The Week Ahead

132 Comments

12:03AM

A frontal system will sit over the region Monday through early Wednesday, finally scooting eastward and offshore during Wednesday. This front separates tropical air flowing up from the south ahead of it from cooler and drier air behind it, including some unseasonably cool air that will be moving southward out of Canada into the upper Midwest. This air will arrive in modified form later Wednesday into Thursday, but before that we’ll have to deal with occasional downpours and thunderstorms. Though widespread severe weather is not likely, some individual thunderstorms could be strong to severe with anything ranging from flash flooding to hail to damaging wind. Again this activity should not be widespread, but all should keep up to date on conditions over the next few days.

Fair weather should arrive by late Wednesday and especially Thursday into late week, with a gradual warming trend following the cool shot. By later next weekend, we may be back into another unsettled weather system with clouds and a shower threat.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably to mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong. Muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any storms may be strong. Muggy. Highs 78-85. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers / PM breaking clouds. Low 64. High 76.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 79.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 66. High 82.

132 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  5. OS – saw and listened to your Syndicate of Song link…..I had not heard that song in ages and loved the memories. Hey Little Girl (I think was title) was also one of my favorites. Thank you!

    1. Thank you. Hey Little Girl was the one I was going to post, but came across
      that one while searching for a better copy.

      😀

  6. Good morning.

    Thank you for the update TK and have a great trip JJ.

    As for the weather…. I still think that we were subjected to much HYPE (TK and BB excepted). I am NOT impressed at this point. Tons of cloudiness around sprouting
    a few sprinkles. Without some sunshine, I don’t see us having any bad storms, just garden variety still with downpours.

    SPC still has slight risk of severe covering ALL of CT and RI and a good chunk of MA,
    But does NOT include Boston.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.gif?1405341553183

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif?1405341565654

    They should be UPDATING that shortly, so we shall see what changes there are
    if any at all.

    1. SMALL LOOPING HODOGRAPHS…AMPLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT LIFT COULD HELP A FEW STORMS ACQUIRE ROTATION…WITH A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO POSSIBLE AND/OR ENHANCED WIND
      GUSTS WITH SMALL BOWS. THE GENERALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP HAIL MAINLY SMALL.

  7. Ought Oh…
    Sunshine breaking out here.

    Looking over the charts this morning, looks like ample instability for storms
    today AND tomorrow.

    We’ll just have to wait and see IF any become severe.

    1. SPC update out. 15% risk area remains unchanged. They did, however, remove
      any tornado wording out of the discussion (unless I missed it). 😀

  8. Todd’s “futurecast” this morning on BZ did not show any rain or storms in eastern sections until late tues and into the day wed. These computer model futurecasts are always correct right? 😉

    1. 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

  10. BRIGHT BLUE SKY now. Frankly, I am REALLY surprised at that. REALLY!!

    Now, what does this mean? CAPEs will go through the roof!

    NOTHING on radar so far.

    We shall see, but keep an eye to the SKY or the RADAR SCREENS! 😀

  11. John you probably could have made it to Canobie Lake Park with no problems.

    Look at the latest Taunton NWS discussion:

    LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS /HRRR AND RAP13/ ALONG WITH
    THE GLOBAL 00Z ECMWF DELAY NEW CONVECTION ENTERING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND POSSIBLY 00Z THIS EVENING. THUS WE WILL ADJUST FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS LATER TREND. AS A RESULT MUCH OF TODAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE DRY WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WEST AND THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

    1. One day ahead and these guys CAN’T get it right. In this day and age, that’s
      pretty Pathetic.

      1. Pretty funny with all of the HYPE about showers and thunderstorms, yadda yadda yadda. 😀 😀 😆

        Getty pretty cloudy out here. Much cumulus, but without much
        height to speak of…..

      2. Upton office seems to think there will be much convection
        this afternoon.

        Does anyone know anything??

        I look out the window and see a fine day out there.
        Pretty funny, if you ask me.

        And poor John missed out on a nice family day
        at Canobie Lake Park because no one could get a forecast
        correct. 😀

    1. nice Coastal – very happy for you and hope you enjoy every second!! Pictures please ….. 😉

    1. That trajectory would take the convection out across SE MA pretty well
      to the SE of Boston. We shall see what else, if anything, develops.

      😀

      1. That sounds just about right. Boston has for the most part been the convection shield. Either going to the north and west or to the south

    1. Oh Good, the caption didn’t appear with the photo.

      For BONUS points, can you tell me what this is? No cheating. 😀

        1. A SCHOOL of ANCHOVIES In California. 😀
          HONEST. Looking closely at the edge of the darkness.

          2. Oh good heavens….I should have known it was a school of small fish. We see that often even at Humarock. Ohhhhhhh my mind is gone……..totally I’m afraid.

  20. Some ENERGY HELICITY INDEX RUNS FROM VARIOUS MODELS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVEVENING:

    CMC-GDPS / Explorer

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    CMC-RDPS / Explorer

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=030

    NAM

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=12&stn=EHI&hh=030&map=qc&stn2=EHI&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&hh2=030&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=033

    1. As a reminder, here is what the EHI means:

      Energy Helicity Index (EHI) EHI Measurement What it Means

      2 or less Tornadic Activity is quite unlikely. <B<
      2 to 2.4 Isolated/weak tornadoes could occur.
      2.5 to 2.9 Isolated strong tornadoes are possible.
      3 to 3.9 A few strong/long-track tornadoes could occur.
      4 or greater Likelihood of strong/long-track tornadoes is very high.

      Base only on this index, then we would expect the liklihood of at least a few tornadoes in the region tomorrow, however, this index does NOT necessarily
      translate to reality. It is just another tool as many other indices are used
      to predict tornadoes. HOWEVER, it HAS my Attention.

      1. Significant tornado ingredients for tomorrow:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014071409/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033.gif

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014071409/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014071409/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f039.gif

        Helicity

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014071409/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f036.gif

        I am wondering IF someplace in NE gets a tornado watch
        tomorrow???

        1. Not so sure OS. I figured today would be the day since there was more sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. After today, the sun might not appear till Thursday. Today was the day IMO

        2. All of these various severe weather values and parameters seem good up till the actual day, then it’s here’s the values for tomorrow, tomorrow something will happen. Seems to be the trend. We shall see! It sure is soupy out there today

          1. Oh Yeah for sure. I just found them interesting.
            We shall see what gives. IF you look at those
            maps, CAPES are off the chart tomorrow compared to today.

            I don’t believe ANY forecast until it verifies.
            We’ve been watching this long enough to know
            NO forecast can be totally trusted, ESPECIALLY with volatile conditions. 😀

            Still, tomorrow “could” get quite interesting.

  21. Fair amount of sun this morning but overcast now………ugh, I think the clouds are spoiling the storms

  22. Radar starting to light up to our south and west but storms and even showers seem to weaken or disappear as they approach Hartford. We may get an isolated shower this evening but that appears to be it.

    1. I think we get MORE than an isolated shower. NOT that there will be severe
      weather this evening, but I think it gets off and on wet with rumbles of thunder. We shall see. Tomorrow is the DAY of concern.

      1. Of course, cuz its my golf day, lol.

        I’m hopeful we get more than an isolated shower for my lawn’s sake, but its been a real struggle getting any meaningful precip in here

  24. Sunshine breaking out here again. I don’t know IF this means drier air at mid levels
    to KILL convection OR fuel to Aide convection. Will monitor radar to see
    which it is. 😀

    1. Not sure but I did just get a flash flood alert for this area expiring on the 16th. 3:20 today till the. 16th.

    2. Coastal,

      IF one is to believe the 12Z NAM, UP in the North Country of NH, pretty heavy rain commencing about 6AM and continuing virtually ALL day. As far as big thunderstorms? I dunno up there. Down here we go from about Noon to 6 or 7PM and then a break before very late at night Early Wednesday we get
      another batch before finally clearing out of here.

      1. Coastal, 18Z NAM holds off on the heavy rain up there until
        about 10Z or around 11AM and then continues it from there.

    1. The Northern extant of this convection looks to skirt or “just” hit Boston.
      We shall see. 😀

  28. Cloud layer broke up somewhat. Blue sky with a few building clouds – not a whole lot of height….wishful thinking on my part

    1. ACE, “should” be getting really dark to your West and SouthWest.

      Convection is FAST approaching you.

      1. Darkest I saw the sky was this morning driving into work. I see those storms coming this way on radar. Within the next half hour to an hour they will be here 🙂

  32. It’s important to remind ourselves of the variability of convective activity. These astronomical rainfall total forecasts do not mean everyone sees those amounts.

    1. Amen.

      The way the NWS words these things, it’s like armageddon

      Geez, we’re going to get some rain. Big Deal. Give me a break!

  33. Looks like a low severe weather threat for us here in eastern southern New England for the next few days. Probably a few rounds of what we’ll be seeing for these next couple hours, scattered showers with embedded tropical downpours and some thunder, but nothing too severe. Further west could see some stronger storms.

    1. Fine with me. I’m going to a concert tomorrow night under a tent by Boston Harbor. 🙂

      2. TK, IF some of these models are correct, it looks like
        there might just be a break in the action from early
        tomorrow evening until very late at night or very early on Wednesday. DO you agree with those?

        1. Have fun TK 🙂

          The NWS has expanded the flash flood watch to include everywhere except the Cape and Islands. It’s certainly plenty humid out there!

    2. I agree for this evening and overnight. Not so sure about tomorrow afternoon.
      I guess we’ll know more later. Hope you are correct. 😀

  35. Just got down to Williamsburg, VA. Its is hot with temps in the upper 90s. It looks like tomorrow evening could see some strong to locally severe storms down where I am tomorrow. I can’t wait till the front passes as temps will be in the mid 80s the rest of the week here.

    1. Good news. Enjoy!!

      While you are there, you must take in Virginia Beach. Surf some of those
      waves for the rest of us.

      Be careful of Storms.

      The day we arrived in Virgina Beach (August 1988) we had one heck of a thunderstorm. It rained so hard, there was more than 1 foot of water on the main roadway. About 2 miles from us, an F2 TORNADO touched down. It damaged the roof off a School, which we witnessed the next day.

      1. City of Virginia Beach

        849 OCT 25, 1967 3 17:00 0 0 1 36.85 -075.97 00.00 0 810
        558 JLY 27, 1972 1 13:17 0 2 1 36.85 -075.98 00.00 0 810
        798 OCT 2, 1977 11 17:00 0 0 ? 36.83 -076.13 00.00 0 810
        562 JLY 4, 1981 4 6:00 0 0 1 36.85 -075.98 00.00 0 810
        416 AUG 3, 1988 2 17:47 0 0 2 36.85 -075.98 00.00 0 810
        935 AUG 15, 1992 2 5:50 0 0 0 36.58 -075.93 00.00 0 810
        949 AUG 6, 1993 25 13:45 0 0 1 36.85 -075.98 00.00 0 810
        442 JLY 24, 2000 8 11:59 0 0 0 36.65 -076.03 36.65 -076.03 810
        625 AUG 8, 2003 18 12:48 0 0 0 36.80 -076.10 36.80 -076.10 810
        320 JLY 14, 2005 18 12:45 0 0 0 36.78 -076.03 36.78 -076.03 810
        345252 AUG 27, 2011 38 6:49 0 0 0 36.74 -075.94 36.74 -075.94 810

        1. Tornado Summary
          Date (y/m/d) Time Fujita Fatalities Injuries Width Length Damage Crop Loss Touchdown Lat/Lon Liftoff Lat/Lon SPC # State #
          1988-08-03 17:47:00 3 2 0 0 50 0.2 $50K-$500K – 36.85 / -75.98 – / – 416 2
          Affected States Affected Counties
          Virginia Virginia Beach

  36. Boston is about to get hit with a Mother of a downpour. Not sure how much lightening
    is with this system. Getting mighty DARK!

  43. What we are seeing from Arthur ……

    Ocracoke Island and now here in Cape Hatteras, it is very easy to see the amount of branches and trees that came down. A few yards, still untouched, are loaded with downed stuff. Everyone else has wrapped up branches, etc waiting for pickup. Some have plenty of firewood for when it eventually cools off down here, though I’m having trouble believing that could ever happen.

    But, in Cape Hatteras, the campground workers told us of how Pamlico Sound surged 5 ft deep across Rte. 12, through the campground and out towards the ocean. The oceanside has high dunes to give them a chance, but there’s no protection on the west side of the Outer Banks.

    The campground pool, 3 ft above ground, had fish in it by the time the storm passed. I could easily see the 5 ft surge above rt. 12 by looking at a seaweed line above the road on the dunes that extended for miles. Neat stuff.

  45. 18Z CMC instability data from the CMC-RDPS / Explorer, which is 10KM resolution.

    CAPE, 3,000 joules right around Boston

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=CAPE&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=CAPE&hh2=030&fixhh=1&hh=027

    Lifted Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=LI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Energy Helicity Index

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&stn2=EHI&hh2=027&fixhh=1&hh=024

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=EHI&hh=027&map=qc&stn2=LI&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=027&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    We need to watch tomorrow for sure. Not saying anything bad will happen, but
    there is “some” potential.

  47. NWS has some strongly worded language regarding tomorrow:

    MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GT LAKES WITH INCREASING SW SHEAR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

  49. My son has to go out to the ct river area including greenfield.
    I told him to reschedule but he cant. So I tolf him to watch the radard anf waringdand to be mindful of possible shelters.
    dont like that he is going…I

  51. I know it isn’t a fair question but here I go…….is there any indication of the weather late Saturday afternoon. Its the family reunion day and the numbers attending are growing. Thank you

      1. Deep sigh of relief. Thank you TK. Clouds will actually help shade the deck so we can have everyone outside.

  52. The cooler summer temps haven’t just been a North American phenomenon. The Ural region has seen some accumulating snow. The link below is from this weekend’s snow:

    http://rt.com/news/172468-freaky-snow-urals-siberia/

    The Ural mountains are the closest in age and shape to our Appalachians. Also, climatically, they’re akin to our mountains in Northern New England.

    1. Wow. I would love it if that were to happen here……yes, I am pathetic but darned wouldn’t that be amazing.

  54. Just reading the hazardous weather outlook for up there tomorrow from the NWS out of Taunton they are indicating the possiblity of an isolated tornado although heavy rain and strong wind gusts are the primary threats with the storms tomorrow.

  55. Headed out for dinner around 5:30 the sky looked like it was going to open up but nothing but a sprinkle as that seems to be the case down here missing all of the storms .

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