euro they both ended up being wrong. 🙂

    1. ALL this predicted rain just feels like hype. Do you think we get over
      2 inches of rain? 😀

      1. Somebody will get a healthy amount, but I just don’t think it’s going to be widespread. Tropical.

  38. 12z NAM show frequent breaks in precip, but also shows heaviest precip overnight Tuesday into Wednesday AM.

  39. Those quick tornado spin ups are usually EF 0 EF 1. Even if SNE is not in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow I would not be surprised if the SPC has a good chunk of the region in a 2% tornado chance.

  40. TK – Any chance we can squeeze one more winter season out of Barry and/or Harvey?

    I am sure that I speak for everyone here that it is going to be very sad when they retire. Sooner rather than later? 🙁

  41. For the talk of Harvey and Barry. Nothin has been talked about Harvey retiring. I have heard barry Burbank is looking to become part of the UMass Lowell department

    1. That meteogram was for boston. Area data available now

      CAPE fpr Tuesday

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=CAPE&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      LI

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=LI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      EHI

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=054&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      This supports what NWS and SPC are saying.

  43. Well, there’s a change. The SPC shifted their Severe RISK significantly Eastward for
    Tuesday:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1405274176059

    THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED NWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE 35-40 KTS OF SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT BY AFTN AND HEATING OF LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA. BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE DEPICT SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
    WEAK SFC LOW THAT MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE TSTM.

    OK, IF the SPC mentions the T word, I guess it’s time to listen.

      1. JOhn, TK is the one you should be asking, however, I’ll give
        an opinion and that is ALL that it is.

        Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast. Some models
        say later in the day than others. Looking at the 18Z NAM
        simulated radar reflectivity, it keeps rain away from Canobie Lake Park until late tomorrow evening, while it brings rain to most of MA early in the afternoon. I’t’s really close.

        As long as you don’t pay to get into the park, go for it.
        IF you pay to get in, you “may” be forced to leave before you
        get your money’s worth. Tough call.

        I’d go for it, but I’m adventurous. 😀

        1. Thanks oldsalty as the question was for you. My wife and son with some other people were planning on tomorrow. It’s a long ride and yes they do pay$30 something dollars to get in. I’m passing as I’ve spent enough Money already this week but we had fun. Thank you.

  47. Showers just moved into Conway area. We went to story land after 3pm so to motor is free.

  48. Last 2 days here have been mostly sunny, near 82F with dewpoints around 73F. The night-time lows run around 75F.

    Yesterday morning around 6am, a thin line of storms bubbled up over Pamlico Sound and sagged SE over the island to deliver a quick drenching.

    Headed to check out Cape Hatteras the next few days and it looks like we will also be seeing showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday.

    If anyone likes the feeling of being away from it all and a tropical climate, likes the ocean, etc, this is a great vacation spot. I am very happy to have experienced Ocracoke Island. With good luck and fortune, perhaps an April visit in the future.

    1. It sounds like a dream vacation. I’d love being away from it all but in cooler temps. Thank you for sharing. We miss you

      2. Thanks Vicki and OS ! Always good to catch up with everyone here !

        I am missing the cooler nights, in particular.

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